• AR-Sen: There seems to be a competition among Arkansas Republican Senate candidates to see who can make the biggest ass of himself. It was businessman Curtis Coleman's turn this time; yesterday, in reference to southeast Arkansas (where most of the state's African-American population is), he said you "might as well get a visa and shots" before heading down there. Not content to stop digging his own hole, today he explained that what he meant was "accentuate or maybe even celebrate the enormous diversity we have in Arkansas.... I love Southeast Arkansas and meant it only as a metaphor." Oh, well, if it's only a metaphor, I guess that makes it OK.
• DE-Sen: After Rep. Mike Castle made an inartful comment a few days ago ("They've asked me to run for Senate as a Republican. I don't know if I'm going to do that."), he went ahead and clarified that he isn't intending to switch parties.
• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio picked up a potentially useful endorsement in the GOP Senate primary: Rep. Jeff Miller, who represents FL-01 in the dark-red Panhandle, an area of the state where Rubio is little known so far but where his hard-right conservatism is likely to play well. Miller endorsed Charlie Crist in the 2006 governor's primary.
• MO-Sen: Here's another minor tea leaf that former Treasurer Sarah Steelman won't be getting into the Senate primary: prominent Missouri political operative Gregg Keller, who was reportedly set to work for Steelman, instead went to Connecticut to manage Tom Foley's CT-Sen campaign.
• NC-Sen: Here's some good news out of North Carolina: former state Senator and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham seems to be moving to get into the Senate race for the Dems. Cunningham described his efforts to put together a campaign in a post to his Facebook supporters group.
• NH-Sen: With establishment figures dithering on whether to get into the GOP Senate primary, businessman Fred Tausch is jumping into the void, launching a TV spot promoting his fiscal-discipline advocacy group, STEWARD of Prosperity. He says he's interested in the Senate race, although not ready to publicly declare.
• VT-Sen: It wasn't a done deal that 69-year-old Pat Leahy would be back for another term in the Senate, but he confirmed yesterday he'll be back for a seventh term.
• AZ-Gov: Former Democratic state party chair and 2006 Senate candidate Jim Pederson said today that he won't run for Arizona governor, despite earlier statements of his interest. This leaves AG Terry Goddard (who has said he "intends" to run) with a pretty clear shot at the Dem nomination; it remains unclear if Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, armpit-deep in a frustrating fight with her GOP-held legislature, will run for a full term.
• CA-Gov: Rep. Loretta Sanchez announced she won't be running for Governor but will seek another term in the House; she naturally became a topic of conversation with LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's exit from the race, leaving the Dem field without a SoCal, Hispanic, or female candidate. On the GOP side, Rep. John Campbell's defection from the Steve Poizner camp to the Meg Whitman camp was just the tip of the iceberg: three state legislators and a county chair just flipped.
• SC-Gov: State Rep. Nikki Haley has been the subject of breathless conservative hype over the past few months as the anti-spending candidate to replace Mark Sanford (and also Sanford's preferred choice for the job, if you read the tea leaves). See this pre-Sanford-implosion Politico piece from earlier this week to see what I mean. But with revelations that Sanford hasn't been able to keep it in his pants or on this continent (a snap SUSA poll finds 60% of state residents think he should resign, with only 34% saying stay in office), Haley has moved to distance herself from Sanford, scrubbing all traces of him from her website where he was once prominently featured. (J)
• UT-Gov: Soon-to-be Gov. Gary Herbert looks like he won't have a free ride at the nominating convention in the 2010 special election. Univ. of Utah professor Kirk Jowers, who reportedly had been offered the role as Herbert's Lt. Gov., is the subject of a draft movement and may challenge Herbert for the top job instead -- with Josh Romney (son of Mitt) as his LG. Rep. Jason Chaffetz appears to be in their corner.
• ID-01: Idaho pollster Greg Smith tested the approvals of local politicians, and Idahoans just like their politicians, gosh darn it, even that Demmycrat Walt Minnick (whose approval is 47/20, good news heading into a potentially very tough re-election). Governor Butch Otter has the most troublesome numbers, and even he's at 47/35.
• IL-07: Here's a potential open seat, although at D+35, not one we're going to have to sweat very hard. Rep. Danny Davis, who had been vaguely associated with the IL-Sen primary, now looks to be taking concrete steps toward running for President of the Cook County Board, forming an exploratory committee. Davis was runner-up in that race three years ago. This time, he says he has a poll giving him a 7-point lead over county commissioner Forrest Claypool, who was presumptive frontrunner but pulled out of the race last week. With over 5 million constituents, it seems like a pretty good gig.
• NY-23: New York county Democratic leaders set an initial timeline for finding a nominee for the upcoming special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. July 17 is the deadline for declaring interest.
• PA-03: With no GOPer left to challenge freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, Elaine Surma formed an exploratory committee to consider a bid. With no elective track record, she's a senior agent with the state Attorney General's office.
• PA-15: Bethlehem mayor John Callahan's seeming change of heart about running against Rep. Charlie Dent comes after having been called by Joe Biden last week with promises of White House support in the race.
• VA-02, VA-05: Roll Call looks at the prospects for the Virginia freshmen. Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode is apparently close to making a decision on whether to try to wrest the 5th back from Rep. Tom Perriello, with state Del. Rob Bell or state Sen. Rob Hurt as backup plans. In the 2nd, none of the local elected GOP officials seem to be moving toward the race, and the GOP field is more a hodge-podge of various businessmen/veterans: Chuck Smith, Ed Maulbeck, Ben Loyola, and possibly Scott Rigell.
• FL-Sen: Here's a pretty serious repudiation of Charlie Crist by the GOP party faithful. At a county party straw poll in Pasco County (Tampa exurbs, one county removed from Crist's Pinellas County home), Marco Rubio beat Crist 73 to 9. Luckily for Crist, the primary electorate includes a much broader sample than the party's diehard activist base who actually show up for meetings... but this shows just how badly things are for him with the base.
• IL-Sen: Bad news for AG Lisa Madigan, whose list of demands for a Senate race include an Obama endorsement, a cleared field, and no brown M&Ms at the catering table: Barack Obama announced that he wouldn't be endorsing anyone in the Senate race. Good news for Roland Burris, on the other hand: a state prosecutor has decided that Burris won't face perjury charges over his vague statements to the state legislature about his appointment to the Senate by disgraced former governor Rod Blagojevich.
• KY-Sen: SoS Trey Grayson has decided to start fundraising like a madman in the coming weeks, scheduling eight more events before the end of the fundraising quarter in June. Grayson opened his exploratory committee on May 6, so he has had only half-a-quarter in which to try to top Jim Bunning.
• MN-Sen: The FEC released two draft opinions that, if enacted by the full commission, will prevent Norm Coleman from tapping his campaign funds for his legal defense fees associated with his FBI investigation. (This doesn't affect the costs of paying for the recount, which are paid in part by the Coleman Minnesota Recount Committee instead.)
• CA-Gov: Has anyone noticed that LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who everyone assumes is running for Governor, hasn't taken any steps toward running for Governor? The folks at Calitics have noticed, and the fact that Villaraigosa (whose popularity in LA seems to be faltering) just took over the 2nd VP role for the US Conference of Mayors (which puts him on track to become the organization's president in 2011) is another tea leaf that he won't run. If he doesn't run, that just leaves an all-Bay Area clash between old (Jerry Brown) and new (Gavin Newsom) for the Dem nod.
• MN-Gov: GOP state Rep. Paul Kohls from Minneapolis's western exurbs has announced his candidacy for the Minnesota governor's race. He joins former GOP state Rep. Bill Haas as official candidates, but at least a dozen more people seem intent on entering the race.
• FL-15: Rep. Bill Posey got nothing but scorn when he aligned himself with the most tinfoil elements of the GOP in introducing his birther legislation, but he's just ratcheting up the crazy. Posey picked up four more co-sponsors (Culberson, Carter, Neugebauer, and Campbell). Also, while being interviewed on WorldNetDaily's radio show about the bill, Posey outright accused Barack Obama of hiding something and, for good measure, tried launching a feud with Rachel Maddow.
• NM-01: Jon Barela, a former vice-chair of the New Mexico GOP and former head of the Albuquerque Hispano Chamber of Commerce, officially announced his candidacy against Rep. Martin Heinrich. He did so with the endorsement of 2008 candidate Sheriff Darren White. While it's now a D+5 district, it's almost half Latino, so Barela could make some noise if he gets some traction in the Latino community.
• OH-08: Speaker Minority leader John Boehner got a break: his would-be primary challenger, iconoclastic Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones, has opted not to get in the race. This frees Boehner up to spend more of summer of 2010 fundraising for other House candidates, or at least working on his tan.
• VA-05: Very little has been happening in VA-05 while everyone waits to see whether ex-Rep. Virgil Goode will try to get his old job back from Rep. Tom Perriello in this GOP-leaning district in rural Virginia. One GOPer isn't waiting, though: Cordel Faulk is publicly considering the race. Faulk hasn't held office, but he has an interesting job; he's the spokesman for Charlottesville-based professor and pundit Larry Sabato.
• NY-St. Senate: With the New York State Senate collapsed into a 31-31 tie, turncoat Dem (and, for now, Senate president and thus acting Lt. Gov.) Pedro Espada Jr. has come up with a rather novel legal theory in the absence of any constitutional clarification: he gets two votes, one ordinary vote as Senator and one tie-breaker vote as LG. Of course, nobody else seems to think this, and other theories are popping up as to who might get a tie-breaking vote (Former LG and current Gov. David Paterson? Assembly speaker Sheldon Silver?) if the Senators can't figure out how to break the deadlock themselves. Meanwhile, a likely primary challenger to Espada has already popped up: Haile Rivera, an activist and ally of city councilor Eric Gioia who had previously been planning his own city council run this year.
Republicans appear to have another repeat candidate in 2010, as former Rep. Virgil Goode (R-Va.) has filed to reclaim the seat he lost in November.
Goode filed Wednesday with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) - a move that allows him to raise money for the race - but he has not publicly said what his 2010 plans are. Regardless, the race is sure to be a top GOP target.
Former Reps. Bill Sali (R-Idaho) and Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) have also filed to run for the seats they lost in 2008. While Chabot is all-in, Sali has not officially stated whether he will follow through with the campaign.
As the article says, filing a statement of candidacy may just be a keeping-the-door-open move. But Goode seems to have at least one foot through the portcullis. Last month, he was seen staging absurd events where he was handing out giant checks to institutions which received earmarks in the most recent omnibus spending bill, even though he's of course no longer in Congress and didn't vote on the legislation which disburses this money!
So this makes me feel there are better-than-even odds that Goode will pull the trigger on a rematch. And personally, I think Perriello's better off going up against a retread rather than a fresh face.
Monday is a big day in Virginia's 5th Congressional district, as the results of the race between incumbent, Republican Virgil Goode and democratic, challenger Tom Perriello will be certified by the Virginia Board of Elections.
According to the State Board of Elections, with over 316,679 ballots counted, Perriello holds a 745 vote advantage in the race. That amounts to about a quarter of one percent, meaning it is well within the threshold necessary for a recount.
Goode's team has told CBS 9 that they will seek a recount.
I'd be really surprised if a recount changed the result, given that there haven't been reports of the kind of widespread problems which might lead a reasonable soul to question the results. And while the margin is similar to Norm Coleman's on election night, the total number of votes cast in this race is not even a ninth of the number in MN-Sen, so the odds of a sufficient shift are far lower.
Important update: VA BOE repots a HUGE jump in Tom Perriello's lead this afternoon from 30 votes to 834 votes. Goode has picked up a few votes here and there in Campbell and Pittsylvania County since, bringing Tom Perriello from +834 to his current total.
Firstly, get comfy. We are winning this election, but I get the feeling this battle will take days, if not weeks to settle.
Secondly, progressives should be both eager and proud about working to win this race. Tom Perriello is a legitimate progressive phenomenon with a record of diplomatic work in conflict zones like Darfur and Afghanistan, and a natural ability to communicate to "real Virginians." (not you commie types in NoVA!)
Perriello has made such an impression in VA-05 that he is now leading a 6-term Republican incumbent in an R+6 district by 30 votes with 100% reported.
Here's whats happened in VA-05, and what we can expect in the coming days...
I'm no longer a volunteer for the Perriello campaign--I'm back at school four hundred miles away. But I'm still phonebanking for Tom when I can, and I thought I'd take a moment to make the case for giving Tom a small last-minute contribution to help him send Virgil Goode back to Rocky Mount.
Tom Perriello is one of my favorite congressional candidates in the country. He's got a amazing background, he's helped take down Liberian dictator Charles Taylor, was a major player in the peace and reconciliation process in Sierra Leone, helped found the online grassroots people-powered humanitarian movement Avaaz.org and many other things. Now he's running against Virgil Goode, a proud bigot and one of the worst if not the worst member of Congress. And he's been running some great ads created by the best ad firm in the country (IMO) Eichenbaum & Associates
Here is another great ad he's running
And what's Goode running ads about? That Tom used to have a scary beard.
That's right. Yesterday at a debate between Rep. Virgil Goode of Virgina's 5th district and his Democratic challenger Tom Perriello Goode said this
"And they want me out of Congress, the liberal Democrats want me out. And they want me out because I'm a conservative voice, if we can silence that person that's exactly what we want, we want more mushers up here in Congress that won't speak out and stand out. They want a Obamajority in this country, Tom is on the Obamajority list for the US House of Representatives, they want to get him in there because they know he is going to be voting with them. They want to control the White House, 60 votes in the US Senate and a strong majority in the US House of Representatives."
Goode is famous for using bogeymen to scare people, he attacked Rep. Keith Ellison for being a Muslim and repeated tall tales about China that even Dick Cheney said where false.
Now he's found a new bogeymen. He's attacking the Obamajority, an ActBlue page started by a 14 year old blogger--me.
Tom Perriello continued his impressive fundraising in rural Virginia last quarter, raising over $340,000 last quarter and now with over $500k Cash on Hand. With this support, Perriello has now been made a top-tier race against the bigoted Virgil Goode by the DCCC.
What is even more impressive is how his money comes from individuals from the entire district (the size of New Jersey), whereas much of Goode's money comes from PAC's and corporate lobbyists.
I want to give yall a quick update on VA-05.
