Lately there has been a lot of Debate over the number of Democratic Congressional Districts that Democrats could gerrymander out of the state of Michigan if they had complete control (right now they hold the Governorship and State House. They stand a good chance at taking control of the State Senate while the Governor's race is a tossup). A few people, namely IHateBush, have said that it is possible to succesfully draw a map that would yield 12 Democratic seats and only 2 Republican seats. I've been trying for several weeks to draw a 12-2 map, meanwhile protecting endangered incumbents (specifically Schauer) and I've determined that a 12-2 map would be far overeaching and in a neutral or Republican leaning year might end up 9-5 or worse. I think the best Michigan Democrats could do is create 11 safe or Democrat leaning districts and 3 strongly Republican districts. I've drawn a map that I think does just that, although I still am not entirely confident that we could hold both of my "Thumb" districts in a Republican year. But without further ado, here's my map.
I know redistricting diaries are a dime a dozen these days, but I'm going to do one that has never been done before: Michigan (assuming full Democratic control of the process). Nathaniel90 already drew a split control compromise map found here: http://www.swingstateproject.c...
Michigan will be losing a seat in 2012, going from 15 to 14. I think the chances of full Democratic control is about 50-50 or maybe slightly better. It looks like we have a very good shot at taking back control of the State Senate, while the Governors race is still pretty much up in the air, with presumptive nominee John Cherry lagging in the most recent poll. But this far out, no one can predict this one yet.
By this map Democrats would presumably hold a 9-5 advantage in Representation. They currently hold a 8-7 Advantage. In 2002, when Republicans drew the map, they (Rs) held a 9-6 advantage. My map protects freshmen Gary Peters and Mark Schauer, while throwing Dave Camp and Mike Rogers into a district together. It also draws a much more Democratic district for Thaddeus McCotter (or his Democratic successor), presumably eliminating him if he isn't already gone by 2012.
My map was drawn on microsoft paint, and some of the more detailed borders aren't exact. Also my computer has some kind of problem with pixelation or something, so it may appear a little blurry. Without further ado, here's my map with district profiles down below the flip.
