CT-Sen: I thought it was pretty weird that alleged non-candidate Rob Simmons was going to participate in a GOP debate last night. Well, he un-weirded things (I guess) by declaring at this debate that he is "running for the United States Senate." We'll see if it sticks. The primary, by the way, is August 10th.
KS-Sen: Not something you see every day: Rep. Jerry Moran's former campaign manager, who claims he was pushed out in April, has endorsed rival Rep. Todd Tiahrt. Paul Moore said he thinks Moran, who has led in every single public poll, is not "instinctively conservative."
NC-Sen: A new Civitas poll has Richard Burr leading Elaine Marshall 44-37. It's been a really long time since Civitas looked at this race; in December of last year, they found Burr up 40-32.
WA-Sen: Obama alert! The POTUS will headline a fundraiser for Sen. Patty Murray on August 17th in Seattle.
FL-Gov: McLaughlin & Associates supposedly has yet another poll out, but not for their client Bill McCollum. Apparently, they did double duty for the Florida Medical Association, and - surprise - found Rick Scott leading McCollum 37-33. This seems like a pretty colossal waste of money, since McCollum's internal - released just the other day - had him down 37-31.
Meanwhile, McCollum had to deal with a small brush fire: former Florida House Speaker Alan Bense held a private meeting with Rick Scott over the weekend. The problem is that Bense is supposed to be a McCollum supporter - something he re-iterated after his soiree, saying he only got together with Scott to be polite. Bense is also the chairman-elect of the Florida Chamber of Commerce, and his group is expected to get behind Billy Mac. And in case anyone still cares what unlovable loser Gary Bauer thinks, he endorsed McCollum.
KS-Gov: Dem state Sen. Tom Holland raised $283K from Jan. 1 to July 22nd and has $103K on hand. His Republican opponent, Sen. Sam Brownback, took in $519K and has $1.2 million in the bank. Note, though, that Holland's fundraising mostly took place after the legislative session ended in June (there are strict regulations on fundraising while the lege is in operation), while Brownback was free to raise from all sources throughout the reporting period. Brownback's been spending his time well, mind you: He just introduced legislation which would ban the creation of "part-human, part-animal creatures." Sadly, this would mean no manticores, minotaurs, or mermaids. And I was really looking forward to embracing our brave new Greek mythology future.
MN-Gov: Glad to see that Citizens United is proving to be a two-edged sword. Target has donated $150,000 to a right-wing group called MN Forward, which is running TV ads on behalf of extremist Republican nominee Tom Emmer. Gay groups in particular are incensed, since Target had been known as a gay-friendly employer, even going so far as to support the Twin Cities Gay Pride Festival. And speaking for myself, Target can get fucked - as can Best Buy and any other corporation which uses corporate money to help elect Republicans. Not shopping at either location anymore, that's for sure.
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo is launching his first TV ad of the cycle, a spot about property taxes. Of course, NWOTSOTB, or whether it's cable or broadcast, or even where it's airing. Sigh.
OH-Gov: Obama alert 2! The day after the POTUS appears in WA (see bullet above), he'll be doing a fundraiser for Ted Strickland in Columbus.
OR-Gov: We haven't done writeups of our most recent batch of race ratings yet, but Carla Axtman of Blue Oregon has a nice writeup of an interview she did with Crisitunity at Netroots Nation, where he explains our decision to move OR-Gov from Likely D to Tossup.
RI-Gov: Linc Chafee is doing his best to out-do Martha Coakley when it comes to alienating Red Sox Nation (a broad constituency throughout New England). While criticizing state loan guarantees to a video game company owned by Schilling, he also decided to question whether Schilling's famous "bloody sock" game was legit. Already Chafee's tried to walk back the remark - but there are no do-overs in baseball. Or politics.
GA-02: Dem Rep. Sanford Bishop, in a competitive race with Republican Mike Keown (who oh-so-narrowly outraised the incumbent last quarter), formally kicked off his campaign yesterday with a newly-famous Georgian at his side: Shirley Sherrod, with whom you are most certainly familiar by now. Even though this district is almost 48% black, it's also extremely competitive politically, going 54% for Obama and 50% for Kerry.
KS-01: SurveyUSA has one final look at the open-seat GOP primary in KS-01, finding a three-way tie between state Sen. Jim Barnett, realtor Tracey Mann, and state Sen. Tim Huelskamp. All pull 24%. Last time, it was 23-20-18.
MA-09: Bubba alert! Bill Clinton is doing a fundraiser and rally this Thursday for conservadem and anti-healthcare reform asshole Stephen Lynch. Lynch faces a primary from Mac D'Alessandro and has a monster cash advantage ($1.3 million to just $72K), so this surely seems like overkill to me - but of course, the Big Dog loves to pay back favors, and Lynch was (you guessed it) a Hillary supporter in 2008.
NY-13: Rep. Mike McMahon, seeking to avoid a primary on the Independence Party line, is challenging the petitions of third-party irritant John Tabacco. Tabacco needs only 497 valid signatures, but New York has absurdly stringent rules which make it very easy to knock "bad" sigs out. Therefore, the common rule of thumb is that you need to submit at least twice as many petitions as the law requires, and Tabacco only provided 678. Therefore, I'm going to guess that McMahon - who is highly motivated here - will succeed in his challenges. Tabacco has some more problems to worry about, though - after giving a loan to the wife of the chair of the state Independence Party last year, he suddenly got their ballot line in a city council race (funnily enough, for the seat vacated by McMahon).
NY-15: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is dipping a toe into new waters, suggesting that resignation is an option for Charlie Rangel. So is fighting the charges, Hoyer says, but a ringing endorsement of the embattled former Ways and Means chair this is not. Meanwhile, Walt Minnick isn't playing footsie, becoming the second Dem (after OH-13's Betty Sutton) to call on Rangel to quit the House.
Rangel is still in talks with the ethics committee to try to reach some sort of plea bargain, but it seems that he's unwilling to cop to a sufficiently broad array of violations to satisfy the committee members. If Rangel can't come to terms, he'd face a "public hearing" (essentially a trial). As the New York Times points out, the last time this happened was in 2002, when Jim Traficant was expelled from the House.
PA-07: Teabagger Jim Schneller, hoping to appear on the ballot as an independent, says he's gathered 5,200 signatures so far - a thousand more than the 4,200 he needs to submit by August 2nd. It remains to be seen if Republican Pat Meehan will try to challenge Schneller's bid.
TN-03: Politico has a piece documenting the wingnut-on-wingnut violence stemming from the fight to replace outgoing Rep. Zach Wamp in this dark-red seat. The battle is between attorney Chuck Fleischmann and former state GOP chair Robin Smith.
Fundraising: A rare day: two Steny Hoyer mentions in one digest. The House Majority Leader is parachuting into a whole host of districts, doing events for Dems such as Mark Critz, Chris Carney, Tim Bishop, Denny Heck, and the undeserving Larry Kissell. Hoyer, like Nancy Pelosi, got where he is because lots and lots of people owe him - and will continue to owe him. Let this be a lesson to aspiring progressive leaders in Congress.
The big news this past week out of MA-09 is that progressive challenger Mac D'Alessandro will make the Democratic primary ballot against anti-choice, anti-health care reform ConservaDem incumbent Stephen Lynch. He submitted 5,000 signatures to city and town clerks offices by the May 4 deadline. As long as at least 2,000 are certified valid (should be no problem with 5,000 submitted), Mac submits the 2,000+ certified valid signatures to the Secretary of State by June 1 and he'll give voters a choice against ConservaDem Lynch.
Mac took to YouTube to thank his grassroots supporters for their help making the signature drive a big success:
Progressive Democrats across the country have reason to be active in this race. There were 34 House Democrats who ultimately opposed health care reform; and Lynch's vote was among the most perplexing:
Then there are the real head scratchers. Reps. Michael Arcuri (D-NY) and Stephen Lynch (D-MA) famously abandoned the reform push late in the game, after having voted for the House bill. Lynch, in particular, went on a very public crusade of opposition to the bill from the left, and cast his vote despite pleas from President Obama and AFL-CIO head Richard Trumka that he vote with the party.
Of the 34 anti-health care reform Dems, some are running for other office (Senate or Gov), some are retiring, but most are running for re-election. Best I can tell though, few if any have serious primary challengers. MA-09 will provide progressive Democrats nationally with an opportunity to send a message to a ConservaDem who abandoned one of the Democratic Party's central pillars - expanding access to health care and moving toward truly making quality health care a right instead of a privilege.
That appears to be why Mac's campaign has found itself on MoveOn.org's radar screen as a viable primary challenger worthy of progressive support:
In the wake of Rep. Stephen Lynch's vote against health care reform, many progressives have expressed frustration with him-and now he's facing a serious primary challenge.
Mac D'Alessandro is the New England Political Director for the progressive Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and he's pledging to "be on the side of consumers and workers, and not on the side of health insurance companies and big banks."
So get in the game! Now that Mac has demonstrated grassroots strength through the impressively successful signature drive, he has to raise money - and ConservaDem Stephen Lynch starts off with a $1.3 million campaign war chest. So, please, please, please head over to Mac's ActBlue page and contribute as generously as you can!
Mac D'Alessandro of Milton, Massachusetts, has spent his career fighting on behalf of working families. For the past nine years, Mac has worked for the Service Employees International Union, most recently as New England Political Director. Prior to working for the SEIU, Mac worked for Greater Boston Legal Services, directing legislative efforts to help families combat poverty. Mac earned his Bachelor of Science degree in Human Ecology and Environmental Policy from Rutgers University and his Juris Doctor from Boston College Law School. Mac, 40, is married to Jennie Mulqueen, an early childhood arts educator, and is the proud father of five-year-old Sophie and three-year-old Atticus.
CA-Sen: Moose lady endorses sheep lady. Is chicken lady next?
KY-Sen: With the primary less than two weeks away, Jack Conway's throwing in another $300K of his own money.
OH-Sen: Gov. Ted Strickland thinks that Jennifer Brunner might be getting ready to endorse Lee Fisher after all. If she wants to have a future in Democratic politics, she has to do this. If she fails to come through, this will be the kind of thing people remember forever.
CO-Gov: A challenging name for challenging times: Businessman Joe Gschwendtner is joining the GOP gubernatorial field, and he says he'll seed his campaign with $100K of his own scrilla.
OH-Gov: Dems keep making John Kasich feel the pain over his refusal to make public all of his tax returns. Now, a couple of state legislators are proposing a bill which would require all political candidates to disclose their returns as a condition of running for office. Kasich, you'll recall, briefly displayed a summary of his 2008 returns to reporters (who weren't allowed to photocopy it); he made $1.1 million for doing mostly nothing, including helping to drive Lehman Brothers into the ground.
CA-19, CA-20: Two stones, one bird: It looks like two GOP congressional hopefuls in neighboring districts broke federal election laws by taking a flight on a private corporate jet with none other than Karl Rove. That could turn out to be one expensive ride for State Sen. Jeff Denham of Atwater (CA-19) and cherry farmer Andy Vidak (CA-20).
DE-AL: Wilson Research Strategies did a poll of the GOP primary for developer Glen Urquhart, who is facing off against possibly rich businesswoman Michele Rollins. (I've heard she may have only inherited an income interest from her late - and exceedingly wealthy - husband's estate.) The poll showed Rollins leading 27-11 (with 60%) undecided.
FL-02: This is a little unexpected: Blue Dog Allen Boyd is running ads against his absurdly underfunded primary opponent, state Sen. Al Lawson. (Boyd has 29 times the cash that Lawson does.) Once again, though (say it with me), no word on the size of the buy.
FL-11: A fridge too far? NRCC honcho Pete Sessions is holding a fundraiser later this month in Tampa for one Mike Prendergast. Yeah, I ain't never heard o' him neither, but I guess he did raised about $100K in Q1, and incumbent Kathy Castor only has about $350K on hand. Still, this was a 66% Obama/58% Kerry district.
GA-09: In these dark-red districts, the most you can hope for is some hot wingnut-on-wingnut violence - and it looks like we're finally seeing some. The Club for Growth is running ads targeting ex-state Sen. Lee Hawkins, alleging (what else?) that he's not conservative enough and wouldn't sign a pledge to repeal healthcare reform. Hawkins fired back with a press release, charging that the CFG supports illegal immigration and that their favored candidate, ex-state Rep. Tom Graves, is their stooge.
IL-08: Local Republican leaders met with the already-imploded Joe Walsh to see what the eff was going on with his campaign... and they've decided to stick with him. While running into the Melissa Bean buzzsaw might not be that enticing (even in a cycle like this), several other candidates ran against Walsh in the primary, so a replacement ought to be possible. (Read here if you need background on the Walshsplosion.)
MO-06: Local businessman Clint Hylton will run as a Democrat against GOP Rep. Sam Graves. Graves obliterated one of our most highly-touted recruits last cycle, former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes.
NM-01: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for Martin Heinrich (4/28-5/2, likely voters, no trendlines):
Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 55
Jon Barela (R): 38
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Heinrich leads among Hispanics 68-24, who make up 35% of this sample. These are very nice numbers. Heinrich has over $1 million cash-on-hand, while Barela has under $400K.
MA-09: SEIU political director Mac D'Alessandro submitted 5,000 signatures as part of his nominating papers, but still needs an additional 2,000 by June 1 to qualify for the ballot. He's aiming to take on Rep. Stephen Lynch, who earned lifetime douchebag status by infamously switching from "yes" to "no" on the healthcare reform bill.
OH-18: 2008 loser Fred Dailey trails establishment fave Bob Gibbs by 164 votes after Tuesday's GOP primary, but there are still ballots left to be counted. In fact, provisionals and absentees, as long as they were postmarked on time, will still be accepted up until ten days after the election. No one knows how many ballots are outstanding, though. If the final margin is less than one half of one percent, there will be an automatic recount. Still, the odds have to be against Dailey - though a prolonged fight is probably good for Rep. Zack Space.
PA-06: While NARAL doesn't usually endorse in primaries, their former president, Kate Michelman, is backing Manan Trivedi over Doug Pike. Pike, in the past, has written columns that suggested he has wobbly views on reproductive choice. Other pieces of his have made very questionable remarks about women - click the link if you want the exact quotes. Pike says he "apologizes" for these columns, about the 99th time he's had to apologize for something on this campaign.
PA-12: Public Opinion Strategies (R) Tim Burns (5/4-5, likely voters, 3/15 in parens):
Mark Critz (D): 41 (41)
Tim Burns (R): 43 (45)
Undecided: 14 (13)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
SEIU's New England regional political director Mac D'Alessandro has taken the primary plunge against incumbent Stephen Lynch. (Lynch, for you Progressive Punch score followers, gets a lousy 2 rating, coming from Massachusetts, and has a lifetime progressive score on "Crucial Votes" of 81.87, which drops to 71.95 when focusing on 2009-2010.)
Greetings, Blue Mass Group! My name is Mac D'Alessandro. I'm the New England Political Director for the Service Employees International Union (SEIU); and, as of this week, I am a candidate for United States Congress from Massachusetts' 9th district. I am a progressive Democrat, and I'm running for Congress because I believe that the working families in our communities deserve a Congressman who will fight for them and who will actually be a leader on key issues that matter to them - from reforming our health care system (and building on the recently-passed reforms) to holding Wall Street accountable to investing in job creation for our communities to protecting our civil rights and ensuring equal protection under the law.
I have spent my career fighting for working families. I've been with the SEIU for nine years. Prior to that, I worked for Greater Boston Legal Services, directing legislative efforts to help families combat poverty. I live in Milton with my wife Jennie, our children Sophie and Atticus, and our cat Nile. Like most families throughout the district and across Massachusetts, my wife and I sit at our kitchen table on a regular basis, going over our bills and the family budget, paying for today while trying to save for tomorrow. We see too often that the well-being of Fortune 500 companies are put in front of the good fortune of working families like ours. That is why I'm running. The 9th district deserves more than just another representative; the district deserves someone who will champion our Democratic ideals in the U.S. House of Representatives as we fight to balance the playing field for working families like ours.
There were 34 House Democrats who opposed health care reform. Lynch was the only one from Massachusetts. And, of those from the 34 who are running for re-election, I still don't see a lot of primary challenges. Supporting Mac D'Alessandro's campaign can send a message nationally to Democrats wavering on other issues (like Wall Street reform). Mac very much represents what it means to be a "Better Democrat." Please spread the word, join the Facebook group, and contribute any amount you can.
• FL-Sen: That bell is tolling pretty loudly for Charlie Crist right about now, although it's unclear today whether it spells a switch to an independent Senate bid (keep your fingers crossed) or an exit (if only temporarily) from politics. Crist's camp has pulled all of its GOP-primary-related ads from Florida television. Florida junior Senator/Crist errand boy George LeMieux is downplaying this, saying no switch is imminent, but the NRSC is leaning on Crist even more heavily than before, trying to disabuse their endorsee of the idea of an indie bid.
• IN-Sen: I wonder if this will boost John Hostettler with his fundraising by hooking him up with a national base, or if he's going to be more Peter Schiff than Rand Paul in the end? The former Rep., in his run for the GOP nomination in Indiana, now has the endorsement of Rep. Ron Paul, bringing together two of the very few GOPers to vote against the Iraq War. Meanwhile, state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, the dark-horse third-wheel in the GOP derby, is hitting the TV airwaves with an introductory ad, banking much of his small warchest on getting his name rec out of the basement with the primary only weeks away.
• KS-Sen: Rep. Mike Pence weighed in on the GOP field in Kansas, endorsing Rep. Todd Tiahrt over fellow Rep. Jerry Moran. There's something of a social/fiscal conservative split on this race, where social conservatives love Tiahrt but fiscal hawks don't, based on his long career on the goodie-doling Appropriations Committee. If nothing else, it's interesting to see Pence, who tries to have a foot in each camp, choose sides, as he gears up for a possible presidential bid. Meanwhile, Moran is going up with his first TV spot, with a big buy in the Kansas City market.
• KY-Sen: More tasty cat fud in Kentucky, where Rudy Giuliani just endorsed Trey Grayson and, in doing so, slammed the bejesus out of Rand Paul on the 9/11 front, saying that Grayson "is not part of the 'blame America first' crowd that wants to bestow the rights of U.S. citizens on terrorists and point fingers at America for somehow causing 9/11." Just the kind of softening-up of Paul we need for the general election.
• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Siena's latest poll of the Empire State doesn't contain any big surprises; even David Paterson's 17/83 job rating isn't that surprising anymore. In their first look at the post-George Pataki Senate landscape, they find that Kirsten Gillibrand is cruising against all of her seemingly interchangeable third-tier opposition; she beats Joe DioGuardi 46-27, Bruce Blakeman 46-26, and David Malpass 46-24. DioGuardi, apparently with the name rec that comes with a celebrity daughter (or maybe it's from the two terms in Congress in the 1980s), has the edge in a Pataki-free GOP primary, winning with 24 to 7 for Blakeman and 5 for Malpass. On the gubernatorial side, Andrew Cuomo fares even better than Gillibrand, beating Rick Lazio 61-24, Steve Levy 58-23, and Carl Paladino 64-19. Lazio still has the edge in the GOP primary, at 29 with 15 for Levy and 13 for Paladino.
• WA-Sen: Strange that it takes a foul-mouthed blogger to notice the clues that Dino Rossi isn't running that the Beltway press seems oblivious to. Goldy notices that minor candidate Chris Widener, another personal friend of Rossi, is saying the same thing as state Sen. Don Benton: if he's running, why the hell isn't he doing me the favor of calling me up and telling me to get out of the way? (Well, maybe because he's a jerk?) Even more telling is that another minor GOP candidate, former NFL player Clint Didier, has commercial real estate mogul Kemper Freeman (one of Rossi's big-name donors and a major insider player in the state GOP), as his campaign chair.
• FL-Gov: I'm wondering if Bill McCollum's lead role in the pursuit of the GOP AGs' lawsuit over HCR is suddenly taking a toll on him (voters are opposed to the suit by a 54-40 margin), or if Quinnipiac got an unusually Dem-friendly sample (it's the same one that found Kendrick Meek with 4 of Marco Rubio in a head-to-head, and Obama gets a 48/46 approval). Either way, Quinnipiac has the nicest numbers we've seen out of the Florida gubernatorial race in a while. McCollum leads Democratic state CFO Alex Sink by just 40-36. McCollum leads state Sen. Paula Dockery 56-7 in the GOP primary; Sink leads Dockery 37-28.
• MD-Gov: Usually when a heavyweight jumps into the field, the random odds and ends get out, but the opposite happened in Maryland. Shortly after Bob Ehrlich got in, little-known rich guy Brian Murphy just announced his candidacy today. Murphy will be running against Ehrlich from the right and has the support of former state GOP chair James Pelura. Murphy also got a vote of confidence from former state Del. Carmen Amedori, who dropped her long-shot bid against Barbara Mikulski to sign on as Murphy's Lt. Governor running mate.
• CA-36: At the state convention, incumbent Rep. Jane Harman managed to ward off Marci Winograd's attempts to deny Harman the state party's endorsement. After a floor fight, Harman won the endorsement with a 599-417 vote. The two will still face off in the Democratic primary (in a rematch of 2006).
• GA-09: Here's a problem for Georgia Dems: they lost their only candidate in the 9th, pastor Mike Freeman. His name will still remain on the ballot for the May 11 special election to replace Nathan Deal, but he leaves behind a hole for the general election. Not that the absence of a Dem in this R+28 district would be noticed much, though.
• MA-09: Rep. Stephen Lynch has dodged a primary challenge so far, following his vote against HCR, but it seems like organized labor has found a candidacy that might stick. Mac d'Alessandro, a regional director for the SEIU, says he'll take a shot at Lynch in the Democratic primary, although he has only a couple weeks to round up the necessary 2,000 signatures.
• MN-01: The Republicans had their endorsement convention for the 1st District and gave their nod to state Rep. Randy Demmer. While Demmer is hardly anyone's idea of a moderate, he's less polarizing than his main rival, former state Rep. Allen Quist (a Michele Bachmann ally). Quist sounds like he'll honor the endorsement and not run in the primary.
• MN-02: On the Dem side, though, former state Rep. Shelley Madore has decided to keep running in the primary even though the DFL endorsement went to Dan Powers.
• NH-01: In a surprise to almost no one, Sean Mahoney (who made a big show of quitting his committee position on the RNC recently, ostensibly to protest Michael Steele) announced that he's going to run in the GOP primary in the 1st for the right to take on Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. The primary that looked like a victory lap for former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta last year is now a four-way bar brawl instead.
• NY-24: Rep. Mike Arcuri is, all of a sudden, sounding kind of Stupak-ish in the wake of his getting bruised by all ends of the spectrum after his ill-advised 'yes' to 'no' switch on HCR; he won't commit to running for re-election just yet. Either he's particularly thin-skinned and vindictive about getting his widdle feewings hurt, or he's looking at some particularly unappetizing polling numbers, especially if the Working Families Party runs someone against him.
• FL-Sen: Remember the good ol' days of 2009, when Charlie Crist's huge cash advantage would make him inevitable even if insurgent Marco Rubio somehow caught on with the teabagger set? Yeah, I'm having trouble remembering too. Rubio just brought in $3.6 million this quarter, the best of any candidate reporting so far. (Crist has yet to report, and even if he loses the quarter may yet lead in total cash.) Rubio may be getting himself into some trouble, though, with the all-important senior demographic in Florida, though, as his recent comments about changing Social Security (by, among others, raising the eligibility age) may not sit well with the state's 3.5 million beneficiaries.
• IL-Sen: Looks like the biggest fundraising news today is coming from the GOP side of the aisle: Mark Kirk had a strong quarter, too, as he pulled in $2.2 million, leaving him with $3 million in the bank.
• NY-Sen: With all the state's second-tier Republican talent interested in taking on Kirsten Gillibrand, where they might at least have some hope of an upset, no one's signing up for the truly quixotic task of taking on Chuck Schumer in the other Senate race. That may change, as political consultant Jay Townsend is talking about stepping out from behind the curtain and trying his hand as a candidate. Townsend is currently working for Nan Hayworth's campaign in NY-19.
• WI-Sen: A new Republican is stepping forward to run in the primary for the right to take on Russ Feingold... and, no, it's not Tommy Thompson. Dick Leinenkugel, a former state Commerce secretary (an appointed position), plans to enter the race soon regardless of whether or not Thompson gets in. (Cillizza says, as far as Thompson goes, he'll decide by early May and "most informed speculation seems to suggest he will take a pass.") If Leinenkugel's name is somehow evocative of hungover collegiate Sunday mornings, he's from the family that owns the similarly-named brewery.
• GA-Gov: A sudden late entrant to the already-crowded Republican field in the Georgia governor's race is bringing a lot of his own money with him. Ray Boyd is a wealthy real estate executive, and he kicked off his campaign by writing himself a $2 million check. He promises to reach out to the state's teabaggers for support. The newest Insider Advantage poll of the GOP primary field doesn't include Boyd; it finds Insurance Comm. John Oxendine with a solid lead at 26. Ex-Sos Karen Handel is at 18, ex-Rep. Nathan Deal is at 9, state Sen. Eric Johnson is at 5, and "Other" racks up 11, with 31% still undecided.
• MD-Gov: Ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich officially kicked off his campaign to get back his old job from Martin O'Malley in November. The DNC, however, is trying to tie Ehrlich today to his former #2 man, who's gone on to rather overshadow Ehrlich for the last few news cycles: ex-LG and current RNC boss Michael Steele.
• MI-Gov: There's another EPIC-MRA poll of the Michigan governor's race, suggesting they're going to be polling pretty frequently. This time, they find the likeliest matchup, Democratic state House speaker Andy Dillon vs. Rep. Peter Hoekstra, goes to Hoekstra, 40-33 (one month ago Hoekstra led 41-37). Mike Cox beats Dillon 43-34 and Rick Snyder beats Dillon 42-30, while Lansing mayor Virg Bernero loses to Hoekstra 42-29, to Cox 44-30, and to Snyder 42-26. Dillon leads the Dem primary 22-15 (with 11 for Alma Wheeler Smith), while Hoekstra leads the GOP primary at 27, with Cox at 21, Snyder at 15, Mike Bouchard at 13, and Tom George at 3.
• NV-Gov: Here's some strategic thinking from the camp of Reid the Younger. The Committee to Protect Nevada Jobs (headed by Rory Reid's consultant Dan Hart) is running ads bolstering incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons and attacking GOP primary rival Brian Sandoval (who'll provide a much more difficult opponent for Reid than the thoroughly-trashed Gibbons).
• RI-Gov: The Association of Democratic City and Town Chairpersons -- the umbrella group for the Dem party chairs of each of the state's 39 municipalities -- issued endorsements for a number of key races. Maybe there's some tension between them and the state party, as they endorsed Treasurer Frank Caprio for the Governor's race (instead of AG Patrick Lynch) and in RI-01, Providence mayor David Cicilline (instead of former state party chair William Lynch, brother of Patrick). They also endorsed Jim Langevin in RI-02, where he faces a primary challenge from a state Rep.
• WY-Gov: Democrats in Wyoming seem to have moved somewhere back behind square one in their search for a gubernatorial candidate. Their seeming best bet in the wake of Gov. Dave Freudenthal's decision not to go for re-election, state Sen. Mike Massie, has decided to run for state superintendent of public instruction instead, where he'll face incumbent GOPer Jim McBride.
• DE-AL: The NRCC has to be happy to get something of an upgrade in the open seat race in Delaware, shaping up to be their likeliest loss in the House. Michelle Rollins, a wealthy philanthropist, has confirmed that she'll run. She hasn't run for office before, but the DCCC already started attacking her several weeks ago, indicating they take her (or at least her wallet) more seriously than the Some Dudes already running. Former Lt. Gov. John Carney is the Democratic candidate, and has had a long head-start on the race.
• MA-09: Progressives looking for a primary challenge to Stephen Lynch (in the wake of his "no" vote on HCR) will have to look somewhere other than Needham town meeting member Harmony Wu; she announced via Facebook that she won't be running.
• MI-01: Seems like Rep. Bart Stupak got his feelings hurt after taking a serious pounding from the left, from the right, and from pretty much all points in between during his last-minute obstruction of the health care reform passage. He's saying that, although he has the signatures prepared for another run, he's not ruling out retirement this year. Assuming he runs again, he faces a primary from the pro-choice left as well as a general election challenge from angry teabaggers on his right. If he does retire, Menhen is already on top of it in the diaries, listing some potential replacement candidates.
• NY-23: Paul Maroun, a Franklin County Legislator who got passed over by local GOP heads in favor of Dede Scozzafava in the special election in the 23rd, had been planning to run in the primary this year, but just decided against it. That leaves only two remaining contenders, Doug Hoffman (who ran on the Conservative Party line last year and is still doing his part to cheese off the local GOP), and self-funding investor Matt Doheny.
• PA-15: Bethlehem mayor John Callahan keeps on being one of the Dems' few bright lights among its challengers this cycle, pulling in $320K this quarter, with $825K CoH. For more numbers, Reid Wilson's out with today's fundraising wrapup at the Hotline, with other numbers worth checking out including everybody in PA-Gov and FL-Gov.
• DNC: Michael Steele rolled out the RNC's gaudy committee fundraising numbers early as a means of distracting the media from, well, everything else that's happening at the RNC. Unfortunately, that kind of backfired, as the DNC put out numbers that topped the RNC's already-high numbers. The DNC pulled in more than $13 million in March (compared to $11 million for the RNC), showing (via the HCR victory) that nothing succeeds like success.
• RNC: Speaking of the RNC's numbers, here's an interesting accounting trick that's just come to light: the RNC had a deal going with the Michigan GOP to give money back and forth to each other, in order to inflate the RNC's fundraising numbers. Not really the day that Michael Steele would have chosen for this news to come out.
• NC-Sen: The newest Elon University poll of North Carolina finds that, as with most pollsters, that Richard Burr is strangely anonymous for a Senator: he has a favorable of 34/17. His best-known Democratic competitor, SoS Elaine Marshall, is at 18/8. The poll doesn't contain head-to-heads, and also, bear in mind that it only polls "residents," not even registered voters, which would explain the super-low awareness.
• TX-Sen: 20 of Texas's Republican House members wrote a letter to Kay Bailey Hutchison, asking her to reconsider and stay on as Senator. (Recall that she planned to resign once she was done "fighting health care.") I wonder if the letter was signed by Joe Barton, who was pretty public about his desire to take over that seat back when a resignation seemed likelier.
• UT-Sen: Tonight's the night we get our first hard impression of what degree of trouble Bob Bennett is in. Tonight are neighborhood caucuses, where delegates to the state convention are elected. A particularly ultra-conservative-skewing convention could pose some trouble to Bennett, although with so many GOP challengers, it seems likely no one will hit the 60% mark at the convention needed to avoid a primary.
• CT-Gov: You might recognize these numbers from last week; we've been waiting for Quinnipiac to release general election numbers in the Governor's race but they just don't seem to be forthcoming, so here are their primary numbers. On the Dem side, Ned Lamont is leading at 28, followed by former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy at 18, Mary Glassman at 4, Rudy Marconi at 2, and Juan Figueroa at 1. (Susan Bysiewicz has a big edge over George Jepsen, 54-10, in the AG primary, despite concerns about her eligibility for the job.) On the GOP side, Tom Foley is dominating at 30, followed by Lt. Gov Michael Fedele collapsing down to 4, Danbury mayor Mark Boughton at 4, ex-Rep. Larry DeNardis at 2, and Oz Griebel and Jeff Wright at 2.
• CA-Gov: Wondering how Meg Whitman pulled into a huge lead in the primary and a small lead in the general in California governor's race? She's spent a mind-boggling $27 million on her race so far this year (for a total of $46 million), compared with Steve Poizner's $3 million and Jerry Brown's $142K.
• OR-Gov: Former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley is the first candidate to hit the TV airwaves in the Oregon governor's race so far, touting his "outsider" credentials.
• PA-Gov: AG Tom Corbett, who oh just coincidentally happens to be running for Governor this year, finally got a conviction in the Bonusgate investigation, against former state Rep. Mike Veon and several of his staffers. The timing is certainly helpful to Corbett, for whom the investigation has been dragging out and the possibility of mistrials (or no convictions before November) was starting to loom. Trials against several other former Democratic House leaders, including GOPer John Perzel and Dem Bill DeWeese, are still in the pipeline.
• WY-Gov: The Democrats are about to land a gubernatorial candidate: attorney Paul Hickey, who plans an announcement later this week. If the name is familiar, he's the son of former Governor J.J. Hickey. Democratic State Sen. Mike Massie hasn't ruled out a run yet either, although he may run for one of the statewide offices.
• IL-11: Here's one more district that hasn't been high on people's watch lists but will need to be monitored, at least if a new internal poll from Republican pollster POS is to be believed. They find their patron, Adam Kinzinger, leading freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson 44-38.
• MA-09: With primary challenges moving onto the radar against HCR "no" votes Jason Altmire and Mike Arcuri, another one may be taking shape: Needham Town Meeting member (and, well, college classmate of mine) Harmony Wu has pulled papers for the race and is gauging local sentiment for a primary run against Stephen Lynch.
• NY-01: Whoever faces off against Tim Bishop for the Republicans is going to have to fight through an arduous primary to get there. Any hopes of an easy coronation for Randy Altschuler seem to have vaporized, as now Chris Cox (Republican party insider and Nixon grandson) is setting his own Wall Street-powered fundraising operation in motion. And a 3rd option, former SEC prosecutor George Demos, has had his own fundraising success.
• NY-20: One more Republican, Queensbury town supervisor Dan Stec, bailed out of the field today, suggesting that the GOP is finally coalescing behind retired Col. Chris Gibson as a standard-bearer against freshman Dem Rep. Scott Murphy, in what's one of their slowest races to take shape.
• OK-05: Finally, we have a Democrat on tap for the open seat race in Oklahoma's dark-red 5th, where there's already a half-dozen GOPers jousting. Tom Guild is secretary of the Oklahoma County Democratic Party, and was a poli sci professor at Univ. of Central Oklahoma for many years.
• PA-11: Things got easier for Lou Barletta in the race in the 11th, where his Republican primary challenger, Chris Paige dropped out, citing family concerns. Paige, an attorney, was underfunded but had delivered some surprisingly-hard hits to Barletta, especially on Barletta's signature issue of immigration.
• SC-01: The Club for Growth weighed into another GOP primary in a reddish open seat, endorsing state Rep. Tim Scott. Scott faces off in the primary against several well-known last names: Carroll Campbell III and Paul Thurmond.
• HCR: The Republican pivot from health care reform to health care repeal has some implications in the gubernatorial races. Rep. Peter Hoekstra is going full-on repeal, stopping by Sunday's teabagger rally to pledge to fight that battle. It's also showing up in a number of races where the Republican AG is running for Governor and joined the multi-AG suit against HCR on easily-rebuttable 10th Amendment grounds (hint to teabaggers: read Scalia's opinion in Raich) - many in dark-red states where it probably helps more than hurts (like Henry McMaster in South Carolina). There are a few blue state AGs involved, though, like Tom Corbett (although he probably feels like he has a safety cushion to do so, thanks to his Bonusgate-related popularity). Most puzzling, though, is Washington's Rob McKenna, who got where he is only by acting moderate. Throwing off his well-maintained moderate mask and joining forces with the wackjob likes of Ken Cuccinelli seems like a weird gamble for his widely-expected 2012 run, where success is utterly dependent on making inroads among suburban moderates.
Luckily, a primary challenger emerged today. Needham Town Meeting member Harmony Wu is a former professor at Emerson College in Boston, and was the Needham town coordinator for the Obama campaign. Wu has said she will challenge Lynch if he follows through on his pledge to vote against Health Care Reform.
A Facebook page set up for Wu has drawn more than 400 followers within a few hours of being posted. Many are experienced organizers and campaign staffers from throughout the Boston area.
If Representative Lynch votes against Health Care today, he will have a fight on his hands for the Democratic nomination.
Let this be a message to all Democratic members who are thinking of throwing their values out the window for the sake of political expediency in today's vote.
• CO-Sen: 50% is a totally arbitrary mark in the Colorado caucus straw poll, and doesn't mean anything from a legal perspective, but Andrew Romanoff's total has fallen below the magic mark as ballots keep getting counted. Romanoff's at 49.9% to Michael Bennet's 41.9% with 20 precincts left to be counted, which, in the battle of perceptions, takes a tiny bit of shiny luster off his victory.
• IA-Gov: Actually, maybe the departure of Jonathan Narcisse from the Democratic gubernatorial primary isn't the good news for Chet Culver that it originally seemed. The gadflyish Narcisse has decided to run as an independent instead, and if he a) gets on the ballot and b) gets any votes, it seems likelier they might come from Culver's column than that of the GOP nominee (although he does talk a lot of shrinking government, so who knows).
• MD-Gov: Prince George's Co. Exec Wayne Curry has occasionally flirted publicly with the idea of a challenge to Martin O'Malley in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, and he's popping up with the idea again today. (O'Malley already faces a challenge from the right in the primary from former state Del. George Owings). Meanwhile, Dems are launching some pre-emptive salvos at possible GOP candidate Bob Ehrlich, accusing him of using employees at his law firm to do campaign work for him.
• NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B: Apparently there's been some behind-the-scenes pressure on ex-Rep. Rick Lazio to get out of the GOP governor's primary, where he's aroused little enthusiasm despite having the field to himself for months, and into the Senate race instead -- to clear the way for ostensibly prized recruit Steve Levy, the Suffolk Co. Exec who appears set to change parties and run as a Republican. Lazio says no way is he switching, though, assailing Levy as a liberal Democrat who called the stimulus package "manna from heaven."
• AZ-03: The John McCain/J.D. Hayworth primary fight is turning into one of the main fracture lines in the primary further down the ballot to replace retiring GOP Rep. John Shadegg. Ex-state Sen. Jim Waring and Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker have both endorsed McCain, while former state Rep. Sam Crump backs Hayworth. Former state Sen. Pamela Gorman says she isn't getting involved.
• GA-07: Looks like GOP state Rep. Clay Cox is sitting in the catbird's seat, as far as replacing retiring Rep. John Linder. Not only did his main rival, state Sen. Don Balfour, drop out of the race (and out of politics altogether) yesterday, leaving Cox alone in the field, but now state Sen. David Shafer (who many initially expected to run to succeed Linder) gave Cox his endorsement.
• ID-01: This is terribly disappointing... ex-Rep. Bill Sali called a big press conference today, just before Idaho's filing deadline, to announce something, hopefully another kamikaze run to get his House seat back. (Or why stop there? Why not a primary run against Mike Crapo?) Unfortunately, it was just to endorse state Rep. Raul Labrador in the primary.
• MA-09: Is Stephen Lynch opening himself up to a primary challenge? Despite meeting personally with President Obama, he says that he is "firmly a 'no' vote" on healthcare reform. Lynch has always received strong support from labor, but with unions whipping this vote with unusual fervor, perhaps things might change on that front. (D) Here's one possible explanation for Lynch mugging for the cameras today... Lynch may be thinking about a challenge to Scott Brown in 2012; he sorta-deflected questions on that front.
• NC-08: Tim d'Annunzio, the self-funding Republican who gets treated as the frontrunner in the GOP field to challenge freshman Rep. Larry Kissell, just keeps on pulling hot-headed stunts that threaten his status as a credible candidate. D'Annunzio got into a physical confrontation with Republican state Rep. Justin Burr (no punching, just lots of poking) and then issued a press release attacking the state party chair, Tom Fetzer, for "coordinated personal attacks" in the wake of the incident.
• NY-24: Speaking of strategically-challenged "no" votes, it looks like the Working Families Party isn't bluffing on its threats to cut loose Rep. Mike Arcuri. They're actively recruiting a challenger to run against him on their own ballot line, and the SEIU is supportive of the effort.
• Fundraising: Here's a really interesting chart, which plots the DW/Nominate scores (i.e. ideological position) of Congress members against what sectors of the economy their contributions come from. The results aren't too surprising: motion pictures, professors, printing and publishing, public schools, and lawyers lean the most left (darned cultural elite!) and oil and gas, auto dealers, construction, energy production, and agriculture lean most right. Health care and real estate seem to be smack in the middle.
• AZ-Sen: This is good news for John McCain... 's opponent. Rodney Glassman, Tucson city councilor, has formed an exploratory committee to vie for the 2010 Democratic Senate nomination. With the state's top-tier candidates avoiding the race, an up-and-comer looking to increase his statewide profile like Glassman is probably the best we'll do here. (H/t Nonpartisan.)
• CT-Sen: You just know that the moment pro wrestling CEO Linda McMahon launched her Senate run, the nation's Democratic opposition researchers all started doing a merry jig knowing how much work would be available for them. The first wave is already out, leading off with a clips reel of "PG-rated" (McMahon's words) WWE highlights including simulated rape and necrophilia. Meanwhile, newly minted teabagger ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, realizing that he doesn't have a lock on the necrophile vote any more, has continued his march to the right, begging forgiveness for his previous support of EFCA and cap and trade.
• FL-Sen: I always thought the idea of a Corrine Brown challenge to Kendrick Meek in the Democratic Senate primary was weird from the outset, but despite putting up some decent fundraising numbers in the third quarter, last Friday she pulled the plug on any bid. Rep. Brown will run for re-election in the dark-blue 3rd, where she's been since 1992.
Meanwhile, Charlie Crist is actually starting to sweat his once sure-thing Senate bid. Although no one has actually leaked it, rumors keep persisting about that Chamber of Commerce poll that has Crist posting only a 44-30 lead over Marco Rubio in the GOP primary. Also worrisome for the Crist camp: much of that $1 million that Rubio pulled in was from in-state small donors -- you know, the kind that actually vote -- rather than out-of-state movement conservative bigwigs. With that in mind, Crist is already tapping into his big cash stash, airing radio spots in the conservative Ft. Myers market touting his government-slashing abilities.
• IL-Sen: Departing (well, maybe) Rep. Danny Davis gave his endorsement in the Democratic primary to former Chicago Urban League head Cheryle Jackson, rather than to establishment candidate state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. Fellow Rep. Bobby Rush has already endorsed Jackson.
• KS-Sen: Dan Glickman, who teased Politico earlier this summer with some vague whispers of suggestions of hints that he might run for Senate, says he'll step down from his current gig (chairman of the MPAA) in September 2010. If he sticks to that timetable, that clearly puts him out of the running for any return to politics this cycle. At 64, and facing what is now an almost implacably red state back at home, Glickman sounds like he's done with elective office for good, saying he thinks he'll "end up in the nonprofit or academic world." (D)
• MA-Sen: Rep. Michael Capuano is way behind the polls of the actual voters, but he's closing in on a majority of the state's House delegation in his corner for the Democratic Senate special election nod. Today, Rep. Stephen Lynch, the state's least liberal House member and a surprise non-participant in the Senate primary, endorsed Capuano; he joins Reps. Jim McGovern, John Tierney, and Barney Frank.
• SC-Sen: Democratic attorney Chad McGowan made it official; he launched his Senate candidacy against Jim DeMint. He's the most credible candidate who has stepped up so far.
• IL-Gov: The Paul Simon Institute on Public Policy issued a poll last week of the Democratic gubernatorial primary, finding a lot of undecideds (and "someone elses") but that incumbent Pat Quinn leads state comptroller Dan Hynes 34-17.
• KS-Gov: Democratic state party chair Larry Gates squashed earlier rumors; he won't be getting into the gubernatorial race (or any statewide race), leaving the Dems still candidate-less.
• NJ-Gov: More golden admissions from Chris Christie, from a video recorded several years ago but released right now for maximum effect by Team Corzine. In Christie's words:
Listen, I plead guilty to having raised money for Governor George W. Bush because I thought he was the best person to be President of the United States. And I did it in a completely appropriate fashion and enthusiastically for the President....
There's no mystery to the fact that I was appointed to this job because, in part, I had a relationship with the President of the United States.
Anybody who receives a political appointment -- I am a political appointee -- there's going to be some measure of politics involved with that appointment.
And Christie may be sending the wrong message right now, as revelations fly about his luxurious travel overspending while US Attorney: now he's saying as Governor, his top advisers will be able to travel with fewer restrictions than under the current administration, at taxpayers' expense, naturally. Meanwhile, over the weekend Jon Corzine picked up the endorsement of the two biggest fish in the news pond, the New York Times and the Phildelphia Inquirer. (Christie can boast about the East Brunswick Home News Tribune, however.)
• VA-Gov: Speaking of endorsements, Creigh Deeds got the big one too, from the Washington Post, and in very unambiguous fashion as well (recall, of course, that the WaPo endorsement in the primary was the corner-turning moment for Deeds). Meanwhile, while it doesn't seem set in stone, there are reports that Barack Obama will campaign on Deeds' behalf after all.
• FL-08: With the current field against Rep. Alan Grayson looking pretty underwhelming, Republican Winter Park physician Ken Miller, who had been considering a run in the 24th (where the primary opposition is of a higher-caliber), has decided to move over to the 8th instead. Which isn't to say that the never-before-elected Miller seems terribly, uh, whelming.
• FL-19: One of the likeliest candidates to run for the seat being vacated by Robert Wexler has already declined the shot: state Sen. Jeremy Ring won't run. While he cited family concerns, he did also point to the fact that little of his district overlaps with the 19th. Fellow state Sen. Ted Deutch is starting to take on front-runner status.
• IN-07: Butler University professor and perennial candidate (including the 2004 Senate race against Evan Bayh) Marvin Scott is back, and this time he's going up against Rep. Andre Carson in the Indianapolis-based 7th.
• NY-23: The independent expenditures are flying in the 23rd, with $100K from the SEIU in favor of Bill Owens, $9,700 from the Club for Growth $9,500 from the Susan B. Anthony List, both on behalf of Conservative Doug Hoffman, and $123K from the NRCC against Owens (which includes $22K for a poll from aptly-named POS -- so if we don't see that soon, we'll know the NRCC doesn't like the results). The SEIU money is paying for anti-Dede Scozzafava radio spots, another blow for GOPer Scozzafava, who had been expected to get some labor support. Scozzafava did get the somewhat belated endorsement of Long Island's Rep. Peter King, though, one of the few other remaining labor-friendly GOPers. Finally, rumors abound in the rightosphere (starting with the Tolbert Report) that Mike Huckabee, who'll be addressing the state Conservative Party in Syracuse soon, won't actually be endorsing Hoffman.
• OH-02: Rep. Jean Schmidt, who had to beat back a primary challenge in 2008 from state Rep. Todd Brinkman, will face another primary bid from an elected official in 2010: Warren County Commissioner Mike Kilburn. Kilburn says "there's a movement to elect more conservative politicians to Washington." Because, uh, Schmidt isn't conservative enough?
• OK-05: A sort-of big name is getting into the field in the open seat race left behind by Rep. Mary Fallin (running for Oklahoma governor): Corporation Commissioner Jeff Cloud, who opened up his exploratory committee. He starts off lagging behind in fundraising, though, as state Rep. Mike Thompson and former state Sen. Kevin Calvey have already been running for a while now.
• Mayors: After a closer-than-expected primary, Boston mayor Tom Menino is still leading in the polls. The 16-year incumbent leads city councilor Michael Flaherty 52-32 in a Boston Globe poll (down from a 61-23 lead in a May poll).
• DSCC: Barack Obama seems like he's finally shifting into campaign mode. He'll be headlining a DSCC fundraiser in Miami next week.
• Voting Rights: After spending years as a political football that gets kicked around from bill to bill, it looks like the push to get Washington DC a full voting Representative is resurfacing again. This time, it may be attached to the 2010 defense appropriations bill. (Watch the Republicans vote against it anyway.)
• Fundraising: Pollster.com has some handy graphics displaying 3rd quarter receipts, expenditures, and cash on hand graphed against each other for Senate candidates. (We'll have our own Senate chart up today, hopefully; if you missed James's House chart over the weekend, it's here.)
Martha Coakley (D): 47
Michael Capuano (D): 9
Stephen Lynch (D): 6
Alan Khazei (D): 3
Steve Pagliuca (D): 0
Martha Coakley (D): 54
Scott Brown (R): 24
Michael Capuano (D): 36
Scott Brown (R): 28
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Suffolk finds what Rasmussen found last week -- Martha Coakley, the only statewide official and only woman in the hunt for the special election to fill the open Senate seat, has a big lead on all her primary opponents. There are a few method problems here: first, while the poll was in mid-stream, Suffolk pulled out Rep. Stephen Lynch and added Steve Pagliuca (which didn't stop Pagliuca from managing to get absolutely no votes). Also, it's unclear from their writeup who they were asking the Democratic primary question to: only registered Democrats, or unenrolled voters as well (who, in Massachusetts, can opt to pick a Democratic ballot). Clearly those problems didn't seem to have too much effect on the poll's finding of a huge lead for Coakley, though.
Coakley has a 53/16 favorable; Michael Capuano, by contrast, isn't well-known and barely in positive territory at 16/14 (which would explain why he polls worse in the general against Republican Scott Brown than does Coakley). Even with Coakley's seeming popularity, the Democrats in the sample still say they would have voted for ex-Rep. Joe Kennedy by a wide margin if he'd gotten into the race, 59-25. The sample also approves of changing the law to accommodate a temporary appointment Senator, 55-41.
A few other Massachusetts items of note: a vote is expected today in the state House on the issue of changing the law to allow a temporary appointment, and debate is currently underway. The projected timeline, accounting for anticipated Republican procedural stalling tactics, is final passage on Sep. 24.
Stephen Pagliuca is making his entry into the Democratic primary official today. The co-owner of the Boston Celtics and also managing director at Bain Capital, who's worth $400 million, will obviously be able to self-fund. He'll need to find a way to improve on his 0% somehow, though... although his support for fellow Bain brain Mitt Romney in 1994 over Ted Kennedy and of William Weld over John Kerry in 1996 may make it difficult to sell the state's Democratic base on believing his conversion (he became a Democrat in 1998).
Finally, Michael Capuano isn't wasting any time dipping into his big stash of House dollars and hitting the airwaves, releasing his first TV ad. He needs to act early to introduce himself to most of the state's voters and stake out the field's left flank, while well-known but cash-poor Coakley is still scrambling to put together a warchest. Capuano hasn't even formally announced his candidacy, which he'll do tomorrow.
After lagging support from unions - one of his vital voter bases - U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) said today he wouldn't run for the late U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's seat....
"The challenge of putting together the resources and organization necessary to wage a competitive statewide campaign in less than 90 days is insurmountable," said Lynch in a statement.
Here's the take-home lesson that a lot of Democrats, not just Lynch, need to take to heart (starting with a certain majority leader whose name rhymes with Barry Bead who will need on-the-ground labor support to make it over the hump in 2010). If labor support is a key component to your coalition, don't dither around on the public option.
So, that leaves AG Martha Coakley and Rep. Michael Capuano as the only elected officials in the race. What had once looked like it would be a 5-way frenzy of House members where the more moderate Lynch had a shot at sneaking through, instead has turned into a fairly easy shot for Coakley, the only statewide official in the running. Capuano's best bet is to try to consolidate Boston and Cambridge-area votes and outflank Coakley on the left (although Coakley is outwardly progressive, unlike Capuano she doesn't have a voting record to point to, so we have no idea how deep her progressive bona fides are). The only wild cards left are the entry of random rich guys who can fund their own way: City Year founder Alan Khazei confirmed that he's getting into the race, and Boston Celtic co-owner Stephen Pagliuca is also sounding like a candidate.
On the GOP side, state Sen. Scott Brown seems to be the Republicans' best bet... although he's attracting the kind of attention you don't necessarily want when you're running for Senate. Although, c'mon, we've all posed nude to pay our way through law school, haven't we? Uh... we haven't?
According to the Boston Globe, Rep. Ed Markey from MA-07 won't run in the special election to fill Ted Kennedy's Senate seat:
Markey, a Malden Democrat, said he could do more as a senior member in the House than as a freshman US senator. He has been active on global warming issues and on health care.
"I have had the honor to serve the people of the Seventh Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives for 33 years, and am now the eighth most senior Democrat," he said in a statement. "I believe that my leadership positions and seniority in the House allow me to accomplish more for my Congressional District and for Massachusetts. I have therefore decided not to become a candidate for the Senate.
Markey's seniority would certainly be hard to give up. Although he has the largest warchest of all the current members of the House delegation, he probably also saw only a difficult path to victory, with AG Martha Coakley with a substantial polling lead thanks to her statewide presence, and with Reps. Stephen Lynch and Michael Capuano already battling it out for Boston-area votes.
Former White House Chief of Staff Andy Card (R) announced Friday night that he would not run. "Now is not the right time for me to enter a political race," he said in a statement.
Martha Coakley (D): 38
Stephen Lynch (D): 11
Ed Markey (D): 10
Michael Capuano (D): 7
John Tierney (D): 3
Some other candidate: 5
Not sure: 25
(MoE: ±4%)
Rasmussen acts quickly to get a look at the Democratic primary field in the Massachusetts Senate race, now that it's clear that heavyweights Joe Kennedy II and Marty Meehan won't be running. AG Martha Coakley, the only statewide official and the only woman in the race, has a big edge. She leads four Boston-area House members -- each of whom represents 1/10th of the state, and most of whom pull in about 1/10th of the respondents.
Lots of other developments in the Bay State today. First and foremost, rumors were flying earlier today that Christy Mihos, the Independent-turned-Republican former convenience store czar and Turnpike Authority board member who's currently running for Governor, would switch over to the Senate race, giving the GOP a top-tier candidate (albeit still a long shot for a federal office, in this dark-blue state). However, Mihos a few hours ago confirmed that he's staying in the Governor's race, where polls have shown him competitive.
Politico also rounds up a number of other odds and ends. One more Democrat is getting into the mix: Alan Khazei, the wealthy founder of City Year, a community service program for 20somethings. He has the potential to self-fund and might be able to tap into the youth vote. Martha Coakley, not exactly in a surprise, is getting EMILY's List's endorsement, which well help a lot with her fundraising (her one big disadvantage is she starts almost from scratch on money, while the House members all have huge stockpiles).
Finally, the Massachusetts legislature is poised to move on the legislation needed to create a temporary interim appointment until the special election can be held. Reportedly, legislation may be on the floor by day's end. One other name has surfaced for the temporary appointment: Paul Kirk, former DNC chair and current head of the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation.
• IL-Sen: The Tom Dart boomlet didn't seem to go anywhere; the attention-grabbing Cook County Sheriff announced that, contrary to rumors, he wasn't going to run in the Democratic Senate primary and would instead stand for re-election.
• LA-Sen: David Vitter is wasting no time in trying to define Charlie Melancon with new TV spots, saying "Life sure is swell when you're a liberal-loving, Obama-endorsing congressman like Charlie Melancon." The good news is: this means everyone recognizes this is a highly competitive race; conventional wisdom says define your opponent if he's strong, ignore him if he's weak so you don't inadvertently give him free PR.
• MA-Sen: Rep. Stephen Lynch, the most conservative member of the Massachusetts House delegation and a former Ironworker, has been trying to lock down the slot as organized labor's candidate in the upcoming Senate special election, but he was booed at a health care rally and not even invited to a labor breakfast over the weekend, suggesting that his skepticism over the public option could be hurting him among the potential backers he most needs. Campaign Diairies has a handy compare-and-contrast chart of key votes among the Mass. delegation; interestingly, Lynch was also the only one to vote in favor of the Peru free trade agreement, another potential black mark for labor.
• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: There's something almost Shakesperean (or Freudian?) about this story: father and son Reid are both looking at each other as dragging down each others' poltiical fortunes. Rory sees Harry's presence on the ballot as hampering his potential gubernatorial run, while Harry sees Rory's run as hurting his senate re-election bid.
• TX-Sen: There's been increasing chatter about a run for the Democratic Republican Senate nomination in the possibly-upcoming special election by Dallas mayor Tom Leppert. He'd start out at a financial and name rec disadvantage compared with Bill White and John Sharp, though, having just been in office for half a term.
• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett may be in for some tough sledding in the GOP primary in the Utah Senate race, but he can count on the support of his fellow Senator Orrin Hatch, who gave Bennett a full-throated endorsement last week. Buried in the story, though, is something more troubling: Bennett managed to finish in last place at a Utah County GOP straw poll, where AG Mark Shurtleff won with 42% and ultra-right weirdo Cherilyn Eager got 32%. Bennett is also challenging the legality of Shurtleff's fundraising; Bennett alleges commingling of federal and state accounts at Shurtleff's Wasatch Shotgun Blast fundraising picnic (Utah has very lax limits on state fundraising).
• AZ-Gov: A poll for Arizona Capital Times has, buried in the fine print, some very alarming numbers for appointed GOP Gov. Jan Brewer. They don't poll her on head-to-heads, but she has perilously low re-elects: 18% say they'll vote for her, 46% say they'll vote for someone else, and 36% are undecided. More evidence that the anti-governor tide is high on both sides of the aisle. Sensing her vulnerability (following a budget standoff in which the conservative Brewer found herself to the left of her legislature), primary opponents are considering the race, including state Treasurer Dean Martin and polarizing Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.
• GA-Gov: There are now seven viable candidates running for the GOP nomination for Georgia Governor, as state Sen. Jack Jeff Chapman, who represents Brunswick on the coast, got in the race. The little-known Chapman has ruffled some feathers fighting overdevelopment along the coast.
• NH-Gov: John DiStaso points to a couple GOP challengers sniffing out the race against Democratic incumbent Gov. John Lynch, one of the few gubernatorial races left in the country that falls in either "Safe" category. Leading the way is behind-the-scenes conservative activist Karen Testerman, founder of Cornerstone Family Research, who apparently feels ready to step in front of the curtain. Another rumored name is state Sen. Chuck Morse. Little-known businessman Jack Kimball is the only confirmed candidate.
• VA-Gov: We've had a deluge of polls in Virginia in the last week, some showing some a tightening race, some not. The newest offering from SurveyUSA definitely falls into the "not" column, giving Republican AG Bob McDonnell a 54-42 lead over Democratic state Sen. Creigh Deeds (the same margin as their previous poll). Crosstabs show that Deeds has pulled into the lead in northern Virginia, but is still way behind in the rest of the state.
• VT-Gov: Here's someone actually considering switching from the Dems to the GOP: state Auditor Tom Salmon, whose father was Democratic governor in the 1970s and who defeated incumbent GOPer Randy Brock in 2006. Republicans are trying to spin this as a referendum on local Dems being too liberal, but there may be some garden-variety ambition behind this: Salmon says he plans to run for re-election, but may also be considering a run for Governor if Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie doesn't run, and this seems an easier way to get into the general election than through the already-crowded Dem field.
• AK-AL: Rep. Don Young, who recently drew a strong Democratic challenger in the form of state Rep. Harry Crawford, will also have to run the gauntlet of a strong primary opponent too. Businessman Andrew Halcro, who got nearly 10% of the vote in his independent campaign for governor in 2006 and since then has seen his profile increase via his anti-Sarah Palin blogging efforts, said he'll run against Young as a GOPer. Crawford gets good notices from local observers, using words like "old-school," "blue-collar," "backwoods," and "gritty" to describe him, which may be a better matchup against the crusty former tugboat captain than the more polished Ethan Berkowitz was last year.
• IL-07: Rep. Danny Davis made it official; he's out of the House in 2010. He'll be running for Cook County Board President instead. The 7th is D+35, so spare us the hand-wringing.
• IL-14: This could take us up to five Republicans vying to take back the 14th from Democratic Rep. Bill Foster: state Senator Randy Hultgren is now exploring the race. This could get more than a little inconvenient for crown prince Ethan Hastert, the presumed GOP frontrunner: remember that a bitter primary between dairy magnate Jim Oberweis and st. Sen. Chris Lauzen put a crimp on GOP chances in the 2008 special election here that Foster won.
• LA-02: I don't know if there was anyone out there fretting that we weren't going to get a top-tier Democratic candidate to go up against Rep. Joe Cao, but if there was, they can rest easy. State Sen. Cedric Richmond, who didn't make it into the runoff in the primary against ex-Rep. Bill Jefferson last year, announced he'll run again in 2010. State Rep. Juan LaFonta and state Sen. Cheryl Gray are also likely Dem candidates in the D+25 seat.
• LA-03: Roll Call takes another look at the many players jostling to take over for Charlie Melancon in the now R+12 3rd. Dept. of Natural Resources head Scott Angelle gets top billing, but nobody is sure whether he'd run as a Democrat or Republican. On the Dem side, state Rep. Damon Baldone, state Rep. Fred Mills, Ascension Parish sheriff Jeff Wiley, and attorney Ravi Sangisetty also get mentions, while other prominent GOPers in the mix are Lafourche Parish sheriff Craig Webre, state Rep. Nickie Monica, former state House speaker Hunt Downer, Plaquemines Parish president Billy Nungesser Jr., and former state Senate candidate Jeff Landry. Complicating the candidates' decision to run is winning may be a pretty lame prize, seeing that the 3rd may be on the district elimination docket following the 2010 census, with parts of it possibly being subsumed into the nearby 2nd.
• MO-04: Sensing vulnerability or at least a possible retirement, a third Republican has piled on, against 33-year Rep. Ike Skelton. James Scholz, president of a computer security company, has filed to run. Skelton looks like he's going to stay and fight, though; he has five fundraisers scheduled for the next two months, including one with Steny Hoyer.
• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy may get a real challenge for once, from Kevin Cramer, the Republican chair of the state's Public Service Commission (which regulates utilities). Cramer lost two races to Pomeroy in the 1990s, but this time he points to an NRCC-commissioned internal poll that has him within 4 points of Pomeroy, 46-42.
• NC-11: Local physician Daniel Eichenbaum has been in contact with the NRCC about a run against Heath Shuler. His biggest selling point: if he wins, he promises to stay for only one term. (That ought to get the NRCC interested, seeing as how they just love open seats.)
• SC-03: A bit more winnowing of the field in the dark-red 3rd, as businessman and engineer Stuart Carpenter pulled the plug on his campaign and endorsed state Rep. Rex Rice.
• WA-09: Better-than-usual GOP prospects started eyeing Adam Smith's seat early this year, speculating that a special election might be in the offing if Smith (an early Obama endorser) got an administration job. That never happened, and now one of them, moderate state Rep. Tom Campbell (not to be confused with the moderate GOPer running for California governor), pulled out of his bid last week, sensing a complete lack of interest from the NRCC. Nevertheless, Pierce County Councilor Dick Muri remains in the race.
• Redistricting: Remember the new independent redistricting commission that was created to take responsibility for California's legislative districts? Now there's an initiative afoot to add jurisdiction for congressional districts to the panel as well. The initiative also includes some vague language about preserving "communities of interest," which, depending on how it's interpreted, could result in some smoothing-out of California's remarkably convoluted boundaries and thus some more competitive districts.
• CO-Sen: The Denver Post does some interesting digging into how former House speaker Andrew Romanoff wound up in the Senate Democratic primary against Michael Bennet after all. Governor Bill Ritter tried to give the Lt. Gov. spot to Romanoff after Barbara O'Brien left the position in January, but the deal collapsed, leaving Romanoff to decide on the primary instead this summer.
• IL-Sen: Chicago's city treasurer, Stephanie Neely, has decided not to run in the Senate primary. However, Chicago's inspector general David Hoffman seems to be taking tangible steps to get into the race, saying he'll make a formal announcement after Labor Day.
• MA-Sen: Rep. Stephen Lynch picked up filing papers for the Senate special election in Massachusetts, indicating he's likely to soon join Martha Coakley. Lynch, who represents a heavily blue-collar Catholic district based in south Boston, would likely be the only anti-abortion Democratic in the race, but he has strong ties with organized labor.
• MD-Gov: While most of the question marks surrounding the Maryland governor's race involve whether or not GOP ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich wants a rematch with current Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley, now some are wondering if O'Malley will face a primary challenge from former Prince George's Co. Executive Wayne Curry. Speculation centers on how O'Malley has nailed down endorsements from Dems all over the state but is missing some key endorsements from PG County.
• NJ-Gov: Wow, what is it with this guy? So it turns out that back in 2002, Chris Christie turned his sail barge the wrong way down a one-way street, struck a motorcyclist (who was taken to the hospital)... and didn't get a ticket. No claims about a tow-truck driver recognizing Christie this time - here, we know he identified himself to the officer on the scene. When he was asked if Christie's title affected the officer's decision not to issue a summons, the police director said "I don't think I want to make that kind of deduction, but I think the facts speak for themselves." Ouch. (D)
• OR-Gov: Lots of movement in the Oregon governor's race now that John Kitzhaber is in. Democratic state Rep. Brian Clem (who had set up an exploratory committee a few months ago) quickly moved to endorse Kitzhaber and not just get out of the way but join Kitz's campaign as a director. Meanwhile, Republican state Senator Jason Atkinson -- who finished third in the GOP primary in 2006 and has "next in line" status -- informally told his hometown paper, the Medford Mail-Tribune, that "he's running," although the formal announcement won't happen for a while. Finally, it sounds like Rep. Peter DeFazio is making a move to... do something. He's still considering the race, but will make a decision "around Labor Day," which is soon.
• SC-Gov: Here's a tea leaf that Jim Rex, who'd be the Dems's strongest candidate, seems likely to get in the gubernatorial race. In the midst of touring the state and raising money, he says he won't run for another term as Superintendent of Education.
• AZ-01: It sounds like the GOP has a candidate lined up in the 1st, to against freshman Dem Ann Kirkpatrick, who's a definite improvement over the sad Sydney Hay from last time. Former state Senate majority leader Russell "Rusty" Bowers (also a former state Rep., and now a sand-and-gravel industry lobbyist) seems like he's set to run.
• IN-08: The NRCC, however, wasn't able to pin down a challenger to Brad Ellsworth in the 8th. Former Vandenburgh County Commissioner and county assessor Cheryl Musgrave decided not to run against Ellsworth, although she is considering a state House run instead against incumbent Dem Gail Riecken.
• PA-03: The GOP had been previously struggling to find anyone at all to go against freshman Dem Kathy Dahlkemper, but now they've landed someone fairly impressive sounding. John Onorato (not to be confused with Dem gubernatorial candidate Dan Onorato) is the former Erie County Solicitor (analogous to DA in most states), giving him a large constituency to build on.
• SD-AL: State Rep. Shantel Krebs of Sioux Falls said that she's considering challenging Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in 2010. Krebs would likely need to get past Chris Nelson, the state's two-term Secretary of State, in the GOP primary though; he's also in the "considering" phase. (Remember that South Dakota House districts are teeny constituencies, with only 22,000 residents each.)
• NYC-Mayor: One more SurveyUSA poll of the Dem primary in the Big Apple. William Thompson and Mark Green have pretty clear paths in the Mayor and Public Advocate primaries (Thompson leads Tony Avella 52-14), but check out the Comptroller's race. It's a three-way slugfest between three city councilors: 25% for John Liu, 24% for Melinda Katz, and 21% for David Yassky.
• Ads: The DNC, via Organizing for America, is running cable TV spots for four potentially vulnerable House Dems, thanking them for their pro-stimulus votes: Ben Chandler, Martin Heinrich, Travis Childers, and Zack Space.
• Polling: The Masters of the Crosstabs were all on hand to do a panel on polling at Netroots Nation last month: Charlie Cook, Mark Blumenthal, Nate Silver, and Charles Franklin, moderated by Greg Dworkin (aka DemFromCT). At the link, you'll find a video of their session. (Charlie gives a nice shout-out to SSP at about 7:40, and again at 80:20, where he talks about the "growing sophistication of the blogosphere.") (D)
• Humor: Autotune the News 8 is out, in case you've ever wanted Joe Biden to sing you a slow jam.
Having had some time to let the passing of Ted Kennedy sink in, speculation inevitably turns to who succeeds him (and when). There hasn't been an open Senate seat in Massachusetts since 1984, so there's a backlog of long-time Representatives with huge bank accounts all trying to crash the door at the same time... and with a mid-term special election meaning no one would have to give up a safe seat to run, expect a lot of people running.
While Massachusetts currently has a system where there is no gubernatorial appointment but rather a mid-term special election (a result of a legislative change passed in 2004 to prevent Mitt Romney from appointing a Republican successor to John Kerry), there is now a push to update the law to a system more like what is done in Texas: a short-term appointment until the special election can be held. This was suggested by Kennedy himself in a letter released a week prior to his death (which met some initial resistance last week), but with Democrats painfully aware that Kennedy's absence leaves Senate Democrats at 59 and at least one vote short on a health care reform cloture vote, momentum is building for a quick post-Labor Day vote that would change the law again to allow for the short-term appointment. Governor Deval Patrick said on MSNBC that he would sign such a bill, and state House Speaker Robert DeLeo has given it his tacit approval.
Roll Call suggests that, if this passes, the short-term appointee is unlikely to be someone who would contest the special election. They point to former Governor (and Presidential candidate) Michael Dukakis as a likely appointee; he has already given assurances that he will not run in the special.
The next question is: what's the timetable on the special election? It doesn't seem like any changes to the law regarding interim appointment will involve changes to the special election timetable. The Hill calculates:
The special election must be held between 145 and 160 days after the vacancy occurs. Since Kennedy died late Tuesday, that puts the window between Jan. 17 and Feb. 1. Holding the race on a Tuesday, a traditional Election Day, would mean Jan. 18, Jan. 25 or Feb. 1.
So who runs, among the Democrats, in the special? Speculation centers on as many as five of the state's ten Democratic House members, and two former House members as well.
Rep.
District
Age
CoH
Ed Markey
MA-07
63
$2.89 mil
Richard Neal
MA-02
60
$2.5 mil
Stephen Lynch
MA-09
54
$1.39 mil
John Tierney
MA-06
57
$1.29 mil
Michael Capuano
MA-08
57
$1.2 mil
Martin Meehan
was MA-05
52
$4.8 mil
Joe Kennedy II
was MA-08
56
$1.7 mil
One high-profile House member who has already indicated that he won't run is Barney Frank. The 69-year-old Frank is at the pinnacle of his power as House Financial Services Chair. Ed Markey is a something of a question mark; he's also one of the most powerful House members, as a 33-year veteran and chair of the Energy and Environment Subcommittee of the Energy and Commerce Committee, making it less likely he'd be willing to give up his gavel... but there's also no question he's been stockpiling money for this very contingency for many years.
The remaining members of the House delegation are 72-year-old John Olver (considered a likely retiree soon), 68-year-old Bill Delahunt, 63-year-old Niki Tsongas (who just got to the House), and 49-year-old Jim McGovern. McGovern, based in Worcester's MA-03, is sitting only only $536K, which apparently isn't enough for prognosticators to consider him a likely candidate.
Former Reps Meehan and Kennedy are also question marks. Meehan has by far the most money of anyone, and has been sitting on it in miserly fashion since leaving the House to become chancellor of UMass-Lowell. Although he's reportedly happily ensconced in his new job, his hunger for a Senate seat while still in the House was palpable, and the fact that he's still hoarding his cash is a red flag. Kennedy has a huge intangible advantage, perhaps a field-clearing one, in that, well, he's a Kennedy, and there's understandable sentiment about keeping at least one Kennedy in the Senate. Kennedy, however, has been out of office for a while, and a subsequent ugly divorce and controversy of Venezuelan oil deals may cast a bit of a shadow over him. (Plus, more generally, the Kennedy name may not have the iconic power it used to, as seen in the Caroline Kennedy and Chris Kennedy flameouts this year, as well as the 2002 loss of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.)
There are two other non-House, female candidates who could make the race. One is Kennedy's widow, Vicki Kennedy, who hasn't held office but could be a sentimental favorite; however, indications are that she isn't interested in running (although she could be another possible short-term appointee). The other is AG Martha Coakley, who has had her eye on the Senate seat for some time, polling the race several times. While she doesn't have a big stash of federal dollars like the other candidates (she has only $144K), she would bring something of a demographic advantage to the race by being the only woman, as well as the only statewide official. Coakley has been quick to hit cable TV in the last couple days.
There must be some Republicans to run, right? What passes for GOP top talent in the Bay State (Christy Mihos, Charlie Baker) is already looking at the Governor's race, where they've been historically more successful and where Patrick is unpopular. That leaves former Lt. Gov. (and 2006 gubernatorial loser) Kerry Healey, former US Attorney Michael Sullivan, former Ambassador Chris Egan, state Senator Scott Brown, former Justice Dept. official Wayne Budd, and businessman David Sukoff as GOPers who've been mentioned. Former Bush CoS Andy Card, and Jim Ogonowski, who ran well in the MA-05 special election, are reportedly not interested.
There's one other name being floated: former Governor Mitt Romney. To most observers, that's comical, considering that Romney a) is busy running for President, and won't want to get involved in the relatively small ball time-suck of the Senate, and b) didn't run for re-election as Massachusetts Governor because he would have had his ass handed to him, after veering to the right in order to prep for his Prez run and repeatedly dissing hisown state while doing so. US News's delusional Peter Roff still sounds hopeful, saying that the fact that being in the Senate would help Romney prove his conservative bona fides -- but offering no evidence for Romney's electability in Massachusetts other than his 100% name ID.
Meanwhile, there's one other entirely separate game of musical chairs: Senate committee assignments. Kennedy was chair of Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (or HELP), one of the two key Senate committees on health care reform. The acting chair of HELP while Kennedy was out has been Chris Dodd, who has been doing double-duty while also chairing Banking. The ball's basically in Dodd's court now: whether he wants to switch full-time to HELP, or go back to Banking. This actually impacts his re-election strategy, interestingly: does he go to HELP, and focus on building accomplishments there in order to distract from lingering dissatisfaction (not necessarily deserved, but either way, the perception is there, especially regarding the AIG bonuses) from his tenure at Banking? Or does he go back to Banking in order to show his constituents he's focused on cleaning up the mess there? (State Sen. Sam Caligiuri, one of his minor GOP contenders, is already jumping on Dodd over possibly moving to HELP.)
So, if Dodd moves to HELP, that means Tim Johnson of South Dakota takes over Banking. However, the moderate Johnson is still slowed by his brain hemmorhage from several years past, and has been a low-key participant since then; he might defer to the 3rd in line, the much more liberal Jack Reed of Rhode Island, which would certainly improve our chances of robust re-regulation of Wall Street in the coming year.
On the other hand, if Dodd stays at Banking, Tom Harkin is 2nd in line at HELP. While Harkin certainly has had a stake in such issues, he may prefer to remain as chair of Agriculture, the defining issue in his state of Iowa. Either way, we'd then likely get the only female committee chair: if Harkin stays at Agriculture, 3rd in line to chair HELP would be Barbara Mikulski. If Harkin moves to HELP, the Ag order then goes Patrick Leahy (chair of Judiciary), Kent Conrad (chair of Budget), and Max Baucus (chair of Finance). It's hard to see any of them wanting to give up those gavels, so next in line to lead Agriculture would be Arkansas's Blanche Lincoln -- which might give her something valuable to honk her horn about as she faces a potentially difficult re-election.
UPDATE (James L.): This shouldn't be considered a surprise to anyone with their head properly screwed on, but Mittens says that he won't run for Teddy's seat.
