SSP Daily Digest: 9/2 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 3:03 PM EDT

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist's out with an internal today from Fredrick Polls, and while it gives him the lead, it's a small enough edge compared with his rather robust leads pre-Dem primary that it shouldn't fill anybody with much confidence about where his trendlines are headed. He leads Marco Rubio and Kendrick Meek 35-34-17. That comes against the backdrop of getting squeezed in both directions, with the NRSC "pledging" (I don't know what that means, but it's not actual reservations) $2.5 million for the race, and Meek airing a new radio ad going after Crist's GOP past, airing Crist's own words, including calling himself "pro-life" and a "Jeb Bush Republican." At least Crist is getting some backing from one rather unusual corner: state Sen. Al Lawson, who just lost the FL-02 primary to Allen Boyd, just endorsed Crist.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Maybe I should've been patient yesterday instead of complaining about Quinnipiac's lack of New York primary numbers, because they rolled them out today. At any rate, they find, as I'd suspected, things tightening in the GOP gubernatorial primary: Rick Lazio leads Carl Paladino 47-35. ("Tightening" may not be the right word, as this is their first look at the NY-Gov primary, but it's what other pollsters have seen.) In the Senate special election, Joe DioGuardi leads David Malpass and Bruce Blakeman, 28-12-10. And in another sign that Democratic voters are only dimly aware that there's an election this year, fully 77% of Dem voters have no idea who they'll vote for in the Attorney General's race. Kathleen Rice leads Eric Schneiderman by a margin of 4-3. (That's not a typo.)

• WI-Sen: Ron Johnson has been outspending Russ Feingold 3-to-1 on the TV airwaves, which goes a long way to explaining why this is a tied race, but that may not matter much if he keeps stepping on his own free-market-fundamentalist message. Johnson found himself, in a recent radio interview, tying himself into knots by praising Communist China for having a more favorable investment climate for business than America, in part because of its "certainty." So, let's see... to stop America's descent into socialism, we need to become more like the Communists, because the path to freedom is actually through the kind of "certainty" that comes from a command economy? Finally, this is probably too little too late, but Terence Wall, the guy who dropped out in a huff from the GOP field after the state convention, is now publicly touting the idea of a write-in campaign in the upcoming primary. I don't know if he actually thinks he has a shot against a stumbling Johnson or is just engaged in some last-minute sour grapes.

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin continues to rake in the bucks in the West Virginia Senate special election. (Facing self-funding John Raese, the money issue is the main threat to Manchin... well, that, and the perilously low approvals for national Dems here.) He reported raising $393K last week, bringing his total to $1.5 million. Raese reported $717K, but $520K of that was self-funded, with only $22K from donors.

• AZ-Gov: This may not get much press in the wake of her amazing debate performance, but Jan Brewer is also engaged in an interesting strategy of retaliation, pulling her campaign ads off the local CBS affiliate, whose news department dared to question Brewer's relationship with a key advisor who's also connected to private prison company Corrections Corporation of America, which stands to make significant money incarcerating illegal immigrants rounded up under Arizona's SB 1070. That's not the same station whose reporter aggressively questioned Brewer post-debate last night... my advice to Brewer would be to go ahead and stop advertising on all local network affiliates as punishment. That'll show 'em!

• CO-Gov: This may be kind of repetitive, but Dan Maes again turned down calls to drop out of the race today, after former state Senate president John Andrews withdrew his endorsement and told him to get out. Andrews wasn't alone in the endorsement rescinding department: it looks like the whole ooops-no-I-actually-wasn't-an-undercover-cop-in-Kansas thing was the fridge too far for former GOP Senator Hank Brown, who is now saying he's "looking around" for a new candidate. Meanwhile, on the touchy subject of water law, maybe Maes should take a page from Scott McInnis and just plagiarize all his work on the subject, as at least that way he wouldn't appear completely ignorant of the law. He just introduced an entirely new water law doctrine with his proclamation that "If it starts in Colorado, it's our water" - ignoring the 7-state compact on use of Colorado River water and the whole concept of prior appropriation. As much as I'd like to see Jan Brewer using the Arizona National Guard to invade Colorado and reclaim its water, I don't think the courts would let it get to that point.  

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink is expanding her current TV advertising buy, throwing another $600K into keeping her introductory spot on the air in a number of non-Miami markets. Oddly, Rick Scott has been taking the week off since the primary, at least from advertising.

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber has finally decided to go negative on Chris Dudley... it might be too little too late, but at least he's recognizing what he needs to do (as recently as last week, he negged a DGA ad that went negative on Dudley... and this is the first time he's aired a negative ad since 1994). The ad attacks Dudley for having "never managed anything" and never "shown much interest in Oregon" before (as seen in his decision to live in income-tax-free Washington while playing for the Trail Blazers).

• CT-04: Republican state Sen. Dan Debicella offers up a recent internal poll, via National Research. It has him within 4 points of Rep. Jim Himes, trailing 42-38 (the same 4-point margin seen in the recent round of AAF polling).

• FL-25: Here's an offensive opportunity for House Dems that nobody should be writing off. Joe Garcia posted a lead in a recent internal poll (taken in wake of the primary, and revelations about various unsavory moments from Republican opponent David Rivera's past) for his campaign. Garcia leads by 4 points in the poll from Benenson, 40-36 (with 5 for the Tea Party candidate and 1 for the Whig).

• MO-03: Republican challenger Ed Martin got the endorsement of the Missouri Farm Bureau, a change from their backing of Russ Carnahan in previous cycles. Carnahan didn't show up for his meeting with the Farm Bureau, although it's unclear whether that's why he didn't get endorsed or if he felt the endorsement was already lost.

• NH-02: EMILY's List, Planned Parenthood, and NARAL are all coordinating their efforts in favor of Ann McLane Kuster ahead of the Dem primary in the 2nd, where's she's running against Katrina Swett, who has supported parental notification laws. In addition to a joint rally, they're sending out a joint mailer together.

• PA-12: The NRCC is out with a poll, via POS, of the 12th, giving Tim Burns a small lead in his rematch against special election victor Mark Critz. Burns leads 48-43, quite the reversal from Critz's 53-45 win in May. (Bear in mind that POS's final released poll before that election gave Burns a 2-point lead.)

• Rasmussen:
• AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 44%, Joe Miller (R) 50%
• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 45%
• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 46%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

SSP Daily Digest: 8/24 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 3:25 PM EDT

• PA-Sen: This is going to be a hard one for Pat Toomey to explain without some high-impact semantic gymnastics. At the Pennsylvania Press Club yesterday, Toomey said "I've never said I favor privatizing Social Security." The DSCC promptly rolled out 36 different newspaper articles in which Toomey favored privatizing Social Security. We Ask America did offer some sustenance for Toomey, though: they find him leading Joe Sestak 48-35.

• FL-Gov: Here's a bad sign for the Republican Party of Florida (aka RPOF, pronounced "rip-off"), who poured a lot of money into carrying Bill McCollum across the finish line in the primary and will have to keep propping him up for November. They're down to $54K in their federal campaign finance account (after plowing much of their holdings into outside committees backing McCollum). Maybe they'd been counting on a reimbursement check from disgraced former state party chair Jim Greer to help fill their coffers a bit, but here's the ultimate ignominy: Greer's $7K check to reimburse the party for overcharges bounced.

• LA-03: Politico has a preview of the Republican primary in the open seat 3rd (which will be decided this Saturday, don't forget). Former state House speaker Hunt Downer is pretty universally considered frontrunner, but he faces a double-teabagging from attorney Jeff Landry and engineer Kristian Magar, who are pointing to his decades as a Democrat, and his snubbing of Tea Party events. Downer's fate could rest on whether he clears the 50% mark and avoids a runoff, as he could face more trouble against just one opponent.

• MI-01, MI-07: It looks like the Tea Party won't be getting a ballot line in Michigan, after a 2-2 decision by the state's Board of Canvassers. (The tie means they're kept off the ballot.) Republicans brought the challenge pointing to possible Democratic involvement in getting the Tea Party on the ballot (to the extent that a member of the Oakland County Dem leadership helped them). This probably has the greatest impact in the competitive races in the 1st and 7th, where the Tea Party had had candidates ready to go (Lonnie Lee Snyder and Danny Davis, respectively), presumably who would eat into the GOP's vote share.

• NJ-06: Who knew that when Facebook was created that it'd become a preferred venue for leaking internal polls? Anna Little, the surprise victor in the NJ-06 GOP primary, is now touting a poll from National Research showing her trailing Rep. Frank Pallone 40-34.

• OR-05: One other GOP internal poll kicking around today: state Rep. Scott Bruun, is out with a poll via local Republican pollster Bob Moore giving him a 41-38 lead over freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader.

• Ads: The big ad of the day may be Harry Reid's newest attack on Sharron Angle in NV-Sen, using her own words to seize on her claims that the state aid package was "money laundering." Ted Strickland in OH-Gov is also out with a new ad, hitting John Kasich again on his ties to Lehman Brothers. Two House members facing credible challenges this year are also out with their first ads of the season: Republican Lee Terry in NE-02, focusing on his hatred of pork, and Democrat Martin Heinrich in NM-01, focusing on his constituent services.

• Outside Money: The Washington Post has a fantastic new little tool, in the form of a sortable chart that keeps track of outside expenditures by unions, Republican front groups, assorted weirdos, and all other manner of interest groups outside the two parties. Fun fact: did you know that Robert Kirkland (who spent $2.1 million) is #5 overall in total IEs for 2010 (on behalf of his brother Ron's losing GOP primary run in TN-08), more than the Club for Growth, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, or even the DSCC?

• Rasmussen:
• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 46%
• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 40%, Roy Blunt (R) 51%
• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 44%, Chris Dudley (R) 45%

SSP Daily Digest: 8/24 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 8:12 AM EDT

"There's so many options when it comes to privatization. I would have to look at each plan that's being proposed... but I would certainly consider looking at it."

SSP Daily Digest: 8/11 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Wed Aug 11, 2010 at 4:34 PM EDT

• KY-Sen: Is this really the kind of headlines that Rand Paul (or any candidate, for any office) would want to be seeing today? "Woman Says Paul Did Not Kidnap Her," and "Paul Apologizes for Fancy Farm Beer Flub." The former story isn't that surprising, in that Paul's college acquaintance clarifies that the whole let's-tie-her-up-make-her-smoke-pot-and-pray-to-a-graven-idol thing was more of a consensual hazing than an out-and-out kidnapping (of course, other than the "kidnapping" semantics, all that Bong Hits for Aqua Buddha stuff still seems to stand). The latter story has its roots in Paul's worries that the audience at the Fancy Farm church picnic (the same ones who got the vapors last year when Jack Conway used the words "son of a bitch") were going to start throwing beer at him - even though the event was dry. Having realized that you don't go around dissing politically-legendary church picnics unless you have the political instincts of a brick, Paul later apologized.

• LA-Sen: Southern Media & Opinion Research finds that David Vitter leads Charlie Melancon 46-28, not much changed since their last poll from spring, where Vitter led 49-31. They also take a look at the Republican Senate primary, finding (as did POS a few weeks ago) that Chet Traylor is really turning into something of a paper tiger: Vitter leads Traylor 78-4! They also do a quick look at the jungle-style Lt. Governor special election, giving the lead to current Republican SoS Jay Dardenne at 26.

• OR-Gov: Well, it seems like the John Kitzhaber campaign has finally acknowledged what the blogosphere realized a while ago, that it's time to shake things up and bring in a more feisty and uptempo approach. That's hopefully what they're doing with a new campaign manager, Patricia McCaig. Interestingly, McCaig is a former right-hand woman to ex-Gov. Barbara Roberts, who Kitzhaber shoved over in 1994 and whose relations with Kitz have been rocky since then.

• AZ-03: Will today's double-whammy be enough to knock Ben Quayle out of his seeming frontrunner position in the GOP primary in the 3rd? Rocked by controversy over having denied and then having gotten outed as having written pseudonymously for sleazy local website DirtyScottsdale.com (a forerunner to today's TheDirty.com), he's out with a TV spot that he hopes will take some of the heat off. Unfortunately for him, the ad seems to have gotten an almost universally derisive reaction, based on his odd combination of hyperbolic claims ("Barack Obama is the worst president in history"), slow, droning delivery, and strange robotic motions.

• IA-03: When we moved Leonard Boswell in the 3rd to Tossup a few weeks ago, we weren't fooling around. A second Republican poll was released today giving his GOP challenger, state Sen. Brad Zaun, a decent-sized lead: Victory Enterprises, on behalf of the Polk County GOP and not the Zaun camp, finds a 45-38 lead for Zaun. (There was also a June poll giving Zaun a 41-32 lead. It was also by Victory Enterprises, and shared the same Republican-friendly party ID composition, but that one was for the Zaun campaign.)

• OR-05: He's Scott Bruun, and he drives a truck. He also supports privatizing Social Security. Or doesn't he? Bruun has reversed himself several times on how he frames the issue, depending on who his audience is, but either way, he seems to be relying on the Paul Ryan roadmap for his ideas.

• Passages: Here's a sad bookend to yesterday's death of Ted Stevens: today's death of another legendary, long-time Congressman who was a master at horse-trading and pork-wrangling, this one from the other side of the aisle. Former Rep. Dan Rostenkowski, one of the biggest Democratic names to fall in 1994, died at age 82.

• Rasmussen:
• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 38%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%
• FL-Sen: Jeff Greene (D) 20%, Marco Rubio (R) 36%, Charlie Crist (I) 37%
• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 40%
• TN-Gov: Mike McWherter (D) 31%, Bill Haslam (R) 56%
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 48%, Dave Westlake (R) 39%

SSP Daily Digest: 8/2 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 3:22 PM EDT

Also on the weird timing front, Washington's Republican SoS, Sam Reed, is just out with a new book on the 2004 gubernatorial election and the protracted recount and court challenges he oversaw. Relations between Reed and the rest of the state Republicans were severely tested during the recount, seeing as how the scrupulous Reed wanted to, y'know, follow the rules. While the book doesn't seem to paint Rossi in a terribly unfavorable light, it can't help but remind everyone of his "perennial candidate" status.

• AZ-Gov: You might recall that NRA board member Owen Buz Mills recently ended his GOP primary campaign against the once-endangered, now-all-powerful Jan Brewer several weeks ago. Well, he's not quite done, his spokesperson is now saying: he's going to enter a Rob Simmons-style state of electoral limbo. Mills won't be spending any more money on the race, but he will leave his name on the ballot. (Other dropouts Dean Martin and John Munger have filed papers of formal withdrawal from the race.)

• OR-Gov, OR-05: Now that Oregon has opted to join New York in the weird world of fusion voting, now it even has its own Independent Party trying to quirkily play it down the middle. Based on its online straw poll of members (with a vote total of a whopping 2,290), the IP gave its backing to Democrat John Kitzhaber in the gubernatorial race, but to Republican state Rep. Scott Bruun in OR-05 (instead of incumbent Dem Kurt Schrader).

• TX-Gov: A number of prominent Dallas business leaders have signed on to a letter announcing their support for Bill White in the gubernatorial race. About half of the signatories, a mix of moderate Republicans and independents, are, in fact, former Kay Bailey Hutchison supporters.

• WY-Gov: I think this trumps her earlier Wilford Brimley endorsement. State auditor Rita Meyer (the only woman in the four-way GOP primary field) got added to Sarah Palin's stable of Mama Grizzlies late last week.

• AL-02, AL-05: The "generally conservative" Alabama Farmer's Federation handed out helpful endorsements to two Dems today: not just to Rep. Bobby Bright (who seems to fit their profile well) but also to Steve Raby, running in the 5th. Raby seems well connected with the agriculture world through his former work for ex-Sen. Howell Heflin.

• MI-02, MI-03: A poll for the Grand Rapids Press, taken by Practical Political Consulting, looks at the GOP primaries in the two western Michigan open seats. In the 2nd (Peter Hoekstra's seat), former NFL player and Family Research Council executive Jay Riemersma has a small lead at 22, followed by former state Rep. Bill Huizenga and teabagging businessman Bill Cooper, both at 15, and state Sen. Wayne Kuipers at 13. In the 3rd (Vern Ehlers' seat), state Rep. Justin Amash (anointed as chosen one by the DeVos family) leads at 28, followed by African-American state Sen. Bill Hardiman at 23 and ex-Kent Co. Commissioner Steve Heacock (the moderate in the field, and Ehlers' endorsee) at 17.

• FL-12: We keep mentally writing this race off due to Lori Edwards' paltry fundraising, and then polling evidence to the contrary shows up. For the second time, the Edwards camp has released an internal poll giving them a lead in this R+6 open seat. Edwards leads GOP ex-state Rep. Dennis Ross 35-32 in a poll taken by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. The catch here is one of the most legitimate Tea Party candidates anywhere is here: Randy Wilkinson, a Polk Co. Commissioner who briefly sought the GOP nomination before deciding to go the third-party route. Wilkinson polls at 20%, although we'll have to see if the near-broke Wilkinson can keep those numbers up through November.

• TN-03: Newt Gingrich handed out a last-minute seal of approval in the GOP primary in the 3rd. He's backing the more-or-less establishment candidate, former state GOP chair Robin Smith. Smith's main opponent is Chuck Fleischmann, a partly-self-funding attorney who seems tighter with the Mike Huckabee crowd than the teabaggers.

• WA-03: The Beltway media seems to take it as an article of faith that GOP state Rep. Jaime Herrera is going to be Denny Heck's opponent in November, but David Castillo shouldn't be counted out. Not being on the ground, they wouldn't pick up on the general sense of underwhelmingness that seems to surround Herrera, but it seems like they would, at some point, have noticed that nearly all the endorsements of consequence in the district have gone to Castillo. He got endorsements from the newspapers in Vancouver, Longview, and Centralia, as well as the out-of-district Seattle Times. AG Rob McKenna, probably the state's best-liked Republican, had endorsed Castillo before Rep. Brian Baird's retirement and Herrera's entry, but he's been pointedly sticking by his endorsement, hosting a Castillo fundraiser last week.

• House: Nate Silver's out with a new toy that SSPers will certainly be interested in: having found that Democratic House candidates tend to overperform vis-à-vis presidential numbers in districts with lower median household income, he's created a new index that's a mashup of prez numbers and income, called the Partisan Propensity Index. (He looked at only results in open seat races, which eliminates the main problem with trying to fit House numbers on top of prez numbers, which is the overwhelming staying power of incumbents.) At the end of the day, it's still not too different from PVI, inasmuch as Chet Edwards has the worst district of any Dem and Joe Cao has the worst district of any GOPer, but it does reflect the reality that suburban Sun Belt districts that are truly swingy at the presidential level are a harder nut for Dems to crack at the House level than rural Appalachian districts that are red at the presidential level.

• Rasmussen:
• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 36%, Mary Fallin (R) 57%
• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 39%, Pat Toomey (R) 45%
• SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 35%, Nikki Haley (R) 49%
• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%
• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%, Clint Didier (R) 45%
• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%, Paul Akers (R) 42%
• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Mark Neumann (R) 44%
• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Scott Walker (R) 50%

Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings - August

by: conspiracy

Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 11:04 AM EDT

Rankings are 'Tilt' (less than 5 point race), 'Lean' (5-10 point race) and 'Favored '(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is 'Solid' for either party.

SENATE
Dem Tilt
IL (Absolute deadheat but since the topic of conversation is all about Kirk I'm giving it Alexi in such a blue state.)
NV (I'm less certain this is has become clear cut as some but Reid has definitely moved ahead at least for now.)
WI (Feingold never wins by whopping margins and races in Wisconsin always seem closer than most.)
WA (No fireable offence from Murray and decent approvals. Rossi has baggage and is only close because of the cycle.)

Rep Tilt
PA (Small lead for Toomey right now but I expect Sestak to improve his position when he gets better known.)
CO (Until the latest SurveyUSA poll both Buck and Norton lead both Dems. Until the primary shakes itself out we aren't going to see movement.)
KY (Paul has the lead because he has kept his mouth shut lately. Hopefully ads and debates will help Conway.)
OH (I fear this is a huge missed opportunity. Portman is ripe for attack but Fisher doesn't have resources to do it.)
MO (Will be close until the end and I still think Robin can do it despite the unsavory environment.)
NH (Ayotte has clearly been hurt recently but I'm skeptical Hodes can get over the top in this one.)

Dem Lean
CA (Small percentage lead for Boxer but much harder for a Republican to close that gap in real votes in California.)
FL*(I'm counting Crist as a Dem pickup though I still think there is a chance he caucuses with the GOP.)

Rep Lean
NC (Don't see Burr losing here. Not this year, not with his CoH advantage.)

Dem Favored
CT (Blumenthal should be fine since he managed to ride out his exaggerations far better than Mark Kirk.)
WV (Without Capito in the race Manchin should be fine so long as he doesn't coast.)

Rep Favored
IN (Ellsworth's problem is name recognition and bad environment. He will close here fast but not sure fast enough.)
LA (Melancon is doing well just to keep this remotely competitive. The electorate wants someone to oppose Obama 100%.)
AR (Blanche shocked everybody once so can she do it again? No. Though I think it will be closer by election day.)
DE (Coons will surprise many and narrow the gap further as we go on but like IN I'm not sure it will be enough.)

We can put ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS
Dem Tilt
OR (Polls are tied but have to give it to Kitzhaber for his campaigning skills and the lean of the state.)
MN (Emmer is killing himself rather than anything the Dems are doing. I think Dayton will get a clear win in the end.)
RI*(I'm counting Chafee as a Dem since he is arguably more liberal than the actual Dem nominee.)
MD (O'Malley hasn't committed a fireable offense and has decent approvals. Lean of the state should be enough.)
FL (The Republicans have nuked each other and Chiles looks like a non-factor.)
MA (Deval seems to be improving his approvals and Cahill means he has a decent shot at re-election.)
CA (Once Brown starts running ads he should be ok in such a blue state.)

Rep Tilt
GA (Barnes is an underdog in a red state but he is closer than he should be. Both Republicans have skeletons.)
IL (Brady leads but the lean of the state may be enough yet for Quinn if he can paint his opponent as too far right.)
ME (LePage is ahead but like in RI anything could happen here including an indie win.)
OH (Polling is mixed here but my best guess is Kasich has a narrow lead. Strickland can still pull it out though.)
VT (Dubie ahead here but probably more to do with name recognition than anything else. Suspect it will be close.)
TX (Bill White is doing a great job here but I expect the year and state is just too Republican.)
NM (Martinez with a small lead but Denish can win if she is able to seperate herself from Bill Richardson.)
WI (Small leads for both Republicans but Barrett was as good a nominee as Dems could get here. Still possible.)

Dem Lean
CO (What a mess for the GOP! Hick should win easily here unless McInnis drops out post-primary.)
CT (Lamont really should win this one and I think he will.)

Rep Lean
AZ (Great change in fortunes for Brewer. Maybe Goddard can make this close but I have my doubts.)
MI (Post-primary this may get interesting, especially if Hoekstra is the GOP nominee.)
PA (Onorato will close when he gets his name recognition up but PA has a pattern here that likely won't change.)
OK (Not as big a Fallin lead as I expected but the year and state makes it very hard for Askins.)

Dem Favored
HI (Abercrombie has a big lead and should win this going away.)

Rep Favored
IA (Branstad is popular and Culver is not. Only one outcome looks likely here.)
NV (Maybe Harry's improving fortunes helps Rory but Sandoval is no Sharron Angle!)
AL (Sparks is probably as good as it gets for Dems but a fresh face in Bentley in a GOP year makes this very tough.)
ID (Not as big a lead for the GOP as one would expect but it is still Idaho.)
KS (Brownback isn't exactly loved by the entire KS GOP but I can't see anything but a Holland defeat here.)
SC (Sheheen may shock people but again, red state in a terrible year for Dems means Governor Haley.)
SD (Daugaaurd is popular and once again, red state, GOP year.)
TN (McWherter is not his dad and the polls are ugly.)
UT (Herbert has anemic poll leads but it is Utah!)

Projection
SENATE - GOP +5
GOVERNORS - GOP +5

OR-Gov, OR-Sen: Small Lead for Dudley

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 1:55 AM EDT

John Kitzhaber (D): 44 (40)
Chris Dudley (R): 46 (47)
Other: 7 (6)
Undecided: 4 (7)

Ron Wyden (D-inc): 53 (51)
Jim Huffman (R): 35 (38)
Other: 9 (6)
Undecided: 3 (5)
(MoE: ±4.2%)

SurveyUSA is out with another poll of the Governor and Senate races in Oregon; the last one seemed very outlier-ish at the time, but with subsequent polls from a variety of pollsters all pointing to a tie or slight Dudley lead, this is very much in line with everyone else. (Rasmussen, for instance, just saw the Governor's race at 47-44 for Dudley and the Senate race at 51-35 for Wyden, eerily similar.) Another thing that leads me to be afraid this is close to the mark: the frequent SurveyUSA quirk with young voters isn't present here. The 18-34 set loves Kitzhaber, giving him a 51-39 edge; Dudley's lead is built on senior citizens.

Still, much of Kitzhaber's problem is that he hasn't bothered going on the air yet, partly because he anticipates being outspent and needs to conserve his resources, partly because (as I've belabored before) that he seems to be operating with the same ill-advised sage Zen-master sense of invincibility as Jerry Brown next door. If it's not working as well for Kitz, it's because Oregon isn't quite as blue as California, with the GOP-leaning hinterlands making up a bigger percentage of the state. At any rate, he seems to be realizing he needs to get his name out there, and he's out today with his first TV spot, a positive and job-o-centric ad.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/28 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 3:51 PM EDT

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Quinnipiac offers up polls of the major races in New York state today, and, try as they may, they just can't find anything interesting going on here, any more so than any other pollster. The main point of interest may be the GOP primaries; they find Rick Lazio leading Carl Paladino 39-23 in the gubernatorial primary, and Bruce Blakeman leading David Malpass 19-12 in the Senate primary (although Joe DioGuardi, who has submitted his petitions, really should be polled in that race too). In the general, they find Kirsten Gillibrand beating Blakeman 48-27 and Malpass 49-24. Andrew Cuomo defeats Lazio 56-26 and Paladino 55-25.

• WA-Sen: Having been on the receiving end of one of Fred Davis's abstract-expressionist attack ads, Patty Murray's out with her own first second TV spot of the election cycle, one that's relentlessly job-o-centric and focuses on her close links to the region's largest employer: Boeing. It's a panorama of Boeing workers thanking her for saving their jobs.

• FL-Gov: Bill McCollum's trailing in the polls of the GOP primary, but he got a boost from the Florida Chamber of Commerce, which is endorsing him. The Chamber also gave the cash-starved McCollum a $500K transfusion, although it went to McCollum-supporting 527 Florida First Initiative rather than directly to McCollum.

• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal got two presents, one good, one very bad. He got the endorsement for the runoff from fellow House member Jack Kingston, who had previously endorsed fellow Savannah resident Eric Johnson in the GOP primary. However, he also got news that a federal grand jury has issued subpoenas of Georgia's Revenue Commissioner, in its investigation of whether Deal personally intervened with him to protect a state auto inspection program that was particularly beneficial to the Deal family's auto salvage business. At least Deal isn't lagging on the fundraising front; both he and rival Karen Handel have raised about $500K each in the week since the primary.

• MI-Gov: Rumors keep on resurfacing regarding Republican AG Mike Cox's presence at an out-of-control mayoral mansion party hosted by now-disgraced former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, and they're back in the news again, inconveniently timed for him with the primary next week. An eyewitness has just signed an affidavit placing the religious-right Cox at the stripper-laden party. Meanwhile, Rick Snyder, who's actively trying to court Dems and indies to cross over to the GOP primary to vote for him, has rolled out an endorsement from a highly respected but long-ago GOP governor: William Milliken.

• MN-Gov: Alliance for a Better Minnesota is out with a new TV ad that's hitting Republican nominee Tom Emmer on one of his weakest spots (of which it turns out he has many). It criticizes him for voting to weaken drunk driving laws, and oh, just happening to point out that Emmer himself has twice been convicted of drunk driving. (The Alliance name is a little oblique, probably intentionally so, but they're a labor-backed 501(c)(4).)

• CO-04: Could Scott McInnis's implosion and Tom Tancredo's gubernatorial run actually help Democratic fortunes downballot, especially in the hotly-contested 4th? That's what Politico is wondering, with a piece looking at how reduced GOP turnout and/or increased interest in Constitution Party candidate Doug Aden might ultimately benefit Democratic freshman Rep. Betsy Markey.

• NH-02: If there's one competitive Democratic primary left where there's a pretty clear ideological contrast, it's in the 2nd. While Ann McLane Kuster is a netroots fave, Katrina Swett is on record as having supported the Bush-era tax cuts in 2002 (the decision of whether or not to extend said cuts is about to become an issue in Congress). Swett says she's being misrepresented, to the extent that only supported the middle-class parts of the tax cuts, although she didn't clarify whether or not she would have voted for the whole shebang.

• PA-06: Buried in a story about how Rep. Jim Gerlach has actually been giving money to the NRCC (to the tune of $44K just now, for a total of $100K all cycle) is news of an internal poll from a few weeks ago, which suggests he's not in the sort of imminent danger that would require him to horde cash. He's pointing to a Wilson Research poll from mid-July that gives him a 54-29 lead over Dem nominee Manan Trivedi.

• MI-Legislature: One state where we aren't hurting for details on the state of the state legislatures, thanks to Michigan Liberal's pbratt, is Michigan. He's out with pre-primary filing fundraising databases for both the Senate (Republican-controlled, but one of our best offensive opportunities) and the House (reliably Democratic-controlled).

• Meta: I've always wondered, if this is such an anti-incumbent year, where the losing incumbents actually are. The Fix's Aaron Blake is taking notice of the same thing, as we're on track to have not really any more of an anti-incumbent year than 2008. With really only one more House member who seems on track to lose a primary (Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick), that puts us on track for 4 primary losses for both parties in the House... exactly the same number as 2008. Winning a primary, of course, takes loads of money, and the thing that sets the successful challengers (Mike Oliverio or Mo Brooks, or Joe Sestak at the Senate level) apart from the vast array of the rabble attacking from both left and right is $$. It is worth observing, though, that the average incumbent winning percentage seems to be down this year from last cycle, with many incumbents winning ugly, in the 60-70% range. We'd need to investigate how much that average percentage has changed since 2008, though, before declaring a trend to be underway.

• Rasmussen:
• AL-Gov: Ron Sparks (D) 35%, Robert Bentley (R) 55%
• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 43%, Mark Kirk (R) 41%
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 43%
• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 44%, Chris Dudley (R) 47%

If you'd told me back in, say, January, that in late July Rasmussen would be finding Harry Reid winning and John Kitzhaber losing, I wouldn't have even laughed at you, I would have just picked up the phone and called for assistance from men in white suits with big butterfly nets.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/28 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 8:04 AM EDT

Meanwhile, McCollum had to deal with a small brush fire: former Florida House Speaker Alan Bense held a private meeting with Rick Scott over the weekend. The problem is that Bense is supposed to be a McCollum supporter - something he re-iterated after his soiree, saying he only got together with Scott to be polite. Bense is also the chairman-elect of the Florida Chamber of Commerce, and his group is expected to get behind Billy Mac. And in case anyone still cares what unlovable loser Gary Bauer thinks, he endorsed McCollum.

Rangel is still in talks with the ethics committee to try to reach some sort of plea bargain, but it seems that he's unwilling to cop to a sufficiently broad array of violations to satisfy the committee members. If Rangel can't come to terms, he'd face a "public hearing" (essentially a trial). As the New York Times points out, the last time this happened was in 2002, when Jim Traficant was expelled from the House.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/27 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 4:04 PM EDT

• DE-Sen: Christine O'Donnell, the forgotten right-winger in the Delaware GOP primary against Rep. Mike Castle, keeps hitting wingnut paydirt. Having already secured the Susan B. Anthony List endorsement, she's now getting backing from two more of the engines pulling the crazy train: the Tea Party Express (the corporate astroturf umbrella org for the teabaggers), and Concerned Women for America (Phyllis Schlafly's group). The Politico article includes a litany of O'Donnell's baggage as rattled off by Delaware's GOP state party chair, so it seems like the establishment is taking note and starting to push back.

• FL-Sen: Well, that was fast; I guess when you have a few hundred million dollars at your disposal, you can whip up ads pretty quickly (or just have  a couple extra sitting in the can, ready to go). With Kendrick Meek having launched his first Dem primary ad yesterday, a negative ad against Jeff Greene, today Greene hit back with two different anti-Meek ads. One focuses on Meek's family connections to a corrupt developer, and the other focuses on the cigar-maker carveout from SCHIP. As always, NWOTSOB.

• KY-Sen: The Jack Conway camp has leaked Daily Kos an internal from Benenson giving them a 44-44 tie with Rand Paul, and a 48-46 lead over Paul with leaners pushed. The poll's a little stale, having been taken June 26-29, but it's good news; if nothing else, it's confirmation for the most recent PPP poll, which also saw a tie. We have a copy of the full memo here. Another small reason for optimism in the Bluegrass State: there's word of a new (and apparently nameless, for now) 527 headed by former progressive Democratic '08 Senate candidate Andrew Horne, that will be playing in the Kentucky race. They have $2 million pledged by various business leaders to work with, and they've lined up Anzalone Liszt and Zata|3 to work for them.

• CT-Gov: This is one of my favorite headlines since "Lamborn Primaried by Local Crank": "Looney Backs Malloy in Governor's Bid." (Martin Looney is the state Senate majority leader.)

• FL-Gov: Taking a page from Raul Labrador, Bill McCollum's out with an internal. His own poll from McLaughlin & Associates finds him trailing Rick Scott 37-31. (The polling memo actually has the audacity to ask, "Why hasn't Rick Scott done better?")

• MD-Gov: Local pollster Gonzales Research is out with their second look at the Maryland gubernatorial race; they find a 45-42 lead for Martin O'Malley over Robert Ehrlich, which very closely echoes the PPP poll from a few weeks ago. Their trendlines go back to January, when a Ehrlich re-run was only vaguely being discussed; then, O'Malley had a 9-point lead.

• MN-Gov: Fundraising reports in Minnesota were due yesterday. GOPer Tom Emmer might well need to use that giant jar of pennies he had dumped on his table in order to buy some ad time, as he's lagging on the financial front. Emmer has less than $300K CoH and raised under $800K in the first six months of the year, while DFL endorsee Margaret Anderson Kelliher has $385K CoH and raised about $1 million. Kelliher, however, still might not get out of her primary against two rich guys: Matt Entenza raised $360K during that period but also loaned himself $3.5 million (and spent $3.9 million, mostly on TV ads). Mark Dayton hasn't filed yet.

• OR-Gov: Republican Chris Dudley is padding his financial advantage over John Kitzhaber in Oregon's gubernatorial race: he's raised $850K since the May 18 primary, compared with $269K for Kitzhaber. Dudley has raised $2.6 million all cycle long, compared with Kitz's $1.7 million. (One historical note, though: Ted Kulongoski was easily re-elected in 2006 despite being outspent by opponent Ron Saxton and his $7 million.) Much of Dudley's money seems to be coming in from out-of-state, as the former NBA player and current financial advisor is getting a lot of Wall Street and sports industry money. Interestingly, the timber industry, usually a Republican force in the state, is staying largely on the sidelines this election, as they're fairly friendly with Kitzhaber.

• TN-Gov: Having nowhere to go in the GOP primary polls but up, Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey is going the out-and-proud Islamophobe route. Spurred on by the ongoing controversy over the construction of a mosque in Murfreesboro, Ramsey, in response to a question at an appearance, said, "You could even argue whether being a Muslim is actually a religion or is it a nationality, way of life or cult, whatever you want to call it."

• ID-01: Raul Labrador, a conspicuous absence from the NRCC's anyone-with-a-pulse Young Guns program, says that he "opted out" of the Young Guns. (Yeah... just like I "opted out" of junior prom.) He didn't give a specific reason why, although tensions between him and the NRCC have been high.

• MN-03: I'm not exactly sure why Jim Meffert thought it was a good idea to release this internal, but I guess he needed to let people know that he's actually contesting this thing. His poll (no mention of the pollster in the article) finds him trailing freshman GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen 44-27, with 7% for an IP candidate. The number he'd probably like us to focus on is that Paulsen has only a 33% re-elect (although only 12% say they're a definite "no").

• MN-06: Seems like Johnny Law doesn't like Michele Bachmann's particularly freaky brand of law and order: the state's police union, the Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association, just gave its endorsement to Dem Tarryl Clark in the 6th.

• RI-01: The American Federation of Teachers, having just endorsed indie Lincoln Chafee instead of Dem Frank Caprio, also went for unconventional with their 1st District endorsement. They went for young up-and-comer state Rep. David Segal, who's tried to stake out the most progressive turf in the Dem primary, instead of Providence mayor and presumed frontrunner David Cicilline.

• TN-09: On top of having gotten SSP's annual John Hostettler Award for outstanding performance at filing quarterly reports (for failing to electronically file his FEC report on time, despite having only $19K CoH), Willie Herenton got a much worse piece of news: the Congressional Black Caucus either doesn't think much of his chances, or think much of him. Although they wouldn't let Steve Cohen join their club in 2007, they did just endorse him, and sent $5,000 his way.

• Rasmussen:
• AL-Sen: William Barnes (D) 29%, Richard Shelby (R-inc) 59%
• AZ-Sen (D): Rodney Glassman (D) 15%, Cathy Eden (D) 11%, Randy Parraz (D) 10%, John Dougherty (D) 7%
• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff (D) 40%, Jane Norton (R) 44%
• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 39%, Jane Norton (R) 48%
• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff (D) 42%, Ken Buck (R) 48%
• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 42%, Ken Buck (R) 48%
• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 38%, Charlie Baker (R) 32%, Tim Cahill (I) 17%

SSP Daily Digest: 7/19 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Mon Jul 19, 2010 at 3:30 PM EDT

• DE-Sen: The Susan B. Anthony List has endorsed minor-league primary challenger Christine O'Donnell instead of the pro-choice Mike Castle in the GOP Senate primary in Delaware. Delaware isn't exactly known for its large social conservative vote share, so it remains to be seen whether this changes anything.

• MT-Sen: There have been odd rumors that Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who'll be looking for something to do starting in 2012, was considering a primary challenge to Max Baucus in 2014, motivated at least in part over their different approaches to health care reform. Schweitzer ruled out running for the Senate, though (also ruling out a possible 2012 seat-swap with Jon Tester, which also had been rumored). The possibility of what he'd do if the septuagenarian Baucus retired in 2014, though, didn't seem to get broached.

• NH-Sen: One more addition to the Mama Grizzly corral, and it's a big name who's, well, a woman, but has some competition from her right: Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire. Interesting that Sarah Palin refudiated the more teabaggish challengers (Ovide Lamontagne and Jim Bender).

• CO-Gov: Scott McInnis is not dropping out and is still in it to lose it, he vows, pressure and polling notwithstanding. He will, however, be repaying that $300K to the foundation that employed him to write and not plagiarize his research papers for them. However, it seems some of his underlings are clearly seeing the handwriting on the wall. Three key staffers (his policy director, political director, and regional director) all announced they were leaving the campaign.

• MI-Gov: A Detroit News/WDIV poll (conducted by the Glengariff Group) finds, like everybody else, a very close race in the Republican primary. They have Mike Cox and Peter Hoekstra both at 26, with Rick Snyder at 20, Mike Bouchard at 12, and Tom George at 2. They see a possible route for Snyder to win over undecideds, based on his low unfavorables (he's at 36/8). Mike Bouchard also has a couple new endorsements to his name, although they're from the spouses of two once-important politicians: the wives of ex-Gov. John Engler and ex-Sen. Spencer Abraham. The spouse endorsement, of course, is the time-honored method of boosting your behind-the-scenes friend while still not getting your hands dirty wasting political capital on a sure loss (see the Deval Patrick spousal endorsement of Mike Capuano in the MA-Sen primary).

• NE-Gov: After much speculation that the Dems were simply going to leave their ballot line blank and let Dave Heineman run unopposed to another gubernatorial term, they've found a willing victim candidate to fill the place left by Mark Lakers (who dropped out post-primary but pre-convention). It's Mike Meister, a trial attorney who lost the 2002 Attorney General's race.

• OH-Gov: John Kasich's new ad is weak. I know, I know, I'm a partisan, but if this were a Democrat running this ad, I'd be pounding my head on the desk. His first TV spot starts out with him on the defensive, pointing out that he didn't run Lehman Brothers, just profited handsomely off it.

• OR-Gov: Chris Dudley ruffled some feathers over the weekend by ducking the decades-long traditional debate that opens the campaign season in this civic-minded state, held by the Oregon Newspaper Publishers Association. Dudley said that he'd already had plans for a family vacation then, and Democrats predictably said that this was part of a bigger pattern of ducking issues. (Note: don't piss off the people who buy ink by the bucket. Newspaper e-boards across the state, even the conservative ones, have been scornful.) Then he got really busted: his family vacation just happened to be combined with a visit with the RGA, and its many donors, at an event in Aspen, Colorado. Oregonians aren't likely to begrudge him for a little downtime, but lying about what he's doing... not so much.

• WI-Gov: This seems a little too convenient. GOP Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker's staff just gave a no-bid contract for emergency structural engineering inspections to Graef-USA... a contractor that just happens to be a major Walker campaign contributor.

• MI-13: There are two new polls that look at the Democratic primary in the 13th, and both give a small lead to Hansen Clarke, over Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick. Clarke leads 38-30 in the Detroit News/WDIV poll, and Clarke leads 44-31 in an EPIC-MRA poll released last week. That's on top of a third poll from last week that we already mentioned that also had a Clarke lead, so I'm sensing a pattern here. There's a handful of other candidates, but they're only polling in low single digits... it seems like having only one credible challenger (Clarke, a termed-out state Senator) to Kilpatrick, instead of two like in 2008, is the key to winning the race.

• Legislatures: There are two different stories out today looking at the lay of the land in two legislative chambers that seem among the likeliest to flip to Republican control this year: the Iowa State House, and the Pennsylvania State House, with mentions of some of the most competitive seats in each case.

• NRCC: With the House GOP pretty much assured of gaining a significant number of seats this year, it's been a while since we've done one of these. But could it be time for another... Pete Sessions Deathwatch®? Texas GOPer Tom Pauken, a Rick Perry ally who was state party chair in the 1990s, has been talking Sessions down, saying he's "not up to the job" and he should be replaced by "a smart conservative who knows what needs to be done." That news comes on a day when NRCC staff are busy doing damage control, mopping up behind Sessions after his comments that "we need to go back to the exact same agenda" of the Bush years.

• Rasmussen:
• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 34%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 43 53%
• AK-Gov: Hollis French (D) 29%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 57%
• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 36%, Ralph Samuels (R) 48%
• AK-Gov: Hollis French (D) 30%, Ralph Samuels (R) 49%
• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 38%, Bill Walker (R) 46%
• AK-Gov: Hollis French (D) 32%, Bill Walker (R) 50%
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 38%, Pat Toomey (R) 45%
• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 44%, Scott Walker (R) 48%
• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Mark Neumann (R) 43%

Also a must read today: a new piece from Nate Silver makes the point that "Hey, YouGov's internet-only polling isn't that methodologically bad," but that's by way of comparing it to Rasmussen's sampling techniques, which (no shock to SSP readers) aren't likely to produce a very accurate cross-section of the population.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/1

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jul 01, 2010 at 4:27 PM EDT

• NE-Sen: Ironically, on the same day that he was the deciding vote in the Senate's failure to extend unemployment benefits, Ben Nelson announced that he won't be making an appearance in the unemployment lines himself in 2012. He confirmed that he plans to run for re-election.

• SC-Sen: The profile of Lindsey Graham in the New York Times magazine is well worth a read. While it serves to make me like him a little more, I've gotta wonder if he's even going to bother running (or at least running as a Republican) when he's up again in 2014, considering it's just going to tick off the teabaggers even more. He derides the Tea Partiers, saying they'll be gone in a few years, "chortling" that Ronald Reagan would have a hard time getting elected as a Republican today... and also has a good laugh at the rumors about his sexual orientation, instead of, y'know, punching the interviewer in the nose or something unequivocally manly like that.

• WI-Sen, WI-Gov: PPP rolls out a last batch of numbers from their Wisconsin sample, looking at the Republican primaries in the Senate and gubernatorial races and seeing them as foregone conclusions. On the governor's side, Milwaukee Co. Executive (and legendary 60's crooner) Scott Walker leads ex-Rep. Mark Neumann 58-19, while in the Senate race, Ron Johnson leads Dave Westlake 49-11.

• WV-Sen: OK, so the rumor today is that things are still on for a 2012 special election to replace Robert Byrd, not a 2010 one as suggested yesterday. Gov. Joe Manchin and Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin are sending signals that they won't call for a legislative special session to shift the election date to this year, despite the decision by SoS Natalie Tennant to have it in 2012.

• AL-Gov: Here's one more politican trapped in the semantic quicksand that seems to be developing around the issue of stateside service during Vietnam. Alabama GOP runoff contestant Robert Bentley has drawn some heat for the words "Hospital commander" and "Vietnam War" appearing on-screen in one of his TV ads. Bentley was ranking medical doctor at Pope AFB (in North Carolina) during the Vietnam era, although he didn't serve physically in Vietnam.

• FL-Gov: Now the supposed hero of 9/11 has RINO cooties, too? Rick Scott's camp sent out press releases yesterday attacking opponent Bill McCollum for having supported "pro-abortion, pro-homosexual" Giuliani for President, back in those heady days of, say, 2007, when it was assumed that Giuliani was going to steamroller everyone else in the Florida primary.

• MD-Gov: Republican ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich picked a running mate for his 2010 campaign, and, no, he's not giving Michael Steele his old job back. He picked Mary Kane, who was the SoS under Ehrlich (an appointed position in Maryland). She's from Montgomery County, suggesting he sees the route to 50%+1 through this increasingly-blue suburb.

• OR-Gov (pdf): Republican pollster Magellan is quickly becoming one of the most prolific purveyors of public polls, this time with a look at the gubernatorial race in Oregon. They join the consensus that this is a deadlocked race right now; they find Republican Chris Dudley leading Democrat John Kitzhaber by a paper-thin 41-40 margin. Dudley has 41-27 support among independents. They also offer an interesting breakdown by CD; it's OR-04 that's keeping Dudley in this, giving him a 44-38 edge, while predictably, Kitzhaber dominates in OR-01 and OR-03, Dudley sweeps OR-02, and they fight to a tie in OR-05.

• WY-Gov: OMG! Stop the presses! Veteran character actor and widely trusted commercial pitchman for products for old people (and Wyoming resident) Wilford Brimley has made an endorsement in the GOP gubernatorial primary. He's backing state Auditor Rita Meyer. No word on whether he was won over by her pro-oatmeal stances.

• NJ-07: There's an internal poll out from a Democrat? Not only that, but it's from one who's been totally off the radar, as national Dems seem to have ceded the 7th to freshman GOPer Leonard Lance. While the "informed ballot" numbers are the ones getting promoted (we at SSP think informed ballot questions are good... for us to poop on), there are legitimate toplines in there too, with Lance leading Ed Potosnak by a not-so-imposing 43-30. Lance also has a weak 31/46 re-elect number in the Garin Hart Yang poll.

• NM-02: Construction liens seem to be the common cold of political scandals, but Democratic freshman Harry Teague is in an uphill battle to retain his GOP-leaning seat and probably wouldn't like any bad PR. He personally, and the four oil and gas industry companies he controls, are facing a civil lawsuit over failure to repay loans to purchase equipment.

• Ohio: PPP has some odds and ends left over from their Ohio sample. Two items are on the bad news side of the ledger, although only barely: a generic House ballot test for Ohio (where there are at least five competitive Democratic holds) has Republicans leading Democrats 44-43, and GOP ex-Sen. Mike DeWine is leading appointed Democratic AG Richard Cordray 44-41 in the Attorney General's race. (Screw that; what about SoS race numbers?) The good news is that Sherrod Brown's favorables have rebounded quite a bit since PPP's last poll; he's now at 38/38.

• NRCC: More expectations management from the NRCC? After previous pronouncements that John Boehner was looking to pick up 436 100 seats, now he's sending out a fundraising e-mail that touts a 39-seat pickup as their target.

• RGA: Haley Barbour's rolling around in a trough full of money today: the Republican Governors Association hauled in $19 million in the last fundraising quarter. Also suggesting that GOP fundraising is kicking into higher gear, American Crossroads, the Karl Rove venture that earned a whopping $200 in May, had a much better June: they raised $8.5 million.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/24 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 2:59 PM EDT

• CO-Sen: Americans for Job Security, the mysterious conservative group who poured a lot of money into anti-Bill Halter ads in the Arkansas primary, have surfaced again, and this time they're actually pro- somebody. They're up with ads in Colorado pushing Weld Co. Ken Buck, who's poised to knock off NRSC-touted Jane Norton in the GOP Senate primary.

• FL-Sen: An important-sounding behind-the-scenes Democrat has gotten on board the Charlie Crist campaign. Jeff Lieser, who was the finance director for Alex Sink's successful 2006 CFO campaign, is going to be heading up Crist's "Democratic fundraising efforts."

• MO-Sen: Barack Obama will be doing a fundraiser with Robin Carnahan in Kansas City on July 8. Carnahan hid under a pile of coats when Obama was in Missouri last winter, so it's good to see her changing her tune.

• AL-Gov: Robert Bentley, the state legislator who surprised many by squeaking into the GOP gubernatorial runoff, is picking up a key Tim James backer. Ex-Rep. Sonny Callahan, who represented AL-01 for decades, switched his backing to Bentley yesterday.

• AZ-Gov: The NRA really does seem to love its incumbents, as they've often been accused. The NRA weighed in to the GOP gubernatorial primary, endorsing appointed incumbent Jan Brewer. The only reason that's a surprise is because her biggest rival is self-funding businessman Owen Buz Mills, who also happens to be on the NRA's board of directors and who owns a shooting range.

• IA-Gov: Terry Branstad went with a relative unknown for his running mate, state Sen. Kim Reynolds, rather than one of the parade of recent losers whose names had been floated (Jeff Lamberti, Jim Gibbons, Rod Roberts). Perhaps most significantly, he didn't pick GOP primary runner-up and social conservative extraordinaire Bob Vander Plaats, so now all eyes are on BVP to see whether he follows through with vague threats to run an independent candidacy. (While socially conservative personally, Reynolds isn't known for running with the social conservative crowd.)

• MI-Gov: Virg Bernero is pretty universally considered the "labor" candidate in the Dem primary in the Michigan governor's race, but rival Andy Dillon just got the backing of a big-time union: the statewide Teamsters. Bernero has the backing of the AFL-CIO (which, significantly for Michigan, includes the UAW); while they aren't hitting the airwaves on Bernero's behalf (at least not yet), they are gearing up for a large ground campaign.

• OR-Gov, OR-Sen: It looks like the Oregon gubernatorial race is going to be a close one (like New Mexico, this is shaping up to be a situation where what seemed like an easy race is turning into a battle because the outgoing Dem incumbent's unpopularity is rubbing off on the expected successor). Local pollsters Davis, Hibbitts, and Midghall, on behalf of the Portland Tribune, find the race a dead heat, at a 41-41 tie between John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley (with 6 going to minor party candidates). Tim Hibbitts is the go-to pollster in Oregon; the upside, I suppose, is that it's good for Dems to realize now they're going to need to fight this one hard, rather than realizing it in October after months of complacency. While the Gov. numbers here are closely in line with Rasmussen, the Senate numbers certainly aren't: they find Ron Wyden leading Jim Huffman by a much more comfortable margin of 50-32.

• TX-Gov: Bill White got a big endorsement from Bill Clinton (although there's no word yet if Clinton will stump in Texas on White's behalf, which would be huge). Former Houston mayor White was also a Dept. of Energy official in the Clinton administration.

• LA-02: You might recall some sketchily-sourced information from a few days ago that a couple Democrats were considering launching independent bids in the 2nd, where a high-profile spoiler may be the only hope for another term for GOP freshman Rep. Joe Cao. Well, it seems like there's some truth to the story, inasmuch as the person most likely to be affected by that, state Rep. Cedric Richmond (the likeliest Dem nominee here), is calling attention to the situation now. He's accusing Republicans of a "South Carolina-style political ploy by convincing black candidates to run as independents."

• MI-07: Although ex-Rep. Tim Walberg has the social conservative cred by the bushelful, he didn't get an endorsement from Catholic Families for America. They instead backed his GOP primary rival, Brian Rooney. The Rooney backing makes sense, though, when you recall that Rooney is an attorney for the Thomas More Law Center, the Michigan-based nonprofit that's a frequent filer of amicus briefs and bills itself as "Christianity's answer to the ACLU." The Center was founded by Domino's Pizza baron Tom Monaghan, whose other attempts to mix ultra-conservative Catholicism and the law have included Ave Maria School of Law.

• WATN?: I had absolutely no idea that retiring Rep. Henry Brown was actually interested in demoting himself instead of leaving the political game altogether, but it turns out that, rather than take up golf or shuffleboard like a normal 74-year-old, he decided to run for the Board of Supervisors in Berkeley County (in Charleston's suburbs). Here's where it gets really pathetic... he didn't even win that race. He got 44% of the vote on Tuesday in the GOP runoff (although in his sort-of defense, he was running against an incumbent).

• History: Here's a very interesting article from Larry Sabato's henchman Rhodes Cook, on why 2010 won't be 1994. His gradation of "blue," "purple," and "red" districts is a little reductive, but it's a nice look at how Democrats have somewhat less exposure in general this year. And if you're looking for some amusing trivia, Univ. of Minnesota's Smart Politics has a captivating look at which states have the most (South Carolina) and the fewest (Alaska by #, Idaho by %) governors who were born in-state.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/16

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jun 16, 2010 at 3:41 PM EDT

• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall got an endorsement from MoveOn with less than a week to go until the Senate runoff against Cal Cunningham. It's kind of late in the game, but MoveOn money may fund some last-minute ground-pounding.

• NV-Sen: Why do I have the feeling that Sharron Angle is going to get her own bullet every morning filled with the latest crazy revelations about her? I don't even know where to begin: hot on the heels of revelations that she used to be a member of the right-wing Independent American Party in the 1990s (which she left because of political expedience to run for state Assembly) comes today's revelations that in the 1980s she left the Republican Party at the height of the Reagan era to become a... Democrat? (She says she did so to help a conservative Dem with his state Senate campaign.) Well, now she can claim she's tripartisan. Also from yesterday were, of course, revelations that in January of this year she floated the possibility of armed insurrection if Congress "keeps going the way it is."

With the NRSC playing whack-a-mole with daily Angle bombshells, John Cornyn says he'll be rolling her out verrrrrrry slowly... it'll be "a few weeks" before she's ready to take questions from the press. This comes on top of several stories about Cornyn's more centrist colleagues cautiously distancing themselves from Angle, with Scott Brown and Olympia Snowe saying they aren't getting involved, and Dick Lugar taking exception to most of her key action items. At least Jim DeMint is coming to her rescue, paying for some IEs on her behalf out of his PAC money.

• MI-Gov (pdf): Magellan's out with another public poll of a Republican primary, this time in Michigan. They find Peter Hoekstra narrowly in the lead at 26, with Rick Snyder at 20, Mike Cox at 16, Mike Bouchard at 11, and Tom George at 2. Meanwhile, Cox seems to at least be winning the endorsement game; he got two more nods today, both from two of Hoekstra's slightly more moderate House colleagues: Dave Camp and Thad McCotter. (Candice Miller, on the other hand, backed Hoekstra last week.)

• OR-Gov: Here's quick about-face from John DiLorenzo, a Portland attorney who'd fronted himself six figures to launch an independent gubernatorial candidacy. Today he decided not to run after all; he had an interesting explanation, in that he felt that both Dem John Kitzhaber and GOPer Chris Dudley were moderate enough that there really wasn't any room for him to carve out some space in the middle.

• NC-11: GOP nominee Jeff Miller is out with an internal poll from POS conducted several weeks ago that show him in somewhat competitive territory against Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler. The poll gives Shuler a 46-34 edge over Miller. Miller is on the wrong end of 10:1 cash advantage for Shuler, but just got a FreedomWorks endorsement which may help him gain some ground.

• NJ-06: It looks like the GOP primary in the 6th, the last race from Super Duper Tuesday not to be called, is finally over. Diane Gooch, the pre-primary favorite, at least based on her NRCC backing, conceded and said she won't seek a recount. Anna Little finished 84 votes ahead of Gooch, who endorsed Little for the run against long-time Dem Rep. Frank Pallone.

• NY-24: Here's one more big problem for endangered Rep. Mike Arcuri: GOP opponent Richard Hanna got the endorsement of the statewide Independence Party. There's one catch, though; the Cayuga County Independence Party isn't on board, and say they'd prefer to endorse Arcuri (and take great issue with the selection process, or lack thereof). It's unclear for now how the state and county parties will resolve the dispute. Hanna got the 2008 IP line, which probably helped him keep things surprisingly close that year.

• OH-12: GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi was yesterday declared one of only nine GOPers who need continued financial support, largely because he's facing a top-tier challenge from Franklin Co. Commissioner Paula Brooks. Brooks got a big fundraising boost today with an endorsement from EMILY's List, which should help send some money in the direction of one of the few places where Dems are playing offense.

• TN-04: One more internal poll to report on, although it's incredibly stale (from late March... however it was just brought to our attention, thanks to a tipster in the comments). A poll by Republican pollster OnMessage finds Rep. Lincoln Davis -- a Dem in a terrible district but facing small-fry opposition -- leads his two possible opponents, Scott DesJarlais and Jack Bailey, by identical 44-33 margins.

• UT-02: It sounds like the GOP is still maintaining hopes of monkeying around with the Dem primary in the 2nd, as there are subtle rumblings of efforts to get teabaggers to cross over and vote for very liberal (and probably unelectable in the general) Claudia Wright instead of Rep. Jim Matheson in the Dem primary. Somehow that doesn't seem likely, though, considering that those same voters would probably like to have a say in the hard-fought and likely close Republican Senate primary between Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater on the same day (June 22).

• WI-08: The crowd in the GOP field in the 8th is a little smaller; retired physician Marc Trager dropped out of the race, citing health reasons. He gave his backing to state Rep. Roger Roth, who still faces ex-state Rep. Terri McCormick, contractor Reid Ribble, and county supervisors Marc Savard and Andy Williams.

• VA-St. House: The GOP held seats in the state House of Delegates in two special elections last night, meaning they still control that chamber 59-39 (with 2 GOP-leaning indies). Both were in fairly red territory, but the Dems had felt they had a potentially strong candidate in HD-15 in Harrisonburg mayor Kai Degner. Degner lost to Tony Wilt, 66-34. In Chesterfield County in Richmond's suburbs, Roxanne Robinson beat William Brown with 72%.

Rank of senate and gubernatorial races by last no-Rasmussen polls average (updated)

by: abgin

Sat Jun 12, 2010 at 6:48 AM EDT

(Begining from the number of democratic senate seats and the number of democratic governors what need not run for reelection this year, the first number mean the number of democratic senate seats and governors what dems would have winning until every race of the list.)

(When I tell not the number of polls is because they are four or more)

(I bold emphasize the race with a negative poll what include an outsider key value what make down the average).

SSP Daily Digest: 6/11

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jun 11, 2010 at 3:58 PM EDT

• LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon has, well, a crisitunity on his hands with the oil spill in the Gulf. It gives him the chance to go on the offensive against David Vitter (who's been trying to limit BP's liabilities, and who's also taken to Twitter to tout Louisiana seafood (now pre-blackened) as safe). But he has the tricky task of keep his district's oil-and-gas dependency in mind; he's aggressively calling Vitter a "liar" now... but only because Vitter has been saying that Melancon supports the Obama administration offshore drilling moratorium.

• NC-Sen: Bob Menendez continues to play favorites in the NC-Sen runoff, although it wasn't with a large sum of money: Menendez's PAC (not the DSCC) gave $5,000 to Cal Cunningham last week, as well as the same amount to Blanche Lincoln.

• SC-Sen: The slow-motion trainwreck of Alvin Greene's media rollout continues apace in South Carolina, with last night's go-nowhere interview with Keith Olbermann taking the cake. (Gawker concludes he may actually be, instead of a plant, just "some random dude." Glad to see our phrasing's catching on.) Jim DeMint is, for his part, denying that he put Greene up to this, while other Republicans are helpfully suggesting that Democrats may have put Greene up to it instead, in order to give Vic Rawl a visibility boost (because unopposed candidates don't appear on the ballot). The Rawl campaign has had elections experts look over the voting patterns to try to figure out what happened, and they've already raised one odd red flag: the strange shift from the early absentee votes (where Rawl dominated) to votes cast on Election Day (which Greene won).

• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett, after hinting at it several weeks ago, went ahead and endorsed Tim Bridgewater today. Bridgewater is one of the two quasi-insurgents who finished ahead of Bennett at the state GOP convention, and will be competing in the primary against Mike Lee.

• CA-Gov: I think Godwin's Law might not yet have been enacted when Jerry Brown was Governor the first time, but he might want to familiarize himself with it, after he was caught referring (apparently in jest) to Goebbels in reference to Meg Whitman's saturation advertising. Speaking of which, Whitman just launched her first TV ad post-primary, in which (big surprise) she hates on taxes.

• FL-Gov: Looking for something that'll stick against moneybags Rick Scott, Bill McCollum is now trying to attack him on his pro-life credentials, saying that Columbia/HCA hospitals performed abortions while Scott was CEO.

• OR-Gov, OR-Sen: SurveyUSA is out with a poll in Oregon that has a whiff of outlier to it (as any poll that's about six points to the right of Rasmussen tends to): they find Republican candidate Chris Dudley leading Democratic ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber 47-40. Part of the problem for Dems might be that the poll has third-party Progressive candidate Jerry Wilson racking up 6%, which is assumedly coming out of Kitzhaber's column. But the crosstabs have Dudley winning 44-43 in the Portland area, which, given that area's sheer blueness, seems very odd (as counterpoint, Gordon Smith won the Portland area (Multnomah, Clackamas, and Washington Counties) 50-46 in 2002 en route to a 56-40 victory statewide, the Republicans' high-water mark for about the last 25 or so years). They also have Ron Wyden leading Jim Huffman 51-38 in the Senate race (with 4 for a Libertarian and 2 for a Green), which also seems strange.

• SC-Gov: Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who crashed and burned his car/plane in 4th place in the GOP gubernatorial primary, threw his support to 2nd place finisher Gresham Barrett for the runoff. He said Barrett was the only one he "could trust."

• TX-Gov: The Green Party has agreed that it temporarily won't put forth any candidates until there's been a hearing in the lawsuit filed by the state Democrats. The lawsuit concerns whether the Greens unlawfully accepted a corporation's help in obtaining the signatures it needed to (surprisingly) qualify for a ballot line in Texas.

• AL-02: The Tea Party Express weighed in with an endorsement in the Republican runoff in the 2nd, and they aren't supporting the NRCC-backed establishment candidate, Montgomery city councilor Martha Roby. Instead, they're backing billiards entrepreneur Rick Barber. Their beef with Roby seems to be that she backed a budget pushed by then-Montgomery mayor, now-Rep. Bobby Bright.

• KS-02: You may remember Sean Tevis, who became a netroots fave based on his clever cartoon depictions of his campaign and raised a surprising amount of money that almost let him knock off an incumbent in a red legislative district. Well, he's moving up a level this year; he's decided to run in the 2nd, against Lynn Jenkins (or Dennis Pyle, if he successfully teabags Jenkins). He still faces two other Dems, Cheryl Hudspeth and Thomas Koch, in the primary.

• NC-08: The SEIU looks like it's going through with its strange plan to launch a third-party bid against Larry Kissell in the 8th; they submitted 34K signatures to qualify Wendell Fant for the ballot, much more than the necessary 17K. (The SEIU had previously tried to get a whole third party a ballot line, but that signature drive came up short.) Perhaps even stranger, Fant hasn't agreed to run, at least not yet; he didn't show up at the ballot-submitting press conference. Fant, it turns out, is an ex-Kissell aide who may have an axe to grind after getting dismissed for using a work computer to work on his own VA case.

• NJ-06: Diane Gooch, the self-funder who was expected to easily win the GOP nomination in the bluish 6th to go against Rep. Frank Pallone, is instead finding herself having to request a recount. Anna Little has declared victory, based on the 78-vote margin, after spending $22K to Gooch's $430K.

• NV-03: Americans for Prosperity has Dina Titus in its sights; they're taking out a $100K ad buy on network and cable (thanks, LVRJ, for actually reporting the details!), still harping on Titus for her vote in favor of health care reform.

• NY-13: Because the Republican/Conservative field in the 13th had some wiggle room to get even more messed-up, now another guy is trying to get in on the action. It's Lou Wein, who's going to try to petition his way onto the ballot against Michael Grimm and Michael Allegretti, each of whom have their own clique of powerful backers. Wein is more of a loose cannon -- he's best-known for winning 4% statewide in a 1990 gubernatorial bid on the Right-to-Life line, as well as an unsuccessful 1977 mayoral bid --  but if he can pick up the teabagger banner, he might make some waves here.

• VA-05: Jim McKelvey's up to something weird here; we just don't know what yet. He says he's going to make up his mind this weekend whether or not to endorse Rob Hurt, to whom he finished 2nd in the GOP primary. His latest action is a head-scratcher: he's starting his own PAC, the Take Our Country Back PAC, in order to "seek out, support, educate, train and elect conservative candidates on the local and state level in the fifth district and throughout Virginia."

• Arizona: Here's an interesting piece of data that should hearten Terry Goddard and Rodney Glassman: there's been a surge in Latinos registering as Democrats since the passage of Arizona's new immigration law. This shouldn't be a surprise, as it closely mirrors what happened in the wake of California's Prop 187 in the 1990s. The surge is also demographics-driven, given the fast Latino growth in Arizona, and in fact nationwide: the Census Bureau reports that, for the 2009 estimate, minorities will make up 35% of the nation, way up from 21% of the nation in the 2000 census. While much of that comes from increases in Latino births, a lot of it also has to do with more Americans self-identifying as multiracial.

• Governors: Josh Goodman does some number crunching and guesses that, with all the open seats and expected turnover this year, we're on track to have 28 new Governors. That would be an all-time record for gubernatorial turnover (the previous record, 27, goes back to 1920).

• When Animals Attack: Best wishes for a quick recovery to Rep. Anthony Weiner, whose photo op went awry yesterday, ending with him getting stabbed in the hand by the horn of a large mohair goat. Apparently the most dangerous place to be is not between Weiner and a camera... so long as you're a goat.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/9

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 5:20 PM EDT

• CT-Sen: Campaigns don't usually release internal polls showing them down by 13 points, but when all the public pollsters are showing you down by more than 20 after your blockbuster move failed and it's a last ditch effort to get contributors to not write you off, I suppose it makes sense. A Moore Information poll finds Linda McMahon trailing Richard Blumethal "only" 51-38.

• IL-Sen: Glad to see that the mainstream environmental groups are starting to see the big picture of how Washington works instead of reflexively endorsing moderate Republicans who occasionally pantomime throwing them a bone (see also Reichert, Dave). The Sierra Club and League of Conservation Voters, who've backed Mark Kirk in the past in his House races, will be going with Alexi Giannoulias instead this year.

• NH-Sen: This seemed more like a cry for attention than a well-thought-out campaign pre-announcement when it happened last week. So it's not surprising to hear that whistleblower/former state Securities chief Mark Connolly, after floating his name last week, has decided against running against Paul Hodes in the Dem Senate primary. (The same link also has a list of filings for New Hampshire's state Senate... although Blue Hampshire has that data in helpful table form. Most notable: a troubling Dem-held open seat in a R+4 district.)

• SC-Sen: That didn't take long at all, for the Democrats' baffling new Senatorial nominee, Alvin Greene, to slide into Scott Lee Cohen territory. With revelations this morning that he's facing felony obscenity charges, the state party is calling on Greene to drop out of the race. Mother Jones has some more detail on Greene that really plumbs the depths of his sheer unpreparedness for what he's gotten himself into. I have no idea whether he's a GOP plant (who got fronted the $10K filing fee to be a speed bump for Vic Rawl and wound up winning instead) or just a naif who accidentally wandered into the corridors of power, "Being There"-style, but either way, it makes for a great story.

• AL-Gov: It's official; Robert Bentley finished in 2nd place in the GOP gubernatorial primary, earning him a spot in the primary, and, as expected, Tim James will file for a recount. AG Troy King just issued an AG opinion clarifying the whole issue of whether an automatic recount applies here: no, it doesn't apply to primaries, so James is responsible for the cost of the recount himself. James still plans to do it, though, despite the cost of at least $300K.

• MI-Gov: Republican AG Mike Cox got endorsements from two key GOP power brokers: from the state Chamber of Commerce, and also from Dick and Betsy DeVos. I was a little surprised that the Grand Rapids-based Amway cult leaders didn't go with their in-house western Michigan U.S. Rep., Pete Hoekstra, but Hoekstra claims not to be surprised, probably suggestive of some interpersonal tension with the DeVos family.

• MN-Gov: Here's one more place the SEIU won't get involved: the DFL gubernatorial primary in Minnesota. All three contenders seem to be friendly with labor, so the SEIU didn't seem to want to play favorites in a field that's basically a tossup.

• OR-Gov: Now this is odd... while Oregon has a rather New England-influenced politics, there's no track record of quirky moderate independents running and winning there. Nevertheless, prominent local attorney John DiLorenzo is reporting a $150K loan from himself to his exploratory committee, in apparent preparation for a gubernatorial run.

• SC-Gov: I don't think the RGA could tip its hand any further than it did last night, all but endorsing Nikki Haley, who still has to get past a runoff against Gresham Barrett, saying "the voters made a clear choice" and "the outcome is certain." Barrett, for his part, is brushing that off and continuing to fight on.

• VT-Gov: You may remember Anthony Pollina, who ran as a Progressive and then independent in several gubernatorial races, going as far as to finish 2nd in 2008. Good news for Vermont Dems: Pollina isn't making a third-party bid, or even running for governor at all this year; instead, he's running for a state Senate seat. Also, it sounds like the local Dems and Progressives are getting smarter about not canceling each other out, as they plan to avail themselves more of "fusion voting" this year. (H/t terje; the whole comment is well worth a read.)

• AR-01: With the ink barely dry on Chad Causey's victory in the Dem runoff, the Rick Crawford campaign released an internal poll showing them with a lead over Causey. The poll by POS gives the GOP nominee a 40-34 lead. While the district has a strong Dem tradition, Obama's 54% disapproval in the district gives Crawford an opening.

• IN-03: There's a tally of 15 different Republicans seeking the GOP nod for the special election to replace the recently-resigned Mark Souder; the local GOP will meet on Saturday to choose somebody. The most prominent name is state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, who recently lost the IN-Sen primary, but the list also includes IN-03 primary loser Bob Thomas, two state Reps., Randy Borror and Wes Culver, and even a local TV anchor, Ryan Elijah.

• IN-09: Biden alert! The fundraiser-in-chief has added Baron Hill to his list of beneficiaries, and will be appearing on his behalf in Jeffersonville on June 28.

• PA-12: For his rematch against now-Rep. Mark Critz, Tim Burns is going to try a different campaign manager. Having lost by 9 in the special after seeming to lose the ground war, he parted ways with former chief Tadd Rupp.

• NRSC: John Cornyn admits that the NRSC's wide playing field this November isn't all good news, because their limited resources (currently $17.1 million) will be stretched thin. Somewhere Dino Rossi is thinking "Now he tells me..."

• Polltopia: Maybe the biggest story that people are following today is the quick decision, in the wake of the AR-Sen runoff polls (as well as MA-Sen, PA-12, and the AL-Gov D primary...), by Daily Kos to part ways with hired pollster Research 2000. However, Markos says the decision was more based on 538's aggregate pollster ratings than any one poll. There's no word yet on which pollster will be wearing the orange in the future. Mark Blumenthal has more on the decision, including R2K head Del Ali's response.

Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 19

by: James L.

Sun May 30, 2010 at 3:52 PM EDT

Artur Davis (D): 33 (33)
Bradley Byrne (R): 47 (50)

Artur Davis (D): 39 (35)
Tim James (R): 45 (49)

Artur Davis (D): 40 (44)
Roy Moore (R): 43 (40)

Artur Davis (D): 33
Robert Bentley (R): 46

Ron Sparks (D): 32 (33)
Bradley Byrne (R): 45 (43)

Ron Sparks (D): 37 (34)
Tim James (R): 42 (38)

Ron Sparks (D): 40 (40)
Roy Moore (R): 38 (35)

Ron Sparks (D): 31
Robert Bentley (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.5%)

AR-Gov (5/19, likely voters):

Mike Beebe (D-inc): 53
Jim Keet (R): 38
(MoE: ±4.5%)

CA-Gov (5/24, likely voters, 4/19 in parens):

Jerry Brown (D): 45 (44)
Meg Whitman (R): 41 (38)

Jerry Brown (D): 43 (50)
Steve Poizner (R): 42 (32)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Gov (5/20, likely voters, 4/22 in parens):

Roy Barnes (D): 39 (43)
John Oxendine (R): 43 (45)

Roy Barnes (D): 40 (39)
Nathan Deal (R): 47 (46)

Roy Barnes (D): 39 (41)
Karen Handel (R): 42 (42)

Roy Barnes (D): 42 (42)
Eric Johnson (R): 38 (37)

Thurbert Baker (D): 29 (34)
John Oxendine (R): 50 (44)

Thurbert Baker (D): 30 (31)
Nathan Deal (R): 47 (47)

Thurbert Baker (D): 32 (36)
Karen Handel (R): 43 (44)

Thurbert Baker (D): 30 (35)
Eric Johnson (R): 42 (38)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Sen (5/20, likely voters, 4/22 in parens):

Michael Thurmond (D): 30 (35)
Johnny Isakson (R): 57 (51)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

MN-Gov (5/24, likely voters, 3/10 in parens):

Mark Dayton (D): 35 (38)
Tom Emmer (R): 37 (35)
Tom Horner (I): 12 (7)

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D): 36 (34)
Tom Emmer (R): 38 (37)
Tom Horner (I): 11 (10)

Matt Entenza (D): 34 (28)
Tom Emmer (R): 37 (37)
Tom Horner (I): 12 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-Sen (5/18-19, likely voters, 4/20 in parens):

Tracy Potter (D): 23 (24)
John Hoeven (R): 72 (69)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NM-Gov (5/25, likely voters, 3/24 in parens):

Diane Denish (D): 43 (51)
Susana Martinez (R): 42 (32)

Diane Denish (D): 47 (52)
Pete Domenici Jr. (R): 30 (35)

Diane Denish (D): 45 (45)
Allen Weh (R): 39 (35)

Diane Denish (D): 45 (52)
Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 31 (30)

Diane Denish (D): 47 (43)
Doug Turner (R): 31 (34)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

OR-Sen (5/24, likely voters):

Ron Wyden (D-inc): 51
Jim Huffman (R): 38
(MoE: ±4.5%)

OR-Gov (5/24, likely voters, 4/26 in parens):

John Kitzhaber (D): 44 (41)
Chris Dudley (R): 45 (41)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

WA-Sen (5/26, likely voters, 5/4 in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)
Dino Rossi (R): 47 (46)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50 (52)
Don Benton (R): 35 (38)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (51)
Clint Didier (R): 37 (36)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (49)
Paul Akers (R): 32 (35)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

WI-Gov (5/25, likely voters, 4/20 in parens):

Tom Barrett (D): 41 (44)
Scott Walker (R): 48 (46)

Tom Barrett (D): 42 (46)
Mark Neumann (R): 44 (46)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

WI-Sen (5/25, likely voters, 4/20 in parens):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 46
Ron Johnson (R): 44

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 47
Dave Westlake (R): 38
(MoE: ±4.5%)

SSP Daily Digest: 5/24 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Mon May 24, 2010 at 4:00 PM EDT

• IL-Sen: Jesse Jackson Jr. seems to be up to some serious no-good in the Illinois Senate primary, although the reason isn't clear. He's withheld his endorsement from Alexi Giannoulias so far, and now is going so far as to talk up his respect for Mark Kirk (they serve on Appropriations together) and float the idea of endorsing him. Is he using his endorsement as a bargaining chip to get some squeaky-wheel-greasing (like Jackson's pet airport project - recall that he didn't endorse 1998 IL-Gov nominee Glenn Poshard over that very issue), or is he war-gaming his own run against a first-term Kirk in 2016?

• NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B (pdf): Siena is out with a slew of New York data today. They find Kirsten Gillibrand in good position in the Senate race against three second-tier opponents; she beats Bruce Blakeman 51-24, Joe DioGuardi 51-25, and David Malpass 53-22. In the GOP primary, DioGuardi is at 15, Blakeman at 8, and Malpass at 4. I guess they want to be thorough, because they also took a rather in-depth look at the usually neglected NY-Sen-_A_. Charles Schumer beats Nassau Co. Controller George Maragos 65-22, Jay Townsend 63-24, Gary Berntsen 64-23, and Jim Staudenraus 65-21. Political consultant Townsend leads the primary at 10, followed by Maragos at 5, with some dudes Bertnsen and Staudenraus at 3 and 1. They even poll Schumer's primary, wherein he beats Randy Credico 78-11.

• AK-Gov: DRM Market Research (not working for any particular candidate) polled the two primaries in the Alaska gubernatorial race (which aren't until August), finding, as expected, GOP incumbent Sean Parnell and Dem Ethan Berkowitz with big leads. Parnell is at 59, with 9 for former state House speaker Ralph Samuels and 7 for Bill Walker. Berkowitz is at 48, with 17 for state Sen. Hollis French and 8 for Bob Poe. Diane Benson, who ran for the House in 2006 and 2008, is running for Lt. Governor this time, and leads the Dem primary there.

• AL-Gov: Ron Sparks is out with some details from an internal poll with one week left to go before the primary, needing to push back not only against an Artur Davis internal but today's R2K poll. For some reason, there aren't specific toplines, but Sparks is touting a one-point lead over Davis. The poll also sees Davis polling at only 43% among African-Americans.

• NY-Gov (pdf): Siena has gubernatorial numbers, too. Believe it or not, Andrew Cuomo is winning. He beats Rick Lazio 66-24, Steve Levy 65-22, and Carl Paladino 65-22. In the GOP primary, Lazio is at 29, Carl Paladino at 16, and Steve Levy at 14. How bad do you think state party chair Ed Cox is feeling that his hand-picked Killer-App party-swapper isn't even polling ahead of a bestiality-email-forwarding teabagger? Well, Cox's performance here and the Senate races has been so miserable that the latest local conspiracy theory is that Cox is throwing in the towel on the Senate race so that his son, Chris Cox, can have an unimpeded run against Kirsten Gillibrand in 2012. (Of course, the cart is a few miles down the road ahead of the horse; there's no guarantee Cox Jr. can even make it out of the GOP primary in NY-01, let alone past Tim Bishop.)

• OK-Gov: I don't know if Mary Fallin is feeling any heat here, but nevertheless, she put out an internal poll taken for her by Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates. She leads both Dems, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and AG Drew Edmondson by an identical 52-30 margin. (UPDATE: The Fallin campaign writes in to say this wasn't an internal, but CHS acting on its own.)

• OR-Gov: Chris Dudley airballed his first salvo of the general election against John Kitzhaber. Dudley accused Kitzhaber of having tried to put the state in debt by borrowing to balance the state's budget during the 2001 recession. Ooops... Kitzhaber did the exact opposite, as he fought against doing so, against legislators of both parties. (Ted Kulongoski eventually signed off on the idea in 2003, after Kitz was out of office.)

• PA-Gov: Maybe one of his younger, hipper staffers warned him that he was heavy-handedly barking up the wrong tree, as AG and GOP nominee Tom Corbett did a 180, pulling his Twitter subpoena to try and ascertain the identities of several anonymous critics.

• SC-Gov: Well, as is usually the case, the most salacious political news of the day is also the biggest. A South Carolina blogger, Will Folks, who used to be on Nikki Haley's payroll is now claiming that he and Haley had an affair (prior to Folks's marriage, but after Haley's). Folks, believe it or not, is supporting Haley, but apparently wanted to get this out there as other candidates have been pushing oppo research on this to reporters. Haley had had some recent momentum, with a big ad buy on her behalf from the Mark Sanford camp and a corresponding lead in the most recent Rasmussen poll of the primary.

• TX-Gov: This is an internet poll by British pollster YouGov, so, well, have your salt and vinegar shakers handy. Working on behalf of the Texas Tribune and the Univ. of Texas, they find incumbent GOPer Rick Perry with a lead over Dem Bill White 44-35 (and similar-sized leads for the Republicans for all the other statewide offices downballot).

• Polltopia: Here's some more hard evidence that pollsters are increasingly missing the boat by not polling cellphone users. A new Centers for Disease Control survey finds that nearly a quarter of the adult population is simply being missed by many pollsters (especially autodialers like Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, given limitations on auto-dialing cellphones). The CDC also hints at how cellphone-only adults are not just more urban, more poor, less white, younger, and more Internet-savvy, but also less "domestic" and more "bohemian," which Nate Silver thinks indicates a different set of political beliefs, too. Given the statistically significant difference between Pew's generic congressional ballots that include and exclude cellphone users, the cellphone effect seems to be skewing polls away from Dems this cycle -- the real question is, are those cellphone-only users at all likely to show up in November?

• Demographics: Josh Goodman has another interesting piece in his redistricting preview series of population changes in big states, this time in Illinois. He finds the greatest population growth in the suburban collar counties of Illinois, also the most politically competitive part of the state these days. While these all trended sharply in the Democratic direction in 2008, the question is whether that trend hold without the Obama favorite-son effect this year.

A Very Super Tuesday: 5/18 Primary Results Round-Up

by: James L.

Wed May 19, 2010 at 12:56 PM EDT

Arkansas:

• AR-Sen: The big story out of Arkansas is Bill Halter's strong finish in the Democratic Senate primary against Blanche Lincoln. Lincoln ultimately ended the night with a 45-43 result, which was good enough to send this race to a runoff on June 8. Everyone is aflutter that Paulist weirdo D.C. Morrison managed to scoop up 13% of the vote, a higher mark than the polls expected. While it might be tempting to speculate that Morrison's votes will flock to the more right-wing choice in the runoff (Lincoln), I don't really think that's how it works. I'd expect Halter to pick up a share of these voters based purely on anti-incumbent spite, while others may simply crawl back into the woodwork, dissatisfied with both options. And for what it's worth, Morrison says that he won't be supporting either Dem in the runoff (or the general), and guesses that his supporters will split evenly between the two of them.

  On the Republican side, GOP Rep. John Boozman cleared the primary with an easy 53% of the vote over a very fractured Republican field. While Boozman gets the luxury of extra time to refill his war chest, it's not the biggest loss in the world for Dems -- we're only talking about three weeks worth of time here.



• AR-01: Ex-state Sen. Tim Wooldridge is headed to a runoff against Marion Berry's former Chief of Staff Chad Causey for the Democratic nomination here. Wooldridge, a fairly conservative fellow whom Bill Halter beat in a runoff for the Democratic Lt. Governor nod in 2006, came in first with 39% of the vote. Causey, who was endorsed by Berry and some labor groups, scored 27%. The winner of the runoff will face Republican radio broadcaster Rick Crawford, who easily beat Princella Smith, a former aide to future ex-Rep. Joe Cao, by a 73-27 margin.


• AR-02: Republicans nominated ex-US Attorney and Rove acolyte Tim Griffin over teabagging restaurateur Scott Wallace by a 62-38 margin, while Democrats sent state Sen. Joyce Elliott, a liberal African-American, to a runoff against state House Speaker Robbie Wills. Elliott won 40% of the vote to 28% for Wills. Departing Dem Rep. Vic Snyder's former Chief of Staff, David Boling, came in third with 19%.


• AR-03: In a district that is essentially the home base of Republican muscle in Arkansas, it's too bad ex-state Sen. Gunner DeLay didn't manage to force himself into the runoff, if only to give us more opportunities to namedrop him. Instead, Republicans chose Rogers Mayor Steve Womack (31%) and state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe (13%) to advance to the runoff out of a very crowded field.

Kentucky:

• KY-Sen: In a night of amazing finishes, this one caused a lot of bubbly to be spilled in the SSP comments section. While Rand Paul sleepwalked to a 59-35 win over Trey Grayson, Attorney General Jack Conway executed a remarkable surge in the remaining weeks of the campaign, escaping a double-digit deficit to beat Dan Mongiardo by 44-43 for the Democratic nomination. Perhaps surprisingly, though, Mongiardo is holding out for a recanvass of the vote before he concedes. A recount will unlikely do much good for Dr. Dan, especially when you consider that there are still 13 precincts left to count in Conway-loving Jefferson County.

  Also, if this is any indication of Rand Paul's campaign skills -- hosting his victory party at an exclusive country club and then defending the choice on Good Morning America as non-elitist... because Tiger Woods brought golf to "the city youth" -- this should be a pretty fun campaign.



• KY-03: Here's another mild surprise. Despite a financial disadvantage, Air Force vet Todd Lally crushed Pizza Hut franchise baron and presumed front-runner Jeff Reetz by a 52-17 margin for the Republican nod to take on two-term Dem Rep. John Yarmuth. Reetz, in fact, did so poorly that he finished in third -- right behind real estate investor Larry Hausman, who took 25% of the vote.


• KY-06: We initially expected retired coal executive Mike Templeman to give attorney Andy Barr a run for his money for the GOP nod to take on Democratic fixture Ben Chandler, but this race was nothing short of a blow-out. Barr dispatched Templeman by a 64-10 spread.

Oregon:

• In Oregon, surprises were few and far between. Polling had given ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber a big edge over ex-SoS Bill Bradbury going into the Democratic primary, and that was borne out by Kitzhaber's 66-30 win. Although Bradbury was rhetorically running to Kitzhaber's left, progressives don't need to be disappointed by the result; Kitzhaber's track record is as a health care innovator, and he's clearly eager to push forward on that now that he has a reliably Democratic legislature and the state-level flexibility afforded by the new HCR law. Kitzhaber faces off against Republican victor Chris Dudley, who won with 40% of the vote in a crowded GOP field (which is still less than his 46% career free throw average in the NBA). Dudley fought off a late surge from Allen Alley, who finished at 32%, after trying to make inroads with the conservative wing once Dudley staked out the same moderate turf where Alley had hoped to compete.

  In the Senate race, Dem incumbent Ron Wyden picked up 90% of the vote; he faces a not-very-competitive race against Republican law professor Jim Huffman, the best known out of seven nobodies, who prevailed with 42%. The NRCC got its desired candidates in the two House districts where it's hoping to compete this year. State Rep. Scott Bruun had a solid performance in OR-05, winning with 62%, while Rob Cornilles was a bit more underwhelming, winning with 41% against a teabagger-clogged field in OR-01. (Crisitunity)

Pennsylvania:

• PA-Sen: You gotta hand it to Joey Sestak. After months of stagnating in the polls and storing his powder safely in airtight Ziploc containers, he used some well-timed late hits to topple Arlen Specter by 54-46 in the Democratic primary. Given that Sestak has actually been performing more competitively than Specter against Republican Pat Toomey (who won his primary over Peg Lutsik by 63 points), this is probably good news over all for team blue.


• PA-Gov: In the end, it wasn't close. Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato beat state Auditor Jack Wagner by 45-24 for the Democratic gubernatorial nod. Two Philly-area candidates, state Senator (and school voucher advocate) Anthony Williams and ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel combined for 31% of the vote. Onorato faces a bigger challenge now in defeating Republican AG Tom Corbett. Corbett beat his no-name opposition with 69% of the vote.


• PA-03: Auto dealer and ex-city councilman Mike Kelly narrowly beat well-funded retired businessman Paul Huber by 28-26. Kelly will be the Republican nominee against frosh Dem Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper this fall.


• PA-04: Politics ain't beanbag, and Bush-era US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan found that out the hard way last night. Expected to easily clinch the Republican nomination against Democrat Jason Altmire by beltway progs when she entered the race, her ineptitude on the campaign trail resulted in attorney Keith Rothfus pasting her by 33%. Better luck next time, Mary Beth!


• PA-06: In a night that gave us some pretty good news all around, this one is particularly special for SSP. Democratic physician Manan Trivedi upset rich guy Doug Pike, who had donated over $1 million of his own money to his campaign effort, by a 51-49 spread. It looks like Pike still hasn't conceded, but he'll have to face the truth sooner rather than later. And here's a nickel's worth of free advice that I'll give to anyone who's interested in running for Congress in the future: You Don't Mess With The Project.


• PA-10: Another ex-Bush era US Attorney, Tom Marino, was touted as a strong recruit who'd have little difficulty winning his party's nomination against Democrat Chris Carney. Things got a little dicey last night, but Marino did end up succeeding where Mary Beth Buchanan failed. Marino won the nod with a 41% plurality over chiropractor David Madeira and Snyder Co. Commissioner Malcolm Derk.


• PA-11: If there's one race where things didn't really work out for Democrats, it's this one. Crusty incumbent Rep. Paul Kanjorski beat a divided Democratic primary field with only 49% of the vote -- one of the weakest performances we've seen by an incumbent House member this cycle. That probably doesn't bode well for the general election, where Kanjorski will face off with Lou Barletta for the third time.


• PA-12: Wow. After all the Republican swagger, did anyone honestly expect Democrat Mark Critz to beat Republican Tim Burns by 53-45 in the special election to replace John Murtha? Certainly Republicans appeared stunned, because I don't think they would have tried to spin yarns like this one if they weren't reeling from the result:

  "Republican Tim Burns ran an excellent campaign in one of the bluest of congressional districts," Mr. Steele said in a statement Tuesday night. "Despite the fact that Pennsylvania's 12th District has been a Democratic stronghold for more than 30 years and Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1, Republican Tim Burns pushed his Democratic opponent to the wire."

  "One of the bluest" CDs? Shah! Right! Obviously Mikey was not reading from the same hymnbook as ex-Rep. Tom Davis:

  Tom Davis, a former Republican House member and top party campaign strategist, saw the win by Democrat Mark Critz, a former aide to Mr. Murtha, over Republican Tim Burns as a serious blow to the Republican claim to be within reach of the 40 seats needed to recapture the House.

  "If you can't win a seat that is trending Republican in a year like this, then where is the wave?" asked Mr. Davis, who said Republicans will need to examine what went wrong. "It would be a huge upset not to win this seat."

  Or Charlie Cook, for that matter, from late April:

  Republicans have no excuse to lose this race. The fundamentals of this district, including voters' attitudes towards Obama and Pelosi, are awful for Democrats. And Democratic party registration advantages here are just as obsolete as GOP's advantages in Upstate New York were last year. Timing is no excuse for Republicans either. This special election, not the competitive statewide Democratic primaries held the same day, will be driving turnout on May 18th.

  Meanwhile, Burns managed to win his primary over direct mail scammer Bill Russell by 57-43, which means he gets the pleasure of facing Critz again in November. It's pretty rare for the loser of a special election to win the rematch in the next general election. The last example of such a casualty, that I can come up with, was half-term Dem Rep. Peter Barca, who won a special election against Republican Mark Neumann in 1993. Neumann came back to beat Barca in '94. Otherwise, this type of situation is pretty rare.



• PA-17: Democrat Tim Holden seemed to aggravate the base of his party with his vote against HCR, resulting in only a 65% win last night over his no-money primary challenger, Sheila Dow-Ford. On the Republican side, state Sen. Dave Argall only managed to beat veteran Frank Ryan by 1.4%.


• PA-19: Despite speculation that semi-sane GOP Rep. Todd Platts was endangering himself by openly seeking an appointment from Barack Obama to lead the Government Accountability Office, Platts dispatched teabagging challenger Mike Smeltzer by a 70-30 margin.