• NH-Sen: Oh, darn. Ex-Sen. Bob Smith isn't planning to run in the GOP primary for Judd Gregg's open senate seat. He said he prefers to remain a Florida resident.
• OH-Sen: Add a fourth candidate (and, with Tyrone Yates, a second African-American with a less-than-statewide profile) to the mix in the Ohio senate primary: Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones. Last week he told Ohio Daily Blog that he'd be forming an exploratory committee this week. (No telling if that actually happened.)
• OH-02: You may remember David Krikorian, an independent who racked up double-digits in last year's Schmidt/Wulsin faceoff. He's announced that he's going to seek the Democratic nomination for a rerun, as a loud 'n' proud Blue Dog.
• IL-05: It's the last weekend of campaigning before the Mar. 3 primary for the special election to fill Rahm Emanuel's seat. With 12 candidates and projected low turnout, basically anything can happen. While Emanuel hasn't endorsed, Politico does observe that there's a Sara Feigenholtz sign in his yard in Chicago.
• DCCC: Chris Van Hollen announced his 2009-10 chair for candidate recruitment: Rep. Steve Israel (of NY-02). He also announced that Robby Mook, most recently Jeanne Shaheen's campaign manager, will take over as the DCCC's political director.
• FEC: This ought to make James's job a lot easier: Russ Feingold has introduced legislation, widely expected to pass, requiring Senate candidates to electronically file their campaign finance reports with the FEC, the way House candidates already do. Currently, Senate filings are paper-only.
• KY-St Sen.: Here's a bit of good news that's a few weeks old that eluded us until now: a Democratic candidate, Mike Reynolds, won the Feb. 11 special election to fill the state senate seat vacated by Republican Brett Guthrie (elected in KY-02 in November). The 32nd, based in Bowling Green, is in a deep red area at the federal level, but apparently still maintains a downballot Dem tradition. The GOP still controls the state senate, 21-16-1.
• NYC: SSP doesn't usually delve into county-level governance, but this involves one of the legal community's most legendary members: Bob Morgenthau, the District Attorney of New York County (aka Manhattan), has decided not to go for a 10th term. Currently 89 years old, he's been in office for 35 years.
• Retread Watch: Yeah, there's some precedent for this. But isn't it a little sad that twice-defeated House loser Jeb Bradley is considering a run for New Hampshire state Senate?
We've seen a flurry of polls from this race in recent days. A week ago, SurveyUSA found Mean Jean ahead by 48-40, followed by a Momentum Analysis internal for Wulsin showing a 37-36 Schmidt lead, and topped off with a Schmidt internal from the Tarrance Group giving the incumbent a 52-36 lead.
This poll basically splits the difference between the two campaigns' numbers. While it also finds that Schmidt continues to post weak favorables (41-43), Wulsin's aren't much better (41-42). But in an anti-incumbent wave election, it's possible for a gap like this to close -- after all, Schmidt was leading by five points in the last poll before the 2006 elections, and Wulsin ended up losing by only two percent. That task becomes harder with GOP coattails in a conservative R+13 district like this one, but here's a sign of hope: McCain is only leading Obama here by 52-41. That's a far cry from the 64-36 drubbing that Bush gave to John Kerry here in 2004.
Momentum Analysis for Vic Wulsin (9/29-30, likely voters, June in parens):
Vic Wulsin (D): 36 (33)
Jean Schmidt (R-inc): 37 (41)
David Krikorian (I): 11 (6)
Undecided: 16 (19)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Looks like the GOP is hitting an economic road-bump everywhere. This is still gonna be a tough race, but damn, Schmidt always makes things interesting.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
UPDATE: Schmidt has released her own poll by the Tarrance Group from early September showing her up on Wulsin by a 52-36 margin, with another 6% going to Krikorian.
Roll Call has commissioned SurveyUSA to conduct polls in Ohio's top four congressional races (I wish they would've polled OH-07 also, but I'll take what I can get), and they've just released the results. Let's take a look (9/19-21, likely voters):
John Boccieri (D): 49
Kirk Schuring (R): 41
(MoE: ±4%)
Decent looking numbers for Mary Jo Kilroy and especially John Boccieri. It looks like the DCCC's unanswered $850,000 spent in these two districts is making an impact.
Also looking good is Steve Driehaus, who could be poised to capitalize on Barack Obama's organization in this district. The Cincinnati-based 1st CD is 28% African-American, and Driehaus' hopes will rest in part on a strong turnout by these voters: if African-Americans make up only 26% of the vote on election day, Chabot's lead grows to 47-44, but if the black turnout pushes to 30%, the race is tied at 45-45.
Roll Call also polled the Presidential race in three of the four districts (why they left off the extremely swingin' OH-15, I have no idea):
OH-01: Obama 52%, McCain 43% (Kerry 49%, Bush 51%)
OH-02: Obama 39%, McCain 58% (Kerry 36%, Bush 64%)
OH-16: Obama 46%, McCain 48% (Kerry 46%, Bush 54%)
Interesting that we're seeing a sizable Obama improvement in these three CD-based polls, but most of the recent statewide polling shows McCain with a small edge. Vic Wulsin's gonna have a tough time leaping over that red wall, but we can take heart in that Mean Jean is still clearly damaged goods, as she lags behind McCain by a full 10%. A conservative-leaning independent, businessman David Kirkorian, is also in the race and was recently endorsed by the Cincinnati Fraternal Order of Police. He could be a factor in November.
UPDATE: On September 16 EMILY's List announced their endorsement of two more Congressional challengers: Becky Greenwald in IA-04 (D+0) and Sharen Neuhardt in OH-07 (R+6).
Maybe someone out there who knows the inner workings of EMILY's List can explain to me why this group has not put money behind Becky Greenwald, the Democrat challenging loyal Republican foot-soldier Tom Latham in Iowa's fourth Congressional district.
I have been going over the list of Democratic women running for Congress whom EMILY's List is supporting, with a particular focus on the six challengers most recently added to this group in early August. I do not mean to denigrate any of those candidates, and I recognize that every race has its own dynamic.
However, after comparing Greenwald's race to those of other candidates, I remain puzzled that EMILY's list is not more involved in IA-04.
Over at my old stomping grounds, TPM EC, Eric touches base with Republican state Rep. Todd Brinkman, who recently mounted an unsuccessful primary challenge against longtime SSP favorite Jean Schmidt. Brinkman still has a few bones to pick with Mean Jean, and he's not about to go away quietly:
The issue? GOP State Rep. Tom Brinkman, who founded an anti-tax government watchdog group, is charging that Schmidt's House staffers frequently work on her campaign for re-election.
"You can quote me anywhere you like. Jean Schmidt is a lying b----," said Brinkman, who lost his primary challenge to her this year by a 58%-40% margin, in an interview with Election Central. "She would sell her mother to promote herself. She is a despicable person. She will go any length possible to win, to get what she wants."
Keep the hits coming, Todd!
Y'know, sooner or later Jean Schmidt will find herself in the dustbin of political history, and when that day comes, I think I'll miss having her to kick around.
Momentum Analysis (6/24-26, likely voters) for Vic Wulsin:
Vic Wulsin (D): 33
Jean Schmidt (R-inc): 41
David Krikorian (I): 6
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±3.5%)
If any incumbent polling under 50 is in danger, Schmidt barely scraping above 40 is a real showing of vulnerability. But let's pop open the hood and look at some other numbers from the poll: Only 36% of voters say that they will vote to re-elect Schmidt, while 33% say they will vote to replace her, and 15% are willing to consider someone else. Schmidt's favorable/unfavorable rating is a poor 45-45, and her job performance rating is even weaker: 33% give her a positive rating while 53% have a negative view of her job performance.
Schmidt is in the danger zone for sure, but I can't help but wonder if she'll turn into our elusive white whale. Full memo below the fold.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
American Political Polling (5/31-6/2, registered voters):
Vic Wulsin (D): 30
Jean Schmidt (R-inc): 24
David Krikorian (I): 13
Undecided: 33
(MoE: ±3.5%)
The poll also shows that Schmidt has a job approval rating of 23%, and Bush at 40%. But this is one weird poll, and frankly, the numbers seem a little suspect. Was there any attempt made to push leaners?
Here's a "bonus finding" from the poll: Obama leads McCain by 34-33 in Ohio's 2nd CD. Let the record show that this is an R+13 district.
These numbers just seem too hard to believe. Full memo below the fold.
