for a good laugh, I set myself up on the Club for Growth e-mail list. I love to see what Democrats they target and I especially love to see them promote primary challenges to Republicans....especially when they are Republicans that we are targetting...like Mark Kirk.
Recently, the CfG sent out an e-mail complaining about 8 RINO's who voted in favor the "dangerous cap and trade bill" last Friday. They are looking for viable candidates to run primary challenges against these 7 (McHugh is the 8th vote but he's retiring)
Bono Mack, Mary (CA-45)
Castle, Mike (DE-AL)
Kirk, Mark (IL-10)
Lance, Leonard (NJ-07)
LoBiondo, Frank (NJ-02)
Reichert, Dave (WA-08)
Smith, Chris (NJ-04)
I can't help but notice that Democrats ran strong challenges in several of these districts and are primed to do so again. It would certaintly work to our benefit if we gave the CfG a little boost in helping to find some viable primary challengers to these Republican candidates.
Does anybody have any knowledge of potential Republican candidates in these races that we could give some encouragement to get into these races or give the CfG some encouragement to try and get them in themselves??
Until 20 years ago the suburbs around New York City were strongly Republican. Now they are strongly Democratic. In the area I would consider the NYC metro area there are 30 Congressional Districts. These are NY-(01-19), NJ-(04-13), and CT-04. (I know, it's debatable what is and what isn't.) Only 5 of the 30 are represented by Republicans: NY-03, NJ-05, NJ-11, NJ-07, and NJ-04. Amazingly, there are 6 districts in this area that have a PVI of D+30 or better.
All across the country, suburbs are trending Democratic. Older suburbs are now reliably Democratic. However it looks like some of the suburban areas around New York City may have peaked in around 2000. Some of these "traditionally Republican" areas may be trending Republican again.
We had a pretty good night on election night in the Northeast. We cleaned house. We nailed 1 GOP Senator, 6 House of Reps Districts, 1 State Senate and held on to all of the State Senates, State Houses, US House Reps and US Senators we had coming into this cycle.
That the Northeast is rapidly realigning towards team Blue is undeniable!
But the work my friends has merely begun. Forget the bunkum about us being irretrievably on defense in 2010 come below the fold to see who should be in our sights in 2010 as we stay on offense in the Northeast........
The DCCC has released a pair of polls of New Jersey's tight open seat races. Let's take a look.
NJ-03: Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/2-3, likely voters):
John Adler (D): 38
Chris Myers (R): 34
Undecided: 29
(MoE: ±4.9%)
The polls so far haven't been very kind to Adler in this D+3 (but ancestrally Republican) South Jersey district. All of the publicly-released polls of this race have given Myers a lead between two and four points, with a large share of the vote undecided. In my gut, I still think that Adler should pull this one out, but it doesn't look like it'll be a walk in the park by any means.
Linda Stender (D): 40
Leonard Lance (R): 31
Michael Hsing (I): 8
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Hsing is a Republican councilman from Bridgewater running as an Independent, and it seems like his impact on this race won't be negligible. The polls from this race have been a bit more mixed than the 3rd: Monmouth recently gave Lance a 43-39 edge, while Anzalone Liszt found Stender up by 36-33 (with 9% for Hsing) in August.
SSP currently rates both of these races as Tossups.
Linda Stender (D): 39
Leonard Lance (R): 43
Michael Hsing (I): 2
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4.8%)
It's a tight race, which is no surprise in this swing district. The previous poll that we saw from this match-up, by Dem pollster Anzalone Liszt, gave Stender a 36-33 lead, with Republican-turned-Independent Hsing taking a more sizable 9% of the vote. The silver lining for Stender here is the district's general congressional preference, with 37% of registered voters preferring Democratic control of Congress to 29% siding with the GOP. Among undecided voters, that margin is 29-17.
Both candidates are largely undefined, with 55% having no opinion of Lance, and 51% having no opinion of Stender -- though Stender's unfavorables are slightly higher (22%) than Lance's (18%).
The poll also gives Barack Obama a 47-46 lead over McCain in the 7th District. Bush won this CD by a 53-47 margin in 2004.
The DCCC has filed nearly $1.6 million in media buys in support of House Democratic candidates tonight. Here's the damage:
District
Incumbent
Group
Media Buy
IL-10
Kirk
DCCC
$41,066
LA-06
Cazayoux
DCCC
$93,462
NC-08
Hayes
DCCC
$112,423
NH-01
Shea-Porter
DCCC
$31,815
NJ-03
Open
DCCC
$56,680
NJ-07
Open
DCCC
$116,541
NM-01
Open
DCCC
$124,981
NM-02
Open
DCCC
$70,729
NV-03
Porter
DCCC
$142,214
NY-26
Open
DCCC
$59,110
OH-01
Chabot
DCCC
$137,099
OH-15
Open
DCCC
$162,989
OH-16
Open
DCCC
$156,724
PA-03
English
DCCC
$91,665
PA-10
Carney
DCCC
$130,704
WI-08
Kagen
DCCC
$55,336
Total:
$1,583,541
This is on top of $1.4 million in media buys filed in 15 other districts yesterday. Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has spent money on TV ads in LA-06, NJ-03, NM-02, NV-03, and WI-08.
The Northeast (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island & Vermont) has been sharply trending towards the Democratic party for some years now. Increasingly at a State and Federal level Republicans are finding it harder to get elected in the Northeast, be they conservatives or moderates, particularly in statewide races. And this years election seems certain to thin out their ranks even further.
We now have 7/9 Governors, 14/18 Senators and 51/65 House Districts!
Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.
The DCCC is opening up their floodgates to some serious advertising expenditures in support of Democratic House candidates. Tonight, the committee filed $1.75 million in advertising expenditures in 15 districts:
District
Incumbent
Media Buy
AL-02
Open
$32,645
AL-05
Open
$44,925
AZ-01
Open
$82,615
AZ-05
Mitchell
$101,893
CT-04
Shays
$70,800
IL-10
Kirk
$41,066
IL-11
Open
$40,953
NC-08
Hayes
$114,848
NH-01
Shea-Porter
$493,422
NJ-07
Open
$116,541
NM-01
Open
$144,011
OH-01
Chabot
$118,428
OH-15
Open
$111,899
OH-16
Open
$152,748
PA-03
English
$88,552
These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.
The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can't afford to match pace. I wonder if they'll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.
More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP's Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.
Linda Stender (D): 36
Leonard Lance (R): 33
Michael Hsing (I): 9
Tom Abrams (I): 2
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Hsing is a Republican councilman from Bridgewater who is running as an independent, and Abrams, who ran on the "Withdraw Our Troops Now" line in 2006 (might as well have been the "Stay In Iraq Forever" line, but I digress), is again running as an anti-war independent. Without those two pretenders on the ballot, Stender leads Lance by 43-42.
Up the ballot, this district is incredibly tight, with a slight GOP lean: McCain leads Obama by 45-43. It's worth mentioning that Bush carried New Jersey's 7th twice -- by a single point in 2000, and six points four years later. Looks like it could be another close one. I've been told that the DCCC has just gone up on the air in this district with a negative spot against Lance.
I'm still trying to obtain some key info about this poll -- including its margin of error and the date lines, and will update this post accordingly once I get the details. (Update: Got it.)
