AR-Sen: As Reid Wilson says, here's something you don't see every day - at least, not in a Dem primary. Blanche Lincoln is attacking the labor unions who are supporting her opponent, Bill Halter. Lincoln is also doing her best to warm the hearts of the faithful by taking John Boehner's side in the latest kerfuffle over House procedural tactics with regard to healthcare reform.
CO-Sen: Dem Sen. Michael Bennet has his first TV ad up, a $300K buy in Denver and Colorado Springs. Greg Giroux suggests that the timing is deliberate, since Bennet will be looking to blunt any possible momentum Romanoff might have received coming out of last night's precinct caucuses.
FL-Sen: All the cool kids have already done it, which means anyone getting on the Marco Rubio bandwagon at this late date is just a fair-weather fan. Still, GOP Rep. Tom Price is chair of the Republican Study Committee, which is the Borg collective mothership of right-wing crazy, so this gives Rubio the Good Wingnut Seal of Approval™. Resistance is futile.
MA-Sen: That didn't take long - newly-minted GOP Sen. Scott Brown will be hosting his first inside-the-beltway fundraiser, at $1000 a head. Of course, it'll be at the offices of lobbying firm Duane Morris. My advice to Scott Brown is to hold lots and lots of events with lobbyists. Also, become the anti-healthcare frontman for your party. Thanks for helping out with that, Mitch McConnell!
NV-Sen: Memo to reporters: Please include information about the size of ad buys (especially for attack ads) when you're writing them up. There are too many tiny buys made solely for the purpose of spinning the media. We the people need to know if we're being spun, too.
NY-Sen-B: Republican ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi officially offered himself up as a sacrificial lamb entered the race to take on Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand yesterday.
PA-Sen: Arlen Specter snagged another valuable endorsement yesterday, this time from the 191,000-strong Pennsylvania State Education Association. (JL)
WI-Sen: A source close to Tommy Thompson's jowls says that the former governor is "50-50" on whether he will play Droopy Dog in the upcoming remake.
SC-Gov: It's payback time - Willard Mitt Romney is endorsing Mark Sanford protégé and state Rep. Nikki Haley for governor. Haley, as you've probably gathered, had endorsed Mittens in 2008 for the key SC primary. Other presidential wannabes have also returned the favor to their respective buddies; Reid Wilson has the full scorecard.
AZ-08: GOPer Jonathan Paton, who recently resigned from the state Senate to challenge Rep. Gabby Giffords, was added to the NRCC's Young Guns program. Three other Republicans are seeking their party's nod, including one candidate already on the Young Guns list, Marine Corps vet Jesse Kelly. Paton is almost certainly the establishment favorite, though.
LA-02: It's hard to know what to make of the GOP's attitude toward Joe Cao's seat. On the one hand, they let him get mixed up with the sketchmeisters at BMW Direct. On the other, John Boehner just held a $500/person fundraiser for Cao last night on Capitol Hill. But then on the flipside, it looks like Cao will flip-flop and vote against healthcare this time, which will surely doom him in November. So why waste the money on him? Perhaps GOP bigs figure that buying Cao off will pay dividends when the party is able to point to unanimous opposition to the healthcare bill.
ND-AL: The campaign manager for former state House Majority Leader Rick Berg, a leading challenger to Earl Pomeroy, resigned yesterday, after misusing a state Republican Party email list and lying about it.
NY-13: Andy Stern wasn't kidding. The SEIU is running a full-page ad in today's Staten Island Advance urging Rep. Mike McMahon to vote in favor of healthcare reform. Greg Sargent has a copy of the full ad (PDF). This ad could presage a primary or third-party challenge should McMahon vote no, something Stern has already threatened.
SD-AL: Steve Hildebrand, a top Obama campaign official, says he's considering a challenge to Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in the Democratic primary, particularly if she votes against healthcare.
DNC: This is Not News. DNC chair Tim Kaine says that Organizing for America will help Dems who vote "yes" on healthcare reform... but of course doesn't say that he'll withhold help from Dems who vote "no." I wouldn't expect him to, hence why this is Not News.
Healthcare: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce absolutely, definitely, most assuredly is not not NOT concern trolling House Democrats on the upcoming healthcare vote. They have our best interests at heart, and spent money on polling because they genuinely care about us.
Much more interesting poll numbers on healthcare can be found here. It turns out that the public was evenly divided on Medicare before it became law, too. Now, of course, the program is unassailable.
Kentucky: A bill to let independents vote in Democratic or Republican primaries died in the KY House.
WATN: I guess with Eric Massa stealing the limelight these days, Mark Foley feels emboldened to make his return to DC. He'll be a guest at one of those unduly cozy black-tie beltway affairs, the Radio and TV Correspondents' Dinner.
SSP: I'm not done begging. We're at 1,386 Twitter followers. SO close to 1,400. Make it happen. Pretty please?
• AR-Sen: The news that the guy who held Blanche Lincoln to within about 10 points last time (in 2004) is getting back in the race this year seems like it should be a bigger news story than it is, but there's an already filled-to-capacity GOP field and the establishment seems to have already picked favorites. At any rate, former state Sen. Jim Holt, closely linked with the state's religious right, officially launched his bid today.
• AZ-Sen: It's look more and more like ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth is serious about pursuing a Republican primary challenge to John McCain and not just looking to fundraise his way out of some lingering legal debts. He's been contacting consultants and pollsters about strategy, and he's also made some high-profile appearances recently, including headlining a fundraiser for controversial Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. In response to the possible challenge, John McCain is launching two different radio ads full of right-wing language pretty transparently aimed at the teabagging crowd, saying Barack Obama is "leading an extreme left-wing crusade" and calling himself "Arizona's last line of defense."
• CT-Sen: Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves, but it's looking likelier that starting in 2013, Richard Blumenthal will be Connecticut's senior senator. PPP finds that Joe Lieberman's numbers, not good before his HCR sabotage, have gotten even worse. His approval is a mind-blowing 14/81 among Democrats (probably ending any plans by him to seek the Democratic nomination in 2012). He fares least worst among Republicans, who give him a 39/48 approval; it's good for a 25/67 approval over all, along with a 19/68 approval of his actions on health care (which pissed off Democrats while still leaving Republicans unhappy when he voted for final passage). While the Hill's piece on Rep. Chris Murphy seems to be based mostly on a vague sentence by Murphy, it does point to a suddenly congealing CW that Murphy (with Blumenthal already engaged) will be the person to tackle Lieberman in 2012.
• FL-Sen, FL-Gov: You know you're in trouble when you're spending valuable time fighting rumors spread on Facebook by thoroughly discredited ex-Rep. Mark Foley. Charlie Crist today said there's no truth to the rumors that he's about to drop his faltering Senate primary bid and try for re-election as Governor instead.
• IL-Sen: Patrick Hughes, who's been seeding his right-wing insurgent bid with some of his own money, is seeking to break out of the single digits in the GOP primary polls against Rep. Mark Kirk by upping his name recognition. He's out with a TV spot today.
• MA-Sen: Martha Coakley is shifting her sleepy general election campaign into overdrive today with the special election several weeks away, launching her first general election TV ad. She's also receiving the endorsements today of most of the key figures in the Kennedy clan, including Ted's widow Vicky and ex-Rep. Joe (along with honorary Kennedy and temporary Senator Paul Kirk).
• ND-Sen: As we parse the comments from various potential Democratic candidates in the newly-open Senate race in North Dakota, it sounds like former AG Heidi Heitkamp is "very interested" and "very much looking into" the race, while talk show host Ed Schultz is "at this point... not even considering."
• NY-Sen-B: Here's an interesting possibility surfacing, as the GOP seeks anyone who's willing to take on Kirsten Gillibrand in the Senate race: ex-Rep. Susan Molinari, who was considered a rising star back when she represented NY-13. She's started floating her name out there (or more accurately, her dad, Staten Island GOP leader Guy Molinari), but one key point from the article is that Molinari -- currently employed at the firm of Bracewell & Giuliani (yes, that Giuliani) -- "left Congress in 1997 and currently lives in Virginia." Meanwhile, as the potential Harold Ford Jr. candidacy is still the "wtf?" heard 'round the blogosphere, The Albany Project takes a deeper look at the mysterious forces pushing the idea front and center.
• IL-Gov: Desperately needing to make up some ground on incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn in the last month before the Democratic primary, Comptroller Dan Hynes is going hard negative against Quinn from the apparent right in a new TV spot, painting him as a soft-on-crime tax-raiser. Meanwhile, Quinn got the endorsement from the Chicago Sun-Times.
• MA-Gov: State Treasurer Tim Cahill's independent candidacy for Governor hasn't really seemed to have its desired effect for Cahill, as it mostly has allowed Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick to move ahead in the polls as Cahill splits the anti-Patrick votes. Cahill looks to be trying to lure some more GOP voters into his camp to become the definitive anti-Patrick candidate, though, with his running mate pick, GOP former state Rep. Paul Loscocco. It doesn't sound like Cahill or Loscocco are very enthuasiastic about taking each other to the prom, though; Cahill already got turned down by four previous people he'd asked to be his running mate (including current Senate candidate Scott Brown), and Loscocco had previously been lobbying to be GOP candidate Charlie Baker's running mate but missed the cut on that one.
• MD-Gov: Incumbent Gov. Martin O'Malley seems to have a fairly clear path to re-election, but for the time being he has higher-profile opposition in his own primary than from the Republicans. He's facing a challenge from the right from George Owings, who officially launched today. Owings was a conservative Democratic state Delegate for many years and then picked by GOP Governor Bob Ehrlich as the state's veteran affairs secretary (who was then sacked by O'Malley once he took office); Owings is attacking O'Malley's tax raising and opposition to the death penalty.
• NE-Gov: Democrats are back to square one in the Nebraska gubernatorial race against GOP incumbent Dave Heineman, after Douglas Co. Commissioner (and former Omaha mayor) Mike Boyle -- who'd sounded likely to run last month -- decided against a bid. Democratic state Sen. Steve Lathrop has also ruled the race out.
• CO-03: Martin Beeson, the Republican DA for an agglomeration of small mountain counties, has pulled out of his bid for the GOP nod in the 3rd to challenge Rep. John Salazar. Beeson's hopes dimmed when state Rep. (and 2006 loser) Scott Tipton got into the GOP field a few months ago.
• IL-10: Moderate Republican state Rep. Beth Coulson got a big (if unsurprising) endorsement, from fellow GOP moderate ex-Rep. John Porter. Porter held the seat for 20 years, until he made way for his former chief of staff (current Rep. Mark Kirk) in 2000.
• MN-01: Apparently John Wade, the president of Rochester's Chamber of Commerce, had been interested in a run in the 1st against Democratic sophomore Rep. Tim Walz. He just decided against it, although a lone business conservative seems like he might have a shot at winning the crowded GOP primary, split between a number of loudmouthed social conservatives (most notably ex-state Rep. Allen Quist).
• MS-01: Good fundraising has propelled Republican state Sen. Alan Nunnelee up a tier in the NRCC's framework for challengers. Nunnelee, who'll likely face off against Rep. Travis Childers and his mighty 'stache, is now a "Contender."
• TN-06: Democrats are having trouble recruiting to fill the slot left behind by Rep. Bart Gordon's retirement. State Rep. Henry Fincher just said no; he follows fellow state Rep. Mike McDonald in declining. It can't be that appetizing, given the district's reddening hue, several strong GOPers waiting in the wings, and the likelihood of GOP gerrymandering making the district even less hospitable in 2012.
• UT-03, UT-Sen: I'd be surprised if anyone were on pins and needles about this, but if you missed yesterday's announcement, yes, Rep. Jason Chaffetz will be returning for another term in the House rather than getting into the primary against impermissibily sane GOP Sen. Bob Bennett.
• EMILY's List: Stephanie Shriock, chief of staff to Sen. Jon Tester, will take over as head of EMILY's List from Ellen Malcolm. It marks the first change in leadership at the top for the prolific PAC.
• RNC: After a revolt by what remains of its moderate wing, the RNC has backed down on its purity test (which would require 8 of 10 agreements on right-wing positions, and probably would have cut loose Mike Castle, Mark Kirk, Rob Simmons, and Charlie Crist loose from RNC funding). Now they're simply requiring that nobody endorse any Democratic candidates in 2010. Meanwhile, Michael Steele continues to overshadow the rest of the RNC's operations with his gift of saying odd things, with today's installment a riposte to intraparty critics intent on withholding RNC donations because of Steele's leadership: "get a life" or "fire me."
• Gay marriage: It's been flying under the radar with everything else going on this week, but New Jersey's state Senate is currently debating gay marriage, with a vote possibly later today. Only 13 Senators have definitely committed to it so far though, short of the 21 needed for passage. (Dems are already short 1 vote with the absence of Dana Redd, who resigned after becoming mayor of Camden.)
• Census: Here's an interesting conundrum for the Census Bureau -- how to deal with the issue of the nation's legions of sunbirds: retirees who live in the south for winter and the north for summer. It's especially an issue for Minnesota as it seeks to stave off elimination of one of its Congressional districts, and it's making special efforts to make sure long-term travelers list themselves according to their Minnesota addresses.
• FL-Sen: Here's one late-30-something, telegenic conservative helping out another: WI-01's Rep. Paul Ryan just endorsed Marco Rubio in the Senate primary. Ryan (who's actually been getting some dark-horse presidential buzz lately) may in fact be the real beneficiary here, since it may direct some of Rubio's healthy glow among the teabag set in Ryan's direction, bolstering his future credentials. Speaking of the teabaggers, despite having claimed the scalp of Florida GOP chair and key Charlie Crist ally Jim Greer, they still aren't happy with the annointment of John Thrasher as the new chair; apparently he too is insufficiently crazy, or at least part of the same backroom process. Finally, take this with a huge hunk o' salt, but ex-Rep. Mark Foley is highlighting a rumor on his Facebook page (yes, Mark Foley is on Facebook, and I'm not eager to think about what else might be on his page) that Charlie Crist is on the precipice of pulling his FL-Sen bid altogether and running for another term as Governor instead.
• NY-Sen-B: Lots of walking-things-back going on in New York's Senate race. Republican Rep. Peter King is now saying he's "leaning against" a Senate bid. Taegan Goddard rightly invokes both Mario Cuomo and Hamlet in ridiculing King's protracted public vacillations. And ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. also may be dialing things down too, in regards to a possible primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand. An operative working with Ford is now saying that Ford is "unlikely to take the plunge," and seemed more interested in "creating buzz" for himself. (Why am I not surprised?)
• AZ-Gov: The GOP primary field in Arizona is getting even more scrambled, with the entry of Some Dude who claims to be bringing $2.1 million to the table with him. Owen Buz Mills' campaign report was the first anyone has seemingly heard of him. He's a member of the National Rifle Association's board of directors, and owner of a company called Gunsite (which operates a 2,000 acre weapons training site). Current Gov. Jan Brewer said she wouldn't be deterred by Mills' presence, as did former state regent John Munger (who probably has more to lose by Mills' entry, as he's sort of the de facto non-Brewer for now, at least until or unless state Treasurer Dean Martin gets in the race).
• CO-Gov: While much of the speculation, in the wake of Gov. Bill Ritter's surprise decision not to seek another term, has focused on Denver mayor John Hickenlooper, or a switch from the Senate primary by former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, there's one other high-profile possibility: Interior Secretary, and former Senator, Ken Salazar. Salazar, however, is staying mum, for now. PPP's Tom Jensen is skeptical of a Salazar candidacy, though, pointing out that Salazar didn't have strong favorables (39/36 in late 2008) even before he joined the Obama administration, and Colorado has seen one of the biggest drops in Obama approvals of any state, making his time in the Cabinet something of an anchor for him.
• CT-Gov: Three sort-of prominent local officials are all scoping out the already-crowded Governor's race in the Nutmeg State. On the Dem side, the First Selectwoman of Simsbury, Mary Glassman, said she'll seek the nomination (she was the 2006 Lt. Governor candidate). On the GOP side, Shelton mayor Mark Lauretti says he's considering the race; he's banking on his nearly 20 years of experience running the city, although he is currently the target of a federal corruption probe. (Although what Connecticut mayor isn't?) Also, the Republican mayor of the much larger city of Danbury, Mark Boughton, says he's reached a decision on whether or not to enter the race. The weird thing is, he doesn't plan to let anyone know what that decision is for another month.
• AL-02: Businessman Rick Barber made it official today: he's launching a teabag-powered primary challenge to the NRCC-crowned establishment favorite, Montgomery city councilor Martha Roby. He owns several "billiards facilities" in the area, as well as organizing tea parties in his spare time. The primary winner will face freshman Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright.
• AR-02: Another GOP establishment fave, former US Attorney Tim Griffin, just got bumped up a notch in the NRCC's three-tiered fundraising pyramid [scheme]. He was promoted to "Contender," leaving him just one step away from coveted "Young Gun" status.
• CA-19: With a big three-way brawl already brewing in the GOP open seat primary between ex-Rep. Richard Pombo, state Sen. Jeff Denham, and former Fresno mayor Jim Patterson, ex-SoS and 2004 Senate race loser Bill Jones has decided to give the race a pass.
• NJ-03: One possible alternative to Jon Runyan as the GOP nominee in the 3rd said "no thanks" yesterday. State Sen. Christopher Connors was apparently the first choice of the Ocean County Republican party; Runyan is the Burlington County party's pick, so it remains to be seen whether Ocean County unites behind Runyan or pushes someone else (like Toms River city councilor Maurice Hill).
• TN-08: The NRCC, based purely on their own fantasies, has been attempting to "gay bait" Dem Roy Herron. And of course, the tradmed has dutifully transcribed whatever bullshit the NRCC has spewed out. Funny, then, that the kid spokesbot responsible for this smear enjoys attending "GOB festivals." No, Arrested Development fans, this has nothing to do with erstwhile ne'er-do-well George Oscar Bluth. Just click the link and John Aravosis will tell you all you need to know. (D)
• VA-05: The teabagging right keeps coalescing behind businessman Laurence Verga as the Republican primary alternative to state Sen. Robert Hurt (who apparently voted in favor of a tax once)... and now Verga is getting the endorsement of one of their iconic figures: Samuel "Joe the Plumber" Wurzelbacher. Could a Chuck Norris endorsement be far behind?
• UT-03, UT-Sen: Freshman Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz is expected to announce today that he'll run for another term in the House. He's been occasionally associated with a potential primary challenge to Senator Bob Bennett, but has more recently said he's likelier to seek re-election to the House.
• WA-St. Sen.: This is getting way down in the weeds, but remember attorney Randy Gordon? He was briefly the leading Democratic candidate in the 2006 race in WA-08, before standing down in the primary in favor of a Camp Wellstone classmate with better fundraising chops: Darcy Burner. Well, it looks like he's secured the temporary appointment to take over the vacant state Senate seat in the 41st LD, left vacant by Fred Jarrett's move to become Deputy King Co. Executive; he should have a fairly easy time retaining this Dem-leaning seat based in suburban Bellevue.
• Mayors: Here's a wild rumor (with Sally Quinn as its source): ex-Rep. and current CoS Rahm Emanuel isn't planning on a long-term stay in the White House. Emanuel is reportedly eyeing a run for Chicago mayor in 2011. Also on the mayoral front, Baltimore mayor Sheila Dixon is leaving office; she offered her resignation and an Alford plea on a count of perjury in order to settle a number of charges against her.
• DCCC: Chris Van Hollen offered some boilerplate reassurances today that few, if any, Democratic retirements in the House are in the offing. He said there would be a "couple more," if that. (With almost all the troublesome seats accounted for, that's not a surprise; SC-05's John Spratt seems to be the biggest question mark outstanding in a difficult seat.) (UPDATE: Ooops, I missed Spratt's re-election announcement over the holidays. So now I don't know who's vulnerable and unaccounted for.)
• RNC: By now, readers should be familiar with the NRCC's cash crunch, which severely hampers its ability to capitalize on recruiting successes and the favorable environment. But anyone thinking they might turn to the RNC for a bailout may be surprised to hear that the once-flush RNC is in almost equally dire shape. After a spending spree under Michael Steele's leadership (to the tune of $90 million last year), the RNC is only sitting on $8.7 million in the bank. That's down from $22.8 CoH at the start of Steele's tenure. That's the party of fiscal discipline at work for you, right there.
We know money and several other factors have major effects on House races. But after we account for these major factors, how much advantage does incumbency give a candidate? A gerrymandered district? Getting caught in a scandal?
Yesterday I showed some regressions for Republican performance in House races for the years 2002, 2004, and 2006 that take account of incumbent party, fundraising ratio, and district partisan makeup.
Using these, we can tell how well we expect a Republican to do given certain conditions. However, the regressions are not perfect - the data don't fall along the lines plotted. There's plenty of room for other factors to be involved. We can use the differences between what we expect and what actually happened - the residuals - to tease out the effects of additional conditions. Below, a pack of factors, from the most important - money, party, district - to the less important ones - incumbency, gerrymandering, longevity - to the more interesting ones - scandal and failure.
The Democratic field is cleared for State Senator John Unger (campaign site) to challenge Foleygate/Page Board scandal star and incumbent Wall Street Journal Republican Shelley Capito for West Virginia's Second Congressional District seat.
The Democratic House leadership seems to be lining up behind Unger's bid to unseat the increasingly vulnerable Capito, hopefully giving Unger vital early support in a district the Democratic leadership dreadfully under-invested in the 2006 cycle. Unger has even been honored as one of Rahm Emanuel's "Six Pack", one of only six candidates to whom he has donated so far in this cycle.
It is a very encouraging sign that Monday evening six of the leading House Democrats (including Hoyer, Emanuel, and Van Hollen) will host a big old fundraiser (info) for Unger.
In 2006 Democrats picked most of the low-hanging fruit in regaining the House majority. Seats in which we have a legitimate takeover opportunity are few and far between (and we have several seats we won in 2006 we are going to be hard-pressed to hold and need to offset).
John Unger's campaign in 60-some percent Democratic registration WV-02 offers us a chance to pick the GOP's pockets of a seat which traditionally belongs to us. Read on for the who, how and why.
