Paulsen takes the slimmest of leads in SurveyUSA's latest Minnesota poll. This seems to run counter to the general sense that Madia has been pulling away from Paulsen in recent days. Of course, like a lot of SUSA polls from Minnesota, there are weird things at work in the crosstabs. For instance, Paulsen takes a 44-41 lead among 18 to 34 year-olds (a group where Madia had held a 52-42 lead earlier in the month).
It seems that the kids just can't get enough of the GOP in Minnesota -- the kids who are square enough to answer their landline and talk to a robot pollster, at least.
SUSA has produced some pretty favorable polls for Republicans this year in Minnesota in both the Presidential and Senate contests, so I'll take this one with a grain of salt.
We wrote earlier about the NRCC canceling ad buys in NV-03 and NM-01, but a knowledgeable friend of SSP writes in with a few more details on the NRCC's retreat:
FL-16 - NRCC - TV - cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in West Palm and Ft. Myers
ID-01 - NRCC - TV - Spokane - cancels weeks of 10/7 and 10/14
KS-02 - NRCC - TV - Cancelled flight 10/21-10/27 in all markets
LA-06 - NRCC-TV- Cancelled flight 10/21-10/27 in Baton Rouge
MN-03 - NRCC- TV - cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in Minneapolis
NV-03 - NRCC - TV - broadcast and cable flights 10/14-10/20 cancelled
TX-22 - NRCC - TV - Cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in Houston.
Ashwin Madia (D): 46 (41)
Erik Paulsen (R): 43 (44)
David Dillon (IP): 8
(MoE: ±4%)
These numbers aren't far off from a recent DCCC internal poll showing Madia leading by 44-39. SUSA still seems to have a questionably GOP-tilted sample of young voters (they break for Paulsen by a 51-40 margin in this poll), but that might be offset by a possibly-skewed 53-38 Madia lead among 50-to-64 year-olds.
Interestingly, Tom Scheck over at Minnesota Public Radio writes that the NRCC has scaled back their mid-October ad rotation in support of Paulsen, though the committee still has $216,450 in reserved time available. Are they shifting that scrilla to any number of their many incumbents in tight races?
Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 49-47 in this district. Bush beat Kerry here by 51-48 in 2004. Crosstabs are available here (PDF).
Ashwin Madia (D): 44
Erik Paulsen (R): 39
David Dillon (IP): 8
(MoE: ±4.9%)
A SurveyUSA poll from a month earlier gave Paulsen a 44-41 lead. Since then, Paulsen has been engaging in some bizarre slams of Madia for not possessing the "suburban life experience" that comes with having kids and a mortgage. It's all part of a vaguely racist campaign to paint Madia, an Iraq Vet and the son of Indian-American immigrants, as something other than a "real" Minnesotan.
The DCCC filed $1.37 million worth in media buys in support of Democratic House candidates tonight. Here's the damage:
District
Incumbent
Group
Media Buy
AL-02
Open
DCCC
$91,520
AL-05
Open
DCCC
$60,700
AZ-01
Open
DCCC
$183,679
AZ-05
Mitchell
DCCC
$168,245
AZ-08
Giffords
DCCC
$58,462
CT-04
Shays
DCCC
$119,130
FL-16
Mahoney
DCCC
$91,081
IL-11
Open
DCCC
$40,953
KY-02
Open
DCCC
$88,977
LA-06
Cazayoux
OPHTHPAC
$49,163
MD-01
Open
DCCC
$145,851
MI-07
Walberg
DCCC
$63,040
MI-09
Knollenberg
DCCC
$47,392
MN-03
Open
DCCC
$131,894
VA-11
Open
DCCC
$80,915
Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has aired ads in AZ-08, FL-16, KY-02, MD-01, and VA-11.
The lone GOP-friendly media buy comes from the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology, which is dropping cash in support of Republican Bill Cassidy (himself an MD) in his race against Don Cazayoux. See you in hell, eye doctors!
But don't get the impression that this is one-sided affair just because the NRCC is holding its musket fire. Freedom's Crotch is up with some ad buys of its own smearing Democrats:
AL-02: $150,000
IL-11: $430,000
NJ-03: $74,000
NJ-07: $500,000
The Crotch is also spending an unspecified amount on NM-01 and NV-03. Ugh.
Team Madia is up with it's second ad. And again, I'm very impressed.
Most Democrats run ads of them talking to people while MIDDLE CLASS TAX CUTS, ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, HEALTH CARE FOR ALL, END WAR IN IRAQ flash on the bottom of the screen. Sure those are all popular poll tested themes but those kind of ads are boring and unmemorable not to mention ineffective.
Madia's ad's are unconventional, interesting and convey his message in a much more memorable way. I'd really like to know who made these ads. For those who missed it, here is his last ad:
These numbers are pretty much the spitting image of a GQR internal poll conducted for state Sen. Terri Bonoff earlier this year. In that poll, Paulsen was leading Madia by 43-40.
While GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad held this district with ease for many years, it's a tightly-contested district on the presidential level. In 2004, Bush edged Kerry by three points here, and in SUSA's polling, Obama is squeaking past McCain here by 48-46.
One finding from SUSA's crosstabs is pretty, well, unique:
Despite the fact that Obama is 47 years old and Madia is just in his 30s, it was Republican candidates who had the slight edge among younger voters in the district. Among voters 18-49, Paulsen led Madia, 45 percent to 38 percent. Madia was preferred by voters 50 and older, 44 percent to 42 percent.
The same trend held true in the presidential matchup. McCain led among the younger set of voters, 48 percent to 46 percent, while Obama was ahead among those 50 and older, 50 percent to 45 percent.
Madia has just gone up on the airwaves with a soft introductory ad, but it's worth pointing out the incredibly frenzied fundraising pace of both Madia and GOP state Rep. Erik Paulsen. This one could be a tight battle all the way to the finish line.
Today is Ashwin Madia Blog Day and so as a supporter from pretty much the day the primary field settled. I thought I'd post a little bit about why I've been part of Madiamania for so long. It shouldn't be two hard beacuse two blogs today, Ashin's in The Hill and Howie Klein's on DownWithTyranny, have spelled out my main reason pretty well. I've supported Ashwin Madia since the start beacuse he has courage.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
