SSP Daily Digest: 5/25 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue May 25, 2010 at 8:08 AM EDT

IA-Sen: Conlin (D) launches first tv ad

by: desmoinesdem

Mon May 24, 2010 at 12:03 PM EDT

“I’m Roxanne Conlin. Taking on the special interests has been the cause of my life. Like taking on the big banks to help family farms at risk of foreclosure. I took on corrupt politicians and corporations who violated the public trust. I’m running for U.S. Senate to take this fight to Washington. Fight for relief on Main Street, not more bailouts for Wall Street. Because the special interests have had their turn. Now, it’s our turn. I’m Roxanne Conlin and I approved this message."

Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 16

by: Crisitunity

Mon May 10, 2010 at 10:34 PM EDT

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 29 (36)
John Boozman (R): 57 (51)
Some other: 9 (6)
Not sure: 5 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 30 (35)
Kim Hendren (R): 51 (51)
Some other: 11 (5)
Not sure: 8 (8)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 31 (36)
Gilbert Baker (R): 53 (51)
Some other: 12 (6)
Not sure: 4 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 32 (36)
Curtis Coleman (R): 52 (48)
Some other: 8 (7)
Not sure: 7 (8)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 31 (35)
Jim Holt (R): 54 (51)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 9 (7)

Bill Halter (D): 31 (34)
John Boozman (R): 56 (48)
Some other: 7 (8)
Not sure: 7 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 33 (34)
Kim Hendren (R): 45 (42)
Some other: 13 (10)
Not sure: 9 (13)

Bill Halter (D): 33 (36)
Gilbert Baker (R): 48 (44)
Some other: 10 (7)
Not sure: 9 (12)

Bill Halter (D): 37 (37)
Curtis Coleman (R): 43 (40)
Some other: 11 (10)
Not sure: 9 (13)

Bill Halter (D): 31 (34)
Jim Holt (R): 49 (43)
Some other: 12 (9)
Not sure: 8 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

AZ-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 4/16 in parentheses):

Terry Goddard (D): 40 (40)
Jan Brewer (R-inc): 48 (44)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 5 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

CO-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 4/5 in parentheses):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (41)
Jane Norton (R): 48 (46)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 6 (8)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (40)
Ken Buck (R): 48 (44)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 7 (12)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 42 (39)
Tom Wiens (R): 44 (45)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 9 (12)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 39 (38)
Jane Norton (R): 46 (49)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 8 (8)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (37)
Ken Buck (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 11 (13)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (38)
Tom Wiens (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 11 (11)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

CT-Gov (5/4, likely voters, 4/1 in parentheses):

Ned Lamont (D): 42 (37)
Thomas Foley (R): 35 (44)
Some other: 11 (7)
Not sure: 13 (13)

Ned Lamont (D): 48 (41)
Michael Fedele (R): 28 (38)
Some other: 9 (9)
Not sure: 15 (12)

Dan Malloy (D): 38 (35)
Thomas Foley (R): 35 (44)
Some other: 11 (8)
Not sure: 16 (14)

Dan Malloy (D): 44 (40)
Michael Fedele (R): 27 (37)
Some other: 10 (7)
Not sure: 20 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

CT-Sen (5/4, likely voters, 4/7 in parentheses):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 52 (55)
Linda McMahon (R): 39 (35)
Some other: 6 (3)
Not sure: 4 (6)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (52)
Rob Simmons (R): 32 (38)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 8 (6)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 54 (58)
Peter Schiff (R): 29 (32)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 11 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

DE-Sen (4/29, likely voters, 2/22 in parentheses):

Chris Coons (D): 32 (32)
Mike Castle (R): 55 (53)
Some other: 7 (8)
Not sure: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 4/21 in parentheses):

Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (22)
Marco Rubio (R): 34 (37)
Charlie Crist (I): 38 (30)
Not sure: 11 (11)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Gov (4/28, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):

Roy Barnes (D): 43 (41)
John Oxendine (R): 45 (41)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 6 (11)

Roy Barnes (D): 39 (40)
Nathan Deal (R): 46 (43)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 8 (13)

Roy Barnes (D): 41 (39)
Karen Handel (R): 42 (42)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 10 (14)

Roy Barnes (D): 42 (40)
Eric Johnson (R): 37 (38)
Some other: 8 (6)
Not sure: 13 (16)

Thurbert Baker (D): 34
John Oxendine (R): 44
Some other: 9
Not sure: 13

Thurbert Baker (D): 31
Nathan Deal (R): 47
Some other: 9
Not sure: 13

Thurbert Baker (D): 36
Karen Handel (R): 44
Some other: 5
Not sure: 15

Thurbert Baker (D): 35
Eric Johnson (R): 38
Some other: 9
Not sure: 18
(MoE: ±4.5%)

IA-Gov (4/29, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):

Chet Culver (D-inc): 38 (36)
Terry Branstad (R): 53 (52)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 3 (6)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (40)
Bob Vander Plaats (R): 45 (42)
Some other: 9 (8)
Not sure: 5 (11)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 43 (40)
Rod Roberts (R): 41 (38)
Some other: 9 (10)
Not sure: 7 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

IA-Sen (4/29, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):

Roxanne Conlin (D): 40 (36)
Charles Grassley (R-inc): 53 (55)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 4 (5)

Bob Krause (D): 31 (31)
Charles Grassley (R-inc): 57 (57)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 8 (8)

Tom Fiegen (D): 30 (28)
Charles Grassley (R-inc): 57 (57)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Gov (4/28, likely voters, 4/5 in parentheses):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38 (38)
Bill Brady (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 11 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Sen (4/28, likely voters, 3/ in parentheses):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38 (37)
Mark Kirk (R): 46 (41)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 12 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

IN-Sen (5/5-6, likely voters, 4/13-14 in parentheses):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 36 (33)
Dan Coats (R): 51 (54)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 8 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

KY-Sen (4/28, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):

Jack Conway (D): 38 (36)
Rand Paul (R): 47 (50)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 10 (11)

Jack Conway (D): 38 (32)
Trey Grayson (R): 43 (52)
Some other: 8 (5)
Not sure: 12 (11)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 32 (37)
Rand Paul (R): 48 (52)
Some other: 8 (3)
Not sure: 12 (8)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 31 (33)
Trey Grayson (R): 45 (53)
Some other: 10 (5)
Not sure: 13 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

MI-Gov (D primary) (4/22, likely voters, 3/24 in parentheses):

Andy Dillon (D): 13 (12)
Virg Bernero (D): 12 (8)
Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 9 (10)
Some other: 15 (17)
Not sure: 51 (53)
(MoE: ±6%)

MI-Gov (R primary) (4/22, likely voters, 3/24 in parentheses):

Peter Hoekstra (R): 28 (27)
Rick Snyder (R): 14 (18)
Mike Cox (R): 13 (13)
Mike Bouchard (R): 9 (6)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 32 (32)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

MO-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):

Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (41)
Roy Blunt (R): 50 (47)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 4 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NC-Sen (5/5, likely voters, 4/19 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 40 (32)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 48 (50)
Some other: 3 (6)
Not sure: 9 (12)

Cal Cunningham (D): 37 (31)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 50 (53)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 10 (13)
(MoE: ±3%)

NC-Sen (D runoff) (5/5, likely voters, no trendlines):

Elaine Marshall (D): 42
Cal Cunningham (D): 37
Some other: 4
Not sure: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-AL (4/20, likely voters, 3/23 in parentheses):

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 45 (44)
Rick Berg (R): 49 (51)
Some other: 2 (1)
Not sure: 4 (4)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-Sen (4/20, likely voters, 3/23 in parentheses):

Tracy Potter (D): 24 (25)
John Hoeven (R): 69 (68)
Some other: 2 (2)
Not sure: 5 (5)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):

Rory Reid (D): 47 (43)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 37 (45)
Some other: 12 (8)
Not sure: 3 (4)

Rory Reid (D): 35 (34)
Brian Sandoval (R): 53 (55)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 5 (4)

Rory Reid (D): 39 (38)
Mike Montandon (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 9 (9)
Not sure: 8 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Sen (4/27, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (39)
Sue Lowden (R): 52 (54)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 3 (2)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 (42)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 51 (49)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 4 (2)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (40)
Sharron Angle (R): 48 (51)
Some other: 7 (6)
Not sure: 4 (3)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NY-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 3/29 in parentheses):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 56 (52)
Rick Lazio (R): 24 (29)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 14 (13)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 50 (50)
Steve Levy (R): 27 (26)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 17 (17)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 55 (51)
Carl Paladino (R): 25 (28)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 14 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Gov (5/5, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45 (45)
John Kasich (R): 46 (46)
Some other: 3 (2)
Not sure: 6 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Sen (5/5, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 43 (38)
Rob Portman (R): 42 (43)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

OR-Gov (4/26, likely voters, 2/17 in parentheses):

John Kitzhaber (D): 41 (42)
Chris Dudley (R): 41 (36)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 13 (15)

John Kitzhaber (D): 48 (42)
Allen Alley (R): 33 (34)
Some other: 6 (8)
Not sure: 13 (16)

John Kitzhaber (D): 50 (40)
John Lim (R): 34 (38)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 12 (14)

Bill Bradbury (D): 40 (39)
Chris Dudley (R): 40 (36)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 13 (17)

Bill Bradbury (D): 43 (41)
Allen Alley (R): 34 (35)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 16 (16)

Bill Bradbury (D): 44 (38)
John Lim (R): 32 (35)
Some other: 9 (9)
Not sure: 15 (17)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Gov (D primary) (5/6, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dan Onorato (D): 34
Jack Wagner (D): 17
Anthony Williams (D): 17
Joe Hoeffel (D): 9
Some other: 6
Not sure: 17
(MoE: ±5%)

PA-Sen (5/6, likely voters, 4/12 in parentheses):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 38 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 50 (50)
Some other: 7 (4)
Not sure: 6 (6)

Joe Sestak (D): 40 (36)
Pat Toomey (R): 42 (47)
Some other: 10 (5)
Not sure: 9 (12)
(MoE: ±3%)

PA-Sen (D primary) (5/6, likely voters, 4/12 in parentheses):

Joe Sestak (D): 47 (42)
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42 (44)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 8 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)

RI-Gov (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):

Frank Caprio (D): 33 (28)
John Robitaille (R): 21 (22)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 33 (39)
Not sure: 13 (11)

Patrick Lynch (D): 24 (22)
John Robitaille (R): 26 (26)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 35 (37)
Not sure: 15 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

SD-AL (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 45 (44)
Chris Nelson (R): 41 (42)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 9 (9)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 50 (46)
Kristi Noem (R): 35 (35)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 9 (10)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 48 (45)
Blake Curd (R): 36 (33)
Some other: 7 (8)
Not sure: 9 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

SD-Gov (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):

Scott Heidepriem (D): 33 (32)
Dennis Daugaard (R): 53 (49)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 9 (13)

Scott Heidepriem (D): 41 (37)
Dave Knudson (R): 41 (32)
Some other: 9 (13)
Not sure: 10 (19)

Scott Heidepriem (D): 46 (39)
Gordon Howie (R): 31 (34)
Some other: 8 (9)
Not sure: 14 (17)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

WA-Sen (5/4, likely voters, 4/6 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)
Dino Rossi (R): 46 (46)
Some other: 2 (3)
Not sure: 3 (4)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 52 (48)
Don Benton (R): 38 (40)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 7 (8)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 51 (47)
Clint Didier (R): 36 (37)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 8 (11)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 49 (45)
Paul Akers (R): 35 (37)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 10 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

IA-Sen, IA-Gov: Grassley Under 50, Culver Still in Real Trouble

by: DavidNYC

Thu May 06, 2010 at 10:49 PM EDT

IA-Sen:

Roxanne Conlin (D): 40 (35)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 49 (56)
Undecided: 11 (9)
(MoE: ±4%)

These are nice numbers for Roxanne Conlin, who is still unknown to 20% of likely vteros. However, R2K's polling (including their first poll of this race for Daily Kos) has really bounced around a lot. In October of last year, it was Grassley +12, then Grassley +21 in February, and now Grassley +9. I'm not really sure there's an explanation for this gyration. (And as far as I understand, R2K used the same methodology for both clients - and you can see that the question wording is the same, too.)

IA-Gov:

Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (38)
Terry Branstad (R): 48 (54)
Undecided: 11 (8)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 44 (41)
Bob van der Plaats (R): 40 (38)
Undecided: 16 (21)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 46 (48)
Rod Roberts (R): 36 (26)
Undecided: 18 (26)
(MoE: ±4%)

Again, a lot of bouncing in the toplines: Branstad +5 to Branstad +16 to Brandstad +7. The latest survey is good news for Culver, sure, but that's a bit like saying Dukakis did better than Mondale - the numbers still suck.

IA-Sen: Rasmussen finds Grassley lead shrinking

by: desmoinesdem

Mon May 03, 2010 at 2:41 PM EDT

Survey questions and toplines are here.

IA-Sen: Conlin releases strong fundraising numbers (updated)

by: desmoinesdem

Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 12:04 PM EDT

IA-Sen: Grassley Embarrasses Majority of Iowans; Less Than Half Would Re-Elect

by: Senate Guru

Tue Apr 06, 2010 at 11:46 AM EDT

New polling by Research 2000 finds that Republican Chuck Grassley is far more vulnerable than the conventional wisdom gives him (dis)credit for.

When asked if Grassley should be re-elected, only 42% said re-elect, while 31% said it was time for someone new, and 27% were not sure.  (Remember, being unsure about an incumbent of twenty-nine years bodes poorly for the incumbent.)  Among independents, only 39% said re-elect.  Not too hot.

The money question of the poll was:

When Senator Chuck Grassley says President Obama and Democrats would QUOTE "pull the plug on grandma" UNQUOTE do you think that does Iowa proud in Congress or embarrasses Iowa?

By more than a 2-to-1 margin (53% to 26%), Iowans responded that Grassley's comments embarrassed them rather than made them proud.  Among independents, the embarrass-proud ratio was an overwhelming 61-21.  Research 2000 broke down the responses by Congressional district.  Outside of right-wing radical Steve King's 5th Congressional district (which saw a 30-51 embarrass-proud ratio), every other district was overwhelmingly embarrassed by Grassley's remarks.  The other four Congressional districts ranged from 53-64% embarrassed while only 19-24% proud.

Very interestingly, while only 35% of respondents favored the Senate version of the health care reform bill, while 56% opposed it, 62% of respondents favored a public option (a 2-to-1 margin over the 31% of respondents that opposed a public option); and, moreover, by more than a 3-to-1 margin, Iowans want Democratic Senator Tom Harkin to fight harder for a public option and would respect him more if he did.

The message from these numbers is clear: Iowans are open to voting for an alternative to Republican Chuck Grassley, would support a public option (and many who opposed health care reform in Iowa simply feel that it didn't go far enough), and were embarrassed by Grassley's dishonest kowtowing to the teabaggers with his "pull the plug on grandma" routine.

The Iowa Independent reminds us:

The "pull the plug on grandma" statement, which was part of the death panel meme Pulitzer Prize winning Web site PolitiFact named its "Lie of the Year," dogged Grassley throughout the last few months of 2009 and was cited by at least one of the three Democrats vying to unseat him as the reason for entering the race.

Grassley's own numbers must be telling him that his lies could constitute a politically fatal flub given how freaked out he got over the discussion of his comments and how he tripped over himself backpedaling:

By the end of the year, though, Grassley was blaming media reports for his association with the death panels meme. In a letter to a constituent forwarded to The Iowa Independent, Grassley said some "commentators" took his comments and twisted them as saying that health care reform would establish death panels.

"I said no such thing," Grassley said. "As I said then, putting end-of-life consultations alongside cost containment and government-run health care causes legitimate concern."

Who was that Democrat who cited Grassley's comments as a reason for entering the race?  Attorney and Democratic former gubernatorial nominee Roxanne Conlin.  She got into the race in late 2009, so this past quarter's fundraising report will be the first test of her campaign's financial viability.  Word is, she's a fairly prodigious fundraiser.

On top of that, Grassley has handed her the issue and according message frames on which to run.  Notably to me, Conlin has five grandchildren.  In other words, she is a grandma.  I think it would be powerfully resonant for Conlin to put out an ad highlighting Grassley's "pull the plug on grandma" comments that embarrassed a majority of Iowans and to close the ad (while talking to the camera, surrounded by her five grandchildren) with the line, "I'm Roxanne Conlin, and I approved this message because I'm a grandma and I'm embarrassed that Chuck Grassley is talking about pulling the plug on me."

Keep a close eye on IA-Sen; I'm expecting a competitive race that will surprise the traditional media.

Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 12

by: James L.

Wed Mar 24, 2010 at 12:54 AM EDT

AZ-Gov (3/16, likely voters, 1/20 in parens):

Terry Goddard (D): 45 (43)
Jan Brewer (R-inc): 36 (41)
Other: 12 (7)
Undecided: 7 (9)

Terry Goddard (D): 38 (35)
Dean Martin (R): 43 (44)
Other: 6 (6)
Undecided: 13 (14)

Terry Goddard (D): 42
John Munger (R): 36
Other: 13
Undecided: 9

Terry Goddard (D): 37
Buz Mills (R): 43
Other: 7
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Sen (3/18, likely voters):

Kendrick Meek (D): 25
Marco Rubio (R): 45
Charlie Crist (I): 22
(MoE: ±3%)

FL-Sen (R) (3/18, likely voters, 2/18 in parens):

Marco Rubio (R): 56 (54)
Charlie Crist (R): 34 (36)
Other: 1 (4)
Undecided: 8 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

IA-Sen (3/17, likely voters, 2/22 in parens):

Roxanne Conlin (D): 36 (36)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 55 (53)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 5 (6)

Bob Krause (D): 31 (33)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 57 (55)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 8 (8)

Tom Fiegen (D): 28 (28)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 57 (56)
Some other: 7 (6)
Not sure: 9 (11)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

IN-Sen (3/17-18, likely voters, 2/16-17 in parens):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 34 (32)
Dan Coats (R): 49 (46)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 12 (15)

Brad Ellsworth (D): 32 (27)
John Hostettler (R): 50 (46)
Some other: 4 (7)
Not sure: 15 (19)

Brad Ellsworth (D): 34 (30)
Marlin Stutzman (R): 41 (40)
Some other: 6 (9)
Not sure: 18 (21)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

VT-Sen (3/18, likely voters):

Pat Leahy (D-inc): 58
Republican Candidate (R): 33
Other: 2
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ±4.5%)

VT-Gov (3/18, likely voters):

Deb Markowitz (D): 39
Brian Dubie (R): 46
Other: 4
Undecided: 10

Doug Racine (D): 35
Brian Dubie (R): 48
Other: 5
Undecided: 12

Peter Shumlin (D): 33
Brian Dubie (R): 51
Other: 6
Undecided: 10

Matt Dunne (D): 29
Brian Dubie (R): 51
Other: 6
Undecided: 14

Susan Bartlett (D): 26
Brian Dubie (R): 51
Other: 7
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±4.5%)

IA-Sen, IA-Gov: Grassley, Branstad With Big Leads

by: Crisitunity

Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 2:21 AM EST

Roxanne Conlin (D): 36 (31)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 53 (59)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 6 (5)

Bob Krause (D): 33 (26)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 55 (59)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 8 (8)

Tom Fiegen (D): 28 (25)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 56 (61)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 11 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen Reports (2/18, likely voters, 9/22 in parentheses):

Chet Culver (D-inc): 37 (34)
Terry Branstad (R): 53 (54)
Some other: 6 (8)
Not sure: 4 (4)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 40 (39)
Bob van der Plaats (R): 46 (43)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Research 2000 for KCCI-TV (2/15-17, likely voters, 10/12-14 in parentheses):

Roxanne Conlin (D): 35 (39)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 56 (51)
Undecided: 9 (10)
(MoE: ±4%)

Research 2000 for KCCI-TV (2/15-17, likely voters, 10/12-14 in parentheses):

Chet Culver (D-inc): 38 (43)
Terry Branstad (R): 54 (48)
Undecided: 8 (9)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (55)
Bob van der Plaats (R): 38 (33)
Undecided: 21 (12)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 44 (58)
Chris Rants (R): 33 (28)
Undecided: 23 (14)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 48 (NA)
Rod Roberts (R): 26 (NA)
Undecided: 26 (NA)
(MoE: ±4%)

Selzer for Des Moines Register (1/31-2/3, adults, 11/8-11 in parentheses):

Chet Culver (D-inc): 33 (33)
Terry Branstad (R): 53 (57)
Not sure: 9 (8)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 40 (37)
Bob van der Plaats (R): 43 (45)
Not sure: 12 (15)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (42)
Chris Rants (R): 37 (35)
Not sure: 14 (18)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (NA)
Rod Roberts (R): 36 (NA)
Not sure: 15 (NA)
(MoE: ±4%)

A whole lot of Iowa data has found its way across our desk over the last week, none of it terribly good for incumbent Governor Chet Culver or Senate challenger Roxanne Conlin. Or you can look at the bright side: the news is less bad if you look at the Rasmussen and Selzer trendlines. (Research 2000, not so much, but that trendline goes all the way back to October... and the earlier poll was commissioned for Daily Kos rather than KCCI, although that shouldn't affect the toplines.)

In case you were hoping that somehow Chet Culver might wind up facing former Republican state legislative leader Chris Rants, though, don't get your hopes up... Rants dropped out of the race last Friday, probably seeing no path out of the primary that's dominated by Branstad and van der Plaats. As always, desmoinesdem is on the scene, with discussion already underway in two different diaries.

RaceTracker Wiki: IA-Sen | IA-Gov

IA-Gov, IA-Sen: Rasmussen's new poll less bad than I expected

by: desmoinesdem

Mon Feb 22, 2010 at 5:57 PM EST

Given Rasmussen's usual "house effect" favoring Republican candidates, I expected the numbers to be worse for Democrats than other recent Iowa polling. Instead, they were comparable to last week's Research 2000 Iowa poll for KCCI-TV and the Selzer and Co. poll for the Des Moines Register, which was conducted three weeks ago.

Like the other pollsters, Rasmussen found Governor Chet Culver well behind Republican front-runner Terry Branstad. Like Research 2000, Rasmussen found Senator Chuck Grassley above 50 percent against Democratic challengers, but well below Grassley's usual re-election numbers and even below the numbers Rasmussen found for Grassley in late January.

More details are after the jump.