The Florida Division of Elections has released their latest tallies of voter registration by congressional district (as of 7/28), and Democrats are posting some big gains since 2006 in targeted races this fall.
Let's take a look at the numbers in the chart below. In the 2006 column, we have the GOP's voter registration advantage in each district as of October 10th, 2006. In the next column, we have the most recent spread, followed by the net change. In the last column, we've ranked the districts according to the percentage change in the GOP-Dem spread. Take a peek:
District
2006
2008
Change
%age
FL-08
14,388
2,113
12,275
85%
FL-25
21,818
7,857
13,961
64%
FL-18
23,202
8,456
14,746
64%
FL-21
28,146
14,999
13,147
47%
FL-16
31,228
21,201
10,027
32%
FL-15
31,509
22,153
9,356
30%
FL-24
32,310
23,263
9,047
28%
FL-09
33,956
28,614
5,342
16%
FL-13
62,230
55,542
6,688
11%
The ground is shifting quickly in the Orlando-based 8th District, where GOP Rep. Ric Keller could be facing a real battle to hang onto his seat. The next biggest shift is in South Florida, where Democrats have posted huge registration gains in recent months, and where Democrats Annette Taddeo, Raul Martinez, and Joe Garcia are giving Republican Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the Diaz-Balart brothers the fight of their lives.
The biggest black eye for Florida Democrats continues to be the open seat of FL-15, where despite having cut into the GOP's voter registration advantage by over 9000 votes, Democrats were not able to find a top-tier candidate for the race. Democrats held retiring Rep. Dave Weldon to a 56-44 margin with an unknown candidate in 2006, but it appears that our candidate this year won't be much stronger: both Democrats in the race have raised under $40K each.
Still, there's a lot of good news here, and we should see some exciting races in Florida this fall.
In Part I of the August preview, we looked at the 8-5 runoff in Georgia and primaries in Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri, the 8-7 primary in Tennessee, and the 8-12 primary in Colorado.
August 19
WA-03, WA-08: Washington has switched back to a Top 2 primary system, in which candidates of all parties run against each other, and the top two finishers advance to the general election, regardless of party. In the past, the numbers from the all-party primary gave a good indication of the comparative strength of the major party candidates, drawing on a much larger sample than any poll. So all eyes will be on WA-08, where netroots heroine Darcy Burner will be up against Dave Reichert. (There is also at least one other Democrat in the race, Jim Vaughn, running well to Burner's right. He has no money and isn't expected to be a factor.)
Netroots goat Brian Baird also faces some intramural competition in WA-03 from peace activist Cheryl Crist. Baird should be reelected without any trouble, although Crist can't be entirely disregarded, having made some waves at the 3rd District nominating convention (losing to Baird 59 to 24) and holding $8K CoH. The question will be whether those waves amount to more than a ripple in the broader population, or if there's some discontent outside the activist base in this D+0 district.
WY-AL: Democrat Gary Trauner has been running for this R+19 seat for years now, losing by a small margin in 2006 to Barbara Cubin. Ding dong, she's gone, but the question is who the GOP candidate to succeed her will be. A Research 2000 poll from May showed Trauner narrowly beating former Secretary of State Cynthia Lummis. Although she's the best known Republican candidate, she's not a sure thing; rancher Mark Gordon has more cash and released an internal poll showing him beating Lummis. (Trauner vs. Gordon wasn't polled.)
August 26
AK-Sen: As recently as a few days ago, this race wasn't on anyone's mind. Then, things really took off: first, previously-unknown beardo Vic Vickers announced he'd be dropping $410,000 of his own money into the race. The following day, incumbent Ted Stevens was indicted for failing to report the value of free house renovations. The question, all of a sudden, was no longer whether Mark Begich could squeak by Stevens in the general, but whether Stevens would even survive the primary. Luckily for Uncle Ted, the anti-corruption vote is split a variety of different ways, including not just Vickers but ex-State Rep. Dave Cuddy, who challenged Stevens in the 1996 primary and can also self-finance. The Rasmussen poll from a few days ago didn't poll the primary matchup, but shows beating any of those three by double-digit margins.
AK-AL: It's unlikely that anything other than a Ted Stevens indictment could overshadow the battle for the at-large House seat in Alaska. Don Young, just as entrenched and corrupt as Stevens, faces a run through a primary gauntlet before even being able to think about the general. He's up against Sean Parnell, the Lieutenant Governor from the 'clean' camp of the Alaska Republicans led by Governor Sarah Palin. Parnell is also being propped up with big media buys from the Club for Growth, but he's suddenly pulled a disappearing act in the face of the mini-scandal surrounding the Governor. Another wrinkle in the race, though, is that State Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux is running too and pouring in a lot of her own money, (probably) unintentionally diluting the anti-Young vote. The most recent polling gives a four-point edge for Parnell, flipped from a three-point edge for Young in May.
So who's going up against Young/Parnell in the general? There's a primary to determine that, too. Former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz is favored, although Native activist Diane Benson, who mounted a surprisingly strong challenge to Young in 2006, is very much in the race.
FL-08: The Democratic primary to take on the underwhelming Ric Keller in this R+3 (and rapidly bluening) district has a crowded field. Businessman Charlie Stuart, who held Keller to a 53-46 result in 2006, is the likeliest winner. Lawyer Alan Grayson, who lost the 2006 primary to Stuart, is running to Stuart's left and has stirred some netroots attention lately with his aggressive advertising, but he may making his move too late. More attorneys (Quoc Ba Van and Mike Smith) round out the field.
Keller can't be considered entirely safe in his own primary, either: he's facing a challenge from local radio host and attorney Todd Long, mostly over his breaking his self-imposed term limits pledge (and probably also his backbench ineffectiveness).
FL-15: Coulda, woulda, shoulda. This R+4 seat, open with the retirement of Dave Weldon, is a prime pick-up target for the Democrats. Unfortunately, DCCC recruitment efforts failed, and the two contenders for the nomination, physician Steve Blythe and commercial pilot/AF reserve officer Paul Rancatore, are both sitting on very little cash (less than $10K each). The primary winner could conceivably move this race back onto the map with an outside cash infusion, but this mostly serves to underscore the main need for Dems in Florida: to elect Dems at the legislative and county levels outside of the major cities in order to build a bench and affect redistricting.
FL-16: Three different Republicans try to out-conservative each other for the right to take on Tim Mahoney, a freshman Blue Dog who lucked into this seat via the Mark Foley scandal and seems to have a somewhat tenuous hold on it despite its R+2 status. Palm Beach Gardens councilman Hal Valeche seems to be occupying the religious right corner, lawyer Tom Rooney (nephew of Steelers owner Dan Rooney) is the money conservative, and State Rep. Gayle Harrell tries to grab a little from each column. The big endorsements seem to be going for Rooney, although I don't know if they're the kind of endorsements you necessarily want (Tom Feeney, '06 substitute loser Joe Negron). Without any polling, though, it's up in the air, and any of the three would be at a disadvantage in the general against Mahoney's huge war chest.
After a quiet July, we're back in the thick of primary season in August.
August 5
GA-Sen (Runoff): When we last checked in, the primary for the Democratic nomination for the Georgia Senate race had gone to a runoff, with none of the five candidates clearing 50% in the July 15 primary. Bush-enabling DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones led the field with 41%; ex-State Rep. Jim Martin came in second with 34%. This makes it look like Jones has the edge, but Martin has a good shot at consolidating the anti-Jones votes that were dispersed among the four white candidates. A late June poll shows Martin with a much better shot at beating Saxby Chambliss in the general than Jones has.
KS-02: Nancy Boyda, who won an upset victory in this R+7 district in 2006, has had to sit and wait while Jim Ryun, the former Representative that she beat, and Lynn Jenkins, the Kansas State Treasurer, beat the snot out of each other in the primary. (Ryun was one of the most conservative members of the House; Jenkins is considered a moderate, at least by Kansas standards.) Ryun and Jenkins have raised a fair amount of money, but have had to spend it on each other, and an internal poll from June gives Boyda a sizable edge over each one. Still, this is a Lean D race and Boyda is widely regarded as one of our most endangered incumbents.
MI-13: Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is in a three-way fight with ex-State Rep. Mary Waters and State Sen. Martha Scott in the Democratic primary. She's a long-time incumbent, but scandal involving her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, is dragging her down, and a poll this week shows her in the lead but only with 33% of the vote.
MO-Gov: Representative Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman are vying for the Republican nomination to succeed Governor Matt Blunt, retiring at the ripe old age of 37 in the face of massive unpopularity. Polling gives the edge to Hulshof in the primary, but either one of them looks like a speed bump in the road for four-term Attorney General Jay Nixon, making this the Dems' likelist state house pick-up.
MO-09: Kenny Hulshof is leaving behind this open seat in his quest to become Governor, giving the Dems a good shot at picking up this R+7 seat (represented by conservative Dem Harold Volkmer before Hulshof). There are competitive primaries in both parties. On the GOP side, most of the action is between State Rep. Bob Onder and State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer. (Although the presence of ex-football star Brock Olivo keeps things lively.) Onder is backed by the Club for Growth, Luetkemeyer is backed by Missouri Right to Life, and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch couldn't bring itself to endorse either of them.
On the Dem side, the leading contenders are State Rep. Judy Baker and former State House Speaker Steve Gaw. Marion County Commissioner Lyndon Bode and ex-State Sen. Ken Jacob are also viable candidates. Baker (from the university town of Columbia) seems about as liberal as is viable in this district, Gaw is a bit to her right (although he did come out strongly against retroactive immunity) while the others are pretty Blue Doggish. Baker, who was running before Hulshof dropped out, leads the money chase. In absence of any polls, though, the race on both sides is a big question mark.
August 7
TN-09: Representative Steve Cohen, who picked up Harold Ford's old Memphis-based seat in 2006, is being challenged by another one of the 2006 contenders, Nikki Tinker. Regrettably, this race has been defined by identity politics: race, gender, and religion, rather than ideology (which is important, as Cohen, the white guy, is quite progressive, while Tinker, the African-American woman, is running to his right). The district's 60% African-American composition gives an advantage to Tinker, but internal polling in May gave a huge edge to Cohen. At D+18, it's safe for the Dems in the general.
TN-01, TN-07: Two members of Tennessee's wingnut patrol face primary challenges from other wingnuts hoping to capitalize on discontent within the wingnut base. In TN-01, freshman Rep. David Davis (who won the last primary with 22% of the vote) faces a rematch with 2006 contender Johnson City mayor Phil Roe. And in TN-07, Marsha Blackburn is up against Shelby County Register of Deeds Tom Leatherwood, who released an internal poll showing him within striking distance. These races don't seem to be about much other than "my turn," and Dems aren't in a place to capitalize in these deep-red districts (R+14 and R+12), but they're worth keeping an eye on.
August 12
CO-02: In this safe Dem (D+8) district based in Boulder, there's a heated race to replace soon-to-be-Senator Mark Udall. State Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Board of Education chairman and Internet entrepreneur Jared Polis, and Colorado Conservation Trust executive director Will Shafroth are all strong candidates. Conventional wisdom seems to mostly focus on Fitz-Gerald and the self-funding Polis, but Shafroth has picked up the major newspaper endorsements. Polis may be a smidge to the left of the other candidates (he's openly gay and a Responsible Plan endorser).
CO-05: Doug Lamborn is another freshman wingnut who ruffled a lot of feathers in his first election (to the extent that his predecessor, Joel Hefley, refused to endorse him). He faces off against two of his 2006 challengers, former Hefley aide Jeff Crank and ex-AF Maj. Gen. Bentley Rayburn. Crank and Rayburn originally entered into a gentlemen's agreement where one would drop out based on polling to avoid splitting the anti-Lamborn vote, but that agreement collapsed, leaving Crank and Rayburn attacking each other instead. It's probably all for naught anyway, as their joint internal poll gives a big edge to Lamborn. Whoever wins has a big edge against Dem Hal Bidlack in this R+16 district.
CO-06: There's a crowded field of Republicans trying to pick up where the retiring Tom Tancredo leaves off. Mike Coffman, the Colorado Secretary of State, seems to be slight front runner against businessman (and son of long-ago Senator Bill Armstrong) Wil Armstrong, according to Armstrong's internal polling. Armstrong, despite not having held office, boasts some key endorsements, including retiring Sen. Wayne Allard and Mitt Romney. Two state senators, Ted Harvey and Steve Ward, are also vying for the seat. Local activist Steve Collins will represent the Dems in the general in this R+10 district.
Look for the 8-19 primaries in Washington and Wyoming, and the 8-26 primaries in Alaska and Florida, in Part II.
FL-10: Crumb-bum Bill Young qualified for another term in this tossup district. Three Democrats have filed: Ron Paul aficionado Samm Simpson, '06 Reform Party gubernatorial candidate Max Linn, and Dunedin Mayor (and former Republican) Bob Hackworth. Linn, who won 2% statewide in 2006, has given or lent his campaign over $150K so far. It's an odd field, to be sure. I still wouldn't put it past Young to make a surprise retirement announcement now that the filing deadline has passed.
FL-13: Surprise, surprise. Everyone's favorite purity troll, two-time three-time congressional loser and ex-Democrat Jan Schneider is back -- this time as an independent. With Democrat Christine Jennings locked in a tight battle with frosh Rep. Vern Buchanan, Schneider's ballot antics have just made this race even tougher. It's clear that Schneider has effectively joined the "Stay in Iraq Forever Party" now.
FL-14: Republican state Sen. Burt Saunders has filed to run against incumbent Rep. Connie Mack in this R+10.5 district as an independent. Despite some vote-splitting by Mack and Saunders, this is still going to be a very uphill climb for Democrat Larry Byrnes.
FL-15: Incumbent GOP Rep. Dave Weldon announced his retirement in this R+4.1 district back in January, and Democrats moved immediately to set up a competitive open seat challenge here. But after Nancy Higgs, a former Brevard Co. commissioner, abruptly exited the race, things looked startlingly quiet here. However, just before the deadline passed, Paul Rancatore, a Lt. Colonel in the Air Force reserves, re-entered the race. Rancatore was recruited to run against Weldon last summer, but dropped out of the race in October, citing his mother's health as his overriding concern. Rancatore will face off with physician Stephen Blythe for the Democratic nomination.
Four Republican candidates have filed to run, but the party establishment appears to have closed ranks around state Sen. Bill Posey, who is currently sitting on more than $200K cash-on-hand.
Rep. Dave Weldon, of "Keep Terry Schiavo alive at any cost" fame, has joined the rats deserting the sinking ship. Has anyone heard who the Dems have to contest this race?
Rep. Dave Weldon (R-Fla.) announced Friday that he will retire from Congress at the end of this session, citing a desire to return to his medical practice.
...
Weldon, 54, is a seven-term lawmaker who sits on the House Appropriations Committee.
...
President Bush won Weldon's district in 2004 with 57 percent of the vote, compared to 43 percent for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.).
P.S. (David): Dan Maffei added to DCCC's Red-to-Blue list. I'm very glad to see this.
Notable User Diaries
We forgot to do this last week, so here are two weeks' worth of great diaries:
Glacial Erratic updates us on an Iraq war vet, Bill Cahir, who has filed for the open-seat race in PA-05.
Meanwhile, robert.harding keeps us in the loop on the latest with candidate Jon Powers, running against crumb-bum Tom Reynolds up in NY-26.
Down South, skywrnchsr509 surveys the field in Mississippi, where the filing deadline has recently pass and where both GOP-held House seats are now open.
RBH explores what might happen if MO-09 opens up, should GOP Rep. Kenny Huslhof run for governor.
Sean takes a look at KY-03, where there's talk of GOP failure Anne Northup trying to revive from the dead after losing two elections in two years.
The redoubtable Benawu provides a new update on the House race filing situation.
And last but certainly not least, Dean Barker, a great friend of SSP's, tell us about the new wingnut challenger who has emerged to take on Paul Hodes in NH-02 - and utterly eviscerates her in the process.
Considering that it's a state that Gore won (in my book), and that John "The Haunted Tree" Kerry lost by 5 points, Florida's lopsided congressional delegation of 16 Republicans and 9 Democrats sticks out like a sore thumb on the U.S. electoral map. (Of course, it was even worse before the victories of Tim Mahoney in FL-16 and Ron Klein in FL-22 last year, at a brutal margin of 18R-7D.) Chalk it up to tenaciously shrewd gerrymandering by the Florida state legislature. Five of Florida's House Democrats are packed in districts that delivered over 65% of their votes to Kerry in 2004, one (FL-11) gave Kerry 58%, one is in marginally Democratic turf (Klein), and two Blue Doggies hold districts that lean GOP on the Presidential level as of late (Allen Boyd and Mahoney, whose districts both delivered 54% their vote to Bush in 2004). Florida's Congressional Republicans, on the other hand, have set up shop in a plethora of districts specially created for them--areas that Bush won by margins between 10 and 20 points (of which there are 11).
But as Democrats have proven themselves more adept at holding red turf than Republicans have been at retaining seats in blue districts (Democrats currently hold 62 House districts that Bush won in 2004, while Republicans hold a scant eight that voted for Kerry), so too has their zeal for stepping up the pressure against incumbents in Republican-leading districts. According to the AP, DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has lined up five Republican seats for aggressive challenges in 2008:
For Democrats, the targets are Reps. Vern Buchanan, Ric Keller, Dave Weldon, Tom Feeney and C.W. "Bill" Young.
Here's the rationale for each:
- Buchanan barely won his District 13 seat in the Sarasota area after spending more than $5 million of his own money on the race. He won by 369 votes. His opponent, Christine Jennings, believes touch-screen voting machines lost thousands of ballots and that she would have won if all votes had been counted.
- Keller promised to leave office after eight years, then decided after the last election to break his vow. He'll have to use resources in a primary before facing a Democratic opponent. Democrats see signs the District 8 seat that includes the Orlando area could favor one of their candidates, and they'll make a case that Keller's voting record doesn't reflect the interests of his constituents.
- Weldon underperformed at the polls last year when he was re-elected in District 15, which represents the Atlantic coast from Vero Beach north to Cape Canaveral. He was re-elected with 56 percent of the vote, but against a weak Democratic candidate who spent far less money. A stronger, better financed candidate could be a challenge.
- Feeney's District 24, which stretches from the area north and east of Orlando to Brevard and Volusia counties' coastline, would normally be considered safely his. But Feeney's golf trip to Scotland with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff could taint the congressman as Democrats continue to make ethics an issue in 2008.
- Young's District 10 seat, which represents Pinellas County, is slightly Republican, but trends show the large independent voting bloc favors Democratic candidates. Young also hasn't been seriously tested in years.
Democrats have already lined up a few ambitious challengers for these districts. Keller, who won re-election by an underwhelming 53-46 margin against Democrat Charlie Stuart (a DCCC pick whose ability to compete monetarily in the general election was hampered by a competitive primary), will square off either with prosecutor Mike Smith or Sierra Club activist Corbett Kroehler. But first Keller (who's breaking his term limit pledge by running again), will have to get through a primary with conservative radio host and attorney Todd Long. Long caught Keller somewhat off-guard during the first quarter, where he outraised the incumbent by a $40k to $27k margin.
In FL-15, Democrats have recruited Paul Rancatore, a Lt. Col. in the Air Force Reserves and the current "Director for Commercialization of Human Space Flight in the National Security and Space Office" at the Pentagon (that's a mouthful). In FL-13, Christine Jennings never ended her campaign against Vern Buchanan, of course, and she's been raising money at a fast clip to pay for her legal expenses. Despite her narrow "loss" last year, her race will be as tough to win as the rest of these, given some of Buchanan's cautious votes in the House.
But it's perhaps Florida's 10th district that could be the most exciting of the five. Unlike the rest of Florida's Republican delegation, Bill Young holds a true toss-up seat, with a PVI of D+1.1. Gore won this area by two points, and Kerry lost it by the same margin. On paper, Young would appear formidable: he's a 36-year incumbent, and he hasn't won a re-election with less than 65% of the vote in ages. But on the other hand: Democrats haven't really tested his hand. And given his totally irresponsible handling of the Walter Reed scandal, there's clearly some rust to be punctured here. Democrats have yet to line up a strong challenger to either him or the Abramoff-loving Tom Feeney (FL-24), and these will be major tests of Van Hollen's recruiting prowess.
One final note about the article:
Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, expressed confidence that the party wouldn't repeat its showing in 2006. He said Mahoney never would have won if it hadn't been for Foley's scandal and that Republicans perform better in Florida during presidential elections.
"All these districts will perform more like they normally do in '08 than they did in '06. That's what presidential elections do. The Democrats had their best shot at a lot of these folks in 2006 and either didn't make it or didn't pull the trigger. I don't think they'll get a second opportunity," Cole said. "We're back to normal politics."
With Iraq spiraling out of control, it'll never be "normal politics", Tom. You should be ashamed of yourself.
Congresswoman Karen Thurman, Chair of the Florida Democratic Party (FDP), titled a recent email "The Road to the Presidency Runs Through Central Florida". Like most missives from a political party it was soliciting funds (which is to be expected). This one was for the Democratic challenger in the special election for a central Florida State House seat.
But, the email's title spoke to me, because I've been thinking along the same lines recently. Let me explain.
