Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money. Here are the January fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (December numbers are here):
Heavy spending by many of the committees leaves both sides with lighter wallets as of December 31st, but moreso for Democrats than Republicans. The DNC gets whooped yet again, and even the NRSC edges the DSCC. All three Dem committees paid down some debt, but the NRCC managed to wipe out all of the $2 million it owed. Feisty creditors, or expectations that good times are about to roll?
We've added a new column to the chart, "CoH Change." This just shows how much each committee's cash-on-hand moved from the prior month, whether positive or negative. As you can see, the RNC spent a ton.
It's not yet known how much the DNC spent last month (UPDATE: Now it is - see chart), but it had to have been a hefty amount; note that, despite their strong $11.5M month, the committee's cash-on-hand actually dipped by about $2.5M over September, and that their corresponding debt was only lowered by about $600K. (UPDATE: Here's something I forgot to take note of: this is the first time, all year, that the DNC has had more cash-on-hand than the RNC. Nice.)
As for the NRCC, fundraising continues to be their weak link. Despite having the wind at their backs in terms of the national climate, the committee only has $4M in the bank. Compare that to money the DCCC had in their coffers in November 2005 ($10.7M) and November 2007 ($29M). House Republicans who aspire to take back the Speaker's gavel next year have reason to be concerned with such a sluggish pace.
• CT-Sen: Rumors are popping up that ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, still the GOP Senate primary's frontrunner by most people's estimation but financially outgunned on a variety of different fronts, may switch to the now-open gubernatorial race. Simmons, however, says his plans are "unchanged," and touts his foreign policy background, saying that's much more useful in the Senate. Meanwhile, an interesting CQ piece looks at pro wrestling svengali Linda McMahon's role in the race, and wonders whether her vast fortunes will really help her that much in a state where a convention attended by party insiders (where Simmons would be favored) is decisive in shaping the field. (Although even if she doesn't win the convention outright or meet the 15% threshold for getting on the ballot, she can still get on the ballot by collecting enough signatures -- certainly an expensive process, but one she could pay for with whatever change she finds under her couch cushions.)
• FL-Sen: Here's about as close as you can get to a Jeb Bush endorsement without his lips actually moving. Bush's sons, Jeb Bush Jr. and George P. Bush, are headlining a Marco Rubio fundraiser in mid-December.
• CT-Gov: Ned Lamont is already staffing up, and a familiar face is going to be one of his key advisors: Howard Wolfson. Wolfson was adviser to Lamont in 2006, but is better known for his lead role in Hillary Clinton's campaign last year, as well as Michael Bloomberg's campaign this year.
• MN-Gov: Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak ran into a snafu with his campaign still on the launching pad, as the state's campaign finance board ruled that he spent money on his campaign before he'd filed the campaign paperwork. Rybak paid for a message-testing poll, although it didn't directly ask questions about the governor's race. If you want to see the whole polling memo (not something you usually get to see with internal polls), check it out.
• WI-Gov: Politics abhors a vacuum, and Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett is acting quickly to fill the vacuum that has formed on the Democratic side of the gubernatorial race. He says he'll make a decision "one way or the other" by the week's end.
• CO-04: Although state Rep. Cory Gardner is clearly the NRCC's favorite in the Republican field, that didn't deter former Ft. Collins city councilor Diggs Brown, who will be announcing his candidacy on Saturday. He had been considered a likely candidate all year, but was on a year-long Army deployment and unable to announce until now. Univ. of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero rounds out the trio of GOPers seeking to take on first-term Dem Rep. Betsy Markey.
• FL-13: James Golden, an African-American minister, attorney and former Bradenton city councilor, launched his campaign last week against Rep. Vern Buchanan. Golden will face an uphill fight against the self-funding Buchanan -- unless Buchanan, facing ongoing scrutiny over mysterious campaign finance machinations, goes down in a legal implosion.
• ID-01: This may be a surprise, or may not -- state House majority leader Ken Roberts withdrew from the GOP primary race to take on freshman Dem Rep. Walt Minnick. Roberts cited health reasons. Roberts initially would have seemed to have a leg up based on name recognition, but veteran and former McCain campaign official Vaughn Ward seemed to be capturing most of the buzz, including a good fundraising start and NRCC touting.
• IN-03: Democrats have taken notice in the last few cycles of Rep. Mark Souder's decidedly lackadaisical approach to re-election in this dark-red district, but now someone from the teabaggy right is taking notice too, and launching a primary campaign. Republican Attorney Phil Troyer (a former staffer to Dick Lugar and Dan Coats) announced his campaign today. (This seems less like an ideological challenge, as Souder is down-the-line conservative, as just opportunistic, taking advantage of his sloth.) Tom Hayhurst, who narrowly lost in 2006, is on track to the Democratic nod again.
• MN-03: Add a second Democratic challenger to the list in the 3rd: Minnesota PTA president, and executive director of the Minnesota Optometrists Association, Jim Meffert filed to run. He joins psychiatrist Maureen Hackett; they may still both be joined by state Sen. Teri Bonoff, although Meffert says that Bonoff has hinted to him that she's likely to take a pass.
• NJ-03: Best wishes to state Sen. Diane Allen, who is entering treatment for an aggressive form of cancer. The moderate Allen, who lost the 2002 Senate primary and was short-listed for Lt. Governor this year, had been considered a possible candidate against Rep. John Adler in the 3rd.
• NV-02: We've got another Democrat lined up to go against Rep. Dean Heller in the 2nd (after Cindy Trigg dropped out several months ago), and he has a strong resume. Jack Schofield is a member of the state's Board of Regents, and is a former state Senator. Unfortunately, he may not be running the most vigorous campaign in the world, as he was a state Senator in the 1970s, and is a World War II veteran (do the math).
• NY-23: The Washington Post has a nice, human-level retrospective on Dede Scozzafava's collapse in the special election and the difference in how the GOP and the Dems treated her, leading to her Bill Owens endorsement. Meanwhile, things continue to play out, as Scozzafava either stepped down from or was stripped of her leadership role in the Assembly Republicans, depending on who you believe. Start counting down to her party switch (not that the Assembly Dems need the help, what with their 109-41 margin).
• OH-02: What's with all these former Apprentice contestants thinking that's somehow a stepping stone to political office? Surya Yalimanchili is now planning to run as an independent in the 2nd, currently held by GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt. He's sounding centrist notes so far rather than sounding teabaggy, though, so he may not help the Dems too much by siphoning off far-right Republican votes.
• PA-07: One more Democrat is getting into the open seat field in the 7th, although it's unclear whether she'll get much traction against state Rep. Bryan Lentz. Environmental lawyer Gail Conner, an Obama convention delegate last year, threw her hat into the ring.
• PA-11: Third time's the charm? It looks like Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta will give crusty Dem incumbent Paul Kanjorski another challenge next year. Barletta fell just a few points shy of knocking off Kanjorski last year, prompting Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O'Brien to enter the Democratic primary for the seat. With pressure from both sides, one has to wonder if Kanjo will hit the eject button. (J)
• PA-17: Here's an example of how voting against health care reform does Blue Dogs a fat lot of good: Rep. Tim Holden got about two days of peace before a Republican state Senator started making noises about a campaign against him anyway. Holden has had little in the way of opposition recently, but now he may face David Argall, who represents Holden's coal-country turf of Schuylkill County. Relatedly, over in Ohio's 16th, a Cleveland Plain Dealer profile of fellow anti-HCR vote John Boccieri shows how he managed to win over exactly no Republicans while ticking off his base.
• PA-19: With Republican Rep. Todd Platts looking to bail on the House and head over to the GAO, candidates are already scoping out the potential special election. Although it's a dark-red district (R+12), one good-sounding Dem is gearing up: Ryan Sanders, real estate developer, president of the Red Lion Area Business Association, and most usefully, an organizer for the Obama campaign in York County.
• UT-02: More fallout from the health care reform vote: Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson (one of the 'no' votes) may, as a result, be facing a primary challenge from the left from state Sen. Scott McCoy (Utah's only gay state Senator and one of its few liberals). The Salt Lake City-based district is still strongly Republican, although it hasn't presented Matheson with much trouble lately.
• MI-St. Sen.: Here's an interesting look at the fight by Dems to reclaim the state Senate in Michigan (currently held 22-16 by the GOP, but where the majority of seats are open next year), which would give them the redistricting trifecta. Even if they don't pick it up (or do while losing the gubernatorial race), the state Supreme Court breaks any logjam, making next year's Supreme Court elections paramount too. The article also contains a map of the Dems' preferred redistricting plan, to turf out Rep. Vern Ehlers by creating a Dem-leaning 3rd District linking Grand Rapids and Muskegon.
• NH-St. Sen.: A special election will be happening in New Hampshire, giving the Dems the chance to add to their narrow lead in the state Senate there (they currently have a 14-10 edge). Republican state Sen. Ted Gatsas is poised to resign after having been elected Manchester mayor. Democratic state Rep. Jeff Goley is set to get into the race, though several other state House Dems are looking at it too.
• Mayors: The Seattle mayor's race has finally come to an end, with as late-breaking ballots are going more toward former local Sierra Club leader Mike McGinn. Joe Mallahan conceded after McGinn's lead pushed up to nearly 5,000, for a 51-49 edge.
• Ads: In the wake of this weekend's health care vote, the DNC is planning to target 32 House Republicans in Obama districts who voted 'no.' They aren't planning on using paid media yet, but will use the OFA campaign e-mail lists to organize in those districts. Meanwhile, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee is promising ads against 10 'no' votes, saying it's "payback" time: Barrow, Shuler, Herseth Sandlin, Murphy, Altmire, Nye, Kissell, Adler, Kosmas, and Ross.
• Demographics: If you're like me, you may spend a lot of time wondering how Scandinavian-Americans got so liberal and Dutch-Americans got so conservative. Dreaminonempty takes a look at ancestry and voting patterns in a very interesting diary at Open Left.
It ain't funny money. Here are the September fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (August numbers are here):
Committee
September Receipts
September Spent
Cash-on-Hand
Debt
DCCC
$7,052,003
$3,043,706
$14,746,361
$4,000,000
NRCC
$3,414,949
$3,298,499
$4,316,993
$2,000,000
DSCC
$5,920,930
$2,504,799
$10,310,148
$2,499,500
NRSC
$3,205,680
$3,128,879
$5,182,334
$0
DNC
$8,204,207
$8,422,672
$14,813,393
$5,026,038
RNC
$9,053,101
$11,099,550
$18,924,409
$0
After two months of trailing the NRSC in fundraising, the DSCC stormed back with a big month, putting a lot of distance between them and the GOP in the cash-on-hand pile. Perhaps the best bit of news, though, is that thanks to a strong July, the DNC outraised the RNC in the third quarter - the first time that's happened in a quarter since 2Q 2004. So that you can see these numbers for yourself, below I'm also included a 3Q summary chart, with overall party totals at the bottom.
• AZ-Sen: It's been a rumor all year, but it just won't die: ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth is reportedly still interested in challenging John McCain in the GOP primary next year. McCain already has a primary challenge from the fringey right, in the form of former Minutemen leader Chris Simcox.
• FL-Sen: Although Rep. Corrine Brown doesn't seem to be taking any steps to get into the Dem field, it looks like Rep. Kendrick Meek still may not get the primary all to himself: former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre is signaling his interest in the race. Ferre is 74; he was the first Hispanic (he's Puerto Rican) to be elected Miami mayor. Meanwhile, Meek is the beneficiary of yet another Bill Clinton fundraiser; this is the Big Dog's fourth on behalf of Meek, a prominent Hillary Clinton endorser in 2008. Finally, Karl Rove is weighing in on the Florida senate primary, albeit just with a $1,000 donation and no loud public pronouncement: he's backing Marco Rubio.
• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk says he's raised $1.6 million for the 3rd quarter, leaving him with $2.3 million cash on hand. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias hasn't made any report yet, but ended the 2nd quarter with $1.65 million on hand.
• NV-Sen: The heat is getting turned up on John Ensign; Barbara Boxer confirmed today that the Senate Ethics Committee will be taking up the little matter of getting a lobbying job for cuckolded ex-staffer Doug Hampton and then steering him clients as a parting gift. Meanwhile, the GOP's new candidate in the 2010 Senate race, Sue Lowden, is still clinging to Ensign, standing by earlier pro-Ensign comments at an Elko appearance on Friday, saying that she hopes to have Ensign campaigning on behalf of Republican candidates (including, presumably, herself) next year.
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold seems to be sitting pretty, with high favorables and little in the way of GOP opposition. His likeliest opponent is Madison real estate developer Terrence Wall, but Wisconsin's Blogging Blue makes a nice catch about Wall: he loves doing business in Wisconsin so much that all 16 of his business entities are incorporated in Delaware.
• AZ-Gov: Another minor GOP player is jumping into the gubernatorial primary against appointed incumbent Jan Brewer. Former state GOP chair (during the early 1980s) and former member of the university system Board of Regents John Munger is in the race. He joins Brewer and Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker, with state Treasurer Dean Martin and some other higher-profile figures considering it too.
• CA-Gov: Maybe this explains why alleged Republican Meg Whitman is running for governor and not for senate: turns out she endorsed Barbara Boxer in 2004 as part of Technology Leaders for Boxer, and gave her $4,000. No word yet on whether Whitman actually got around to voting for her, though.
• MN-Gov: A straw poll at the Minnesota GOP convention sees former state House minority leader Marty Seifert in pole position; he pulled in 37% of the vote among nine candidates. Little-known state Rep. Tom Emmer finished second at 23%, and former state Auditor Pat Anderson was third with 14%. Norm Coleman was also seen mingling with convention-goers (he got a few write-in votes although his name wasn't on the ballot); he says he hasn't fully ruled out running, saying he'll make a decision early next year.
• SC-Gov: Republican AG Henry McMaster, who's running to succeed Mark Sanford as governor, has run into his own little ethical snafu. He's having to return $32,500 in illegal contributions that came from five attorneys after he had hired them to work on cases for the state.
• SD-Gov: Republican Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard officially kicked off his campaign for the 2010 gubernatorial race. In an apparently all-Scandinavian-American rumble, he'll face off against state Senate majority leader Dave Knudson in the GOP primary, and the winner will face Democratic state Senate minority leader Scott Heidepriem.
• VA-Gov: The money keeps pouring into the Virginia governor's race. The DNC is throwing another $1 million into Creigh Deeds' kitty. Also, the RGA is going on the air with a huge ad buy in the DC market with an ad featuring a testy post-debate Deeds interview.
• WI-Gov (pdf): The Univ. of Wisconsin and Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll the Wisconsin governor's race, but primary fields only. Unknowns rule the day: on the Dem side, Milwaukee mayor and ex-Rep. Tom Barrett (who hasn't confirmed his interest) beats Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, 38-16. On the GOP side, Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker beats ex-Rep. Mark Neumann 39-14, with 4% to Tim Michels. (Barrett is the best known of all the candidates, with a 36/12 favorable.) Current Gov. Jim Doyle heads out of office in net negative territory, with a 43/52 approval, although that still beats a lot of other governors right now.
• WY-Gov: Most of the major players seem to be standing around and waiting to see whether current Gov. Dave Freudenthal challenges the state's term limit laws in court in order to grab a third term. One Republican isn't waiting though, becoming the first announced big-ticket opponent: rancher Ron Micheli. He was a state Representative for 16 years and state Agriculture Director under Republican Gov. Jim Geringer.
• NV-03: It looks like the GOP may successfully trade up in the 3rd District. With banker John Guedry bailing out of the race for personal reasons, now it looks like they've coaxed former state Sen. Joe Heck out of the gubernatorial primary (where he initially looked like he had a shot at taking out unpopular incumbent Jim Gibbons, but turned into a long shot with the likely inclusion of ex-AG, ex-judge Brian Sandoval in the primary) and into the race against Dem freshman Rep. Dina Titus instead. Heck is still officially mum, but will have an announcement later this week.
• PA-11: Democratic Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O'Brien had been a long-rumored primary challenger to long-time Rep. Paul Kanjorski in the 11th, and he made it official over the weekend. O'Brien is clearly emphasizing what a young go-getter he is (compared with the aging Kanjorski), kicking things off with 30 straight hours of campaigning.) Kanjo remains undeterred though, reiterating that he's running for re-election and looking forward to the debate.
• Generic Ballot: PPP fires up another warning flare about 2010, looking at some of the generic ballot crosstabs. Among voters who don't like either party, they opt for the GOP 50-14. But there's a disparity by party line among unhappy voters. The unhappy Republicans will still vote GOP, 66-18, but the unhappy Democrats say they'll cross over to the GOP, 48-26. On the plus side, there aren't as many unhappy Democrats as there are unhappy Republicans (20% instead of 33%).
• House: Biden Alert! The VP has been working overtime in the last month appearing at fundraisers for vulnerable House members, helping nearly a dozen members haul more than a collective $1 million. He's also been assisting with recruiting efforts, most notably with the successful score of Bethlehem mayor John Callahan in PA-15.
For the second month the NRSC has outraised the DSCC, putting them just a million bucks behind for the year. By way of comparison, we were $3 mil ahead in 2005 and a whopping $16 mil ahead in 2007. But perhaps most disappointing to me is the DNC's continual lag behind the RNC. This long-standing state of affairs was supposed to change with a Democratic president in the White House, but the GOP's national committee has outraised ours, $60 mil to $53 mil year-to-date. Again by way of comparison, at this point in 2005, when a Republican lived at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the GOP was destroying us $76 mil to $38 mil.
• CO-Sen: The Denver Post does some interesting digging into how former House speaker Andrew Romanoff wound up in the Senate Democratic primary against Michael Bennet after all. Governor Bill Ritter tried to give the Lt. Gov. spot to Romanoff after Barbara O'Brien left the position in January, but the deal collapsed, leaving Romanoff to decide on the primary instead this summer.
• IL-Sen: Chicago's city treasurer, Stephanie Neely, has decided not to run in the Senate primary. However, Chicago's inspector general David Hoffman seems to be taking tangible steps to get into the race, saying he'll make a formal announcement after Labor Day.
• MA-Sen: Rep. Stephen Lynch picked up filing papers for the Senate special election in Massachusetts, indicating he's likely to soon join Martha Coakley. Lynch, who represents a heavily blue-collar Catholic district based in south Boston, would likely be the only anti-abortion Democratic in the race, but he has strong ties with organized labor.
• MD-Gov: While most of the question marks surrounding the Maryland governor's race involve whether or not GOP ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich wants a rematch with current Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley, now some are wondering if O'Malley will face a primary challenge from former Prince George's Co. Executive Wayne Curry. Speculation centers on how O'Malley has nailed down endorsements from Dems all over the state but is missing some key endorsements from PG County.
• NJ-Gov: Wow, what is it with this guy? So it turns out that back in 2002, Chris Christie turned his sail barge the wrong way down a one-way street, struck a motorcyclist (who was taken to the hospital)... and didn't get a ticket. No claims about a tow-truck driver recognizing Christie this time - here, we know he identified himself to the officer on the scene. When he was asked if Christie's title affected the officer's decision not to issue a summons, the police director said "I don't think I want to make that kind of deduction, but I think the facts speak for themselves." Ouch. (D)
• OR-Gov: Lots of movement in the Oregon governor's race now that John Kitzhaber is in. Democratic state Rep. Brian Clem (who had set up an exploratory committee a few months ago) quickly moved to endorse Kitzhaber and not just get out of the way but join Kitz's campaign as a director. Meanwhile, Republican state Senator Jason Atkinson -- who finished third in the GOP primary in 2006 and has "next in line" status -- informally told his hometown paper, the Medford Mail-Tribune, that "he's running," although the formal announcement won't happen for a while. Finally, it sounds like Rep. Peter DeFazio is making a move to... do something. He's still considering the race, but will make a decision "around Labor Day," which is soon.
• SC-Gov: Here's a tea leaf that Jim Rex, who'd be the Dems's strongest candidate, seems likely to get in the gubernatorial race. In the midst of touring the state and raising money, he says he won't run for another term as Superintendent of Education.
• AZ-01: It sounds like the GOP has a candidate lined up in the 1st, to against freshman Dem Ann Kirkpatrick, who's a definite improvement over the sad Sydney Hay from last time. Former state Senate majority leader Russell "Rusty" Bowers (also a former state Rep., and now a sand-and-gravel industry lobbyist) seems like he's set to run.
• IN-08: The NRCC, however, wasn't able to pin down a challenger to Brad Ellsworth in the 8th. Former Vandenburgh County Commissioner and county assessor Cheryl Musgrave decided not to run against Ellsworth, although she is considering a state House run instead against incumbent Dem Gail Riecken.
• PA-03: The GOP had been previously struggling to find anyone at all to go against freshman Dem Kathy Dahlkemper, but now they've landed someone fairly impressive sounding. John Onorato (not to be confused with Dem gubernatorial candidate Dan Onorato) is the former Erie County Solicitor (analogous to DA in most states), giving him a large constituency to build on.
• SD-AL: State Rep. Shantel Krebs of Sioux Falls said that she's considering challenging Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in 2010. Krebs would likely need to get past Chris Nelson, the state's two-term Secretary of State, in the GOP primary though; he's also in the "considering" phase. (Remember that South Dakota House districts are teeny constituencies, with only 22,000 residents each.)
• NYC-Mayor: One more SurveyUSA poll of the Dem primary in the Big Apple. William Thompson and Mark Green have pretty clear paths in the Mayor and Public Advocate primaries (Thompson leads Tony Avella 52-14), but check out the Comptroller's race. It's a three-way slugfest between three city councilors: 25% for John Liu, 24% for Melinda Katz, and 21% for David Yassky.
• Ads: The DNC, via Organizing for America, is running cable TV spots for four potentially vulnerable House Dems, thanking them for their pro-stimulus votes: Ben Chandler, Martin Heinrich, Travis Childers, and Zack Space.
• Polling: The Masters of the Crosstabs were all on hand to do a panel on polling at Netroots Nation last month: Charlie Cook, Mark Blumenthal, Nate Silver, and Charles Franklin, moderated by Greg Dworkin (aka DemFromCT). At the link, you'll find a video of their session. (Charlie gives a nice shout-out to SSP at about 7:40, and again at 80:20, where he talks about the "growing sophistication of the blogosphere.") (D)
• Humor: Autotune the News 8 is out, in case you've ever wanted Joe Biden to sing you a slow jam.
• FL-Sen: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen says she won't endorse in the GOP Senate primary or in the general election, out of deference to Kendrick Meek. Says IRL: "Kendrick was a gentleman and I'm a lady back to him," because he didn't lift a finger to help Annette Taddeo last year, "despite all the nasty bloggers egging him on." Next time, we'll just have to egg harder. (D)
Meanwhile, in the contest purely in Charlie Crist's mind over who to appoint to replace Mel Martinez, Crist will reportedly name someone by week's end from his not-so-short list of eight or so names.
• OR-Sen: John Frohnmayer, the former head of the National Endowment for the Arts under Bush I, was reportedly considering a bid for the Senate against Ron Wyden, but has now decided against it. (You may remember Frohnmayer had tried running as an Indie in the 2006 Smith/Merkley Senate race, but decided against that too.) Interestingly, the story makes it completely unclear whether he was planning to run as a Democrat or an Independent (probably not as a Republican, despite that he's from one of the state's brand-name GOP families, considering that the once-dominant moderates have been routed from the state party), but it sounded like he'd be going after the usually-liberal Wyden from the left, as he'd been reaching out to Democratic activists upset over Wyden's foot-dragging on health care reform. No GOPer has stepped forward to take on Wyden from the right.
• NJ-Gov: One more wheel popped off the suddenly overloaded Chris Christie bus: the woman who allegedly received the undisclosed loan from Christie while working for him has resigned. Michele Brown was the acting first assistant U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, but she quit yesterday, saying she didn't want to be a distraction for the campaign.
• NY-Gov: Politico's Alex Isenstadt offers a rebuttal to the NYT's speculations that Rudy Giuliani is prepping for a gubernatorial run. Close associates say that while he's not saying no, he isn't fundraising either, and that his bids for attention may have more to do with paying down campaign debts from his epic presidential fail.
• SC-Gov: Two Republican state Reps, Nathan Ballentine (known as a Mark Sanford ally) and Gerry Simrill met privately with Sanford to let him know that if he doesn't step down, the GOP-held legislature will impeach him. (Sanford told them he's staying.) Also, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer publicly called for Sanford to resign today (and, by the way, give him his job). Bauer said he'd drop his 2010 gubernatorial bid if he were to become governor, though.
• TX-Gov: It looks like there'll be an alternative to Bush-backer Tom Schieffer and weirdo self-promoter Kinky Friedman in the Democratic primary after all: Hank Gilbert, a cattle rancher who lost the 2006 Agriculture Commissioner race (although he did do the best of any Dem statewide candidate that year), says he'll run. Burnt Orange Report sounds very pleased. Meanwhile, Kay Bailey Hutchison faced down a truckload of pigs brought to one of her rallies by snout-wearing pro-Rick Perry, anti-pork activists. KBH is also looking to sell her mansion in McLean, Virginia, a tea leaf that a) she's serious about bailing out of the Senate and b) she needs money.
• WI-Gov: There's already a Republican internal poll from the Scott Walker camp done by the Tarrance Group, reflecting the new post-Jim Doyle configuration of the Wisconsin governor's race. As one might expect from a Walker poll, he leads all comers, although the Milwaukee Co. Exec barely beats Milwaukee mayor and ex-Rep. Tom Barrett, 44-43. Walker posts bigger numbers over Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, 48-40 and Rep. Ron Kind, 49-39, and an even-bigger number against GOP primary rival ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, 57-21. Barrett leads a Dem primary over Lawton and Kind, 39-25-19 (only Lawton has committed to the race so far, though).
• NYC-Mayor: The mayor's race in New York seems to be in a holding pattern, with I/R incumbent Michael Bloomberg beating Democratic Comptroller William Thompson, 50-35, not much change from last month's 47-37 spread. Thompson leads city councilor Tony Avella 45-10 in the primary. Further down the ballot, it looks like Air America head Mark Green is poised for a comeback as Public Advocate (a job he held 1994-2001), with 38% in a 4-way Dem primary field.
• Ads: The DNC has launched a series of radio ads providing cover for 13 potentially vulnerable Dems, regarding their earlier stimulus and SCHIP votes: Berry, Himes, Donnelly, Kissell, Teague, Rodriguez, Perriello, Ross, Hill, Etheridge, Brad Miller, Pat Murphy, and Inslee. (OK, those last four don't seem vulnerable at all, but whatever.) Also, a coalition of MoveOn, Americans United for Change, the Sierra Club, and the League of Conservation Voters launched TV spots against 5 Republicans over cap-and-trade: McCotter, Rehberg, Blunt, Wolf, and Cantor... and print ads against 2 Dems who also were 'no' votes: Jason Altmire in the Pittsburgh suburbs and Ann Kirkpatrick in rural Arizona.
• NV-Sen: Looks like John Ensign might be starting to get the Jim Bunning treatment from GOP Senate leadership even though it's three years till he's up in 2012. Today John Cornyn made a point of refusing to endorse Ensign when asked, instead retreating to boilerplate about giving him the time and space to work out his issues. This follows revelations earlier this week from the Las Vegas Sun detailing how Ensign's staff, contrary to earlier claims, knew about Ensign's affair almost one year before it became public.
• NH-Sen: As the GOP establishment annointment of Kelly Ayotte as Senate candidate continues apace, she's nailed down former Gov. Steve Merrill (who had been touted as a possible candidate himself) as her campaign co-chair.
• NC-Sen: Polls have shown that voters are pretty lukewarm about Richard Burr, and now comments from Burr suggest that he's pretty lukewarm about being Senator, too. By way of decrying the increased partisanship on the Hill (by which he no doubt means being in the minority), he says "When people ask me if I enjoy what I'm doing, now is the time that I try not to answer the question."
• OH-Gov: While the fundraising numbers in the Ohio Secretary of State's race that we talked about yesterday are a cause for concern, Dems are doing well in the two other races that will determine control of the legislative reapportionment board. Not just the Governor's race, where incumbent Ted Strickland is far outpacing Republican ex-Rep. John Kasich ($2.5 million to $516K), but also Hamilton Co. Commissioner David Pepper, who is challenging incumbent Republican Auditor Mary Taylor, and leading the money chase $317K to $107K. Cumulatively, Democrats in the state House have also more than doubled up on their Republican colleagues.
• PA-07: Now that Joe Sestak has made it official that he's running for Senate, that puts the wheels in motion in the 7th. Democratic State Rep. Bryan Lentz says he'll make a formal announcement of his candidacy in the next month. Lentz doesn't seem like he'll have the Dem field to himself, though; state Rep. Greg Vitali says he's also considering the race. On the GOP side, businessman Steven Welch is staffing up for his campaign; unless Pat Meehan does an about-face and drops down from the gubernatorial race, Welch seems likely to have the field to himself.
• Ads: Prepare to watch and hear nothing but ads about health care reform for the next month. The Club for Growth is running ads playing up the "deather" line of argument, targeting Democratic congressional delegations in Nevada, Arkansas, Colorado, and North Dakota. On the Dem side, the DNC is running health care radio ads on behalf of 19 House members (Driehaus, Dahlkemper, Kirkpatrick, Giffords, McNerney, Perlmutter, Kosmas, Grayson, Walz, Heinrich, Titus, Maffei, Massa, Kilroy, Boccieri, Space, Wilson, Nye, and Kagen).
• DE-St. Sen.: A Republican, state Rep. Joe Booth, won a vacant Senate seat in a special election that had been held by the Democrats for decades (of course, it was always the same Democrat: state Senate President Pro Tem Thurman Adams recently passed away, after holding the seat for 37 years). Booth defeated Adams' daughter, Polly Adams Mervine, who'd never run for office before. The victory in this rural seat in Republican-leaning Sussex County brings the GOP total in the state Senate up to a whopping 6 (Dems hold 15 seats). One silver lining is that Democrats now have a shot at picking up Booth's House seat, where their margin is narrower and could use some padding (they control the state House for the first time in ages, by a 24-16 margin with the 1 vacancy).
• FL-St. Sen.: Remember Joe Negron, the Republican state Rep. who lost to slimy Tim Mahoney in the 2006 FL-16 election (largely due to the fact that his name was listed as "Mark Foley" on the ballot)? Well, he's back in the legislature, this time as a Senator, winning a special election yesterday to take over from Republican Ken Pruitt, who's stepping down from the solidly Republican seat for health reasons.
A pretty good month for the DSCC and the DCCC, who now both have more cash in the bank than they owe to creditors for the first time since the election. Keep in mind, though, that these nums are a bit pumped up thanks to a modest fundraiser hosted by Barack Obama last month which took in $3 million for the House and Senate committees.
Note that the DNC figure includes a $2 million transfer from the Obama campaign, which makes their March intake not so impressive compared to the RNC. (Say what you will about Michael Steele, but fundraising does not seem to be suffering too badly under his watch.) Spending tallies for the two Senate committees are also currently unavailable.
Once again the story continues to be the rather portly levels of debt held by the Dem House and Senate committees, which in aggregate are just over three times as large as the combined NRCC/NRSC debts. But the Democratic committees should be able to balance the books sooner rather than later -- especially with a major June fundraiser headlined by President Obama on the horizon.
• DNC/RNC: The RNC seems to win the fundraising month for March, in a bit of a split decision. The DNC reported $7.57 million in contributions last month, while the RNC pulled in $6.7 million. However, $2 million of those Democratic dollars were transferred from the Obama campaign. More ominously, the RNC is sitting on $23.9 million cash on hand and no debt, while the DNC has $9.7 million cash on hand and $6.9 million in debt.
• IL-Sen: Hot on the heels of his $845 fundraising quarter, the new Rasmussen poll shows Roland Burris might want to make some post-2010 plans. 4% of respondents say they will "definitely" vote for him and 54% will vote against, with 39% saying it depends on who's running. 62% think he should resign, with 24% believing he should remain in the Senate. (The poll doesn't test Burris in any head-to-heads.) The poll also finds Jesse Jackson Jr. looking badly tarnished in the wake of the Blagojevich implosion: his favorables are now 32-63. One other tidbit that makes Lisa Madigan's job harder if she runs for IL-Gov: Pat Quinn's job approval is a surprisingly high 61-37.
• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln has drawn at least one legitimate challenger for 2010: state senate minority leader Kim Hendren has announced his candidacy. Hendren has self-funding abilities and a strong base in northwest Arkansas (the traditionally Republican part of the state), which at least gives him a leg up in the primary. Hendren, however, is old (71)... old enough that one claim to fame is that he lost a race to Bill Clinton (the 1982 gubernatorial primary, when Hendren was still a Democrat)... and promising to serve only one term. Lincoln defeated state senators in both her 1998 and 2004 bids.
• NV-Sen, NV-02: GOP Rep. Dean Heller says that "his plan today" is to run for re-election, but he's also refusing to rule out a run against Handsome Harry Reid. (J)
• IL-14: After getting their pants kicked in by Democrat Bill Foster in two consecutive elections, the Illinois GOP may turn to the Name You Know in 2010 -- Dennis Hastert's son, Ethan. 31 year-old Ethan Hastert, a Chicagoland attorney, says that he's "exploring" a run for his dad's old seat, and is already polling his name against Foster in a trial poll. Ethan's previous claim to fame: serving as assistant to Lewis "Scooter" Libby. (J)
• FL-05: Jim Piccillo will be challenging Ginny Brown-Waite in this light-red district. Piccillo has an interesting backstory: no previous political experience, and was a Republican until last year when he was driven away by the tenor of the campaign, but the recipient of a lot of media exposure after being profiled by the NYT in a feature on Florida Republicans abandoning the party. At least he sounds better than this guy.
• Polltopia: Our friends at Public Policy Polling are once again letting readers decide which Senate race they'll poll next. The choices: Georgia, Illinois, and Oklahoma. Get busy voting and then tell us which race you picked in the comments. (J)
From December 2007 to March 2008, I wrote various drafts of a proposal on how our political parties -- starting in 2012 -- might adopt primary election procedures that would better serve our country in selecting presidential candidates. I originally drafted a hypothetical calendar for 2008, based on general election results from 2004. Now that we have the results for 2008, I can now propose a calendar specific to 2012.
The system by which our parties choose their presidential candidates has proven itself to be, at best, highly questionable -- at worst, severely flawed.
The primary calendar we need most is one that is built on an orderly and rational plan -- one that is based on mathematics and on recent historical outcomes -- and not on an arbitrary, publicity-driven, system of one-upsmanship. The change I propose would provide for a more effective, equitable process than the one we have now.
The following factors are the key ones to consider:
Margin of Victory
- The state primaries would be placed in order according to the leading candidates' margins of victory in the preceding general election -- with the states registering the closest margins of victory going first.
For example, John McCain won Missouri by 0.1% and Barack Obama won North Carolina by 0.4%; conversely, McCain won Wyoming by 33%, and Obama won Hawaii by 45%. Therefore, the primary calendar I propose would commence with primaries being held in states such as Missouri and North Carolina -- and would close with such states as Wyoming and Hawaii.
- The purpose of ordering the states according to the margin of victory is to help the parties determine which candidates can appeal to those states that have found themselves most recently on the Electoral Divide. A narrow margin in the general election is reflective of an evenly divided electorate. In this scenario, a candidate who appeals to, say, Florida and Montana is more likely to appeal to a greater number of Americans on the whole.
Iowa, New Hampshire, and Fairness
- Iowa and New Hampshire might object to this new system, given their longstanding tradition of being the first states to cast their ballots. However, so long as Iowa and New Hampshire retain their record of being fairly bipartisan states, they'll maintain their position towards the front of the primary schedule.
- Just because a state should have its primary later in the season does not mean that that state will prove invaluable to the process. Indiana and North Carolina weren't held until May 6th, but those two states might have very well decided the fate of the 2008 Democratic nomination.
- This new system allows other states to play a greater role in how the parties select their candidates. For example, Missouri and North Carolina would be two of the states to get the limelight in 2012. Likewise, based on the results to come in November of 2012, a still-different slate of states could have a more significant role come 2016. A rotating system will be healthier and fairer.
Groupings of Five, and Timing & Spacing
- By placing states into groupings of five, no one state will be overly emphasized on any given date.
- Candidates will still need to address the concerns of individual states, whilst having to maintain an overall national platform. For example, a candidate will be less able to campaign against NAFTA in Ohio whilst campaigning for it in Florida.
- Given that each state has its own system for electing its delegates, these groupings of five states will act as an overall balancer. Ideally, caucuses will be done away with altogether by 2012. However -- should that not happen -- states with caucuses, states with open primaries, and states with closed primaries can all coexist within a grouping, therefore no one system will hold too much influence on any given date.
- Racial and geographic diversity in this process has been a great concern for many. The narrowest margins of victory in 2008 were in a wide variety of regions -- the Midwest, the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the South, and the West.
- All parties would have an interest in addressing these narrow-margined states early on. The incumbent will want to win over those states that were most in doubt of him in the previous election, and opposing parties will want to put forth candidates who have the best chance of winning over those very same states.
- Primaries will be held biweekly, giving candidates and the media enough time to process and respond to the outcomes of each wave of primaries.
- Washington DC will be placed in the same grouping as whichever state -- Virginia or Maryland -- is closer to its own margin of victory.
- American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, and Americans Abroad -- not having Electoral votes of their own -- will determine their own primary dates, so long as they occur between the first grouping and the last grouping.
Under these guidelines, the proposed calendar for the 2012 primary season is:
January 2012
Tue, 1/10
Missouri
North Carolina
Indiana
Florida
Montana
Tue, 1/24
Ohio
Georgia
Virginia
Colorado
South Dakota
Tue, 2/7
North Dakota
Arizona
South Carolina
Iowa
New Hampshire
Tue, 2/21
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Texas
Nevada
West Virginia
Tue, 2/26
Mississippi
Wisconsin
New Jersey
New Mexico
Tennessee
Tue, 3/6
Kansas
Nebraska
Oregon
Kentucky
Michigan
Tue, 3/20
Washington
Maine
Louisiana
Arkansas
Alabama
Tue, 4/3
Connecticut
California
Illinois
Delaware
Maryland
Washington DC
It's the third year that Democrats control both chambers of the Iowa legislature as well as the governor's chair, and party leaders want to seize the opportunity to pass some good labor legislation. In 2007, Democrats controlled the Iowa House 53-47 but couldn't find enough votes to pass a "fair share" bill that would have forced individuals represented by unions to stop being "free riders." In 2008, Governor Chet Culver angered labor activists by vetoing a bill that would have expanded collective bargaining rights. That prompted several major labor unions in Iowa to stop giving to Culver's campaign committee.
Although Democrats now have a 56-44 majority in the lower chamber, they were unable to find a 51st vote for the prevailing wage bill during five hours of debate on Friday. Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy now plans to keep the vote open all weekend, sleeping in the chamber, until some Democrat's arm can be twisted on this issue.
Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine will become chairman of the Democratic National Committee later this month, serving as the top political messenger for Barack Obama's administration even while he finishes his final year in the governor's mansion, several sources said.
Kaine, who emerged as one of Obama's vice presidential finalists this summer, will operate from Richmond in a part-time capacity until January 2010, when he will become the full-time DNC chairman. Kaine is constitutionally barred from running for reelection.
Brownsox points out that the current governor of Virginia is going to become chairman of the DNC, while a former DNC chair is trying to become governor of Virginia (Terry McAuliffe, of course).
