SSP Daily Digest: 3/9 (Afternoon Digest)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 4:42 PM EST

Lincoln: I Will Fight Reconciliation as Tool to Achieve Health Insurance Reform

Now:

Asked twice whether she was wavering on her previous statements to vote against a reconciliation bill, Lincoln said: "I'll wait to see what's in it."

Considering she already voted for healthcare reform in the first place, this actually is probably the better move for her, believe it or not. (D)

• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: More evidence that the teabaggers and assorted other movement conservative aren't takin' kindly to outsiders coming in and imposing Jane Norton on them. Norton lost a GOP straw poll to right-wing Weld County DA Ken Buck after a Denver candidate forum sponsored by the Tea Partiers and 9-12ers. Interestingly, no-name Dan Maes also triumphed over ex-Rep. Scott McInnis on the gubernatorial side.

• LA-Sen: Rep. Charlie Melancon is going on the offensive, having a lot of ground to make up against David Vitter if polls are any indication. He's filed an ethics complaint against Vitter for having violated federal law by sending out fundraising appeals on official Senate letterhead.

• NY-Sen-B: Hardcore movement conservative and - get this - former chief economist for Bear Stearns (!!) David Malpass says he's weighing a run against Kirsten Gillibrand, presumably as a Republican. Jonathan Chait hits all the high points as to how badly out-of-touch Malpass is, and Paul Krugman zings him for an especially good bit of moranocity. If I were Gillibrand, I think I'd love to go up against a mouthbreather like this. (D)

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter got a boost from labor, with an endorsement from the United Auto Workers. Also, speaking of Pennsylvania, check out my latest installment at Salon.com, where I used the disparate polling in PA-Sen as a means of introducing the non-SSP-reading masses to the idea of polling likely voters vs. registered voters.

• WA-Sen: It looks like the NRSC hasn't given up on trying to lure Dino Rossi into the Senate race, as Rossi has confirmed having had a conversation with John Cornyn about it. Rossi continues to maintain a "never say never" attitude about it in the face of questions. The NRSC may also have a Plan B if Rossi says no, that's an upgrade from their current top candidate, state Sen. Don Benton. They're also interested in former news anchor Susan Hutchison. Despite presenting a somewhat moderate profile and the advantage of running without an "R" next to her name in the nonpartisan race, she still managed to rack up only 41% while losing November's King County Executive race. (Still, that makes her only a one-time loser, compared with Rossi's two strikes.) Hutchison says that she's undecided, and she'll wait for Rossi's decision to make her own.

• IA-Gov: One other candidate who's not faring so well in the straw poll venue, despite an overwhelming consensus from the political establishment, is ex-Gov. Terry Branstad. He just lost a quick succession of three different county-level straw polls to social conservative Bob Vander Plaats, and these aren't dinky rural counties either. Vander Plaats cleaned up in Woodbury County (his home turf of Sioux City), while earning narrow victories in Story County (Davenport Ames) and Dallas County (Des Moines suburbs).

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo may not be a declared candidate for Governor just yet, but he's certainly fundraising like one. His camp is planning to hold a high-priced fundraiser in DC on March 22nd with some high-powered Democratic money players in attendance. (JL) Some of David Paterson's nosediving approvals may have rubbed off a bit on Cuomo, if Marist's new snap poll (pdf) is any indication: Cuomo's approval is down to a relatively human 54/39. Paterson is at an appalling 19/79, but 68% say he might as well still serve out his term with 28% saying resign. Still trying to find an upgrade from the lackluster campaign of Rick Lazio to go up against Cuomo, the GOP is meeting with conservaDem Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy (who's been mulling a run in the Democratic primary) to try and get him to switch over to the GOP line to run for Governor.

• DE-AL: Republicans may have found an upgrade in the Delaware at-large seat, which has pretty much already slipped out of their grasp but where they can at least force former Democratic Lt. Gov. John Carney to work for it. They're courting philanthropist Michele Rollins, the widow of former Republican Lt. Gov. John Rollins (and a former Miss USA) who has access to her former husband's personal fortune.

• LA-02: Rep. Joe Cao seems to have read yesterday's big expose of BaseConnect (the former BMW Direct) at TPM, and it seems to have been the first time he'd learned that they're up to no good. He just severed all ties with the group, who've been doing his fundraising for the last year (and skimming off almost all his proceeds, which explains his terrible burn rate). Does this mean that no one from the NRCC was giving him any guidance on how to raise funds? It doesn't seem like the kind of scam an incumbent would ordinarily fall for.

• NY-23: Doug Hoffman's made it official - he's going to try to win the Republican, Conservative, and Independence Party nominations, "and unite them, as one team, to defeat the agenda of Nancy Pelosi and Bill Owens." Sounds like someone has seen the Lord of the Rings movies a few times too many. This also seems a wee bit delusional, since of course most of the Independence Party quickly embraced Owens (who seems like a good fit for them) when Dede Scozzafava abandoned the race at the last moment. (D)

• NY-29: Strike two names from the list of potential Democratic candidates for the special election to replace crumb-bum Rep. Eric Massa. Assemblywoman Barbara Lifton has announced that she won't run for the seat, as has Monroe County DA Mike Green. (JL) On the GOP side, state Sen. Cathy Young has also just declined.

• PA-12: Barbara Hafer continues to attack the manner in which former Murtha aide Mark Critz was selected as the Dem nominee for the May special election - and by extention the people behind the process. Several Dems have gone on record expressing their distaste for Hafer's attacks, and state party chair T. J. Rooney thinks they contributed to her being passed over. (D)

• TN-03: Democrats seem to have found a willing candidate, finally, to fill the gap in the open seat in the R+13 3rd (which looked like a promising race while former Insurance Comm. Paula Flowers was in it). Brenda Short decided to take the plunge; she used to be a Hill aide long ago for former Rep. Marilyn Lloyd (whose 1994 retirement turned the seat over to Rep. Zach Wamp, who's finally vacating the seat to run for Governor).

• OR-Treasurer, OR-04: In something of a surprise, Multnomah County Chair Ted Wheeler today got named as interim state Treasurer, in the wake of the unfortunate death of Ben Westlund. Wheeler will still need to run again in a special election to be held as part of the November 2010 ballot; he's confirmed he'll run in that election but will face at least two prominent Dems: retiring state Sen. Rick Metsger (well-known from his time as local sports anchor), who filed yesterday before Wheeler's appointment, and former Treasurer (and 2006 gubernatorial primary contestant) Jim Hill. Adding to the general sense of chaos is that it's the last day of filing in Oregon, meaning now people are piling into Wheeler's vacant seat as well. Finally, it looks like, with Springfield mayor Sid Leiken's departure, OR-04 Rep. Peter DeFazio will merely face Some Dude: home-schooling activist Art Robinson.

• West Virginia: One other state where the filing deadline has passed is West Virginia. Despite the state's red-ward trend (and significant challenges to both its Dem Reps., Alan Mollohan and Nick Rahall), one area where the GOP doesn't look poised to make much of any progress is the state legislature, already thoroughly dominated by Democrats. In fact, if the Republicans won every race in the state Senate where they managed to field a candidate, they still would come up short on controlling the chamber. In the state House, they managed to leave 27 seats uncontested.  

SSP Daily Digest: 3/8 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Mon Mar 08, 2010 at 3:06 PM EST

• CO-Sen: After Rasmussen showed him in not-so-good shape over the weekend, Michael Bennet is out with his own internal poll from Harstad Research showing him up (barely) over Jane Norton. He leads Norton 41-40, and claims a 41-31 edge among independents. (If that disparity doesn't seem to pencil out, that's because the poll includes more registered Republicans than Democrats, reflecting the state's registration balance.) The poll's a little weird, though: it's a combination of two different surveys, one in January and one in February, and there are no details on his primary matchup with Andrew Romanoff.

• FL-Sen: John Cornyn is sorta-kinda walking back the NRSC endorsement of Charlie Crist in the Florida Senate race, saying that was made before anyone had an inkling it would turn out to be an actual race. He didn't rescind the endorsement, but made clear the NRSC wouldn't be spending any money trying to affect the primary between Crist and Marco Rubio.

• NJ-Sen: Here's some welcome news: after receiving treatment for stomach cancer, Frank Lautenberg is back on the job. He was back on the Hill late last week, and participated in a St. Patrick's Day parade over the weekend.

• NY-Sen: Good news for Chuck Schumer, I suppose. Conservative pundit Larry Kudlow confirmed that he isn't currently planning to challenge Schumer in the Senate this year. So, Schumer goes from a race against a guy he was beating by 40 points, to having no opponent at all.

• OH-Sen: There will be only two Democrats on the ballot for Senate this year: Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner. The other two random interlopers who popped up several weeks ago, TJ Johnson (a former Fisher underling whose presence briefly aroused some suspicions of shenanigans) and Charlena Bradley, didn't have the signatures to qualify for the ballot.

• OR-Sen: Law professor Jim Huffman, who most people became aware of only when Rasmussen polled him against Ron Wyden, went ahead and made it official: he's running for Senate. Blue Oregon has a nice rundown of his strange campaign kickoff at a heavy machinery dealer (shades of Carly Fiorina?), intended to showcase how the stimulus hasn't worked (except for the little detail that the same machinery dealer credits the stimulus for saving jobs there...).

• WI-Sen: Another Tommy Thompson acquaintance is fanning the flames, saying he's "very seriously considering" a Senate bid and "could" soon form an exploratory committee. I'm not sure "could" is very newsworthy, but we'll continue to keep an eye on the situation.

• AK-Gov: Appointed Gov. Sean Parnell's GOP primary opponent, former state House speaker Ralph Samuels, raised some eyebrows with his prodigious fundraising. However, it looks like Parnell is still in good shape as far as the voters are concerned, at least according to an internal poll taken by Republican firm Basswood. They find Parnell with a 71/8 favorable and leading Samuels in the primary 69-9 (with 4 for Bill Walker).

• CA-Gov: Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner has been making some strong moves to the right lately in order to differentiate himself from Meg Whitman, even flip-flopping on abortion. (He got a 100% rating from Planned Parenthood six years ago, but now he's against any government funding for abortion.) While he still lags in the polls, it's at least gaining him some traction on the endorsement front, as he got the nod from the California Republican Assembly (which also endorsed Chuck DeVore on the Senate side) and from Rep. Tom McClintock.

• NY-Gov (pdf): Two more polls on David Paterson's standing find voters fairly split on whether he should stay or go. Siena finds 55% think he should serve the rest of his term while 37% say resign (and only 21% saying he should be impeached if he doesn't resign), while SurveyUSA finds 45% say he should remain in office and 50% say resign. (He has a 25/66 approval according to SurveyUSA and a 21/67 favorable according to Siena.) Siena also looks at November's race, finding Andrew Cuomo leading Rick Lazio by an unsurprising 63-25 margin.

• OR-Gov: The state Republicans held their annual Dorchester Conference, which included a gubernatorial straw poll after appearances from the candidates. In a bit of a surprise, Allen Alley (considered the old-school moderate in the race, to the extent that he used to be deputy chief of staff to Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski) dominated, winning with 225 votes to 165 for substance-less former NBA player Chris Dudley. (Former state Sen. John Lim got 47, and antitax weirdo Bill Sizemore got 1.) Meanwhile, over on the Dem side, a lot of big labor endorsements got rolled out, and the two candidates both got their fair share. John Kitzhaber got the muscle - AFL-CIO and Teamsters - while Bill Bradbury got the brains: the Oregon Education Association and American Federation of Teachers. Finally, Oregon lost a well-liked political figure who briefly ran for Governor in 2006: Republican state Sen.-turned-Democratic state Treasurer Ben Westlund, who died from a recurrence of lung cancer over the weekend.

• CA-47: Businessman and veteran Quang Pham was mounting a strong challenge, at least on the fundraising front, in the GOP primary to Assemblyman Van Tran, to the extent that the NRCC took notice and put him "On the Radar." However, he bailed out of the race on Friday, citing the need to get back to his day job, although he may also have been concerned that the three Vietnamese candidates competing in the primary might split the vote to the extent that it would let no-name Anglo Kathy Smith with the primary.

• IA-03, MO-04: Two old guys who've been on everybody's retirement watch lists despite continuous reassurances that they're running for re-election made it about as official as can be. Leonard Boswell and Ike Skelton have both filed to run one more time.

• KS-04: State Sen. Dick Kelsey, one of half a dozen Republicans fighting for the open seat in the Wichita-based 4th left behind by Rep. Todd Tiahrt, has suspended his campaign. He cited his wife's health problems, and reserved the right to get back in the race later.

• MA-10: Some comings and goings in the Democratic field in the now-open 10th: as expected, Norfolk County DA William Keating is confirming he'll run for the Dem nod. However, oft-mentioned state Rep. Ron Mariano said he'll pass on the race.

• PA-12: As we wait for a verdict from the state Democratic Party's executive committee, here's some interesting scuttlebutt. Pa2010 cites an unnamed high-level party insider as saying it's "highly unlikely" that Mark Critz (former John Murtha district director) gets picked by the state committee, which has the final decision despite the local party's choice of Critz over the weekend. He cites concerns over Critz's electability stemming from tax problems at a company he'd helped run. Pa2010 also hears rumors that Cambria County Controller Ed Cernic Jr., who made little impact at the local convention, could wind up being the compromise pick, as he fits the district's blue-collar pro-life pro-gun mold better than Barbara Hafer but without Critz's possible baggage. We'll know soon whether this is actually happening, or the source was just a guy with an ax to grind.

• DCCC: The D-Trip has named Bruce Braley, Allyson Schwarz, Patrick Murphy, and Donna Edwards as chairs of this cycle's Red to Blue program. While the DCCC has announced some "races to watch," it hasn't officially named anyone to R2B yet. Also, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Steve Israel "will take on additional responsibility this cycle with Democratic incumbents who are not on the DCCC's Frontline Program." I don't know if this means helping folks like Ike Skelton who are vulnerable but not on Frontline, or harassing the crap out of safe members who haven't fulfilled their dues payments. Hopefully both. (D)

• Fundraising: With Bill Russell back in the news with the PA-12 special election, TPM's back on the case of shady GOP fundraising firm BMW Direct, which raises big bucks for gullible candidates with high-profile opponents and keeps almost all of the money for itself. They've changed their name to BaseConnect, but are up to the same old tricks. And I actually feel a little bad about this... Rep. Joe Cao looks like he's gotten tangled up in their web, which explains his fundraising "success" and his near-total burn rate.

• State legislatures: In the diaries, Johnny Longtorso has a comprehensive look at the legislatures that the Dems control and are defending in the 2008 election. There are major redistricting stakes at issue in many of the races, including some where the odds don't look too good, especially Pennsylvania's House.

Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 7

by: James L.

Sun Mar 07, 2010 at 8:53 PM EST

CO-Sen: (3/2, likely voters, 2/2 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39 (37)
Jane Norton (R): 48 (51)
Other: 7 (5)
Undecided: 6 (7)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 42 (38)
Jane Norton (R): 44 (45)
Other: 6 (7)
Undecided: 9 (10)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40 (40)
Tom Wiens (R): 43 (45)
Other: 7 (5)
Undecided: 11 (9)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 41 (40)
Tom Wiens (R): 41 (42)
Other: 6 (6)
Undecided: 13 (12)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 38 (41)
Ken Buck (R): 44 (45)
Other: 6 (5)
Undecided: 11 (8)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (39)
Ken Buck (R): 41 (45)
Other: 5 (6)
Undecided: 13 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NE-Gov (3/4, likely voters):

Dave Heineman (R): 61
Mark Lakers (D): 23
Other: 2
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Gov (3/3, likely voters, 2/3 in parens):

Rory Reid (D): 35 (33)
Brian Sandoval (R): 53 (45)
Other: 7 (11)
Undecided: 5 (12)

Rory Reid (D): 44 (44)
Jim Gibbons (R): 36 (35)
Other: 15 (13)
Undecided: 4 (8)

Rory Reid (D): 37 (40)
Mike Montandon (R): 42 (36)
Other: 13 (14)
Undecided: 8 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Sen (3/3, likely voters, 2/2 in parens)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 38 (39)
Sue Lowden (R): 51 (45)
Other: 7 (8)
Undecided: 3 (8)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 37 (39)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 50 (47)
Other: 9 (8)
Undecided: 4 (6)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 38 (40)
Sharron Angle (R): 46 (44)
Other: 11 (7)
Undecided: 5 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

SSP Daily Digest: 3/3

by: Crisitunity

Wed Mar 03, 2010 at 6:14 PM EST

• AZ-Sen: John McCain is getting the newest GOP sensation, Scott Brown, to come to Arizona to stump for him. Because, you know, nothing says "Hey teabaggers, vote for me instead of J.D. Hayworth!" than bringing in the New England RINO who gladly took all the teabaggers' money and support and turned around and voted for a Democratic piece of legislation on his first week on the job.

• CO-Sen: Having seemingly scored big time with his public option letter (at least to the extent of raising his previously very low profile), Michael Bennet seems to be getting very ambitious. The freshman Senator just unveiled a comprehensive package of Senate reforms that he's authored that's aimed squarely at undoing the quagmire that the Senate has become, including filibuster reform, eliminating anonymous holds and private-sector earmarks, and barring lawmakers from lobbying... for life.

• KS-Sen: Rasmussen finds that (big surprise) all the action in the Kansas Senate race is the GOP primary (although they didn't bother polling the hotly-contested primary). Rather than test possible candidate state Sen. David Haley, they just take the "Generic D" route, and find both Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt beating G.D., 51-26 and 50-29 respectively.

• ND-Sen: The Dems' leading candidate for contesting the likely takeover of the open Senate seat in North Dakota by Republican Gov. John Hoeven decided against a run, probably sensing the long odds. Former AG Heidi Heitkamp said no (on her brother's radio show), although rumors suggest she's interested in running for Governor in 2012, meaning she probably wouldn't want a big defeat as people's last memory of her. State Sen. Tracy Potter is already in for the Dems, and businesswoman Kristin Hedger may also get in, as she said she'd defer only to Heitkamp.

• NY-Sen-B: Is Kirsten Gillibrand going to actually be able to waltz to re-election, or will some other moneybags celebrity pop out of the woodwork next week? After having sent Harold Ford Jr. packing, now billionaire publisher Mort Zuckerman decided against a Republican bid (couching it oddly, in that being a Senator would take up too much time from his actual day job). Zuckerman is wise to save his money, as Rasmussen finds Zuckerman losing to Gillibrand 47-36 (not as bad as Marist yesterday, but still not encouraging). Rasmussen also finds Gillibrand beating even George Pataki, 44-42 (although for some reason they don't poll actual candidate Bruce Blakeman).

• NY-Gov: When it rains, it pours, for David Paterson. The New York State Commission on Public Integrity just released its finding that he violated state ethics laws for securing World Series tickets for himself and friends and then falsely testifying under oath about it. That gets sent over to Andrew Cuomo's desk on top of the whole meshugas about the state police, which kept building today with the resignation of state police superintendent Harry Corbitt. Maurice Hinchey just publicly said what I'll bet most other New York Dems are privately thinking: he's glad he won't have to run with Paterson upticket from him.

Meanwhile, there's a ton of snap polling out today about Paterson, of varying degrees of badness for him. Quinnipiac finds his approval at an all-time low of 24/62, although voters say 61-31 he should finish his term rather than resign. SurveyUSA, however, finds a plurality for resignation: 47 say resign, 44 say stay. Rasmussen finds 28 say resign, 53 say stay. Rasmussen also threw in some numbers for the gubernatorial election in November, finding Cuomo winning against Republican Rick Lazio, 55-30. They also tested out gadflyish businessman Carl Paladino, who's made noises about running. With Paladino as the R, Cuomo wins 56-27, and with Paladino as an I, Cuomo is at 50, with 19 for Lazio and 15 for Paladino.

• OK-Gov: Here's a path for Democrats to win the Governor's race in Oklahoma, according to Rasmussen: find a way for state Sen. Randy Brogdon to win the GOP primary. Unfortunately, it seems like the very conservative Rep. Mary Fallin is well on her way to winning the primary against the ultra-conservative Brogdon. Fallin beats Democratic Lt. Gov. Jari Askins 51-37, and AG Drew Edmondson 51-36. Brodgon, however, loses to Askins 42-39 and beats Edmondson 42-41.

• PA-Gov: Quinnipiac released the gubernatorial half of its Pennsylvania poll, and Arlen Specter's bounce doesn't seem to have rubbed off much on the Democrats running for Governor... although their main problem, as always, seems to be that no one knows who they are. In the primary, "don't know" dominates at 59, followed by Dan Onorato is at 16, Jack Wagner at 11, Joe Hoeffel at 10, and Anthony Williams at 2. AG Tom Corbett has no problems on the GOP side, beating state Rep. Sam Rohrer 43-5. In head-to-heads, Corbett beats Onorato 42-32, Wagner 42-30, and Hoeffel 41-30.

• TN-Gov: Here's another state where it's still just too damn early to be polling the gubernatorial race. MTSU doesn't even bother with head-to-heads in the Tennessee race, but finds that Republican Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam (who's been spending heavily on advertising) has a bit of a leg up, in that he's the least unknown of the myriad candidates (19% of respondents were actually able to name him). Mike McWherter is the best known Dem (although that may be because he shares a last name with his dad the ex-Gov.).

• HI-01: We've gotten confirmation that the May 22 special election to replace resigned Rep. Neil Abercrombie will be an all mail-in affair, saving the state some money but possibly scrambling the parties' GOTV plans. This election and the special election in PA-12 four days earlier pose a quandary for the NRCC -- spend money they don't really have, in order to take advantage of what seems to be nationwide Republican momentum... or fess up that they really don't have much chance in either of these districts and save their money for November (or worse, spend the money and lose anyway, as with NY-20 and NY-23). NRCC spokesperson Paul Lindsey seems to telegraph which way the NRCC is leaning: "Considering that one district is the birthplace of President Obama and the other gives Democrats a voter registration advantage of more than 130,000, it is not lost on anyone that we face an incredible challenge in both races."

• NY-15: Charles Rangel has finally put down his gavel as Ways and Means chair, after he was found to have violated ethics rules. He says it's a temporary "leave of absence," but the House's presiding officer said "the resignation is accepted," suggesting something more permanent. This comes in the face of a growing wave of opposition within his own party, with a number of members returning his PAC money (ranging from the very vulnerable, like Walt Minnick, to the theoretically vulnerable, like Niki Tsongas). Also, perhaps symbolically important, it came after Artur Davis (running for Alabama governor) became the first CBC member to call for Rangel to give up his gavel.

• OK-02 (pdf): The 2nd seems like a strange choice of a place to poll, but I guess it's a good test case in terms of a Democratic Rep. in a dark-red district that hasn't been on anyone's radar screen as being vulnerable (in the face of utterly no-name challengers). True to form, Dan Boren doesn't have much to worry about this fall. He's having no trouble against his anonymous opponents, beating Dan Arnett 49-22, Daniel Edmonds 44-28, and Howard Houchen 48-26. (Teabagging independent Miki Booth pulls in 7 or 8 in each matchup.) Much of that has to do with the level of opposition, but Boren is the first incumbent Rep. PPP has found who's polling above 50 in terms of approval, at 51/33. Boren's occasional, um, departures from the party line can be better understood in terms of Barack Obama's disturbingly low 27/65 approval in the district.

• PA-11: Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O'Brien got some help from the left as he fights a primary battle against crusty Rep. Paul Kanjorski; he got the endorsement of two local unions: the Northeast Pennsylvania Building and Construction Trades Council, and the Scranton Building and Construction Trades Council.

• PA-12: Bill Russell released an internal poll showing him beating Tim Burns in the GOP primary in the 12th. That's not really the newsworthy part; what's interesting is his internal pollster is Zogby. The pollster that everyone treated as an oracle in 2004 has been reduced to polling on behalf of BMW Direct's direct-mail-scam frontman? Lord, how the mighty have fallen.

• Census: Guess who's finally learned to love the Census? Michele Bachmann! Probably after some of her staffers showed her a puppet show spreadsheet showing how a combination of not enough residents in her district + a Democratic governor and legislature = no more MN-06. At any rate, she's planning to vote for a largely symbolic resolution to encourage Americans to participate in the Census.

SSP Daily Digest: 2/25

by: Crisitunity

Thu Feb 25, 2010 at 4:36 PM EST

• CO-Sen: Former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff is counting on labor backing in the Democratic primary, but Michael Bennet got a key boost; he got the endorsement of the SEIU. (That public option letter is already paying dividends.) Meanwhile, Romanoff seems to be staking his hopes on a strong showing in Colorado's party insider-dominated caucus and convention process that begins next month, in order to catapult him into contention. (It's non-binding, and candidates can still win the primary without winning at the convention, with Ken Salazar as Exhibit A.) On the GOP side, former LG Jane Norton is getting slammed from the right by former state Sen. Tom Wiens for her support (following the lead of Republican Gov. Bill Owens) of Referendum C, which passed and lifted certain spending limits imposed by a previous TABOR initiative.

• FL-Sen: We'll have to see if this does anything to tarnish that conservative halo that's gleaming over Marco Rubio's head. Revelations came out (via Jim Greer, the Charlie Crist ally who recently got bounced out his place as state GOP chair) that Rubio charged $13,900 in personal expenses to a party-issued credit card over the course of several years. I don't see this as a game-changer, but it's the first hard blow the Crist camp has been able to land in a while.

• GA-Sen: Rasmussen finds that the anti-incumbent blues are even weighing down super-safe Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson a bit, as he's below 50%. Too bad the Democrats don't have a top-tier candidate to go against him (although it seems like they have a few spares in the gubernatorial race who might consider making the jump). Isakson beats Generic Dem by 49-36.

• NY-Sen-B: Harold Ford Jr.'s big night out at the Stonewall Dems didn't quite go according to plan. He was repeatedly heckled and shouted down as he attempted to explain his convenient road-to-Damascus conversion on matters such as gay marriage. It also turns out that Ford's former House colleagues from the New York delegation aren't much more enthused about his run, either. The majority of the delegation has already endorsed Kirsten Gillibrand, and no one has backed down from that, with Ed Towns, Greg Meeks, Jerry Nadler, Tim Bishop, and Carolyn McCarthy all offering public statements discouraging his run.

• UT-Sen: Wow, yet another Republican is going to get into the primary against Bob Bennett, who has a bullseye on his back because of occasional acts of cooperation instead of lockstep obstructionism. This one is actually a step above the rest of the field... or maybe not. Ex-Rep. Merrill Cook says he's going to get in the race. An ex-Rep. is nothing to sneeze at (especially when none of the other contestants have gotten elected to anything before), but on the other hand, Cook was kind of an eccentric who frequently ran for office until lucking out in 1996. His hotheadedness got him primaried out in 2000 (and Jim Matheson went on to pick up the seat for the Dems that year).

• NY-Gov: The blowback from yesterday's NYT article is already hitting David Paterson's inner circle, suggesting he isn't going to be able to shrug this off. Paterson's Criminal Justice Coordinator, Denise O'Donnell, resigned in protest over having been lied to by the state police.

• OR-Gov: Local Republican pollster Moore Insight takes a look at the gubernatorial race -- and they find ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber doing a lot better than Rasmussen did. They find Kitzhaber has identical 45-33 leads over the two GOPers they judged the strongest, Allen Alley and Chris Dudley. (Rasmussen actually found long-forgotten ex-state Sen. John Lim fared the best against Kitzhaber of the four GOPers, but apparently Moore didn't think Lim was worth polling; Rasmussen had Dudley within 6 of Kitzhaber and Alley trailing by 8.) Moore didn't poll the primaries, or how Democratic ex-SoS Bill Bradbury would fare.

• SC-Gov: Winthrop University polled South Carolina without doing gubernatorial head-to-heads, but that may not matter as they also found that few people know anything about anybody who's running; only LG Andre Bauer came close to 50% name rec. They did find 43 61% approval for Jim DeMint, 39 45% approval for Lindsey Graham, and a surprisingly high (for SC) 48% approval for Barack Obama.

• AK-AL: Businessman, blogger, and gadfly Andrew Halcro (who ran as an indie in the 2006 gubernatorial race) sounds like he's backing down from his planned Republican primary challenge to Rep. Don Young. He cited other developments (all positive) in his business and family life.

• HI-01: It looks like Hawaii's election officials found enough change under the couch cushions to throw together a special election to replace retiring Rep. Neil Abercrombie, after all. They've tentatively set a May 22 date for the all-party winner-take-all election. All three candidates plan to run again in the September primary for the regularly-scheduled election.

• NJ-03: It looks like NFL player and gentleman farmer Jon Runyan may have a less tortuous path to the GOP nomination than Chris Myers did in 2008 (which helped contribute to Rep. John Adler's victory that year). Toms River Committeeman Maurice Hill (the dreaded rear admiral who was the favorite of the Ocean County GOP) decided that he won't run, meaning that all of the county organizations are likely to coalesce around Runyan. Runyan already has the support of the Burlington County party.

• PA-12: After recently deciding not to run, Joyce Murtha weighed in with an endorsement in the battle to replace her deceased husband. She endorsed Murtha's former district director, Mark Critz. The state party will choose a replacement candidate on March 8. On the GOP side, they've pretty much struck out on finding an upgrade from the two guys who were already running, businessman Tim Burns and Bill Russell. And now there's growing worry that Russell -- who claims to be the choice of the conservative grassroots, although mostly that's because he's been able to churn and burn through millions in direct mail fundraising through BaseConnect (the company known until recently as BMW Direct) -- may pull a Doug Hoffman and get on the ballot as an indie if he doesn't get chosen by the party poohbahs. Even RedState has had to weigh in, praising establishment fave Burns and warning Russell not to bolt -- the total opposite of their NY-23 stance, of course, although Burns, who's tried to reach out to the teabaggers, is no Scozzafava-style moderate.

• SD-AL: This is encouraging; even Rasmussen can't find a way to show Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in grave peril. Herseth Sandlin, who has three different credible GOP candidates fighting it out in the primary to take her on, leads all three, two of them by double digits. Herseth Sandlin beats SoS Chris Nelson 45-38, state House assistant majority leader Kristi Noem 49-34, and self-funding state Rep. Blake Curd 51-33. In fact, these numbers are extremely close to the ones put up by PPP back in December.

• IL-LG: Well, here's a nice solution to the Dems' woes in trying to find a Lt. Governor candidate in Illinois: just eliminate the position. State House speaker Michael Madigan is bringing to the House floor a plan to altogether eliminate the non-job that is Lt. Governor in 2015 (and save millions). Unfortunately, that still means the Dems need to find someone to fill that slot (vacated by Scott Lee Cohen's implosion) for one term.

• Polltopia: Nate Silver performs a nice deconstruction of the myth that won't die: that incumbents polling below 50% in early polling are going to lose. He finds there is no consistent tendency for challengers to pick up the bulk of the undecideds. Moreover, a majority of incumbents polling below 50% in the 2006-09 cycles went on to win anyway. (It'd be interesting to extent this study, though, beyond the 06 and 08 wave years to see if it holds true in more neutral cycles.)

SSP Daily Digest: 2/22

by: Crisitunity

Mon Feb 22, 2010 at 3:24 PM EST

• CO-Sen: Democracy for America (Howard Dean's group) is getting involved in the Colorado primary, lending its support to appointed Sen. Michael Bennet. Probably his full-throated support for the public option is helping raise his profile in the netroots. It's hard to pin down where the ideological fault lines in this primary are, though; his opponent Andrew Romanoff has gotten the big labor endorsements (although both Bennet and Romanoff sound leery about EFCA), and they spent their first debate last week mostly agreeing with and offering kind words about each other.

• FL-Sen:  Sorry, Charlie... Rasmussen takes another look at the GOP Senate primary and finds Marco Rubio putting more distance between himself and Charlie Crist. Rubio is leading Crist 54-36, which is an even bigger gap that last months' 49-37 edge.

• IN-Sen: Ooops, this could get awkward. Rep. Baron Hill, who was out of the country all last week, got back and decided that he's at least somewhat interested in (or at least "open to the idea of") the Senate seat left behind by Evan Bayh too. Rep. Brad Ellsworth already is being treated as heir apparent (to the extent that a replacement for his seat in the 8th is lined up, too), but the state party committee will get the final word on who fills Bayh's slot.

• NC-Sen: As a bonus addition to their NC-Sen poll from last week, PPP took a look at both sides' primaries too. On the Democratic side, undecideds rule the day; SoS Elaine Marshall does have the lead, beating former state Sen. Cal Cunningham 29-12 (with 5 for Kenneth Lewis and 2 for Marcus Williams). The only subgroup where Cunningham has the edge so far is voters under 30. On the Republican side, further signs of voters' general indifference about Richard Burr: he's polling at only 55% against two unknowns, Brad Jones at 10 and Eddie Burks at 3.  

• NV-Sen (pdf): The first poll of the Nevada Senate race following the news that the Tea Party has sprung into existence and will be running Some Dude is an internal from a GOP pollster, POS. He finds that the top Republicans still beat Harry Reid, but by a much narrower margin than the last few rounds of polling have seen: Sue Lowden leads Reid 42-37 (with 9 for Jon Ashjian), while Danny Tarkanian leads 40-39 (with 11 for Ashjian). Reid beats Sharron Angle 37-32 (with 16 for Ashjian) and Mark Amodei 40-25 (with 19 for Ashjian). Lowden has the edge in the GOP primary, at 35, to 28 for Tarkanian, 8 for Angle, 5 for someone named Chad Christensen, 1 for Amodei, and 0 for the oft-hyped rich guy John Chachas. (Amodei, a termed-out state Senator from Reno, seems to have gotten the message from all this, and dropped out of the race today.

• NY-Sen-B: The NY Daily News observes what I had sensed was happening: the likely challenge from Harold Ford Jr. has seemed to mostly benefit Kirsten Gillibrand, as it raised her profile, and finally kicked her into higher gear, as she's sought out the spotlight a little more on issues like the public option and DADT. The newest Siena poll (pdf) finds Gillibrand in fine shape so long as George Pataki doesn't surprise everyone by getting into the race. She trails Pataki 47-41, while beating Port Commissioner Bruce Blakeman 51-24 and wealthy publisher Mort Zuckerman 49-29. She also leads Ford and Jonathan Tasini in the Democratic primary, 42-16-4. If Ford somehow survives the primary, he trails Pataki 48-34, while also beating Blakeman (41-23) and Zuckerman (40-26).

• CA-Gov: A nameless GOP pollster, on behalf of a nameless corporate client, shared an internal poll of the GOP gubernatorial primary with Taegan Goddard. While the lack of transparency is sketchy, the numbers are quite credible: Meg Whitman leads Steve Poizner 55-16.

• MO-Gov: This may be a little premature, but Republican Lt. Governor Peter Kinder is already publicly saying that he's running for Governor in 2012, presumably against incumbent Dem Jay Nixon. An early start can only help, though; in 2008, Nixon benefited from having his nomination locked down way in advance, while the Republicans fought it out in a nasty primary.

• NM-Gov: NMSU is out with the first poll of the wide-open Republican gubernatorial primary field (although apparently not the general election). Thanks to the benefits of name rec, attorney Pete Domenici Jr. leads the field at 29, ahead of Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez at 12, former state party chair Allen Weh at 7, Doug Turner at 7, and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones at 3. The New Mexico Independent breathlessly reports that this was before the bombshell revelations came out that Domenici used (gasp!) marijuana and cocaine while in college in the (swoon!) 1980s... as if that's going to change a single vote.

• NV-Gov (pdf): That GOP internal from Glen Bolger also has gubernatorial numbers. Most interestingly, it sees Jim Gibbons (the damaged GOP incumbent) gaining some ground on ex-AG Brian Sandoval; Gibbons trails only 38-32, with North Las Vegas mayor Michael Montandon coming in at 9 (Sandoval's decline may come at the benefit of Montandon as his profile increases, splitting the non-Gibbons vote). Reid the Younger (Rory, that is) beats Gibbons in the general, 47-36, while tying Montandon 40-40 but losing badly to Sandoval, 50-34. (Also worth noting: the poll also asks some state-level policy questions, and found voters preferring raising taxes to cutting services, 47-38. Certainly more grist for the mill, especially after the passages of Measures 66 and 67 in Oregon.)

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo is still taking his time on announcing anything regarding his expected gubernatorial run. While rumormongers seem to think at this point that the announcement is coming in mid to late April (after the fighting over the state budget is completed), the NYT points to a finite deadline: May 25, when the party convention begins (unless for some reason he wants to get on the ballot by collecting signatures and petitioning instead). The same Siena poll (pdf) that we talked about earlier also, as always, covers the gubernatorial race, and there aren't any surprises there (except perhaps that David Paterson is slipping a bit against GOP candidate Rick Lazio, in the unlikely event he survives his primary). In the primary, Cuomo moves up to 64-22 lead over Paterson (they stopped asking about Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy, whose support seemed to come only out of Cuomo's column and had pushed Cuomo down to 57 last month). Cuomo beats Lazio 63-26, while Lazio beats Paterson 46-39. (Lazio and Paterson were tied at 42 last month.)

• OR-Gov: Rasmussen issued its first poll of the Oregon governor's race, and find Democrats leading in every permutation. As always, it wouldn't be Rasmussen without something weird in there, and what's weird here is that the closest race is between Democratic ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber and long-ago ex-state Sen. John Lim, where Kitzhaber leads only 40-38. (Lim has a 31/28 approval, which I suppose is low name rec by Rasmussen's strange standards, but freakishly high when considering that the 74-year-old Lim's last big moment on the stage was losing the 1998 Senate race to Ron Wyden by 61-34, and that he's probably best known for misspelling his own name on his bumper stickers from his 1990 gubernatorial run, where he lost the primary). Kitzhaber leads Chris Dudley 42-36, Allen Alley 42-34, and Bill Sizemore 48-35, while Bill Bradbury leads Lim 38-35, Dudley 39-36, Alley 41-35, and Sizemore 48-23.

• VT-Gov: That Research 2000 poll (on behalf of local TV affiliate WCAX) that came out late last week had some additional matchups that we didn't report on, focusing on the ever-present threat of a left-wing spoiler campaign from Anthony Pollina (although last I'd heard, Pollina was sounding more interested in trying for the Democratic nod rather than running 3rd party). Republican Lt. Governor Brian Dubie wins each permutation, including against SoS Deb Markowitz (who led Dubie in a 2-way race), where he's up 37-35 with 11 for Pollina. Dubie beats Doug Racine 38-32-12, Peter Shumlin 39-31-12, Matt Dunne 38-31-12, and Susan Barlett 44-26-13.

• WI-Gov: The first candidate to hit the TV airwaves in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race is ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, who's being treated as the underdog in the GOP primary against Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker. Neumann has deep pockets, but this may be an indication that he's committed to fighting out the gubernatorial battle to the end instead of moving over to the Senate race, where Russ Feingold currently only has minor opposition.

• MI-14, MI-15: Two octogenarian liberal stalwarts, and the two longest-serving members of the House, both confirmed that they'll be running for another term: John Dingell (looking for term number 28) and John Conyers (term 23).

• PA-06: Looks like that internal poll released by Rep. Jim Gerlach that had him leading by an ungodly amount had the desired effect. Pharmaceutical exec Steven Welch packed his bags and got out of the race, leaving Gerlach with only token opposition. With a fierce primary underway on the Dem side, it's now quite the reversal of fortune in this district from where we were mid-last year, when the Dems were united behind Doug Pike and a GOP food fight was underway.

• PA-12: Chris Cillizza is reporting that Joyce Murtha, widow of Rep. Jack Murtha, is going to announce that she won't run in the May 18 special election to replace her husband. This is big news, as the frontrunners, ex-LG Mark Singel and ex-Treasurer Barbara Hafer, said they'd defer to Murtha. (One more Dem is getting into the field today, Mark Critz, who was Murtha's district director. Singel and Hafer are the universally-regarded heavyweights, though.) Cillizza also hints that Republicans  "downplay their chances" in this special election, despite the district's R+1 lean (the real problem for them is their lack of a bench in this traditionally very Democratic area).

• VA-09: Republican state House majority leader Morgan Griffith seems to be moving ahead with a challenge to long-time Rep. Rick Boucher in the 9th, an Appalachian district that's sliding away from the Democrats. While the district's trend has to hearten Griffith, he has two problems: Boucher's huge cash stash, and the fact that Griffith doesn't live in the district, although very near the border - but while he's known in the Roanoke market portion of the district, he'll need to start from square one in coal country in the deep southwest.

• WA-03: Here's a surprising departure from the Democratic field in the 3rd: state Rep. Deb Wallace, who jumped promptly into the field after Rep. Brian Baird's retirement and attracted good notices for the few days she had the Dem field to herself. She isn't endorsing anybody, but said that the district needed a "true moderate Democrat" (which would seem to point toward ex-state Rep. Denny Heck rather than the more liberal state Sen. Craig Pridemore). Heck's personal wealth probably drove Wallace out of the race, especially since she'd be splitting the "true moderate" votes with Heck while Pridemore ran unimpeded on the liberal side (well, except for flaky activist Cheryl Crist).

• FL-St. House: In the face of a growing ethics investigation that could potentially start moving in a criminal direction, Republican former state House speaker Ray Sansom resigned from his House seat today. There's one interesting name among the many persons who'd been subpoenaed to testify before the House Select Committee on Standards of Official Conduct: another former state House speaker (and now Senate candidate) Marco Rubio. (Rubio isn't accused of wrongdoing, and now it sounds like the hearings have been rendered moot anyway.)

• Filings: Campaign Diaries gives a rundown of what happened with the Ohio and Indiana filings, which closed last week. Dems are looking at five competitive retentions in Ohio (including OH-13, where wealthy auto dealer Tom Ganley completed his switch for the Senate race, and OH-18, where state Sen. Bob Gibbs deciced to pull the trigger. Potential problems lurk for the GOP in OH-15, where David Ryon filed as the Constitution Party candidate (meaning Steve Stivers might get screwed from the right a second time), and in OH-16, where NRCC fave Jim Renacci faces a competitive primary against more conservative (and presumably less electable) Matt Miller, who almost won the open seat GOP primary in 2008. The GOP's big disappointment is probably OH-06, where their best bet seems to be former Belmont Co. Sheriff Richard Stobbs (who lost by a wide margin in 2008). There's less drama in Indiana (except for the unresolved IN-Sen and IN-08 situations), although the open seat in dark-red IN-04 attracted a host of Republicans (most notably SoS Todd Rokita, but also two state Senators).

SSP Daily Digest: 2/15

by: Crisitunity

Mon Feb 15, 2010 at 4:11 PM EST

• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff is rolling out more endorsements, as he seems to be finally getting his primary challenge to Michael Bennet into gear in the wake of recent polling showing him outperforming Bennet in the general election. He's claiming the endorsement of more than two-thirds of the Democrats in the state House, including current majority leader Paul Weissman, as well as state Senate majority leader John Morse and former House speaker Ruben Valdez. Romanoff, of course, is a former House speaker himself, so he's got an 'in' with the legislative types.

• NV-Sen: I wonder if this is the break that'll save Harry Reid's butt in November? (Especially if Sue Lowden winds up winning the GOP nomination, as she's public enemy number 1 to the state's Paulists.) The "Tea Party" has filed a "Certificate of Existence" (where can I get one of those, for whenever people doubt that I exist?) in Nevada, and will have its own candidate on the ballot in November. Jon Ashjian will reportedly be their candidate; the question still remains just how big a bite he takes out of the Republican column, though. In addition, there will also be a Reform Party candidate on the ballot and as many as five independents.

• NY-Sen-B: Mort Zuckerman? Really? Maybe he's taking a page from friend Michael Bloomberg and realizing that, with enough money, any political office is within reach for a restless billionaire. The 72-year-old Daily News publisher and real estate baron is considering a race against Kirsten Gillibrand, although there's no indication of which party label he'd use. He's known as a Democrat, but it seems likely he'd pursue either an independent or Republican bid to avoid the Democratic primary (where Harold Ford Jr. already seems to be occupying the turf Zuckerman would need in order to win).

• CT-Gov: Here's the top facepalm news of the day: Ned Lamont has hired a campaign manager as he officially kicks off his gubernatorial campaign, and he hired Joe Abbey, last seen... wait for it... helming Creigh Deeds' campaign.

• FL-Gov: This doesn't sound very promising either, as the St. Petersburg Times looks at the growing sense of torpor surrounding the Alex Sink campaign. Sink has had little trouble fundraising and a so-so GOP opponent, but operatives are starting to worry she's walking a Martha Coakley-ish line on focusing on insider connections and with a lack of interest in mixing it up with voters or even developing a resonant message.

• PA-Gov: The GOP state party endorsements came with a lot less drama than the Democrats', seeing as how they've had their candidates locked down for most of a year. AG Tom Corbett easily got the endorsement for governor over state Rep. Sam Rohrer, which was widely expected although it still piqued Rohrer's handful of right-wing supporters. The most drama was actually for the #2 slot; Bucks County Commissioner Jim Cawley managed to win the Lt. Governor endorsement on the second ballot out of a crowded field. On the Democratic side, Philadelphia-based state Sen. Anthony Williams is still expressing some interest in the race, although he's set a very high bar for entry for himself. He's sitting $1 million already, and he says if he can get that figure up to $4 million in the next few weeks, he'll jump in.

• TX-Gov (pdf): There's yet another poll out of the Texas gubernatorial primaries, from a coalition of newspapers, most prominently the Austin American-Statesman. It's right in line with the other polls out recently, with Rick Perry at 45, Kay Bailey Hutchison at 29, and Debra Medina at 7. (They don't poll runoff matchups, or the Dem primary.) Houston mayor Bill White continues to make this a competitive race for the Dems in the general: he trails Perry 43-37, and Hutchison 42-34. Meanwhile, Debra Medina (who recently seemed to blunt any late momentum by revealing her truly kooky side) may have some good company, in the form of Democratic candidate Farouk Shami: he came out with some statements putting him in truther-curious territory as well. Shami is also about to announce the invention of a blow dryer that actually grows hair. (Why aim low, for merely Governor, if that's true? If it's really true, he's about to become a trillionaire.)

• AZ-03: I'm not sure if this is the family name you really want, when running for office, but a new candidate is in the GOP field in the open seat race in the 3rd: Ben Quayle. The 33-year-old attorney, who hasn't run for office before, is the son of former VP and frequent punchline Dan Quayle.

• FL-24: With the former CEO of the Ruth's Chris Steakhouse chain, Craig Miller, planning to run in the 24th, Democrats are spotlighting his opposition to tougher laws on drunk driving. (As a restauranteur, he would have a financial interest in getting that extra drink into his guests.) "Once 0.08 becomes law, why not 0.05 or 0.02?" he asked in a 2000 interview.

• MA-10: The William Delahunt retirement rumors aren't going away, and now Glenn Thrush points to a Delahunt-out/Joe Kennedy III-in/Delahunt-endorses-Kennedy master-plan in the works. Kennedy, a Barnstable County prosecuting attorney, isn't the only Kennedy of his generation who's a possible House candidate; Politico helpfully provides a scorecard of various other Kennedys who might run for higher office in the future. At any rate, even if Joe III doesn't wind up in the next Congress, it's likely Congress won't stay Kennedy-free for very long.

• OK-05: There's one less Oklahoma Republican in the primary for the open seat in dark-red OK-05. Corporation Commissioner Jeff Cloud cited non-life-threatening health concerns in dropping out of the race, although he plans to keep serving in his current job. Six different GOPers are in the field (perhaps most notably, former state Rep. Kevin Calvey), but no Dem has gotten in yet.

• PA-03: One other dropout from a crowded GOP field, this time for the right to take on Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper in the 3rd. Tom Trevorrow, an ophthalmologist who made a splashy entrance recently with a big serving of self-funding and some expensive consultant hires, ended his bid just as quickly, citing his father's illness.

• RI-01: A couple big names have already gotten into the race to replace retiring Rep. Patrick Kennedy, the biggest possibly being Providence's mayor David Cicilline (who surprised many by turning down a gubernatorial run this year). Cicilline would be the fourth openly-gay member of Congress, if elected. He'll have to get past William Lynch in the primary, though; Lynch, the brother of AG and gubernatorial candidate Patrick Lynch, just resigned as the state's Democratic party chair in order to run. Pretty much every prominent Democrat around is also listed as a possible candidate: Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts (who also decided against a gubernatorial run), ex-Rep. Bob Weygand (of RI-02, who lost the 2000 Senate race to Lincoln Chafee), ex-LG Charles Fogarty, and even state Rep. Betsy Dennigan, who's currently running a primary against Rep. James Langevin over in RI-02. (Rhode Island seems like Hawaii, where the boundaries between the two districts seem like they're of little practical importance.) On the GOP side, state Rep. John Loughlin is already in, while former Cranston mayor and Senate candidate Steven Laffey and state party chair Giovanni Cicione are also mentioned.

• TN-08: Everyone has pretty well coalesced around state Sen. (and until recently, gubernatorial candidate) Roy Herron to try to hold retiring Rep. John Tanner's seat. Democratic state Rep. Craig Fitzhugh just announced that he wouldn't run, and in a somewhat encouraging sign, said that his own polling showed that he wouldn't have trouble getting past the various Republicans seeking the seat in the R+3 (but historically Democratic) district. Instead, he didn't see a way past Herron in the primary.

• VA-05: PPP has some follow-up on its previous general election poll of VA-05, looking at the GOP primary, which has the potential to be one of the biggest flashpoints in the establishment/teabagger schism. For now, chalk this one up to the establishment: state Sen. Robert Hurt leads at 22 (leading among both moderates and conservatives), with Albemarle Co. Commissioner Ken Boyd at 12. The various members of the teabagging rabble all poll in the low single digits. With 51% still undecided, though, this is still anyone's game once the ad wars begin.

• CA-LG: So, Arnold Schwarzenegger dialed down his banana-republic dictator act from last week, deciding to resubmit Republican state Sen. Abel Maldonado for appointment as Lt. Governor, rather than deciding to swear him in despite not getting enough votes in the Assembly to confirm him. The legislature has another 90 days to decide what to do with him.

SSP Daily Digest: 2/12

by: Crisitunity

Fri Feb 12, 2010 at 2:23 PM EST

• CO-Sen: Here's a sign of life for the strangely low-profile Andrew Romanoff primary campaign: he just got the endorsements of two of the state's major unions, the Teamsters and the UFCW. Michael Bennet did just vote to confirm Craig Becker to the NLRB, but the unions take issue with his lack of support for the card-check provision of EFCA. Meanwhile, Tom Wiens is offering one of the strangest excuses I've ever heard for his failure to get much traction in the GOP primary: there are a whole lot of Nortons in Colorado, and people reflexively will vote for any of them.

• IN-Sen: Another day, another damning revelation about Dan Coats' lobbying past. Today, it turns out that his lobbying firm, King & Spalding, was lobbying on behalf of Bank of America at a time it was seeking patent approval for a formula that would help companies evaluate whether and how to outsource their operations to lower-overhead countries.

• NC-Sen: Richard Burr has drawn a primary challenger as he seeks his first re-election the Senate. Asheboro city councilor Eddie Burks, however, doesn't have the kind of high-profile position that's likely to make much of an impact. But even weirder is the nature of the challenge. You'd think he might get some traction if he reached out to the teabaggers and accused Burr of being insufficiently bloodthirsty, but instead it's a surprisingly level-headed critique of Burr's inaccessibility and general anonymity.

• NY-Sen: Speaking of random primary challenges, now Chuck Schumer is facing one too, from Phil Krone, an Illinois and/or Florida political consultant who was just involved in Dan Hynes' unsuccessful campaign. Krone says he'll dive in only if he can raise $10K in contributions before April 1; given the strangeness of his bid, even that seems kind of a high bar to reach.

• NY-Sen-B: Finally, there's one other carpetbagging primary challenge that's only slightly less random: that of Harold Ford Jr. against Kirsten Gillibrand. This latest discovery isn't likely to help Ford's case much: Ford claims that paying New York taxes has helped make him a New Yorker... except he hasn't paid any New York income taxes. Ford has continued to maintain Tennessee residency, which is convenient, seeing as how Tennessee doesn't have an income tax on wages. I guess what he meant is that he pays sales tax on all his New York pedicures.

• WI-Sen: Ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson sure likes keeping his name in the news. Despite his recently signing on to work for a hedge fund on agribusiness matters (and his various other private sector projects, including being a partner at DC biglaw firm Akin Gump, he's still refusing to rule out a Senate bid. "I'm going through a process," he says cryptically.

• NY-Gov: Looks like we will have David Paterson to kick around for at least a few months more. Despite the mounting tsunami of crap threatening to engulf him, and facing very likely annihilation by Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary, Paterson has been e-mailing supporters to tell them that on Feb. 20 or 21 he'll officially launch his bid to stay Governor. He is adopting the "outsider" mantle for his run, since, of course, nothing says "outsider" more than being the sitting Governor of New York.

• MI-03: CQ compiles a list of a truckload of different Republicans who might seek the seat opened up this week by retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers in the Grand Rapids-based 3rd. Prime contenders include state Sens. Bill Hardiman and Mark Jansen, former state Rep. Jerry Kooiman, and former state Sen. Majority leader Ken Sikkema, all of whom say they'll decide soon. Former Lt. Gov., and gubernatorial candidate, Dick Posthumus, has ruled out a bid, and it seems unlikely that SoS Terri Lynn Land (who'd been associated with the seat when Ehlers retirement rumors popped up early last year) will run, as she might have her sights on the LG slot. While the GOP has the stronger bench here, Dems who might run include former state Reps. Michael Sak and Steve Pestka, and state Rep. Robert Dean.

• NY-20: One seat that should be attractive to Republicans, given the narrowness of Rep. Scott Murphy's special election victory, is the 20th, but it's proven be one of their biggest recruiting headaches. Assemblyman Marc Molinaro is the latest GOPer to decline. Jim Tedisco, who lost to Murphy in the special, shut down his account from that election but hasn't fully ruled out another run. Murphy is already sitting on $1.4 million, which certainly acts as a deterrent.

• OH-06: The rural, Appalachian-flavored 6th (at R+2, and a negative trend from Kerry to Obama) is another district that should be a Republican target, but where Rep. Charlie Wilson hasn't drawn a serious opponent yet. Some Dude, however, has stepped up, in the form of businessman Bill Johnson. Johnson had been considering a run next door in the 17th (where he lives) against Rep. Tim Ryan, but recently seemed to realize the 6th would be easier sledding.

• CA-LG: The confirmation of Abel Maldonado as California's new Lt. Governor has become a bizarre clusterf@ck. First off, there's the question of why legislative Democrats would want to keep Maldonado in his Dem-leaning, pick-up-able Senate seat instead of promoting him to the entirely harmless LG slot. Clearly the Senate Dems like the idea of getting to the magic 2/3s mark, as Maldonado's appointment cleared the Senate easily, but then enough Dems in the Assembly voted against it that his appointment failed, with 37 voting yes and 35 voting no. Confused? Well, some would say that he needed 41 votes (a majority of the 80-seat chamber) in order to be confirmed. Arnold Schwarzenegger is claiming victory, though, and planning to swear in Maldonado anyway, claiming that there would need to be 41 votes against Maldonado for the confirmation to fail. Several election law experts say Ahnold has a good point with that, although there's guidance from a 1988 state treasurer appointment that says otherwise. Looks like this is headed to the courts.

• Teabaggers: Ed Kilgore picks apart the recent CBS poll regarding the tea party movement, and comes to the same conclusions that I've been teasing out... that there's really nothing new in the movement, and that it's just the most conservative elements of the Republican coalition in just a particularly revved-up, radicalized mood, and with a handy new name to distinguish themselves. This is particularly seen that 62% of them have a favorable view of the Republican party, despite their vague claims to be a movement separate from the parties.

Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol 3.

by: DavidNYC

Sun Feb 07, 2010 at 3:34 PM EST

CO-Sen (2/2, likely voters, 1/13 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 37 (37)
Jane Norton (R): 51 (49)
Other: 5 (3)
Undecided: 7 (11)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 38 (35)
Jane Norton (R): 45 (47)
Other: 7 (5)
Undecided: 10 (14)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40 (38)
Tom Wiens (R): 45 (44)
Other: 5 (4)
Undecided: 9 (14)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (39)
Tom Wiens (R): 42 (44)
Other: 6 (4)
Undecided: 12 (14)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (38)
Ken Buck (R): 45 (43)
Other: 5 (4)
Undecided: 8 (15)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 39 (39)
Ken Buck (R): 45 (40)
Other: 6 (5)
Undecided: 10 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Sen (2/3, likely voters, 12/9 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 40 (42)
Mark Kirk (R): 46 (39)
Other: 4 (3)
Undecided: 10 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

KY-Sen (2/2, likely voters, 1/6 in parens):

Jack Conway (D): 40 (35)
Trey Grayson (R): 44 (45)
Other: 3 (7)
Undecided: 12 (12)

Jack Conway (D): 39 (38)
Rand Paul (R): 47 (46)
Other: 3 (4)
Undecided: 11 (12)

Daniel Mongiardo (D): 35 (37)
Trey Grayson (R): 49 (44)
Other: 5 (8)
Undecided: 11 (11)

Daniel Mongiardo (D): 37 (35)
Rand Paul (R): 48 (49)
Other: 3 (3)
Undecided: 12 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Sen (2/2, likely voters, 1/11 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 41
Brian Krolicki (R): 44
Other: 7
Undecided: 8

Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (36)
Sue Lowden (R): 45 (48)
Other: 8 (8)
Undecided: 8 (7)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (36)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 47 (50)
Other: 8 (5)
Undecided: 6 (9)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (40)
Sharon Angle (R): 44 (44)
Other: 7 (10)
Undecided: 8 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

SSP Daily Digest: 1/28

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 4:32 PM EST

• AZ-Sen: Sarah Palin is still dancin' with the one who brung her. She announced yesterday that she'll appear on behalf of John McCain, who plucked her from near-obscurity and is now needs a favor of his own as he's facing a primary challenge from the right from ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth. Needless to say, this provoked a lot of disappointment from her supporters among the teabagging set, who would prefer to see her stab McCain in the back and then field dress him.

• CO-Sen: With right-wingers filled with antipathy toward establishment choice ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, there's been a lot of casting about for an alternative. Weld County DA Ken Buck seems more and more like he'll be that guy, as he's been making common cause with the Paulists, who are now planning to pay for a statewide advertising campaign on Buck's behalf. Meanwhile, on the Dem side, primary challenger Andrew Romanoff is trying to energize his sleepy campaign with a big hire - pollster Celinda Lake, whose previously sterling reputation got driven off a cliff with her handling of the Martha Coakley campaign.

• CT-Sen: There's not much left to see for the 2010 race, but everyone's thinking ahead to 2012, with the new rumor afoot that - with the Senate Kennedy-free for the first time in more than half a century - Ted Kennedy Jr. may run against Joe Lieberman in 2012. Lieberman himself is up to his usual asshattery, speculating out loud that he could conceive of becoming a Republican, and also saying that he might support Linda McMahon in the 2010 race... seeing as how Richard Blumenthal (tepidly) supported Lamont in the 2006 general while McMahon supported Lieberman. Apparently Lieberman learned his politics from watching the Godfather: it's not business. Just personal. (Lieberman also seems to be a believer in leaving the cannoli, and taking the guns.)

• FL-Sen: In the wake of new polling showing him falling behind Marco Rubio in the GOP Senate primary, the questions are getting louder about whether Charlie Crist might consider running as an independent instead. He said no to that idea... but people are noticing he didn't rule out switching parties altogether. With Crist appearing side-by-side with Barack Obama today in Florida (something he wouldn't consider doing if he saw any hope in trying to compete with Rubio - who just got the endorsement of ur-conservative Steve Forbes -- on conservative bona fides alone), could that actually be a consideration? If so, he'd need to switch parties by April 30.

• MA-Sen: There are a couple more retrospectives worth reading on Massachusetts, as people try to make sense of the mixed messages sent by exit polls (with one particularly intriguing tidbit: 52% of Scott Brown voters approved of Ted Kennedy's performance). Mark Blumenthal also looks at the shift in polling over the last few weeks, wondering again about the differing results gotten by live interviewers vs. robocallers, while also pointing to questions of how much pollsters' views of a race can actually change the overall momentum of the race (fundraising and perception-wise) and thus become a self-fulfilling prophecy. And get ready for the teabaggers' week-long love affair to end very soon: Scott Brown (who apparently has some self-preservation instincts) just served notice on the GOP that he won't always vote with them.

• ND-Sen: This isn't going to make the teabaggers any happier: Gov. John Hoeven, now running for the Senate, joined the Democratic Party in 1996 (at a time when he was head of North Dakota's state-owned bank), ditching them in 2000 for his gubernatorial run. With Hoeven already on their naughty list for his insufficiently anti-government stances, now he's just going to get more wrath.

• NH-Sen: Former AG Kelly Ayotte is wielding an internal poll by the Tarrance Group that gives her a big edge in the GOP primary against her challengers. She leads Ovide Lamontagne, coming at her from the right, 43-11. Random rich guys Bill Binnie and Jim Bender clock in at 5 and 3 apiece. No general election numbers were released.

• NV-Sen: One more disastrous poll for Harry Reid, which came out from Research 2000 a few days ago. This poll closely echoed one from PPP a few weeks ago that tested alternative Democrats, and finds that only Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman beats the Republicans (while Rep. Shelly Berkley and SoS Ross Miller don't fare much better than Reid). Unfortunately, this was all rendered moot a few days ago by Goodman's announcement that he wasn't going to run for either Governor or Senator. Reid loses 52-41 to Danny Tarkanian and 51-42 to Sue Lowden. Berkley loses 46-40 to Tarkanian and 45-40 to Lowden, while Miller loses 44-36 to Tarkanian and 43-37 to Lowden. Goodman beats Tarkanian 44-41 and Lowden 44-40. Rep. Dina Titus, facing a tough re-election of her own, doesn't seem to think much of Reid's chances anymore: she publicly said "Reid is done; he's going to lose."

• NY-Sen-B: One other Research 2000 poll to talk about: they looked at the Democratic primary in New York, and find about what everyone else has found. Kirsten Gillibrand leads ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. by a 41-27 margin (with 3 for Jonathan Tasini), looking solid but still with a ton of undecideds. This also exists merely at the level of rumor, but with the potential presence of Ford scrambling things for the ever-so-briefly-thought-to-be-safe Gillibrand, sources say that Democratic Rep. Steve Israel (who got dissuaded from a primary challenge) and Republican ex-Gov. George Pataki (who hasn't sounded interested until now) are both giving the race a little more consideration.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): Franklin & Marshall's previous polls in Pennsylvania have tended to have unusually high undecideds, suggesting that they don't do any pushing of leaners at all - but this may have reached an all-time high with their new poll. Most notably, they find Allegeheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato completely dominating the Democratic gubernatorial primary... at 10% (more than doubling up on Jack Wagner, Joe Hoeffel, and Chris Doherty, all at 4)! They also find similarly low numbers in the Senate race, where Republican ex-Rep. Pat Toomey leads incumbent Dem Arlen Specter 45-31 and Rep. Joe Sestak 41-19 (?!?), and where Specter beats Sestak in the primary 30-13. (They didn't do a general election poll in the Governor's race, but find Republican AG Tom Corbett leading his remaining rival, state Rep. Sam Rohrer, 23-5 in the primary.)

• UT-Sen: The Mason-Dixon poll that gave us some (not so good) gubernatorial results also threw in some vague questions about the Senate race too. Incumbent Bob Bennett leads a Generic R in the primary, 46-27, and a Generic D 53-26 in the general. Nevertheless, Bennett drew yet another primary opponent, albeit someone seemingly of the Some Dude variety: local businessman Christopher Stout.

• WI-Sen: Wherever there's a vacillating Republican needing convincing to get into a Senate race, there's Rasmussen. (Whaddya wanna bet they have a Patty Murray/Dave Reichert poll in the field right now?) Contrary to PPP's view of the race, Rasmussen finds ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson leading incumbent Dem Russ Feingold, 47-43. They find Feingold with a perplexingly low 47/48 approval.

• CT-Gov: Is ex-Rep. Chris Shays looking to get into the Governor's race? Suddenly, it sounds like he's at least thinking about it, saying he'd like to do it but not sure if it's feasible. He's currently in Washington as head of the Wartime Contracting Commission, meaning he'd need to re-establish his Connecticut residency, but given his long-time popularity in his district (which eventually got too blue for him to hold) he might have a leg up on the so-so GOPers already in the field.

• FL-Gov: Quinnipiac released the gubernatorial half of its Florida poll yesterday, finding that Republican AG Bill McCollum has a somewhat bigger lead on Democratic CFO Alex Sink, 41-31 (McCollum led 36-32 in October). Sink leads state Sen. Paula Dockery 35-29, but considering that McCollum leads Dockery 44-6 in the GOP primary, that configuration doesn't seem likely.

• MI-Gov: Two guys who had been unlikely candidates for the Democratic nomination for Governor both announced they wouldn't run. Rep. Bart Stupak is the big name to say "no," which is good as far as the DCCC is concerned, as he's needed to hold down the fort in his R+3 district. The other is Detroit Pistons head of basketball operations Joe Dumars, who probably realized he'd get pretty banged up out there without Bill Laimbeer to run interference for him. One other interesting rumor of who might run, though, is ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, the GOP moderate who got bounced out in a 2006 Club for Growth-fueled primary by Tim Walberg. And get this... he's talking about running as an independent. Could he actually peel off enough center-right votes for the Dems to salvage this race?

• NY-Gov: Research 2000's New York poll also looked at the Democratic gubernatorial primary, finding AG Andrew Cuomo defeating incumbent David Paterson, 63-19. Paterson is laboring under 34/54 approvals. The GOP primary to see who gets flattened by Cuomo is looking pretty uneventful: Erie Co. Exec Chris Collins, who continued to express vague interest despite having gaffed his way out of contention several months ago, finally pulled the plug on his exploratory committee. That leaves ex-Rep. Rick Lazio as the only major GOPer in the race, to few people's enthusiasm.

• TX-Gov: Looks like Gov. Rick Perry isn't much of a fan of the librul media, or at least he realizes that his key demographics aren't really the newspaper-reading types. He's decided not to sit for editorial board interviews prior to their pre-primary endorsements.  

SSP Daily Digest: 1/20

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jan 20, 2010 at 3:50 PM EST

• FL-Sen: I wonder if we'll see more of this from insurgent Democratic candidates. Former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre, looking for some sort of angle to use against front-running Rep. Kendrick Meek for the Democratic Senate nomination, has come out against the current health care reform plan (although not against HCR in general), calling it "a special interest plan that raises taxes and favors insurance and pharmaceutical companies."

• KS-Sen: The PMA scandal has mostly left House Democrats tarred with its brush, especially crusty old-school guys from that Appropriations clique, like John Murtha and Pete Visclosky. However, it's now expanding to take in a key Republican member on Appropriations - one who's in a tight battle for a promotion to the Senate and can't afford to get besmirched in any way. The House ethics panel is now looking at the links between Rep. Todd Tiahrt's donations and defense earmarks.

• NY-Sen-B: Rasmussen checks out the race that's suddenly on everyone's mind (and that doesn't even exist yet, although Harold Ford Jr. just took a monthlong leave of absence from Merrill Lynch to "explore" the race - I wonder if he'll be doing most of his recon by helicopter). They find numbers very similar to local pollsters Marist and Siena: Kirsten Gillibrand beats Ford, 48-23 (with a surprisingly large 10 for "some other," presumably Jonathan Tasini although maybe it's more just "anybody else, please"). Where Rasmussen parts ways with the other pollsters is Gillibrand's high favorables (and high knowns, period): they have her at 59/27.

• OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Take this with a bag of quick-melting rock salt, if you choose, as it's a poll commissioned by Ohio Right to Life and conducted by Republican pollster Wenzel Strategies. Still, the numbers clock in pretty close to what Rasmussen has been seeing lately. They see John Kasich with a 43-33 lead in the Governor's race, and Rob Portman up in the Senate race: 37-31 over Lee Fisher and 40-35 over Jennifer Brunner.

• MD-Gov: One more poll, and it actually shows a Democrat in reasonably good shape. Incumbent Gov. Martin O'Malley is up 9 points against the GOP's best possible offering, potential candidate ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich, 48-39, according to local pollster Gonzales Research. (Gonzales saw it an 11-point race last September.) O'Malley's approvals (46%) could use some improvement, but considering that Ehrlich hasn't sounded likely to get in (although he might be doing a rethink given last night's events), there are certainly many other races higher on the worry-about list.

• AL-05: If Rep. Parker Griffith thought he'd be welcomed with open arms into the Republican fold, well, he's got another thing coming. The only good news for him from last night's meeting of the Madison County (i.e. Huntsville) Republican Executive Committee was that, in the end, they decided not to attempt to get Griffith removed from the primary ballot as a Republican. The real question of the meeting, though, was whether it would be better strategy for Republicans to try to beat him in the primary or via an independent candidacy in November.

• AR-02: Democratic candidates who sound committed to running to replace retiring Rep. Vic Snyder are already piling up - and we haven't even gotten to Lt. Gov. Bill Halter or ex-Gen. Wesley Clark yet. State House Speaker Robbie Wills today stopped short of saying he's running, but says he's "excited" about running. State Sen. Joyce Elliott also sounds very likely to run, while Public Service Commissioner Paul Suskie is in the "seriously considering" stage.

• AZ-03: On the other side of the aisle and of the country, Republicans from the deep local bench are piling into the open seat race in the 3rd, vacated by Rep. John Shadegg. Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker is ending his long-shot gubernatorial campaign and heading over to the 3rd, and he's being joined by state Sen. Jim Waring (who's dropping his state Treasurer campaign to do so). They join already-in state Sen. Pamela Gorman and state Rep. Sam Crump.

• IL-10: State Rep. Julie Hamos and Dan Seals continue to split key endorsements in their primary fight for the Democratic nod in the open 10th. Hamos got the endorsements of both the Chicago Tribune and Sun-Times, while Seals picked up the smaller-circulation Daily Herald's endorsement.

• ND-AL: Add one more confirmed name to the list of GOPers sniffing out the at-large House seat in North Dakota, hoping John Hoeven's Senate bid gives them some coattails against the entrenched Democratic incumbent, Rep. Earl Pomeroy. Former House majority leader Rick Berg kicked off his campaign yesterday.

• TN-04: Rep. Lincoln Davis has been pretty much assured a bumpy ride, thanks to Tennessee's rapidly-reddening status. He got a new Republican challenger today, in the form of attorney Jack Bailey. It's unclear whether the never-before-elected Bailey will be stronger than physician Scott DesJarlais (or can even get past him in the primary), but he's a former Hill staffer (ex-CoS for Missouri Rep. Scott Akin) so he probably still has a full Rolodex for fundraising purposes.

• TN-08: State Sen. Roy Herron keeps looking like he'll have an easy path to the Democratic nomination to replace retiring Rep. John Tanner. Former state Rep. Phillip Pinion, an oft-floated name, said he wouldn't get into the race.

• OR-Init: Oregon voters have a chance to deal a major setback to the coalescing conventional wisdom that voters prefer service cuts to tax hikes to plug state budget gaps, with Measures 66 and 67. The state legislature passed raises in the $250,000-plus tax bracket and certain corporate income taxes, which are now subject to a people's veto (via an all-mail special election with a deadline of Jan. 26). Well-regarded local pollster Tim Hibbitts, paid for by a coalition of local media, finds both measures passing: 52-39 for 66 and 50-40 on 67.

• Mayors: One other election result from last night: Jefferson Co. Commissioner William Bell defeated attorney Patrick Cooper in a runoff, to become Birmingham, Alabama's new mayor, 54-46. Cooper had won the most votes in the general, but Bell seemed to consolidate previously-split African-American votes.

• Polltopia: One more interesting follow-up on the increasing democratization of polling (on the heels of yesterday's piece by Mark Blumenthal): the Hill looks at the increasing move by groups like Firedoglake and the PCCC toward commissioning polls - and even has an anecdote about PPP's Tom Jensen getting berated by a nameless Beltway person for broaching the unmentionable and polling potential alternatives to Harry Reid.

• Social media: At some point during the flurry of activity yesterday, Swing State Project shot past 1,000 Twitter followers (gaining more than 100 yesterday alone). Not a follower yet? Check us out. You can also receive SSP updates via Facebook, if you're one of those Luddites who like to read things that are longer than 140 characters.

CO-Gov, CO-Sen: Tossups For All in New R2K Poll (Updated)

by: James L.

Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 3:35 PM EST

John Hickenlooper (D): 43
Scott McInnis (R): 43
Undecided: 14

Ken Salazar (D): 42
Scott McInnis (R): 44
Undecided: 14

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40
Scott McInnis (R): 45
Undecided: 15

Ed Perlmutter (D): 38
Scott McInnis (R): 46
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±4%)

Most of those match-ups are moot at this point, as the path for the Democratic nomination seems secure for Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper. Sure, Andrew Romanoff may or may not bail on his Senate primary to take a crack at the gube race, but he'd have an even harder time in that race than he would against the newbie Bennet. Effectively, this resolves any potential doubt that Hickenlooper begins the race in the best starting position than any other Democrat out there -- even Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, who was briefly (and bizarrely, in my opinion) touted as the heir apparent for retiring Gov. Bill Ritter.

If anything, though, this poll also reaffirms that, while Hickenlooper probably would have won an '06 race with ease, he won't be able to rest on his laurels this year. This should be one hell of a race.

And for the Senate side of the equation:

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40
Jane Norton (R): 39
Undecided: 21

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 42
Tom Wiens (R): 38
Undecided: 20

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41
Ken Buck (R): 38
Undecided: 21

Andrew Romanoff (D): 39
Jane Norton (R): 41
Undecided: 20

Andrew Romanoff (D): 41
Tom Wiens (R): 39
Undecided: 20

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40
Ken Buck (R): 39
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4%)

This poll is actually the most optimistic portrait of the Senate race that we've seen lately. Over the weekend, Rasmussen gave us their take, which consisted of huge leads for Jane Norton and smaller leads for the other Republican pretenders. The Bennet campaign responded with their own poll, which showed Norton ahead by "only" three points. Whether or not R2K's likely voter sample is reasonable is up in the air. The poll purports to have a sample of 38% Republicans, 30% Democrats, and 32% independents. That's doesn't seem wild-eyed for a state with a slight Democratic voter registration advantage, but if you take a closer look at the "N" for each sub-sample, the math doesn't add up -- numerically, there are more Democratic voters listed as poll participants than Republicans. (In fact, if you recalculate, this might be a 40D-38R-22I poll.) Bennet's internal poll had a Republican advantage of about five points, so this is a pretty crucial issue to be resolved.

A transcription error is probably to blame here, but we'll let you know if we find out anything more definitive.

UPDATE: Research 2000 guru Del Ali writes to us to tell us that the actual sample of the poll is 40% Democratic, 37% Republican, and 23% independent. Somehow, I suspect that that may be an optimistic view of the 2010 electorate.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Gov | CO-Sen

CO-Sen: Bennet Down in Two New Polls (Including His Own)

by: James L.

Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 6:46 PM EST

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 37 (34)
Jane Norton (R): 49 (45)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 38 (41)
Tom Wiens (R): 44 (42)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 38
Ken Buck (R): 43

Andrew Romanoff (D): 35 (37)
Jane Norton (R): 47 (46)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 39 (40)
Tom Wiens (R): 44 (41)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 39 (39)
Ken Buck (R): 40 (41)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

In order to push back at the idea that Bennet is being swamped by Norton, his campaign released a recent internal poll of its own that shows Bennet... well, still down, but not as badly.

Harstad Strategic Research for Michael Bennet (January, likely voters):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40
Jane Norton (R): 43
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4%)

Harstad's poll isn't a pie in the sky look at the race; its partisan sample gives a 5-point edge to Republicans (despite Dems actually having a slight registration advantage in the state). Bennet's problem remains the same: few know him (his favorable rating his 29-27, compared to Norton's 23-17). The swapping of incumbent Gov. Bill Ritter for Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper will surely help Bennet with base turnout, but that alone probably won't be enough to get him past the finish line -- he'll need to lay out a convincing case that he deserves to keep his job.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Sen

SSP Daily Digest: 1/13

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jan 13, 2010 at 4:24 PM EST

• CO-Sen: Republican Senate candidate Jane Norton has finally realized that she might be her own worst enemy. Having reeled off a serious of gaffes and wtf? moments that were captured on tape in recent months (sitting silently while a speaker called Barack Obama a "Muslim," saying that Obama cares more about terrorists' rights than protecting the country, and just recently saying that government shouldn't be involved in health care at all), she's decided that, rather than stopping saying dumb things, the best approach is to have that nasty Democratic tracker banned from all her appearances.

• NY-Sen-B: Ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. has gotten a green light of sorts (or at least a shrug of the shoulders) from David Paterson regarding a primary challenge, who said it was "OK" but that he might look for a different state to do it in. A new piece in the NYT today (who seem to have been interested in promoting his candidacy) may do Ford more harm than good, filled with details of helicopter flights and chauffeured cars that help paint him as an out-of-touch Wall Streeter, not exactly a position you want to run from these days (maybe most damning: "He has breakfast most mornings at the Regency Hotel on Park Avenue, and he receives regular pedicures. (He described them as treatment for a foot condition.)" Ford also might need to explain to the electorate when he decided that Kirsten Gillibrand was no longer acceptable; it turns out that he gave her $1,000 just seven months ago. Finally, with Ford making clear that he's going to run against health care reform, and awash in a history of pro-life pronouncements, PPP's Tom Jensen looks at New York exit polls and finds a way for Ford to get to 25% in the primary, but wonders where that other 75% is going to come from.

• PA-Sen: The Joe Sestak candidacy continues to have its desired effect: Arlen Specter just changed his position on the Dawn Johnsen nomination, and will vote for her confirmation, taking it to 60 votes. One possible unintended consequence, though: the more Sestak succeeds at pushing Specter to the left, the less opportunity for differentiating himself in (and thus a basis for winning) the Democratic primary.

• TX-Sen, TX-Gov: We have dueling rumors coming out of Texas, regarding Kay Bailey Hutchison. Fox's El Paso affiliate is reporting that KBH no longer plans to resign her Senate seat, either before or after the Republican gubernatorial primary. However, a spokesperson from the KBH camp is now saying that report is wrong, and she will resign only when the health care and cap-and-trade debates are over.

• AZ-Gov: A serious primary challenge just hit Arizona Governor Jan Brewer in the eye, like a big pizza pie. State Treasurer Dean Martin put an end to the speculation and officially announced his candidacy today. (There's still no report on whether CA-41's Rep. Jerry Lewis will offer his endorsement, or if their feud is still continuing.) While Martin is the highest-profile GOPer to challenge Brewer so far, he'll still have to fight his way through a crowd of other anti-Brewers, perhaps most prominently former state party chair John Munger.

• CT-Gov: It looks like the Republican gubernatorial field in Connecticut will be limited to Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele, rich guy Tom Foley, and now Larry DeNardis, a 71-year-old who most recently was president of the University of New Haven, but served one term in the U.S. House, representing New Haven from 1980 to his defeat in 1982. (Little known bit of trivia: the guy DeNardis defeated in that House race? Joe Lieberman.) State Senate minority leader John McKinney (who previously demurred from a CT-04 run) just reversed course and said he wouldn't run; state House minority leader Lawrence Cafero, another potential candidate, also recently said 'no.'

• IA-Gov: Here's an iceberg on the horizon for the seemingly unsinkable Terry Branstad campaign: poor relations with the state's religious right, coming to a head now with the prominent Iowa Family PAC endorsing rival Bob Vander Plaats and having unkind words for the insufficiently conservative Branstad, whom they won't endorse for the general even if he is the nominee. (Discussion underway in desmoinesdem's diary.)

• MA-Gov: A day after PPP polled him as a Democratic fill-in for Deval Patrick in the gubernatorial race, SoS William Galvin said that, no, he wasn't planning on launching a primary challenge against Patrick. Galvin, who's been SoS since 1994, instead said he might be interested in moving to AG, assuming Martha Coakley becomes Senator.

• SC-Gov: Well, that was kind of anticlimactic. L'affaire Sanford wrapped up today with a quick censure vote of Gov. Mark Sanford that passed the state House by a 102-11 margin.

• FL-25: A longer CQ piece on the House landscape in Florida has an interesting tidbit that suggests that former Miami mayor Manny Diaz, who would have been a top-tier contender in the 25th had he run, won't be running. Diaz has taken a fellowship appointment at Harvard's JFK School, which would probably preclude a run. After Democrats running strong in all three Cuban-American districts in 2008, it looks like free passes will be handed out this year.

• MD-04: All previous indications had been that a primary challenge from the right against Rep. Donna Edwards was a go, but instead Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn Ivey had announced he won't pursue that. He'd also been linked with possible runs for county executive and state Senate, so his next step is uncertain.

• NC-08: PPP adds a little information from yesterday's poll of the 8th, which had freshman Rep. Larry Kissell comfortable against his GOP opposition. The possibility of a primary from the left, from attorney Chris Kouri, has been floated, but Kissell dispatches Kouri easily, 49-15. Only 29% of Democratic respondents in the district want Kissell replaced with someone more progressive, and 27% think Congressional Dems are too liberal vs. 12% who think they're too conservative, suggesting (in tandem with his general election strength) that his occasional breaks from the party line may be helping more than hurting him.

• NH-02: Gonna make you Swett! The long-rumored  candidacy by wealthy Lieberdem Katrina Swett may be finally getting off the ground, as an invitation to a Jan. 31 Swett event says "Come meet our next U.S. Congresswoman!"

• OH-02: After looking into the possibility of an independent run against Rep. Jean Schmidt and probably Dem nominee David Krikorian, now Surya Yalimanchili (aka that guy from "The Apprentice") says he'll get into the Democratic primary instead, saying that his focus on jobs and economic growth is better served there.

• SC-01: After renewed interest in the race following the retirement announcement of GOP Rep. Henry Brown, 2008 candidate Linda Ketner has finally decided against another run. She instead asked her supporters to take a look at Robert Burton, already an announced candidate. On the GOP side, state Sen. Larry Grooms, a frequent Mark Sanford nemesis, cut short his long-shot gubernatorial bid, boxed out by bigger names like Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and AG Henry McMaster. This might presage a run in the still-developing GOP field in the 1st, but he said that's "unlikely" and he'd rather concentrate on the state Senate.

• TX-04: Add one more serious teabagger primary challenge to the ever-growing list, this time a challenge in the super-dark-red 4th to long-time Rep. Ralph Hall. Jerry Ray Hall (no relation, apparently) is throwing $350K of his own money into race in the fast-approaching March primary. It's unclear what his beef with the conservative other Hall is (he was a Democrat until 2004 - albeit the most conservative one in the House -- so that's probably good enough).

• VA-11: Rep. Gerry Connolly (by virtue of his Dem-leaning suburban district) still seems the safest of the three Virginia freshman, but things got harder for him with the entry of another GOP challenger: Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity (who narrowly lost the race to become County Chairman after Connolly ascended to the House). Herrity still faces a primary against self-funding Keith Fimian, who lost big-time to Connolly in the open seat race in 2008 and won't get out of Herrity's way; Fimian may still be able to beat the better-known Herrity based on his big cash stash.

• WA-02: No one has really thought of Rep. Rick Larsen as vulnerable lately, as he dismantled his at-least-somewhat-touted Republican opponents in the last two elections in this D+3 district. Still, a long-time foe has taken a look at the more favorable Republican landscape and decided to take another whack at Larsen. John Koster (a state Rep. at the time) ran against Larsen and lost in 2000, when it was an open seat following Republican Rep. Jack Metcalf's retirement. Koster has spent most of the decade on the suburban Snohomish County Council (where he's currently the only Republican).

• Election results: A lot happened last night, most notably the upset victory by Democratic state Del. Dave Marsden in Virginia's state Senate district 37 by 317 votes, good for a pickup and a slightly bigger (22-18) Democratic edge in that chamber - which helps insulate against Bob McDonnell trying to Beshear the Dems back into the minority there. Also in Virginia, businessman Jeff McWaters held dark-red Senate district 8 for the GOP, defeating Democrat Bill Fleming by a 79-21 margin. Two other dark-red legislative districts (both made vacant because of Republican sex scandals) stayed in GOP hands, as California's AD-72 was held by Chris Norby, 63-31, and Tennessee's HD-83 was won 67-30 by Mark White. In New Hampshire, the field is now set in a potentially competitive general election to fill SD-16 on Feb. 16 (the swing district was vacated by GOPer Ted Gatsas, elected Manchester mayor). State Rep. David Boutin won the GOP nod; he'll face off against Dem state Rep. Jeff Goley. Dems can push up to a 15-9 edge with a pickup here.

Senate 2010 outlook

by: Nathaniel90

Thu Jan 07, 2010 at 7:47 PM EST

A continued Democratic majority in the Senate is all but assured after November (and is still quite likely in the House as well). The probable range, IMO, is a Democratic caucus in the 112th Senate of between 54 seats at the low end and 58 seats at the high end.

Read a race-by-race analysis (with pretty maps) below the fold...

CO-Gov: Hickenlooper Considering Race, But Will Defer to Salazar; Perlmutter Keeping Options Open

by: James L.

Wed Jan 06, 2010 at 7:39 PM EST

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper said this afternoon he would make a relatively quick decision about whether to run for Colorado governor but said that he would consider entering the race only if Ken Salazar didn't. [...]

"Ken Salazar is Ken Salazar. Should Ken Salazar decide to run I'd probably be his first volunteer," the popular Denver mayor said at a downtown press conference, surrounded by his family.

Hickenlooper praised Ritter for his "courage" in announcing earlier in the day that he wanted to devote more time and energy to his family and would abort his run for a second term, declaring that "this is Bill Ritter's day."

Will Salazar actually go for it? Well, there are enough rumblings to suggest that it's a distinct possibility. Salazar's brother, 3rd CD Rep. John Salazar, is on the record with words of encouragement for such a switch, and, for what it's worth, ColoradoPols is hearing that an "official decision is all but done". Salazar is staying mum on the question for now, but the Denver Post reports that he'll have the White House's permission to run if he so chooses.

Meanwhile, 7th CD Rep. Ed Perlmutter, who sounds pretty jacked now that Ritter is off the ballot, is not ruling out the possibility of a gubernatorial bid himself:

"This is a nightmare for the Republican party. This decision is a game changer, and I believe Colorado Democrats have a deep bench of potential candidates who can win this race. I am confident we will have a candidate who will present real solutions for Colorado instead of the Republicans who want to focus on the status quo by just saying no. We will retain this seat and continue to move our state forward and ensure Colorado remains one of the best states to live in.

"I am honored to have my name mentioned as a potential candidate. I love this state and I want to continue to serve my community and state and make it a great place to live for everybody. It's a premature decision to make at this time, but one I will carefully consider."

Hickenlooper is by far my first choice here, but Salazar appears to be salivating over the opportunity. We'll just have to stay tuned.

Swing State Project Changes Ratings on Ten Races

by: DavidNYC

Wed Dec 30, 2009 at 11:24 PM EST

• AR-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• AZ-Sen: Safe R to RTW
• CO-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• IA-Sen: RTW to Likely R
• IL-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• PA-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• TX-Sen: Likely R to RTW

• KS-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
• OR-Gov: Lean D to Likely D
• TX-Gov: RTW to Likely R

We'll be posting full write-ups for all of these changes soon. In the meantime, the end of the year seems like a good time to post our full ratings charts, especially given the number of changes we've just made.

Our Senate chart:

Races to Watch:

     AZ (McCain)
     CA (Boxer)
     HI (Inouye)
     ND (Dorgan)
     NY-B (Gillibrand)
     TX (Hutchison)
     UT (Bennett)
     WI (Feingold)

Our gubernatorial chart:

Races to Watch:

     AK (Parnell)
     IL (Quinn)
     NY (Paterson)
     UT (Herbert)

SSP Daily Digest: 12/24

by: James L.

Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 8:16 AM EST

• CO-Sen: Former GOP Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is looking to "channel" the passion of teabaggers who insist that Barack Obama is a baby-killing Muslim into a fearsome GOTV operation for her campaign against Sen. Michael Bennet. Sadly, this is no exaggeration.

• CT-Sen: In the wake of Joe Lieberman's nutfuckery in the healthcare reform process, a new CNN/Opinion Research poll shows that his standing has taken a big hit back home across the country -- his favorable rating is at 31-34, down from 40-28 two weeks earlier. (Update: Whoops; I didn't realize that this was a poll of "adult Americans", not Connecticut voters. That's not exactly as useful.)

• AL-05: Democrats have a pair of credible candidates giving consideration to a run against newborn GOP Rep. Parker Griffith. State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks has stated that he's thinking about switching from his gubernatorial bid over to a Congressional campaign. Another very appealing candidate is state PSC Commissioner Susan Parker, whose ties to the district are stronger than Sparks'. Parker says she's giving the race consideration, and will make an announcement after the holidays.

• MN-06: PPP has some up-ballot observations from their latest House poll. Namely, Norm Coleman and Mark Dayton are damaged goods.

• PA-10: It's looking more and more clear that John McCain and other national Republicans completely crumbed the play in their efforts to snag a second defection from the Democratic House ranks. Not only did they hand Carney a beautiful talking point ("Hey, John McCain thinks highly enough of me to ask me to join the GOP caucus!"), but they've also set the state Republican Party scrambling to disassociate themselves from the national play. The PA GOP says that they had no part in the recruitment effort, saying that they're looking for "real Republicans" to beat Carney. Meanwhile, Snyder County Commissioner Malcolm Derck, himself the only candidate of note in the GOP primary, called McCain's efforts "a slap in the face to all rank-and-file Republicans working to take back the seat". At least this is still excellent news... for John McCain!

• NY-State Sen: SSP data guru jeffmd takes a look at Obama's performance in each of New York's state Senate districts in an effort to answer the question: why does the GOP control so many seats?

• Judges: Retired Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor is leading a new campaign to eliminate the election of judges. (Good idea.)

SSP Daily Digest: 12/16

by: Crisitunity

Wed Dec 16, 2009 at 3:59 PM EST

• AZ-Sen: A new poll from Republican pollster the Tarrance Group (paid for by Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, presumably on John McCain's behalf, as it also did anti-J.D. Hayworth message testing) shows McCain faring much better in a potential Republican primary against ex-Rep. Hayworth than a Rasmussen poll did last month; they have McCain beating Hayworth 56-36, and with a 78/20 favorable. Also, Grant Woods, a former Arizona Attorney General (and more significantly, a former McCain chief of staff) filed an FEC complaint against Hayworth, accusing him of using his talk radio bullhorn to promote his potential candidacy.

• CO-Sen: Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is facing something of a teabagger deficit, having been ordained as the GOP establishment's candidate. But she's trying to make up for that with some red meat that pleasantly surprised members of the hard right she was appearing in front of: she advocated eliminating the Dept. of Education. (Actually, maybe that should be described as green meat, considering how long that moldy idea has been sitting on the shelf. Ask President Bob Dole how that one went over.)

• CT-Sen: Ralph Nader reiterated his interest to the Princeton University newspaper (his alma mater) in running as a Green in the Connecticut race, saying he's encouraged by the nation's anti-incumbent mood. The netroots' other least favorite person, Joe Lieberman, is heading the opposite direction: aware that any hope of winning a Democratic nomination in 2012 vaporized this week, he's now making noises about seeking the Republican nomination instead. One other 2010 note: Barack Obama plans to appear on NBC's "WWE Tribute to the Troops" special to deliver a tombstone piledriver to Linda McMahon. Ooops, actually, it looks like he's just delivering a holiday message to the troops.

• IL-Sen: It looks like all that pandering to the right wing is finally paying off for Rep. Mark Kirk; he got $5,000 from the Koch Industries PAC (Koch is one of the biggest funders of the right, including of operations like Freedom Works and the Cato Institute). It also got him a brief bit of praise from Sarah Palin via Twitter, after months of tugging at her sleeve for help. Erick Erickson still isn't buying what Kirk is selling, though, saying in his usual understated manner that Kirk "will knife [conservatives] in the chest with a smile once he gets to D.C."

• NV-Sen: This ought to just further rev up right-wingers who view former state GOP chair and former Miss New Jersey Sue Lowden as a RINO in the making. Turns out she claimed to be pro-choice when representing a Dem-leaning state Senate seat in the 1990s, while today she's claiming Roe v. Wade is a "bad decision." One more flip-flop that'll have to be dealt with, just like her previous support of Harry Reid.

• NY-Sen-B: Suffolk County Legislator Jon Cooper had been making noises about a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand for many months, but apparently a face-to-face meeting with her was more than satisfactory to him, and he came out of it with an effusive endorsement of Gillibrand instead. And while we discussed the possibility of a William Thompson primary yesterday on the front page, there were also some other numbers from yesterday's Siena and Quinnipiac polls. Quinnipiac tested out Rudy Giuliani numbers, and found that on the off chance he runs, he'd beat both Gillibrand (50-40) and Thompson (52-36). Siena went with a whole bunch of permutations, finding Gillibrand losing to Giuliani 49-42, but beating ex-Gov. George Pataki (46-43) and Port Commissioner Bruce Blakeman (52-22). Thompson loses to both Giuliani (56-34) and Pataki (49-36) but beats Blakeman (40-23). They even tried out an improbable-looking GOP primary, finding Giuliani at 57 and Pataki at 26, followed by ex-state Sen. Michael Balboni at 7, Liz Feld at 6, and Blakeman at 4.

• SD-Sen: John Thune can consider himself safe for next year. He beats a Generic Dem 56-33 (fitting, since no one is running against him yet), and has approvals of 57/35. The only cloud on his horizon is that his constituents don't want him to run for President, by a 28/55 margin.

• FL-Gov: Rasmussen threw in a Florida gubernatorial race general election question to their Senate race sample (which leads to the question: are there going to be Meek/Crist and Meek/Rubio numbers forthcoming?). They find that Republican AG Bill McCollum has a small lead over Democratic CFO Alex Sink, 44-39, but that Sink has more room to grow (24% have no opinion of Sink vs. 16% for McCollum).

• KS-Gov: That didn't last long: the Kansas Dems thought they finally had a decent gubernatorial candidate in retired businessman Tom Wiggans, but he just ended his infant campaign. He cited trouble fundraising, although recent bad press about a settlement by his pharmaceutical company probably helped prompt his move too.

• NY-Gov: That same Quinnipiac sample also took a look at the New York Governor's race, finding a la Siena, that the resurrection of David Paterson (from DOA to slightly less DOA) continues apace. They find Paterson beating Republican ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, 41-37, and with an approval of 40/49 and favorable of 38/44. Paterson shouldn't break out the champagne, though, as he still loses a primary to Andrew Cuomo, 60-23, and Cuomo goes on to beat Lazio 62-22.

• CT-05: The former occupant of the 5th, ex-Rep. Nancy Johnson, endorsed state Sen. Sam Caligiuri to try and take the seat back for the GOP. The awkward part is, Caligiuri's primary opponent Justin Bernier is still touting Johnson's endorsement of him too. Johnson said that she did in fact back Bernier -- up until the moment Caligiuri (her 2002 campaign co-chair) got into the race.

• FL-08: I'm a little confused here, because it seemed like the GOP was desperately casting about for any sort of elected official to go up against Rep. Alan Grayson for a long time, and finally settled on businessman Bruce O'Donoghue... but now that all that sturm and drang is over, state Rep. Kurt Kelly says he's likely to get into the race against Grayson. Kelly's name rarely appeared on the list of potential candidates, leaving me to wonder why the NRCC didn't express any interest in him and whether they'll continue to back O'Donoghue here.

• HI-01: Hawaii may try something new in the wake of the realization that it doesn't have the money to hold a special election to replace resigning Rep. Neil Abercrombie. Elections officer Kevin Cronin says that he can't fight that feeling anymore that Hawaii may have to follow the lead of the northwestern states and conduct an all mail-in ballot. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Ed Case isn't wasting any time; he's already hitting the airwaves with his first TV spot.

• KS-03: Despite party efforts to coalesce behind state Sen. Nick Jordan, we've definitely got a contested GOP primary in the open seat in the 3rd. State Rep. Kevin Yoder confirmed he's getting into the race.

• MD-01: What is this, the 80s? The NRCC is actually pulling out the "soft on crime" card as they road-test different lines of attack on freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil. Kratovil made his name as the Queen Anne's County state's attorney (and escaped previous "soft on crime" attacks last year in his first matchup against state Sen. Andy Harris), so they're trying to hit him on his strengths.

• NJ-07: One swing district with a freshman GOPer where the Dems have had no luck filling out their dance card is the wealthy suburban 7th. Without an elected officials interested in the race, Dems are looking at cumbersome-named Dem fundraiser Zenon Christodolou to go up against Rep. Leonard Lance.

• NY-23: A month after the fact, we finally have our official count from the special election in the 23rd (hence our finally calling our predictions contest!). Bill Owens got 73,137 votes (48.3%) to 69,553 (46.0%) for Doug Hoffman and 8,582 (5.7%) for Dede Scozzafava; the final count brought Hoffman a little closer.

• NC-08: With a lot of liberals feeling burned by freshman Rep. Larry Kissell's voting record since getting into the House, there's actually talk of a primary challenge happening. Chris Kouri, who ran for the seat in 2002 and surprised a better-known Dem in the primary before losing the general to Robin Hayes, is being courted by some in the district for another run. Kouri is the general counsel for the Lowe's Motor Speedway.

• PA-06: State Rep. Curt Schroder got an endorsement from a once-prominent conservative, ex-Rep. Bob Walker, a key Newt Gingrich henchman back in the day as well as an Elmer Fudd lookalike. Walker used to represent part of Chester County, much of which was contained in the 16th under the 1990s map. That didn't deter one more no-name Republican from getting in the already-crammed field: geologist Walt Hufford, who sits on the board of the Pennsylvania Environmental Council and plans to run as a moderate.

• TN-01: Get ready for Roe v. Davis, part III. Ex-Rep. David Davis, narrowly beaten by Rep. Phil Roe in a GOP primary in this dark-red district in 2008, says to Politico that he's "strongly leaning" toward another matchup.

• TN-06: State Sen. Jim Tracy has a slight problem that could hurt him in his GOP primary in the open seat race to succeed Bart Gordon: in the 1990-2002 time period, he voted in six Democratic primaries (Tennessee voters can crossover in primaries) and only two GOP primaries. Of course, Tracy offers the defense that, in that part of the state, there was nothing to vote for but Democrats back then, but that's more grist for the teabagger mill as other candidates (like Lou Ann Zelenik) seek to woo the hard right.

• Retirements: A little more followup on the retirements front, in the wake of our front-page post yesterday: Rick Boucher and Allen Boyd have now confirmed with party leaders that they, too, will be back for re-election next year. (No surprise on Boyd, as he's already hitting the airwaves in his primary fight.) Lincoln Davis also reaffirmed his commitment, saying he's "running come hell or high water," and also saying he's not worried about the specter of GOP-controlled redistricting in 2012, saying he can't be put "in any more conservative district." (SSP's crack team of redistricters may disagree with him on that one!)

• House: Nancy Pelosi seems to be getting fed up with the Senate in many ways, and one smart way she's fighting back is saying that the House won't be going first on the tough votes anymore, and that she'll act on potentially divisive issues like EFCA and immigration reform only after the Senate has hashed it out. She has to be concerned with shielding her most vulnerable members from voting on tough votes like HCR and cap and trade only to see the legislation head into purgatory in the Senate.

Rasmussen Reports, You Decide

by: DavidNYC

Sun Dec 13, 2009 at 10:02 PM EST

I personally think Rasmussen Reports has an axe to grind - their made-up way of reporting presidential favorables and their questionable non-electoral polls make me mistrustful. At the same time, we don't want to stick our heads in the sand, and 538.com's pollster ratings do indicate that Rasmussen seems to be interested in getting things right, at least as far as the horserace is concerned. So we've decided to package up the most recent Raz surveys and let 'em all at you in one blast.

CT-Sen (12/7, likely voters, 9/10 in parens):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 35 (39)
Rob Simmons (R): 48 (49)
Other: 7 (5)
Undecided: 11 (6)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 39 (42)
Peter Schiff (R): 40 (40)
Other: 8 (7)
Undecided: 14 (10)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 38
Linda McMahon (R): 43
Other: 8
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4.5%)

CO-Sen (12/8, likely voters, 9/15 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 37 (36)
Jane Norton (R): 46 (45)
Other: 8 (7)
Undecided: 8 (12)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41
Tom Wiens (R): 42
Other: 7
Undecided: 10

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 38
Ken Buck (R): 42
Other: 8
Undecided: 12

Andrew Romanoff (D): 34 (34)
Jane Norton (R): 45 (42)
Other: 7 (8)
Undecided: 15 (15)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40
Tom Wiens (R): 41
Other: 5
Undecided: 14

Andrew Romanoff (D): 39
Ken Buck (R): 41
Other: 6
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Sen (12/9, likely voters, 10/14 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 42 (41)
Mark Kirk (R): 39 (41)
Other: 3 (4)
Undecided: 14 (13)

Cheryle Jackson (D): 39 (39)
Mark Kirk (R): 42 (43)
Other: 4 (4)
Undecided: 15 (13)

David Hoffman (D): 38 (33)
Mark Kirk (R): 42 (43)
Other: 3 (8)
Undecided: 17 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Sen (12/9, likely voters, 9/14 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (40)
Sue Lowden (R): 49 (50)
Other: 6 (4)
Undecided: 3 (5)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (43)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 49 (50)
Other: 6 (4)
Undecided: 2 (3)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43
Sharron Angle (R): 47
Other: 7
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Sen (12/7, likely voters, 9/23 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 36 (40)
Rob Portman (R): 38 (41)
Other: 8 (6)
Undecided: 18 (14)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 33 (38)
Rob Portman (R): 40 (40)
Other: 7 (5)
Undecided: 20 (18)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Gov (12/7, likely voters,  9/23 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 39 (45)
Jon Kasich (R): 48 (46)
Other: 3 (3)
Undecided: 11 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

SC-Gov (12/2, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Rex (D): 33
Gresham Barrett (R): 39
Other: 7
Undecided: 21

Jim Rex (D): 36
Andre Bauer (R): 35
Other: 13
Undecided: 16

Jim Rex (D): 32
Henry McMaster (R): 39
Other: 10
Undecided: 19

Vincent Sheheen (D): 23
Gresham Barrett (R): 45
Other: 11
Undecided: 20

Vincent Sheheen (D): 29
Andre Bauer (R): 39
Other: 13
Undecided: 19

Vincent Sheheen (D): 26
Henry McMaster (R): 43
Other: 10
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4.5%)

For the final word, I'll turn things over to Jon Stewart. The ever-brights at Fox & Friends had some difficulty in retransmitting a misleadingly-worded (and dodgy) Rasmussen survey on global warming, leading Stewart to opine (at 1:50) that this poll had a margin of error of "monkey-fuck ridiculous":

Rasmussen Reports, you decide.