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You may remember all the baseline diaries I used to post here. Now that election day is only two days away, I have combined all my baseline diaries together so you can look at them while watching the returns come in. I did this with the Washington Primary in August and I thought it worked well. This diary goes on for awhile.
If swing state project has to crash on Nov. 2nd (God forbid,) you can still see my baseline diaries by going to my blog: http://frogandturtle.blogspot....
California Gubernatorial race baselines combining results from 2006 Attorney General election and 2008 Presidential election:
Dark Red: Whitman 70%+
Red: Whitman 56%-69%
Light Red: Whitman 50%-55%
Light Blue: Brown 50%-55%
Blue: Brown 56%-69%
Dark Blue: Brown 70%+
Regional breakdowns:
Bay Area:
Now for the Maryland Gubernatorial race which recently is going toward Martin O'Malley (D). It combines the results of the 2008 Presidential election with the 2006 Gubernatorial election results.
Dark Red=Ehlrich 70%+
Red=Ehlrich 60%-69%
Light Red=Ehlrich 50%-69%
Blue=O'Malley 60%-69%
Dark Blue= O'Malley 70%+
For a clearer map: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q...
County name O'Malley Ehlrich Other
Alleghany 32% 67% 1%
Anne Arundel 38% 61% 1%
Baltimore County 46% 53% 1%
Balitmore City 73% 26% 1%
Calvert 36% 63% 1%
Caroline 27% 72% 1%
Carrol 23% 76% 1%
Cecil 34% 65% 1%
Charles 49% 50% 1%
Dorcester 33% 66% 1%
Frederick 36% 63% 1%
Garrett 22% 77% 1%
Harford 30% 69% 1%
Howard 48% 51% 1%
Kent 39% 60% 1%
Montgomery 60% 39% 1%
Prince George's 76% 23% 1%
Queen Anne's 26% 73% 1%
Somerset 36% 63% 1%
St. Mary's 33% 66% 1%
Talbot 32% 67% 1%
Washington 32% 67% 1%
Wicomico 34% 65% 1%
Worcester 30% 69% 1%
Now for the Oregon Gubernatorial race with a combination of the 2008 Presidential election and the 1998 Gubernatorial race with John Kitzhaber.
Dark Blue: Kitzhaber 50%+
Blue: Kitzhaber 50%-59%
Light Red: Dudley 50%-59%
Red: Dudley 60%-69%
Dark Red: Dudley 70%+
A clearer map: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q...
Counties Kitzhaber Dudley
Baker 32% 68%
Benton 57% 43%
Clackamas 48% 52%
Clatsop 54% 46%
Columbia 50% 50%
Coos 43% 57%
Crook 32% 68%
Curry 39% 61%
Deschutes 42% 58%
Douglas 36% 64%
Gilliam 43% 57%
Grant 27% 73%
Harney 26% 74%
Hood River 55% 45%
Jackson 44% 56%
Jefferson 42% 58%
Josephine 35% 65%
Klamath 29% 71%
Lake 26% 74%
Lane 56% 44%
Lincoln 54% 46%
Linn 40% 60%
Malheur 25% 75%
Marion 46% 54%
Morrow 40% 60%
Multnomah 66% 34%
Polk 45% 55%
Sherman 40% 60%
Tillamook 51% 49%
Umatilla 40% 60%
Union 38% 62%
Wallowa 33% 67%
Wasco 50% 50%
Washington 52% 48%
Wheeler 34% 66%
Yamhill 44% 56%
Now for Washington Senate combining results from the 2008 Presidential election, 2004 Senatorial race and 2004 Gubernatorial race.
Dark Red: Rossi 65% +
Red: Rossi 55%-64%
Light Red: Rossi 50%-54%
Light Blue: Murray 50%-54%
Blue: Murray 55%-64%
Dark Blue: Murray 65%+
Here is a better quality map of Washington: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q...
List of counties:
County Names Murray Rossi Percentages
Adams 853 2,305 27%-73%
Asotin 2,416 3,941 38%-62%
Benton 14,301 33,369 30%-70%
Chelan 7,568 13,337 36%-64%
Clallam 11,142 13,896 45%-55%
Clark 53,080 66,470 44%-56%
Columbia 415 1,052 28%-72%
Cowlitz 14,377 15,206 49%-51%
Douglas 3,178 6,754 32%-68%
Ferry 848 1,450 37%-63%
Franklin 4,027 8,839 31%-69%
Garfield 237 655 27%-73%
Grant 5,226 12,735 29%-71%
Grays Harbor 9,580 9,390 51%-49%
Island 12,414 14,990 45%-55%
Jefferson 7,690 5,389 59%-41%
King 366,136 236,061 61%-39%
Kitsap 39,653 41,604 49%-51%
Kittitas 4,545 7,140 39%-61%
Klickitat 2,821 3,785 43%-57%
Lewis 7,251 15,478 32%-68%
Lincoln 1,152 2,753 30%-70%
Mason 8,840 9,692 48%-52%
Okanogan 4,173 6,879 38%-62%
Pacific 3,672 3,513 51%-49%
Pend Oreille 1,640 2,653 38%-62%
Pierce 103,807 111,561 48%-52%
San Juan 4,245 2,635 62%-38%
Skagit 16,819 19,745 46%-54%
Skamina 1,634 1,934 46%-54%
Snohomish 104,923 104,505 50%-50%
Spokane 61,628 82,026 43%-57%
Stevens 4,904 9,780 33%-67%
Thurston 44,051 38,752 53%-47%
Wahkiakum 672 825 45%-55%
Walla Walla 5,805 10,365 36%-64%
Whatcom 33,054 32,530 50%-50%
Whitman 4,984 6,448 44%-56%
Yakima 17,919 31,310 36%-64%
Total 991,680 991,752 50%-50%
Here is how the baselines break down regionally:
Seattle & Vicinity
Counties Murray Rossi
King 366,136 236,061 61%-39%
Snohomish 104,923 104,505 50%-50%
Pierce 103,807 111,561 48%-52%
Kitsap 39,653 41,604 49%-51%
Thurston 44,051 38,752 53%-47%
Total 658,570 532,483 55%-45%
Coastal Washington Murray Rossi
Whatcom 33,054 32,530 50%-50%
Skagit 16,819 19,745 46%-54%
San Juan 4,245 2,635 62%-38%
Island 12,414 14,990 45%-55%
Clallam 11,142 13,896 45%-55%
Jefferson 7,690 5,389 59%-41%
Mason 8,840 9,692 48%-52%
Grays Harbor 9,580 9,390 51%-49%
Pacific 3,672 3,513 51%-49%
Lewis 7,251 15,478 32%-68%
Wahkiakum 672 825 45%-55%
Cowlitz 14,377 15,206 49%-51%
Clark 53,080 66,470 44%-56%
Skamina 1,634 1,934 46%-54%
Total 184,470 211,693 47%-53%
Rest of the State
Murray Rossi
Total 148,640 247,576 38%-62%
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