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IN-07, MA-05--a couple of questions

by: mikeel

Thu Oct 11, 2007 at 10:00 PM EDT


1.  MA-05, has there been any recent polling, public or private?  It would be great to get a poll result just before the election.

2. IN-07, has Julia Carson got a primary opponent yet?  I don't like primary challenges
as a rule, as most of them are destructive.  But one here might be for the best.

Charlie Cook has downgraded IN-07 to Likely Democratic, based on Carson's likely decision to seek reelection.  He also seems to think Dem turnout will be down to dissatisfaction with Congress' inability to end the Iraq war.
mikeel :: IN-07, MA-05--a couple of questions
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IN-07, MA-05--a couple of questions | 19 comments
MA-05
I've heard rumors--but seen no numbers--from both camps that Tsongas is under 50 and leading by only single digits.
I doubt that's true
If it were going to be close enough to give more hope for a Republican upset, I'd expect Ogo to wave the poll around and say "Donate to me, I can win!" 

But with heat from the SCHIP override vote, and Bill Clinton taking a trip over there, I doubt we'd lose it now. 

[ Parent ]
survey usa has a poll
with caveats of course, see my post below. 

http://www.surveyusa...

oh and i checked the tx-23 poll, it had bonilla at 51-47, not 54, a percentage similar to the ma-05.  read into it what you will

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
special elections are nearly impossible to predict
prior to the special election for tx-23 back in december, a survey usa poll showed bonilla leading with 54% of the vote, he lost by that amount.  democrats thought they had a chance in ga-10, then were shutout.  then in the runoff, the heavily favored whitehead lost (narrowly) to broun.  with very low turnout special elections are basically a crapshoot.  that's one of the reasons why republicans might have a chance here, and dems might have a chance in oh-10.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
You mean
OH-05 and VA-01
[ Parent ]
yeah on OH-05, but even with low turnout, i doubt va-01 will be in our range


Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Here's my take
Ohio is a state where both Republicans and Democrats invested in for the presidential race.  Bush won 61% of the vote. 

Virginia was less of a purple state in 2004, and I would be suprised if Kerry came close to matching Bush in spending here.  Bush won 60% here. 

See what I'm getting at?  We've seen popular Dem's carry a significant portion of the vote in that district for statewide races, so if we got a strong Dem candidate, and invested the money for organization, etc. We could pull an upset there. 

I haven't seen numbers for popular Dems and how well they have done in OH-05.  But Kaine and Webb both got around 45% in the district. 

[ Parent ]
You can't possibly compare
A Presidential race to a special election. The turnout models are competely skewered. I mean completely--there is very little to no correlation between a turnout model for a district in the middle of a Presidential race and a turnout model for a district in an off-year special election.

Not only has VA-01 not been seriously challenged in the past, but the General Assembly elections taking place within the district right now are, for the large part, not being seriously challenged. It is a Republican district, and I would be very surprised if the eventual Democratic nominee matched Kaine and Webb's performance.

[ Parent ]
VA-01
is actually less Republican than MA-05 is Democratic. 
[ Parent ]
But the timing here
The nominee could easily use Mark Warner to help campaign and boost the voter turnout for a special election. 
[ Parent ]
Maybe.
Mark Warner didn't win VA 01 when he ran for Governor in 2001 (he lost 49%-51%) and he only got 42% in the district when he ran for Senate in 1996. It might boost turnout for Democrats, but Republican turnout could also easily be boosted by Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, or even a Presidential candidate.
[ Parent ]
which presidential candidate?
they have pretty busy schedules, and i doubt if they can all spare the time to help out, even though it will show good faith for the party regulars.  there's a reason Hillary always sends Bill to these things.  a second or third tier candidate maybe, and of course Gilmore (i know, he's no longer a candidate).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I don't know.
I doubt the second-tier candidates like Brownback or Huckabee would want to deviate from their Iowa and NH schedules, and they wouldn't have much of an impact. But someone based out of D.C., like McCain, or Northern Virginia, like Thompson (lives in McClean, VA) could drive an hour down to Fredericksburg and host an event.
[ Parent ]
Forcing presidential candidates to appear would be
a moral victory.  I never said they won the region, they pulled a significant number of people out to vote, to have a strong showing for such a conservative district.  If they could help raise voter turnout for Democrats, and make this race competitive, that would only add to the NRCC's woes. 
[ Parent ]
IN-7
No primary challenge, but I would be very, very surprised if we don't see one. At the same time, I would give even odds she pulls out of the race before next year's election. The danger, of course, is that by doing so she leaves us without a candidate early next summer.

Come visit us over at Blue Indiana.
Agreed
I think there are at least even odds that Julia re-considers.  She was in the hospital again recently, the Indianapolis Star (which has had a contentious but usually fair relationship with her) just explicitly called on her to retire.  There are several people on both sides who are sort-of playing a waiting game right now -- the interesting thing is that no major Republicans have stepped up and said they are in.  As soon as that happens, I think the pressure on her to not run will really increase.  On our side, one name I her mentioned here and there is State Rep. Carolene Mays,
[ Parent ]
If Dem turnout is down in 2008
won't it be impossible for Hillary to win?
Depends. If she carries all the states Kerry did
Which I would say is very likely, she just needs to pick up a couple more.  She'll be better funded than Kerry, as the Republican will be less funded than Bush. 

Realistically, any top tier Democrat should win against any top tier Republican. 

[ Parent ]
Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling not running in VA 01
IN-07, MA-05--a couple of questions | 19 comments

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