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Canadian Election Results Thread #2

by: jeffmd

Mon May 02, 2011 at 11:54 PM EDT


12:00am: SSP is gonna wrap it up for tonight.  The implosion of the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois were quite remarkable...as was the vote splitting that allowed Harper to grab his majority.
11:51pm: The NDP may have done well in Quebec, but it didn't do so hot in the Prairies.  Aside from Edmonton-Strathcona, the NDP was shut-out in the Saskatchewan and Alberta; the NDP lost two in Manitoba, one each to the Grits/Tories.

RESULTS: Elections Canada | CBC | Globe & Mail
jeffmd :: Canadian Election Results Thread #2
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Canadian Election Results Thread #2 | 212 comments
A new BQ riding is in play
Now leading in Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Becancour by ~10 votes

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
Cardinal Richelieu is a real person?
Ha, couldn't resist the reference.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Of course Cardinal Richelieu was a real person
[ Parent ]
Ooops, forgot.
It's been ages since my AP European History class.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Richmond-Arthabaska is actually looking good for BQ
94% reporting and up by 628 votes.

Ahuntsic, Bas-Richelieu and Montmorency-etc are anyone's game.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Look at the Yukon, Cons winning, but...
Libs 32, NDP 18, Greens 15

It's like they are trying to let the Conservative win... with just over 1/3 of the vote.

Top two or instant runoff needs to happen, someday.

Conservatives winning the Yukon?
Oh boy. That's a blow.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
And won by a the biggest draft bust in NFL history

[ Parent ]
I was going to make a joke about Ryan Leaf
But sure enough, it is Ryan Leef! hahah

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
Probably one of the few seats they won based on the gun registy
They had been hoping to take a lot of seats based on the all the Liberals and most of the NDP voting to retain the federal gun registry. This and Sault Ste Marie (which they took from the NDP) looks like the only ridings where that worked...although they kept a bunch of vulnerable seats where that probably helped them somewhat
[ Parent ]
Politically, Yukon kind of seems like the illegitimate love child...
Of Alaska and Vermont.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Elizabeth May elected.

Now she can be ignored officially
instead of unofficially

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
She'll be able to be part of the leaders' debate next time
That is a huge plus for the Greens
[ Parent ]
Wonder
Wonder how different some of the results would be in the various provinces if the national election and the provincial elections were held at the same time. For example, in Quebec, would the Parti Quebecois have collapsed like the Bloc? Would the Parti have helped the Bloc?

And the CBC person made the comment that the NDP may have too many new people that it falls flat as the official opposition. Like the Republicans here, they performed too well and managed to elect their Allen Wests.

You have to wonder
Are those new NDPers former separatists? Tell that to Johnny NDP Voter in Sudbury or Windsor, and a potential disaster is brewing.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
Probably not separatists
From what I've heard north of the border, the NDP frosh are a mix of union, student, and native activists. Many may prove to be not-prime-time material, but prolly no BQ pasts...

27, Democratic, IL-01
[ Parent ]
The leadership will need to be very judicious with the party list...
In the next election.

If any MPs prove to be unready for prime time, or if they cross the line, they're done.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Its not all bad
A young man named Jean Charest, then 24, was elected in the Tory wave in 1984. He of course came within a 100 votes at the PC convention in 1993 of becoming Prime Minister, and of course we know what happened afterwards.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Quebec
He's now Premier of Quebec isn't he.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
So some paper candidates turn out alright. Others turn out to be white supremacists.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Saanich-Gulf Islands
Elizabeth May's election is confirmed. The CBC says that means she gets to be in the next set of debates.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
Iggy's
gone. With all but 79 polls in he hasn't closed the gap.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Unbelievable
No one was expecting that.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
What's
up with party leaders taking so long to get to the podium here in Canada? Elizabeth May is taking her sweet time to give her speech.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Scraaaaatch
that.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
What time does the transition to Dkos Elections happen?


Male, VA-08
I was gonna do it at midnight
But that obviously won't work. So some time overnight when things die down here. Just head there tomorrow morning for the new digest.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I thought we might turn into a pumpkin

[ Parent ]
I've shut off new user signups
And new diaries. Comments still active. I feel like I'm shutting down HAL.

"I can't let you do that, Dave."

[ Parent ]
"Disengage this computer now"
said Kirk (WAV).

(I only remember the quote because it was part of an audio package my dad had on an ancient Mac in the early 90s).

[ Parent ]
I find it fascinating
that the NDP keeps getting shut out of Saskatchewan, which is the birthplace of the NDP (albeit, Jack Layton's NDP is very different from Tommy Douglas').
If not for FTTP...
They'd be holding their own in Sask.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
2003
In 2003 Saskatchewan elected an NDP govt (assembly and premier). They lost power in 2007.

I think it's kind of like here in the U.S. Local parties can sometimes have more success than their federal counterparts.

[ Parent ]
Continuing on the theme of FPTP and Sask.
Saskatchewan and PEI are the only provinces that didn't elect an NDP MP. At the same time, Saskatchewan had the third highest province-wide NDP vote total in the low 30s, after Quebec and BC.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
You can thank former NDP MP Dick Proctor
He basically whined enough to get himself a winnable seat, so the provincial party split Regina and Saskatoon each into 4 "rurban" ridings, containing a 1/4th of their city, a big suburb, and the sea of blue everywhere else.

In this election, there were 3 seats that the NDP were around 3% away from winning in SK, and they finished 2nd in every seat except Wascana (which is a 'Ralph Goodale' seat, rather than a Liberal one, according to some).

Too bad the Saskatchewan Party have the keys to the province, and right now Saskatchewan is doing the best of any Province in Canada. Great, that.

[ Parent ]
Etobicoke Centre
Wrzesnewskyj is now up 14 votes over Opitz with 13 of 238 precincts to go. His name would be worth 41 points in Scrabble.  

41, Ind, CA-05
Someone give that man a leadership position.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Will he have a choice?
It's like that Republican in Hawaii.
[ Parent ]
Ouch
These guys were the government just five years ago.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
BQ is up to two
They won Richmond-Arthabaska.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
They're also looking very likely to win Bas-Richelieu
on the flipside, Montmorency-etc is looking lost for them, while Ahuntsic is still competitive. Looking like 3-4 seats for BQ. Now they know how that Republican state senator in Hawaii feels.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Ahunstic is a huge upset for the BQ
The assumption all along was that the rise in the NDP vote would guarantee that the Bloc couldn't win Ahunstic, that the "ethnic" vote would stick with the Liberals (about 40% of the riding is immigrant), and that the Bloc and the NDP would split the French vote.

The fact that it looks like one of the 4 remaining Bloc MPs will come from a ethnically diverse, anti-separatist riding in Montreal is pretty funny -- a real comment on the issues with the FPTP system.

[ Parent ]
Well, that's exactly what happened...
Except for the Bloc not winning part.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Bye bye
Iggy. CBC just projected he's been defeated. Hey, Harvard can take him back now!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Wow
Elizabeth May is not a good television speaker. (I've noticed that as a trend in Canadian politicos tonight.)

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
I'm just listening to audio
From what I heard, I wouldn't exactly call her speaking style conventional, but I liked it.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
The audio might not have been as bad
Her gestures and facial expressions were too broad for television.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
She certainly is...
...not telegenic. Yeeouch.
[ Parent ]
Typical in parliamentary systems
Have you ever watched the coverage of British elections? Everytime someone wins in East Featherstead/Schoolyard/Valley Easy riding, the winning candidate comes on and gives a speech that focuses on thanking their local riding association, acknowledging their opponents, and speaking fairly uninspiringly with discussing issues.

May continued in that tradition. Only Layton and Harper gave national speeches -- everyone else was a traditional MP winning speech.  

[ Parent ]
Didn't have a chance to watch
In Canada, do they have those giant cool-looking badges that the candidates wear when the results are announced?

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
Stupid questions here, but here goes
1) Am I right in assuming that the "Grits" are the Liberals? and 2) Why are they called that?

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8
Because they're mushy...
And they're getting devoured by conservatives.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
For all good answers
We turn to wikipedia:

The Liberals are descended from the mid-19th century Reformers who agitated for responsible government throughout British North America. These included George Brown, Robert Baldwin, William Lyon Mackenzie and the Clear Grits in Upper Canada, Joseph Howe in Nova Scotia, and the Patriotes and Rouges in Lower Canada led by figures such as Louis-Joseph Papineau. The Clear Grits and Parti rouge sometimes functioned as a united bloc in the legislature of the Province of Canada beginning in 1854, and a united Liberal Party combining both English and French Canadian members was formed in 1861.

[ Parent ]
Named after the "Clear Grits" of SW Ontario from the 1840s
Think of them as the Canadian Jacksonians; they were largely farmers who moved west and moved to democratize Ontario with universal male suffrage, etc.

Remember the settled west of the US at the time was Ohio/Indiana/Illinois, so they're of the same time and era just across the Great Lakes.  

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
Such a great nickname
Too bad it belongs to such a now-feeble party. Wish we had a cool nickname like that!
[ Parent ]
1) Yes and 2)
Wikipedia.

Basically, a predecessor group went by "Grits", connoting tenacity.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
Psychological talking point
The NDP needs to get to 100 seats to keep some of the talk about the collapse of the Libs and Bloc, rather than "Conservatives kick ass and form majority".
61%
of the NDP caucus will now come from Quebec. Damn.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
That shouldn't be an issue
they won in 98 and are leading in 5.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Riding by Riding projects they win 103 seats
I think the biggest storylines here will be, roughly in order:

1. Conservatives get majority.
2. Bloc implodes completely.
3. NDP surpasses Liberals as official opposition by large margin.

If the NDP gets triple digits, that's definitely good press, but either way, people will be talking about it, and either way, people will be talking about Prime Minister Harper and the demise of the Bloc Quebecois more.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
If the Bloc imploding is a big story
That's probably a good thing for the NDP. They could get some credit as "the party that slew the Bloc" in anglophone Canada. Might help balance out some of the Quebec-heaviness of their caucus.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
98, with 6 more leading
it's looking pretty good for the NDP.  Still can't believe the Bloc is looking at 3 seats.
[ Parent ]
Open question
What was the most surprising result of the night? I'm guessing it's Ignatieff losing his own riding, which I don't think anyone really predicted.  

Male, VA-08
Not exactly what your asking but...
The 308 guy (and Nanos) wwas not far off on the BQ percentage... but completely missed that a bit over 6% was good for maybe three seats, not 27.
[ Parent ]
Another blow for BQ
Montmorency-etc called for NDP.

Of the two uncalled but competitive ridings, Bas-Richelieu is likely to go for the BQ, while Ahuntsic is still a toss-up.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Serious need for instant run-off voting

No kidding.
Did Harper even get 40% ?
[ Parent ]
Just under
Right now just under 40%.

39.68%

[ Parent ]
You know who else got a % between 39 and 40 that rounded up?
Charles Djou.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Not IRV
The discussion of electoral reform in Canada focuses on a form of modified proportional representation -- basically involves still electing members in individual ridings, and then supplementing those members based on using add-on members to better reflect the popular vote.

Sadly, a Conservative majority makes electoral reform DOA in the next Parliament.  

[ Parent ]
One new NDP MP is a college student!
Via Matt Yglesias:

Matthew Dubé
Chambly--Borduas - Quebec

Matthew was born in Montreal.

He has been president of the Quebec Young New Democrats since November 2010, and co-president of NDP McGill since September 2010.

Matthew coached junior-league soccer and hockey for many years.

He is finishing a BA in Political Science with a minor in History.

Link: http://matthewdube.ndp.ca/

A bunch of university students won in Quebec
In Sherbrooke, in a number of ridings around Montreal. I think there were about 4 or 5 NDP university students who ended up getting elected by accident.  
[ Parent ]
That has to be
EXCELLENT for one's resume.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
And there it is...
the Tories just had their 155th riding officially called for them.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Wasn't Prince George-Peace River in BC considered a potential NDP pickup?
The Tories romped there, 62-26. (amusingly the Tory is named Bob Zimmer, which is also the name of the president of the University of Chicago)  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
I'm baffled by how strongly the Tories run in British Columbia
The Pacific Northwest is not a great place to be a Republican in the United States.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Well
the Tories are closer to blue dog Democrats if anything. Hell a Canadian reporter mentioned after the attempt on Gifford's life back in January she would be a Tory if she was in Canada.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Yes, because Tories support universal healthcare, financial regulation...
And gay rights.

Reps. Ross, Boren, Matheson, Shuler, and Kissell would be Tories in Canada. Rep. Giffords would be a Liberal.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Some Do
The Gay rights supporters in the Tory party were overwhelmingly represented in the BC and Quebec incumbents who lost(Cannon, Vernier, Cadman, Manning, Prentice retired). This is not only a larger caucus but a more Conservative one, and I am unsure how Harper balances things. He really needed to convince Lorne Mayencourt to run again in Vancouver Center. He would have won this year, and Harper could have appointed a Gay cabinet Minister.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but Tory does not equal Republican


30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
Not really
Conservative candidate got 63% in 2008, I don't think anythone thought there was a possibility of a pickup.

Radical or something, WA-07
[ Parent ]
Ruth-Ellen Brosseau
We may have our Allen West!

I guess she doesn't speak much French and is a bartender at a restaurant, yet now represents a formerly staunch Bloc seat in Quebec.

She also wins my award as hottest MP.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

She was the one who vacationed in Las Vegas.
And I'll bet she turned a good deal of heads there.  :3
http://ruthellenbrosseau.ndp.ca/

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
How did she get the nomination?
I thought they had top-down party control of candidacies, and could presumably weed out obviously unqualified/unsuitable people.  Unless they were going for the purported hotness factor.

(Speaking of, I don't want to be negative, but I only hope she learns to smile somewhat naturally if she wants to continue in public office.  It's done wonders for the POTUS.)

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
It wasn't a winnable seat
The NDP had one seat in Quebec prior to this year, and they only won that in a by-election. They were shooting for 4-5, and did not bother with nominations in the rest of the seats. They went to whoever was interested.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
It wasn't even "whoever was interested"
in a few cases it involved simply finding a name who was willing to be put on the ballot. The nominations weren't contested, they went begging (in a few instances) to be filled.

That said, the vast majority of the new NDP members from Quebec are actually relatively serious folks -- local community activists, non-profit leaders, etc. People will be surprised by their capacity

[ Parent ]
heh
I think Blake Farenthold (party animal) is a better comparison than West (crazy bastard).  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
a


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I know what you're trying to do here
And it won't work. :)
[ Parent ]
I was just surprised the comments are still working.
And I can't post anything on DKE yet, anyways, so I figured, what the hell...

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
This is the last gasp
The only way I could shut off comments without making them disappear from the site was to close commenting on all posts older than X days, where 1 was the smallest possible value for X. So there's a tiny dying ember here, which will gutter out later tonight. :)

But how many times did I exhort you to create an account at DK? I warned this would happen! :)

[ Parent ]
I'm lazy, so now I get what I deserve
I got around to setting it up yesterday, but something was wrong either with the site or my gmail account, and I ended up not getting the account activation email for DKos until this morning.

Luckily, nothing's going on in Indiana other than a bunch of boring municipal primaries and things like that. Even if anything interesting does happen (maybe the South Bend mayoral primary, or Indianapolis), I can always just write something about it tomorrow.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Theme of the next 4 years
60% of Canadians voted for something different.
Layton Speaking

Hey!
It's old Paul Newman!

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
He seems like a much better speaker than the other leaders
Also, he's being very conciliatory towards the Liberals, which is probably a smart move on his part.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
No kidding
I know it was partially because he lost, but watching Iggy speak was painful. Layton sure knows how to work a crowd.
[ Parent ]
I got a little faint when Layton mentioned that Canadians had today voted for better healthcare
Then waited a beat and then added "PUBLIC healthcare!"

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Ganja break in Etobicoke Center?
The Grit with the last name I wont even try to spell has a 14 vote lead over the Tory with 13 polls left; been like that for a while now

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
25
He's up 25 now with 5 precincts left. Races like that can remind people that one vote can indeed make a difference.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Bas-Richelieu called for BQ
they now have 3 seats with a shot at a fourth (Ahuntsic).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Which means
They would actually be helped by a proportional representation system. They got 6% of the total vote.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
which is a real switch for them
they used to win 65% of Quebec's seats based on getting 38% of the vote.
[ Parent ]
Layton's congratulations for May
was one of his biggest applause lines so far.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
Yukon not looking great for NDP
Western Arctic seems like a hold, though. So the NDP just needs to win one more seat to get to 100.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Lib Seat
It's a Lib-held riding.
[ Parent ]
Oops, thanks.
I don't know why I said NDP since the Lib is in 2nd for Yukon, lol.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
From Twitter:
Nate Silver: "Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff lost his own riding. Maybe Democrats can recruit him to run against Scott Brown?"

Can you imagine?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

LOL
Hilarious.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
Hilarious until somebody actually polls it
Grasping at straws...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Hey
at least Ignatieff can say he voted for John Kerry!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Is he an American citizen?
Googling that comes up with conflicting answers.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
I guess
a Tory ad attacked Iggy for saying he was voting in the 2004 presidential election. Plus almost every Tory attack ad focusing on the Liberals ended with a shot of Iggy coming down from a plane to cheering supporters saying, "Ignantiff, he didn't come back for you."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I know he lived here for a long time
But did he actually get citizenship? Some websites seem to say that he was just on a visa and that he was just supporting Kerry even though he couldn't vote for him, but others say he was a citizen. As for those Tory ads, I never put much faith in the truthfulness of political attack ads.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
He is not a US citizen
The Conservatives circulated rumours that he was a dual national American/Canadian, but he never became a US citizen/

They tried to twist a statement he made in support of Kerry in 2004 into claiming that he said he had voted for him (he actually said he would have voted for Kerry)-- but records showed that Ignatieff never voted in a US election, and he is not a US citizen

[ Parent ]
BQ
back in the lead in Ahuntsic.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
lol
a radio ad just came on for Iggy's Doughboys. How appropriate.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
So this is it for SSP....
Hate to distract from the Canadian election, but it's hard to believe this is the last thread of the last night at the old green URL. Lots of fond memories here, if you can consider commenting on a blog as a "fond memory." I thank the FP'ers for all the hard work and wish y'all the best of luck at the new digs!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
Thank you
MassGOP. I'm sure you guys at RRH are celebrating the Tories finally capturing that elusive majority tonight.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Hope you give it a chance over at DKE
It'd be a pity not to get your commentary over there. Cheers.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Agreed
I've had my ups and downs at DK (I was a state Hillary delegate after all) but I would really hate to see a lot of the thoughtful non-leftie commentary leave the site.

You guys are doing a great job over at RRH, and I'm glad I now have two places to geek-out electorally, but I hope at least a few of you will swing by every now and then :)

If not, cheers, and best wishes .

24, SSP Gay Caucus Policy Committee Chair, Western Democrat; CO-05 (home), CA-14 (law school)

[ Parent ]
Gosh, really
I am really gonna miss the green, and the spirit, and the layout of the site. Hope people move over, especially you conservatives!

But I guess orange is the new color in the elections blogosphere and in Canada!

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
Yep
Gonna miss this place.  I'll try posting over at the Great Orange Satan, but I did prefer having this site be separate.  I do worry about SSP losing it's 'feel' and brand.  But I'll give it a go - see how it goes.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
61% turnout considered low
Damn, I wish that was the case on this side of the 49th.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
Sad
Isn't that about what we hit in 2008?

Still, in such a big country it must be broken down into region; Obviously Minnesota and the Bronx are different, and the same applies in Canada.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
In terms of voter-eligible population
we hit 61.7% in 2008 -- and that was the highest since 1968.

But yeah, I have no idea about Canadian turnout variance.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)

[ Parent ]
quite a few ganja breaks going on


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
All
the splits tonight went to the Tories according to the CBC.....man if the NDP get into government in the near future they should push for mandatory AV.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Ontario
Just look at Ontario and there's Harper's majority. More than enough seats that went Tory because of the Lib-NDP split.
[ Parent ]
For some fun Canadian satire
http://www.cbc.ca/minorityreport/

I love the Layton one; it's like the opposite of the Tea Party. If only, if only...

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

Calgary Southeast
the Liberals at the moment suffering the indignity of being reduced to 4th place with the Greens just slightly ahead of them.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
A 3-way race for Third!
with the Tory winning by unheard of margins, everyone's in last place in that riding, (not even counting the Calgary Flames!)

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
Would you like some salt on that wound?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Good night everyone
It was a fun last night at the old digs. Here's to continued prosperity at the new ones!

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
Well, everyone else is making the comparison, so...
Congratulations to Prime Minister Stephen "Charles Djou" Harper!

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
Although considering the dismal performance of the Liberals...
As well as the vote-sucking from the bottom of the ballot (Greens and Bloc), perhaps more accurate to call him Prime Minister Stephen "Paul LePage" Harper.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Good point...
also, sadly, Stephen Harper won't be going anywhere for a few years, so that's another point to the Paul LePage comparison.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
When, exactly, does SSP shut down?

[ Parent ]
40% of the vote
isn't that bad in multiparty Parliamentary elections. In the UK it's common for a majority government of that amount. Remember, not all the Lib/NDP split would go to one left-of-center party, the Tories would undoubtedly pick up some of the vote in a two-party election, though it would be terribly unpredictably where and how the vote would be allocated.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
They would pick up some
but my guess is about only 20-25%, partly based on polls I saw that asked voters for their second choice.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the NDP solidifies its gains, it will inevitably track towards the center more.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
If the Conservatives pick up 25% of the Liberal vote
The NDP only wins by .5% (unless the Greens come on to the coalition, too).

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
The big cheers for the congratulations Layton gave May...
Suggests the Greens joining would be a real possibility.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
And I thought OUR system was messed up...
I guess this is a firedoglake member's dream!  A third party splitting the anti-conservative vote and giving them easy victory after easy victory.

I guess having NDP at 100 seats is a big deal, at least.  I don't understand parliamentary systems... never will.

[ Parent ]
An NDP-Lib Truce or Cease-fire
Rather than a merger, maybe the Libs propose a truce or cease-fire, with the agreement to enact an AV or IRV system like in Australia.

Ahead of the next election look and see which ridings each party finished a strong 2nd to the Tories in this election. The third place finishers agree not to run a candidate and let the other party have a good shot at the seat and hopefully allowing a centre-left government.

Elect a coalition of convenience to implement a new voting system.

I know a radical suggestion of strategically not running candidates, but still. If the parties on the left are not going to merge, they've got to do something.

Bob Rae is suggesting some sort of alliance or merger
Ignatieff is, of course, not offering his resignation.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Ignatieff is gone, whether he likes it or not
As for Rae, he is former NDP, so he is probably one of the most open to a coalition of any in the Liberal party.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
And Rae's involvement is toxic to NDPers
There is very little regard in the NDP for someone they view as an opportunistic turncoat.
[ Parent ]
The Liberal Caucus is a Mess
Toronto survivors, old Progressive Conservative converts in the Maritimes, hardcore anti-separatists in Montreal who will not cooperate with a Quebec-dominated NDP, and a random splattering all over the place, its barely a party.

One reason Iggy will stay on is that no one is in a position to hold it together. Rae barely won his old riding, and the Toronto Liberals may see survival in a merger, but there is no reason for anyone else to cooperate. I see three different directions.

Bob Rae - closer cooperation with the NDP, the Liberals reduced to a rump ally of the NDP. He will be supported by the Toronto area MPs.

Justin Trudeu - This is a risky and ambitious move, but probably is the best chance for the party to overtake the NDP in 2015. In fact, its a win or bust move, and one that targets the NDP rather than the Tories as the main opponent for 2015.

Ralph Goodale - Probably the pick of the remaining regional blocks. Would move the Liberals to the right, and likely see them hope to move up the middle if the Tories and NDP both implode.

None of these strategies will command majority support, and with the party in its current state, there is no party infrastructure that will disincentive the regional fiefdoms that now make up the caucus from splitting up rather than following one of them.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Trudeau would be a stupid pick...
Because he's been an MP for as long as I've been a college student. If not for his last name, he'd be a total nobody.

Rae would be a risky pick because his track record isn't great.

Goodale is probably the safe bet, but I don't know if the coastal Liberals really want to move further to the right after taking such a shellacking this election.

Iggy has it all wrong. There's no ground in the center for the Liberals to hold, because the party doesn't look viable from the left and moderate conservatives aren't going to cross over from the right because its traditional role has been in opposition to the Conservatives.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I don't disagree
But parties in the sort of mess the Liberals are in now do stupid things.

The problem with Rae is of course his track record in Ontario, his recent role as attack dog against the NDP, but its also that the Liberals did fine in the Maritimes. Those MPs may not want to jump.

And someone like Goodale might not have a home in the NDP.

Of course, the next redistribution will be important. With the Tories in control there will finally be new maps drawn, and Alberta and BC will get a host of new seats. IF Quebec is not protected, and the Maritimes redrawn I can see the Tories picking up 8-10 seats from it.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Western Arctic called for NDP
they just need one more seat to get the symbolic victory of 100 seats.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
CBC now projecting 100 for the NDP
not sure what just got called, though.
[ Parent ]
Surrey North in BC
it seems to have a heavy South Asian population, as the NDP candidate is named Jasbir Sandhu and the Lib candidate is named Shinder Purewal.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Ahuntsic is looking like a BQ victory
Congrats, BQ. You got 4 seats. Considering you looked like you would only get 1 at one point, you must be happy.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Ahuntsic called for BQ


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Happy may not be the best word for it.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Alright, I'm signing off for the night
I guess this is my last comment on SSP. Here's hoping the future site goes as well as this one has.

Male, VA-08
NDP now has officially 100 seats


WA-07, 34 years old
That's positive news.
Quite a growth.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
final SSP post before the transfer
er, uh, um... (and then the earth explodeded itself).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
I want to make a last comment before the transfer too.
You guys are great and I really hope that being at DKE is no different than being here and that little changes aside from the website and format.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Here are the 7 outstanding ridings
Yukon: Tory leading Lib incumbent by 178 votes with only one poll outstanding. probably a Tory pickup

British Columbia

Vancouver Centre: Lib leads with 30%, followed by NDP and Tory with 26% each. NDP is 28 votes ahead of Tory. 81% reporting
Newton-North Delta: NDP leads with 34%, then Lib with 32% and Tory with 31%. 96% reporting. probably an NDP win
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca: NDP leads with 41 to Tory's 40. 96% reporting

Ontario

Etobicoke Centre: ridiculously-named Lib leads Tory by 102 votes with 3 polls left
Scarborough Southwest: NDP leads with 35, then Tory with 32 and Lib with 29. 90% reporting
Scarborough Centre: Tory leads with 36, followed by Lib with 32 and NDP with 30. 94% reporting

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Newton-North Delta called for NDP
6 ridings left.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Looks like two apiece from that bunch...
Excluding the NDP pickup in Newton-North Delta.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
agreed
also, Vancouver Centre has been called for deliciously-named Liberal Hedy Fry.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
And then there were five.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Scarborough Centre called for Tories, Scarborough Southwest called for NDP
three more!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'm thinking one apiece from those.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Yukon is all but guaranteed to go blue (the bad kind of blue)
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca could conceivably go for the Tories, but that would be extremely unlikely.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
That's Hedley
j/k

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
The Colbert Bump doesn't extend up north: the one MP profiled on the Colbert Report loses
Last year during the Olympics Stephen Colbert profiled Ujjal Dosanjh, calling it "Better Know a Riding."  He lost badly tonight.

Interview here:http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/264536/february-22-2010/better-know-a-riding---vancouver-s-south

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Wrong link
http://www.colbertnation.com/t...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Doubtless will come up on tomorrow's "Colbert Report"
I'm not sure 10,000 Stephen Colberts could have saved Dosanjh in this election, though.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Must have been a brutal riding
lost 43-34 to the Tory.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
He's the former provincial premier...
... of British Columbia. Surprising that he lost.  
[ Parent ]
Well
umm...I guess this is it guys. Thank you SSP for the years of enjoyment you have given me. Ever since I stumbled upon you when I was googling the 2010 senate races back in the 2008 election, I have always called you home.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Join us over at DKE
At least give it a try. We'll miss you if you don't.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Oh
I'm already there. In fact I'm planning on publishing my diary on the NSW state election whenever I finish it on DKos. Hell I still have the same username on DKos.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Oh good!
Looking forward to that diary.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Stephane
Dion has been reelected in his riding of Saint-Laurent-Cartierville! Maybe the Liberals will trot him out for a second try as leader if they are truly desperate.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Celine Dion has a better chance of being elected leader...
Than Stephane Dion.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Comment of the day


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
His heart will go on?

[ Parent ]
dammit!
in Etibicoke Centre, the guy whose last name makes Giannoulias look like Davis was leading by 9 votes, then the last poll came in and they called it for the Tories. :(

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Ah, crap!
Let's hope the Lib ekes it out in Yukon so I don't look like a dumbass.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Sadly, I wouldn't bet on it
there's only one poll left and that would have to go strongly Lib to erase the 168-vote Tory advantage.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Good thing that precinct...
Consists of a pot-growing commune in the arts district of Whitehorse.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
But a fairly buttoned-up commune
Relatively business-friendly. Not completely sold on public healthcare yet, but definitely opposed to Prime Minister Harper's plan to purchase F-35s from Lockheed Martin.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Dammit.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I guess the pot was too good for them to bother voting
since it only voted for the Lib by 36 votes. Yukon called for the Tories, that just leaves Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca where the NDP is leading by 379 votes with 1 poll left.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Fortunately those hippies...
Aren't as business-friendly and don't have much else to do in their tiny communities other than vote.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Speaking of which...
Ganja break in that riding.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Actually, the last poll reported
and the NDP is ahead by 406 votes. they just called it. and that's a wrap. hope to see everyone over at DKE!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Another Toronto seat to the Tories
and by 26 votes!

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
Tories are going to end up with 167 seats.
with less than 40% of the popular vote.

The NDP significantly outperformed the Liberals, but they didn't come that close to the Tories. It's kind of a mix of HI-01 and ME-Gov. So the question boils down to, which sounds better, Stephen "Paul Djou" Harper or Stephen "Charles LePage" Harper?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
It's been a fantastic ride SSP
I look forward to seeing you all on DK Elections!
So assuming that last riding goes orange
let's see how unfair the Canadian electoral system is...

Tories: 40% of vote, 54% of ridings
NDP: 31% of vote, 33% of ridings
Liberals: 19% of vote, 16% of ridings
BQ: 6% of vote, 1% of ridings
Green: 4% of vote, about 0.3% of ridings

yeah, this is kinda BS.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

oops
that's some Fox news math on my part there. that's because I gave the Libs 16% of seats when they only got 11%. My bad

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Well, that's about a wrap
So long, and thanks for the fun Swing State Project. Hopefully the next obscure state-level election night is as fun on DKE.

And may Nancy Johnson shudder in her dreams at the thought of SSP.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

See you there tomorrow night
for the special assembly elections here in Wisconsin :P
[ Parent ]
And we're done, people
Last riding in British Columbia has been called for NDP. And speaking of orange...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
Keep waiting for David to put in the last word here
For my own part, I'm off to bed.

Goodnight SSP!  

Harper = McGovern, and why we need swing state thinking
In 1972 george McGovern got 40% of the vote and the rest of the candidates combined for 60%.

In 2011, the Tories get 40% of the vote, and the other candidates get the rest, and the Tories run the majority government in Canada.

Go figure.

1997
The Liberals got a majority with 38%

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
I was watching CBC Vancouver wrap the last riding
More importantly, it's been fun here at the soon-to-be-ex-SSP. I, for one, welcome out new orange overlords. After a long, meditative ganja break.

Radical or something, WA-07
We really need to add that term to our official dictionary...
Though perhaps not in the way you mean it now.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Goodnight, all
Thanks for making the last five years of my time spent here as an editor such a blast. I hope to see each and every one of you over at Daily Kos Elections tomorrow!
Goodnight! See you there!


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Good night.
I look forward to seeing you all over there tomorrow for the Assembly elections. This is my last post on SSP proper.
[ Parent ]
I want to say "goodbye"
But want even more to keep talking about Canadian ridings I didn't even know existed 3 weeks ago.

This site cemented my love for elections, Congressional politics, and thoughtful political discourse. I can't believe I've read it since the Hackett race, back when I wasn't even able to buy beer.

I hope everyone (or almost everyone) makes the transition to DK4. Creating an internal community with particularly thoughtful and disparate views would be neat.

For those who don't make the jump, godspeed. For those who do, see you in the morning :)

24, SSP Gay Caucus Policy Committee Chair, Western Democrat; CO-05 (home), CA-14 (law school)

Good night, everyone.
I had an awesome 3.5 years here, and I hope to spend as much time if not more over at DKE. See everyone there!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
Canadian Election Results Thread #2 | 212 comments

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