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SSP Daily Digest: 4/22

by: DavidNYC

Fri Apr 22, 2011 at 8:10 AM EDT


Senate:

• AZ-Sen: I keep saying that there's no way Jeff Flake waltzes to the GOP nomination, but the Republican party has yet to prove me right. Fortunately, my deliverance may come in the form of rich guy Wil Cardon, who is supposedly giving the race a "very strong look" - and can self-fund.

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov, etc.: Like another failed Republican gubernatorial candidate before her, it looks like we won't have Meg Whitman to kick around anymore. Actually, that's kind of confusing, because of course we did get to kick Dick Nixon around quite a bit more... but not until he kicked all of us around first. Anyhow, uh, where was I? Oh yeah, the former eBay chief says she "doubts" whether she'll run for office again. Let's hope she means it.

• MA-Sen: Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead, and Deval Patrick still won't run for Senate.

• MT-Sen: For once, I'm hoping a Republican schedules more fundraisers - at least, fundraisers like this. Denny Rehberg just did an event in Denver that was co-hosted by BP's "director of government and public affairs" (i.e., their chief in-house lobbyist)... on the one-year anniversary of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. Good optics!

• ND-Sen: This should scare absolutely no one off, from either party: Republican Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk, the only declared candidate to succeed retiring Sen. Kent Conrad, raised all of $32K in Q1. John Hoeven he ain't. While we're on the subject of North Dakota, former Sen. Byron Dorgan, who retired last year, just donated the bulk of his remaining campaign funds - $1 million - to a new charity he founded, the Center for Native American Youth. A worthy cause, I'm sure, but I'll bet Joe Sestak would have really appreciated that extra mil.

• OH-Sen: It's weird how the GOP went from utterly dominating last year's Senate election in Ohio to digging out their barrel-bottom scrapers from the back of the utility shed. Ken Blackwell says he's talking to the NRSC about a possible run... though I guess it's not really clear if the NRSC is talking back. A lulzy quote: "You don't just come out and build the sort of support base that I have overnight." True - you probably need to spend two years running a crappy campaign to do as terribly as he did in the governor's race back in 2006.

• TN-Sen: This is a little odd: Sen. Bob Corker said he "came close" to not seeking re-election this cycle. Too bad we don't have a candidate who could make hay out of Corker's lack of fire in the belly (a phrase he actually uses with respect to some fantasy presidential run, but seems applicable to his day job, too).

• VA-Sen: It's starting to feel like the wingnut candidates are doing everything they can to make life easier for George Allen by piling into the clown car that is the GOP primary field. The latest is rich dude Tim Donner, whom we mentioned last month. Almost all of these weirdos claim to be teabaggers in good standing, so this almost assuredly means we'll see some People's Front of Judea/Judean People's Front nonsense, rather than a united effort to stop Allen. Lame.

Gubernatorial:

• KY-Gov: Republican frontrunner David Williams raised just $450K in Q1 and has $670K on hand. (This compares to Gov. Steve Beshear, whose numbers we mentioned previously: $1.3m/$3.3m.)

• NC-Gov: PPP's monthly home-state poll shows Gov. Bev Perdue inching up against Republican Pat McCrory, trailing 49-38 instead of 50-36. That's very similar to a new SurveyUSA poll which has McCrory up 51-39.

• SC-Gov: The issues are a little too complex for me to try to summarize here in a digest bullet, but the link will take you to an interesting story exposing some pretty naïve political incompetence on the part of supposed GOP wunderkind Gov. Nikki Haley. One thing I'd like to remind folks of is that despite the Republican bloodbath of 2010, Haley didn't perform all that impressively. In fact, she had the second-narrowest win out of all 20 victorious GOP gubernatorial candidates, just 4.3%. Only Rick Scott won more narrowly, and he's Rick Scott. Dem Vincent Sheheen got almost no national attention but should have, given his strong performance in a tough state in an impossible year. If Haley continues to stumble, I think she could prove surprisingly vulnerable in 2014.
DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/22
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SSP Daily Digest: 4/22 | 134 comments
What is Denny Rehberg thinking
I mean seriously I know he needs money, but at what sacrifice to common sense.
Because voters often lack common sense

[ Parent ]
Yup, Rehberg not so dumb here, he's following the rule that...
...no one cares where someone's money comes from.  It's never anything remotely close to a voting issue.

Of course, that doesn't mean the opportunity never arises to tie something like this into a larger narrative if there's other supporting material out there.  But there's no obvious compelling narrative into which this fundraiser fits.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I go back and forth
with how I feel about campaign finance spending and everything related to it and how we should approach it, but I'm definitely in favor of disclosure. The problem, as I suspect you would agree, is that voters build up a callous to it after a while. Even if the sources of a candidate's fund raising are less the savory in the eyes of many voters, it will only sting badly for so long before people go, "And what else is new?"

Which means, of course, that if I ever run for something, I can only use my technique of staring into the camera for my commercials and saying that "I will only work for the people!" as I rip up checks from contributors a few times before it becomes old news. Once for the state legislature, once for the mayorship/governorship/national senate, and once for president, I guess.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
It's a year and a half before the election
nobody whose vote this would effect is paying attention.
[ Parent ]
As DCC says
It's all about being able to weave this into a narrative, or use it in an attack ad further down the line. Maybe it won't have any effect, but that's also why I said (tongue-in-cheek, but also earnestly!) that I hoped Rehberg would have more fundraisers like this.
[ Parent ]
We have to thank PPP for Ken Blackwell's interest in OH-Sen
He had no interest in the race prior to PPP polling his name out of the blue.  And PPP has been very helpful in encouraging Trump!  We should all thank Tom Jensen for his valuable work getting unelectables interested in races.
I wonder
If he's doing it on purpose. Including the names to interest them.

18, Dem, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Well, if you read that Politico article a few weeks back...
Jensen mentioned that he purposely polled NC left and right after 2006 to convince someone to compete against Liz Dole.  Kay Hagan took the bait and she won.

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen
did the same thing last year too. He purposely polled WA-SEN last year over and over again to get Dino Rossi into the race. He just won't admit it openly, but only an idiot wouldn't think Rassy had some ulterior motives here. Luckily for us Rossi fell short...again!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
He was the only one polling Wisconsin for a long time too
Remember all of those months that he had Ron Jonson 1 point ahead of Feingold
[ Parent ]
Don't forget his fetish for Tommy Thompson.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It does bring up one thing...
Last year, there were some people that were critical of Rasmussen for "trying to drive the narrative." I seem to remember Kos as being one of those, actually. But I see nothing wrong with that, and I see nothing wrong with what Jensen is doing. You can poll who you want, and people can take it for however they want.

Now the fact that Rasmussen turned out to be a crappy pollster, where PPP has (so far) been stellar - that's the real issue.

[ Parent ]
Not quite the same.
Rasmussen spam-polled these areas, polling at least once a month in the same place nearly a year before election day.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
PPP, on the other hand,....
did not spam the hell out of only a handful of races.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I think Rasmussen
Must always be viewed, as lawyers would say, by considering the totality of the circumstances. It's easy to look at one small aspect here or there of Ramussen's modus operandi and compare it to PPP and say, "Hey, what's so bad?" or "They do the same thing."

But when you look at Rasmussen holistically, there are serious problems - and the comparison to PPP completely falls apart:

1) PPP is an avowedly Democratic pollster. Rasmussen insists it is non-partisan, yet Scott Rasmussen did work for Bush and the RNC but never seems to acknowledge it (plus allies cover it up for him). He himself is an extremely conservative guy who is a featured guest on right-wing cruises and wrote a book advocating Social Security privatization. In other words, Rasmussen's pretense at independence is exactly in the same vein as Fox News's "fair & balanced" moniker: bullshit.

2) Rasmussen frequently tests very axe-grindey issue questions (example), something that PPP not only never does, but works extremely hard to stay away from. Rasmussen's questions often buy into right-wing frames and use wording that is unacceptable for a serious pollster. I don't think you can find a single example of PPP doing the same.

3) Rasmussen will ask potentially biasing issue-based questions up front. This can cause serious problems, as Nate Silver pointed out w/r/t Fox polls. PPP always asks favorables/approvals and head-to-heads before getting into the issue questions.

4) Rasmussen has never shared or explained his voter screens. By contrast, I'm not sure there's a more transparent pollster than PPP. Not only has Tom Jensen discussed his screening and weighting procedures at length, but in their polls for Daily Kos, they provide full raw data for all respondents. That is simply unprecedented.

5) Tom Jensen openly acknowledged he was trying to draw someone into the race against Dole. Rasmussen won't even deign to answer questions on this sort of topic, and would never admit it anyway. (See #1.)

6) The pudding: Rasmussen sucked last year, while PPP was very accurate, and even had a tiny Republican lean.

Keeping all this in mind, it's pretty impossible to say that the two firms share any real resemblances.

[ Parent ]
David,
Go buy yourself some Babka. You deserve it after that post.  
[ Parent ]
It's Passover!
No babka for me! But next week, hells yeah!
[ Parent ]
Tuesday night can't come fast enough.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Oh man, no kidding
What would you have done if you were still in Japan right now? Lots of sashimi?
[ Parent ]
No idea.
I might have had to stick to meat and vegetables. Although maybe just giving up on Passover for a year would have been better, since nothing in Japan is technically "kosher" (in the sense that there's no guarantee against cross-contamination).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
There's always
[ Parent ]
Closest Chabad to Kyoto is in Kobe
which is a good hour and a half away from where I lived. Being Jewish in Japan is hard!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
No kidding
My brother lived there for seven years.
[ Parent ]
That's seriously awesome
Where in Japan?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Mostly Tokyo
But he first lived in Nagoya. Now he lives in NYC.
[ Parent ]
Cool!
I'd like to visit Nagoya someday, just for kicks. Then again, since it's nowhere close to either Kobe or Tokyo, I can't imagine being a Jew is easy there, either!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Heh yeah
This was 20 years ago... Nagoya was definitely the sticks (at least as my brother perceived it at the time).
[ Parent ]
That's interesting, since I believe it's the 4th-largest city, ahead of even Kyoto
But according to my parents, who went to Japan in the early 80s and again this past January, it's changed a lot over the years!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Well
The 4th largest city in the United States is Houston.... and I'll just leave it at that. :)
[ Parent ]
Touché!
At the very least, I can promise you that Aichi Prefecture is nothing like Texas. ;)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Excellent comment, thanks n/t

[ Parent ]
Virginia
I'll be surprised if any of these pipsqueaks get on the ballot, except maybe Radtke. Virginia has a high signature requirement -- 10,000 signatures including 400 from each of the state's Congressional districts -- which usually keeps most candidates on a shoestring budget off the ballot.
Texas Senate
Well, despite not being officially in, let alone actually winning a primary, Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez appears to be the front runner, if only by default, for the Democrats. There are definitely legitimate questions about him and about his tenure in Iraq, and about the general effectiveness of running him and whether it represents more of the same in regards to hoping he catches on despite having no electoral experience in a pretty conservative state that has provem hostile to a lot of Democrats lately. I say the difference is that there will be much more thorough institutional support in the form of an Obama campaign that (I'm almost certain) will be in the state in a way that no Democrat has been in decades. Still, it's not clear whether he should be the candidate, or what might happen if he's not for some reason.

I'm trying to figure this out, so last night, I did a little searching as I struggled to fall asleep. I found the following link, which contains links to many other pages, which contain yet even more links to other pages. Some of it's a little bit circular since they redirect back to one another, but there is a variety here. And while I haven't read through all of it yet--I'd like to get something accomplished today, after all--what I have read is interesting. Some of these links aren't entirely about elections, but all relate back to his candidacy, so they are worth posting. If anyone knows of anything else interesting--and this definitely includes our conservative friends, who opened my eyes to a book I need to pick up--please share. I'm eager to learn more about this.

http://www.burntorangereport.c...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Nikki Haley
One thing that needs to be said - it's likely her race was so close last fall in part because of racism and (maybe) sexism as well. Full disclosure: she was probably the only Republican I was rooting for last year, because of the history of racism in South Carolina and also because her opponent seemed pretty conservative himself.

That said - this isn't the first time she's been accused of incompetence and questionable acts. The story does not make her look good.  

Yet another reason
I hope Sheheen tries again.  He did a very good job and didn't resort to using imagery to appeal to racists like Blanco did (her campaign darkened the color of Jindal's skin in her ads, I believe).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Meh
Unless I'm missing something, I don't know that he would have been that much of an upgrade. There are other Dems I'd probably root for harder. OTOH, I don't want to see her become a national figure either, so I certainly wouldn't care if she lost (she's already broken the barrier by winning in the first place).  
[ Parent ]
Well, the two upgrades I can see already
is A. It boosts the SC Democratic Party
  B. Based on her record of incompetence and corruption that she's building at lightning speed, he'd be a sure improvement.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That was never proven
But its highly likely that its true and was highly effective.  
[ Parent ]
Agreed
Never proven and there are so many things you can do to pics and films such that you don't lighten/darken skin tone directly, but can have that effect. I'm sure that's what Blanco's team did rather than directly photoshop his skin or something.

Speaking of, isn't it interesting that Jindal's official portrait is like the lightest-skin-looking one of him in existence?  http://www.americablog.com/201...

But remember, racism totally died when America elected a black President, so let's keep that in mind...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I personally know
Republicans in South Carolina who voted for Sheheen because Haley was Indian-American, which means she's probably really liberal, and they wanted to send a message to the GOP.
[ Parent ]
Ugh
Indian-American and thus liberal is pretty asinine reasoning.

If anything, she was seen as too fiscally conservative, to the point of not getting anything done with the legislature. Sanford was very similar, and she was his protege. That's part of why many in the South Carolina GOP establishment opposed her, and it's also why Erick Erickson and Sarah Palin. Although race and gender were undoubtedly issues as well.

A few missteps in year one are also not surprising from someone so inexperienced. In 2014, she'll have more experience and entrenched support, a less cutthroat primary, and most likely an anti-Obama narrative in SC. So, she should have an easier time.  

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

[ Parent ]
Because she TOTALLY didn't have an anti-Obama narrative in SC last year...

[ Parent ]
Missed a word there
I should have added a "still" or "again" or "continuing" in there for that part.

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)
[ Parent ]
That reasoning was asinine as applied to Haley, but as a rule it's true......
Most Indian-Americans are liberal, and vote Democratic, and in fact consistently more one-sidedly than Hispanics.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Fortunately are highest ranking
Indian American is Kamala Harris.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Uh...Bobby Jindal
I think Kenneth the Governor outranks Kamala the AG, yes?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
.
I think he was saying that the highest ranking Democratic Indian-American is Kamala Harris, but I'm not sure.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
He probably did
But I just really wanted to compare Gov. Jindal to Kenneth the Page again, so I just threw that out there....   :)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
I meant Democratic politicians.
Although a case could be made that AG Harris has more power than Halley or Jindal.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
...
Not at all.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/F...
http://www.boston.com/news/loc...

No Asian subgroup votes for Democrats at a percentage than non-Cuban hispanics... In fact, Vietnamese are hard core Republicans. Indian Americans are best described as slightly Democratic.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Insert
"Higher" before percentage.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
idk about your second article since I don't feel like subscribing
but your first article proves DCCyclone's point. it says Indian-Americans favored Kerry 53-14. It's unclear how well Kerry did with Hispanics, but best-case scenario I believe is 20 points or so, nowhere near the 39-point lead that Kerry had with Indian-Americans in that poll.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
No
Those voters were undecided, even if the undecideds split 60-40 for Kerry he still wouldn't have gotten the same level that he did with Hispanics.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
How do you know the undecideds didn't split at the same clip as the decideds?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
.
Because undecideds usually split roughly 50-50 with a slight advantage for the challenger.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
That may be true of the general population
but it's not so true of subgroups. For instance, it's not at all uncommon to see a poll that shows AA voters going, say, 70-10 with 20 undecided, and on Election Day the Dem gets around 85-90% of the black vote.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yup, "undecideds split for challenger" is broadly discredited......
It's proven to be very untrue.

Only in a wave election is it broadly true.  And that doesn't tell you much, you already know a wave is coming and know to expect it!

And your example re black voters is right on point, their undecideds break left.

Similar thing with Indian Americans, a large majority of independents break left.  Not same as "undecideds," but same general principle in play.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Nope, you're mistaken there, and my sources can beat up your sources......
http://www.aaldef.org/publicat...

Scroll down to the strangely-named section "Voting Rights" for exit polls.

There are subgroup breakdowns in these.

These aren't truly "national" exit polls because AALDEF doesn't have the resources to do what the NEP does.  But they do a bunch of polling places in cities and states all over, obviously focused on places where you'll find large numbers of Asian voters.

Bottom line:  South Asians of all national origins (broken down in these polls as Indian; Pakistani; Bangladeshi; and Indo-Caribbean) easily are more Democratic, by a pretty big margin, easily bigger than Hispanics.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
To be fair
Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are mostly Muslim, which is probably a stronger predictor of voting patterns these days than being Asian.
[ Parent ]
The stronger predictor is race, specifically that...
...we have brown skin.

That's what everyone sees when they look at us:  brown skin.  There's nothing marking me as Hindu or the Pakistani guy standing next to me as Muslim.

And that brown skin very much distinguishes us from other "Asians."

The whole concept of "Asians"-Americans is a fiction.  It's true that we're categorized that way and you see some political organization that way, but it's purely for practical reasons because the numbers by national origin are so small for each subgroup.  Only by pretending we're a "group" is there a strength of numbers.

For my part, black people routinely call me "brother," and Hispanics will often speak to me initially in Spanish (before quickly realizing oh, I don't speak Spanish, maybe I'm not one of them, then switch to English).  I love all this, being in such a small minority group in this country it is nice to feel broadly included.  On the flip side, I've had the experience in the past of being called the "N" word.

So it's common for South Asians to identify more as "people of color" for these reasons.  We don't always feel anything more in common with Japanese-Americans or Filipino-Americans than with black or Hispanic Americans.

In that same vein, American-born Indian Hindus feel a kinship with Pakistanis and Bangladeshis, there's not much feeling of separation in America.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I get that same feeling too
The three East Asian powers (Korea, China, Japan) pretty much hate each other, but it seems like most Asian advocacy organizations in America include all of those groups under their umbrella. It makes sense, since Asians are only like 3% of the population to begin with and need all the power they can get. Politics makes for strange bedfellows.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Those rivalries are meaningless and feel stupid when you grow up in central Iowa......
You grow up here, you're American.  The thing about America is, the force of assimililation is like gravity, it's awful hard for immigrant parents to fight it.  Children just grow up absorbed into the surroundings and wanting to be like everyone else.  That's what it was like for me...at least my parents didn't really try to fight it.

So it's awfully hard for an American-born Korean-American to think any differently of a Japanese-American or a Chinese-American than of a fellow Korean-American.

But they do share a kinship across East Asian races here simply because there is enough racial similarity.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Some of these people are shaped to an extent by their parents
and it's no exaggeration to say that quite a few Korean immigrants are not the biggest fan of Japan (mostly because of what happened during WWII).

Nevertheless, I agree that these sentiments tend to be weaker in the children of immigrants.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
There was a time
When my former state senator was the highest ranking Indian American in politics in the country. He is no longer my state senator (or my parents, for that matter), but times have greatly changed in the last decade or so for Indians in politics.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Those people...
Obviously have no idea that Sheheen is also - somewhere down the line - of Indian heritage.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
I thought he was of Arab descent.
Like Nick Rahall and Mitch Daniels.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Last Name
Shahin, Sheheen, and Shaheen are Persian, not Arab. Persian is much closer to Indian that it is to Arab.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Eh
At least it depends on what part of Persia you consider there family to be from. If they're Pakistani or the like I'd consider it more Indian flavored. If his family is from something like Iraq or Lebanon, it'd be Pan-Arab. FWIW, the Persian center of gravity is much closer to India than Saudi or Egypt. Persian as a language has also been more influential over the development of Hindu and other South Asian languages that it has been on the development of Arabian languages.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Their
ugh, oops be to me.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
You mean Farsi
Persian is a people, Farsi is a language.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
I think there's a dispute among linguists
and expats about that. It's akin to (but a little subtler than) Beijing vs. Peking.

I think there's probably a good argument for just calling the language "Iranian." YMMV.

[ Parent ]
I guess I don't hear that it is an argument
I work with a couple Iranians. It is definitely referred to as "Farsi" to them, and they correct people that call it Arabic, or Irani. people from Iran are very proud of that fact, and their Persian ancestry. It is quite interesting so see the chasms that exist between the Persian and the Arab communities.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Surely it isn't Arabic
And in fact, Iran is unique in the degree to which it accepted Islam by resisted Arabization. It maintained and nurtured its own literary tradition.

But I think there is a generational gap over Farsi/Persian.

It's not my heritage, though, so I can't begin to speak authoritatively.  

[ Parent ]
.
Persian is the official term used by linguists.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Iranian
Iranian is a group of languages that is very very broad. Persian is a sub-group of a sub-group of a sub-group of Iranian.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Referred:
http://www.ethnologue.com/show...

Persian is a group of languages. Farsi (specifically only the western and eastern varieties) are varieties of Persian.

When I was talking about influences, I was talking about thousands of years ago before Persian (similar to Latin) split into multiple different languages.

The other Farsi languages are not derivative of Persian, but are Fars (Southwestern Farsi) and Central Iranian (Northwestern Farsi).

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
That sounds right to me!

[ Parent ]
I know an Iranian guy
who says he speaks "Persian" at home. He's a pretty well-educated guy, I don't think he would use an inaccurate term for his own language.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I happen to think Haley was actually tainted by her Sanford connections
I think Haley was mistaken to use Sanford's wife as a surrogate on the campaign trail.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
NV-02: Gadfly Once is a Gadfly Always?
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
PA State Senate
I'm doing a map of the PA State Senate, and I have been unable to find district by district Obama results for the State Senate. If anyone knows where I could find it, pass it on.

18, Dem, PA-7
Candidate for Dems in LA?
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Georges is all washed up
He made a minor splash in the '07 gubernatorial race, garnering 14 party as a third-party candidate, but he only managed 9 percent in his second attempt at public office (New Orleans Mayor). I doubt Democrats would be thrilled to run him.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Insert eye-roll here
Georges was a Bush fundraiser who ran for Governor as an Independent, then became a Democrat and ran for Mayor of New Orleans.
[ Parent ]
She's the daughter
of the former state party chair and Walker was plucked from obscurity.  One of the news channels did some research and showed how Grimes and her family have given thousands to candidates and Elaine Walker only wrote one $30 check to one legislative candidate.  I'm for Walker but I won't be surprised to see Grimes win.  I think she's received some union endorsements too.

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11
[ Parent ]
Wrong reply!
I'm sorry - wrong section.  I swore I hit the right reply - oh well.

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11
[ Parent ]
LT. Gov
I'll just copy my post from RRH to here:
Dems will take anything they can get, even Georges who is kinda a joke now.* After Fayard's mini implosion, they want a self-funder and Georges is that. However, a couple of months ago he told his aides that he was in for Lt. Gov. That would worry me more than if he ran for Gov. The Lt. Gov race is already looking like it will be nasty with oil-spill star Billy Nungesser likely running against Dardenne with soft support from Jindal. Two Republicans beating each other up+ Georges could be bad.

*Why is he a joke? In 2007, he filed to run for Gov as a Republican and tried to get party support over Jindal because of his $$$. When that failed, he made an offer to Jindal for Georges to drop out and run for Lt. Gov with them as a ticket. When Jindal said no, Georges became an Independent and ran for Gov. He did better than expected, coming in 3rd and seemed like he may have a future in elective office in LA. Then he ran for Mayor of New Orleans where he became a Democrat, his 2nd party switch in 3 years. He started as the frontunner, but then Mitch Landrieu entered and he came in third. In this campaign, Georges ran to Landrieu's left after running as a conservative for Gov not even 3 yrs ago.  

[ Parent ]
KY-State House: Word is spreading of a possible defection.
It's not confirmed, but State Rep. Wade Hurt (R-SW Louisville) may become a Democrat.  This would be most delightful if true.
http://barefootandprogressive....

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
In other news, Conway endorsed Grimes.
http://barefootandprogressive....
http://www.courier-journal.com...

Too bad for Beshear.  He hoped he could get a solid coalition to support Walker, but then the other Dem powers decided to back Grimes when they saw her potential (not just Conway, but also Speaker Stumbo, ex-Gov. Carroll, and even Dr. Dan Mongiardo).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
I'm really surprised at Grimes' strength
When she announced, she seemed like a pretty fringey, hopeless candidate (I believe she or one of her surrogates posted here once or twice trying to promote her candidacy).
[ Parent ]
She's the daughter
of the former state party chair Jerry Lundergan and Walker was plucked from obscurity.  One of the news channels did some research and showed how Grimes and her family have given thousands to candidates and Elaine Walker only wrote one $30 check to one legislative candidate.  I'm for Walker but I won't be surprised to see Grimes win.  I think she's received some union endorsements too.

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11
[ Parent ]
I'm really backing Grims
she seems like she has a future and the ability to become a rising star and maybe even get elected Governor or Senator.  
[ Parent ]
KY: It's official, State Rep. Wade Hurt (R) defects.
http://www.courier-journal.com...

His winning as a Republican was kind of a fluke anyway since the area is strongly Democratic, but the Dem candidate was declared ineligible for the ballot.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

It's a very nice break to have
good defection-related news for Dems.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Good to see one of these for the Dem side
Reading the article, the circumstances make sense for him to switch.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Interesting
Not many times in the last year or so have we sweet switches from R to D. Although we saw some of that earlier in the last decade (Senator Jeffords comes to mind)

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Doubt he survives a primary
if he's a "longtime GOP activist".
[ Parent ]
Also, why didn't someone run as a write-in against him?
He only got about 3,500 votes, whereas most contested races had about 15,000, and most uncontested races were between 7-8,000.
[ Parent ]
I welcome him
but I will be shocked if he survives a primary.

20, Democrat, KY-01
[ Parent ]
Demcorats now at 59 in the House, inching back to the 60 mark
I would not be surprised if Democrats in the KY House aren't able cross back over the 60 member mark in 2012. That is of course barring retirements in marginal rural districts and/or another year resembling 2010 -although the KY House Dems held up well in that election cycle.  

Democrat: TN-8
[ Parent ]
The Kentucky Democratic party
really seems to have its stuff together. Perhaps because the state has been competitive for a long time, and they weren't complacent like other southern Parties, but they've held together well. I'm hoping Arkansas turns out the same way.  
[ Parent ]
Arkansas
I'm not holding my breath for Arkansas.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
They have the opportunity to pick up the pieces.
They still have strong local strength and the head of the AR GOP and their Senate Minority Leader are nincompoops (lol, haven't used that phrase in ages).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It's nice, childish word
But yeah. The GOP in Arkansas is pretty much an example of Amateur hour. I'm waiting to see if they become a serious party in the next few years. I'm also waiting to see if Obama gets serious about helping the AR-DP. Seriously, 1 million in Arkansas by the Obama campaign could do a massive amount of work, not just in GOTV among Hispanic voters in the NW, but also in providing a crutch to the state party and trying to hold the Republican margin under 56%.  
[ Parent ]
If Obama campaigned in Arkansas, (which I doubt he does),
Democrats would probably hold the State Legislature after 2012. There are some vulnerable Democratic seats in the South that are going to need African American turnout for Democrats to keep those seats. In the House, the two seats that we might pickup are in southern Arkansas, in seats where African Americans make up a sizable portion of the electorate. We might even be able to win AR-01 if Democrats put enough effort into it.

Speaking of the State Republican Party, they are going to be losing Kim Hendren after 2012. (He is term-limited). Doyle Webb and the Arkansas Republican Party is probably the reason why Republicans are not in control of the Senate & House & other statewide offices. And of the three statewide Republicans elected this time, one has already turned out to be extremely corrupt.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
TN-Sen
Why can't we field a decent candidate against Corker exactly? What's Phil Bredesen up to? What about McWherter?

Hometown: PA-8, Currently: CA-30.
Alt. Delegate to the CA DEMs from the 41st Assembly District.
There was polling earlier this year
showing Bredesen not only leading, but leading big against Corker.  I don't know if he's said anything about running/not running, but the DSCC has to be keeping tabs on him if he hasn't, he'd pretty much equate to a democratic John Hoeven (or at least Mark Kirk) if he jumped in.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't call leading by 5 big.
nt

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I would call that big
...against a non-crazy, non-scandalous Republican incumbent in Tennessee.  :)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Speaking of Low Tier Senate races that could be competitive
Where the hell is Dave Freudenthal in the WY-Sen race.  Who knows if he can win, but putting the GOP on the defensive in a state like Wyoming would get me giddy like a school child.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
A LOT of our popular Governors, esp in red states, refuse to run for Senate......
That's been true for a lot of cycles, even when the environment for us was great.

Once in awhile it's a blessing in disguise, like when we couldn't get Mike Easley to run for Senate, and then of course his ethics problems crushed his reputation.

But it's been a trend that we can't get Governors we want to run, to run.

I think a lot of them simply don't want to be junior officeholders in a Club of 100 after having been top dog, and aldo a lot of them don't want to live in Washington most of the year, they like making a life in their own state.  They figure there is more to life than running for office, and making it to Governor is their pinnacle.

So it's been tough to get some of them to run.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
realistic?
I would assume the problem here is Freudenthal might be able to have some other career in Wyoming as a former governor, but a quixotic run for Senate would be rather damaging to his reputation. I would like to see some polling indicating he would make the race competitive before I started thinking he should consider a run.

Hometown: PA-8, Currently: CA-30.
Alt. Delegate to the CA DEMs from the 41st Assembly District.
[ Parent ]
I think I saw an interview with him where he ruled out a bid
I don't think Phil Bredesen or Brad Henry (next cycle) have done the same, but nor has Bredesen been sounding much like a candidate.

I expect Henry will get offered a job in the Cabinet during President Obama's second term, assuming Obama is reelected.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
No Senate run?
What if Inhofe or Coburn retires? It'd still be an uphill battle, but it'd be interesting.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
There's one potential problem.
Supposedly, some outside Tea Party group was in Wyoming interviewing Senate candidates to run against Barrasso. Why, I have no idea, and I have no idea how successful they'd be if they actually got someone to try it. But if they were to knock Barrasso off and the Republican were some no namer or low-level state senator or something, it doesn't seem that hard to believe Freudenthal could win, considering his popularity.

I continue to think of these races, though, as second or third-best opportunities. If it looks like Obama wil be cruising to reelection and the Democrats will be winning the seats in Ohio, Virginia, and Missouri fairly easily, he and they will have the opportunity to pound the Republicans from every angle. It wouldn't shock me to see Obama make a play for Wyoming if he didn't have to worry a lot about Iowa or Wisconsin or Virginia or Colorado. At that point, why not? The worst that would happen is that they'd lose, but in the process, they'd build the party where it probably needs it badly.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
There's probably about 40 states higher up on list of states he'd play for than Wyoming.

[ Parent ]
Obama in Wyoming.
I agree that there are 40 states more likely to get attention than Wyoming. Hell, maybe it's 45.

I was simply speaking of a situation where he looks increasingly likely to not only win, but win big--the sort of win that would allow him to put away Virginia by around ten points, at least--and where he'd have a lot of extra money to burn. At that point, he could just start tossing around money in every state. Why wouldn't he? The worst that happens is that he merely starts the process of rebuilding the party. It'd be the equivalent of Reagan spending his last week in Minnesota, just to see if he could win Mondale's home state.

Just so we are clear, I am not saying this situation is likely, only that I could see it happening if he were very strong and based on his previous desire to expand the map.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Wyoming as in McCain's second-best state?
I mean I guess it could happen if it turns out that the Republican nominee is a serial rapist...but let's just say that if Obama were competitive in Wyoming, he wouldn't be winning Virginia by 10. More like 30 or 40.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Well, what's competitive?
Let me also be clear that I don't think he'd necessarily win such states even if he were to compete in them. I think he'd be there mostly for party building purposes.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Competitive is, idk, within 5-10 points?
I don't even think Obama would have the money to blow in that scenario, though, because if he were on his way to a 1984-style landslide, people would save their hard-earned money instead of giving it to Obama since he's going to win anyway. And in the off-chance he had money to spare, I'm pretty sure he'd be allowed to transfer it to another body?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I think he would.
Granted, he's not going to spend $40 million on a state like Wyoming were he to set up shop there. I'm not saying he's going to have unlimited funds, but if he simply raises around what he raised last time, he'd have a lot of money to spare because he wouldn't have a primary challenge. That frees up a decent chunk of change to spend however he likes.

I'm not sure of the extent that the campaign was in every single state past the primary season, if at all, or even the extent to which they were fully in the swing states as far as campaign offices and so on. Either I am missing something, or there's no one good source for all of this information, which there should be. Regardless, I suspect the bigger problem is not so much money but having enough time if he wanted to do it. Advertising is one thing, but I don't think a ground game can just appear overnight. When's the latest he could do it? June? July?

Also, just to put things in perspective, let's say he wanted to raise $100 million for the sole purpose of screwing around in red states. He'd need 400,000 people to drop just $250 each. Yes, that's a lot of money, and yes, it's not exactly a small number of people, but it's not impossible.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I think you are lot more wedded to dumping money into red states than Obama is
but that's just a guess.

Even if Obama was ahead 30 points nationally and had millions of money to fool around with, I don't think he would spend it himself. He can transfer money to the DNC, I think. just like Evan Bayh transferred money to the INDP.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
What would that accomplish?
I could certainly see he would transfer it to the DNC, but why would he do that as opposed to simply spending some of it himself, or rather the campaign spending it itself? I would think that it's almost certainly easier for a presidential campaign to shift resources to help out the party.

And yes, maybe I am more into it than Obama is. (I wish I had won that dinner in Boston with him and Pelosi. In addition to telling him that he should be ashamed of himself over Bradley Manning, I'd grill him about 2012, or so I hope. Knowing myself, I'd probably be a little starstruck.) I just appreciate the notion of being very aggressive and realize that 2012 might be the last time we get such a great fund raiser for a few cycles, so I'd like to milk the situation for all its worth.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Because if you say it's for party building
that's the DNC's job, not Obama's. Obama's goal is to get himself re-elected. You say you miss the 50-state strategy, but that was the DNC, not Obama.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I know that.
But like I said, I would think it's in some ways easier for Obama to simply shift resources. If he's got a few offices in red states already and workers already there, then they won't have to go through the trouble of setting all of that up. It also might be easier for Democrats to find volunteers if they associate themselves with the Obama campaign as opposed to Democrats in general.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
But one thing I think you're forgetting
is that the Obama campaign's singular focus on getting Obama elected means the people who volunteer aren't really interested in downballot races anyway. Most of the time their walk sheet will just ask about Obama, and in the event that it includes questions about downballot candidates, people will often just skip that part to save time. That was my experience going door-to-door for Obama in Indiana, and if you think about it, it makes sense. At least DNC staffers will be focused more on downballot races. And of course, there's also the DCCC, DSCC, and DLCC.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I realize that can be a problem.
Whatever the case, I feel like we are splitting hairs to some degree. Put it this way: if it looks like he's going to win and he has a lot of extra money, neither of which seem outlandish to suggest even at this point, I feel as if the campaign will make a play for some long shot states and/or party build build, even if it doesn't do all of the work itself.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Well, in theory it's not outlandish
but for Obama to be spending in McCain's second-best state, there would have to be a Republican snafu beyond our wildest imagination.

Also, while it's one thing to start spending in Arizona and Georgia if he's ahead, Obama would be wise not to get complacent and to keep pushing in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, etc until the very end.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
I guess so.
I feel like we are done with this topic for this thread. There is something related to it that I will be posting tomorrow, but I'd like some more people to give me their thoughts, so I will save anything more that I have to say until then.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Definitely.
If there's one thing I really miss about Howard Dean's tenure at the DNC, it's the 50 States Project.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
Newt Gingrich v. Democrats
Say what you want about Newt Gingrich, but when he said that the Republicans needed to win big (i.e. 13 senate seats and an additional 40 House seats) to get things done, I had to respect his tenacity and audacity. They will not win that big, but they could get closer than we realize. I wish the Democrats had the same attitude. Dare I say we'd actually do better, since we are willing to be more flexible with our candidates.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Wyoming?
Seriously? He lost Wyoming by 32 points in 2008. Literally twice as many Wyomingites voted for Sen. McCain as voted for then-Sen. Obama.

The demographics of Wyoming are basically identical to the demographics of rural Idaho, Montana, and Colorado - throughout virtually the entire state (and Laramie and Grand Teton are way too small to compensate).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
See what I said above.
Like I said, it's basically like Reagan spending his last week in Minnesota, just  to see if he could win Mondale's home state. He was clearly going to win and he was there, in part, for shits and giggles.

It's nice to win big, and Obama is no different than any other politician in wanting to so do, so if he were to be in a position where it looks like he would do that, he could do whatever he wants, including making a play for a state as unlikely as Wyoming.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 4/22 | 134 comments

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