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IA-04: Christie Vilsack May Challenge King

by: James L.

Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 12:52 AM EDT


This report from Nathan Gonzales is pretty interesting -- and surprising:

Former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack (D) is likely to take on Cong. Steve King (R) in Iowa's new 4th Congressional District, according to a Democratic source in the Hawkeye State. Vilsack, however, has not yet made a final decision.

Vilsack hails from Mount Pleasant, which is right in the heart of the new second district, where she was rumored to be interested in running for Congress. But with Loebsack staking his claim in the 2nd CD, it looks like she's trying to avoid yet another tragic incident of Sack-on-Sack violence by exploring other options.

The 4th CD, as it stands today, is pretty tough territory: Obama lost it by 44-54, and Kerry got stomped by 39-60 back in 2004. Under the proposed lines, however, it's now a district that Obama lost by only 48-50, and even John "Who Among Us Does Not Love NASCAR?" Kerry held down 44% under these lines. In short, that's still tough terrain for a Democrat, but it's significantly more fertile than before; with King's penchant for letting his freak flag fly and a credible opponent working against him, this could be an interesting race.
James L. :: IA-04: Christie Vilsack May Challenge King
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IA-04: Christie Vilsack May Challenge King | 91 comments
Wow
If true, this would really be one of the marquee House races of 2012.

Hometown: PA-8, Currently: CA-30.
Alt. Delegate to the CA DEMs from the 41st Assembly District.
Steve King is an oppo researcher's wet dream
Seriously, it'll be a matter of "which Steve King quote makes him look the absolute, most batshit crizzy-craziest" in attack ads and such, instead of "can we find something to make him look kinda crazy right-wing?"

Like, maybe, the time he said that "history has shown" that Joseph McCarthy was a "hero for America." Yeah, the red-baiting, crusading "have you no decency, sir?" McCarthy.

How about this one if Obama was elected President...
"...if he is elected president, then the radical Islamists, the al-Qaida, the radical Islamists and their supporters, will be dancing in the streets in greater numbers than they did on September 11 because they will declare victory in this War on Terror."  

Speaking of, how about the time he defended terrorism when the dude flew his plane into an IRS building in Texas:
"It's sad that the incident happened down in Texas, but by the same token, the IRS is an agency that is unnecessary and when the day comes that that is over and we've abolished the IRS, it will be a happy day for all Americans."

Or howsabout just out-and-out admitting he's a tool of lobbyists:
"Lobbyists do a very effective and useful job on this Hill ...There's a credibility there in that arena that I think somebody needs to stand up for the lobby, and it is a matter of providing a lot of valuable information."

Steve King makes Sharron Angle look like a paragon of normalcy and rational thought. And at least she was smart enough to run away from the press, instead of towards them....

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Very good.
Some activist in Iowa needs to set up an anti-King website with all that shit gathered in one place.
Then that can be used as a common destination point for a Googlebomb effort next year.
[ Parent ]
If Vilsack can run
A Harry Reid-type campaign, she can win. If she goes the Ron Klein route, then I don't think it will happen.
[ Parent ]
What do you mean by the Ron Klein route?
Overly cautious and defensive?
[ Parent ]
Sorta
Not to speak for DavidNYC, but a lot of Klein's attacks were on relatively inconsequential, small-ball shit, like West's record of tax liens. Yawn.

He left THE CRAZY mostly untouched. Harry Reid went for the jugular -- early and often!

[ Parent ]
Yeah, you got it exactly right, Jimmy Hell
I groused about this many times last year. If you're lucky enough to run against someone crazy, you gotta talk about how crazy they are!
[ Parent ]
I thought Creigh Deeds...
did just that with Bob McDonnell's thesis.  But that seemed to go over Virginians with little more than a yawn.  But then, McDonnell didn't have the overt appearance of being crazy, having already been elected to statewide office.
[ Parent ]
"McDonnell didn't have the overt appearance of being crazy"......
Yup, that's it.

Swing voters are reflexively skeptical of a candidate's/party's claims that an opposing party's candidate is crazy, however communicated.

Harry Reid found this out firsthand, when his campaign focus groups of swing voters expressed skepticism when initially told some of the extremist things Sharron Angle had said.  But when the audio or video was played, with Sharron herself talking, they believed it.

Swing voters tune out attacks because they know there is always a lot of hyperbole and intentional misdirection in attack narratives and attack ads.  So they evaluate everything through their internal bullshit meter.

So if you're going to paint your opponent as crazy, you've got to have the goods on him/her for real.  If you don't have audio or video, then other public comments, news reports, whatever, must be there.

With McDonnell, the thesis and a trickle few right-wing votes cast as a state legislator were it.  McDonnell is careful, he knows much of what he believes is offensive and insulting to swing voters.  So he keeps much of it to himself.  That's smart politics, and it's almost impossible to overcome and persuade voters he's crazy.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Klein had the goods on West
The guy had just as public a record as Angle - radio interviews, TV interviews, YouTube videos he made himself! This was nothing like the McDonnell situation.
[ Parent ]
Oh I agree, I wasn't commenting on West at all there......
I was commenting only on McDonnell.

Agree totally on West, Klein really blew it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Could backfire
Tell that to Jack Conway...

Hometown: PA-8, Currently: CA-30.
Alt. Delegate to the CA DEMs from the 41st Assembly District.
[ Parent ]
The difference
Harry Reid went after policy positions that Angle advocated.

Jack Conway's famously ill received attack was bringing up Paul's behavior in college.  His earlier attacks about Meth, a policy position, were actually well received, in Eastern Kentucky especially, where he did well on election day.

Voters are willing to forgive past indiscretions, so Conway looked desperate and flailing.  Reid went after Angle's political beliefs hard from day one.  No real comparision there.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Aqua Buddha was a weird college "prank"
Allen West and Sharron Angle would regularly stay stuff during the campaign which was outright insane. I really don't think they are comparable. (And I also am of the apparently minority view that I don't think Aqua Buddha had much if any effect on the outcome. Was a Dem ever going to win that race in 2010?)
[ Parent ]
Absolutely
Conway only had a chance so long as he could focus the race on Paul and how flawed a candidate he was.  It's not like Conway would have won by hammering away on economic issues and running against national Republicans and I think a lot of Democrats forget that.  Was the Aqua Buddha ad successful? Of course not, but it's not like it cost Conway the race.

I'm pretty sure that Trey Grayson would have taken Conway to the cleaners by 20 points if he had won the primary.

NC-06/NC-04

[ Parent ]
You are pretty much right
Aqua Buddha was a Hail Mary. Conway was fading and really he had no choice but to roll the dice and hope it worked. It failed; it was seen by most as a cynical attempt to smear Paul. But it didn't cost him the race. I think the results of the race would've been about the same with or without the AB ad. The race itself was very winnable until the national climate went completely to Hell, though.  

20, Democrat, KY-01
[ Parent ]
West
People in FL-22 were well aware of West's brand of crazy, but for the most part they liked it.  Things like his war record - which I understand many here would think was a negative - was actually a positive for large numbers of voters.  To me, his biggest misstep was hanging out with the loony bikers, but then the other side tried to make too much of it.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Your statements
Lack factual support. They are just assertions.
[ Parent ]
Well
Well, West was elected, wasn't he?  I assure you, his controversial statements did not go uncovered in the press down here.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Regardless of that....
he's doomed after redistricting, where its Shaw-mander will finally be undone.  He can't win a D+7 district.

And also, Klein lost because he was too nice and not effective enough.  He should have followed the Harry Reid strategy in how to attack an opponent whose political beliefs are fairly in line with someone like Geert Wilders.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
And when I say "can't"
I mean that it's a district that will be an entirely different animal and won't be one where the GOP narrowly outnumbers Dems in voter registration.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Redistricting
There is no question that West might wind up in a much less friendly district.  Really, until the courts get done ruling on lawsuits, it's impossible to speculate what he'll be facing.  I still think it's going to be an ugly district thanks to FL-23 coming down the railroad tracks the way it does - and that really can't be changed.  But I have no idea how the Gold Coast is going to look next election.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
But there's no way
it will end up being nearly as un-compact as it is now.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wi...


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Only
Only if the Clean Districts admendment gets struck down by the courts.  And even if that happens, I think the FL GOP will be careful about drawing exceptionally ugly districts, but I do think West could win a D+2 district with the right campaign.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
West
There is no way he could win a D+2 district in anything other than an environment like 2010.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Touche
It's possible to take solace in the fact that he won't be elected again in anything resembling the same district because of redistricting.  The man is mind-bogglingly hateful.  And I'm sure the flirting with being Trump's running mate will help.  

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
I had a feeling that might be your response
Obviously, you are free to make whatever arguments you like, but that doesn't mean they are convincing. I am certainly not going to buy an argument that just because the press covered something means average voters were aware of it. If that were the case, then why would campaigns ever spend money on paid media?

I could just as easily argue that West's craziness was not well know enough and that's part of what enabled him to win. And indeed, that is my argument, because one fact we do know is that Ron Klein shied away from highlighting West's insanity in his TV ads.

In short, press coverage != voter knowledge.

[ Parent ]
I agree
I have a hard time seeing how his irresponsible behavior as a military commander, his incoherent rants, and his threatening behavior towards Klein could have been easily swallowed and applauded by such a moderate district.
[ Parent ]
.
Things like his war record - which I understand many here would think was a negative
um, paint with a broad brush much?

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
I don't think he was referring to military service in general
Just Allen West's particular record in the military, which many people would consider to be "war criminal"
[ Parent ]
Generally people who torture civilians...
Are war criminals, yeah.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
To most
But perhaps to the GOP faithful, who need super manly men to turn back the Muslamic hordes and help them sleep at night, it may be a plus.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
And the Tinklenberg route
I was extremely disappointed that not a single ad called out Bachmann on her divide Iraq in three nonsense and the ads pertaining to the anti-American stuff was only eluded to with no, look at what this crazy bitch is saying!

Oh well, at least in Tink's case we all can guess that he would've went down pretty hard in 2010.

[ Parent ]
IRS attack
I remember when that happened and no one cared cause it was a white guy who flew the plane. Yup, we sure do have a 'liberal' media.

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
If true, this would be awesome.
Finally, a true chance to take down Steve King, one of the most odious men in Congress.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
You
took the words out of my mouth.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Speaking of... Hey, SSP Gay Caucus
We really need to rally the LGBT community on this race if Vilsack jumps in. It's easily our best shot at knocking out one of Congress's most vehement homophobes. We're never going to get a better chance to beat him like an ignorant drum, quite frankly. And let's be real, all of the other major haters have seats that are just too red to mount a serious challenge.

Still, the guy has to be at the top of the list of most homophobic members of Congress. Seriously. My top five would be...
1) Steve King
2) Michelle "5000 Years of Recorded History" Bachmann
3) Virginia "Matthew Shepard=Hoax" Foxx
4) Louie "Gay=Bestiality=Necrophilia...sounds like fun!" Gohmert
5) Jason "No Gay Marriage for DC because I say so" Chaffetz

If she runs against him, we gotta make sure the gheys back Ms. Vilsack to the hilt. I'm talking Gillibrand-style makeover, lesbian tractor cavalcade escort, Lady-Gaga-or-P!nk-authored campaign theme song, a gaggle of top-flight PR flacks and YouTube auteurs and heroic Latino interns, and most of all, enough pink dollars to fill a friggin' silo....  

So watch out, Steve King, because I'm proposing that the new #1 item on the gay agenda is to knock you out of Congress in two snaps flat. Can I get a second on that motion? Can I get a witness? And can I get an Amen, my LGBT brothers and sisters?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I would caution on not going overboard, but I do think that national gay rights groups should make this THE marquee House race of 2012.

Along with the VA Senate race, gay rights groups should definitely drop a cool million doing something like this, ESPECIALLY considering the optics of it, located in the only state in the "heartland" that affords marriage rights to all citizens.

If Solmonese doesn't have the balls to do it, I feel like Socarides should stop berating the President on the national news circuit every chance he gets and lead the national fundraising to oust THE most bigoted member of Congress since Jesse Helms.

21, male,TX-08 (home), LA-06 (college, voting)

[ Parent ]
But would that play well in IA-04?
I could easily see King's people turning it around with an "out-of-state gay groups spending money to influence our election" type of message.

How do folks in IA-04 actually feel about gay marriage and gay rights?  I mean, King proudly wears his homophobia on his sleeve, and has managed to CRUSH his opponents.  Is this new IA-04 that much more turned off to overt gay-bashing?  Because it sure seems like the old one didn't seem to care, if not outright supported gay-bashing.

[ Parent ]
Yea
I'm GOP and I don't even like Steve King.  As long as the GOP were to hold congress, I wouldn't be sorry seeing him go down.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
So I told my girlfriend today that her new congressman would be King.
She thinks he's crazy so she was pretty disgusted. I told her I hoped Vilsack would run against him instead of against Loebsack. What do you know, I guessed right! Too bad my predictions aren't right everytime.

Anyway, I like our chances of beating King with the new lines. Tom Vilsack was pretty popular right? Maybe she can win over some Republicans that liked her husband when he was in office.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

I'm calculating Tom's % in 2002 right now
It was a good Democratic win in a Republican year so I think that race may tell us a lot.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
This is definitely what she should do
The new seat is about R+5, which is within the realm of what is winnable for a Democrat and King is wacky enough where some voters might sway to Vilsack.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Fantastic news if it holds true
Bonus would be for King to respond to a legitimate challenge by becoming even more shrill.  That won't just hurt him, but all Iowa Democrats and the red nominee for Prez.
Tom Vilsack narrowly won the new 4th in 2002
He won 49.29% to 48.12%.  The fact that her husband won the district in a bad year for Dems is probably a good sign that the district has some regard for the Vilsacks.  Hopefully a Steve King freakout can help a bit especially with people not used to him.


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


I'd have some caution about that
First of all, thank you for going to the trouble of calculating the new margin. And the fact that it's close is predictive to a degree, others have said the new 4th would be about R+5? (within the realm of what a moderate Dem can win?)

But as you show, Tom Vilsack's 2002 margin in the new 4th was very narrow, and the fact he had a margin at all is negated by two more things. Governor Vilsack was an incumbent, whereas to an extent here, King will be the incumbent and Christie Vilsack will be a carpet-bagger. Also, while 9/11 meant that the Republicans managed the feat of gaining seats at the federal level in a midterm year in 2002, it masked the fact that at the state level, Dems held their ground, making an ever-so slight net gain and picking up some difficult states (AZ, KS, OK, TN and WY). Classic example of state v federal voting splits among red-staters, in other words, meaning that Tom's re-election peformance in the 4th doesn't neccesarily create much goodwill for Christie in a congressional bid.

[ Parent ]
Vilsack won't be a carpetbagger at all......
Much of the district is new counties King never represented, so she's no more a carpetbagger than him to campaign there.

And Vilsack isn't identified by her home, she's a statewide figure.

On top of all that, a "carpetbagger" label doesn't really stick in Iowa.  The state is largely homogenous culturally, and district boundaries are purely artificial constructs.  There is an east-west divide in the politics, but the new IA-04 straddles that divide, with the many new eastern counties likely to be horrified by King.

There are good reasons to think King still has an extremely slight edge, but Vilsack not living in this district is not among them.

The keys to this race are pretty straightforward.  First, how big can Vilsack run up the margins in the eastern counties that has never had, as well as the few Democratic-leaning counties in the western part?  Second, who is the GOP Presidential nominee?  If it's someone who is toast almost from the start or otherwise runs a horrible campaign, then King's turnout is depressed in his favored counties.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Vilsack will be a
carpetbagger. She is from Mount Pleasant which is in the new second district.  

TX-13,22,Dem
[ Parent ]
No she's not, did you read the other comments?......
She's not identified with Mount Pleasant in voters' minds.  She's a statewide figure, no one cares what her hometown is.

And Iowa is culturally largely homogenous, no one in IA-04 will think, "Mount Pleasant?!  Carpetbagger!"  There's nothing about Mount Pleasant that makes it different from Webster City or Clear Lake.

She's not a carpetbagger, no one will think that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The Former First Lady
Let us not forget that she was the former first lady of all of Iowa, not just Mount Pleasant. Besides, Iowans are a pretty pragmatic bunch, I think they would just be happy to have a real choice between Steve "Jesus Hates Healthcare Reform" King and Ms. Christy "I am reassuringly normal" Vilsack.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
I am not against Vilsack running
However, under the definition that I have read "It's modern usage refers to any outsider who moves into an area to seek political power at the expense of the locals." She is a Carpetbagger. Will people see her that way? Who nos  

TX-13,22,Dem
[ Parent ]
How do you define "outsider," and how is it at the expense of the locals?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
She is not from the
district and she has never lived in the district. Even if you go as far as to say she is from Des Moines that is still not the new 4th.  

TX-13,22,Dem
[ Parent ]
Tell that to McClintock, Bono Mack, and Diaz-Balart.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Bottom line, buff
She has every right to run where she pleases.  In fact, it's ideal that she doesn't have a heated primary against any incumbent Dem and instead works to give us a shot at 4-0.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Thanks for answering my question


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I think that will not be much of a problem
It's not like she's held office before and built a specific base of support as far as region goes. She can come into it as a first time candidate and build up a foundation of support. If people like her and her platform, then her having never previously lived in the district won't be an issue.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Exactly, what sapelcovits said
Also, if there's a better local candidate, let him or her step up and beat Vilsack in the primary. For example, while I love me some Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, Council Bluffs is in IA-03. Iowa Democrats, at least, should be praising Vilsack for hoeing the tough row instead of primarying an incumbent, because I think our bench in the new fourth is pretty weak, no?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Er, what sapelcovits said
What sapelcovits said when he asked how one defines "outsider" and how it might hurt locals, that is...

Darn formatting is getting in the way of my point.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I wondered if she would
Considering the district is a bit more Dem than the old IA-05. How does she plan to establish a base, though? Mount Pleasant is a heck of a long way from IA-04.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.
Referring to Mount Pleasant as her "home" is badly misleading at this point......
Her name rec comes from being a recent former 2-term Governor's wife.  The state capital being in Des Moines, that's where she's most identified with.  I'd be surprised if she's still registered to vote in Mount Pleasant.  This is why the talk about her running focused on challenging Boswell in the Polk County-based district.

Vilsack can move to Story County (I'm guessing that's what she does) just a stone's throw from Des Moines, and she'll be fine running up there.

Regarding how tough the district is, I don't want to understate that.  Any conventional Republican incumbent should be considered safe in this newly-drawn seat.  And King might be no worse than 50-50, I bet you could call this "lean R," or at least "tossup/tilt R," right out of the gate.  Remember that King always surpassed 60% in his reelections, so those counties in the new IA-04 he retains from before mostly are very hard right.

A commenter above pointed to Tom winning the new IA-04 counties by a bare plurality in 2002.  But that was his reelection when he was very popular against a weak GOP nominee, Doug Gross.  The Republicans were really offering just a sacrificial lamb that time, they had no chance to beat Vilsack with anybody.  And still Tom barely won this compilation of counties.

Christie Vilsack's key is to outperform a normal Democrat in the new counties in IA-04, the ones King has never had.  I was born and raised in Ames my first 14 years and went to college there, and I can tell you Story County is a place where Christie needs to run up a huge margin to have a chance to win.  Story is Democratic, but Christie needs to surpass 60% there and maybe even get a 2-to-1 margin vs. King.  That's doable, King is that toxic and Christie likely that popular with the Democratic base and a skilled campaigner, but she has to actually do it.  Same thing in Boone, Webster, Hamilton, and Cerro Gordo.  These are populated counties that have never seen King on a ballot, and Vilsack needs big margins.  This is also where Obama helps immensely, since his turnout machine will be in overdrive in central and north central Iowa.

I will say this, a lot might depend on the top of the ticket for the GOP.  If they nominate a Pawlenty or someone else passable (although Pawlenty is the only one running who I think is passable), then it's tougher for Vilsack, he helps King.  But if Pawlenty is the nominee and runs a lousy campaign, or someone else who can't be taken seriously is the nominee, that's going to hurt King and help Vilsack.  Turnout in King's loyal counties in NW Iowa is key for him, especially since they're entirely rural counties.  If they're depressed because their party nominated a sure loser, then this seat becomes lean D.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't discount the Mount Pleasant thing
I'd agree with everything else you said, but I'd point out that Vilsack announced his short-lived '08 bid there. And watch this vid by Christie on his behalf in the campaign, where she puts a lot of emphasis on the Vilsacks' roots in Mount Pleasant:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

[ Parent ]
None of this matters, voters in IA-04 won't care and won't think "carpetbagger"......
As I've said elsewhere in this thread, Iowa is a culturally homogenous state, there's no geographic resentment from one side to another.

Mount Pleasant is no different from Webster City or Clear Lake.

This is not going to matter to voters at all.

Now, I won't be shocked if the NRCC tries to make something of it, but it won't stick.  I bet state Republicans don't bother with it, I'm guessing they're smart enough to know that it won't stick.  But if they do try it anyway, I'm quite confident it won't stick..

Mount Pleasant is about as threatening to folks in other corners of Iowa, as Peoria is to folks in other corners of America...that is to say, not at all.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
A great comparable would be to Hillary
Vilsack has probably great gravitas all over the state, as did Hillary nationwide and Hillary was able to use it win a US Senate seat in a state I don't think she had ever even lived in.  Vilsack probably comes with even better inherent advantages than Hillary due to it all being within the same state.
[ Parent ]
About Hillary
I was thinking the same thing.

There was a huge stink from Lazio et al. about Hillary being a carpetbagger. That's why she did the "listening tour" and spent so much time in Upstate NY.

Maybe Vilsack should pull a similar move.  

26, gay male, Democrat, WA-07, born and raised in FL-16

[ Parent ]
She was First Lady for 8 years
her base is statewide now.  
[ Parent ]
Considering the spate of teabagging last year...
I'm quite happy that the Democrats appear to have averted a sack-on-sack incident.

I'll get my coat...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

This
is GREAT news. I did not want to see her primary anyone. I really like Loebsack. This is a win-win solution. You know this map has the potential to be full Democrat, for a  time anyway. I suspect that if Vilsack runs and wins she will run for the Senate in either 2014 or 2016. I'm not complaining at all though, if Steve King got defeated I would be giddier than a school girl. In fact if Vilsack does run I think I'll throw some coy her way.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Can you imagine beating King and Bachmann leaving the House to run for Pres?
It could get even better if Mike Pence runs for governor and loses... although the House Republicans would still have plenty of other self-absorbed crackpots to put in front of cameras.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
.
My takedown list also adds Ryan.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
I have a feeling
she'd be gearing up for Gubernatorial run. Unless Harkin retires, which I don't see him doing in 2014. She'd be a bit old for a Freshman Senator, and she'd have to get by Bruce Braley first.

I do like this move though, if it turns out to be accurate. Because even though she'd probably have an easier, (but still difficult), path to the House by challenging 3-term incumbent Loebsack in the Democratic leaning IA-02, in this way she takes the team player route and goes after King, in a race that could be become the biggest marquee race in the state's history; I imagine that both King and Vilsack could turn this into a national race with the teabagger and netroots fundraising networks, and that both could conceivably raise and spend nearly 3 million dollars.

Her electoral path to victory isn't that hard. She just needs to win swingish, but conservative leaning Woodbury county with about 54% of the vote, take 60% in Story, and perform strongly in Cerro Gordo, Webster, Kossuth, Palo Alto, Crawford--basically all the rural areas that Obama carried in this configuration of IA-04. I think she can definitely do it, especially against someone like King, who isn't just conservative, but is truly abrasive. I foresee it becoming a "Mild-mannered, moderate librarian and public activist against a raving, angry partisan" race, in which case I feel Christie Vilsack can win over conservative-leaning independents merely by appealing to the personality aspect of politics.

[ Parent ]
Here:
Is my take on this - If Vilsack is really going to challenge King, this race is going to be reminiscent of the 1996 matchup between then-Rep. Robert Dornan (a King-like firebrand) and Loretta Sanchez. We all know what happened there.

Sanchez is now an entrenched incumbent in district that's been made more Democratic. I hope this King-Vilsack race comes to fruition - it'd be classic.

[ Parent ]
Bad example
That was a case of a rapidly diversifying suburban district realigning. I think this race have a rather unique set of characteristics that will make it memorable in general.  
[ Parent ]
i think you hit the nail on the head
she took the team player route.  rather than force a potentially disastrous primary, based not on ideology or policy, but egos, she took a leap of faith to challenge an odious incumbent.  huzzah for her!

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
$3 million dollars?
If Bachmann can raise $15 million, than her tea-bagging second in commands should be able to raise at least half that.  And Vilsack would be the first woman ever elected from Iowa so her versus a fire-breathing tea-bagger should make this far bigger than just your usual marquee House race and more on a Senate-race level.
[ Parent ]
this would be amazing


22, male, VA-10
An 8 point swing in the Dem direction
is quite a bit for a very conservative incumbent like King to handle.  I guess he shouldn't be surprised though, he knew his counties were losing population and he would have to expand out geographically, especially with the state losing a district.

Still, I think he might have been counting on still having all the counties on the western border, instead of his district being split horizontally now and having to eat up even more Dem-leaning central Iowa districts.  We can beat him.

4th District Population
FWIW the only county in the new 4th that is experiencing any real growth over the last decade is Dem leaning Story County (12% growth, 57-41 Obama). Of the remaining 38 counties  32 lost population and the other 6 had growth of 6% or less). If those trends continue the district could become slightly less Republican over time.

BTW I was born in this District (Sac County) and still have relatives there. A lot of old very conservative people in that part of the state, including my relatives.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
I've known people from Sac City, and did you know Obama WON Sac City?.....
Not the county obviously, Obama got crushed in the countryside.

But Sac City went narrowly for Obama.

My best friend's dad was from Sac City, he knew it well, and he was shocked Obama carried it.  My friend's dad, having grown up there, was one of the only Democrats in his family.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
We moved away when I was 4
My family farmed outside of the small town of Odebolt until I was about 4 and then we moved to Minnesota. I have only been back there a few times since my grandparents passed away 25+ years ago. My remaining relatives in that part of the state have moved to the Storm Lake area.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
If she does well there...
Will they rename it VILsacK County?
[ Parent ]
Vilsack
I was very doubtful this was gonna happen.  I lived in this district from 1977-2001 and my mother still does.  Curious to see if she really pulls the trigger.  I guess I am a little bit of a naysayer both on whether she will do this and her chances if she does.  I agree the carpetbagging thing won't be a huge problem for her but the problem will be that she has to expand beyond her base.  If she had deep roots in part of the district she could count on some local crossover support.  I mean I am glad King is being targeted but I'm not sure just being a wife of an elected official and never having run an election is the recipe to knock off a GOP incumbent in a GOP district.  Plus believe me the very large Republican base here will be super motivated even if Obama is easily carrying the state. King would love nothing more then to set up a narrative of a liberal wife of an Obama cabinet secretary coming in to steal this seat away from him with out of state money...he will play this up big.
Problem for King is that he'll get virtually no swing voters......
King has an appeal only to the Republican regulars.

That's been enough the past couple configurations of his district.

I would love to know what percentage of 2008 voters came from the counties in the new IA-03 that King has never represented.  I bet it's pretty high.  And if Vilsack is competent, King will get crushed there.

I don't doubt the conservative base will be motivated.  But the point is they're too few to decide the election.  A R+5 district is going to be rough for King pretty much every cycle.  Any conventional Republican would crush any Democrat in this district, but King has zero appeal to swing voters or soft Dems.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
And being the wife of a Cabinet Secretary...
Might have some appeal to indies and moderate GOP for the connections directly to the White House from their Rep.  I can't imagine moderate Republicans like voting for King.  I know I wouldn't like voting for Alan Grayson or Dennis Kucinich, and would probably vote for a sane Republican with direct connections directly to the White House, even if it would just be for one term in hopes a fresh new Dem would run in 2014.  

So they vote for Christie Vilsack, it's a two year gig and come 2014 maybe somebody other than King would run for the GOP.  

[ Parent ]
I'm not counting on Vilsack getting crossover support beyond the standard token amount......
Those moderate GOPers who hate King will still hold their noses and vote for him.  That's the kind of polarization we have today.

But Iowa is a state with a large percentage of true swing voters, people who consistently vote for both Harkin and Grassley whenever one of them is up.  King's previous districts had too many Republicans, and not enough swing voters, to endanger him.  But that's not true in the new IA-04, and the only way King does as well as he needs with those swing voters, given how toxic he is personally, is to destroy Christie Vilsack's public image.  I hope Christie is ready for that, she better be prepared.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Not just that...
but being the wife of the Agriculture Secretary.  From what I've heard, agriculture's kind of a big deal in Iowa.  ;-)

How much of a role would that play?

[ Parent ]
What makes this great, compared to how Bachmann fairs in her district
Is that Bachmann can always rely on the Indy Party draining at least 4%-5% of the "anybody but Bachmann" vote, thus making it so she can probably always win, even with only 46% of the vote.  King won't have that type of advantage and the "anybody but King" vote will almost assuredly all go to the Democrat instead of third parties.  Plus, Vilsack being a solid, female candidate in a state that severely lacks this is in itself a compelling candidate versus policy reason for Indy's to move in her direction.
[ Parent ]
Hopefully, this is a trend that continues
I wonder how much we're going to see in the next few months of grade-A names getting into house races that, at the outset, look like long-shots. You have to think, especially in a state like Iowa, you're looking at a weak top-of-the-ticket on the Republican side.

I mean, if Mitt Romney is the nominee, is Steve King's base really going to be fired up?

26, Male, Senior Economics Adviser, United States Senate (D-OK)

The anti-union legislation
being pushed by Republicans in the Midwest is probably also luring Democratic contenders in those states, as it has the potential to flip the turnout dynamic next November.
[ Parent ]
Well, someone should give a shout out
to that "Sack-on-Sack violence" joke. Kudos.
IA-04: Christie Vilsack May Challenge King | 91 comments

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