Wow. Just wow...

Boswell v. Latham?

What say the native Iowans here? Can Boswell hold IA-03?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 16:38:43 PM UTC

Can he hold it sure

Former Iowa resident 1977-2004.  Can Boswell hold this district sure.  I do see it as a difficult hold though.  Polk is 57% of the population but Boswell moved into Polk and really hasn't been a great fit: old, country boy, blue dog.  Most the base in Polk is far more progressive and kinda just hold their noses and vote for him waiting for him to retire.  Polk also is not uniformly blue.  The fastest growing suburbs and exurbs in the north and west spilling over into neighboring Dallas are very red.  All the counties attached to Polk in this district are either red leaning or very red.  Latham plays well with both the country club/white collar type Republicans in Polk and the rural Republicans (his Latham seed corn is well known). He also has a ton more money then Bos but I'm sure a couple Harkin/Obama fundraisers would help.  Latham never moved into a district before he only moved within his district from his farm in Alexander to Ames.  This will be the first time he moved into a district to run, Boswell already did this last go around.  Also NO major universities or student populations are located in the district that may turn out for Obama and few minorities outside of Des Moines proper.  Basically Latham will be the best funded strongest candidate Boswell has ever met in a less Democratic district than he represents now (and Boswell has struggled in his current more friendly district in Dem years like 2006).  So yes Boswell can will but I'm not bullish.  One bright spot will be that St Sen Mike Gronstal the Sen Maj Leader be running in the swingy Council Bluffs area and he is an absolute genius turning out the vote for him since 1984 in some difficult terrain so this may help Boswell on the margins.  All other St Senate and House districts between Polk and Council Bluffs are usually blowouts by the GOP and the Dems often don't field candidates in many of them so Latham may run up margins there

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by: hawkeye77 @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 18:38:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes Boswell can win

Congressman Boswell may actually be our best hope of holding on to the district. He has represented a lot of the rural areas of the new 3rd district in the past and his blue dog-ish politics and folksy style would play better out there. As an incumbent Congressmen he can also raise a lot more money than a new candidate especially now that he has a real challenge.

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by: jriowa @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 19:16:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not a native

But I did spend some time in Polk County for Obama. The Rs are really crazy, I do think Boswell could win given that he survived 2010.

22, male, VA-10

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by: Bharat @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 16:40:43 PM UTC

Hi Rep. Latham!

Welcome to the shitty real estate market!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 16:41:12 PM UTC

Not shitty

If you're buying!

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by: davybaby @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 03:09:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ames?

All the article says is that Latham lives in Story County does that mean Ne-vey-da or Ames or what? I'm a native Iowan by the way.  

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by: hankmeister @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 16:54:50 PM UTC

Google broken for ya? ;)

Wikipedia says Ames.

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by: DavidNYC @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:16:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This guy will have moved twice, across the state

Started in Franklin County, I believe, now in Story... then where?  He keeps moving southwest so he can stay in Congress.  Seems pretty absurd.

If you take the 2008 congressional results for each county, overall the generic Dem would have won in the new district due to Polk.  However, neither King nor Latham had really strong opponents.

I'm not a native but I have lots of friends up there and go at least once a year - hint - a big bike ride in July!

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

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by: app state @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:08:47 PM UTC

His moving will.be irrelevant

This race just got really expensive though.

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by: rdw72777 @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:24:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Boswell moving

FWIW- I believe Boswell moved to Des Moines 10 years ago during the last round of redistricting. I believe he's really from the new 2nd District.  

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by: nathanlgonzales @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:29:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're right, he did

I guess my point is moving twice seems a little desperate and I think we could make a message out of it.  "Does this guy care about who he represents or does he just want to be in Congress" kinda thing.  Moving twice can be a little bit of an issue if we make it so.  At least Boswell has roots in Southern Iowa that he could play up.

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

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by: app state @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 18:24:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He didn't move between districts first time

Latham never moved between districts the first time. He moved from his farm in Alexander to the largest city in the district mid-term several years back but both were in the same district and wasn't for political reasons (I think he said he wanted to live closer to his grandkids). Personally I think he wanted to live a little closer to civilization and the Des Moines airport.  But this is the only time now that he has moved between districts just as Boswell did last time.  I think Latham also is a better fit with Polk then Boswell is...Latham is slick, telegenic, articulate...Boswell is a kinda brusque, country good ol' boy that many progressives roll their eyes at.

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by: hawkeye77 @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 18:48:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Boswell will be lucky to have Obama backing

him up.

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by: SC @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:12:30 PM UTC

Not that surprising

King would beat Latham in a primary and it's always been obvious that, somehow, Boswell and Latham would face off since the state needs two Democratic districts in the east and a Republican district in the west.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

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by: Nathaniel90 @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:16:58 PM UTC

Latham does seem to be

between a rock and a hard place. He'll only get around 128,000 of his old constituents from three counties but I guess that's better than retirement for him.

23, flaming Male, currently in WA-07, raised in UT-02  

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by: speitzer @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:31:35 PM UTC

Who's running for the dems in the 4th?

The district is significantly bluer than the old 5th, we need to give King a strong challenge.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:31:57 PM UTC

Vilsack?

I'd really like Christine Vilsack to give up running in IA-02 and challenge King. The district's different enough from the old 5th, and he's extreme enough that she could overcome the Republican tilt of the district. Plus Loebsack can focus on winning the general.

Male, 26, MA-08 (hometown MI-06). Independent progressive, Christian.

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by: bumiputera @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:49:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

IA4

If the Dems can find a Collin Peterson type I like their chances against King in the new IA4. It's about R+5, just like Peterson's district.

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:32:38 PM UTC

Yeah, the DCCC needs to recruit this time around.

No more sacrificial lambs this time around.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:40:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

mn-7 vs. ia-4

She difference is the dfl has a solid bench in the 7th. The Iowa democrats have nearly zero bench in the 4th

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

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by: OGGoldy @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:44:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DavidNYC, you haven't kept up with Iowa discussions here in recent weeks......

There is nothing "unexpected" about this.

On the contrary, the surprise would've been Latham doing anything else, whether challenging King in a primary or simply retiring.

This was always the most likely scenario.

And I would rate this rate out of the gate as tossup/tilt D, based on Boswell already representing most of the new district's voters, and the fact of Obama on the ballot to help downballot Dems.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:38:47 PM UTC

Unexpected

Because I didn't think he'd announce before the new maps were even signed into law, especially on a Friday.

Anyhow, you're right - I can't possibly keep up with all the comments here. I try, but you're a chatty bunch!

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by: DavidNYC @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 17:43:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fair enough, you're right the timing is a bit surprising, but yes it tells us...

...that Branstad is going to sign the new maps.

Of course if he didn't, Latham would really be caught flat-footed.  But that's highly unlikely because while I don't know that Branstad and Latham are necessarily personally close, they are both longtime establishment Republican pols, with a long professional relationship.  Branstad wouldn't keep Latham in the dark like that, knowing it's important for Latham to know what to expect.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 18:30:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

All good points

I'd add that Jindal has signed in LA, but Landry still hasn't announced his plans. I guess everyone does things differently.

But maybe Latham doesn't have good lines of communication with Branstad, and this was his way of saying, you better sign these maps.

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by: DavidNYC @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 19:29:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Anyone think Latham might get teabagged?

I know he's popular, but most of the voters in the district are new to him and he did support the continuing resolution and has a moderate reputation.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 18:03:34 PM UTC

Huh

I like that idea. It would be hard to pull off without outside help, and I wonder if Latham has earned enough teabagger enmity for that to happen. Bob Vander Plaats unfortunately lives in the new 4th.

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by: DavidNYC @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 18:23:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Latham is Iowa's version of Frank Wolf......

Latham, like Wolf in my VA-10, is a quiet backbencher with an even temper and a discrete choice of priorities and rhetoric, and yet reliably conservative in his votes.

In short, Latham works hard at making sure no one ever raises eyebrows at him.  That doesn't make him "popular," but it makes him, far more importantly, "not unpopular."  He has no enemies.

And that is what makes it tough to teabag him.

That said, he is playing in so much brand new (to him) turf in the new IA-03 that I can picture GOPers in these counties not necessarily willing to give him a free pass.  I can imagine ambitious rural SW Iowa pols deciding to give it a shot, and perhaps getting traction based on geographic loyalty.  That's personal ambition and geographic bias more than teabaggery as far as motivation goes, but it certainly can piggyback on to teabaggery as a convenient tool.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 18:38:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree with pretty much everything you said

I doubt any established SW Iowa pol would take him on though since they usually respect the Grassley/Branstad powers that be and Latham is sitting on a crap load of money.  It would have to be a real outsider to challenge him.  A Steve Deace right wing radio type maybe.

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by: hawkeye77 @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 18:54:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

nice comparison

22, male, VA-10

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by: Bharat @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 18:54:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree with a lot of what you say

Although I don't even think that a challenge would need to come from the right, or be associated with the Tea Party. Imagine that you are an ambitious Republican state legislator from the Council Bluffs area. A seat finally opens up in your neck of the woods, and you want to run. Then a Congressman from another part of the state who has never represented your area before decides he needs to save his job, and move to the district to run. You'd be pretty ticked off, and even if your political ideology were similar to Latham, you might run on a parochial, anti-carpetbagging platform.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 19:13:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

I think that is a very plausible platform, too, because you might inspire local county parties to endorse you and give the high hat to Latham. He isn't just from the "wrong part of the district" - he's from the wrong district! If the primary is sufficiently low turnout and the local organizations are on your side, Latham will need to counteract that with a lot of money. He can do it, sure, but there won't be guarantees.

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by: DavidNYC @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 19:21:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree, but you're not actually contradicting anything I said......

I said in my original comment that any primary challenge would be based more on personal ambition combined with a geographic argument, just as you argued.  I added that the candidate could use teabaggery as a piggyback.

I suppose you're arguing that teabag piggybacking isn't even necessary.  I don't disagree.  But I also don't see why a primary challenger wouldn't grab on to it, if it's convenient.  You probably want something more to attack than just carpetbagging, something substantive helps.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 19:32:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Atlas: "Would you kindly post the new State Senate and State House maps?"

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 20:21:16 PM UTC