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SSP Daily Digest: 4/7

by: DavidNYC

Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 8:02 AM EDT


Senate:

RI-Sen: Dem Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse raised over $1 million in the first fundraising quarter, which in Rhode Island terms is a buttload. He now has $1.6 million in cash on hand, which hopefully will act as a nice deterrent to any Republican stupid enough to consider this race. You know I love concern trolling, but even I can't work myself up to goad the GOP into this one.

TX-Sen: Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert said he raised $1.1 million and threw in another $1.6 million of his own money. There are a ton of other GOP candidates, both actual and potential, in this race, so I expect this primary to be wildly expensive.

Gubernatorial:

WV-Gov: Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, who is seeking his current job on a more permanent basis, released an internal from the Global Strategy Group. It shows him at 36% and SoS Natalie Tennant at 22%, but the National Journal's writeup doesn't mention numbers for the other two or three legit Dems. The NJ also says than neither Tomblin nor Tennant have gone on the air, while Rick Thompson and John Perdue have, as we've mentioned previously.

House:

IN-08: The man I like to call F.E.C. Kenobi (aka Greg Giroux) brings us yet another candidate filing. This time it's Terry White, whom Greg describes as a "Dem lawyer/activist," seeking to run against GOP frosh Larry Bucshon. I'm pretty sure this is him. Looks like he has a background in criminal law, so apparently not a wealthy plaintiff's attorney (though he may be well-off).

Other Races:

IN-SoS: Today, a judge is expected to rule on whether a lawsuit challenging Republican Secretary of State Charlie White's eligibility to serve in office can proceed. White, the guy supposed to be protecting the integrity of his state's elections, is accused of fraudulently registering to vote.

LA-LG: Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser says he's thinking about challenging fellow Republican Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne this fall. If you watched a lot of cable TV news last year during the BP oil spill, you probably saw Nungesser's vocal complaints about the response to the crisis.

Remainders:

Washington: Vote-by-mail is now a legal requirement for all of Washington state. This isn't a big deal, though, as Pierce County was the only jurisdiction which still conducted in-person voting - the rest of WA had long gone to all-mail. Notably, the legislation still allows for ballots to be postmarked on election day, which means the state will continue its frustrating tradition of seeing election results trickle in over a period of many days. (Neighboring Oregon, the other mail-only state, requires ballots to be postmarked arrive or be or turned in on election day.)

WATN?: Ex-Rep. Curt Weldon was always a sick, crazy piece of work, and we should all be thankful that Joe Sestak turned his sorry ass out of Congress. I honestly don't think I would have ever cared enough about him to feature him in a Where Are They Now? item, except that he's managed to show up in Libya, of all places, and has written an op-ed in the New York Times in which he calls for "engagement" with Moammar Gadhafi. Reminds me a bit of Tom DeLay saying "give peace a chance" when Slobodan Milosevic was massacring Kosovars, except I think Weldon really means it. Why do I say that? Well, hop into my time capsule and take a deep dive into the SSP archives. That amazing photo-within-a-photo shows Weldon pinning a medal on Gadhafi's chest! Because the mastermind behind the Lockerbie bombing is exactly the sort of person an American elected official wants to be honoring. (I also encourage you to read that entire post just to see how twisted Weldon is.)

Redistricting Roundup:

Arkansas: Even though Dems control both houses of the state legislature (and the governor's mansion), things are at an impasse. The state Senate rejected the House plan, dubbed the "Fayetteville Finger," and adopted a different map of its own. The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette has a very helpful page where you can mouse over each of the various proposals that are under consideration, including the new Senate map. Now some heads will have to be banged together to reach a compromise.

Delaware: Don't laugh - mighty Delaware is starting up its redistricting process. Obviously this pertains only to the state lege, and lawmakers are accepting public comments and proposed plans through April 29th. So if you've worked something up in Dave's App, email House.Redistricting@state.de.us. The lege's ultimate deadline is in June.

Iowa: Leaders on both sides sound like they're coming around to the new maps created by Iowa's independent commission. The situation here reminds me of gym class in middle school. Our stereotypically sadistic teacher would ask us if we wanted to play, say, basketball - and we had to either accept the choice right there, or decide to risk taking door #2, with no chance of going back. The alternative could be dodgeball (yes!)... or it could be running laps. Faced with the possibility of doing suicide drills (that is to say, a much worse second map from the commission), Republicans and Democrats alike seem ready to play a little b-ball instead.

In any event, an advisory commission will issue recommendations on the maps by April 11th, after which the lege has three days to decide whether to accept them. If no, then the process starts all over again.

Illinois: An interesting article about an unusual tool that Dem Gov. Pat Quinn has in his arsenal, called the "amendatory veto." It sounds like it's a particularly fine-grained type of line-item veto, which could be used to make direct changes to any redistricting maps the legislature sends to the governor. Of course, Illinois is one of the few places where we're large and in-charge, and it seems that Quinn has had a productive relationship with lawmakers so far, so it's unlikely Quinn would have to use it.

Also, some SSP mapmakers have been getting love from around the Internets lately. Silver spring's awe-inspiring map gets a nice shout-out from Chicagoist, and see our Oregon item below for another one.

Louisiana: Louisiana continues to be the most vexing state to follow. On Tuesday, the state Senate adopted a "horizontal" congressional map (full-size PDF here) that was, believe it or not, authored by a Dem. (Yes, Republicans supposedly have a majority, but the President, selected by the governor, is a Dem. This is endlessly confusing.) The Senate also rejected a plan preferred by Gov. Bobby Jindal, while the House in turn rejected the Senate's map. Jindal threatened to veto any map that doesn't maintain two districts based in the northern part of the state, which suggests that the Senate plan is a non-starter. So even though Republicans would appear to control the trifecta, it seems that Louisiana's loose sense of partisan affiliation makes that mean a lot less than it would in other states.

Missouri: The GOP-controlled state House approved its new map, which essentially eliminates Dem Russ Carnahan's 3rd CD, by a 106-53 vote. This falls three votes shy of a veto-proof margin, meaning that Gov. Jay Nixon, a Democrat, could potentially wield veto power here. Three Republicans defected, but four African American Dem legislators sided with the GOP, apparently believing this map is good for Rep. Lacy Clay, who is black. (The Senate plan is very similar.)

Mississippi: A pretty amazing story, if true, from Cottonmouth blog:

This afternoon in a closed door meeting of Republican Senators, Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant told the crowd that 5th Circuit Chief Judge Edith Jones would "take care of" legislative Republicans because Gov. Haley Barbour handled her nomination to the 5th Circuit when he was in the Reagan White House. Bryant went on to regale the caucus with his opinion that Chief Judge Jones would likely appoint Judge Leslie Southwick as the judge from the 5th Circuit, and that if that happened, "Democrats would come to us looking for a deal."

In a letter to House Speaker Billy McCoy, Bryant denied making these statements, but his denial contained some weird language. Specifically, he said: "My point was that Democrats appoint federal judges and Republicans appoint federal judges, but all judges take an oath to decide cases fairly based on the law and the facts." Was he honestly giving a civics 101 lesson to benighted members of his own caucus? Why discuss this kind of thing at all?

New Jersey: The first casualty of NJ's new map is state Sen. John Girgenti (D), who earned the wrath of progressives - and a legitimate primary challenge from activist Jeff Gardner -  for his cowardly vote against marriage equality in 2009. Girgenti's hometown was placed into a district largely belonging to another incumbent, Bob Gordon. Gardner will now run for Assembly instead.

Also of interest, Patrick Murray has some partisan breakdowns of the new districts. (Click here for PDF.)

Nevada: Republicans in Nevada, like the Dems, have now filed a redistricting lawsuit, but I'm not getting it at all. If you click through to the PDF and scroll down to the prayer for relief on page nine, all you'll see is that they want to bar any elections from happening under current district lines. Nevada isn't some Southern state in the 1950s, refusing to undertake redistricting, so what gives?

Oregon: Want to give your input into the Beaver State's redistricting process? Blue Oregon has a list of public hearings. Also, Jeff Mapes of the Oregonian gives some props to SaoMagnifico's proposed map, saying they show "it's possible to draw maps that do a good job of following county lines while achieving a partisan result."

Pennsylvania: PA's state (not federal) maps are drawn by a five-member commission, whose first four members (2R, 2D) have to agree on the fifth. Pretty lulzy notion, of course, and the selection deadline has passed, so the choice will now fall to the state Supreme Court. Unfortunately, thanks to a loss a few years ago, Republicans control the court.

Texas: Another lawsuit, though this one makes a lot more sense to me. Hispanic lawmakers are suing to enjoin Rick Perry and the legislature from conducting any redistricting activities because they allege that Latinos have been undercounted by the Census, and they want those numbers corrected. I'm pessimistic about these kinds of suits succeeding, though.

Utah: State legislators are also cranking up the redistricting process here. Obviously issue #1 (and 2 and 3 and 4) will be how the new congressional map treats Dem Rep. Jim Matheson. The article doesn't say what, if any, deadlines lawmakers face, though.

Virginia: At least some Republican legislators are hopping mad about the proposed state Senate map, and are considering filing suit to block it (dunno on what grounds). If the GOP is pissed off at this plan, isn't that a good thing?

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/7
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Here's a map that overlays the WI SC results with vulnerable state senate districts
Click here for full size:  http://ericcompas.wordpress.co...



Mmm
Kapanke is toast but we knew that already. Hopper has his own problems. Forget Cowles based on this. You already knew Lazich and Grothman were safe with the polls. I suspect they put everything into taking Harsdorf, Darling and Olsen out. Of the Dems, Holperin and Hansen are in danger but we knew that already too.

[ Parent ]
Doesn't look so great


[ Parent ]
Judging by this
we could actually LOSE a seat is all we get is Kapanke and they manage to recall Holperin and Hansen.  

[ Parent ]
Eh I think turnout will be better for a partisan race that directly
has to do with the collective bargining rights bill. Yes many people got Prosser and Walkers connections and kept up with whats going on but there are at least some (specially in Milwaukee) who didn'r follow this race and/or didn't vote.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
I doubt Republicans will
be able to get enough signatures to recall any Democrats. I wonder how many people voted for Prosser because he was the incumbent.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
They raised
a measly $6K to recall Hansen, I believe.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Need to look within counties and at cities/towns
While it looks as if Prosser won Holperin's district, for Hansen it is more difficult to see because Green Bay could have voted for Kloppenberg, but the surrounding Brown county area could have gone quite Prosser.  

[ Parent ]
Also, counties are not equally populated
Although I don't know how much variation there is...I would also love a precinct map.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
I shouldn't have posted this map
It's misleading. For example, Senator Miller just stated today that JK won Hopper's district. The map doesn't reflect population differences very well.

[ Parent ]
I shouldn't have posted this map
It's misleading. For example, Senator Miller just stated today that JK won Hopper's district. The map doesn't reflect population differences very well.

[ Parent ]
Don't worry about it
As a rough guide it looks fine.

[ Parent ]
Great catch!
I rather resent being called a Democrat, as I've never registered with any party and I did not draw that map with partisan intent, but either way, it's always cool to get my own article in a midsize newspaper.

And that shout-out for Silver spring's brilliant gerrymander (which, yes, bit of partisan intent there) is well deserved. Congrats!

We're not just geeks on the internet - we're movers and shakers now! Sort of...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


If you do get a column at BlueOregon
you'll get cred more than geekdom...

Note how Mapes got the discussion right as well. I'd bet Kari's the one who told Jeff about your map/diary.


[ Parent ]
Good, so the MO map can be vetoed
and not overriden

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Can't it?
The R's can get some dems by promising them safer districts. They are only a few votes shy of veto proof as it is now, once it goes back to the state house I would think they can get some dems on board.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
What is the rhetorical opposite
Of cutting your nose off to spite your face? This is how I feel about Democrats siding with Republicans on these issues.

[ Parent ]
ummm Michael Jackson?
His nose lives on long after his body decomposed. ;)

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Not a bad analogy
Considering he torpedoed Don Cazayoux in not too dissimilar circumstances.

[ Parent ]
That race was a thriller!
Jackson didn't stop 'til he got enough to push then-Rep. Cazayoux off the wall. The result may have been bad for the Democrats, and they didn't like the way he made them feel, but I do remember the time, and there's no question Jackson got the voters to tell Cazayoux to beat it. Fortunately he's out of my life now.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
ZING


NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
What's the movie with the nose?
the one where they kept the nose of the dictator alive until they could figure out a way to clone him....

And then came the road paver...


[ Parent ]
Sleeper
Classic 70's Woody Allen  

[ Parent ]
There's also the Shostakovich opera...


28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Abstentions
I guess it depends on who the four people who didn't vote are (106-53 is only 159; there's 163 seats in MO).

[ Parent ]
That would be excellent
It's just a terrible deal. It's a 2-6 at best, and I think it looks more like a 1-6-1, with that bizarre tendril out from urban Kansas City into the land of cowpokes and porn superstore billboards (why yes, I have driven that stretch of highway).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
...
I disagree.

It is 2-5-1 at best and 2-6 at worst.

The Kansas City district is still as liberal as before, despite the bizarre tendril.


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
There is absolutely no way...
That Greater St. Louis district is retained by Rep. Carnahan. The map basically gives almost two-thirds of the Democratic precincts in St. Louis County to Rep. Clay, then forces Carnahan to eat shit in the white-collar suburbs and exurbs in the outer parts of the county and environs.

And I'd need to see some precinct data on that Kansas City district, because it really looks to me like it cracks the Democratic inner city and replaces those liberal precincts with rural and exurban precincts east of the city. Dunno if it'd be enough to get the PVI below D+4 or D+5, but I really don't think it would stay at D+8 or go any higher. So, probably Democratic for now, but Missouri appears to be trending Republican (President Obama is actually polling worse there than he is in Georgia, if the usually reliable PPP is to be believed), and I think it could get tight by the end of the decade.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
.
... Didn't I say at worst and at best? In a good environment the district is probably winnable with the right candidate. In a normal environment it probably isn't.

The Kansas City district's outlying counties are Lafayette, Saline, and Ray. The TOTAL population for all three is 80,245 - just over 10% of the district's population.

Kerry got 40% in Lafayette, 47% in Ray, and 45% in Saline.
Obama got 42% in Lafayette, 47% in Ray, and 48% in Saline.

They aren't really doing to budge the needle to any great effect.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
.
Going*

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I would say...
That Rep. Cleaver's district is at least as winnable for a good Republican candidate running a strong campaign in a favorable environment as that district throwing together Reps. Akin and Carnahan is winnable for a good Democratic candidate running a strong campaign in a favorable environment.

I don't think that makes it a 1-5-2.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
.
I disagree. Cleaver's district is D+10 now and will probably be around D+8 after redistricting. Carnahan's district is D+7 now and will probably be somewhere between R+2 and even after redistricting.

Saying that the opposing party has the same likelihood of winning in each district is like saying that a Republican can win in Pelosi's district and a Democrat can win in Arkansas. Oh, wait, Democrats CAN win in Arkansas, but Republicans can't even garner 10% against Pelosi.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
I guess we'll see, won't we?
I certainly hope you're right. Just eyeballing it, that St. Louis suburban/exurban county does not look nearly that attainable.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
.
Just eyeballing it, it looks like 80% of the new district is in St. Louis county with some area in St. Charles County.

Obama won St. Louis County (not city) with 60%, but lost St. Charles with 45%. I'm sure that the most Democratic parts of St. Louis County have been given to Clay, but that doesn't mean that the district isn't winnable for Carnahan. I'm not typically bullish on redistricting at the moment, but this is probably the one place where I'm confident that it isn't as bad as some are making it out to be.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Three of those nays were Republicans
And there were four Democrats who voted yes. So if there's a veto and an override vote, the House leadership would have to find some way to return those Republicans to the fold, while retaining the Democrats. Three of the Dems who voted yes were also on the redistricting committee and voted yes there as well.

I'd say there is a 75% chance Nixon vetoes and a 60% chance he is overridden.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
I'm aware of that.
I don't know, I'd say 50% chance of override.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Just to show you how screwed up Virginia Democrats are
a majority of the House Democrats voted for the Republican House plan.

We're used to it at this point
(Sigh)

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Sigh
Reminds me of Casey Stengel: "Can't anybody here play this game?"

Do you have a link to this?


[ Parent ]
Of course they voted for it/
The GOP House map protects the current Dem House Reps by giving them all very safe Dem districts.

The map makes sure they can have very easy re-election to their own seats!

It might keep them in the minority but the map keeps the current Dem incumbents in office.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
Doesn't bother me that much
since its part of the deal that each house will draw its own lines.

The legal challenge to the Senate lines is embarrassingly bad.  It is based on the compactness and contiguity provisions in the VA Constitution.  The only problem is the Supreme Court hasn't ever invalidated a district based on those provisions.

Specifically, Republicans are complaining that some districts are connected over water without a bridge.  However, the Court rejected that as a required under the VA Constitution here: http://www.courts.state.va.us/... (pages 12-22 cover this).  The Court also said that drawing lines based on incumbency and partisanship is o.k.  Their case is a loser.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08


[ Parent ]
46% of Mississippi Republicans think interracial marriage should be illegal
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

I think PPP asking that question knew that it may result in at least a plurality say it should be illegal.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.


.
Thats a crying damn shame. I can't believe that they asked that question at all. Some things should just be left unasked.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
It's most certainly not.
Now we know with actual data the extent with which racism excuse in Mississippi. This question should be asked in every state.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I have a few friends, one of them very close...
Who are of mixed-race background.

A result like this makes me positively livid.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
It's the most disgusting thing
I've seen in a while.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Did anyone expect a higher number?
Honestly, it is the most racially polarized state in the nation.

[ Parent ]
It's no less legitimate
than asking about whether gay marriage should be legal.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Some dude asked Tom via twitter
Why they would ask that "in this day and age". He replied because some people believe it.

[ Parent ]
At least it keeps us
from sticking out heads in the ground believing that ingrained racism was magically swept away.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Need a reminder you're on the right team?
Just take a look at numbers like this.

And if you want an idea of just how well Gov. Haley "Boss Hogg" Barbour is gonna play nationwide, take a look at his numbers juxtaposed with that plurality opposition to interracial marriage.

I'll crib from someone else to say: Republicans want to take their country back. We want to move our country forward.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Thank you, PPP
FU, 46% of Mississippi Republicans.

[ Parent ]
Very interesting cross-tabs.
31% of voters 18-to-29 think interracial marriage should be legal.

http://mypolitikal.com/

[ Parent ]
.
Not a single group in the entire cross-tabs support interracial marriage with a majority. Every group that supports it does so with just a plurality.

Groups with a majority opposed:

18-29, 65+, Men, "Very Liberal" (33-55), and "Somewhat Liberal" (71-17).

 

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
.
Oops.

Very Liberal: Oppose 55-33
Somewhat Liberal: Oppose 71-17

I'm going to go with "extremely small sample sizes" to explain this.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
ugh
From the crosstabs:

1. The men are much more racist than the women. The women supported interracial marriage 45-39, but the men opposed it 52-36.

2. The age breakdown looks like you might expect for people over 30: the 30-45s support it 48-38 and the 46-65s support it 49-39 while the 65+s oppose it 56-30. But their 18-29 sample opposes it 54-31! I suspect that their no-cellphone rule results in a very strange and backwards-ass sample of 18-29 year olds.  

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
18-29
IVR polls always seem to have wacky numbers for 18-29 -- it's not inconceivable that they are weighting that group up by 3, 4 or even more times.  I wish they would just leave that cross out altogether, or at least combine it into 18-39.

[ Parent ]
Could be a selection issue
as in the only 18-29 year olds who are Republicans are the super, super conservative ones. Even more so than the older groups.  

[ Parent ]
The sad thing is
I think a fair number of white MS Dems probably think it should be illegal too.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
.
White Democrats? They still exist? JK.

I wouldn't be at all surprised. When you look at the cross-tabs, the more liberal the Republican (all of which are white) the more opposition to interracial marriage. Extrapolating this to the white Democratic population would probably yield high opposition to interracial marriage.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Yes, Dixiecrats still exist.
They vote Republican on many things, but still identify as Democrats.  Remember that this was the state where Ladybird Johnson got tomatoes thrown at her for lobbying for support for the Civil Rights Act.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Not too surprising
Alabama had a referendum to remove their anti-interracial marriage law a few years back...it succeeded, but not by much.

I would have guessed nearly half of Southern Republicans still are against "mixing the races", and probably a handful of the white Dixiecrats too, if they're still around.

So I shouldn't be surprised, but it's still depressing.  Coming from mixed-race parents myself, I just can't imagine how anyone can still think there is something wrong with people of different skin colors loving and marrying each other.


[ Parent ]
There was also that infamous case in Louisiana
some guy (county clerk? judge?) refused to let an interracial couple get married.

As someone currently in an interracial relationship, I can understand your feelings to an extent. Then again, since I'm gay, I'm kind of used to Republicans frowning upon my relationships, so I take it less personally at this point. Even so, this is pretty amazing. It really is the 1950s down there.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
"He's miscegenated! All you boys is miscegenated!"


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
As I've said before...
Both the Nevada Dems and (now) the Nevada GOP are taking precautions in case The Legislature and Sandoval can't agree on redistricting. It's not about "refusing to undertake redistricting", but rather a stalemate that's becoming increasingly possible as the state budget battle becomes uglier. And as I've said before, a whole lot of pols (especially Joe Heck and the Washoe GOP!) are shaking in their boots over what maps the courts will ultimately produce.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


Would a court drawn map serve Dems well?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Certain incumbents, not so much...
But it would likely mean more competitive seats that Dems can win.

For instance, NV-03 currently spans all the way from Laughlin to Northwest Vegas while slicing & dicing The East Side & Summerlin. Under a court drawn map, I think it's quite probable for the new NV-03 to be shrunk down to just The East Side, Henderson, and Boulder City with perhaps Searchlight & Laughlin kept in if they're needed to meet the population goal. At worst, this keeps NV-03 as a D+2 district that Heck will have a hard time holding (especially since he only BARELY won last year!)... But there's a possibility it could even end up slightly more Democratic, depending on how much of The East Side ends up in NV-03.

Of course, the casualty of this will likely be NV-04. Summerlin and The Northwest have to go somewhere, so they may be put in the new district with Spring Valley and The Southwest under a court drawn map. This will probably put NV-04 at about even PVI.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Diary Errata on OR voting
(Neighboring Oregon, the other mail-only state, requires ballots to be postmarked arrive or turned in on election day.)

Every OR ballot includes a warning, that if mailed, it should be mailed soon enough to arrive by election day.

IIRC, the deadline is 7pm or 8pm, depending on county. Not 100% sure on military ballots, however.


Sigh
I totally knew that - which is why I sought to compare OR to WA. Just a goof on my part. Thanks for catching.

[ Parent ]
AZ-01: Kirkpatrick started her own ActBlue page.
https://secure.actblue.com/ent...
It seems she's definitely going to run again.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Apparently a plurality of MS Republicans think interracial marriage should be illegal
And the anti-interracial marriage folks LOVE Huckabee and Palin

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1


Don't they know that Todd Palin is part Alaskan Indian?
hypocrites!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
The point is he doesn't look it.
My grandmother married her first husband who was creek, sac and fox, and Seminole, my grandfather. She encountered a lot of racism and they were in Chicago in the 1970's.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I was kidding


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Hey I can't tell! :p


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Prosser up in WI Supreme Court race?
http://twitter.com/#!/greggiroux

greggiroux Greg Giroux
IF different-from-AP nos on Winnebago Co site are right (don't know yet) Prosser nets 244 votes http://bit.ly/cXknL0 #wivote


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Saw this earlier
There was also some buzz last night from a conservative grassroots blog about 500 uncounted ballots in Waukesha, but that story never took hold so it's probably false. This comes from a reputable source though so I expect it to be confirmed or dispelled soon.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Whatever
It'll swing about in both directions during the recount. 40 votes is nothing.

[ Parent ]
If it's correct, that is.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Sure
But the likelihood the AP is correct is slim considering the number of times they screwed up before now. I started going through other county websites to check against the Journal but got bored. Canvassers are paid for such things!

[ Parent ]
Remember that..
...as unreliable as the AP is, they have called everyone on at the precinct level to confirm numbers.  In WI, the municipalities, not the counties, are in charge of counting votes, so there is a strong possibility that the county numbers listed are wrong and the AP is right.

[ Parent ]
Same old George Allen
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

NBC 4's reporter-anchor Craig Melvin is a tall African-American. Which apparently led to this exchange with former Sen. George Allen, according to Melvin's Twitter account Tuesday night:

"For the 2nd time in 5 months, fmr. gov. and sen candidate George Allen asks me,"what position did you play?" I did not a play a sport."

And we're off!



"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Color me shocked
Not.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Reminds me
When I was a first year at the University of Virginia, where Mr. Allen also went, I went to a Catholic church dinner with my roommate, who was Catholic. A few of us from the suite went along, including two tall black guys. While we were eating, a lady was chatting with some of us and she asked one of the black guys what sport he played at UVA. We left shortly after in a huff.  

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Reminds me of my father
I know my dad would ask just about any black guy he met about basketball.  He grew up (and me too) in a very white town and its just blissful ignorance.  Meanwhile just about every person on earth loves my dad, who works in the NYS prison system with his blissful ignorance.  Granted this might not be the mentality you want in a senator but its not as bad as over racism.

Also reminds me of my trips to the gum, I'm kinds fat but broad shouldered, I get asked all the tome if I played football.  I don't consider it a bad thing


[ Parent ]
Did your dad say "give a big welcome to macaca"?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
No but suffice it to say
Some things he says are probably worse.  Ironically he's very popular with the inmates for some reason, I think people almost always udnerstand whether something is meant with malice or not.

I think Allen is a HUGE sports nut, and wants to invoke sports in every converstion.  I just think its a "meh" moment, and I tend to think the reporter seems awfully proud that he didn't play sports and offended that Allen didn't remember him.


[ Parent ]
No offense, but
it's a good thing your dad's not a politician. Even if you can get away with stuff like that on a personal level, when you're at the mercy of the media and tons of attack ads, it's bad.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
This is George Allen we are talking about.
It's not without some sort if malice.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
...
Not to be an apologist, but this doesn't strike me as being malicious. The "macaca" incident was awful, but this is mundane and boring.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
It's precisely because of the macaca incident that we can guess this is
ignorant at best and malicious at worse. We already know he's a racist. and even if it was ignorance, that's not acceptable in an elected official in 21st century America.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Not to mention it was Allen's second time asking it in 5 months.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I think former President George W. Bush had a favorite saying
Fool me once, shame on................

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
.
Lol. I agree that it is totally unacceptable in an elected official. I'd find it totally unacceptable from anyone, but that doesn't mean the intent is malicious. Even from someone with a history of malicious remarks.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
DAMMIT!
The racism is bad, but y'know what bothered me to no end about George Allen? His inability to give any sort of position statement or campaign speech without mentioning sports (usually football). I HATED it so much, it got old. This is just another step to returning to that constant sports theme. LET IT DIE!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
As a Virginia conservative,
I'm planning to vote and possibly campaign against him in the primary. Even a Tea Partier like Jamie Radtke could have less potential for embarrassment in the YouTube/cable news era. He's probably a foregone winner, but it's worth a shot.

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

[ Parent ]
NH-Gov
Lynch looks safe should he choose to run again. 58/33 job approval, leads all Republicans by at least 18 points.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


I'm glad to see he's reboundedafter that
close reelection. Especially considering all the nuts that got elected to the New Hampshire State Legislature. They're trying to disenfranchise college students right now, and they're not even making excuses for the reasons why; one of the sponsors flatout said it at a public teabagger meeting, 'Because young voters vote liberal. That's what they do. They lack life experience, and so naively believe the world run the way they want with themselves at the helm of course.' That's the paraphrase, but the actual statement was even more arrogant and elitist. I'd like to see Lynch run for another term. Two more and I believe he'd be on track to be the longest serving governor ever there. He's already the first Governor to win a 4th term since the early 19th Century. I think his well-balanced style is a good fit for the state.

[ Parent ]
What exactly
are they trying to do to disenfranchise them? How can it be legal? I'm not a lawyer, but I could imagine how, despite being done for bullshit reasons, legislatures have the right to institute voter identification laws or something similar.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
.
Remove polling places from campuses, removing the ability for out of state students to register using their campus address, removing the ability to use a student I.D. as your I.D. at a polling place, etc.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
How is any of that legal?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
...
All of it is legal as those policies are set by the state. It used to be the status quo, actually.

Just because it is legal doesn't make it right.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Hmm,
I was under the impression that there were laws trying to prevent this stuff from happening. I mean, perhaps they aren't technically taking away their rights, but they are making it far more difficult, so it's really a distinction without a difference.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
.
The problem is that the laws are set by the state, so they can rescind that policy whenever they damn well want.

You're right that they aren't really taking away their right to vote, but they are making it extremely difficult for them to successfully vote.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
This is so wrong it hurts
The federal government can tell the states whatever they want whenever they want, and that includes voting laws, which is why we have the VRA.  And SCOTUS has ruled that college students can vote in either their hometown or through their attendance at college.  Saying that a college student can't register to vote using a college campus address is equal to disenfranchising college voters and not allowing them that guaranteed choice of getting to vote at college or at home.  Now this could come before the SCOTUS and be ruled okay, which on the surface goes against precedent, but as we've seen with Photo ID, this SCOTUS doesn't care much about the right to vote.

[ Parent ]
It isn't...
Sorry for the late reply, but the SCOTUS has ruled on this before.  The NH League of Women voters wrote a nice article on the legal precedent.  Such a law would be struck down even by conservative courts.

It's a moot issue, anyways.  After the house speaker made some really boneheaded public remarks on the subject, the backlash was so great, they tabled the whole stupid idea.


[ Parent ]
.
I didn't know this. Case?  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
He should
run for Senate in 2016.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Hrm, so it looks like many Indies are going the Romney/Lynch route, then?


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Some, but that was bound to happen.
My impression of Lynch is that he has been more of a managerial, non-partisan type, which could play well to those who themselves aren't particularly partisan. It'd be interesting to see if Romney gets to keep some of that image as a campaign wears on. My guess is, he wouldn't.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
NJ St Sen
good riddance. asswipe.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


I know little about Grigenti
Was he like Hiram Monserrate in terms of being virulently anti-gay?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Mississippi Presidential Numbers
When will PPP be releasing these?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Oops, my bad.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Dems file recall petitions against Hopper.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


woah
would've expected Kapanke to be first.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
He was first.
This is second.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
WI Supreme Court
We ain't done yet.

expect the numbers to change in final canvas.

http://twitter.com/#!/zschultz15

The Dane co board of canvas. Already seen some changes in supreme ct. due to counting errors at municipal level.

vote changes occur when voter chooses write-in, then writes in name of candidate. Those are write-in votes night of election, added here.

The reason the sup.ct. race isn't over should be obvious. In 15 minutes I've seen each candidate gain votes. This happening in 72 counties


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

is there a central source tracking these changes?
AP numbers haven't budged from 204 vote Kloppenburg lead.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Not yet
The AP Milwaukee bureau is waiting for the canvass to be complete in all counties before reporting the updated numbers. So far I believe Winnebago is the only county that has made their new numbers public (unless some other counties reported no changes.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
But it says it was yesterday
And there's no confirmation on their numbers, which might be wrong due to the fact that the count was done on a municipal basis.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
FL-Pres/Sen: Approval-wise, Obama at 44/52, Nelson at 47/26
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x129...

Obama's dipped below 40 percent approval among Indies and Generic R leads him by 41 to 38. Nelson's up 43 to 39 over Generic R.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Though I don't put much trust in Quinnipiac
I'd actually take this poll. Obama doesn't need FL to win anyway, but he's close enough that with more improvement in the economy he could get back ahead, not to mention Generic R will almost certainly outperform the actual candidates. But the real reason I'd take this poll is that Nelson's approval is very close to 50.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Kenosha county Wisconsin
Prosser appears to net 60 votes in recanvass.

http://www.co.kenosha.wi.us/co...


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


Dane County
http://twitter.com/#!/zschultz15

extra votes go both ways, but in Dane Co. the majority will favor Kloppenburg. Prosser gets advantage in GOP areas.


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
So this will go both ways?
Phew, my heart fell with your first comment.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I don't see that specific tweet


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yeah
Is that overly worrying?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Not good since...
.. Kloppenburg carried the county.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Recanvas not done there yet
Right?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It doesn't look like it
It says unofficial and at 99% implying that there is still counting going on.

[ Parent ]
How do you feel?
Do you think there will be positive finds in Dane and Milwaukee counties?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Typically, there should be...
Especially Milwakee.  Errors that tend to favor us are typically found in lower income urban communities.

[ Parent ]
Virginia Congressional map introduced into the House of Delegates
Brief thoughts:
It strengthens VA-10 by a couple points, VA-04 and 05 by 1 point, (surprisingly) leaves VA-02 the same, makes Connolly safe (50% Deeds from 45% Deeds) and packs Democrats into VA-03 even more (69% Deeds from 65% Deeds). Not as egregious a gerrymander as I was expecting, but still a gerrymander.

[ Parent ]
And, as everyone correctly predicted, it moves Petersburg into VA-03.


[ Parent ]
What they did with VA-2 and Newport News is most suprising
They didn't do much at all to protect Rigell. They didn't remove any of the lean-Dem areas in Norfolk and they added parts of Newport News that both have a slight dem-lean and have a rapidly declining white population and rapidly increasing African-American population.  

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

[ Parent ]
Republican Senate Candidates Call for End of Medicare, Medicaid
At least that's how the attack ads should target any of the people mentioned here, in particular Scott Brown. Will the Democrats be smart enough to do it?

http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


I'm all for
"Refreshing, bold and honest, courageous, principled Americans..." driving their party off a cliff.

[ Parent ]
This is going to go up and down.
http://elections.wispolitics.c...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Anyone here
can help make me feel not nervous?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
No
Not really. I would just advise not to get too excited with each piece of news in whatever direction. As you say it will likely go up and down.

[ Parent ]
Go here:
http://bit.ly/gyPDVX

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I have seen
5 different vote counts in the last 10 minutes.  When an election is this close neither side will ever accept that they lost.  

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
It fluctuated so much first time around
Anybody who thought it would stick at 204 votes was crazy.

[ Parent ]
I'm well aware
that technology isn't perfect, but how is it that we still have so much trouble counting votes properly?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
That article provides no info
They didn't call the clerk's office or anything. They aren't revealing anything more than reported on twitter. No one has confirmed any discrepancy.  

[ Parent ]
I understand the VA map has been released
but I don't have a link.

Ditto on yet another new map in AR which looks a lot like standpat.

The MO map will be sorted out.  The key is the city of St Louis.  Democrats seem content with Clay getting all of that locale.


I just posted it like three posts up.
[ Parent ]
New Texas Maps
Speaking of Texas redistricting, 5 maps have been submitted and can be seen at the District Viewer.  2 are from independents (Pate and Owens), which draw lots of incumbents together, 2 are from MALDEF, which each drew 9 Latino districts, and 1 is from GRITs, which is apparently a Tea Party group.  I really like the Owens map myself, but none of these have much hope in becoming a reality.

.
The Pate map throws Neugebauer and Conoway in the same district.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Neugebauer and Thornberry are in 13
according to my notes on the Pate map.  The Owens map puts Neugebauer and Conaway together in 19.

[ Parent ]
.
Hmm. I was going off of my rough memory. I really hate Pate's map. I really believe that there should be three districts in the Panhandle. One for Amarillo, one for Lubbock, and one for Odessa-Midland-San Angelo.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Your Map
I just looked at your map, it looks good but optimistic. I have drawn two prediction maps here and here.  The second one is just nasty.

[ Parent ]
Well?
Michael McCaul also seems screwed.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
In Pate?
McCaul is in 21 in the Pate plan, and he would be super safe there.  However, he would be in trouble in the Owens plan.

Hensarling is screwed in both Pate and Owens though, and Olson would have to set up shop in Galveston in both too.


[ Parent ]
.
McCaul could run in either the 21st (the population of his current district) or 31st (his home) under Pate.

The problem is that he wouldn't make it out of the primary in either. Carter would dominate in the 31st because of Round Rock, while the 21st would be dominated by rural interests. Which is something McCaul knows nothing about and doesn't care about.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
.
It adds a new Hispanic district in San Antonio.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Grit
The grit plan is awful. There is no way that that map would hold up in court based on the DeLay mid-decade case.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Not Even Close
It has no new Hispanic districts, and it reduces the Hispanic influence in 23 and 27.  That's retrogression.

[ Parent ]
IN-SoS: Judge rules Dem challenge valid, remands the issue back to the state Recount Commission

I haven't seen it on any of the news sites yet, but IndyStar courts reporter Carrie Ritchie just reported the ruling on her Twitter feed. The Recount Commission is where this whole thing originally got rolling, back in December of last year, when it ruled that White was legally valid to assume the office of SoS.

There's some big differences between then and now, though: back then, White hasn't been indicted for anything, hadn't attacked previous SoS Todd Rokita, hadn't been publicly tossed overboard by Mitch Daniels, and most annoyingly, hadn't been inagurated as SoS yet. I mention that last one... because the sitting Secretary of State is the chair of the Recount Commission!

The Recount Commission itself is a three member panel consisting of the current SoS, and one designated representative selected by each of the major state party chairs. Of course, White won't actually be able to serve on the Commission at his own hearing; under state law, the Republican state party chairman (as head of the party that the sitting SoS belongs to) will select a temporary commissioner to replace White until the Commission comes to a decision regarding this challenge. So what we're going to see is two Republicans and one Dem deciding this. I'm not optimistic. 

There's not anything I've seen yet that indicates what kind of a timetable the Commission is working on, but I would assume they're going to try to resolve this whole thing quickly. 



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

On a related note
The Democrats would like to know whether this means that the results of Todd Rokita's "investigation" of the White affair might actually be made public this time.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Are they the final arbitrators?
Can their ruling be appealed? Also if Democrats are successful would Vop become SoS?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
The end goal of the Dems is to have Osili replace White
Their argument is that White wasn't a valid candidate to begin with, and that Osili, as the next highest vote winner, should be the the legitimate SoS. This is also where all this talk about major party status, ballot position, nominating conventions, and so on comes in.

I don't know if it's possible for them to appeal whatever decision the Commission comes to, although I suppose it is possible they could being another suit arguing that the courts should decide this matter instead of the Commission. If anyone has a better handle than I do on how this sort of thing works, I'd readily appreciate their thoughts.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Dodgy looking Virginia poll
Obama approval 34-57, Allen leads Kaine 45-32.

http://roanoke.edu/Documents/p...

Reason being sample is just 10% African-American and party breakdown is 26d-34r-34i.

In 2009 it was 16% and 33d-37r-30i according to the exit poll.


University polls are garbage in most states.
Quinnipiac is one of the few legitimate ones.

[ Parent ]
Um, yeah
That can pretty much be ignored. What a joke.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Worse than that, look at race and geography......
They have NoVA at just 21% of the sample.

We're close to 30% up here.

And 84% of the sample are white, with just 10% black!

Not since pre-VRA was the electorate that white!

And all this doesn't even consider that the total sample of registered voters is pretty small.

This is so embarrassingly bad that I'm surprised Roanoke released it at all.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]

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