Hirono then Hanabusa.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 18:20:22 PM UTC

Agree

She looks very strong. Any Dem will win but I would still hope Hanabusa would defer. Inouye won't be around forever.

---

by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 18:24:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Inouye is like Hanabusa's mentor.

He probably wants her to replace him in 2016. I would bet Hirono enters the race and Hanabusa doesn't.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 18:28:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

yup, agreed on all

---

by: Andrew @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 18:30:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hirono will be 65 in January of 2013

So, enough time for four terms, then.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 19:11:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Haha!

Absolutely! That's probably a likely outcome.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 19:13:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is Duke Aiona even considering this?

From what I've heard, Djou's giving Lingle first dibs here and, should she pass, he'll likely enter. So...maybe Aiona's third in line? Ironically, he performs the best of the three GOP-ers, even though he's actually the most conservative. My hunch is Lingle won't run and Djou will jump in. I do believe, however, that all four of those Democrats will probably run. Case's ceiling is probably below 40%, but he could still totally eek-out a plurality victory.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 18:48:10 PM UTC

All four?

What do you base that on? Aiona has the best favorables so makes sense he would perform best. Odd he hasn't been mentioned from what I can remember. All the talk is Lingle or Djou.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 18:52:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would assume Hirono and Hanabusa talk.

On the other hand I could see Case and Mufi entering the race and splitting the conservative vote and allowing a clearer path for either congresswoman. Although I don't think they would need it.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 19:07:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope it's a rematch between

Hirono and Lingle.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 19:33:31 PM UTC

No surprise, and I'm going to claim bragging rights...

...on having been the first person to post on SSP, in a comment thread back when it was first announced that Akaka would retire, the point that Lingle's ratings were underwater.  I remember everyone here was just assuming Lingle would be strong, making me wonder what really was her standing, so I looked it up.

This just confirms what I figured back then, that Lingle would be in the low 40s against all serious Democratic comers.

This seat is safe D, period.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 20:00:42 PM UTC

To be fair

Not everyone.

---

by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 20:09:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fair enough, not everyone. (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 20:24:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

hahaha

I knew my former governor would struggle in a federal race, but wow this is just embarrassing for her.  Can't believe Aiona actually performs a few points better than her, considering the crushing defeat he took last year.  This seat is beyond safe for us, I doubt Lingle even runs (and Aiona has said the only office he will ever run for is governor again).  Djou could be the sacrificial lamb but he sounded like he was done with politics after getting bounced last November, and I don't think he wants the footnote of his career to be getting crushed in a presidential year.  He couldn't even hold his Honolulu district, he'd get blown out on the neighbor islands.  If Hanabusa runs Djou might decide to make another try at the congressional seat instead.

So this all really boils down to the Democratic primary.  Three things appear clear to me: 1) Hannemann did more than just weaken himself in his primary run for governor, he became radioactive.  2) Hirono and Hanabusa are very in tune with the establishment, and I can't see them running against each other.  3) Ed Case doesn't have a good shot, but he does have a chance if Republicans pile in to the open Dem primary.  Our best bet at keeping him out is having one strong frontrunner...if like 10 Democrats end up running Case might sneak through.

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by: skaje @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 20:09:26 PM UTC

If I was Cornyn

I'd try to get Case to switch parties.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 20:10:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Case wouldn't do that

not because of some fundamental loyalty to the Democratic Party, but simply because he is already pretty popular with Republicans...but switching parties would destroy his reputation with Democrats (even more than it already is).

That and the Hawaii GOP primaries are a small, really insular affair.  I doubt Case could win one of them.

---

by: skaje @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 20:23:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I glad see Lingle weak, it is a good new.

Very good new. Between the republicans very little chance to doubt. D Aiona seems now the frontrunner. By very low margin but consistently in every result. That mean surely C Djou can begin to think about a gubernatorial bid in 2014 or 2018.

If we compare the results of the last races (Abercrombie vs Aiona 57.8% - 40.8% and Hanabusa vs Djou 49.6% - 40.6%) with the results of this poll, we can think about Abercrombie doing better than Case if he would be included in this poll.

I doubt seriously Ed Case is the true democratic frontrunner for this race. I think we can have more democrats in Hawaii improving the numbers of Ed Case. The question is find them opening a little the minds. I would like to see numbers for E Shinseki, J Waihee and B Schatz. Unfortunately not this time, but I lose not the hope for other time.

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by: abgin @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 20:20:50 PM UTC

Inouye already said no to Shinseki

http://www.civilbeat.com/posts...

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by: tietack @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 20:33:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Curious link

It is so rare all.

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by: abgin @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 21:17:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I really understand not

I really understand not the benefits for these people of have Shinseki as senator. That mean E Shinseki would help them? I doubt it very seriously. No sense for me.

And I understand not why D Inouye's office talk in the name of E Shinseki.

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by: abgin @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 22:50:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What is so difficult to understand?

If Shinseki wanted to run, he would have refuted it by now -- or at least commented on it a bit. Since he chose to speak through Inouye, that tells me that he doesn't even want to be bothererd with such talk,

aka a straight denial from Shinseki would have led to more speculation.  

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by: tietack @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 00:19:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, nothing to see here

I'm only worried about this race for the Democratic primary, and it's really hard to see both Reps. Hanabusa and Hirono running. I would imagine Hanabusa will defer to Hirono.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 21:35:31 PM UTC

I don't see Hanabusa running if Hirono does.

She was just elected to her current job, and since Daniel Inouye is pretty clearly not going to be around much longer, she can afford to wait.

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by: SC @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 22:28:16 PM UTC

Agreed there

Besides, the last time they faced off (for HI-02), Hirono won.  Hanabusa wouldn't risk losing in a primary again now that she's finally made it into Congress.  She's not Ed Case, lol.  Hanabusa can wait, she knows she's being groomed for Inouye's seat eventually.

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by: skaje @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 23:26:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Abercrombie for senate?

Why close our mind to Hirono and Hanabusa when both appear not as strong as we would wish? I imagine fast Rasmussen giving a tie for Aiona in some poll. And then?

Personally I want some person that gives guarantee and make the race totally, totally safe. Whitout doubts. I want some person that frighten away all the republicans, and make the race need not money (even in the primary and in the general), keeping the democratic money for other races, like the presidential.

It is obvious N Abercrombie would be one of these persons because he crush Aiona in 2010 by 17 points. I have not doubt he would do better than Case if he would be included in this poll. There are more persons like him? We know not. But maybe. It is question of checking in new polls.

Without more information now I would support a bid of N Abercrombie over a bid of M Hirono or C Hanabusa. Schatz would become governor and a new Lieutenant Governor would be appointed, if I'm not wrong. No trouble in the democratic primary for the senate. No chance for Case. No US House open seats. This would be the kind of solution that I want for this open seat.

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by: abgin @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 23:28:04 PM UTC

Not happening

Part of his reasoning for the gubernatorial campaign was at his age he wanted to get out of Washington and go home. Hirono is plenty strong taking both primary and general into consideration.

---

by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 23:32:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Cause of this I would check if there are more democrats in this level

And I think E Shinseki, J Waihee or B Schatz can be the options. If someone can improve the numbers of Case, would be OK for me.

I like M Hirono. Not trouble here. But I'm so eskeptikal about the chance of open again a US House seat. We can see perfectly L Lingle, D Aiona, C Djou, E Case or M Hannemann running for the US House. I think replace M Hirono or C Hanabusa would be a decent trouble. I would take not the risk of asume that a no-name democrat can emerge over all in the primary (against the democrats) and in the general (against the republicans). Sure it would be a expensive race.

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by: abgin @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 00:00:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If an incumbent Republican can't hold on in 2010

They are not winning an open house seat in 2012 with Obama leading the ticket.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 00:08:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup, I'd be more concerned about a House seat in HI

vacated by Hirono or Hanubasa, if it were in '18.

An open House seat ain't flipping, at least for the next several cycles, short of another special election where multiple Ds run against a single R.

---

by: tietack @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 00:21:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

To beat the republicans in the general seems a little easier than to beat the democrats in the primary

But always expensive.

---

by: abgin @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 02:17:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here is where the word recruitment takes sense

And here is where a fine work of recruitment is necessary for save the money for other races.  

---

by: abgin @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 00:26:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In all fairness, I don't think anyone performs better in the general than Case

I suspect he's capable of garnering a fourth of Republicans and 60% of Independents. Granted, liberals won't be enthused among him, but the middle surely will be. With Abercrombie, you'll have a pumped-up base, but he has scant pull among conservatives. I think Case would garner upwards of 70%, Abercromie 60%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 00:03:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Do you think Case would poll better than Abercrombie and Inouye?

I think there are more democrats that can break this bareer. And not only cause of be moderate. It is a popularity factor too.

As example we have:

Obama 71.45% McCain 26.44% (2008)
Inouye 71.92% Cavasso 20.74% (2010)
Abercrombie 57.79% Aiona 40.82% (2010)
Akaka 61.34% Thielen 36.79% (2006)

As example, McCain was not a no-name republican, and Obama improves the results of Case. Obama is more liberal than Case but have better result than him.

At same time Cavasso was a no-name republican. But the advantage of Inouye tell he has also a decent support between more conservative people. If not it would not be possible to win the 72% of the vote.

For me it is so hard to imagine Case defeating Aiona by the same margin than Abercrombie in 2010. Keeping the proportion of the result in 2010, I would tell the result of Abercrombie in this poll would be someting like Abercrombie 52 Aiona 37 (and that taking not into account the little improvement for Hanabusa in the poll since her 2010 result against Djou).

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by: abgin @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 00:59:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would wager Case performs something like...

D - 43%
I - 36%
R - 21%

Case - 94/64/24 = 68%
Aiona - 6/36/76 = 32%

So, he isn't quite in Inouye territory, but he's still pretty darn close. For kicks, I'll attach an Obama calculation, too...

Obama - 96/66/16 = 68%
Generic R - 4/34/84 = 32%

Heh.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 02:16:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It would be a really hard coup for Aiona

If Case defeat him by more than 2 to 1.

Do you think Case can win 94% of Dems?

---

by: abgin @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 02:20:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I suspect so

Granted, Case isn't exactly a matinee idol to liberals, but are they really gonna bolt for uber-conservative Aiona instead? I suspect just about all moderate and conservative Democrats will vote for Case.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 04:03:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I suspect so

Granted, Case isn't exactly a matinee idol to liberals, but are they really gonna bolt for uber-conservative Aiona instead? I suspect just about all moderate and conservative Democrats will vote for Case.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 04:03:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It would be a really hard coup for Aiona

If Case defeat him by more than 2 to 1.

Do you think Case can win 94% of Dems?

---

by: abgin @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 02:20:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Do you think Case would poll better than Abercrombie and Inouye?

I think there are more democrats that can break this bareer. And not only cause of be moderate. It is a popularity factor too.

As example we have:

Obama 71.45% McCain 26.44% (2008)
Inouye 71.92% Cavasso 20.74% (2010)
Abercrombie 57.79% Aiona 40.82% (2010)
Akaka 61.34% Thielen 36.79% (2006)

As example, McCain was not a no-name republican, and Obama improves the results of Case. Obama is more liberal than Case but have better result than him.

At same time Cavasso was a no-name republican. But the advantage of Inouye tell he has also a decent support between more conservative people. If not it would not be possible to win the 72% of the vote.

For me it is so hard to imagine Case defeating Aiona by the same margin than Abercrombie in 2010. Keeping the proportion of the result in 2010, I would tell the result of Abercrombie in this poll would be someting like Abercrombie 52 Aiona 37 (and that taking not into account the little improvement for Hanabusa in the poll since her 2010 result against Djou).

---

by: abgin @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 00:59:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Imagine if Hawaii had an all female

congressional delegation.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 05:47:53 AM UTC

Maine is 3/4ths of the way there.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 06:40:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Someone like

State Senate Vice President Donna Mercado Kim would make a good replacement for Hirono. She would be the first Korean American in Congress I believe. Right now she's exploring a possible Senate bid, but that could easily change.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 10:31:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good call

Does Kim live in HI-01 or HI-02, though?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 11:00:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Honolulu I believe, but I don't think

it would matter to much. Wasn't Ed Case living in Honolulu when he represented the 2nd district?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 11:05:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Unfortunately, the first

was Jay Kim in CA (R). I say unfortunately, as no politically connected Korean-American ever wants to talk about him, given this

According to the U.S. attorney's office in Los Angeles, Kim has admitted to committing the largest amount of campaign violations ever by a member of Congress. More than one-third of the contributions to his 1992 primary campaign, where he eked out a victory by 889 votes, were illegal.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...  

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by: tietack @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 14:21:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's giving all the Kim's

in the world a bad name.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 14:51:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]