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Illinois Democratic Gerrymander 12-6 - Updated

by: Madigoon

Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 12:40 AM EDT


Illinois is losing one congressional district this year - going from 19 to 18.  I have created a map that takes the current map with a delegation of 11 Republicans and 8 Democrats to one with 12 Democratic seats and 6 Republican ones.  I consider this an ambitious gerrymander favoring the Democrats, but one that is realistic and keeps a few things in mind:

1.) Michael Madigan is in charge and he will look out for his interests first.  He also will never do a dummymander.

2.) The Democratic incumbents also have input and their interests will be considered.  None of them will want their district lines to change much and all want their Democratic primary bases to be kept intact.  They also don't want to be thrown from safe seats to possibly competitive ones.

3.) African Americans will insist on maintaining their three black majority districts, no matter how much population they have lost in the city.  The Hispanics will want at least one - two may be forced by the courts - but Madigan and his allies will likely push for one Hispanic district to maintain Lipinski's seat.  Also, we have seen in the City of Chicago that Hispanic majority seats often go to white incumbents who control the Democratic machine.  Alderman Ed Burke's 14th ward is 88% Hispanic, Madigan's 13th ward is 72% Hispanic and just elected somebody named "Marty Quinn" to be Alderman.  

4.) Madigan will go after Freshman GOP before those with more seniority.  Not only are they easier targets, but having seniority on both sides of the aisle is good for Illinois.

Below is each new district with data and analysis.  I have calculated the results from the 2010 Senate race (Kirk v. Giannoulias) and from the 2004 Presidential race (Bush v. Kerry - I know, old).  I used the 2010 Senate race rather than the Governor's race because it is on the Federal level, and to use data against moderate Republican.  I did not calculate data from the 2008 election, because Obama's landslide was far too big  and unevenly distributed in Illinois (I feel Chicagoland was much more skewed than Downstate).  The 2010 numbers are exact (to the precinct) except for Tazewell, Marion, Moultrie, and Menard Counties, which I allocated votes by ratio of population in each district.  The same goes for 2004 numbers, except I had to extrapolate the precinct data for Lake and Will counties from 2010 data.

For now, here are three tables with election data, racial population data, and VAP data.  I will add more analysis in the next few days.


District  Kirk   Alexi    Bush   Kerry    PVI
1        24.80% 75.20% 23.00% 77.00% D+30
2        25.26% 74.74% 26.39% 73.61% D+28
3        48.14% 51.86% 44.25% 55.75% D+8
4        26.57% 73.43% 26.90% 73.10% D+28
5        47.72% 52.28% 41.53% 58.47% D+10
6        63.33% 36.67% 57.66% 42.34% R+6
7        18.61% 81.39% 15.81% 84.19% D+37
8        53.71% 46.29% 46.66% 53.34% D+4
9        47.77% 52.23% 39.12% 60.88% D+11
10       47.75% 52.25% 39.70% 60.30% D+11
11       68.75% 31.25% 60.55% 39.45% R+10
12       53.24% 46.76% 47.02% 52.98% D+4
13       49.12% 50.88% 45.12% 54.88% D+7
14       64.94% 35.06% 59.55% 40.45% R+8
15       68.33% 31.67% 59.68% 40.32% R+10
16       67.03% 32.97% 57.86% 42.14% R+8
17       56.61% 43.39% 46.84% 53.16% D+3
18       68.31% 31.69% 60.39% 39.61% R+10

ALL
District  White  Black  Hispanic  Asian
1        35.5%   52.7%   8.2%   2.0%
2        31.4%   52.8%   13.4%   0.8%
3        59.5%   6.1%   27.7%   5.4%
4        18.7%   4.1%   73.3%   2.9%
5        65.1%   2.2%   24.4%   6.7%
6        75.4%   3.7%   8.8%   10.3%
7        27.6%   54.5%   12.2%   4.1%
8        48.6%   8.7%   31.5%   9.1%
9        67.4%   7.8%   10.6%   12.0%
10       72.2%   3.4%   10.9%   11.5%
11       92.7%   3.2%   2.0%   0.8%
12       77.5%   16.6%   2.8%   1.1%
13       53.0%   12.7%   27.3%   5.0%
14       82.5%   1.6%   11.4%   3.2%
15       85.4%   6.8%   3.1%   2.9%
16       88.6%   2.6%   6.3%   1.1%
17       77.9%   12.4%   5.8%   1.5%
18       86.7%   5.4%   4.8%   1.6%

VAP
District  White  Black  Hispanic  Asian
1        38.0%   51.7%   6.9%   2.2%
2        34.5%   51.8%   11.7%   0.8%
3        64.0%   5.9%   23.5%   5.7%
4        23.2%   4.1%   68.3%   3.4%
5        69.1%   2.0%   20.9%   6.8%
6        77.7%   3.5%   7.5%   10.2%
7        31.1%   51.8%   11.0%   4.8%
8        54.1%   8.1%   26.9%   9.4%
9        69.2%   7.8%   9.3%   12.1%
10       74.7%   3.3%   9.3%   11.2%
11       93.5%   3.2%   1.7%   0.8%
12       80.0%   15.3%   2.4%   1.1%
13       58.3%   12.1%   23.4%   5.0%
14       85.3%   1.4%   9.4%   3.1%
15       86.7%   6.2%   2.7%   3.2%
16       90.8%   2.4%   4.9%   1.1%
17       81.7%   10.8%   4.6%   1.5%
18       88.7%   5.1%   3.8%   1.5%

Illinois Statewide

Illinois Statewide 2

Northeast Illinois

Northeast Illinois

Northern Chicagoland

Southern Chicagoland

Central Chicago

Central Illinois

Springfield and Decatur

Southern Illinois
Madigoon :: Illinois Democratic Gerrymander 12-6 - Updated
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Illinois Democratic Gerrymander 12-6 - Updated | 33 comments
What would be the yellow districts PVI?
Would Adam Kinzinger survive in this district? I would assume Aaron Shock and Kinzinger are top targets.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
Could you please post the data?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Interesting
I suspect this map isn't as ambitious as it could be. I've been working on an Illinois map though I've had to put it aside for a few days due to an overwhelming amount of work. Anyway, I'm fairly certain that my final map will be 14-4. In short, I think that you are unnecessarily ceding a couple GOP seats in the Chicago collar counties.

That said, since my map is still a work in progress (the obvious holdup being working up partisan numbers precinct by precinct) I'm not completely sure yet that it works. However, I seriously doubt that 13-5 is not in easy reach if 14-4 seems at least within the realm of possibility.

I'd love to see that!


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I am working on the precincts...
comparing Obama 2008 with Quinn 2010.  If you average the two, you get about 55-56% Democratic performance state-wide, which is about right.  Well, given that Chicago lost population and all the Chicago seats have to expand out, a 14-4 map is not in my mind possible.  I am designing my map as a 13-5, with two suburban/exurban seats ceded, a district for Manzullo with Rockford cut out, and districts downstate for Johnson and Shimkus.  Map will be posted in a few days, once I finish doing the laborious tallying of precinct data for the rest of the Chicago area.
[ Parent ]
Indeed
14-4 will take the best mapmaker in the West (roguemapper is working on it) and even then it might be wobbly.  13-5 should be strongly lobbied for by IL Democrats.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Not giving up!
At least not yet. The lynchpin of my initial map is a narrow district that drops down all the way from Rockford to take Bloomington, Champaign-Urbana, and Danville. There are then basically two downstate GOP seats and two upstate/exurban seats - at least in principle.

There are still some problems with my map though - having to do with majority-minority districts, incumbent homes, and determining the proper partisan baseline - so I'm not near content with it. First and foremost, I used Kerry-Bush figures and for various reasons (mainly some glaring demographic shifts in the past 7 years) I've now decided those are too out of date.

So, I want to test a new partisan baseline (i.e., taking the Obama numbers and correcting them to match the Kerry average) and then rework some parts of my map on that basis. And, I also want to try a couple alternatives in place of my Rockville to Danville district.

Hopefully I'll have the results ready to post this weekend!

[ Parent ]
Re: kerry 04 numbers
Although Kerry 04 numbers give you 55% Democratic baseline statewide, I agree with you that they are out of date with the shifts going on in the state in the weeds.  Might I suggest you do as I am doing, which is average 2010 Quinn numbers with Obama 2008 numbers?  Or you could pike Kirk but I think Quinn-Brady is more realistic for the chief reason that Kirk is part of a vanishing breed of Republicans, what we in Illinois call the "Jim Thompson-Chuck Percy Republican" who used to run the state GOP.  They still exist in Chicago suburbia, but among the congressmembers currently existing in the burbs, I would only call Judy Biggert one of them.  So, Brady is where the party is going nationally and state-wise.  The fact that he repelled just enough Kirk voters in the burbs last fall to cross over and vote for Governor Quinn is the only reason we are now entertaining 12-6 or 13-5 or, indeed 14-4 maps!

But with that said, Brady still carried all the suburban counties.  Quinn got enough votes out of them to barely be elected governor, while being trounced downstate (even in areas like Peoria, Rock Island, Rockford, etc. that I assume should have voted Democratic).  

Two more points.  First, downstate cities didn't turn out last fall; Chicago did.  What that tells me in a 2010-style election is that Chicago is the only realistic sure-fire Democratic bastion that mapmakers should be counting on.  While Obama should give downballot races a boost in 2012, we still have to survive 2014 (assuming President Obama gets re-elected, an if at the moment).  Then 2016 he will not be on the ballot, and I think we will see something more in line with Kerry numbers.  Maps have to be designed to last an entire decade worth of cycles.  

So anybody saying reflexively that Illinois is so blue that anything less than 14-4 is a Republican gerrymander are frankly not convincing to me unless you prove to me with precinct data (and data not solely based on Obama 2008 numbers which are flawed for a realistic take on what a generic congressional Democratic vote should look like, particularly in the burbs).  I think 12-6 is the most realistic frankly, but I am going to draw a 12-5-1 anyway (the swing seat being a downstate cities district that is reliant on U of I students voting... a bit if but something that should be attempted as Democrats have nothing to lose in trying).  But even if state Democrats in Springfield in the end of the day opt for 12-6, that still means +4 Democrats, -5 Republicans from currently.  Nothing to scoff at!

My second point has to do with the VRA.  If it is true that the DOJ is going to insist on a 2nd VRA seat in Virginia (as has been rumored), that will have ripple-effects nationwide.  Even in states that don't have to do preclearance, there are still counties that have to be precleared (and I would imagine that Cook is one of the ones for Illinois).  It is numerically possible to draw a 65% new 2nd Chicago seat (southside plus a thin tendril out to Aurora and West Chicago) as well as give Gutierrez a 57-58% Hispanic seat on the north side (correct me if I am wrong here but Puerto Ricans rather than Mexicans, therefore far more are citizens) and some of the DuPage and Cook suburbs that are becoming more Hispanic.  Continuing to draw the current 4th is probably now illegal VRA-wise.  Plus, there is a partisan benefit for the Democrats in doing this as you can easily do this while eliminating a DuPage Republican.  The only "Democrat" really adversely affected by any of this, potentially, is Lipinski as under my map he is getting a lot of new Democratic territory in the Joliet area (and these suburban Democrats might not take well to his rabid anti-abortion rights position).

My map will be up in a few days, as soon as I finish punchining in the north Cook County/Lake districts as well as downstate.

[ Parent ]
A voice of reason-I hope my saying that does
get you run out of town on a rail. Let me  add a few points to the discussion.

1. There is the expectation that 2012 could be another Big D year in Illinois.  Unless we change the constitution or if Michelle runs in 2016  looks like 2012 is the end of a  Obama running on the top of the ticket. For a map to pass the test of time can you draw it just for 2012?  What would be the use of 14-4 in 2012 if it comes up like 10-8 in 2014?  

2. That map of 2010 be it Brady-Quinn or Kirk-G  showed a lot of red.  I would think that the 2010 map would make the D's be a little cautious.  I think the framework of a 12-6 map with the thought of having it be good for ten years would be a superior approach for the Ds.

3. There is something called ticket splitting.  To an extent we saw it in 2010 in Il as voters who went for GOP candidates had also voted for Obama in 2008.  That could happen in a real sense in 2012.  The President could sweep IL and yet legislative and congressional races could go against the democratic party.  Legislative D's are vulnerable due the lameduck tax hikes.  There are numerous GOP incumbents like Dold, Mazallo, Shimkus, Johnson, Shrock and yes even Shilling who have shown skill in winning independent some D voters. If you see an overly aggressive map you could endanger democrat incumbents while placing a handful of well funded skilled campaigners in tossup seats.  You can try for four and end up with 1 while trying for two or three certain ones would have been the better approach.

I have said it before that I believe caution will prevail in Springfield.  The D's will lockdown two rural seats and try for a third in a tossup type seat.  Then they will concede three suburban GOP seats by ditching Walsh, Dold and Adam K. Whether that works out to be 12-6 or 11-7 depends on election results.  

[ Parent ]
12-6
12-6 is very doable, with Quinn prevailing (narrowly) in the suburban-hybrids that I have been able to create for Lipinski (so I could draw what I see is the necessary VRA-muster 2nd Hispanic seat) and seats for Melissa Bean if she wants it and another Democrat in place of Dold who is being collapsed into Schakowsky's district under my budding plan.  That means 9 Democratic seats going in and out of Chicago in a radial style, a 10th seat in the Chicago area for Bean linking Elgin and Schaumburg (leaning Democratic more and more by the day) with Waukegan) which is interestingly enough only barely majority white (which I think bodes well for the decade).  That means, an 11th seat taking up the lower Du Page areas I couldn't gerrymander away out of existence, plus left over Will Republican areas and part of Kendall (exurban Republican but with the wrong Republican on the ticket and the right Democratic nominee, competitive).  A 12th seat would then take Republican areas of Kane and push them together with Republican areas of McHenry and western Lake for Walsh (again a competitive Democratic nominee might make this a race).  Then I would draw a 13th seat for Manzullo, 14th would be a shored up version of Rock Island, Peoria, Rockford to elect a Democrat, 15th would be a safe GOP seat that would throw in Johnson, Kinzinger, and Schock, 16th would be a vacant downstate cities seat that Johnson might be able to win if he ran there but otherwise would be a toss-up, lean-Democratic seat under the right cirucmstances.  17th would be Costello and 18th for Shimkus.
[ Parent ]
A quick note
The 'lots of red' maps in 2004 and 2010 included a lot of red counties with major blue pockets. The trick is cutting out the red into the GOP districts while pulling the blue together. That's why, for instanct, I used the Rockford-Danville move on my map. Every other map I've seen is wasting a lot of Democrats in Champaign, Danville, and often Blooomington by putting them in otherwise heavily GOP districts. My goal is to figure out the best way to avoid that (whether it's finding a way to get them into IL-17 or otherwise stringing down an upstate district).

And, by taking those Democrats out of IL-11/IL-15 (or whatever) then that means the GOP districts can then move deeper into the collar counties to suck up Republican votes into the GOP sinkholes.

[ Parent ]
Not all of them...
There is something called ticket splitting.  To an extent we saw it in 2010 in Il as voters who went for GOP candidates had also voted for Obama in 2008.  That could happen in a real sense in 2012.

Maybe for more moderate Republicans like Judy Biggert, but probably not so much for firebreathing teabaggers like Bob Dold and Joe Walsh, who really just benefitted from depressed Democratic turnout. Unless Republicans figure out a way to run Mark Kirk clones in all those suburban Chicago districts, I suspect 2010 was their ultimate high water mark... That will probably recede in 2012.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
On the flip side
suburbanites who ticket split might not be thrilled about a 100% liberal like the Chicago 7(the 7 Chicago based congressman who have 100% liberal records).

We saw Bean & Seals go down in 2010 as even their somewhat more moderate records (maybe 90% liberal) did not appease conservative voters.

I personally think its a good thing for folks like Kirk, Dold and Biggert to run in these suburban areas.  

[ Parent ]
Quinn numbers
I like the idea of averaging Quinn '10 numbers with Obama '08 numbers, I'm just wondering if I can get statewide precinct breakdowns for Quinn. I'm not saying that I can't, since I haven't checked, but I know that a number of the smaller counties didn't have election results available by precinct (for my Kerry-Bush based map I generally compensated by keeping counties whole wherever I couldn't get precinct figures so then I just needed the countywide figure, which is readily available).

So, in short, I'm asking you if you could tell me what source/s you use for the Quinn numbers (I have spreadsheets with the Obama numbers, so no problem there).

FWIW, I noticed a rather interesting racial stratification in the precinct numbers from 2004. The narrow Kerry districts (50-55% Kerry) averaged 67% white. The narrow Bush districts (50-55% Bush) averaged 77% white. The heavy Bush districts (56%+Bush) averaged 87% white. Anything below 57% white was heavy Kerry (56%+ Kerry).

That almost suggests to me that you could do a reliable Illinois map using nothing but racial data. That was also how I realized that demographic shifts made Kerry-Bush data unviable. In short, when I saw precinct numbers that were seriously out of whack with those averages, and then I looked at the 2000-2010 demographic shifts, I could see that they were consistently precincts that underwent major changes in racial composition.

On the VRA seats: My map keeps the majority-minority seats more or less at the current number, though the percentage of black voters will inevitably drop in those districts. I eliminated the 'earmuff' arrangement of the IL-04 district by having it wrap around on the east side rather than the west side. That said, I'm ambivalent about having kept one 70%+ Latino seat versus two Latino seats as you suggest. More importantly, I am confident that if I made it two, then I would have more Democrats to work with elsewhere (or, to put it differently, I could absorb more DuPage County Republicans into Democratic districts).

Anyway, we'll see where I end up. As I said, I may well end up abandoning the 14-4 scheme for a 13-5 scheme, but the worse that I can imagine doing is 12-4-2 (with two 50-48% Dem swing districts). I certainly do not think there is any chance that I will have to create 6 solid GOP seats. Everything I'm seeing from the maps I've been playing with tells me 5 GOP districts is worst-case. Now, I do slice & dice the collar counties very carefully on my map, but it's clear the Illinois legislature has no compunction about created highly irregular gerrymanders.

I'm very interested in seeing your maps. I've already gotten some ideas I want to try out from the map in this thread too.

Oh, and please let me know what you can about sources for the Quinn numbers!

[ Parent ]
county board of election sites
State board, as far as I have been able to figure out, has only county aggregates.  I am still stuck up in Chicago land doing the districts up there (Lake, DuPage, Kane, Will, Kendall, DeKalb are very user-friendly), McHenry has nada (hence I am deciding to make Joe Walsh a GOP vote sink whereas the real mapmakers might not).  Chicago is very useful, down to the ward and precinct but there are whole sorts of missing precincts in Cook Suburban between 2008 and 2010.  Perhaps I am doing something that others wouldn't do, but I am modeling out for those missing precincts % of overall Obama vote in taht township X total Quinn township totals to get at a "notional" total.  Not perfect but probably not going to really change the topline figure all that much in either direction to ascertain whether a district is sufficiently red or blue to what I want it to be.
\
[ Parent ]
as far as swing seats are concerned...
I haven't crunched the numbers for what I am calling Joe Walsh's 2nd vote sink in suburbia yet.  I am renumbering the districts more logically as I have eliminated several districts, added new ones in their place, etc.

But unless I alter things a bit, I can tell you waht my new District 4 is (Napersville, Milton, Lisle, Downers Grove, and some of Winfield Townships in Du Page minus narrow tendril to connect Aurora with southside Chicago for the new Hispanic seat) plus a bit of Will and Kendall).  Obama 54.43%, McCain 45.57% so D 1.6 but 40.83% Quinn, 59.17% Brady last fall.  Suggests to me a lot of independent voters that swing heavily one way or the other; definitely winnable to the right kind of centrist Democrat.  When I get to the two seats that are vacant near Melissa Bean, I suspect something a bit more bluer for Quinn but something also a bit swingish.  Illinois is full of split-ticket voters and independents.  It is not a historically Democratic state until rather recently in presidential elections; Gerry Ford won it in 1976 and so did George Bush Senior in 1988, not to mention Reagan in between.

[ Parent ]
You could be right
but naturally PHIL Hare might have democrats spooked.  The PHIL Hare model of having such and such a D PVI does not work if you end up with a junk candidate.  

There has been some interesting maps here on Champaign & Bloomington seats  

[ Parent ]
yup....

[ Parent ]
Accidentally Posted
I accidentally posted this before I entered my data and analysis.  I will add that tonight.
PVIs
From memory, the PVIs are about:
1st - D+30 (Blue)
2nd - D+28 (Green)
3rd - D+8 (Purple)  
4th - D+32 (Red)
5th - D+10 (Gold)
6th - R+6 (Teal)
7th - D+38 (Gray)
8th - D+4 (Purplish Blue)
9th - D+10 (Light Blue)
10th - D+10 (Dark Pink)
11th - R+11 (Yellow Green)
12th - D+4 (Pale Blue)
13th - D+7 (Tan)
14th - R+8 (Brown)
15th - R+10 (Orange)
16th - R+8 (Green)
17th - D+3 (Dark Blue)
18th - R+9 (Yellow)

1, 2, and 7 are each 51.6% Black (VAP) and 4 is 70%+ VAP Hispanic.  I will post much more detailed analysis tonight.

[ Parent ]
Which GOPers would be bumped off theoretically?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Looks to me like Walsh and Dold...
Along with either Kinziger or Schock (whichever one of those two loses the IL-18 GOP primary).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Also
Say which congressmen are in which district to avoid the reader having to go back and forth between here and wikipedia.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Residences
Rush (D) lives in 1st.
Jackson (D) lives in 2nd.
Lipinski (D) lives in 3rd.
Gutierrez (D) lives in 5th (as he did before), but will probably run in 4th.
Quigley (D) lives in new 10th.
Roskam (R) lives in 6th.
Davis (D) lives in 7th.
Walsh (R) lives in 14th, but might run in 8th.
Schakowsky (D) lives in 9th.
Dold (D) lives in 9th.
Kinzinger (R) lives in 18th.
Costello (D) lives in 12th.
Biggert (R) lives in 6th, but might retire.
Hultgren (R) lives in 14th.
Johnson (R) lives in 15h.
Manzullo (R) lives in 16th.
Schilling (R) lives in 17th.
Schock (R) lives in 17th, but might run in 18th.
Shimkus (R) lives in 11th.
[ Parent ]
What are the current VAPs for the VRA districts?
You'll want to avoid retrogression to ensure your map survives in court. (And I'm sure the legislators drawing the real IL map are carefully considering this.)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Can't be avoided
for the black-majority districts.  They're about 100k-200k under population.  When I was playing around w/ the ACS data, the maximum black VAP for 3 districts was about 52%.  So, I assume that this would pass muster

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
retrogression and a 2nd Hispanic seat
Retrogression cannot be avoided, and 51-52% is what I have been able to do for all 3 districts as well.  At the same time, I think the courts and the DOJ might look at what the other 48% consists of.  If you put 48% whites in there, that is probably illegal.  So, no going down to Iroquois and Ford County for Jesse Jackson, Jr. as one map on this website last fall did!  At the same time, I think something like 52- 37-40 black-white is unavoidable and probably legal now.

2nd point, is I think your CD 4 is now illegal VRA-wise.  I have been able to draw two districts that are 65% Hispanic in the south-side one (going out to Aurora and West Chicago via a narrow precinct-wide tendril slashing through Du Page), and a 57-58% Hispanic north-side plus northern Du Page suburbs where there are sizable numbers of Hispanics like Addison Twp and the area out by O'Hare.  Continuing to draw a 70% Hispanic seat is not justifiable like it was 10 years ago, in my opinion.  Ten years ago, there weren't enough Hispanics in Chicago to draw a 2nd seat anyway; now there theoretically are.  Also I would have to guess that a higher percentage of Hispanics in Chicago are citizens of voting age than 10 years ago (particularly children born here who have now turned 18).

[ Parent ]
Since you raised VRA let me sidetrack
to a side issue on the two southside seats.  Most maps mostly keep CD7 in Chicago unless they do two hispanic seats.  

The AA legislators are going to take care of Jesse Jr. and Bobby Rush.  I think VRA requires that AA voters in Chicago proper can't be peeled off to bolster a second hispanic seat in the southside.  I am not sure 48 or 52% matters to AA legislators.  I think both Rush & Jesse Jr will want to keep as much of Chicago as they can plus neither would be too thrilled with 40% of their district being in Will or DuPage or Kankakee county.  

I might add AA legislators from Chicago, who dream of being congressman, will also want to maximize Chicago turf

[ Parent ]
Why not?
You have significant AA populations in Joliet and Kankakee. The most effective way I can see to maximize the black percentages of the three Chicago VRA districts is actually to take in those AA populations from outside Cook County.

My IL-01 district that goes to Joliet is 60% minority VAP and my IL-02 district that goes to Kankakee is 70% minority VAP. They should be solidly Democratic without a doubt.

[ Parent ]
PS.
And by taking in these Democratic voters that are currently being thrown away in IL-11, you can again push that GOP sinkhole deeper into Republican areas further north in the collar counties.
[ Parent ]
yup....
My budding map does just this.... although one version snaking down to Danville might be a bridge too far!  Certainly, though, the best way to get rid of ruby red townships in Will is to blend them into Bobby Rush; Jackson Jr. then gets Peotone and all of Kankakee/southern rural Will.  And in the process you gerrymander out Kinzinger who lives in Kankakee County (at least accord to his candidate filings in 2010).  

The only person who is left out in the cold is Debby Halvorson, who has ties to the State Senate leadership.  I don't know what her relationship is with Madigan, though.

[ Parent ]
I will wait until
I see partisan & racial data before I do my post on this map.  I am sure my comments are highly anticipated but please rest assured I will return.  

I might add thanks for posting this map. Yes this map looks bizarre but if VRA II is complied with it will stand up in court.    

Thanks for posting the VRA and political 2004/2010 numbers
I realize that was not just flipping a switch.  Lots of comments so here goes.

1. The VRA stuff looks okay.  Its clear, however, if the purpose in Chicago was to do a second hispanic or a coalition seat (50% minority) this map does not do it.  Not sure the DOJ will insist on that approach but we may see a lawsuit or two on it.  I might add that AA & hispanic state legislators may not be happy with how the minority community is sliced up here. Some of that is inevitable as whining among community leaders almost seems to be a job description.

2. Thanks for posting the Kirk numbers.  I might add in Il we see more underlying local GOP strength then national GOP numbers.  Kirk outshinned Bush but remember too that Dold and some other local congressional candidates did as well.  Seats like 3-5-8-9-10 show that suburban voters can and do swing.

Here's my final thoughts on IL and this map

a. city versus suburban.  This map like many others here connect Chicago with various suburban areas to maximize D votes.  Here's a point to ponder that at 2.7 million this map could lead to 8 congressman from Chicago.  Cook suburbs with 2.4 million could have none.  Lake county is carved up three ways and might not have one congressman.  One can argue whether Jan S. is surburban or city based as her intial win was due, primary wise, to strong Chicago ties.  I don't see suburban legislators, D legislators, from Lake/Cook/Will  basically handing their area congressional seats to Chicago.  Suburban voters don't vote like Chicago voters so he could be a dummymander plan but either way I don't believe it will happen.

b. The same holds for rural  or really outstate democrats.  I don't see Cook county or other suburban counties being attached to outstate areas.  The Rockford to DuPage county plan, IMO, will not fly.  It was one thing to protect Lane Evans and to have all parties agree on a plan but I don't see say Danville legislators surrendering their county to Rock Island.  I could be wrong but after the passage of the midnight tax plan I think outstate legislators are going to keep their congressional seats to themselves.  Now this plan only one seat like this but generally speaking there is a huge resentment between Chicago proper and its suburbs and outstate area.  I don't see legislators giving up their territory to Chicago based seats.  

Illinois Democratic Gerrymander 12-6 - Updated | 33 comments

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