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MO-Sen: GOP Primary Poll Has Steelman Leading

by: DavidNYC

Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 3:08 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/6-9, "usual Missouri Republican primary voters," no trendlines):

Sarah Steelman (R): 31
Todd Akin (R): 24
Ed Martin (R): 9
Ann Wagner (R): 2
Undecided/other: 34

Sarah Steelman (R): 37
Ed Martin (R): 18
Ann Wagner (R): 11
Undecided/other: 34
(MoE: ±4.9%)

I don't have much to say here except that the primary vote share (either with or without Akin) almost perfectly correlates with how well known these candidates are - as in, a correlation of 1. Put another way, if you add each person's "don't know" share on the favorable/unfavorable question to their vote share on the horserace question, you get just about the same number for all candidates. This says to me that Ed Martin has a lot of work to do to get his name out there, and that Todd Akin (who has only just now ramped up to "considering" status) should not be scared off by Sarah Steelman's early lead.

And just for fun:

Mike Huckabee (R): 29
Newt Gingrich (R): 19
Sarah Palin (R): 14
Mitt Romney (R): 13
Ron Paul (R): 7
Mitch Daniels (R): 4
Tim Pawlenty (R): 3
Haley Barbour (R): 2
Other/undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.9%)
DavidNYC :: MO-Sen: GOP Primary Poll Has Steelman Leading
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Perfect
I couldn't imagine better numbers for setting up the possibility of a ferocious GOP primary that leaves its victor battered. There's something in it to encourage each one of these folks to run.

Steelman has her lead, Akin is a close second and does well when voters know both candidates. But Martin & Wagner can both see that there's no clear leader, which makes it possible for them to get some breathing room, especially since both are pretty good fund-raisers. And the two second-tier options appear well-poised to be able to siphon off voters who aren't particularly fond of either top candidate, as evidenced by how much they improve when Akin is out of the equation.

Cat fud, baby. Learn it, know it, love it.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


No way Akin & Wagner both run
If Akin runs for Senate (which I find almost laughable) then Wagner would run for his house seat. Best case for me whould be that scenario and Akin losing the primary (I think he's a huge douche, personal reasons...).

These polls arent' really that useful with everyone so unknown, the amount of money and establishment support Wagner brings to the table would probably cut of Steelman at the knees, I'd even go so far as to call her my "favorite" to win a contested primary if everyone (exect Akin) were to run. I'd also bet that 1 of Martin/Steelman would eventually bow out and run for LG w/ Kinder rather than risk getting schellacked in the primary.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


I will go one step further
no way Martin or Wagner runs if Adkin does.  Adkin will suck most of the St Louis party support from Martin.  St Louis area is already only 1/3 of primary vote.  No way Martin can win with it divided.

Oh Martin & maybe Wagner could tangle in combined CD2/CD3 to face off against Carnahan


[ Parent ]
Martin won't care about that, teabaggers like him aren't influenced by realism......
Martin is a crazy teabagger, and those crazies always believe they're electable, they can wipe out the competition.  They believed that last year before there was any reason to justify believing it, and now after people like Angle and Miller and O'Donnell and Paul won primaries, and Paul even got elected, they're delusions of grandeur are at an all-time high.

Regarding Wagner, you could be right, she's an establishmentarian, which implies realism.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Missouri Senate
If McCaskills "airplane woes" get the best of her (I hope they don't), who are the Dems that could step up and run instead?

I imagine that people would be
trying to get Jay Nixon, though I'm sure the DGA would fight them on that one.

One of the Carnahans, maybe?  Robin lost last time, but it was a terrible year and she'd hardly be the first person to make a comeback.  And Russ is probably going to be looking for work.


[ Parent ]
Why is this even in
discussion right now? Nothing says McCaskill is politically dead in Missouri. Until that happens this is pointless.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Yup, misguided hand-wringing over a non-story that voters don't care about. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
There are no "airplane woes," DavidNYC is right that this is a manufactured non-story......
McCaskill followed the letter and spirit of the law and ethical rules, with maybe one minor unintended and arguable slip-up.  You can conduct an investigative report on every Senator and find "ethical issues" on the same level as this one.

This is not a scandal except in the Politico press room.  McCaskill is right to do whatever is necessary to kill the story, that's smart politics to prevent it from morphing into some new story...the Politico crew would just let emotional pique drive them keep digging for more dirt akin to opposition researchers.

This entire non-story is driven by a few reporters hungrily digging for the next Watergate to make themselves superstars, the dream of every political journalist for the past 35-plus years.

Voters do not care and will not care about this.  This is one example where feeling distant from politics, as most voters do, constitutes a "healthy distance" that provides proper perspective.  Voters will shrug this off, and actually most have never heard of it and never will.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Republicans
are good at the art of making things seem more serious than they actually are. But besides a silly TV ad there and a silly TV ad there "Airplanegate" won't hurt McCaskill in the long run.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Claire's recent discussion of the plane
sounds akward and politically unpopular.

1. She explained that she only spent $2000 on a trip that she could have been $2200 if she bought her 1st class round trip ticket on a major airline.  Senators usually do not like to explain that they are using taxpayer money to pay round trip 1st class tickets.  Any discussion of her using taxpayer money to buy 1st class round trip airline tickets is a losing plan.  Any that a politican has to give about taxpayer paying for 1st class tickets.

2. This was no little private plane.  This is was a luxury high cost jet plane that Mr. Shephard used as a business venture and tax writeoff.  It was available for charter to Claire and other customers.  Plus the owners could jet ahead from St Louis to Florida for weekend get aways.  This is private executive Jet airplane for highrollers.  This is not a crop duster its a jet plane like what the GM executives flew in when they came for handouts.  

3. Claire's government use of this plane benefited her family.  Period end of story.  Its like renting an office from your husband.  Legitmate but there you have it.  The family's venture benefitted from it.  Yes I know her chartering this plane saved money over a 1st class plane ticket-1st class plane ticket paid for by taxpayers dollars.

This will not go away.  


[ Parent ]
I thought you were only going to comment on redistricting


[ Parent ]
But I see your true colors shining through...
I see your true colors, and that's why I (don't) love you...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
This feels like you are really
Reaching, and stretching, and pushing, and full of concern. I mean, you're getting close to the tone of an opposition research memo here.

And I'm never one to shy away from confronting ugly problems for Democrats. Anyone who has read this site for the past zillion years knows that. But this just ain't one of them. Oh, it could have more legs than it deserves, thanks to the likes of Politico. But this is not a career-ender or game-changer.


[ Parent ]
Claire McCaskill's political stances sound politically unpopular


[ Parent ]
This is exactly right
This is not a scandal except in the Politico press room.

[ Parent ]
Isn't the Politico press room itself a scandal? n/t


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Politico is
the journalistic equivalent of taking one step forward and then taking one or even two or three steps backwards. It's good because it covers the horse race stuff pretty well, especially because it aggregates a lot of information, but since it's always trying to publish something, it seems to publish a lot of nothing. It'd probably help for them to slow it down just a hair and focus on deeper reporting, kind of like The New Yorker.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]

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