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VT-Sen: Auditor Tom Salmon (R) Says He's Forming Exploratory Committee

by: DavidNYC

Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 12:49 PM EST


This is going to be one hell of a task for state Auditor Tom Salmon:

"I do need to take the next step, and that step will be to, beginning tonight, I'm declaring that I'm entering an exploratory phase for U.S. Senate," the Republican told WCAX-TV in Vermont on Wednesday. He had already announced that he would not seek re-election as state auditor, a statewide elected position he has won three times.

Unseating Sanders is a "daunting task," Salmon said.

"I think at this point, there are probably three people who think I can win, and the good news is I'm one of them. ... The idea here is to make a smart decision before fully declaring myself as a full-time committed candidate for U.S. Senate," he said.

In 2008, Vermont was the second-bluest state in the nation, giving Obama a 37-point victory. Only Hawaii, the president's birthplace, saw a bigger margin. Salmon, who was a Democrat until 2009, is probably as good a get as the GOP can hope for, but Sen. Bernie Sanders is no slouch. In his first senate campaign in 2006, he raised an impressive $5.5 million - a huge sum for a tiny state - and crushed his wealthy Republican opponent Rich Tarrant 65-33, despite Tarrant spending over $7 million of his own money on the race.

Anyhow, Salmon, who once told Dave Catanese that he's "65% in" but now seems less certain, sounds like a cross between Charlie Sheen and L. Ron Hubbard here:

"I am not attached to the 2012 outcome, my odds, or my political career. I don't need to be senator, or governor, or stay put as state auditor - I need to be an authentic self-utilizing power along the lines of excellence," he said. "I am deeply concerned that we address risks of economic, political and spiritual significance through a new brand of leaders that communicate effectively from the sincere center."

Tom Salmon will destroy you in the air. Right after he's done purging his body thetans.

UPDATE: We've been leaked an advance preview of Tom Salmon's first campaign poster!

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DavidNYC :: VT-Sen: Auditor Tom Salmon (R) Says He's Forming Exploratory Committee
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VT-Sen: Auditor Tom Salmon (R) Says He's Forming Exploratory Committee | 96 comments
It's Tom
Tom Salmon

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
Not a hard mistake to make though
Tim Salmon was a baseball player for the Angles when they won the World Series in "02, and he's probably much more famous than the Vermont guy.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Huh
I think you must be right. I've been thinking of him as "Tim" ever since I first heard of him. Must be on account of the Angels great.
[ Parent ]
I'm really surprised he
Choose Bernie fricking Sanders over Peter Welch. Sanders isn't going to lose to anyone baring a major scandal, particularly not in a year where Obama will be dominating Vermont with probably close to 70% is the Republicans nominate someone other than Mitt Romney. He'll be doing great if he cracks 40%.
*if the Republicans

[ Parent ]
He has to be polling ok against Sanders
and by ok, I mean @ 20 point behind.  
[ Parent ]
I think it's probably
closer to: he's polling at 25 or so, and Sanders is at 50-55. But to be honest I haven't been able to figure out this guys logic since he, the scion of one Vermont's long-time Democratic families, switched parties a few months after Obama won 67% of the vote and it was clear Vermont was moving towards a permanently Democratically inclined electorate.
[ Parent ]
It isn't about logic with Salmon
It is all about ego and an overblown sense of his own importance.

He switched parties in a snit. The Republican Governor (Jim Douglas) and the Democratic legislative leaders were engaged in intense budget negotiations in 2009. Salmon decided to grandstand by offering to "mediate" the difference between the two sides - after having publicly taking Douglas' side on most of the issues involved. The Democrats said "no thanks, get lost". Salmon got pissed at the Democrats, and a couple of weeks later he announced he was becoming a Republican.

It wasn't done as part of a grand political strategy, it wasn't done on principle - it was a spur of the moment action taken in a fit of pique.

That's a real insight into how Tom Salmon operates. He is impulsive, irrational, and convinced that he matters a great deal more than he actually does.  

[ Parent ]
Well, then the GOP is set!
... Meaning, the GOP is set to lose yet another US Senate election in Vermont! Is this really the best they have? ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
They have better, but none of them are dumb enough to run against Sanders
Lt. Gov. Phil Scott is probably their most promising up and comer. He's viewed as moderate, is a very capable campaigner, and has real blue collar appeal (owns a small construction company and is a successful race car driver). My assumption is that he serves a few terms as Lt Gov and then runs for Governor at some point (perhaps when Shumlin leaves).

State Senator Randy Brock is probably the more conservative end of the party's great hope. He was state auditor - defeated in 2006 by Tom Salmon after a recount. He's fairly smart and politically savvy, and definitely has ambitions (probably will run for Auditor in 2012 now that Salmon is leaving). He is African-American, which is an interesting anomaly in a state as white as Vermont.

Some Republicans are excited by Thom Lauzon - he's the Mayor of the traditionally Democratic small city of Barre,and has been aggressively raising his profile for a while. He will probably run for Governor or Senator in 2012, depending on what Salmon does. I personally don't think he'll transfer to the statewide scene very well (too brusque and aggressive, not much policy depth)  but some Republicans I know seem sincerely excited by him.

There are a handful of others who could conceivably run state wide - a few state Senators like Kevin Mullin, members of the Snelling family, and a handful of state Representatives - but their bench is not particularly deep nor impressive, which isn't surprising given the partisan balance in the state.  

[ Parent ]
Brock
Isn't he nearing 70?
[ Parent ]
He's 68
But actually doesn't seem it -- he's extremely active and highly visible.  I live in his county, and there is a general consensus that he wants to run statewide again. Although if he wants to stay in the state Senate and be the conservative voice (on the losing end of virtually every vote), his seat is extremely safe.

He almost ran against Salmon in the primary for Auditor in 2010 -- party officials were circulating petitions for him, but he pulled the plug on it before the deadline and filed for re-election to the state Senate instead.

[ Parent ]
Isn't Dianne Snelling too liberal
for present day Republican party? She seems to be the most liberal state Senator in Vermont, and one of the most liberal in the nation.. That helps her to win in usually Democratic Chittenden county but still ....(she is much more liberal then Scozzafava was..))))
[ Parent ]
Diane isn't the only Snelling
Her brother Mark nearly beat Phil Scott for the GOP Lt Gov nomination last year - by running to the right of Scott.  Scott is pro-choice, voted for marriage equality, supported making it easier for terminal patients to die with physician assistance, and is relatively pro-union and reasonably pro-environment -- he won the primary over Snelling despite being criticized for many of these positions.

Diane Snelling is a moderate, not liberal Republican, and certainly not the most liberal state Senator in Vermont. (Even among her fellow Republicans, she's probably about on par with Doyle, Illuzi and Mullin, depending on the specific issue.)

Unlike most of the rest of the country, moderates are still a very large part of the Republican party in Vermont, and being socially progressive, pro-environment, business-friendly, fiscally conservative is not a major barrier to winning a party nomination. (It is no guarantee of it either, as there are quite a few conservatives in the party too.)

Republicans in the rest of the country might not like them, but there are still a bunch of moderates left in the Vermont Republican party.  

[ Parent ]
I kept in my mind Illuzzi and Doyle
but Mullin seemed more conservative to me (at least - on social issues). I called Snelling "the most liberal" (ampng Re[ublicans, of course) state Senator because of her rather high score from women, environment and labor organizations, as well as relatively low - from business one.. But - thanks for info!!!
[ Parent ]
Mullin is more liberal on social issues than economic
He voted for marriage equality and to override Douglas' veto of the bill. (Illuzzi was opposed.) He is pretty middle of the road on choice, privacy, and other social issues.

He is more conservative on economic and environmental issues.

[ Parent ]
Thanks!
May be i have mistaken him for somebody else. It's rather difficult to get an information about ideological orientation of legislators in many states..
[ Parent ]
I would be a little surprised if Phil Scott survives to 2012

And a little disappointed.

After C Bass (NH-02), P Scott (VT-LG) would be the second most endangered republican incumbent running for reelection in 2012 that would be not seriously affected by some redistricting process (seats to disappear or become a lot bluer).

I think P Scott would be surely weaker than T Salmon at this point (looking to the results of 2010).

[ Parent ]
I disagree strongly
Scott is much more popular and has good chances to survive. Doulas has shown that even in Vermont that's quite posible for more or less reasonable Republican (and Scott is one of them). Salmon, on the other hand, is an empty suit - famous name and nothing more..
[ Parent ]
I agree with you about Salmon
No doubt. And surely I would use worse word still.

But, the best test for know about the popularity of the republicans running statewide in Vermont is the last election:

VT-SA: 120,237 52.00% T Salmon
VT-Gov: 115,212 47.69% B Dubie
VT-LG: 116,198 49.38% P Scott
VT-SS: 101,144 44.11% J Gibbs
VT-AL: 076,403 32.03% P Beaudry
VT-AG: 067,900 29.40% A Toscano

That talk not good about T Salmon. That talk bad about the rest of the republicans. If all them have worse results than T Salmon, they are really weak.

This is the rank of the republican winners from lower percentage to higher (the negative number is the difference between his result and the average of the republicans for the US House this year):

01 - 13.99% ME-Gov P LePage (2014)
02 - 04.10% IA-SS M Schultz (2014)
03 - 04.01% OH-AG M DeWine (2014)
04 - 03.91% TX-27 B Farenthold (benefits from the redistricting)
05 - 03.54% IL-Sen M Kirk (2016)
06 - 03.43% SD-AL K Noem
07 - 03.42% NV-03 J Heck (benefits from the redistricting)
08 - 03.41% FL-12 D Ross (benefits from the redistricting)
09 - 03.37% MN-03 C Cravaak (benefits from the redistricting)
10 - 03.21% NH-02 C Bass
11 - 03.10% NJ-LG K Guadagno (2013)
12 - 03.10% NJ-Gov C Christie (2013)
13 - 03.08% IL-08 J Walsh (damaged from the redistricting)
14 - 03.04% NY-25 A Buerkle (damaged from the redistricting)
15 - 02.68% FL-LG J Carroll (2014)
16 - 02.68% FL-Gov R Scott (2014)
17 - 02.66% FL-Sen M Rubio (2016)
18 - 02.41% OH-LG M Taylor (2014)
19 - 02.41% OH-Gov J Kasich (2014)
20 - 02.17% VT-LG P Scott

In the top-20 of the republicans underperforming (in 2009 and 2010, there are not incumbents since before underperforming) the alone what must run in 2012 and can not have benefit or damage from the redistricting there are C Bass, P Scott and K Noem.

C Bass vs A Kuster is a espected rematch.
P Scott can have harder rivals than S Howard. If people like D Markowitz want the office surely he would be the most endangered of all.
K Noem can have high risk if S Herseth-Sandlin run again, if not, the democratic chance down a lot.

Then looking to the numbers my argument is not rare, is so logical.

[ Parent ]
According to your logic Rubio is
very weak. I disagree politely))). And Vermont - of course it's generally Democratic, especially in presidential year. But Scott has almost 2 years to solidify his position, and he is a much more ttalented politician then Salmon to do just that. We shall see rather soon)))
[ Parent ]
Rubio is not strong Rubio was lucky of have the democratic vote divided

Rubio underperfoms the republican average and win only 0.02% more votes than the new governor R Scott. This is real, and is not impressive. 2016 is a presidential year and maybe not easy for him. Still, his potential blue challengers are a lot weaker than for VT-LG.

I will talk not about the talent of P Scott, but a republican under 50% in Vermont in the most republican year since 1994, is not my model of a strong politician.

While you smile politely, I win the babckas ;) (looking to the numbers)

[ Parent ]
I am glad that you win, but i stick to MY estimates))

[ Parent ]
You do realize that Rs have held the VT LtGov
continuously -- since '03.
[ Parent ]
I give some numbers in the answer to Smoltchanov

I think the democrats from Vermont are not silly. The governor seems a smart politician.

It is the right momment for defeat P Scott, if you want not to have some trouble with him some day (like now with T Salmon).

J Spaulding, D Markowitz, D Racine, M Dunne... there are a decent number of democrats what would be able for win VT-LG and VT-SA in 2012.

I think the alone chance of the republicans for keeping VT-LG is if the prominent democrats from Vermont leaves him as sleeping gubernatorial candidate until he find an open seat or a bad year for the democrats.

[ Parent ]
Not convinced at all
Almost all of them ran in 2010 and lost primary - that's one. Racine lost to Douglas before. Not an "excellent quality material"..
[ Parent ]
Looking to the democratic primary results

at least we can tell they are "material of close quality" to the current Governor.

Peter Shumlin 18,276 24.8%
Doug Racine 18,079 24.6%
Deborah Markowitz 17,579 23.9%
Matt Dunne 15,323 20.8%

Surely enough for VT-LG and VT-SA

[ Parent ]
What does that prove???

[ Parent ]
It is about more than the numbers
Vermont is a small state with very personal politics.

Phil Scott is well-liked and respected across party lines. He projects a non-ideological, non-partisan appeal that Vermont Independent voters really like.  While Vermont voters tend to vote Democrat, the majority of them define themselves as "independent" and won't vote someone out of office simply because of what party they belong to. Phil Scott has tremendous appeal to those independent voters. Many of them will make a point of voting for a Republican they like just to prove to themselves that they aren't straight-party ticket voters and are really independent - so while they are voting for Obama, Sanders, Welch, Shumlin and the other statewide candidates, they will make a point of voting for Scott.

Phil Scott has very good relations with state Democrats. When he was in the overwhelmingly Democratic Senate, the Democrats appointed him to leadership positions (that they didn't have to). Governor Shumlin has made Scott part of his Cabinet and includes him in policy discussions -- pretty extraordinary for someone from the other party. The party leadership has no personal animus against Scott.

While as a Democrat I would greatly like to defeat Phil Scott to prevent him from being a candidate in the future, it will be extremely difficult to do if he doesn't mess up in his current position.

I can tell you, as a politically active Vermont Democrat, under current circumstances Phil Scott is very likely to be re-elected in 2012, even if Democrats run a very strong candidate and aggressive campaign against him -- and at this point, it isn't certain that Vermont Democrats will be able to find a strong candidate or will make this race a priority.


[ Parent ]
VT-LG

I have not doubt about if P Scott is one of the most prominent republicans from the state. This what you tell surely talks better about the democrats from Vermont than about P Scott.

Despite as democrats we can use this way for talk about P Scott, the campaign should not be based on this. I'm not talking about strategies for a campaign. I agree, the people would vote not for fire the republican, but the people can vote democratic if the democratic candidate is better and have better points about the issues.

Do you think the political career of the politicians that lost the gubernatorial primary is over? (D Racine, D Markowitz, M Dunne...) and J Spaulding?

Maybe some of them run not for office again, but others will likely run again, and VT-SA (Open) and VT-LG (P Scott-R) give them a good chance for a bid, the only chance for return in the next 10? years.

The numbers of P Scott are very weak comparing with other republicans in other parts of the country, then, I wish someone bid and win here. The democrats will have few options like these for win new offices. Vermont should give gains to the democrats this cycle, there are very few options like VT-SA and VT-LG (except other republicans seriously damaged by the redistricting process).

P Scott can be in the right ideological line, but that mean not he will survive. He should lose in 2012.

If the democrats run with a no-name candidate then I would call VT-LG as Leans Republican as worse (very low for a maximum having a republican incumbent). Easily that would go to Toss-Up if the democratic candidate has some success fundraising.

If the democrats run with a decent level candidate (I mean state senators, etc...) I would call VT-LG as Toss-Up surely with some tilt D.

If the democrats run with someone high level candidate like D Racine, J Spaulding or D Markowitz I would call the race Leans Democratic (very bad for a republican incumbent).

That before the polls.

I encourage you as democratic vermonters to find someone better actively, because looking to the overall map, here is one of the weakest incumbents no damaged by the redistricting process in all the entire country. We can live with P Scott, but sure the democrats from Vermont will find someone better.

[ Parent ]
Well, i am not a Democrat
So - it's "forgiveable" for me to choose a candidate i like - party labels notwithstanding...
[ Parent ]
Or Peter Shumlin
He could actually be vulnerable, since he only won by a point last year and Republicans have had success at the gubernatorial level recently. I really don't get this move.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Salmon's off his rocker
I don't think rationality enters into this.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Peter Shumlin was acutally to say
who I meant, but yeah. Even Peter Welch would be more vulnerable than Sanders.  
[ Parent ]
Peter Shumlin
isn't up until 2014. Who knows what the situation will be by then. A lot of Democrats have won tight races in Democratic districts/states to later win reelection in landslides, or Republicans in tight races later to win landslides.  
[ Parent ]
Shumlin is up in 2012
We've got 2 year terms for Governor in Vermont.  
[ Parent ]
still?
I thought New Hampshire was the only one left.  
[ Parent ]
Still, NH and VT are the last hold outs
Every now and then the legislature takes a look at changing it to 4 years, but it never even gets out of committee.

[ Parent ]
It's a quaint little holdover
deep in the rural corner of New England.  
[ Parent ]
Welch isn't vulnerable either
Peter Welch hasn't been in DC as long as Bernie, but after his initial competitive 2006 race for the open seat (when Bernie gave it up to run for Senate), he has established an extremely strong hold. He's got great constituent service, manages to be very accessible across the state, and he keeps his name in the news with lots of positive stories. Especially in a Presidential year, Welch is simply not vulnerable.

Even if Salmon were somehow to get elected to the House seat, a Republican in a blue state would have no job security in a seat that comes up every 2 years - at least a Senate seat would give a 6 year term.

I actually think his best shot for moving up would be to run for Governor. Vermont is far more willing to elect Republicans to the executive position than we are to send one to Washington (since the hot button ideological issues are easier to avoid in state office), and Salmon's political career has been focused on state issues. Shumlin just started his first two-year term after a very narrow election win, and hasn't necessarily cemented his hold on Vermont voters - and could potentially be vulnerable if some of his initiatives (implementing single payer, closing the Vermont Yankee nuclear plant, severe cutbacks in some state services, etc) prove unsuccessful or unpopular.  Tom Salmon's dad was Governor (as a Democrat, of course).

But the bottom line is Tom Salmon stands virtually no chance of being elected to the Senate, House or Governorship. He was more or less an accidental state Auditor, often makes a fool of himself when he opens his mouth to speak, and has a bizarre sense of himself that makes him his own worst enemy.  In either of the federal races, he'd be very lucky to break 40%, and while he might do better for Governor, he'd still be a very long shot for the Republicans (who actually don't like him all that much either).  

[ Parent ]
I really don't think
Closing the power plant is a good idea personally. With renovation it could be a continued cheap source of clean energy. Where are these energy demands going to me from now?
[ Parent ]
Entergy has lost the confidence of Vermonters
I'm not opposed to nuclear power, but the Vermont Yankee plant is probably beyond redemption, especially with their current ownership.

Recent years have been a nearly endless stream of disaster stories from the plant - cooling tower collapse, endless tritium leaks, and a company that has consistently mislead or lied to the state government and public.

The plant was already slated to be closed in 2012 - they are asking for an extension, one that they have not earned.

Vermont is fortunate to have access to cheap plentiful clean electricity through our close relationship with Hydro Quebec's ever expanding hydro-electric generation projects. (Not that there aren't issues with the impacts of their dams, but far preferable to coal fired or aged nuclear plants).  Long term contracts are being negotiated and signed that are as good as anything that would be available from Entergy.  

[ Parent ]
Breaking News
Tom Salmon hires Charlie Sheen as campaign director.

WINNING!

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

Tom Salmon isn't bi-partisan
He's bi-winning!
[ Parent ]
Or
bi-insane.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Tom Salmon will melt your face off
And your children will weep over your exploded body
[ Parent ]
For the time being, I say this moves VT-Sen into Likely Dem
That is, until polling suggests otherwise. I think Salmon can definitely score in the low-40s here, but beyond that, sure, it'll be very difficult. I don't think Sanders is sitting atop a 60% approval rating, though. Someone oughta poll this.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Bernie won 65% in 2006
He did that as a non-incumbent, despite being outspent by more than a million bucks.

There is nothing to suggest he has lost any popularity since that time - he runs an incredibly strong in state operation (politically and constituent service-wise), and has gotten very strong reviews for his performance as Senator.

Bernie is one of those politicians whose popularity crosses most expected lines of ideology, geography, and class. I have neighbours who literally have a Bush sticker, a NRA sticker, and a Bernie sticker on their pick-up, and that is not unusual.

I'd argue that VT-Sen stays Safe Independent (Dem) unless someone produces a poll indicating that Salmon has even a remote chance. The burden of proof in this case should fall on those trying to make the case he is viable - because I can tell you that sitting here in Vermont, none of the politicos I know (of any party affiliation) think he is a serious threat to Bernie on any level.  

[ Parent ]
He was kinda an incumbent
he had already repeatedly won a statewide race.  
[ Parent ]
Interesting
I'd agree it'd be nice to see polling to be 100% sure, maybe PPP will take a look soon, but past history and the lack of any obvious factor dragging Sanders down would make it C.W. that Salmon is an extreme long-shot. How moderate is Salmon, does anyone know? Fiscal conservatism sounds like the cause of his defection, but are his social views more in line with his original Dem affiliation? Could give him a shot, is all I'm saying.

About the NRA bumper sticker thing- Sanders voted with the NRA on gun lawsuits in 2005 and earns an overall C rating from them, and it's been said that Rep. Peter Smith's (R) support for the Brady Bill and Sanders' opposition to it was partly behind Sanders' original victory in 1990. That could explain that part of your anecdote, though how the hell anyone can support Bush and the most prominent self-described socialist in elected office in America at the same time I will never understand.

[ Parent ]
no
Salmon doesn't meet the minimum plausibility threshold. Sanders could be videotaped snorting a line of coke off a hooker's ass and still win by 20 points.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Ha!
"Sanders could be videotaped snorting a line of coke off a hooker's ass and still win by 20 points."

I'd have a lot more respect for political pundits if they described the races like this.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Could he survive
A snowjob though?  
[ Parent ]
The senior Senator from Maine
Has nothing to do with it.
[ Parent ]
My 1st thought is that Senator (insert name here)
from the blue state of (insert name) is probably safe.  He won by a solid margin in 2006 and senator (insert name here) is hard working and a good fundraiser.  He should be safe in 2012.

I have seen any recent polling on this state but I have no reason to think he will lose.  It is odd that a big name GOP guy would pick this year and this senator to run.  So maybe he knows something?  

Alternative slogan: Only dead Salmon swim upstream.


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Sanders is obviously strongly favored
Bit Salmon will, probably, be able to get slightly over 40%, and famous name must help. I wonder why no one mentions as possible statewide candidate long-term (but still not old) state Senator Illuzzi - rather moderate, with good reputation, and good relations with unions (rare thing among modern day Republicans)?...
Illuzzi used to float his name every election
But eventually became the "boy who cried wolf" - he flirted with running for higher office every two years, but never followed through.

In 2008 he nearly ran as an independent candidate for Governor against Republican Jim Douglas - after being pushed by then Senate Majority Leader Peter Shumlin.

He's an interesting character (he's my state Senator) - but I think he has missed his chance to run for higher office.  

[ Parent ]
how old is he?
bernie is no spring chicken himself
[ Parent ]
Illuzzi is 57, Sanders is 69 /nt

[ Parent ]
I think this is big enough that I shouldn't have to wait for an open thread
Gingrich has his exploratory committee website up (and it's loltastic)
http://thinkprogress.org/2011/...

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
I disagree!
You'll have to wait about 10 minutes.
[ Parent ]
in other words
the newster will be getting mentioned shortly with a dedicated post by you........
[ Parent ]
CLASSIC
this "rollout"(his weird statement)ranks right up there with the carly fiorina "blimp" and "demon sheep".........
Yay, now VT can get a better Auditor!
Also, great poster at the end there! lol

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Sure :)

I think T Salmon runs for senate because he was in very serious risk of be defeated.

Here is necessary a good work of recruitment for VT-LG and VT-SA races.

[ Parent ]
He has lox of support
according to a comment on Politico.
Just think of all the punny diary titles you guys could come up with if Salmon runs. I hope he leaps into the race.
You mean when Bernie "smokes" him?

[ Parent ]
Slamon would certainly be swimming upstream...
Thank you... I'll be here all week!  Try the veal!
[ Parent ]
Hey
Obama even gave him a shout out during the SOTU.
[ Parent ]
more smoking republicans!
first dubie, not salmon :) yay

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Blunt didn't work so well

[ Parent ]
It's because...
Secy. Carnahan sucked too much.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
In Soviet Russia...
Blunt smokes you!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I'm surprised people here are thinking this guy could break 40%
I mean, for God's sake, look at that word salad in the post. He probably couldn't effectively communicate what he wants for breakfast, much less why people should vote for him for the Senate.
Any noncrazy Republican can get 35% in Vermont in usual year
Famous name easily adds 5 more
[ Parent ]
Is that so?
Sanders has been routinely getting challengers who routinely don't even break 35% (and this was back when Vermont wasn't nearly as Democratic as it was today).

Plus, I don't get how Salmon's last name really helps him any, given that his father hasn't been governor in over 35 years.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Sanders either had a no-name opponents
or (as in 2006 Senate race) ran in very good Democratic years. 35 is a floor for "normal" Republican in "normal" years. Better ones - Douglas, Scott and so on, are able to win over 50% even in excellent Democratic years as Douglas has shown in 2008. Vermont is liberal, but it's no DC or NYC...
[ Parent ]
For governor though, not Senate
In a presidential year when Obama will defeat any of the Republicans' hapless nominees by over 20 points, I doubt there will be much ticket splitting, especially given that Bernie Sanders is actually extremely popular in Vermont.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
VT is arguably more liberal than either of those.
Because they are on the road to getting single-payer health care.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That's state-level government.
Besides, in 2010, the polished moderate Dubie gets smoked by liberal Democrat Shumlin.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Dubie was a conservative on many social issues
And that's anathema in Verrmont. In 2012 Democrats will win everything there. But i expect Scott to mount very serious Governor campaign there in 2014. In addition - Shumlin is prone to some antics - i read that even some Democrats in Vermont considered him "slightly crazy" during last year campaign..
[ Parent ]
Scott '14
I disagree.  Vermont does not kick out incumbents, (actually holding the office incumbents, not statewide official running for a higher office "incumbent") only one senator has lost re-election since the 17th amendment.  Further few LT Governors have been ELECTED governor in their own right (Dean doesn't count as he ascended to the office when Snelling Died).  I think Kunin may be the only LT governor who was elected governor on her own in decades.  

That being said, I think Scott's smart enough to wait until Shumlin retires UNLESS Shumlin appears exceptionally weak.  This would probably require a strong challenge from the Progressives and or Liberty Union Party and anger or disillusionment from the middle.  Basically if Shumlin tries to get single payer passed, it becomes as heated, or more heated than the national HCR debate AND single payer fails to pass.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
About Dubie
Smoltanchov contended that Dubie is socially conservative (for a Vermonter).  Is that accurate?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Yes, Dubie is socially conservative
He is anti-choice. He tried to get around that during the campaign by saying that it wasn't an issue the governor would deal with because the legislature is pro-choice and would never send an anti-abortion bill for signature. The Shumlin campaign ran ads slamming him on it, and highlighting measures Dubie had supported to restrict abortion rights. Dubie responded with ads featuring pro-choice Republican women stating their support for Dubie. It didn't work, and probably played a big role in Dubie's loss.

He opposed marriage equality, civil unions, and other gay friendly measures.

He has often focused on hot button issues with a social component --- anti-crime, mandatory minimum sentences, personal property rights (vs. environmental issues), snowmobiles and ATVs on state land (yes, a big issue up here), vocal support for the military, anti-teachers' union, etc. He notably criticized the legislative Democrats for hiring a Chinese-American professor to conduct the study of health care financing - in terms that some thought was coded racist language, or at least highly insensitive.

He got some criticism during the campaign for adopting as his slogan "Pure Vermont" - some interpreted as an implicit appeal to the more reactionary parts of the state's resentment of "outsider liberals" who have taken over the state (akin to the anti-civil union campaign slogan of "Take Back Vermont"), and the chair of the state US Commission on Civil Rights advisory commission was fired (by the Bush holdovers who run the national commission) after he criticized it for being tone deaf to the history of eugenics and other racial "purity" elements in Vermont.

In the end, Dubie went into the 2010 election with a reputation as a generally nice guy who was somewhat more conservative than the state as a whole. His aggressively negative personal campaign against Shumlin (at least by Vermont standards) erased that nice guy reputation and made his social conservatism much more of a liability than it might otherwise have been.  
 

[ Parent ]
I disagree about the "pure vermont" thing
while it may have been seen as a "purity" thing it seems more like the campaign liked cute sayings.  there was "co-pilots, take-offs and probably others that were puns off of the fact that Dubie was a pilot.

Further, I'd like to point out that michigan has a "pure michigan" tourism campaign they started under granholm in 2006 that is their official tourism website.  other states have probably used the "pure insert state name" as well.  

http://www.michigan.org/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Who said that can't happen around 2014?
I am almost sure that Shumlin will run and win in 2012. 2014 may be complerely another matter.. After all - Shumlin may retire by 2014..
[ Parent ]
i can't imagine shumlin retiring so soon
not saying it's impossible, but he's a career politician.  he's been a state rep, state senator pro temp. ran for LT Gov and barely won two difficult elections in 2010.  the only ways someone leaves after 4 years are scandal (unlikely, but possible) hating the job (his life in political office would suggest otherwise) or being DOA ala patterson (also unlikely, especially in VT, but not impossible).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
We shall see
It's not that far away))
[ Parent ]
Not sure I would agree that he qualifies as "noncrazy".

[ Parent ]
For me - absolutely
I am not his admirer, but he is surely not Christine O'Donnell or Sharron Angle...
[ Parent ]
He seems crazy in a different way
It isn't that he is politically crazy - far off to the extreme right. His political views are pretty mainstream conservative by all appearances

But as his infamous quote (used in the poster for this story) shows, he often comes off as personally rather strange and perhaps unbalanced.  

Folks I know in the Vermont press corps who have attended his press events say that they are painfully uncomfortable affairs with Salmon spewing extremely random and non-sensical statements at great length. He speaks with a sense of inflated personal importance, often fails to acknowledge personal responsibility (his radio appearances after his DUI were amazing exercises in deflection),and  lapses into bizarre pyscho-babble phrases. It is worth noting that he has a notable substance abuse history.

I don't believe in doing armchair diagnosis from a distance, so I won't posit that a mental health assessment. But he does come off as somewhat unbalanced or out of touch with parts of reality. Whether that is accurate or not, I suspect that it will play very poorly with voters when they are subjected to a frequent diet of his statements during a Senate campaign. (Let's face it, a state auditor candidate doesn't get a lot of careful examination or a lot of public exposure - a Senate candidate will.)

On a very basic level, Tom Salmon is not going to wear well as a high profile statewide candidate.  

[ Parent ]
Thanks for info!
In adition - we discussed political views of Vermont's state Senators, and it's an info that's very difficult to find. We discussed four: Snelling, Illuzzi, Doyle and Mullin. I know that Brock is more conservative. And would be very grateful for information about fresnmen: Benning, Flory and Westman)))

P.S. I don't ask for info about Vermont House- it's too big. But being a big fan of "mavericks" in both parties will ask simply - whom you consider the most moderate (or, who knows - may be even liberal)) of Vermont's Republican housemembers and, correspondingly - most conservative of Democratic one's?..

[ Parent ]
Republican Senators
Floury and Benning are both on the very conservative end of the spectrum - on both social and economic issues they are pretty far right (at least by Vermont standards - they may not quite be tea partiers, but they are certainly very comfortable in the conservative side of the even the national Republican party.)

Rick Westman is more centrist, I'd say he is a pretty traditional moderate/ moderately conservative Vermont Republican. He was in the House for many years, and generally compiled a record that was middle of the road, voting for marriage equality, balancing business/environmental perspectives, and not being knee-jerk opposed to all government programs or taxes. In the House he focused on transportation and agriculture issues -- and it is worth noting that he was named as Chair of the Transportation Committee even when the Democrats had overwhelming margins in the House.  

--

The House is harder to single folks out - Vermont House members (of all parties) tend to be a bit idiosyncratic and can be hard to button hole on a traditional left/ right scale. A lot of issues play out on more rural/ urban/ suburban lines, or (especially on tax, education, and environmental issues) on a rich town/ poor town division, with special categories for things like ski towns, agriculture towns, and towns bordering NH (where they have particular concern about being next to a low tax state). Because a single member district has less than 4,000 residents, a lot of folks get elected who don't necessarily fall into conventional political career track or ideological categories.

That said, in the last few elections, the House Republican caucus has moved significantly further to the right on most issues. I'd say the most "mavericky" members of the caucus tend to be some of the socially moderate women - certainly Anne Donahue (who can be unpredictable on many issues), Patti Komline (former House minority leader who caught a lot of flak for being a strong supporter of marriage equality) and Heidi Scheuermann. But I wouldn't describe any of them as liberal -- there really aren't any liberal Republicans left in the House any longer.

The Democrats tend to divide between the largest component - more white collar, socially liberal, environmental types, and a smaller number of more traditional blue collar Catholic types who tend to represent either old mill towns or old (often French-Canadian) farm towns.  But there really are no longer any Democrats in the House I would consider "conservative" - it is more of a question of style and emphasis than of how they end up voting on most issues. I think there are maybe 3  or 4 anti-choice Democrats (out of caucus of nearly 100), and some of them may be more reluctant on issues relating to the environment -- but none stand out of being exactly mavericks who make a point of challenging the overall party ideology. (Part of the reason that Salmon had no home in the Vermont Democratic party was that his kind of anti-public employee, anti-spending, anti-tax ideology really didn't have many friends in the party).

[ Parent ]
Big thanks for (as i said earlier)
an info, which is very difficult to find!!!!

Well, even in "non-standard" states, like Vermont, political polarization seems to be very high, not what it was not so long ago.. Sigh)))

[ Parent ]
Hehe
Did anybody else catch the Google ad for salmon flyfishing?
VT-Sen: Auditor Tom Salmon (R) Says He's Forming Exploratory Committee | 96 comments

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