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PA-Sen: Casey Leads By Double Digits

by: Crisitunity

Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 2:03 PM EST


Municipoll for PoliticsPA (PDF) (2/21-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Bob Casey Jr. (D-inc): 50
Rick Santorum (R): 38
Undecided: 12

Bob Casey Jr. (D-inc): 51
Charlie Dent (R): 32
Undecided: 17

Bob Casey Jr. (D-inc): 48
Jim Gerlach (R): 34
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±3.8%)

Bob Casey Jr. is one of the Democrats' lesser worries for 2012, according to one more poll, this one from IVR-based-pollster Municipoll on behalf of news site PoliticsPA. The numbers are quite similar to the Quinnipiac poll a few weeks ago, with Casey sporting a 46/30 favorable here, and leading potential opponents by margins ranging from 12 to 19. (Qpac had him at 44/24 and leading Generic Republican by 10, which is consistent with G.R. usually overperforming specific names by a few points.) Bear in mind that none of these three Republicans seem likely to run... in fact, after a flurry of speculation about potential GOPers in December, I haven't heard anything in many weeks about who might step up.

If for some reason Rick Santorum gave up his long-shot presidential bid, he'd still find himself pretty unwelcome for a return to the Keystone State, with 39/44 favorables; Charlie Dent and Jim Gerlach's problem, by contrast, is name rec (they're at 12/16 and 13/14 respectively). Newly elected GOPers Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey are still enjoying their honeymoons, at 48/31 and 42/35 respectively.
Crisitunity :: PA-Sen: Casey Leads By Double Digits
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PA-Sen: Casey Leads By Double Digits | 46 comments
I actually think Casey's nearly in Safe D territory
Over at RRH, there's actually sentiment that PA-Sen is a legit toss-up, which I can't help but find wholly unfathomable. I think Casey outperforms Obama by at least 5 points, and, if Pennsylvania's Lean D for Obama (as I anticipate), you're probably looking at an instant double-digit victory for Casey. He'll ride Obama's coattails in the Philly suburbs and outperform Obama big time in the SW. Dent and Gerlach are OK, generic Rs, but they may not even bother if the polling's this bad. Santorum's dead-set on a presidential run.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Casey
Is definitely not a toss up and Casey is favored, however there is no denying that Pennsylvania is only a slightly Dem leaning swing state, proof of that is 2010 where Dems were annihilated up and down the ballot, Dems on the other hand performed nearly as well in '06 and '08, so Casey isn't vulnerable as of now but if Obama's approval falls due to any serious thing that might happen in the nect nearly 2 years, or if he makes an unforced error which happens every cycle by a candidate that was favored in polls, ex: McInnis, Allen etc., then he might be very vulnerable.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
Toomey barely won against Sestak.
I wouldn't exactly say anihalate, but then again I'm not a Republican.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Toomey
Is hard-right and Sestak was a very good candidate who had a base in the swingy Philadelphia suburbs, other PA Republicans performed much better

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
But the electorate didn't see Toomey that way
And Casey is a good candidate too. He has Obama turnout going for him in the east and his own strength in the west. Likely D.
[ Parent ]
Toomey managed to deflect the perception that he was hard-right
And really, his hard-right reputation was based on inside baseball stuff like being president of the Club for Growth, that the average swing voter wouldn't have any idea about.

And as for Sestak, he wasn't a "very good" candidate. He had a strong resume, but he was terrible at managing his campaign team. Frankly, the man's a jerk who really underpaid his staff (this isn't based on those Specter commercials, but the general election). Overall, I'd still say he was a good candidate, but barely even that.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but you could say that about
Any poll or any candidate anywhere, at any time, right?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Nobody was really annihilated.
All of the incumbent House Democrats that lost were defeated by solid margins, as was the Democratic candidate for governor, but none of them were annihilated. (In contrast, someone like Chet Edwards was.) And Sestak came very close with little to be embarrassed about. It's not as blue as New York, but it's not that far off.

As for Casey, it's always possible that he could be defeated, but if he is, 2012 will be worse than 2010 was for my side. He seems like a perfectly bland, behind-the-scenes guy that has lots of appeal to both liberals and swing voters. If anything, this poll shows him under-performing with Democrats. If he gets 90 percent of Democrats and doesn't implode with Independents, which he won last time by a 44-point margin, he will win fairly easily.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
RRH
That is just silly.
[ Parent ]
Casey
maybe we can say Casey is in the Macaca Zone, a slightly lower and more genteel version of the live boy/dead girl standard of incumbent vulnerability

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
We don't have him as toss-up
We have him Lean D, and very close to Likely D. We have him at lean until the field develops.  
[ Parent ]
Two things
1) It is at lean Democratic, so us admins at RRH have a consensus that Casey has the edge.

2) Part of Casey's strength is the fact that, except Santorum, his opposition is not well defined. Dent and Gerlach both make strong candidates because they have the moderate reputation. The fact they are not doing much worse than Santorum is encouraging. Of course, it will depend how the primary plays out too. However, the race is too undefined to say Casey is totally in the clear.

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Casey's Lean D right now. You can't say at this point he's completely in the clear, especially after Democrats being decimated up and down the ballot last November.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
But Leans D implies that Casey's chances of victory are only somewhat more likely to happen than not
I don't know how having consistent double-digit leads in all polling against candidates that are probably stronger than what will actually be fielded implies anything short of "Likely D" at this point.

And I don't agree with the point about 2010, the worst year for Democrats since 1994, having any real predictive value for the contest this year, especially given that the Republicans have no one like Corbett atop the ticket this time around (or the fact that the Republican senate nominee won't be able to run against a candidate who had to waste his money in the primary).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
On your second point,
I imagine that's more of a floor than anything else. I'd imagine that any sort of person identified as a Republican would get some number like that.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Its because they did so well in 2010.
i seriously doubt the public will give the GOP any more power in 12 but obviously they need to think otherwise for the sake of winning in general. Its a morale game but eventully even they will give up on PA-Sen if Casey matains these massive leads which he most likely will.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
I would think Casey would be safe
except for Dow 6000 & 15% unemployment.  I would think he would a step or two behind Whitehouse of RI but still quite safe.  

Yet not alot of love for Casey in this poll.  One would be or likely never will be senate candidate has him under 50%.  These are the type of numbers that get Ron Johnson like candidates testing the waters.  Casey in a blue state just has not locked up this state as of yet.  

President Obama's numbers here are good too
51-44 favorable
While Casey isn't completely out of the woods...
I wouldn't rank him any worse than "Leans D" at this point. Frankly, I think it may be time to place this race in the "Likely D" category. Casey may end up doing better than Obama in PA, and at this point it's looking increasingly unlikely Obama will lose PA next year.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
Isn't it all but certain
that Casey will do better than Obama because in more rural parts of the state, his name is still golden because of his father, which will make him outperform Obama there? If he's got that going for him, plus the Obama campaign driving up turnout in the suburbs and urban areas, I don't see how he doesn't destroy his opponent.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
It looks like a likely Democratic hold to me, too
I don't really see Republicans getting a strong candidate to run when Sen. Casey is pulling numbers like these. They're not overwhelming in the way the recent poll numbers for Sens. Feinstein and Whitehouse are, but Pennsylvania is a traditional battleground state where Republicans had a pretty good day last November (that pesky Rep. Critz aside; amidst all the electoral carnage, I had a pretty good belly laugh at Critz, Rep. Owens, and now-Rep. Hanabusa all winning their races) and Casey looks solid against challengers with a profile the likes of which the actual nominee will likely struggle to come up with.

Now-Sen. Ron Johnson certainly did catch fire in Wisconsin last year, and he rode a wave to victory. But then-Sen. Feingold simply didn't boast the bipartisan appeal of Casey at any point in his career, and he was a terrible campaigner who didn't acknowledge the threat Johnson posed until much too late in the game (and even then, he pretty much refused to do what it took to pull back into the race). And 2012 will not be 2010. We're seeing signs of economic recovery, the Democrats' political fortunes appear to be improving, and the Republicans are in virtual disarray.

It's possible for Casey to lose. But I think it's quite likely he will win. And frankly, if Bob Casey, Jr., is losing in Pennsylvania, the Democratic Senate majority (and probably the Barack Obama presidency) is already history.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Unless Obama loses big
Unless Obama loses by at least 5 or 6 points in Pennsylvania--which I would put the odds of happening somewhere between slim and none--Casey's got this in the bag.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
Been a while
Sup guys? It's been some time since I posted here (actually, probably just after the election. ...I've been drinking a lot while saying the name "Speaker Boehner".)

On the ground, the senators both seem to be in pretty good shape. Casey and Toomey haven't really been blasted as much around here, and Casey looks good, while Toomey will be enjoying a bit of a honeymoon for a bit.

It's Corbett who's honeymoon is starting to die down. Corbett has to face a budget battle where he has to either raise taxes or nearly cut all state funding. Sounds as if he's leaning towards the latter, and state employees already have their sights on him

They ARE giving him the benefit of the doubt currently, however, in the rural areas that I'm from, thanks to the fact that he's not Ed Rendell.

If the district still exists after redistricting, be concerned for Critz.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

Casey Targeted?
I honestly don't see the NRSC making more than a token push here, enought to keep Casey honest (and his money in-state), but not enought to really make Casey sweat (if that were possible).

It's not just that PA is such a hard nut for the GOP to crack (and doubly so in a presidential year), but I think Washington GOPers view Casey as great ideological fit for the state and someone they like to do business with. With so many other incumbents to target I just don't see this making anyone's top tier list.

Another thing I've heard said of Casey is that he's more conservative than any Republican who could win in Pennsylvania...this all might change depending on who the GOP nominee for President is and if they think they have a shot to carry the state, but by itself I think Casey is one you keep an eye on, but certainly don't lose any sleep over.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

Besides his views on abortion, how is Casey
more conservative than any Republican that could win in the state?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Not True
Well, Toomey and Santorum are both way more conservative than Casey, so I don't know why you would say "he's more conservative than any Republican who could win in Pennsylvania." And I also think that he's also unambiguously to the left of the so-called 'social moderate/fiscal conservative' SEPA GOP bullshit-centrists of which Dent and especially Gerlach are exemplary.  

For I think a reasonably fair appraisal of Casey from his left, see our own Adam B at Dkos here.  

[ Parent ]
Also!
I almost forgot that the rules of the Internet require any post containing Santorum to contain this link.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
uh
I didn't click on that but I'm guessing it's not safe for work.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Savage just wrote this week
that the site has been dormant since 2004, but he'll "be relaunching the site in the next few weeks. Stay tuned!"
Santorum's Google tormentor reloads
So Santorum will be getting a new dose of Google-bomb love for his presidential run.
You can run but you can't hide.
[ Parent ]
Couldn't happen to a nicer guy


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Casey will be fine
He's one of the safer Democrats in the cycle.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Likely Dem for sure
... at least until an actual breathing body announces.  Likely Dem has to be a lead greater than 10% over entire group of the strongest possible candidates.

Nothing to see here kids, move along.  And all the more so as Obama is likely to win by more than last time.  No swing state here unless a total dark horse Rep apears from somewhere.

More than last time?
I guess you have him winning pretty big around the country then.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Sure, all the leading GOP candidates are far weaker than McCain
as of now.
[ Parent ]
yeah but McCain wasn't exactly strong at any point either
he sort of just became the awkward consensus candidate.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
In the primary*


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Question was about the general election
Up until six weeks before the 2008 election, Mccain was a well-above average liked politician.

None of the leading Republicans, as of now, is close to that.

[ Parent ]
Right I was just making the point that
I don't think most republicans planned on having him as the nominee. I agree this field is weaker then the 2008 one.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
I certainly can see Obama winning by more than he did last time.
That's historically what winning incumbents do.

In fact, I'll make a prediction: Obama will win the 2012 presidential election by double-digits, given the right circumstances.

http://mypolitikal.com/

[ Parent ]
Well, that I have to disagree with
I think Obama's looking more at a 5 to 7 point victory in Pennsylvania this time around. If that new Gallup # is true and his approval is below 47% there, it could be closer to Kerry/Bush.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Gallup's numbers are suspect to say the least
Unless you really believe that Obama was doing better in Mississippi than in Pennsylvania.

Plus, these are numbers taken out of 2010, there's every reason to believe that Obama's improved since then, and this new poll shows Obama's numbers in Pennsylvania at 51/44 (which, given his national standing is pretty damn good). If Obama wins nationally by any amount, he wins Pennsylvania by at least 5 points, and it'll be double-digits if he's really beating the Republicans.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I agree, if he's at 51% approval come election night, he could well repeat '08 numbers
It is, however, as others have noted, largely dependent upon the GOP nominee. I suspect the only candidates who can break 47% in PA are Romney, Daniels, Christie and MAYBE Pawlenty.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
In addition to DGM's point above
I still couldn't care less what Obama's approval is.  It only matters relative to the Republican.

If Obama had 35% approval on election day, and his opponent was Palin, he'd still win by 20+ points in Pennsylvania.  Obama at 45% approval routs the four stooges in the Electoral College, with today's mood.

Again, unless a dark horse gets the nomination, Obama wins PA by 12 points minimum.

[ Parent ]
Gerlach doesn't deserve higher favorables than Dent
Dent voted for the Zadroga Bill. Gerlach voted against it.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
GOP Targeting
The GOP may try to target Casey, however it probably will not be a top tier race for them unless Casey starts showing some more vulnerability.  
PA-Sen: Casey Leads By Double Digits | 46 comments

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