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RI-Sen: Whitehouse in Good Shape

by: Crisitunity

Wed Feb 23, 2011 at 2:40 PM EST


Public Policy Polling (2/16-22, Rhode Island voters, no trendlines):

Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 47
Scott Avedisian (R): 37
Undecided: 16

Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 54
Don Carcieri (R): 37
Undecided: 8

Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 43
Don Carcieri (R): 31
Buddy Cianci (I): 22
Undecided: 4

Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 51
Buddy Cianci (R): 35
Undecided: 14

Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 51
John Loughlin (R): 34
Undecided: 15

Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 49
John Robitaille (R): 38
Undecided: 13

Sheldon Whitehouse (D-inc): 44
John Robitaille (R): 28
Buddy Cianci (I): 24
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.2%)

I wasn't expecting Sheldon Whitehouse to be in any sort of trouble -- it is Rhode Island, after all, one of the bluest states in the union -- but PPP confirms that, even when throwing ex-Gov. Don Carcieri in the mix. In fact, what may be most interesting here is that Carcieri, maybe contrary to the Beltway CW (which doesn't seem to look any further than the fact that he's an ex-Gov.), is the least popular Republican option (down 17, and with 41/49 favorables).

Instead, Warwick mayor and noted moderate/Linc Chafee ally Scott Avedisian fares the best among all GOPers, sporting a 36/17 favorable and keeping it within 10. John Robitaille, who narrowly lost the 2010 gubernatorial race, also seems to have made a good impression on voters (40/25 approvals and down by 11), but he's made pretty clear that he'd prefer to run for Governor again in 2014 rather than for Senate. (John Loughlin is a former state Rep. who ran unsuccessfully for the RI-01 open seat, and Buddy Cianci is the disgraced, long-ago former mayor of Providence, who, thanks to his roguish charm, seems to still have some bipartisan support.)

Avedisian hasn't ruled out a bid, but a Roll Call piece today by Steve Peoples getting various GOP possible candidates on the record has him sounding pretty iffy: "it's something that I at least want to give some thought to." The article also points out (as we did in our digest earlier today) that Cranston mayor Allen Fung, who presents a similar profile to Avedisian, just took himself out of contention, while state GOP chair Giovanni Cicione is downplaying any previous interest and talking up Avedisian and Carcieri instead. The article finally also mentions former Hasbro CEO Alan Hassenfeld, although from what I'd heard he'd been mostly looking at an indie bid, if anything.

Finally, the real issue that seemed to get Rhode Island chosen as this week's poll subject is gay marriage, which is currently under legislative consideration. Support overall is 50-41, a pretty impressive showing in a state, that despite its blueness, is still notably older and more Catholic than average. That's including 65% support among Dems, 73% opposition among the sample's 15% Republican portion, and 47-45 support among indies.
Crisitunity :: RI-Sen: Whitehouse in Good Shape
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RI-Sen: Whitehouse in Good Shape | 16 comments
Whitehouse will be just fine
Barring a total collapse or scandal, Whitehouse will be re-elected.  He hasn't done anything that I know of that would cause RI to vote him out.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
If anyone has seen the film 1776
Every time I hear about Rhode Islands older population, I always tend to think of the drunken Delegate from Rhode Island for some reason.  It's a pretty good film/musical.  I remember it being on netflix instant view, so go check it out.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
Funny
Most intersting thing about the movie is that they filmed the Cool, Cool, Considerate Men song, but cut it after getting a request from Richard Freakin' Nixon. In order to avoid future grief, or whatever, the producers took the rare step of actually burning the film of that scene.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
1776
The musical also has one of my favorite quotes by John Adams (which actually comes from a letter he wrote years later);

"I have come to the conclusion that one useless man is called a disgrace, two become a law firm, and three of more become a Congress"

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Though Happliy That Number
Which was actually one of the best ones filmed, was added back into the movie for a dvd release.
[ Parent ]
I can't imagine
Whitehouse losing but in a 63% Obama state being under 50% is not exactly superman like numbers.  Jack Reed for has superman like numbers in RI so its maybe Whitehouse has not completely closed the deal for a lifetime seat.

I  imagine the filing deadline is 15 months away so if his numbers are this weak next June maybe a big name will jump in.  The odds favor him but Whitehouse needs to make more friends in RI.

Democrats have not come home.
PPP has the D/R/I breakdown in this poll at 41/14/45. Against Avedisian, who runs closest to the incumbent, Whitehouse only gets 75 percent of Democrats. If we bump that to 85 percent, which is what he got in 2006 and which doesn't seem unreasonable for an incumbent in a very Democratic state, but leave the other numbers the same, he gets 52.9 percent of the vote. PPP has him at ten percent of Republicans, compared to six percent in 2006, but only 37 percent of Independents, compared to 45 percent in 2006. If we change those numbers to what he earned in 2006, he gets 55.94 percent of the vote. That's hardly weak.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
RI voter
I get the feeling many people like me don't really like whitehouse.  don't forget he beat an extremely popular incumbent (Linc Chafee) who is now the governor only because Chafee was a republican (if Chafee had become an independent he probably would have run).  also Whitehouse failed to beat out myrth york for Dem gubernatorial candidate at least once.  White house is not very popular in RI, it is only the D after his name that gives him any reason to be ahead. also RI has one of the highest percentage of registered independents in the country I believe

on a Cianci note many people in R-01 still love him (because of his base in Providence wher epeople credit him with making the city a nicer place and the large Italian and catholic communities).  heck I would probably vote for him.

last comment only two states have a majority religion (or denomination). Utah-Mormonism, RI-Catholicism.  that's why RI lags behind other New England states with Abortion and Gay rights, the Bishop here has ridiculous amounts of power (he basically excommunicated Kennedy for supporting abortion rights).

male 22 Independent(moderate party of RI) RI-01

49-38 favorables are pretty good for an incumbent politician these days.
And very interesting piece of info on RI being the only state along with UT to have a majority of one religion amongst the populace.  Gets me asking a loooooot of questions, in particular Catholics turning from like 99% Democratic to majority Republican and how those trends looked in comparison to blue states and red states.  (RI is the bluest state in the nation and is also the most Catholic, that's a major disconnect.  Considering it was part of the solid Republican NE, switched to heavily Dem with the realignment, and then hasn't budged from that perch even while the Catholics fled the Democratic Party, all in under 100 years, hmmmmmm.)
[ Parent ]
My native basque country was also very catholic, and now, still it is

At least nominally, the country is still 90%+ catholic. But in my native country the catholic hierarchy lose the influence. They threat sometimes, but they are economically dependents of the public helps (money) and they can not do nothing.

If the catholic people begin to cut the money to the catholic hierarchy cause of be too much rightists, the bishops will be a lot less agressive.

[ Parent ]
Agreed on Cianci
It's not just his "roguish charm", or even that he was the first Italian mayor of Providence in the 20th century and served forever; at least when I lived there (during his second stint as mayor) he was widely perceived as being a highly successful and transformative public official even though everyone presumed that he was also on the take.
[ Parent ]
Whitehouse probably isn't very popular, no
but being a D is all he needs, especially against a conservative Republican. People in RI are sick and tired of the Republican Party going further and further to the right. Even if Robitaille were running for Senate, his views from circa 1850 (or whenever he was born) would not sell in a federal race.

Re: Cianci, yes he is popular in Providence, although I'd say lots of people on the East Side hate him. Considering that we are probably the least Italian part of the city (especially as a % of white population), our first thought about him is not "one of us" but rather "the man was in goddamn federal prison, why would you even consider voting for him?"

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
oh and as a disclaimer
I interned for Whitehouse a few years back.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I expected Avedisian
to fare the best (he is very moderate and popular), but in Presidential year even he will not be able to win. Natural for him would be run for Governor, but he will not run against Chafee, so possibilities here are limited too (until, probably, 2018). RI-02? It's unlikely to be free soon too..))) So, while he is young enough to wait - it's difficult for him to find a suitable race..
RI
Whitehouse has always been a favorite of mine along with Reed, They are lucky to have such a good Senate delegation, although I like mine a little more (Gillibrand and Schumer).

29/D/Male/NY-01
Oh come on!
What about Lugar and Coats! :p

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
RI-Sen: Whitehouse in Good Shape | 16 comments

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