I'm sure the DSCC has spoken with Bredesen

If it looks like a real opportunity, he may be more inclined to run.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 00:18:59 AM UTC

Undoubtedly the DSCC has their own polls

They always do. So it's not like they needed PPP to test this before they realized Bredesen might be a good get. If anything, I bet they're pretty snobbish about what their own polls show versus what others say.

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by: DavidNYC @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 00:44:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hell, I'm sure the DSCC would prefer Bredesen run even without polling

It'd be pretty clear that getting Bredesen in the race would instantly open up a very competitive race in Tennessee and would allow them to play offense in a defensive cycle for them.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 00:46:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Still, it's unlikely

Bredesen is 67, so it's not like he's young or anything.  While he remains very popular in Tennessee, running for the Senate is a far different proposition than running for governor.

Plus, Bredesen would be just barely to the left of Ben Nelson.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

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by: TDDVandy @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 02:37:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It would be nice

As Bredesen would be to the left of Corker and about as progressive as someone that you could reasonably get in TN. No doubt he would be a pain in the ass on a lot of issues and would probably take Ben Nelson's spot as the most conservative Dem (I don't have much faith in his shot at being re-elected and think that Manchin is to the left of both).  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

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by: Cool_Arrow @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 03:08:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Being a pain in the ass

is not necessarily the same thing as being a conservative or independent Democrat. The problem with people like Nelson or Lieberman is that they made legislating more difficult than it had to be for absolutely no worthwhile reason. I wouldn't have a problem with a conservative Democrat that voted for stuff when it was acceptable to him or her, even if his or her views made legislation less progressive than it might otherwise be (in order to pass, obviously). I doubt most other people would, either, especially if this person were to represent a red state.

Bresden doesn't have a lot of defined views, but he'd almost certainly be more liberal than Corker.  That may not be saying much, but if he's going to vote for Reid for Majority Leader and bring a Democratic view to education and perhaps the environment, then it's worth having him in the senate. Hell, I'd say it's worth having him if it gets people in Tennessee more used to voting for a Democrat.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 04:05:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly!

Remember, Republicans had more Senate seats to defend last year. They should have had a rougher year on paper, but look at what happened instead. Just because Democrats have more seats to defend next year doesn't mean it has to be a "defensive cycle" overall (especially if Obama is easily reelected).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 06:34:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Literally yelled, "Hot damn!"

Upon seeing +5%.

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by: Andrew @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 00:35:29 AM UTC

Mine were

My reactions were "Holy crap, Democrats are definitely not dead in Tennessee" as well as "Whoa, Phil Bredesen might outpoll Jesus in Tennessee."

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 05:15:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I am a little cautious about our chances here

This seems a lot like a Joe Manchin-type situation, where a moderate Democratic governor who is very popular initially looks like a strong favorite to win, but once the campaign starts and they are forced to deal more with national issues (HCR, Stimulus, other Obama policies), their standing in the polls go much down. Remember that Manchin had an overwhelming advantage over his opponents early on, but that later shrunk, and in the end if he had been running against someone like Shelley Moore Capito instead of John Raese he might have lost. Corker is definitely more of a Capito-type candidate than a Raese-type candidate, and he is a sitting senator instead of a candidate for an open seat so I think this race is still Lean R if Bredesen runs. However, if a right-winger takes out Corker, I think Bredesen would have at least even odds to win.

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 00:58:40 AM UTC

Manchin won by 11 points...

He never trailed in internal polling, according to his campaign staff.  The public polls ended up being all wrong as was the concern.

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by: LordMike @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 01:04:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

or the private polls were too optimistic

and then manchin turned it around in most (not fox/rassy) polls before winning.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 01:15:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Doubt it.

Remember, I'm now living in Nevada. I can tell you that a whole lot of public polling last cycle was pure crap, but I also have the evidence to back it up. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Manchin's campaign accessed reliable private poll data (like Reid's campaign did here) that totally contradicted the "Raese Surge!!!" meme that a number of public polls had the DC pundits believe.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 06:39:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He won by 11 against John Raese

Bob Corker is not John Raese. I think the race would have been much closer if Shelley Moore Capito had run, which I think is closer to the situation in Tennessee. Obviously if Corker gets beaten in the primary it gets easier, but if Corker survives the primary I'm not sure.

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 01:59:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think the trouble in this comparation is more

Bredesen is not Manchin (in the sense of compare the strength of the democrats in both states). The trouble here is more in the democratic side.

In the republican side we can can have a candidate like J Raese if B Corker is teabagged.

The big trouble is what some J Raese would win this race in Tennessee in 2010.

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by: abgin @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 04:05:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nobody's saying he's a slam dunk.

He could win, but he probably wouldn't win by 11 points. But is it really that absurd to think he might win by five points, particularly if the top of the ticket for the Republicans is killing them everywhere?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 04:09:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

5 points? To quote Joe Kennedy...

"I'll be damned if I'm going to pay for a landslide!"

1 vote is enough.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 16:36:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, of course.

But Bresden seems strong enough that he could win by something besides a point or two. He'll certainly outperform Obama.

If the breakdown in 2008 was 32/33/35, and Bresden gets 95 percent of Democrats, 55 percent of Independents, and 10 percent of Republicans, he wins with 52.95 of the vote in a two-man race.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 16:51:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A low single digit win is possible

These are the things you take into account. Bredesen can get crossover and at the same time, he can benefit from Presidential level turnout out in Nashville and Memphis. He'd have to do a lot of work for those crossover votes, it would be hard, but not impossible.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 04:28:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm also cautious, maybe more still

It would be not a easy goal. They are some difference between Tennessee and West Virginia. The last still have stronger democratic tradition. Bredesen would begin in a good situation, but for me weaker than Manchin.

In the positive side, surely 2012 will be not as bad as 2010.

But still more difficult still.

I would not fight for this race if Bredesen run not. If the frontrunner run not here, nothing to do, and if the frontrunner run, the prospect is still difficult.

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by: abgin @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 01:42:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I personally dont think we would win

even with Bredsen.  But the campaign committees spend first on defense before offense so getting Bredesen in means forcing the NRSC to spend a few million without us spending a dime.  

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by: Andrew @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 15:08:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I find it a little weird

that the primary poll shows Corker trailing a "more conservative challenger," but shows him winning pretty handily against a named challenger who is far more conservative than he is.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

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by: TDDVandy @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 02:39:31 AM UTC

Pretty normal, actually, I think

"Generic R" (or in this case, "Generic more conservative R") usually polls better than most politicians.

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by: DavidNYC @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 03:05:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Generic R

The people take "Generic R" like "Generic decent level R", not "Generic some dude R".

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by: abgin @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 04:09:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And even further

If you haven't heard of Blackburn, then you have no way to know if she's "more conservative" than Corker.

Blackburn for senate!

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by: DavidNYC @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 06:31:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Totally standard procedure for the near future

Except for remarkably good people, most named politicians will fair worse against "generic" opponents than named ones because the vast majority of politicians are under 50% favorables.

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by: tommypaine @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 07:29:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I thought Marsha Blackburn was a darling of the right wingers

How well known is she in TN? I don't see it in the X-tabs.

If she's a good a politico as they think, she should be able to take Corker down.

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by: tietack @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 04:19:41 AM UTC

Do they know about her support of Romney

in 2008?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 04:46:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

She's made media rounds...

But she doesn't have the high profile of Michele Bachmann and Allan West... Or at least, not yet. She still has room to grow her name recognition.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 06:43:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I love this...

When a Republican gets within even 10 points of a Dem in a blue state, you get the concern chorus here about how that Dems chances may be numbered.  You get a Democrat topping a Republican in a red state outside the margin of error and the same chorus is much the same for Democratic chances.  This is a ridiculous culture, here.

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by: MIvotee @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 10:44:41 AM UTC

It's the sting of 2010 polluting too many people's thinking......

Really, people are still affected by last year.  They're not adjusting to the new reality that the wave is over and the playing field is level.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 15:46:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

THANK YOU!

I'll fully admit that it would be tough to unseat an incumbent Republican (assuming he wins the primary, of course) in a presidential year in a state as red as Tennessee. But like you said, we usually hear nothing but doom and gloom about Democratic chances--yesterday, for instance, someone said that Whitehouse's numbers were weak when he was only leading by ten--and only good things about Republican chances. I expect them to take all of these races as seriously as possible, but a little perspective, and not such a negative attitude, is needed.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 16:29:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

To a point

But perhaps you could be a little more civil in making it, no?

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 16:31:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No

No.  I'm really getting tired of what amounts to a kind of built-in concern trolling, here.  I don't apologize for calling that out; not even for a minute.

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by: MIvotee @ Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 03:19:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who put you in charge?

---

by: conspiracy @ Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 21:21:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I really take issue with this post

SSP has never been a cheerleading site for Dems, it's rather a site where (mostly) Democratic partisans discuss the horse race numbers. Just because some of us are skeptical of Bredesen's chances does not mean we are too gloomy. I personally have said, and continue to state that while I think Bredesen has a chance, I think this race resembles the Kerry-Weld race in 1996 and I think in a presidential year, it would very tough for Dems to win a Senate race here.

On the other hand, I firmly believe Dems will win Scott Browns seat, and I'm beginning to see more of an opportunity in Indiana if Lugar does get tea-partied. I've always thought of Nevada as an opportunity even if Heller runs. And of course, I think Obama is going to win. Not worried about any of his challengers right now. I don't sense this pessimism for the most part that this site is being accused of, and I'm a little tired of this meme. I notice user b.j. commented on the above post - b.j. you were suggesting people were panicking on a New Mexico post where the vast majority of people were saying we should keep the seat even with Bingaman's retirement. I love you man, but just because I'm skeptical of your claims that we are going to win Texas because there are however many unregistered African-American and Latino voters (after a 2008 election where minority participation was at a high and there were numorous get out of the vote efforts for Democrats), does not mean I don't think Dems in general will do well next year.

I guess my point is that I think having a little skepticism about Dems chances in some races is not the same as being overly pessimistic or anti-Democrat, especially when that analysis is based on fact. DCCyclone, who is one of my favorite commentators on the site, may remember he was accused last year of being too pessimistic when he started noting Dems were likely to lose the house.

That all said, there has been one commentator recently who I'm pretty sure is a Republican and has been posting a lot. Some of his posts are good, but many of them seemed designed to be provacative and to irritate Dems on the site. I'd just say he is not in any way representative of the culture, and I don't expect him to last much longer.

Okay, tirade over.  

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by: markhanna @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 17:27:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thank you

realism for me starts with skepticism -- in a way that makes a proponent back up his assertions with facts and data.

While I almost always root for Ds to win, I believe that it's important, perhaps critical to substantiate the reasons that a specific candidate can win.

And its important to compare those arguments against the trouble that may await such candidates.

While such arguments may seem like "doom and gloom," I think it makes for a stronger D party.

It's even important to make sure that the Sheldon Whitehouses are in fact safe, by starting with whatever elements of "doom and gloom" may apply.

Otherwise, we end up supporting the Graysons, the Coakleys, and even the people who primary the Mathesons of the party.

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by: tietack @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 18:16:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not exactly.

As far as New Mexico's race is concerned, I simply said that people shouldn't panic--and most of them appeared not to--just because we had another seat to defend.

As for everything else, there is a little too much pessism here, at least when it comes to the senate. We keep hearing that Stabenow and Menendez are vulnerable, yet I can't think of a poll where they haven't led their challengers. If Michigan and New Jersey aren't as blue as Tennessee is red, they are pretty damn close, but people act as if the fact that Corker is down to Bresden is basically meaningless. At least that's the way it seems to me. Sure, it's only one poll, but it's something that's at least as valid as some of the others that show our senators supposedly being vulnerable although it's not treated as such.

Don't get me wrong: I go through periods when I feel hopeless about this stuff. There's nothing wrong, at all, with feeling one way or another about a race. But I'm definitely more in the camp that people here are a little too negative, at least when it comes to the senate.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 19:11:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

All right, fair enough

I may have misinterpreted your comments on the New Mexico thread, if so, I apologize.

As far as people being pessimistic, I still don't think we're quite in agreement. Saying Stabenow and Menendez are vulnerable is not the same as saying they're going to lose. Obviously, I don't think either one will, but I suppose they could be at least slightly vulnerable, more so than say Diana Feinstein or Dick Durbin. But still not very - if I were the DSCC, I wouldn't be looking at either Michigan or New Jersey as serious vulnerabilies.

I think of pessimism of more people saying Stabenow and Menendez are in huge trouble, or they are definitely going to lose. I don't remember a lot of that being said, but maybe I'm not remembering correctly.

I don't regard Corker being down to Breseden as meaningless, but I don't regard it as dipositive either. I'm still skeptical he will win, and I think have good reasons for feeling that way. That doesn't mean I'm part of some pessimistic culture. For the most part, I'm an optimist about 2012.  

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by: markhanna @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 19:20:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Greatest skepticism of course

Being around him running at all.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 21:48:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Marsha is my congressman,..

Marsha Blackburn Voted FOR:
Omnibus Appropriations, Special Education, Global AIDS Initiative, Job Training, Unemployment Benefits, Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations, Agriculture Appropriations, FY2004 Foreign Operations Appropriations, U.S.-Singapore Trade, U.S.-Chile Trade, Supplemental Spending for Iraq & Afghanistan, Flood Insurance Reauthorization , Prescription Drug Benefit, Child Nutrition Programs, Surface Transportation, Job Training and Worker Services, Agriculture Appropriations, Foreign Aid, Debt Limit Increase, Fiscal 2005 Omnibus Appropriations, Vocational/Technical Training, Supplemental Appropriations, UN "Reforms." Patriot Act Reauthorization, CAFTA, Katrina Hurricane-relief Appropriations, Head Start Funding, Line-item Rescission, Oman Trade Agreement, Military Tribunals, Electronic Surveillance, Head Start Funding, COPS Funding, Funding the REAL ID Act (National ID), Foreign Intelligence Surveillance, Thought Crimes "Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act, Peru Free Trade Agreement, Economic Stimulus, Farm Bill (Veto Override), Warrantless Searches, Employee Verification Program, Body Imaging Screening, Patriot Act extention.

Marsha Blackburn Voted AGAINST:
Ban on UN Contributions, eliminate Millennium Challenge Account, WTO Withdrawal, UN Dues Decrease, Defunding the NAIS, Iran Military Operations defunding Iraq Troop Withdrawal, congress authorization of Iran Military Operations, Withdrawing U.S. Soldiers from Afghanistan.

Marsha Blackburn is my Congressman.
See her "blatantly unconstitutional" votes at :
http://mickeywhite.blogspot.co...
Mickey

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by: mickeywhite @ Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 02:50:59 AM UTC

How does that relate to our discussion?

Could she take out Corker in the R primary?

BTW, such a huge a laundry list of her votes is not relevant to this site.

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by: tietack @ Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 03:51:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It doesn't relate at all.

This is just some guy out to pimp his pathetic blog.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 03:56:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

A real discussion of Blackburn

She represents CD7 in West TN, which was helpfully gerrymandered by D's in 2000 so as to connect the GOP suburbs of 3 metro areas (Memphis, Clarksville, and Nashville) and the rural areas in between. Now that the GOP controls redistricting and Blackburn's adjacent Dem congressmen are gone (John Tanner and Lincoln Davis), her district will likely get slightly less red, maybe lose one metro area, but will probably not change very much.

To politicos, she's known as a rabid conservative who infuriates liberals and who has some issues with compliance: she hires family members to file her reports, then gets hit with a bunch of FEC complaints (nothing fatal there. Just hire a pro, folks!). She's mostly unknown to GOP voters outside her district, including the heavily GOP areas of East TN (home to Corker). Given her success in a large red district, base near 3 of the 6 biggest TN cities, and strong conservative record, she could run a formidable campaign to Corker from the right.

However, she seems pretty close to GOP leadership (Wikipedia and her official bio says that she served as Deputy Whip at some point, I'm not sure when). She's relatively young (58) and turned down statewide races for the last few cycles. She's probably waiting for Alexander to retire, or some other, more establishment, route to bigger things. Taking on Corker would be a major intra-party fight and there's nothing in her record that indicates that she's itching for that.

Also, Wikipedia tells me that after initially backing Romney in 2007, she switched to Fred Thompson, which just sounds like one TN GOP helping out another. I doubt anyone cares about that now.

Finally, my favorite factoid about Blackburn is that she used to be an image consultant, and a fairly good-looking one at that: http://www.nashvillescene.com/...

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by: TNDem @ Tue Mar 01, 2011 at 19:20:54 PM UTC