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SSP Daily Digest: 2/21

by: DavidNYC

Mon Feb 21, 2011 at 8:07 AM EST


• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon says that she hasn't "made up my mind yet" but that she is "leaning in [the] direction" of another senate run. As Daniel Kelly, ED of the state Dem party rightly points out, she can swamp the GOP field in the primary with her zillions, but she'd be the same tainted goods in the general as she was last year - and, I would add, this time, she'd be running in a blue state in a presidential year. Good luck, lady!

Meanwhile, another much-lesser-known Republican, state Sen. Scott Frantz, says he won't "rule out" a senate bid, but that he has "no plans to run."

• FL-Sen: Obama alert! Barack Himself (and DSCC chair Patty Murray) will host a March 4th fundraiser for Sen. Bill Nelson in Miami Beach, with proceeds to be split between the Nelson campaign and the DSCC. I draw two things from this bit of news. First, if you're facing a competitive race and want presidential help, it's a good idea to live in a swing state. Second, it's nice to see that Nelson isn't shying away from Obama.

On the GOP side, the St. Petersburg Times has an interesting (and lengthy) profile of likely senate candidate Connie Mack. Mack is a hardcore conservative, but remember - it's not just about how you vote, it's about how you belong. And Mack has taken a few stances that put his tribal membership into some doubt, such as "supporting stem cell research, defending WikiLeaks and denouncing Arizona's tough immigration law as Gestapo-like." Still, with the possible exception of the Arizona law, these are mostly second-order concerns for teabaggers, and Mack would still probably have to be considered the favorite in any primary.

• ME-Sen: If Olympia Snowe is going to get teabagged, we finally have a potential name that's a notch of above Some Dude: wealthy real estate developer Eric Cianchette (a cousin of former Republican gubernatorial candidate Peter Cianchette) is reportedly considering the race. But the guy who originally broke the news, Dennis Bailey, says that Cianchette may actually be having second thoughts and considering another race.

• NV-Sen: Ah, the blind quotes are out to get John Ensign. "One Republican lobbyist" says he (and everyone else) is supporting Dean Heller, while "another Republican lobbyist" says he's pushing John Cornyn to have Ensign fitted for some new Ferragamo cement wingtips. On the flipside, one lobbyist with an actual name, Kenneth Kies (who is supporting Ensign), claims "Cornyn's been clear that he doesn't get involved in these things." I guess when you're a Republican lobbyist, you are either very good at believing things which aren't true or at least just saying them out loud.

• FL-Gov: Usually, when the headline is "Criminal Behaves Like Criminal," it's not really news. But when that criminal is the sitting governor of Florida, it is. Zillionaire creepster Rick Scott followed through on a campaign promise to sell one of the state's two planes. The problem is, he used the proceeds from the sale to pay off the lease on the other plane - and, says Republican state Sen. J.D. Alexander, it's up to the legislature, not the governor, to decide how to appropriate state funds. It's kind of amazing how frequently Rick Scott has already gotten on the wrong side of his fellow Republicans during his very short tenure. Actually, when I said "kind of amazing," I meant "totally predictable and expected." Florida is damn near turning into a cat fud factory.

• AZ-08: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Adam Smith are hosting a fundraiser for Rep. Gabby Giffords on March 15th in DC.

• FL-25: When Republicans vetted Rep. David Rivera, they must have used the same crew of CHUDS and mole-people who blessed Bernie Kerik's bid for homeland security chief. Now comes word that in just a few short years, Rivera funneled at least $817,000 to a consultant and "close friend," Esther Nuhfer, through an often-complicated series of arrangements that remind me of a South Florida version of BMW Direct. Ferinstance, Nuhfer's firm raised an astounding $1 million for Rivera's state senate campaign (before he switched over to the FL-25 race)... but he burned through $700K by February of last year, and at least a quarter mil of that went to Nuhfer. Also, this.

• IN-02: Jackie Walorski is now saying she'll decide whether to see a rematch against Joe Donnelly (who himself may not run again) in a "couple of weeks." She also says she has no interest in running for Senate or Secretary of State.

• NY-26: I doubt this matters much, since there won't be a primary here, but Kieran Lalor's conservative Iraq vets PAC is pushing one of their own for the GOP nomination: David Bellavia. Even though Assemblywoman Jane Corwin appears to be the frontrunner, Bellavia will be interviewed by local party leaders.

• OR-01: This is deeply, deeply disturbing. Days before the election last year, David Wu's staff confronted him and "demanded he enter a hospital for psychiatric treatment." He refused, and went on to win re-election anyway, but as you know, he faced a staff exodus earlier this year. Read the article for the full (and scary) details - excerpting it won't do it justice. Wu seriously has got to go - and has to get the help he needs. Blue Oregon has more.

• PA-10: Did someone crack out of turn? Last week, Steve Israel said he didn't want to talk up potential recruits for 2012 lest they get pre-redistricted into oblivion in 2011. Former Rep. Chris Carney seems like exactly the sort of person who would fall into that category, yet an unnamed source told Politico's Dave Catanese that Carney was just in Washington to meet with DCCC officials about a potential rematch with Tom Marino. Now the GOP will probably try to find a way to move Carney's house to the District of Guam.

• Philly Mayor: 2007 candidate and richie rich Tom Knox said he might change his mind and run in the Democratic primary once again, rather than as an independent (which is what he previously claimed he would do). He says he's waiting on the results of a poll to decide - I like the honesty! He'd face incumbent Michael Nutter in the primary if he chose that route. Also, Milton Street, bother of Nutter's two-term predecessor John Street, said he's getting in the game, too.

• Nassau Co. Exec: On the list of doomed Republicans, Nassau Co. Executive Ed Mangano ranks pretty high. He ran his super-wealthy county's finances into the ground almost immediately after his upset victory over Dem Tom Suozzi in 2009. Just a few weeks ago, the state took control of the county's finances. Now, Mangano is lashing out against unnamed enemies like sweat-drenched victim of night terrors. He's running a campaign-style ad in which he attacks "opponents." Yeah, "opponents." NWOTSOTB, of course, but he's got quite a few more years to keep digging this Death Valley-depth hole down to Dead Sea levels.

• NRSC: Like a bunch of mathletes tired of being picked last for everything in gym class, it seems that Republican senators have managed to give just about everyone who wants one some kind of title down at the No Homers NRSC clubhouse. My favorite are "low-dollar chairs" Johnny Isakson and Kelly Ayotte.
DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 2/21
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SSP Daily Digest: 2/21 | 203 comments
Regarding Milton Street,
It is worth noting that he was just released from Federal Prison (and is anyway something of a gadfly).  
Prison?
For what did he serve time?

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Tax evasion
Link.
[ Parent ]
Wow.
He doesn't actually believe he can win... does he?


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
I doubt it
But he does have a knack for self-promotion.  
[ Parent ]
He's quite insane
But in a hillarious way.  I think abck in 2007 he said he would run if he got 5000 supporters at a rally.  Abotu 10 showed up, he claimed he got 5000 and was amde fun of it in the media because media had photos/videos showing nothing close to 5000.

He was arrested for traffic violations that apparently his corrupt brother hadn't gotten around to fix for him during the campaign...but yes tax evasion got him in jail.  I'm pretty sure any state/local crime was swept under the rug.

Also, his brother is still on the board of the PHA (Philadelphia housing authority).  He appointed himself on his way out of office (chamring).  

He is one of 2 member of the board who supported the head of the PHA after it was learned that he bough a $750K house but was defaulting on the mortgage (oh the irony) as well as having had like 6 sexual harrasment lawsuits settled with taxpayer funds.

No doubt they are a charming family....

[ Parent ]
Huckabee speaks truth on 2012-Prez, tea leaf he won't run......
H/t Taegan Goddard:

Basically, Huckabee implies Obama is extremely tough to beat, and that the GOP primaries could be a bloodbath with a wounded winner.

If you're saying those things publicly, you're probably not going to run yourself.

And no surprise, my latest expectations have been that Huckabee, and Palin for that matter, won't run.  Gingrich will be the strongest of the true crazies, the others of which are Santorum and Herman Cain.  Barbour is in a class by himself as a semi-crazy.  And of the mainstreamers, Pawlenty and Romney are the ones certain to run, with Thune and Daniels up in the air.  Huntsman is the Santorum of mainstreamers:  an also-ran who won't get any traction.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Ugh, forgot link......
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Republican Nomination
I think the nomination will largely be a battle between Gingrich, Barbour, and Romney. The rest will be also-rans.

I read this article about an hour ago and it cemented Huckabee's reluctance for me. Palin's "sighs" from last week did the same thing. Thune's recent legislative activity is similar.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
It could end up that way, which would make me happy......
That's a trio of fatally-flawed wounded ducks.

As I've said before, the ones who worry me most are Pawlenty, Thune, and Daniels.  I think Obama beats them all, but they have the right profiles to give us a scare.

But Pawlenty is do-or-die in Iowa, and Thune and Daniels right now look unlikely to run.

Romney is 4th on my list of opponents to worry about, but RomneyCare plus his record of otherwise flip-flopping opportunistically and his thin record of public service are big liabilities that the top 3 don't have.

Barbour is 5th on my list, but he's also the first on the wrong side of the magic line of "elecability."  Most Americans will never accept Boss Hogg as President.

Gingrich is our dream opponent, IMO moreso than Palin.  He's got all of Palin's faults with none of her assets.  The Beltway media/GOP political notion of Gingrich as an "intellectual" is a myth, most voters correctly see him as merely a bombthrowing jackass who at best is no smarter than anyone else.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
.
I agree that Gingrich is probably the worst person that the GOP could nominate... I also think he's most likely to get the nomination than Romney. He's got the money, he's got the appearance within the party of being an intellectual (wrongly, in the eyes of Indies and Dems), and he's right (excuse the pun) on the right issues.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
I think Gingrich will surprise in the debates
Right now, he's viewed as washed-up. In the debates, I think he'll come off as the most articulate, intellectual, thoughtful presence on that stage, and he'll make Romney look dull as dishwater. I also think Gingrich could win, but I don't think he's the worst candidate for the general. I think he'll just post McCain numbers.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Agree
Thune and Pawlenty are the ones to worry about imo, but I'm still skeptical if the Tea Party and establishment actually want a credible candidate which is what Pawlenty is. His fiscal and social stances should unite both factions well if they looked at his record.

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Agreed...
Other than I think all the flaws you listed (along with Christian Fundamentalist opposition to the LDS Church) will likely conspire to cost Romney the GOP nomination.

If Pawlenty can't even win his own state (in the GOP primary!), then he probably won't bother to run.

Thune definitely likes the attention and seems to have "the look" of a top Prez candidate, but we'll see if he can actually put together a campaign that can compete against the "celebrity candidates" (Palin and Gingrich).

We'll have to see if Palin vs. Gingrich possibly allows a more "mainstream" GOP candidate to slip past the fragmented teabagger vote, or if those two draw so much teabagger attention that they suck the "oxygen" (money, media, etc.) away from everyone else.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I kinda get the feeling
That Chris Christie is gonna get dragged into it kicking and screaming.
[ Parent ]
Nope, he won't run, and the GOP is making it even worse for themselves by talking him up......
Christie isn't running, period.

If Republicans keep asking him, that just underscores how hopeless the GOP really is next year, and makes that point even louder.  That in itself hurts the eventual Republican nominee even more.

Second, no matter how much adulation Republicans give him, there's zero evidence that the broader electorate gives a crap about him.  He's a lot weaker, especially next year vs. Obama, than the GOP and Beltway media want to believe, and he'd expose himself badly.

I wouldn't be worried about Christie even if he ran.  He really has only very limited political experience, he'd likely stumble badly in a real Presidential campaign, and his big mouth isn't so endearing to most Americans.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Agreed
If his heart isn't in it, though, I could see him faltering, ala Wes Clark or Fred Thompson. He'll really need to commit to it.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
And I don't think...
He wants that commitment. If Christie does seek a national run, he will inevitably run the same risk of following in the footsteps of Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney in being forced to run to the right to win GOP primaries and caucuses across the country, thereby becoming increasingly radioactive in Blue States such as their own. If Christie really wants to run for President, then he probably has to kiss his New Jersey career goodbye. Does he really want to risk throwing all that way over a longshot Presidential bid against bona fide "Tea Party All-Stars" like Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
He should run for President
because he's a Republican Gov of NJ, his time could be up in 2013.
[ Parent ]
Daniels is almost certanly in
I know people who have been offered jobs in New Hampshire from with him, so they are staffing up.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
That's what I figured, too...
But, his wife is publicly trying to put the kibosh on it, so it still may fall apart...
[ Parent ]
Thanks, I didn't know that. But Daniels is in similar condition as Pawlenty in that...
...he almost has to win NH to have a real shot at it, the same way Pawlenty almost has to win Iowa.

Daniels is one more guy looking to catch lightning in a bottle, like Huck did in Iowa last time and McCain in NH and subsequent states.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree about Pawlenty in Iowa, but...
It looks to me like Romney might well prove unbeatable in New Hampshire. That is, unless the health care issue is so explosive and damaging that moderate Republicans see blood in the water and quickly bolt to another candidate. I think Daniels could be one of those alternatives, though I suspect he can totally contest Iowa, esp. if Romney falters and the religious right splinters-off. Giuliani's another possible alternative, though he may not run.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Romney is going to run a bad campaign
There I have said it. He has the flaw of every self-funding candidate of the inability to make decisions. As a consequence, his campaign lacks any sort of feedback mechanism or accountability.

Romney further more has the bane of any job applicant. He can not write cover letters about himself. This is not a unique problem, many have it, but it creates the ironic situation that more he tries to talk about himself and the better the things he has to convey, the more fake and awkward he sounds. This was seen in his very generic advertising last time that did not feature him or his biography, and the inability to make coherent attack ads.

His staff is living in 2004 if that. His NH campaign Manager, Jim Merrill, has lost every campaign he has fought. Bush 2000(Primary), Bush 2004, Romney 2008, Ovide Lamontagne 2010. Yet he is going to be heading up the effort again.

Romney may win the primaries out of sheer inertia. But he is the GOP John Kerry, and will meet the same fate in the general if he does.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Romney = Kerry
That nails it IMO. Excites nobody, the uncanny ability to twist himself into a pretzel and running purely on an "electability" platform to oppose the other guy.
[ Parent ]
interesting
The impression I have of Romney is that he's similar to Bush the elder in the sense that he enjoys governing but really, really hates campaigning. So he just says what he thinks will get the campaign wrapped up as quickly as possible so he can get on with the business of governing, and as a result people see him as fake.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
He says what people want to hear
In order for him to win.
[ Parent ]
Even "enjoys governing" is not something I'd grant him quickly with his thin resume......
He was a one-term Governor, and didn't even care to run for reelection--not the behavior of someone who enjoys governing.  Maybe he didn't run again because his job approvals were so poor toward the end of his term, but that just raises the point that MA voters didn't enjoy him governing, in which case he, too, probably didn't enjoy it much.

I suppose you could cast the characterization more broadly as in "he enjoys being in the charge," with the Olympics in Utah and Bain Capital as examples, but "enjoying being in charge" applies equally to everyone running for President.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
That would be Daniels
Romney likes the campaigning more than the governing, imo.  
[ Parent ]
Romney is more vulnerable than you think......
Romney is no stronger in NH this time than last time.  He was the runaway frontrunner in NH last time even after Thanksgiving 2007.  McCain still had very little signs of life.

There's no McCain this time with a past success in NH to reconstruct, but that's offset by RomneyCare and Romney's own otherwise fundamental weakness that 2008 exposed.

Romney's first and worst fear has to be Pawlenty or Daniels or Thune (if he runs) winning Iowa.  Those are the "establishment" figures who have the same establishment appeal as him.  If one of them wins Iowa, then that guy has a real shot in NH.

And Romney's second fear has to be that another establishment candidate either loses-but-beats-expectations in Iowa, or largely skips it like McCain, and then is able to surpass Romney in NH.

If the new calendar holds and there's no voting until February next year, then the key polling will be post-Christmas.  That's when serious voter decisionmaking will happen.  If things move up to January, then the numbers will move after Thanksigiving like last time.

But RomneyCare is huge, I think likely fatal, unless for some reason another establishment candidate just never gets any traction.

Even in a 3-way with Barbour and Gingrich, I can easily see Barbour taking away a big slice of Romney's establishment support, as well as a decent slice of the hard right Gingrich support.

IMO the only way Romney actually becomes the nominee is if the Republican rank-and-file outright surrender on ObamaCare, and I don't see that happening until Obama is reelected.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I find stuff like this hard to believe.
Why don't we hear more about it if that's the case? Of course, why would you lie? It's not as if what you are saying is unbelievable.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
It is second hand
But from a second-hand source I trust.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Why is Barbour semi-crazy?
I don't doubt that he's probably very far to the right on a lot of issues and has a weird, awful history with segregationist organizations, but is he fundamentally unsound like Bachmann or Palin?

I basically agree with everything else you said. I'm not sure what to think about Thune or Daniels, but I imagine both are similar to Pawlenty in that they present a pretty good opportunity for us to define them before they define themselves. Romney's kind of like that, but it's more about defining him as a shameless panderer, or rather reinforcing that image.

What I am most unsure about, however, is where this relatively unknown person is supposed to come from. We keep hearing that someone that isn't being discussed right now could end up the nominee. It's almost certainly not a laughable loser like Santorum or a novice like Cain, but what about Alabama Governor Bob Riley? I guess Rick Perry could also make the jump, despite many denials. The thing is, unless you look at people like Christie or someone really new, like Scott Walker*, there's really very few people who could both win a primary and not be blown out of the water in a general.

*If this union busting bullshit succeeds, I can all but guarantee he'll enjoy seeing his name tossed around for the presidential nomination. It probably won't happen, but perhaps it's enough to launch him to the top of the vice presidential short list.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
The racial stuff itself is semi-crazy......
No it's in the same league as Gingrich calling Sotomayor a racist or saying Obama has a "Kenyan anti-colonial mentality," and it's not in the same league as Palin every time she opens her mouth.

So I put "semi" as a qualifier.

But it's still plenty bad to defend the local white citizens' council of his youth or to refuse to speak out against commeration of a founder of the Klan.  Thing is, people are somewhat desensitized to it when a white Southerner talks like this simply because it's expected; they are more willing to call "crazy" on someone outside the South like Michele Bachmann or Steve King talking like this.  But most voters will hold Barbour to the same standard as anyone else in a Presidential election, so he gets no pass.  This is all to say yes, Barbour is "fundamentally unsound" on race.  And part of being "unsound" is having zero self-awareness, which Barbour has, since he's a creature of his environment and clueless to how people outside his circle of wingnuts sees the world.

And you're right that there's no one "new" for the GOP to nominate.  That's one reason I'm increasingly confident of Obama's reelection, that we know all the names out there who might run and no one is imposing.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Interesting FP diary on Daniels at RRH
http://www.redracinghorses.com...

While he's a favorite over there, I think they've (unintentionally) listed four reasons why Daniels can't win the R nomination in '12.  

[ Parent ]
Don't discount Huntsman
I think he could stay in longer than many would think and who knows what could happen if he's still left against 2 hard right wingers as the primaries move to "normal" states.

I think eh stays in for 2 reasons being (1) that dude seriously doesn't have to work ever in his life so why not stay in and see if he can outlast people and (2) if he truly is runnign fro 2016 staying in longer could help him show strength in the later states.  Huntsman could very well win some northeast and mid-atlantic states if his competitioon were say Barbour and Gingrich and maybe even Pawlenty.

[ Parent ]
Huntsman coudl definatley squeak through...
Pretend you are a GOP primary voter for a minute.  You're at the ballot box, and you are looking at the list of total losers you can pick from.  You're heart sinks at the pathetic list of yahoos on the ballot Then, you see Huntsman's name, who may not share your values so much, but he has the aura and qualities of a real winner.  You really want to win badly, and there's a guy who can offer real, inspiring hope for victory ripe for the picking.

As Patton once said, "America loves a winner and hates a loser."  Huntsman is perceived to be a real winner, and the other guys are all losers.

When it comes to crunch time, who are you going to pick?

Huntsman has a legitimate shot at the nomination if the cards fall the right way.

[ Parent ]
The failure in your analysis is where you say...
...Huntsman has "the aura and qualities of a real winner."

No he doesn't.  He's on the "pathetic list of yahoos."

There have been 2 polls in Utah testing Huntsman vs. Romney for the GOP Prez nomination there, and Romney crushes him badly in both polls.  This is the state where Huntsman has 100% name recognition with high favorables, and he had high job approvals as Governor.

There's nothing about Huntsman that makes him stand out in a good way to me or to average voters in comparison to the likes of Pawlenty or Thune or Daniels.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I don't see Huntsman being a real factor at all
I know he's angling for the VP slot, but that's probably useless if you're poised to completely bomb in the primary process. Okay, Biden flopped, too, but Biden had a bazillion more credentials and reasons to put him on the ticket than Huntsman will ever have. I mean, where does this guy expect to win? Iowa? Ha! New Hampshire? Not unless Romney decides not to run. South Carolina?! (***laughs so hard, stomach explodes***)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I guess the China gig
Gives him some foreign policy cred which is missing in the rest of the field.
[ Parent ]
That only hurts him......
The China gig is what ties him to Obama.  So he likely can't and won't even talk about it.

And voters first don't care about foreign policy in almost any election and certainly not this one, and second aren't likely to give so much weight to the China gig in the first place as a mark of foreign policy expertise.  Being an Ambassador to China for a couple years doesn't scream of superior experience.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I meant more in the sense
If he his really running for VP.
[ Parent ]
Could hurt him even there, if...
...teabaggers prove powerful enough to demand that much deference.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Maybe
Sure the proto-(pre-)tea party contingent was strong enough in '08 to keep Lieberman off the ticket.

But Huntsman is no Lieberman, aka, Huntsman is a real R and I'm pretty sure will stay that way.

OTOH, while Lieberman is a traitorous D, he's still a D.

And in '12, Rs will make compromises, at least relative to Tea party ideals.

Otherwise, President Obama will have nothing to worry about -- and I suspect that would be even less acceptable to the Tea party contingent.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Once one of them has the nomination it would be a good way to differentiate themselves from the Tea Party. In the same way Romney would need a real bona fide conservative.
[ Parent ]
Agree that Huntsman no Lieberman, not even close, but the goalposts have moved...
...in the GOP just in the past couple years to a place I doubt any of us imagined possible a short time ago.

Christine O'Donnell over Mike Castle?  In Delaware?  Really?

Thing is, I don't think the GOP rank-and-file recognize themselves as having made any mistakes.  They look back on the 2010 cycle as a good election, period, and conclude in the big picture that purity trolling is no obstacle to winning in November.  So outrage over Huntsman as the running mate could materialize and become overwhelming more easily than one might think.

I suspect it will take Obama's reelection for the GOP masses to come down to earth.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Not if John Bolton runs


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I shall rephrase
Gives him some foreign policy cred which is missing in the rest of the serious field.
[ Parent ]
Well, that's if you think Huntsman is a "serious" candidate
I'd peg the guy as a joke, albeit a moderate and sane joke, but that's just me.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
China
Don't the nutjobs really, really hate China? His China job could hurt him, and being governor of Utah isn't exactly a plus in Iowa or South Carolina either.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
Huntsman
To me he stands out, but in a way that makes him a much harder sell in the primary. He's the one overt moderate who's been arguing that the party needs to go in a completely different direction by moving to the center. At least rhetorically he's well to the left of Daniels, who would otherwise be on the left end of the group.

I would not lump Thune in with Daniels. I think Daniels would have considerable appeal to independents, as he's spoken out against culture-war politics and shown some flexibility on taxes and other issues, and gotten generally high marks for the job he's done in Indiana. In contrast I think Thune's appeal is that he doesn't throw up any red flags for any major faction of his own party. He's a perfectly orthodox conservative on economic, social, and foreign issues, doesn't say anything outrageous, and comes across well enough on tv. I don't see any crossover appeal, though. I think he's the Republican equivalent of Walter Mondale. As for Pawlenty, he's sort of a poor man's Daniels, and he's already pandering to the right on cultural issues.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I think Thune '12 would be akin to Biden/Dodd '08
That is, an accomplished, establishment candidate who simply fails to excite the base. He might gain some traction in Iowa, but that's about it. FWIW, though, I don't think Thune is running.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Big difference: no juggernauts akin to Obama or Hillary in GOP field next year......
The Biden/Dodd analogy would be apt but for the fact that there were two 800-lb. gorillas last time, but the Republicans don't have that this time.

How would Biden or Dodd have done had Hillary and Obama both taken a pass?  Both would have looked a lot better, and indeed I wouldn't have been shocked to have seen Biden in particular win the nomination.

Thune is much less a longshot, and indeed is in the same boat as anyone else as yet one more potentially serious candidate looking to catch lightning in a bottle.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
If he can't raise money or get activists' support, he has no reason to stay in......
No one stays in who can't raise money or get draw in activists.  You gotta do one of the two, or your own morale crumbles, and you drop out.

And you don't show any strength at all in later states if you don't show strength in early states.  That's a problem for Huntsman.

The only thing Huntsman has going for him is the possibility in such a wide-open field that someone will catch lightning in a bottle in Iowa or New Hampshire for no particular reason.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Hasn't he been dropping...
These clues for some time? First Huck renews his contract with Faux News, then he defends Michelle Obama's health initiatives, and now this? He's definitely NOT sounding like someone eager to run for President again, especially in a cycle that will likely again be defined by teabagger madness in the GOP.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I'd much rathe rhave him commenting on the race anyways
Its funny how sometimes former wackjob candidates can become good political commentaters.  He's a little too one-sided now 9duh) but I wonder about down the road.

People may not like what he has to say, but I find Pat Buchanan to be one of the best out there even though there are few things I agree with him on.  

I'm hoping Huck gets off Fox at some point and becomes a better commentator in years to come.

[ Parent ]
I've been suspecting for a while now that Huck won't run
If that's the case, I think you'll find a grueling battle for the religious right among Santorum, Gingrich, Barbour, Pawlenty and perhaps even Cain in Iowa. I could see a vote-splintering that helps Romney win there, or someone like Gingrich or Pawlenty could coalesce the right and prevail.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
DKos Elections
You know... it might help prod people to move over there if the posts go online both places simultaneously (or better yet: over there first).

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
Yup
And for people worried about an invasion of the Orange Hordes, there are only 18 comments there thus far-- conversations here definitely wouldn't be drowned out.

Really, if you were a DKos user who was passionate about down-ballot elections before... you were probably already on SSP. The type of person who clicks on "Discuss" on the new DKos site will be pretty similar to the type of person we've got now. Meanwhile, the SSP front pagers get a huge new audience.

So long as everyone plays nice, I really think this will work.

[ Parent ]
.
I was extremely hesitant at first... I gave up reading DKos a few years ago because it became way to cluttered. The new platform is much, much, much sleeker. I'm a sucker for appearance (one of the reasons that I love SSP is the simplicity).

The fact that I don't have to press refresh to see new comments on the new DKos platform will probably mean you'll see much more from me there than I've posted here.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
They need to create some type of group for the updates though..
..but so far, so good.  Some comments wouldn't probably fly here, but nothing particularly egregious

Male, 19, VT-AL (home), CT-03 (college)
[ Parent ]
Yep
The fact that I don't have to press refresh to see new comments on the new DKos platform....

This is a great feature at DK! Especially for liveblogs.

[ Parent ]
Yep
I think this is pretty much exactly right:

Really, if you were a DKos user who was passionate about down-ballot elections before... you were probably already on SSP. The type of person who clicks on "Discuss" on the new DKos site will be pretty similar to the type of person we've got now. Meanwhile, the SSP front pagers get a huge new audience.

[ Parent ]
People were so woried that
the dreaded kossaks would take overrr! There is little activity over on Daily Kos Elections.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Ah.
I hope that some of the other Republicans will follow the site over to the dreaded Orange Devil (or whatever they call it). I'd rather not be completely alone.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
See user conspiracy's note in the open thread
premise: If the DK FP does not get a link to DKE (despite David N's promise of such)

then there will be no such activity -- and many of us won't float over due to sheer disinterest.

second, as conspiracy has noted, nobody has done anything to help ensure that the culture of SSP survives the transition.

Given the lack of support, we've already seen feared behavior, such as the push to primary Bill Nelson. I suggest the move towards drafting Elizabeth Warren falls in a similar category.

I await David N, Susan G, etc. doing something to fulfill these promises. For example, there was talk somewhere about some statement of SSP community standards.

David N, Susan G, etc. have said the right things about sustaining the culture of SSP post-transition, I believe they are sincere.

But they have not yet fulfilled their promises.

[ Parent ]
.
The best way to maintain the culture is to start posting over there. People learn by example.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
It doesn't work without management support
I learned in earlier years on DK, and had mostly stopped posting by '07.

While Meteor Blades does and has done yeoman work trying to maintain some standards there, his influence is limited -- and afaik, never includes maintaining a culture where Rs and moderate Ds would feel welcome to post.

[ Parent ]
Bright line being Rs & Ds......
There's no "welcoming" Rs without welcoming anti-Democratic snark.  And that will kill an ostensibly Democratic blog in its own right.  "Moderate Ds," in contrast, are not going to engage in snark against our own party.

I don't think an election blog commenting community can survive long-term with a lot of bipartisan commenting.  For a short time, yes, but partisan tension always rises eventually.  And the snark chases people away from one or both sides.  Or a nonpartisan or bipartisan elections blog can survive if the frontpage content is strong enough that a commenting community isn't needed to keep readership.  But that's very hard, and increasingly hard, to do.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Snarky R's
I don't know, people are constantly talking about Republican commenters 'not knowing their place' or something, but I haven't noticed that. My favorite commenters here probably are Republicans since they shy away from airing opinions and stick to the facts generally.
Of course, one man's snark is simply another man's differing opinion.  
[ Parent ]
Anti-Dem snark by GOPers has always been here a bit but has gotten worse in recent months......
They've been much, much worse since last summer, for the obvious reason they were about to have, then did have, a good election.  I think it's died down the past few weeks perhaps, but it got really bad in December and January.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
It is a point of contention among SSPers
some of us believe in a SSP that welcomes polite Rs, others do not.
[ Parent ]
DKE will welcome polite Rs
just don't create a user title like "KarlRoveIncarnate" and since one would be in the elections section, there is zero need to advertise ones policy preferences because we'd be debating horse race politics.  Come on over, just keep it to horse race politics instead of being a Republican and why you are pro-life.
[ Parent ]
user name*
title?  hmph
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure about that
ref http://www.swingstateproject.c...

I also thought it was pretty telling that the DK editor here didn't really say anything about the Republicans being welcome.

David N and Susan G did respond to a lot of comments in that diary. AFAIK, they said nothing about that one. (Though there were a lot of comments, so they may have just missed it, or I might have missed their response.)

[ Parent ]
How often do you see the mods post here?
Not that often meaning they don't police us very much at all.  And what makes policing ourselves so easy on the internet is that if a commenter is off-topic, we can just simply ignore their comment and not reply.  Because it'll happen and I fully expect a slightly annoying first few months at DKE with some users.  But for those commenters, I'll just scroll on by and pretend they don't exist.  Thy mouse is mightier than thy keyboard.
[ Parent ]
I'm sorry you feel this way
I feel like I've done everything possible to address your concerns, yet you somehow keep finding new ones - and new concerns which even seem to be contradictory to old ones. First it's the invasion of the Kossack hordes - but now it appears to be a lack of sufficient interest by anyone in moving over there?

I fear you simply aren't appreciating a lot of what I've said. For all intents and purposes, you can ignore DKE right now. We're just working things out over there - testing out workflow, making sure things publish properly, kicking the tires and lighting the fires, so to speak.

premise: If the DK FP does not get a link to DKE (despite David N's promise of such)

then there will be no such activity -- and many of us won't float over due to sheer disinterest.

I don't get this at all. Even though:

a) We're going to be shouting the new URL from the rooftops and

b) Lots of our content will be promoted on the DK front page

You're saying that there won't be "activity" at DK Elections? That seems literally impossible to me. Trust me, there will be activity over there. Countless swingnuts have pledged to make the transition, so at the very least, they'll have elections.dailykos.com bookmarked and ready to go one Day One.

Given the lack of support, we've already seen feared behavior, such as the push to primary Bill Nelson. I suggest the move towards drafting Elizabeth Warren falls in a similar category.

There are always going to be different viewpoints. If someone thought Bill Nelson ought to be primaried, they'd be welcome to express that here. If someone wanted to tout a Draft Warren movement, they could do that here, too. (And sheez, I'm certainly not worried about SSP culture being drowned out by a few Elizabeth Warren fans.)

For example, there was talk somewhere about some statement of SSP community standards.

Yeah, this will happen.

Anyhow, I think I don't really have much more to say to you right now. I appreciate that you think I'm sincere, but as I say, I'm getting confused by your concerns, and they don't seem to be broadly shared, so I'm just going to have to ask you to sit tight and make the best of it. Thanks.

[ Parent ]
Rooting for your success
and fear of how you're getting there

is by definition, an internal contradiction.

If my concerns are not widely shared, then you have little to worry about.

[ Parent ]
You just clearly don't get this that this a lefty blog
SSP moving to DK makes so much sense to me and that's because I've never seen this place as bi-partisan, unlike entirely too many of you.  Comment, have fun, but there is a heavy bias and moving to a larger audience with keeping the same intelligent focus makes a lot of sense to me.

I'm not saying the move will be perfect, as there will certainly be problems when the place is first advertised.  But I've seen this place be a hell hole of policy debate and also a hell hole of liberal-to-moderate-to-conservative bickering that got annoying.  Right now this place is pretty chill, but that is simply a "create account" click away.

[ Parent ]
I think we've had this discussion
[ Parent ]
I think the problem is...
People here at SSP are generally savvy and pragmatic enough that they wouldn't suggest Sen. Bill Nelson should be primaried, or that Alan Grayson could be elected to the Senate from a center-right state. Sure, they can say whatever they want, but there's a collective IQ here that I honestly think will drop off as a result of the move.

It's nice, IMO, that just about everyone here is a whiz at politics, sees through pretty clear eyes, and has a good sense of the climate (sometimes down to very minute details, like the mood in a certain county or state legislative district). I haven't observed the same on the whole of commenters at Daily Kos. That's not to say they're all slavering idiots or that they'll descend like locusts and blot out the sun of wisdom entirely, but I think a lot of people have already started posting at DKE who are a bit more...starry-eyed, let's say, than the people here. Less reasonable. Less to contribute. I learn lots from almost everyone who posts here; I'm not sure what people who think Florida Democrats should primary Nelson and replace him with Grayson will bring to the table other than being the electoral-analysis blogosphere equivalent of Code Pink.

I'm only worried about a lack of activity in that if the generally insightful, intelligent, and reasonable climate of SSP/DKE cracks and crumbles, there could be a domino effect, sort of a gradual exodus, of respected posters here who get sick of putting up with the Graysonites and the eager beavers whose knowledge of politics extends to "Republicans suck!" and "Palin is an idiot!" In some ways, I'd actually be happier if Kos doesn't promote DKE that much and the community remains largely insular and self-selecting...but I don't really expect that to happen.

I guess it just boils down to: I like SSP the way it is, and I don't see it remaining that way for much longer. I hope I'm wrong about that, but at the same time, I get the sense it's not meant to stay the same - that you and Markos Moulitsas don't intend to keep it the way it is, that you have a different vision for the site's future (or you wouldn't be moving it over to Kos, no?) - and that's fine, it's your baby, but I've got a nasty premonition I'm going to be very homesick for the site as it is today.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Make the world you want to see
Sure it makes my skin sad to see some of the simplistic comments on DKE, but if you want to see the more thoughtful tone there that there is here, people need to post and set the tone.  Running away just means that you lose something (SSP) that enrichs your life and you care about.

Sure, there is a point for everyone where the level of stupidity is more than they can stand, but there is certainly no point to surrender before the struggle begins.

Also, this site is gone, period.  Life moves on.  Is it better to contribute to the site most like SSP in the world (DKE) or go sit in a dark room somewhere alone?

[ Parent ]
I think your view
Is both too rosy and too negative at the same time! Yep, people here generally are pretty savvy. But as I noted elsewhere, we played host to quite a few Brunner and Novick supporters (ferinstance) in the past. I think a lot of people were very dismissive of those candidacies, and perhaps your "model swingnut" would be as well, but we managed those interactions pretty well, despite some tension. But my point simply is that SSPers certainly don't think all alike, and some of us do support candidates or causes that a majority might think a foolish waste of time.

At the same time, I hope you'll stick around when we transition over to DK and find it in your heart to patiently explain to people who say things like "Alan Grayson should primary Bill Nelson" why you think that's a bad idea. Not condescendingly, not irritably, not "YOU MORAN!!!#!!", but with grace and good humor. I know people like yourself and SSPers in general are capable of doing that. People can be taught - and if the Code Pink types see they aren't getting much of an audience for their views, they are likely to move on to greener (pinker?) pastures. You can help make sure that happens.

One final thought: I have been blogging for an exceptionally long time. I don't know if there's anyone who is active on SSP who has been with me since the beginning, but I've been at this since 2003. And you know what I knew back then? Jack shit! In fact, I started this site as a project (hence the "Project" in the name) to educate myself about the battleground states of the 2004 election. I really had no idea what they were (except for the infamous Florida, of course). I was pretty much entirely self-taught, and I made plenty of mistakes. If you went trolling through the deep, deep archives, I bet you could dredge up a lot of embarrassing material. I supported Ginny Schrader over the DCCC's attempts to find a strong candidate, I thought John Kerry would win Florida, I once wrote a post where I said Tim Holden sat in the reddest district held by a Democrat because I hadn't even heard of PVIs.

In short, I've been wrong on many occasions. I bet if the 2011 editions of Sao (or conspiracy or tietack or some others) encountered older versions of DavidNYC, they might think, "What an idiot!" But - and this is why I think so highly of this community - I'd expect all of you to take that unsophisticated DavidNYC by the hand and educate him. Maybe not everyone is able to learn from their mistakes as I did; maybe not everyone wants to. Sometimes your patience won't be rewarded; sometimes you'll want to just throw up your hands. But everyone here is more than capable of acting as mentors to the less-knowledgeable, and as a community acting together, we definitely can - and we will be successful.

[ Parent ]
I think I've been consistent
All along in saying I will give the move every chance. Indeed, every comment I have made on the subject was with the sole intention of trying to help make the transition as smooth as possible. Make no mistake, I want it to work too.
[ Parent ]
And to be clear
I sometimes think the older (younger?) version of me was a moran, too! I definitely have cringed on reading some of my older posts, which is why I don't do it a lot. :)
[ Parent ]
Very good post
You've won me over. I still can't say I'm happy about the move - although you deserve to be getting paid for this, and I'm glad for that change - but I'll come along for the ride and I'll give the new site a whirl.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
excellent comment
I thought I was the only one who started out ignorant here.

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Rooting for your success
Send me the link and I'll be the 1st to comment there

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
This is intentional
There is little activity over on Daily Kos Elections.

As I've said elsewhere, it's just a very soft launch - consider it our "beta." We're just trying to get things figure out there to help smooth the transition. This is still our home, right here, until we announce otherwise. (And yes, there will be advance warning.)

[ Parent ]
Not before the transition is complete
I'm waiting to see David N, etc. follow through on his promises as stated in the weekend thread.
[ Parent ]
We're not trying to prod people to move over there yet
We're not ready to do that. We're in a very soft launch over there, to get stuff figured out for when we do move the whole shebang over.
[ Parent ]
Names
I really wish this site wasn't moving there.  I have a different name there, but would rather keep commenting on elections using this one.  I'll probably sign up with two names now, and switch back and forth which I think is actually against the rules, but so be it.  We'll see what happens.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
IA redistricting fun
The Des Moines Register has a giant list of possible Iowa maps.

For their best plan, the partisan compositions work out like this:

IA-1: Obama 58.3%, McCain 40.6%
IA-2: Obama 57.8%, McCain 41.0%
IA-3: Obama 54.5%, McCain 44.1%
IA-4: Obama 45.8%, McCain 53.0%

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)

OR-01: Wu on the FP of the Sunday Oregonian
http://www.oregonlive.com/poli...

The article was almost a push to give Wu another chance --

Rep. Mitch Greenlick, D-Portland, who directed health research for Kaiser Permanente before his retirement, said he doesn't think that Wu's need for mental health treatment should hinder his ability to stay in politics.

"It ought to be treated as any other illness," Greenlick said, adding that he hopes that "we're beyond the era where you have to drop out of politics" if you receive treatment for mental illness.



I thought the DailyDigest today was pretty harsh
I don't know what is going on with him, but I really don't have as big a problem with him as some.  His staff left and has bad things to say, and I'm sure they're true.  However if he has a medical issue (Physical or mental) I don't see that as a reason he needs to step down.

From what I can say he is still making votes, and staying true to what his beliefs/prior voting history has been.  i haven't seen nor heard any statements of his that I find crazy about policy.  

Seems he had a rough patch, but it doesn't seem to have hindered his ability to do his job (voting) or campaigning and winning in 2010.  If OR-01 voters want to recall him, that's their prerogative.

[ Parent ]
I know both Commissioner Avakian and Suzanne Bonamici
They're personal friends, FWIW. Bonamici was Commissioner Avakian's handpicked successor to his seat in the State Senate after he resigned to become labor commissioner.

Personally, with no inside knowledge one way or the other, I expect Rep. Wu will announce he's resigning to deal with "personal matters" sometime this week. Avakian and Bonamici will probably huddle, and one will step forward to run in a special election to succeed Wu; I doubt they want to run against one another.

Avakian holds a statewide office, and he briefly mounted a campaign for secretary of state (Oregon's number two office, first in line to the governorship), but he's a very mild personality. Bonamici cuts a more commanding figure, with a more typically political profile; she gives off a stronger vibe of ambition, but she hasn't been in the game as long as Avakian, and I think she'll defer if he wants the seat and there's an opening. Neither has been willing to discuss succession, but neither has ruled out a bid if Wu leaves Congress, either.

My personal preference is probably for Bonamici, because I like a politician who says what's on her mind and I think Oregon should have a woman in its congressional delegation, but as I said, I'm acquainted with both and I know they're both good people and good Democrats.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
As much as I want Wu to get the medical help he needs
This has apparently been ongoing since '07.

If Wu were to say publicly apologize and go into rehab, I think he could save his career.

If your scenario comes to pass, this bit from the linked article seems to apply:

If Wu were to resign his seat, it would be up to the governor to set a special election date to fill the vacancy. If the election were held within 80 days, the party organizations choose the nominees; if longer, a primary election would be held.

[ Parent ]
I think the public response from state legislators and party officials is telling
They don't foresee a pressing need to primary Rep. Wu in 2012, a scenario the Republican concern trolls are floating. Yet they're not taking this lightly either, and they've made it clear they're discussing their options with potential candidates like Commissioner Avakian.

I'd say there's an expectation Wu will either shape up or ship out. And the fact that a special election is something that appears to be on the table suggests to me that Rep. Pelosi, Gov. Kitzhaber, and/or the Oregon Democratic Party have been making some phone calls to Wu's office in the past few days.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
GOP Redistricting Quota
A close friend at The Heritage Foundation told me the NRCC & NRLC are circulating a state-by-state quota list for "Safe" GOP seat and swing seat targets.

I couldn't see the list, but the interesting factoid is the are using this to try to get state legislatures to shoot for a total of <220 "Safe" seats and see a max GOP seat ceiling of <250 seats.

I'll ask for some specifics when I see her again tomorrow am.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

Questions
My first question will be what they consider a "safe" seat? (Are they using PVI?).

2nd is what their targets are for. North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio & Pennsylvania? Those numbers will tell us a lot about how aggressive they are (or aren't), and what they think will happen in CA & IL

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
220 safe seats?
What are they smoking?  No party has an automatic "safe" majority nationwide.
[ Parent ]
.
They might be thinking safe through the "2010" lens. Just as Democrats could easily find 220 safe seats by only looking through the "2006/8" lens.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
CT-SEN Courtney not running!
hartford courant says Joe courtney's not running.  http://www.courant.com/news/po...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Good

[ Parent ]
The question is now whether Bysiewicz is committed to this
There's a possibility, I suppose, that the GOP primary could prove a bloodier battle than the Dem's fight. I think a lot of CT Republicans are wary of McMahon running again, but there's certainly a sentiment out there that her dollars might simply prove unbeatable. Her ceiling in the general is probably 45%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Maybe she'll run for a while, then drop out and run for an office she isn't qualified for, then quit running entirely.
It could happen.
[ Parent ]
Any Impact from Connie Mack's Wife?
Wondering what impact, if any, Mack's wife will have in a statewide race. Palm Springs voters don't have a problem with the semi-racy photos that have showed up on the net, but I'm curious about how the voters along I75 and into the panhandle will react... if at all.
Nobody will give a crap about that nonsense
They will care a little about every little moderate thing she has ever done though.
[ Parent ]
Walker and Mack
1) If Walker were to succeed in ending collective bargaining for some unions, state workers and teachers, but doesn't end it for the police and firefighters, seems like there could be a lawsuit there.  Why can some have it but not others.  This of course means that based on the outcome of the lawsuit, perhaps everyone gets to keep their collective bargaining rights, or, everyone loses it, (or possibly nothing changes either way).    Thus, the police and firefighters might think they are immune, but, they could conceivably lose out in the end.  Also, if all the others lose their bargaining rights, wouldn't Walker possible go after the police and firefighters later?  Reminds me of when England gave Hitler a pass on Poland and Czechoslovakia, and he ultimately came after England anyway.  I can't imagine Walker being the type to know when to stop.  He'll just keep on going, his ego demands it.

2) Mary Bono Mack didn't fare so well in her recent reelection.  She won by just under 10 percentage points.  There was a 3rd party candidate running, a more conservative type.  Given how well she did in 2008, in a great Democratic year, she is seen as weakened.  Depending on how the district is redrawn, it could easily be made less Republican, which might mean her demise.  Given that she is hardly around anymore anyway, that wouldn't be any great loss.  Her Democratic opponent, Steve Pougnet, the Palm Springs mayor, will probably run again, and he is getting much more aggressive in his mayoralty, which will certainly boost his chances.  (The downtown of Palm Springs has been dying for decades, and now it finally might get turned around.  It seems odd that such a tourist mecca could have this challenge, but, as a resident, it is the truth.  Other desert cities are doing much better.)

There is a potential of lawsuit...
...based on the pension aspects of the bill. I don't know the specifics, but I guess the pension balance between the different parties would not meet constitutional muster of some sort.  I've heard some lawyers are talking about it.

There are some other suits that can be tried as well, but those are bigger longshots.

[ Parent ]
Re: Walker
Though some police and firefighters may be keeping out of it, many are coming out against the bill, with the head of the Wisconsin Law Enforcement Association stating that he personally regrets supporting Walker and being exempted, while at least some firefighter locals have come out to say that they would rather take the cuts than have other public workers lose their bargaining rights. There is quite a bit of solidarity coming from that end. So, I get the feeling that they aren't missing your analogy.
[ Parent ]
IN GOP flee Lugar
http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

If he doesn't have the party establishment what hope does he have even in an open primary?

Faithless backstabbers....
You back some half-hearted candidate over arguably the most skilled and sage foreign affairs Senator since William Fulbright?!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Didn't expect this
I figured there's be a schism in the party establishment but I didn't think Mourdock would start out with this much support among the county chairs and such. Has to be sobering for Lugar's folks.

Seems possible in light of this that Pence could back Mourdock, too.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Can't believe
they'd stab Lugar in the back.  This is shitty news.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It might not be if it pushes him in the direction of bolting the party.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
You mean
he could go Indy?  Is that a rumor in the wind right now?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
We had a big discussion in the weekend Open Thread about whether it'd be possible/viable that Lugar runs as a Dem or indy
There was an article last week in the Evansville Courier and Press suggesting that there's an effort in the Indiana Dem party to coax him into a party switch...

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Excellent
That would be a great coup if it happens.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
From the perspective of Indiana Dems
I've been trying to think about it from the perspective of an Indiana Democrat. Sure, Indiana Dems might be miffed at first, but hopefully they'd realize that they'd been voting for a certifiable douchebag in Evan Bayh for years and years, and whatever Lugar's faults, he is nowhere near that awful of a human being.

Also, Bayh was also consistently among the one or two most conservative Ds in the caucus...even if Lugar took over that position, he'd still be a big friggin' upgrade, with tons of foreign policy expertise, proven deal-making skills, a monster reputation, and a kindly mein....and again, WAAAY less douchey.

Even if Brad Ellsworth could somehow win statewide in 2012 against a guy who teabagged Lugar, he's not really all that much to the left of Lugar. Lugar's also got hella seniority and would likely move left if he did switch. Plus, Lugar's old and this would probably be his last term so he'd just vote his conscience and to hell with the political ramifications to his career.

Plus, I just lurve how feisty he's gotten lately...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
On that last point
It is just human nature to tweak or get back at the people attacking you.  I expect Lugar will get more "feisty" as he gets attacked by the baggers more, and he'll do things to deliberately annoy them.  
[ Parent ]
Well said.
I suspect he would have lots room to do what he wants because, as a whole, the state party is probably more conservative than others. The purists might not be thrilled, but at the same time, if they realize he's likely a slam dunk to be reelected, thus making saving the senate that much likelier, they'd probably get over it. At least, most of them would--you can't please everyone. And while there's always a chance of a third-party candidacy, I don't see it having a big impact.

If I were a party person, I'd tell Democrats to use him to win lower level races in some way. Someone in another thread said that Lugar switching likely wins the state for Obama and moves things a couple of points in the blue direction for other Democrats. If that's the case, I imagine Democrats being fairly happy with it. He's not going to be in that seat for 30 more years, after all, and if he's little more than a placeholder that helps them, that's not a bad thing at all.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
this may
be the first time i've seen "hella" on this blog. california represent!

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
W00t! B-)


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
He should come all the way over
He his pretty tight with Obama remember. Plus there is nobody on the Democratic side of Sestak's stature or the closed primary to deal with.
[ Parent ]
He's really quite conservative
Specter always had a reputation as a RINO. Lugar? I dunno, but stranger things have happened.

His problem, as with most party switchers, is that he'd face Democrats with a lot of unpleasant votes and positions.  

[ Parent ]
Who could beat him in an open primary?
I'm not sure anybody could make enough of a contrast. He would start easing his votes to the left straight away and he already voted for Sotomayor, Kagan, START and DREAM. Quite a few Dems were and are against the latter.
[ Parent ]
I dunno
Do the Republicans also have an open primary in IN?

[ Parent ]
I believe so.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
They do
But could he get enough votes to counteract the base AND the party establishment?
[ Parent ]
He also voted for S-CHIP
He is pro-stem cell research and moderate on guns. There is much to disagree with him on but he is a real "commonsense conservative" if ever there was one. For one final term his vote for Majority Leader would be worth it IMO.

http://www.votesmart.org/npat....

[ Parent ]
Agreed.
I also think that he'd given Obama a lot of cover to go with a theme of the Republicans being just that extreme. It'd be very similar to how the Republicans used Zell Miller in 2004, except in this case it wouldn't be complete bullshit. In any number of situations, it'd make the Democrats accurately look like the big tent part, which could help them all over the country.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
You
Must realize that many people other than teabags dislike Lugar immensely, I am for one, it's not like he's Snowe from Maine which is by the way more conservative than him on many issues, he's from Indiana which is 10 points more Republican than Maine, and Lugar is just liberal, you would call it moderate, on too many issues, most in IN GOP are also conservative and it also bothers them, it's not like Mourdock is a teabag, he just won reelection with 62%.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
A bag of salted peanuts could have won 60% in a statewide, non federal race here last year
As long as it had an R next to it on the ballot.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
You must realize
that nobody else in the Senate can light a candle to Lugar when it comes to foreign affairs, Republican or Democrat.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That's a new one to me
Snowe more conservative than Lugar? On what scale? Which votes and issues?
[ Parent ]
I guess this is the same
As our Lieberman argument. He would be fine as a Dem in lots of states but not Connecticut.
[ Parent ]
But that's just not true b/c Lugar doesn't stick a finger in his own party's eye......
Lieberman routinely used the hard right's own talking points to attack Democrats on Iraq.  And he has a documented record of lying and flip-flopping on this or that issue as it suits him for whatever political or personal agenda he's pursuing at a given moment.

Lugar actually acts with far more integrity.  And when he departs from his party, he argues an issue on the merits, and argues with humility...and actually often will cast a disagreeing vote without actually saying anything at all.

Temperament matters a lot, and Lugar's is far superior to Lieberman's.

What it really comes down to is that Republicans are a smaller tent who tolerate a lot less dissent than we do.  That's simply because nationally and in most states there are simply more conservatives than liberals, I think that's still the case even after taking into account the reality that a lot of self-identified moderates are really liberals who have become scared off by the successful right-wing demonization of the word "liberal."  So we have to have a bigger tent than the GOP just to keep the electoral playing field level.  This translates to our having to tolerate Lieberman when Republicans figure, often correctly, that they can jettison someone a lot less troublesome on their side of the aisle than Lieberman is for us.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Lugar's voting record is comparable to Richard Shelby's
Lugar has a 77 lifetime rating from the ACU --
and a 14 lifetime rating from Progressive Punch.

Shelby's lifetime ACU rating is 76
his lifetime Progressive Punch rating is 12.

That seems mostly conservative to me.

[ Parent ]
but
shelby was a democrat for a decade

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Point well taken, nevertheless similar examples are available
e.g. Thad Cochran has a lifetime ACU rating of 80
and a lifetime Progressive Punch score of 10

[ Parent ]
What about Specter pre-switch?
Ben Nelson? Olympia Snowe?
[ Parent ]
Don't know how to derive Specter's pre-switch numbers
But both Nelson and Snowe have less conservative ratings than Lugar.
[ Parent ]
Sure
But by how much?
[ Parent ]
About 35 points
ref http://www.conservative.org/ra...

Snowe and (Ben) Nelson are at about 47 or 48.  

[ Parent ]
Subtraction failure
I should have said about 30.  
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the link
Interesting that Scott Brown comes in at 74.
[ Parent ]
Any way to extrapolate what the numbers have been during the 111th and 112th Congresses?
Sen. Murkowski would also provide an interesting benchmark.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Ratings
Ben Nelson 47

Snowe 48
Collins 50
Kirk 58
Murkowski 71
Brown 74
Lugar 77
Alexander 79

Specter 42, Voinovich 69, Gregg 78. Shelby at 76 is interesting since he is at 88 and 96 for the last two years suggesting he used to vote quite a bit further left than that back in the day. In the unlikely event of a Lugar switch I think you could close to guarentee a move in the other direction. Indeed that has already begun somewhat since his last two years are 71 and 68. Fascinating stuff.

[ Parent ]
county chairs
It's my understanding that local party chairs are often the most hardcore partisan activists, and I would expect that high-profile elected officials (except maybe Dan Burton) would carry more weight. Have the other statewide officials and US House members said anything yet?  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Daniels says he will vote for him

[ Parent ]
Not to my knowledge
I'd imagine that Daniels, Todd Young, and possibly Todd Rokita would be aligned with Lugar. Stutzman isn't really an establishment Republican and I could see him backing Mourdock. Larry Bucshon is from the same area as Mourdock, for what that's worth. No one cares about Dan Burton, as you implied!

For the statewides, I'm not sure. Charlie White's probably going to be locked in someone's basement where the media can't find him by the time the primary rolls around, for what that's worth.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
i loved his first quote
About feeling bad lugar would be humiliated by his support list...he didn't sound like he felt bad.
[ Parent ]
Not even a little!


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I see the likelihood of a party switch increasing sharply as of today
Sen. Lugar has served Indiana very well for a long time. He's being rewarded for his seniority and his position as a voice of reason by being thrown under the bus.

If Lugar switches parties now, no one will blame him, and I doubt Indiana Democrats will have enough of a problem with him to primary him out.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
It would probably take a big carrot to do that.
IF the rumors are true and he's mulling it over, the thing that could really help is make him a Vice Chairman on the Foreign Relations Committee and give that to him.  That way he still gets a strong voice, but doesn't have to take away Kerry's gavel (which I'm sure Kerry would oppose up and down).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
A bargaining chip for Kerry though
If he really wants to take over from Hillary!
[ Parent ]
Hey
I forgot about that. The planets are aligning!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Wait am I missing something?
Is Hillary planning on stepping down? Possible Vice-President or Presidential run?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
No
Nothing official but there are strong rumors she wouldn't continue in a second term and there was an article in the Boston Globe suggesting Kerry was lobbying for it.
[ Parent ]
Ah, I wonder
what antics will they dredge up next week on Rivera.  I can't wait!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Bob Ehrlich
Today was the ribbon-cutting ceremony for the Inter County Connector, a major highway connecting the further-out parts of Prince George's and Montgomery counties (running from Gaithersburg to Laurel). The highway was a major campaign promise of Ehrlich's in his 2002 campaign, and one of his biggest accomplishments in office. So it's no surprise that Ehrlich was at the ribbon-cutting ceremony today, his first major public appearance since losing the governor's race. One quote stood out to me here:
Greg Massoni, Ehrlich's former press secretary, said the former governor chose to attend the event because he was so instrumental in the ICC's history.

"Pretty much, he got the road done," said Massoni, who also accompanied Ehrlich at the ceremony. "It should be called the Ehrlich Highway."

The reason I bring this up is not because it is big news in itself, but because I wanted to ask people: do you see a future for Ehrlich in Maryland politics? He's only 52, so he could run again in the future. Barbara Mikulski will be 80 in 2016 when her senate seat is up again, do you think he could run for that if she retires? I doubt he has too much of a chance, but he's probably the GOP's best candidate in MD.

Male, VA-08

He may try
But doubtful he could win unless KKT also ran again.
[ Parent ]
He is the GOP's best candidate, but that's like saying Dino Rossi is WA's best
Elrlich is a competent, sane Republican, the sort who garners at least 43% in a statewide race (which, frankly, isn't that bad for a GOP-er in Maryland), but, indeed, unless the Democratic nominee is extremely flawed, he'll probably be up shit's creek.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Not really
Maryland looked like it was going to be close until late in the game last year, then Ehrlich got flattened by 15%. There's no way in hell he'd have a chance at a Senate seat.

He probably is the best Republican candidate in Maryland, but that's like being the best player on the Detroit Lions. You may do better than anyone else, but in the end you're still going to get creamed.

[ Parent ]
Lions
The Lions don't suck anymore. They gave up just 7 more points than they allowed for the whole season. Any team would be happy to have Ndamukong Suh.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/st...

Now the Panthers, on the other hand, really let their suck flag fly last year. They were 2 wins and 70 net points worse than the next worst team.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Damn!
I knew I shouldn't have tried to go for a sports analogy.
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't he
Be more likely to run again for Governor in 2014? I don't know if Maryland has term limits and if they don't he'd seemingly be a candidate to run. But even then he'd be 12 years removed from his last victorious election and in one of the best Republican cycles in history he has difficulty breaking 40%. In other words, its a fairly safe bet that his political career is ovah.
[ Parent ]
Chicago-Mayor: Danny Davis plays the race card for Braun
We need more Barack Obama's
And fewer Bobby Rush's and Danny Davis's.
[ Parent ]
To be honest
I don't get angry by this type of rethoric like a lot of other white people. Maybe because I think they've earned the right to feel a certain way or that white people have no room to say anything about their behavior.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
As I said we need more Obama's
[ Parent ]
this is
when i wish we could adhere to census numbers and eliminate davis's district

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
What
fucking garbage. Playing the race card is going to hurt Braun even more if she got into a runoff with Emanuel.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I do like the epic music.
I don't like the use of the word "infidel."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Nate is great
Update on Rasmussen
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

I love it when he calls pollsters out!

[ Parent ]
I
Hate Rasmussen since the past election, but Nate's argument here is pretty weak.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
Well you would say that wouldn't you

[ Parent ]
Of course he would, and as is typical of Republicans, he's wrong......
Nate's analysis if anything is a bit muted.  The key line is where he says Rassy's question wording is a talking point disguised as a question.  But Nate understates that point by burying it and by (unintentionally) omitting that Rassy's question wording always is a talking point disguised as a question.  That's one of Rassy's tricks of his trade.

Really an honest poll on the Wisconsin issue would be a Wisconsin statewide poll, rather than a national poll, and secondarily if a national poll then needs to test with accurate question wording the broader issue being politically litigated in several states right now, that being whether teachers or some broader category of public employees should be allowed to collectively bargain--which actually is an entirely separate issue from the right to strike.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
WAA are conservatives
And their statewide poll had people disagreeing with Walker's plan 52-43. Plus, PPP are soliciting suggestions for where to poll next and most people are saying WI. I suspect that will happen this weekend.
[ Parent ]
Yup, and even further, Marc Blumenthal agrees w/Nate on Rassy (link)......
Rassy called out yet again, right out of the gate in the headline itself (ouch!):

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen dug itself in a hole.
Not even Fox-freaking-News is commissioning them anymore.  They're instead investing in this polling outfit made of one Dem and one GOP polling group working together.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Back in October
I listened to an interview with Scott Rasmussen himself on NPR about work at his polling firm.  Sufficed to say, he sounded like some jerk who is all-talk and self-adulation.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
My favorite Rasmussen video clip...
...is from the HBO documentary "By the People: The Election of Barack Obama."

The documentary covered the 2008 election chronologically with a lot of focus on events in 2007, and one clip from 2007 showed Rasmussen on Fox Noise saying categorically that Obama wasn't going to be the Dem nominee, Hillary had it wrapped up.

Scotty is a dunce on actual politics, but a marketing genius.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yes, Minister!
Absolutely fantastic stuff. I encourage anybody that doesn't know of it to look that show up. Sir Humphrey is a legend.
[ Parent ]
It's pretty basic, actually
Leading questions are one of the easiest ways to influence polling responses.
[ Parent ]
My sense here
is that Rasmussen must not be getting the numbers he wants in Wisconsin. Usually, he's out with a Republican-friendly poll on any given situation in 24-48 hours. It's been over a week since the uprising started in Wisconsin - and yet no in-state poll from Scotty.

I bet he's finding better numbers on the national level, so he's scrapped the Wisconsin polling in favor of all-U.S.

[ Parent ]
Has
Scotty explained yet why DE-AL seemed to not exist in Rasmussen polling last year?  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
No and he never will, he allows only Fox Noise to interview him and...
...they'll never question anything he does since they're all partisan GOP players working toward common ends.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
IN-Anything: Ellsworth is out

The Evansville C&P's Eric Bradner (who has been owning Indiana political coverage lately!) has him categorically stating that he "will not be" a candidate for any office next year.

In the same article, the oft-mentioned Vi Simpson (Dem minority leader in the state senate) is quoted as "thinking about" the governor's race, along with John Gregg, whose name's been everywhere since Weinzapfel took himself out of contention. From what little I know about Gregg and Simpson, I like both of them, but the idea of a liberal v. conservative Dem primary makes me nervous.



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
Could either not run for Senate instead?

[ Parent ]
Can't answer that one
I don't know if either of them have (or have ever had) interest in a federal campaign. ndrwmls10 or the other various Hoosiers here may have a better idea of that than I do.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Vi Simpson has had her
eye on the governors race for the past decade. I think if she were to run for anything it would be the governors race. I believe she has the ability to appeal to rural voters. It would probably mean moving to the center slightly though. It would be exciting to see her move up, but I don't know how truly successful she would be.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
NY-26 special: Republicans choose Assemblywoman Jane Corwin
Tea Party Groups Angered by GOP's Choice for N.Y. Special Election
New York state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin was chosen Monday to be the GOP's representative in the special election to replace Rep. Chris Lee (R) in the Empire State's 26th district.

The nomination of the establishment favorite, while celebrated by local Republican officials Monday night, drew an ominous warning from western New York tea party activists who immediately vowed to pursue a third-party candidate.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/-...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

I'm skeptical
but if they can do this, more power to them.  They helped get us NY-23, the majority of which is territory no Congressional Dem has won since before the Civil War.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
NY-23 redux?
I hope, though it's less likely as McCain won this district, unlike NY-23.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
And
The Conservative Party backs her.  
[ Parent ]
They've had two weeks
To build a case for their candidate and rally around one. They failed. Sorry for the process, but thats the LAW. Quit complaining about the process. According to the Conservative Party, she is the 2nd most conservative state assembly member. Sorry, but, there can't be a case for a 3rd party here like there was against Scozzafava.  
[ Parent ]
Eh, this one looks Likely R to me, whether or not Corwin's beloved by the Conservative Party
For all I know, Doug Hoffman will somehow run for this, but he's approaching Harold Stassen territory at this point. In a Special election, I think Generic R begins with a floor in the mid-50s and a ceiling upwards of 2 to 1. The Democrats have a recent history of ballot line problems in this district, too. The Working Families Party endorsed Jon Powers, and, when he lost the Democratic nomination to Alice Kryzan, it was too late for the WFP to replace him on the ticket. Powers remained on the ballot and garnered 5%.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
The conservative party does love Corwin
Lets get that misunderstanding out of the way. Mike Long praised her and they rated her 2nd most conservative in the assembly. If she gets a challenge from her right, a new ballot line has to be created.  
[ Parent ]
King Co WA trying online voting -- one election
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c...
One million voters are eligible to cast ballots over the Internet from their home computers in the supervisor election that started last week and ends March 15. Registered voters in all of King County are eligible to participate, except for those in Federal Way, Enumclaw and three smaller cities.

We'll see if they can overcome previous problems

When Washington, D.C., tested an open-source electronic voting system intended for armed-forces members last year, a team of University of Michigan computer scientists hacked in and altered votes.

SSP Daily Digest: 2/21 | 203 comments

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