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NM-Sen: Bingaman Plans to Retire

by: Crisitunity

Fri Feb 18, 2011 at 12:55 PM EST


Here's a surprise, and not a welcome one... according to The Fix:

New Mexico Democratic Sen. Jeff Bingaman is expected to announce his retirement today, according to a source close to the decision, a move that further complicates his party's efforts to hold their Senate majority in 2012....

His retirement, however, creates an open seat contest that both national parties will almost certainly target. Democrats should start the race with an edge, however, given President Obama's 15-point victory margin in the state in 2008.

This comes despite some fundraising activity recently, and a strong showing in a recent PPP poll. That same poll showed Democratic Reps. Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Lujan beating several Republicans in the event of a Bingaman retirement, so Dems aren't behind the 8-ball here, but, if this rumor is true, it's one more plate Patty Murray and the DSCC will have to keep spinning.

UPDATE: Inevitably, we turn to names of potential candidates. In addition to the obvious Heinrich and Lujan, Dave Catanese also cites youngish state Auditor Hector Balderas as a possibility (Balderas issued a statement already, but just to praise Bingaman). Also for the Dems, he reports that ex-LG and 2010 gubernatorial loser Diane Denish is "fully exploring the race" (and given her gubernatorial performance, hopefully those explorations will lead nowhere), as is state USDA Director Terry Brunner. On the GOP side, Rep. Steve Pearce says he'll "take a serious look" at the race.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Dave Weigel gets some confirmation from ex-Gov. Gary Johnson (the only GOPer to outpoll Heinrich and Lujan according to PPP) that he's still sticking with the presidential race and not switching to Senate.
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NM-Sen: Bingaman Plans to Retire | 166 comments
Goddamit
this is not what we need. Well....lets get Martin Heinrich in there asap and find someone to hold his seat.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
We should be fine
If Obama is winning by 15+ there is probably no Republican that can win the Senate here...
[ Parent ]
Heinrich it is ;-)
IMO at least. He should have gone down in 2010 at least by four points and he came back and won. Best opportunity : Heinrich vs Pearce. Martin could even outperform Jeff in that duel. Ben Ray wouldn't be a good choice (nepotism and stuff, some of my friends in Santa Fe even openly call him a crook) and Denish would be DOA even before the race starts....

31, Dem - NM-03 currently in France
[ Parent ]
Big deal
No senator lasts forever and it's a cheap state for campaigning. That seat is still lean D given the weak R bench and that Obama's going to romp at the top of the ticket. I'm about as worried about this as I am Connecticut.  
Best possible timing?
The GOP bench is still thin in NM (I'd have to assume Heather Wilson is the odds on favorite for the GOP nomination) and with Obama heading the ticket it's about the best case scenario for defending this seat.

However, it's tough to get past the addition of another highly competitive Senate race to the current national landscape.


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Not the worst timing
It's not wise to take all retirements as bad news, even if they're not in solid territory. I heard some analysts pointing out that the Dems were stupid for not cleaning house and pushing more potential retirees to retire in 2006/2008 when the winds were at Dems' backs, because they wound up dealing with them in 2010 instead. Not that 2012 will neccesarily be an easy cycle, but it's unlikely to be as bad as 2010. In the case of this seat, it'll be easier to defend in a presidential year with Obama popular in NM, whereas the 2018 will be an unpredicable midterm year.
[ Parent ]
I heavily agree
And it's strange that we are suddenly comparing NM to CT.  NM is truly a completely different state than it was a decade ago.  Although we are very lucky that both Senate seats came up in Presidential years as we need that Hispanic turn-out to make NM such a heavily lean Dem state.
[ Parent ]
Perhaps Lujan.
Either way, this isn't terrible news.  It's bad news to have Bingaman retiring, but this seat is not going to be nearly as hard as ND.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Heinrich would be stronger I think
It should still be a hold but it does make the national map harder no doubt about it.
[ Parent ]
what about Heinrich's House seat

[ Parent ]
Senate seat is more important

[ Parent ]
Agreed 100%
Plus, we have NO idea how the New Mexico map will look in 2012. Plus, Lujan could easily get the nepotism tag as a legitimate line of attack.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Nepotism?
I'm clearly missing something here.
[ Parent ]
His dad is House Speaker

[ Parent ]
He is US House representative

Higher level office
[ Parent ]
NM House Speaker
[ Parent ]
I mean the son is US House Representative

What is higher level office. I see not nepotism here.
[ Parent ]
The rap on Lujan Jr
is that he has only gotten ahead in politics because of his father. When he ran for Congress, his dad twisted lots of arms to keep other candidates from running in the primary and to endorse his son. The argument is that if his father wasn't in such a powerful position, he never would have been elected to the legislature in the first place, and then would not have been in a position to run for Congress.

He also ends up being painted by some as a bit of a political lightweight, and viewed negatively as being associated with a political "machine" that has a somewhat shady reputation

It may not be "nepotism" in the purest sense of being hired by a family member, but there is some resentment of it around New Mexico.

(That said, I actually like Rep Lujan and think he's been pretty good since he was elected.)

[ Parent ]
If I remember well he was in some important position before run for the US House

Just P Lyons (R) fun for the same position after get term limited in 2010.
[ Parent ]
Heinrich slightly overperformed Lujan in PPP
vs. Pearce and Wilson but Lujan was still near 50.  His trailing Heinrich's performance was mostly a function of lower name rec among liberals.
[ Parent ]
Based on the poll yes
Other factors suggest to me Heinrich would be stronger. He would certainly blunt Wilson's performance in their swing district.
[ Parent ]
Fully agree
But still it adds an open Democratic seat in swingy (though - somewhat leaning Democratic) state, where Democrats will have to find "right" candidate. commit time, money, and so on. Republican bench in this state is rather thin, but still - it exist...
[ Parent ]
This isn't as hard of a hold as Virginia
Nor would be be as tough as Montana, sans Tester. In a presidential year, this seat should remain in Democratic hands.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

Agreed.
If the state's even as remotely Democratic as it was in 2008, and if the Republicans nominate someone who is pretty far to the right, how will this person win?

Never say never, but this shouldn't be that hard to hold, from what I can tell. My bigger concern is holding either Heinrich or Lujan's seat, although if they could survive this past year, perhaps that shouldn't be a problem, either.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Double agree
No reason to panic about this one. We should actually be more interested in who the more progressive alternative among the Dems might be.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Annoyance more than panic.
[ Parent ]
If we can't old NM-3
2012 is going to be a terrible year.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
White and Barela have high name rec and would have a good chance.
[ Parent ]
I'm not saying they are bad candidates.
I see them as top-tier recruits. However, If Democrats can't carry a D+7 district, in a state that should go to Obama by 15 points, it will be a bloodbath.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
NM-01 is D+5

[ Parent ]
He's talking about NM-03. (n/t)

[ Parent ]
But NM-01 used to be represented...
By REPUBLICAN Heather Wilson. I guess it all comes down to what sort of redistricting deal The NM Legislature makes with Gov. Martinez. Will GOPers push for a GOP friendly NM-01, or will they be happy enough with a safer NM-02?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Heinrich's seat worries me more than Lujan's
Although they both gave Obama large percentages (61% in Lujan's district, 60% in Heinrich's), the Albuquerque area seat seems a lot more swing-ey than the more heavily Latino, Native, and artsy (Taos and Santa Fe) territory that Lujan represents.

Will be interesting to see who lines up for the race - the Democratic bench is deep, and I wouldn't assume that it is just the 2 members of Congress likely to run. For example,

I'd love to see State Auditor Hector Balderas take a look at running - he is a young guy who has been elected statewide twice, is highly regarded and as far as I known hasn't been touched by the kind of scandal that has tinged some other NM state Democrats.

In a state with the Latino population the size of NM (a factor in why Republicans were able to take the governorship with Susanna Martinez last year), a strong Latino candidate might fare well in the primary or general. Republicans elected 3 Latino candidates statewide in 2010 (Governor, Lt Governor and Secretary of State) and they may decide that nominating one of them for Senate would be a shrewd move - although personally I'd look forward to seeing another Pearce/Wilson showdown in the Republican primary, or maybe Domenici Jr will jump in after his disaster running for Governor last year.


[ Parent ]
As it should (re: the title of your comment).
Afterall, prior to 2009, Heinrich's seat was represented by a Republican while Lujan's had a Democratic representative.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I think New Mexico is the right place for send a latino to the senate

The retirement of J Bingaman is the worst new of the cycle until now since the point of the recruitment.

Despite I like M Heinrich, New Mexico seems the right place for send a latino to the US Senate.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Let's keep both House seats safe and nominate Hector Balderas

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
That appears to be what could happen
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It's not clear martinez won because of Hispanics.
No exit polling was done on this race, so it's impossible to say for sure, but it would be quite surprising if she did any better than Brian Sandoval.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
She lost that group
61-38.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
How do you know that?
As far as I know, no exit polls were done in New Mexico in 2010. Are you looking at pre-election polls?

A Republican candidate doesn't have to win the Latino vote, but if they are able to take a big chunk of it (say 40%) it makes it a lot easier for them to win, because they are usually running a margin among white Anglos that is too big for the Democrat to make up unless they are getting 65% of more of the Latino vote.    

[ Parent ]
But is that more a function of
their appeal to Hispanics or just their superiority as a candidate in general?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I think that helps to Susana Martinez

D Denish was not the candidate what the people want, and they elect the other option. Only that. The people want a hispanic governor (having two not-hispanic senators)? Maybe. I would tell yes.

If we look to the house races where hispanic politicians get involved, we have the next results:

NM-01 D+5
M Heinrich (D) 51.8% J Barela (R) 48.2%

NM-03 D+7
B Lujan (D) 57.0% T Mullins (R) 43.0%

In both races the hispanic candidate appears favored.

Despite I like M Heinrich, many people like him, and the last PPP poll shows him leading, I think he can be vulnerable, increasingly vulnerable with the years, against a latino challenger, like S Martinez. If the democrats give not the step of find latino candidates for the highest level elections in New Mexico, the republicans will do it.

[ Parent ]
I think that is selling Hispanic voters a little short.
It's one thing if the Republicans win them over on the issues, but it's quite another just to put up a Hispanic candidate and expect them to come.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Rory Reid won Hispanics 65-33
Heinrich would do just fine.
[ Parent ]
There was
an exit poll done by NCLR, I believe.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Question
What Democrat would be the most worst to nominate but also appear viable in New Mexico?
Denish
By far.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Not so sure
I thought much of her loss was due to Martinez's strength and the link to Richardson? I would think in a federal race it would be easier to rehabilitate her image. Would still go for Heinrich though.
[ Parent ]
I am firmly in the Heinrich camp
Lujan scares me a little bit, in the sense that Republicans could attach him (through his father) to the failings of the government at the state level. Although with Udall being the other senator, it doesn't seem like political dynasties are a problem in New Mexico.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
That's how it always seemed to me
She seemed a shoe-in for Gov., no GOP candidate in sight, and then all of sudden the climate changed and here came a county attorney who knew her shit and lit a fire under people's butt.  We could put her in the same category as Feingold.  I'd be fine with Denish, Heinrich clearly would be fantaastic.

And I definitely remember some ad from Denish that attacked Martinez but then was used against her and made Martinez look amazing.  Help anyone for what I'm thinking of?

[ Parent ]
I remember it
A woman who appeared in a Denish ad was actually the ex-husband of a man Martinez convicted, and Martinez used that as the response to her ad. Here's the ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
[ Parent ]
Bill Richardson
He might have enough support left with Dem primary voters to get the nomination, but he's easily be the most vulnerable general election candidate.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Martin Chavez

[ Parent ]
End of sub-thread
No other name comes close
[ Parent ]
Can I be the Tony Robbins of SSP for a moment?
Let's all take a few moments to scream, increase our breathing heavily, sigh, and then relax. There, feel better?

I have awful thoughts about these things as much as everyone else, but there's no reason to panic just yet. It seems like we have two good candidates currently in the House, and if for some reason they can't do it, we have plenty of state legislators and mayors that could fill the spot. We have demographic trends working in our favor. We have a party that could easily nominate someone that won't get above 43 percent no matter how hard he or she tries. And we have the best fund raiser our party has ever seen who hasn't come close to hitting his limit that will actively contest the state, where, of course, he won by 15 points the last time.

It's annoying to have to worry about what looks like a 95-percent chance race turning into something less, but we have a lot working in our favor. Rather than collectively losing our shit, let's work on finding potential candidates for the seats in North Dakota, Indiana, and Arizona, among others.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

I don't think panic is the right word at all
It probably means more for other seats than it actually does for the NM seat in particular.
[ Parent ]
In what sense?
Just less money to spend in Virginia and Ohio?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Mainly
General focus too.
[ Parent ]
I still think its a 95 percent hold
I don't see anyone panicking on this thread. Pretty much everyone thinks we can hold it.  
[ Parent ]
Fair enough. I guess I was just expecting the worst.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
The only open seat so far I think worth panicking about is North Dakota
Now that one will be a tough hold.  
[ Parent ]
Surprised no news there
On either side.
[ Parent ]
Lean D perhaps, but 95%? I'll give you those odds
If the election were held tomorrow (together with the Presidential election), I might be inclined to agree (simply based on the polling). But an open seat in a D+2 state with the uncertainty of national mood and a full campaign? No way.
[ Parent ]
Most Viable GOP Nominee
Seems that Heather Wilson is going to be the first name mentioned, but I wonder who might be the most viable GOP nominee. I don't think Pearce is better positioned than Wilson, but the LG, John Sanchez might actually be the strongest nominee. My thought is he's got;

1. Hispanic surname
2. Connection to the (thus far) very popular Susanna Martinez
3. Local elected official background, St. Rep legacy could be advantageous in getting the campaign focused on State issues where GOPers are more vialble than on National issues.
4. Electoral Track record, in 2000 he beat the State Speaker of the House (no small feat anywhere)
5. Deep New Mexico roots

Not sure how having been the GOP standard bearer vs Bill Richardson will affect a potential Senate bid, but he won 59% of the primary so he at least looks strong in a primary.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

Sanchez for Congress?
If Wilson does run for Senate I doubt Sancez would challenge her, but if Martin Heinrich runs for Senate he would make a strong candidate for NM-1.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Sanchez
I know I would rather see Sanchez as the nominee.  Wilson took a shot already and lost in the primary.  I'm a big fan of diversity and the GOP adding another Hispanic senator would please me a lot.  He seems to have a good bio and he's a businessman rather than a lawyer (like too many legislators) so I hope he jumps in.
It's got to be considered a lean Dem seat no matter what, but what are the odds of a bloody primary between both Dem house members the same way that happened to the GOP in 2008?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Wilson and Pierce
I think that matchup in 2008 was pretty much a case Wilson realizing she was probably out of a job if she kept running for re-election to that swingy Albuquerque district. She announced first, trying to scare off anyone else, but Pierce knew she was too moderate and that he could easily beat her in a GOP primary if he wanted.  So he did.  Wilson was out of options.

Both Heinrich and Lujan should be fine for re-election in their districts as long as they want, and both of them seem ideologically in sync with their state's Democratic Party, so if they end up running against each other, it's just a case of two hard heads butting into each other.

[ Parent ]
Once Udall jumped in, the Republicans had no chance of winning.
Udall started off with a double-digit lead over both candidates (and was clearly a lot better than Marty Chavez who was in the race at the time).

The bloody primary didn't help, but make no mistake, Udall would have won with or without it that year.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
? No Daily Digest today?
I thought it was shifting to a morning schedule. Is it going back to afternoon?
Lujan vs. Heinrich
I like Heinrich's politics and general appeal more. Those steely blue eyes . . . I'm sorry what was I saying? Heinrich has VP written all over him and legitimate hard working Senator.

However, Lujan is Hispanic, and the US Senate is in DESPERATE need of greater diversity. NM would be a key state in getting a new Hispanic Democrat elected to the US Senate.

Decisions, decisions . . .

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Heinrich is only 39 years old!
I had no idea he was THAT young, amazing...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Both Lujan and Heinrich
Are kids. Neither of them are 40 yet.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
And Balderas

Under 40 years old too.
[ Parent ]
Not only that
but he was on the The Hill's Top 50 Hottest on the Hill!

In all seriousnes, he has to be the best candidate for Dems and will probably start out with the advantage but I think his house seat may be interesting as I'm not sure who the Dems have for a bench there.

[ Parent ]
Indeed
Martin Heinrich is so, so pretty.

Who wants to bet that he could sweet-talk Lindsey Graham and Mark Kirk (the Republican Closet Caucus) into supporting immigration reform again...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Come on...
This isn't called for.
[ Parent ]
I don't see what's inappropriate
about it, personally.
[ Parent ]
Obviously a joke
I thought it was pretty funny.
[ Parent ]
Me too! n/t

[ Parent ]
I'm still laughing
Send Heinrich to Israel/Palestine and he could solve every problem with a smile and a wink.  (Makes me miss Fabio from Top Chef this season.)
[ Parent ]
Giving them this look might work, too:


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'm just glad that Marcel is gone, n/t

[ Parent ]
Auditor Balderas used to live in Albuquerque
He might be interested.

There are also a few Democratic state senators in the Albuquerque area who could get in to succeed Rep. Heinrich.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
That makes sense.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I am not that concerned
That this seat will go to the republicans. Obama should clean up here and the dems should at least have a few good candidates.

20, male, independent, WI-07.
We're probably looking at Heinrich vs. Wilson here...
In which case it's probably a Lean D race, with the potential to go Likely D or toss-up. It's definitely an unwanted headache for Patty Murray, but it shouldn't be too bad. Obama will have awfully sizable coattails here. I don't think Johnson will run, though those PPP numbers may encourage John Cornyn to give him a call. If Johnson runs, this might be toss-up all the way, given his curious pull among Independents and some Dems.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Isn't his Democratic support a mile wide but an inch deep
because it's pretty much entirely based on his support for legalizing/decriminalizing marijuana? Hell, would he even get through a Republican primary?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
A good point

[ Parent ]
Probably not...
So he isn't any more of a threat in NM than Tom Campbell proved to be last year against Barbara Boxer in CA.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Johnson never gets out of a primary
ever
[ Parent ]
NM primary
Does NM have an open primary? It would still have to be a crowded field, say a Wilson Pearce redux + Johnson?

I see 0% chance of a run regadless.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Closed primary
nm

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Would be amusing
if both Wilson and Pierce run again.  Pierce went through a lot of trouble to reclaim his House seat last year, I don't think he'd run for Senate again unless he is damn sure he's going to win.  With Obama expected to win the state by at least 10%, possibly a lot more depending on who the GOP nominates, Pierce would have to seriously outperform the GOP nominee, which I just don't see happening.

I think Pierce would let Wilson take the nomination.  But someone else in the administration (LG perhaps) might run.

[ Parent ]
Pearce would be a fool to run for Senate
I could certainly understand if he took his time to announce to check out how the cycle seems to be heading, but at this point in time, what makes 2008 any different from 2012?  You got curb stomped then because of Presidential turn-out, why not again in 2012?

If I were him, I'd stay in my House seat and have a grand ole fucking time for the rest of my life.

[ Parent ]
"Pearce would be a fool to run for Senate"
Thus, we have him showing interest...

(True, he can make a case no one running is close to Udall in popularity, but how can the guy even consider getting crushed again.)

[ Parent ]
Why are we "probably" looking at any such thing? If Wilson hasn't actually expressed interest...
...I wouldn't be so quick to assume she's interested.

She had to fight to survive in her House seat in 2006, she lost the Senate primary in 2008, and she sat out 2010.

Who says she wants back in the game?  She just as easily could be exhausted and done.

That it's a Presidential year in a state inching left over time, with Obama on the ballot after he won the state by 15 last time, also serves as a disincentive for Wilson and perhaps other top-tier Republicans.

I agree with others here who treat this as a likely hold for us.  This just doesn't worry me too much.  The frustration with this one is really the opportunity cost that comes with it, that instead of a safe Bingamon we now have to put extra money and time into this seat that we rather would spend elsewhere.  So there is a downside in that respect.  But this seat itself is a hold as long as we nominate a competent Democrat.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah, I'm not worried about NM-Sen, even without Bingaman
And I'd like to point out that Wilson is probably a lot less formidable now than she would have been in 2008 (without Udall, of course). Wilson's only saving grace is that she has a base in Albuquerque, but even that would be neutralized by Heinrich (assuming that match-up happens, which I doubt).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
This one won't be a problem
For one, Republicans have a weak bench in New Mexico. Second, Obama has a strong lead over all Republicans there and that gives strength downballot. It's Likely Democrat at the very least.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
I said a while back
that it would be better to get Heinrich into the Senate in a Presidential year, which is almost assuredly going to be Dem-friendly when it comes to New Mexico, rather than waiting until 2018 when who knows what the political climate will be like.

Anyway, my prediction is that Heinrich runs for the Senate, while Heather Wilson runs for NM-01. She has a much greater chance of winning the latter.

Heinrich is getting a call from Murray...
Heinrich is definitely going to jump into the race I think. I am surprised that Bingaman retired though. I do see Wilson jumping into the race as well though. I am pretty confident that Heinrich can and will hold the seat. Lujan I don't think will even enter the primary.

Off topic but are you going to the J & J dinner tomorrow Johnny?

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Nope, I have no association with the DPV.

[ Parent ]
I disagree, Wilson's chances of winning NM-01 really aren't that good
Wilson's victory in 2006 was premised almost entirely on the fact that Patricia Madrid screwed up royally, there's a very good chance that had she run in 2008, she would have been swept away in the blue tide with Udall and Obama.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Steve Pearce is an idiot
if he thinks he can win statewide in New Mexico in this or any year.  His profile is just all wrong.  He's lucky he got his old seat back, plus a Republican governor is probably going to make it safe for him.  He should just stay where he is and count his blessings.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
Wouldn't it be hilarious...
Wouldn't it be hilarious if Pearce runs again with the same result, and the Republicans lose his seat again.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Yes, it would be, which is why I hope he runs.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Im definitely lol'ing
Yes, it would be hysterical.    Pearce for Senate, Teague for House.
[ Parent ]
Honestly, if I were the Republicans
I'd go ahead and shore up the open seat anyway.  A good plan for the Republicans is: make Pearce's seat as safe R as possible, make Heinrich's seat just a point or two more Republican, and pack all the resultant Dem voters into Lujan's district.  That way the Republicans have one seat in bad years, two in good years, and have a shot at a stable two with the right candidate.  Even with Pearce gone it would be easier to win the open seat than to knock off Lujan or take back Heinrich's seat.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Republicans don't control the legislature though
Good bet the courts end up drawing a map, I'd say.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I'm optimistic
I like the early poll numbers I saw here.  While Steve Pierce would be easy to beat again, I'm thinking he knows it and will stay in the House.  So we'll probably run against Wilson (overrated) or some lesser known politician.  I'm liking the idea of Senator Heinrich.

Still, sad to see Bingaman leaving.  Always thought he was a good senator.

Who is next?
I agree that Pearce doesn't stand much chance.  He also may be assuming that the GOP might hold the House for a while (which is probably more wishful than anything), but he certainly was clobbered the last time he ran for Senate.  I would think that the GOP might look for an hispanic candidate, but the Dems still have a big advantage here in a presidential year.   It would be interesting if all 3 current House members ran for the Senate, just as was the case in 2008.  Perhaps if Pearce did run again, we could grab his seat for another couple of years.

There have certainly been a lot of retirements early on in this cycle.  I remember in the last cycle there were a lot of early retirements, mostly on the GOP side.  Perhaps these Senators see their peers leaving and realize that there are other things they want to do in their lives.  Certainly, in Bingaman's case, the commute from DC to New Mexico has to be a bit wearing after 30 years.  

In the present Senate, (thanks to Wikipedia), there are 61 Senators, (including Sen Coats, who served previously), who have been in office 10 years or less.  With the recent retirements, it grows even more.  Certainly, with all these new members, there is more willingness to want to do things now, and buck the old timers.  There is a sense of urgency and also an ability to be heard because there are so many new voices, one doesn't have to wait years and years to be allowed to be heard, as was the case in years gone by.  

WIth the upcoming battles over the budget, which, whatever your opinions on making cuts, imagine the political ads.  Everyone is going to be nailed, no matter what they do.  He hates children, she hates the environment, etc.

I wonder who will retire next.  The latest drama in Indiana is arguing that Lugar isn't  resident. (After 35 years of service, this comes up now?)  This is going to be a rough cycle, with the control of the Senate being so close.  I am wondering about Akaka of Hawaii, and perhaps Kohl in Wisconsin.  There aren't any GOP members left to consider, unless Snowe decides to pack it in.  There are always a few surprises of course.  I wonder if Corker in Tenn. might decide, out of frustration, to leave.  I give Nelson of Nebraska credit for even trying, given his poll numbers and reputation within his party.  Any other thoughts?

Kohl is most likely
I thought Akaka confirmed he was in?
[ Parent ]
Akaka will be 88 in 2012
He has said he is running, but at that age, it is hard to completely rule out a retirement despite that.

Hard to judge with Kohl -- since he can self-fund, there's no way to judge from his fundraising what his plans are. Given everything going on in Wisconsin, that is going to be an extremely interesting race to watch, especially if it turns out to be an open seat. I suspect that the Democratic base there is going to be more enthusiastic (Obama re-election, anger with Walker, union mobilization, etc) than even the Republicans were in 2010.

[ Parent ]
Maybe Feingold's new venture
Could be interpreted as a sign Kohl is running.
[ Parent ]
Or a way for Feingold to stay in the public eye
I think Kohl is probably going to run, but I don't think Feingold's efforts are a sign of that one way or another
[ Parent ]
If they are successful with a recall against the governor.
I'm sure he is a very possible candidate.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
What is the recall process?
Sign my petition and then move onto the next house?  A well-funded recall shouldn't be that hard considering the WI Dem Party might as well just fund this themselves and knock on every Dem door in their voter data base.  (I'm assuming they have one...)
[ Parent ]
Hawaii is safe Dem no matter what Dem is the nominee......
Neither Lingle nor any other GOPer has any chance of winning the Hawaii seat next year.  It's the Obama reelection year, there's zero chance a Republican can get enough ticket-splitters to get over the hump.  Look at what happened last year, Obama's popularity and Hawaii's natural lean were enough to beat Djou, take HI-Gov in a blowout win, and reduce the GOP pathetically to one state Senate seat while losing nothing.

Next year is going to be even worse for the HI GOP than last year.

For the HI GOP, the Obama Presidency can't end fast enough!  But alas, they have to wait another 5 years for an election without Obama mattering much.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Very strange to think that Bush came within
eight or nine points of beating Kerry. Why was that, exactly? Was it the Pearl Harbor Navy base or something else?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
My understanding is that the arrogance of the HI Dem Party really hurt that year in turning off...
...a lot of voters.  Not unusual in a one-party state, you see the dominant party get fat and lazy and arrogant to the point of taking voters and their needs for granted.

At least, that's what I recall being said at the time.

So it was a message-sending election in Hawaii, with voters trying to warn Dems to wake up and pay more attention to voters' needs and good governance.

But that sentiment was overwhelmed in subsequent cycles by strong anti-GOP hostility in the '06 wave election and then the Obama-love era.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Historically, HI has leaned a bit towards incumbent Presidents
who are running for re-election.... aka, President Obama will also have that going for him in '12.  
[ Parent ]
this reminds me of the "Hawaii loves incumbents" meme
not that I'm accusing you of spreading that. but thank you, HI-01, for getting rid of that. that had to be one of the stupidest memes of all 2010.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Loves no, leans towards, I think so
Mostly in Presidential elections --

I gather it goes back further, but Hawaii barely voted for Carter in '76 against an incumbent -- but Carter still won Hawaii in '80. Reagan won Hawaii in '84. Bush I was a bit of an exception in '92, due to Perot. Clinton swept Hawaii in '96 (20+ points), and as stated earlier, Kerry didn't do so well in '04 (even though he still won) -- thus my belief that it "leans" towards incumbents.

Another analogy -- Hanabusa won by 8 in a district with a PVI of D+11

in LA-02, Richmond won by 30 in a district with a PVI of D+25.

By that rationale, I fully expect President Obama to get over 70%, perhaps closer to 80% in Hawaii in '12, meaning that almost --any-- dude with a D by his name could win Akaka's seat, should he choose to retire -- even if Lingle runs.

[ Parent ]
Well, he won HI 72-27 last time, so I don't think he'll be sweating it...
...one bit.  Indeed, I won't be surprised if his campaign literally does no polling in HI.  If they do, it might be simply as a favor to Akaka or, if he retires, the Dem Senate nominee.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Wyoming and Mississippi.
It would take a lot of luck to have a decent chance at grabbing these seats, but if the incumbents lose a primary, that's a big first step. I'm not sure if there's been any talk of primarying Roger Wicker in Mississippi, but I remember reading that some outside Teabagger group was interviewing candidates to take on John Barrasso.

Also, it's not clear what will happen with Orrin Hatch in Utah.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Harry Teague?
I know he claims to have washed his hands of politics and he's a bit too conservative for my taste but I think he would be a top tier get here for sure.  He has the ability to self fund and with the Democrats already having to defend a boat load of seats that is definitely a plus and we won't have to defend an open house seat.  

Just a thought.

But almost exactly fits
my taste...))
[ Parent ]
Teague lost millions being in congress last time...
I don't think he's going to wade into that again.
[ Parent ]
Congratulations, Sen. Heinrich
Seriously, unless Gary Johnson runs, Rep. Henrich should be able to grab this one and take off with it.

Hopefully he's able to clear the field, though, because a racially divisive primary would not be good.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Blast from the past.
I remember my first Yearly Kos convention in Chicago, 2007.  At the time, I remember meeting and being impressed by a guy who was running for Congress at the time, Don Wiviott.  Anyone know if he's interested in perhaps running for a House seat should Lujan or Heinrich go for the Senate?
Balderas seems better
Two teabaggers already in the race on the GOP side, sounds like.

http://www.nmpolitics.net/inde...

Balderas sounds like a much better option for the Dems than Heinrich, I'd say; Hispanic, rising star, and no DCCC headaches in the 1st. Like some other posters said, there need to be more Hispanic senators, and it'll cancel out any GOP attempts to win the seat by running a Hispanic candidate (as with Martinez), and without having to risk the nepotism charges with Lujan. Unless there's some downside to Balderas I'm not getting?

William English
Sounds positively charming.
[ Parent ]
Wilson and Pearce are thinking of running, again.
Everyone probably knows this, but it's just so funny!

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Cook Senate ratings are a joke
Arizona is still Likely R while they breathlessly move NM to Tossup.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/c...

Time to give up now
Jennifer Duffy has spoken!

"That Democrats have 23 seats up in 2012, compared to 10 for Republicans, means that a Republican Senate majority in the next Congress is almost inevitable. This disparity in the number of races in the Toss Up column simply increases Republicans' odds of winning a majority in 2012. In fact, it's worth asking whether these four open Democratic seats amount to something of a self-fulfilling prophecy, since three of the four are in the Toss Up column today."

BS.

[ Parent ]
LOL.
The hyperventilating about the supposed state of fuckedness Democrats are in leaves out something very important: Republicans need either a net gain of three seats plus the presidency (to get the VP tie-breaker) or a net gain of four seats.

Running through the combinations of possiblities (using just the eight tossups for simplicity), Republicans must go AT LEAST 5-3 in the tossups to win control of the Senate.  They'd have to go at least 6-2 if they don't win the presidency.

They'd have to take at least three of the Democratic seats to win control.  Any fewer seats and it's all for naught.  And picking up three Democratic seats is only sufficient if they both protect their own tossups AND win the presidency.  

Losing one of their seats would require they'd either pick off four Democratic seats AND win the presidency OR win at least five Democratic seats.

Losing both of their tossups requires Republicans win either five Democratic seats plus the presidency or to win all six Democratic seats.

Impossible?  Hell no.  Uber-likely?  Again, hell no.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
"Self-fulfilling prophecy"
One could argue the pundits created exactly that last cycle with their dire predictions long before there was any concrete evidence for such calls.
[ Parent ]
Oh, there's definitely something circular in elections.
It's been found that one of the reasons a party does better in a certain year is because, expecting a better-than-usual chance of victory, it's able to recruit more quality challengers.  The party expected to fair poorly tends to have a worse recruiting record.  This increases the areas of defense for the down-party and decreases it for the up-party.  

The party expected to lose also tends to see more strategic retirements (i.e. done to save oneself from the indignity of a likely loss).  

Any money is endogenous.  A challenger expected to do well raises money far more easily than those not expected to win, and is thus more likely to win.

That being said, it's early, and things change.  We were on a role at the beginning of the last cycle.  Martinez, Bond, Voinovich, and Gregg were retiring (three of those four were blue states) and we got top-tier challengers in the likes of Robin Carnahan and Paul Hodes.  You see how all of that went.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
What do they base any of this on?
The only credible polling we've seen shows Rep. Heinrich way out ahead of everyone but Johnson, who has categorically and repeatedly ruled out a bid.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Battered wife syndrome
All news is good for the GOP.
[ Parent ]
And they don't find PPP credible
See their VA and NC presidential ratings. And Dave Wasserman even called their polls "lousy" last year.
[ Parent ]
IIRC, didn't they perform better than all other nationwide pollsters...
Other than SurveyUSA?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Yup
If anything their final polls overstated Republicans.
[ Parent ]
Interesting running debate on RRH on PPP
the former Ryan_in_Delco seems to be working hard to defend PPP based on 538 data, etc.

Part of the issue there seems to be based on the oversampling of Ds in the latest NM Sen poll, ignoring that there was also oversampling of Rs (if I remember right).  

[ Parent ]
The poll was too white if I recall
They can pick PPP apart all they want but they have proved themselves well beyond my satisfaction.
[ Parent ]
Correct on AZ
But NM is definitely lean Dem at the least.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
My own view is both lean party retention
But I see more support for your position than Duffy's.
[ Parent ]
Now that Gary Johnson is out
we'll see if the ratings change again.....

(Being generous, Johnson as a NM-Sen candidate would have justified a toss-up rating.)

[ Parent ]
Hypothetically speaking
Giffords would make Arizona a tossup. And there is and was more chance of her running than Johnson.
[ Parent ]
Not a dagger....
I am pretty surprised that Bingaman is retiring. I was thinking that he was going to run again from all of the news that I had been hearing. I wish him the best and will miss him though I was never able to vote for him (I wasn't old enough by a few days in 2000 and 2006 I was gone).

That said, this creates a great opportunity for Martin Heinrich. He is bar far my choice to run for the Senate. While as a Latino I would love for another Latino to be in the Senate, Heinrich is a great Representative and would most likely hold the seat.  He is solid on the issues, carries himself very well and is knowledgeable about what he discusses. Not that I have anything against Ben Ray Lujan but he does not have the same type of appeal that Heinrich has. I hope that Lujan stays out of the race. Other contenders as mentioned are Auditor Hector Balderas, Diane Denish who I hope stays out, former Albuqueque Mayor Martin Chavez who I also hope stays out.

Heather Wilson is likely going to jump into the race and I think that she would be the GOPs top contender. I don't see many of the GOP Latinos that could jump in and be more viable than she would be.  I don't think that Steve Pearce is arrogant enough to try and run for the Senate again. I hope he does as he would lose badly again.

A Heinrich vs. Wilson matchup would be great. In a Presidential turnout year I am confident that Heinrich would be able to win. He had a very tough race in 2010 so I'm not concerned about him cracking under pressure. This isn't a terrible retirement and it is much better that he does it in 2012 and gives a Presidential turnout model when it is likely that NM will be carried by team blue than a 2018 mid-term turnout.  Can't believe that in 2013 NM won't be represented by either Bingaman or Domenici and Udall will be the senior Senator!

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

Rep. Heinrich fires out a test shot on his e-mail list
Just a few minutes ago Martin Heinrich sent out a message on his e-mail list tying himself to his great friend Jeff Bingaman and saying he looks forward to working closely with him for the next two years. Nothing crude or tasteless about any plan to succeed him but I interpret it as an advance on that eventual campaign.

Personally I love the idea of Martin Heinrich in the senate.  

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  

And if Susana Martinez jumps to the race?

Unfortunately the PPP poll give not numbers for this option.
Doubtful.
She just became governor.  She's focusing on more important things...like repealing mendicinal marijuana.  Yep, nothing's more important than making sure that glaucoma victims suffer endlessly.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Why would she do that?

[ Parent ]
Highly Doubtful.
Trivia Time. When was the last time a Governor won a US Senate seat two years into their first term? I really can't think of any.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
From way back, Richard Russell of Georgia
He was elected governor in 1930.  In 1932, he ran for a Senate seat that was open due to the death of the incumbent Senator.  Russell was re-elected to a full Senate term in 1936 and ended up serving until 1970. One of the Senate office buildings is named after Russell.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R...

Perhaps this has happened since then, but I could not find a more recent example.  In any event, your are correct that it is an extremely rare occurrence.

[ Parent ]
Wendell Ford 1974
and Joe Manchin 2010 are active Gov running for office.

Manchin was 2nd termer-Wendell Ford was in a term limited only term in 1974

[ Parent ]
That would invite comparisons
to a prominent former Gov of Alaska who didn't finish her term.

And that alone would probably sink Martinez.

[ Parent ]
Good.
Not good in the sense a good Senator is leaving but I would rather defend this in a Presidential year than a midterm anyhow. Plus Heinrich will make a terrific Senator. Lujan isn't bad but I still prefer Heinrich. Not sure why people are putting this at tossup, its still leans D in my book. If Wilson is smart she will run for Heinrich's open seat.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
NM
UGH.  Yes, It is NM and yes it still leans towards us, and yes if this was going to be open this is the year to do it.  All that being said, this still sucks.  It will likely suck some money out of the DSCC and will continue the meme of Dems running for the hills.

Every time we get some good news (Lieberman retiring, Murphy running, great Obama numbers) we get some crap news a week or two later (Obama not so good, Bingamann, Webb retiring, etc.)

We just can't catch a break.

29/D/Male/NY-01

I'm not particularly
concerned about money. Even a truly terrible candidate like Lee Fisher was able to raise over $6 million. Plus, it's all but guaranteed we will have a strong presidential presence in all sorts of states.

What worries me is the proliferation of outside groups that will have as much of an effect as they did last time. Thankfully, the liberals with lots of money are preparing to fight back.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Hector Balderas plans to run for Bingaman seat
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

New Mexico State Auditor Hector Balderas has all but settled on running for the U.S. Senate seat that will be vacated by Sen. Jeff Bingaman next year, according to a Democratic source familiar with his thinking.

Balderas, who is considered a rising star in his party for becoming the youngest Hispanic statewide elected official in the country in 2006, has already contacted the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, made phone calls to donors and consultants and taken the initial steps to build a campaign team, the source told POLITICO Saturday.

"It's 95 percent.  He's all but in," said the source.



"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Wow, that's fast.
Not surprising, though; if he can consolidate enough support quickly, he could scare Heinrich out of a tough primary fight.
[ Parent ]
An offer to Heinrich
What sort of behind the scenes moves are being made to prevent a divisive primary, if any?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Good idea.
We run a top-tier and need not put Heinrich's seat at stake.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That's great
I'm convinced he may be the strongest potential Democratic nominee, glad he is moving fast on this.

Personally hoping the Democratic members of Congress decide to stay put and Balderas ends up with a fairly clear path to the nomination.

[ Parent ]
Balderas
He seems like a very good candidate to run. I really don't know much about him as I left NM before he was elected in 2006. As a Latino I would really love to see a Latino elected but I don't consider that to be a "litmus test". A white Senator who supports Latino causes (like Tom Udall) is much better than a Latino Senator who doesn't support Latino causes (like Marco Rubio most likely). I would happily support Heinrich if he appeared to be the most electable progressive which I believe is the case.

I like Ben Ray Lujan but his candidacy really scares me. Just googling his name and seeing the 2nd suggestion of "Ben Ray Lujan gay" scares me. I personally don't care but I see a lot of older Latino Catholic voters caring and that is a shame.  I doubt that it is true (and honestly who cares if it is) but the fact that google picks it up may cause enough people to believe that it is true. That aside, I am in the corner of Martin Heinrich right now.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
NM-Sen: Bingaman Plans to Retire | 166 comments

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