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The Van Hollander (8-0 Map of MD)

by: drobertson

Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 7:48 PM EST


Sorry about the corny title. I felt that after the infamous Delaymander of Texas, this needed a similar name, and Steny Hoyer's name didn't lend itself to this as much as Chris Van Hollen's name did. Anyway, this map attempts to defeat Andy Harris and Roscoe Bartlett while keeping all Democratic incumbents safe. And as an added bonus, it draws a new majority-minority district, just for the hell of it. Overall, this map is probably even cleaner looking than the current map of MD (which was always unnecessarily ugly, IMO). The only really ugly looking district is the 3rd, and even that looks better than it did before.

DC Area:

Baltimore:

drobertson :: The Van Hollander (8-0 Map of MD)
Starting in the west, the panhandle is now in MD-08. In most of this area, the I-270 serves as the barrier between MD-08 and MD-06, with the area SW of the 270 in the 8th and the area NE of the 270 in MD-06. The 8th is 61%O/38%M and the 6th is 62%O/37%M. Van Hollen should be safe, and Bartlett is toast. MD-05 is the new majority-minority district. The racial stats are 49%W/28%B/15%H/7%A. I actually wasn't intending to do this, but it just so happened that when I drew MD-05 it turned out 51% white, so I decided to tinker with the borders a little to make it majority-minority. The citizen voting age population is probably still majority-white, but that doesn't really matter as this wasn't required anyway. MD-04 takes in Calvert and some GOP parts of Anne Arundel Co. It is 39%W/53%B and 75%O/24%M. The 1st loses all its territory in the Baltimore suburbs and now crosses the water in the south into St. Mary's, Charles, and a tiny part of PG Co. It is now 50%O/48%M, which would be slightly Republican leaning nationally but should be easy for Kratovil to win, especially now that Andy Harris is drawn out of the district. Interestingly, the PG Co parts of the district make up a tiny 33K people, or 5% of the total population of the district, however without these areas the district goes from 50/48 Obama to 47/51 McCain.

In the Baltimore area, the 2nd and 3rd districts have lost their spagetti-like shape and become much more compact. The 2nd district contains Harford and most of northern Baltimore counties as well as the northern part of Baltimore city. The district is 58%O/40%M, which is slightly less than the previous total of 59%O/39%M, but not significantly enough to affect this district much. The 3rd is now a crescent shaped district that stretches around from John Sarbanes's home in Towson around Baltimore, Howard, and Anne Arundel counties as well as some liberal white areas of Baltimore around the Inner Harbor and Fells Point. It is now 59%O/39%M, which like the 2nd is slightly less than the 60%O/38%M it was before but not significantly. The 7th composes most of the majority black areas of Baltimore, however it stretches out to grab up Republican areas in Baltimore county from the surrounding districts. It is 42%W/52%B and 70%O/28%M.

I guess this map isn't technically an 8-0 map, as the 1st still has a slight Republican lean. That could easily be gotten rid of by messing with the borders between the 4th and the 1st some more, however I decided that wasn't necessary and it would require making the map look a little uglier. This 1st contains Kratovil's base in the Eastern Shore, where he always did very well, but not the Baltimore suburbs that he consistently lost. I guess it's theoretically possible that the GOP could pick up the 2nd or 3rd in an open-seat situation (maybe), however I really, really doubt they have much more of a chance than they do under the current map.

Poll
What do you think is the likely result of this map?
An 8-0 split
A 7-1 split. Republicans hold the 1st.
A 6-2 split. Republicans take over the 2nd or 3rd.
A 6-2 split. Roscoe Bartlett survives in the 6th.
Something else (explain in comments)

Results

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Thanks for the posting this map.
Its a tribute to what technology can do.  Several misc. comments.

1. I have described the process of what the democrats have to do to maximize their political advantage.  This map is a perfect example of it.  The three  main democratic counties & Baltimore city (Montgomery, Prince Georges, Baltimore county) equal about 56% of the state. Under this map those four counties/city provide the key political drive in all 8 congressional seats.  

2. By my reckoning the three minority majority seats in this state (CD4, CD7 & CD8) all appear to be less of a minority seat then before.  I read that as retrogression but the seats all appear to be over 50% minority so maybe not.  I leave that to others to decide and that includes the DOJ.

3. I really do not know what the incumbents would think of these lines.  That would be the main hindrance to lines like this.  

I personally see this arrangement but I could be wrong.  


"The I-270"?
I thought referring to highways with "the" was strictly a California thing.

Is it?
I lived in LA until two years ago, so that would make sense. I've never noticed that people out here don't say that.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Most interstates that I know of
on the east coast have names. I.e., "the beltway."

[ Parent ]
Hmmm..
A lot of Interstates and other limited access highways around here are just known by their numbers - 66, 270, 95 (the parts that aren't the Beltway), 395, 50, 97....
most of these highways have names that few people use.

Some roads like the George Washington Parkway don't have numbers.

Of course, Baltimore has a Beltway (695) too but I immediately think of 95/495 when I hear that term, but Baltimore traffic reports usually refer to 695 as "the Beltway."  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
I believe I-95 is called the New England Thruway
in western CT and Westchester County.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
not even
it's only SoCal. i've never heard anything referred to with "the" in the Bay Area

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
The MacArthur Maze?
or did that change after the fire?

[ Parent ]
I think it's numbered freeways...
You'd never hear "The 280" or "The 101" in San Francisco.

[ Parent ]
I do not know anyone
 Who goes "I 280." We always just say the number. The GPS people say it though. Maybe people say it in SoCal but not NorCal.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
No, we don't actually
When I was living in SoCal I would just say "the 405" not "the I-405" (the 405 is a perfect example of the east coast/west coast thing about naming highways. the technical name of the 405 is the San Diego Freeway but I never heard anyone refer to it as anything other than the 405).  I just said the "I 270" once so that people knew I was talking about the highway. Notice how I said "the 270" after that.  

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
I-94
We do it here in the Midwest, too; in Michigan, we always refer to Interstate I-94 (which runs from Port Huron and through Kalamazoo, Jackson, Battle Creek, etc. all the way to Montana) as I-94. If it actually has a name, I'd be surprised to here it.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
"The"
I meant calling it "the I-94" as opposed to "I-94."

[ Parent ]
Hoyer would be representing the Minority Majority District
I don't think he'd be the best person for that. Also you'd either have Edwards against Hoyer in a primary (that is majority African American) or you'd have Edwards trying to represent Carroll County. Either way, she's not getting out of the primary.

You're also making Sarbanes represent a lot of Howard and Anne Arundel, while  he came from a more Baltimore-area. He should have more of the city.  

20 M MD-01


Baltimore Shrank
There are fewer people there to go around, and a lot of them have to be in the 7th if that district is going to have a black majority.

The suburbs that are further from DC (which are more in the 2nd than the 3rd) have a more Republican lean than those that are on the commuter routes to DC (which are more in the 3rd than the 2nd.) Ergo, the 2nd needs Baltimore City residents more than the 3rd does.

The plans I drew tend to let Sarbanes keep a little of Baltimore, but pushing that district out of the city makes perfect sense.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Misc Points
1)MD-05 is plurality-white, and it is effectively majority-white once you factor in citizen voting-age population instead of total population. Hoyer would probably coast by in the primary.
2)I have heard that Hoyer doesn't actually really live in his district, ever since his wife died he lives in DC and just rents an address or something in his district. The town (Mechanicsville) where his residence is listed at is in the 1st district now, but I think it shouldn't be a problem for him to just rent an apartment in PG Co and call it his residence or just not care.
3)Donna Edwards lives in Fort Washington, right along the Potomac river in SE PG Co. She'd be in the 4th under this district. Part of Ft. Washington is in the 1st district, but this was the part that was previously in the 5th district so unless Edwards already lived outside her district she is fine.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
So Hoyer and Edward's would Either Be in the Same District?
Or Hoyer would have to represent the Shore? Because neither would live in the new 5th right? That would have to be new. Hoyer is from Southern PG County originally and I'd imagine would want to continue representing that part of Maryland, instead of getting a new district where the majority of his district he's never represented.

And would Van Hollen live in the new 6th or 8th? He lives in Kensington I think so it would be right on the line.

20 M MD-01


[ Parent ]
Nice Job
I suppose a couple incumbents might not be thrilled with having to deal with new constituents, but overall I think this is an efficient way of maximizing Democratic strengths while keeping pretty clean lines.

Looking This Over
The cleaner lines are good. Eyeballing it suggests that the partisan numbers are look pretty good and balanced.

But the plan's not going to look anything like this.

Trying to figure out whose district is whose, for one thing. I suppose if there were a commission drawing these in a vacuum that wouldn't matter much. But I think you left the Minority Whip without a district. He lives in St. Mary's County in this map's 1st district, which favors (albeit far less than the current 1st does) Republicans; the most obvious place for him to run is in this map's 4th, which is clearly designed to elect an African-American and is where Donna Edwards lives.  

Re: the 7th: When you're a Democrat making a VRA district, it makes sense to pair heavily non-white areas with the most conservative/Republican areas possible. This map attempts to do that with the East Side of Baltimore County...but what the Obama/McCain numbers don't tell you by themselves is that these voters are not Republicans. And from Eli Cummings' point of view, they're actually worse for him than having a bunch of Republicans would be, since that area has a lot of ancestral Democrats with a specific history of not voting for black candidates.

There's no specific rule I know of against a district jumping the bay via open water, but I can't imagine Democrats doing that when they have other options.  

 

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


Maryland's 1980s map
included an Eastern Shore + Southern Maryland district.

[ Parent ]
Indeed They Did
I didn't live here at the time...was that a whole Shore plus Southern Maryland or did some other Shore counties get put in a different district?  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
That district included
St Mary, Charles & Calvert county but none of Prince Georges.  Maryland has changed quite a bit since 1982.

I could discuss for days in the ins and outs what is likely to be the maps in Maryland.  I think there are some VRA implications but the biggest issue will the incumbents.  Yes Hoyer will be accomdated.  Is there any doubt who has the clout on redistricting in Maryland.  Hoyer is a national figure.  Yup Hoellen will be happy too.

On a more particular nature the two AA congressman people will also be 100% happy with their seat.  There is a huge bloc of legislators who will protect AA congressman in MD.  I think MD4 will be mostly (80% or more) in Prince Georges.  Cummings will be over 60% or more in Baltimore.  That's their bases.  That's the reality as their re-election and the nature of their seats depends on their base.  


[ Parent ]
Incumbents
If we're talking about incumbents, Donna Edwards largely owes her initial election victory to the Montgomery part of the district, including the white voters who have proven perfectly willing to vote for AA candidates over and over again but are turned off by PG County dysfunctional machine politics. (Albert Wynn is a PG machine product in addition to showing way too many DINO tendencies for such a liberal district. Edwards may be from PG county, but had no role in county politics.) I'm sure she hasn't forgotten that.

Eli Cummings is probably looking at one of those Senate seats. Neither Cardin nor Mikulski are spring chickens and he's been waiting his turn. What better way to prepare for a Senate run than have some more new constituents get to know you, assuming VRA compliance and no real risk of electoral (primary or general) defeat?

Hoyer's district probably won't change much except it has to shrink. I can't see him getting, say, chunks of the Eastern Shore.

If Sarbanes is looking at higher office, having people in the DC burbs know who he is (independent of his Dad) isn't a bad thing, to the extent his district ends up being pushed west/south.

How comfortable Van Hollen feels with a D+7 district that covers Western Maryland is an important question. I think this is one of the reasons why a 7-1 map is more likely than an 8-0 one, the other being the reddening of some Baltimore suburbs.



36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Your point
about Wynn was one that I got hammered on  last month.  Wynn, Cynathia McKinney, Carolyn Kirkpatrick and Hillard in AL all lost their seats in Democratic primaries. The incumbents carried the AA vote in the democratic primary but got nailed by the white vote in their district.

How many AA democrats have general elections?  My mind is on other matters today but I cannot recall the last one to lose a GE.  AA congressman lose in primaries. Yup often you see white voters in a primary picking what sort of Black congressman they want to represent the district.  

 So the two key points for any AA congressman is what % of your seat will be black plus what type white voter will be included in your district.  As noted Montgomery county actually provided liberal votes to boot Wynn out. In Michigan last year white more  conservative voters booted Kirkpatrick out.  What sort of white voters are in Carrol county or Anne Arundel county?  or Calvert county?  Edwards and Cummings will not want hostile voters.  

I think Cummings can live with Howard county as could Edwards live with Montgomery.  I don't think either one wants Western Anne Arundel or Carrol county.  

I don't claim to be an expert on Prince George's county, I did live there in 1957 to 1962 in Hillcrest Heights, but I don't expect Pols there to want the county divided three ways.  That decreases the chances of people from that county being congressman.  


[ Parent ]
Interesting Distinctions
There are different classes of hostile voters.

Unless you're talking about an extremely polarized and precarious situation, some place like Carroll County isn't actually of much concern to someone holding down a VRA district. They're Republicans. In a closed primary state they're generally not participating in Democratic primaries so they're of little help to any potential primary opponent. And there usually aren't anywhere near enough to them to give your Republican opponent much of a chance in a general election.

Eastern Baltimore County, OTOH, is Cummings' worst nightmare. A lot of those folks are still registered as Democrats. A lot of them still sometimes vote Democratic. But they by and large don't vote for African-American candidates.  This area is not going into MD-07, which also means it's not going into Harford County either.  

Howard County is where MD-07 goes now. It's pretty good for him. There are, especially in the far west, Republicans there but Democrats are the clear majority. There are some AA voters in/around Columbia. The problem is that other Democrats need it more, both from a "maximizing Democrats" and from a "fill out the population of the Baltimore-area seats" point of view.

Anne Arundel is such a mixed bag it's tough to generalize. It has several pockets of African-American residents. It also has some extremely Republican zones. When I drew maps, I have generally stuck parts on MD-07 down here, including some AA enclaves and some super-red communities, so more marginal districts don't get them instead. (I don't end up with a PVI below about D+15 for a district like this, which is plenty.)

 

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
There is no
doubt that party registration moderates it a bit.  Your pool of democrats in Carroll county will be smaller but in a highly contested primary even 8% of the vote can matter.  

I have noticed in these hybrid urban/suburban/rural districts that voters often vote against the incumbent & there is a distrust between rural voters and urban voters.  

Lets be clear I don't see primary battles on the horizon for either AA congressman in MD/  That being said who don't often see primary battles until the last minute.  

In a seat that's 50% AA and 25% R by registration some 1/4 to 1/3 of the voters will be white in a primary.  That's not enough, unless its an open seat, to boot an AA congressman out but it is enough to determine contested primaries


[ Parent ]
Dollar Bill Jefferson
Lost in the general, but Louisiana politics may not count as far as this is concerned.

Before that, I'm not sure there's one since Carol Moseley Braun.  Which is a different kind of exception.


[ Parent ]
Forgot about
Jefferson.  Braun was statewide.  AA congressman tend to have really safe seats in GE.  Its the primary stuff and open seat elections.  

[ Parent ]
Eastern Baltimore County
Is also turning red faster than any part of Baltimore County. I think Dems did around 10 points worse in '10 than they did in '06, and O'Malley did better in Baltimore County this year than 4 years ago.

I think its more likely Sarbanes will go for Western Baltimore County, Dutch takes the East Side, and Cummings gets more of Howard and AA, or some form of that... the only problem I can see with that is Dutch might get too conservative of a district, but they'll probably vote for him anyway. They delegates and senators for Essex and Dundalk and both the county council people for the East Side are all Democrats... its kind of like West Virginia in that sense.

20 M MD-01


[ Parent ]
Good, but improbable.
State Delegate Reznik was just at UMD and one of the questions we asked him, was what will the map look like. his response was that the Comissision would probably seek to knock out Andy Harris (MD-01) and let Bartlett survive, he's 86 anyway and the other MD representatives somewhat like him.  

Democrat, MD-08 (Home), MD-05 (School)

Bartlett Retiring?
Bartlett is over 80 and has anemic fundraising totals. (I don't think even under normal circumstances he's a fundraising dynamo, but they're really low for anyone who plans to run for re-election.)

There's a decent chance that most of Harris' core constituency (northern Baltimore/central Harford) ends up in Bartlett's district.

This makes me wonder if Harris deciding to run in the 6th, either against Bartlett or to replace a retiring Bartlett, is a possibility.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Harris is kind of a pain-in-the-ass
Probably much more so than Bartlett is. So it makes sense they want him out.

I think another aspect is who decides to run. If the commission meets with Kratovil and he says he doesn't want the seat... who else would run for that seat. Whereas if you take Bartlett out with a lot of the maps we've been seeing, one of the million and eight MoCo politicians who want to move up to higher office could jump into that race. Except for Kratovil the only three I could think that might be legitimate are Jim Mathias (who just won a very close st. senate seat), Norm Conway (who represents the lower Shore for many many years) and the Jim Ireton, Mayor of Salisbury, (who is supposedly very good but is also openly gay which could be an issue on the Shore. If none of these three want it, we could still wind up losing that seat.

20 M MD-01


[ Parent ]
Great Job!
Really solid map. As previous commentators have said, I think they take out Andy Harris but let Bartlett survive.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

Great Map
But where does Steny go?

[ Parent ]
The Hoyer thing was the only problem here
He really lives in the worst possible place for drawing this map. I was relying on the fact that he would run in the new MD-05 because (I have heard) that he basically spends most of his time residing in DC now and doesn't really live in the place his address is registered at. Of course I could be wrong about that (just a rumor I have heard, don't really have anything to back it up), or he could not want to change districts like this anyway. I don't exactly know, although I wish he would just be willing to go somewhere else.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]

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