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VA-Sen: Webb Won't Seek Another Term

by: James L.

Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 12:14 PM EST


I guess we can't consider this a surprise:

Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) announced he will not seek re-election in 2012.

The first-term Senator issued a statement saying he will return to the private sector, removing the possibility of a high-profile rematch with former Republican Sen. George Allen.

"It has been a great and continuing privilege to serve in the United States Senate," Webb said. "I am very proud of my talented and dedicated staff, which has worked tirelessly to resolve the issues on which I based my candidacy, and to protect the interests of all Virginians in this national forum."

So who might run in Webb's place for Team Blue? Perhaps it's time for a comeback from Tom Perriello, who fought valiantly in 2010 despite occupying a tough district?
James L. :: VA-Sen: Webb Won't Seek Another Term
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VA-Sen: Webb Won't Seek Another Term | 202 comments
Tim Kaine
I know he said he wouldn't do it, but politicians backtrack on those things all the time. As head of the DNC, he knows how important it is to keep the majority, and would likely do it if pushed hard enough.
Kaine
Ben Smith says the door isn't shut.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

[ Parent ]
I think Kaine would be very strong candidate

I glad of read it.

The poll of PPP shows him as the strongest candidate in the democratic side, and if the DNC chair has not a minimum level of compromise with the democratic party, who must have?

I think T Kaine can not tell not to a bid for senate after lead the polls. If he tell not I would be dissapointed despite he is not my favorite politician.

J Webb or T Perriello would be very strong candidates for Governor in 2012.

[ Parent ]
Kaine Statement
When can we expect Kaine to make a statement? Likely not today (why step on Webb's announcement?).

Certainly by the end of the week IMO, not likely a full announcement, but if the answer is NO then why keep Periello et al waiting?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
If not Kaine, Perriello
My bet is that Terry is holding out for another run at Governor... any chance Moran is interested in another statewide run?

Male, 19, VT-AL (home), CT-03 (college)
Kaine and Perriello
I think they both could be strong candidates - but a Perriello campaign would be more exciting.
[ Parent ]
This is my feeling
I think Kaine makes this race one that while contentious, on election day we would probably feel good about it - a well-known candidate with solid favorables should be enough to keep this seat if VA goes with Obama, and even if the President was to lose here, Kaine would still have a fighting chance.  Periello, on the other hand, would be more of a fight, but he's also someone who you can count on being up for that battle.  If either of the two are in, I don't think we'll be able to complain all that much about getting our man.

Male, 19, VT-AL (home), CT-03 (college)
[ Parent ]
Moran is busy as the DPVA head
Plus his day job is as a lobbyist for the for-profit college industry.
[ Parent ]
Moran
After his performance in 2009, I hope not.  Plus, he has some baggage, such as lobbying for the for-profit higher education industry.  Tim Kaine or Tom P would be much better choices I think.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Perriello
A better candidate than Kaine, needs a job and would make a far superior Senator.

Run, Tom, run.

Perriello!
Anyone who votes for Obama will also vote for Perriello. Plus he can appeal to a few additional Southern Dems if he needs them to push him over the top. Polls suggest that if Obama wins reelection then he will win Virginia. If Obama wins Virginia then Perriello also wins Virginia. If Obama loses Virginia then losing the Virginia Senate seat will be the least of our problems.

I want to thank Senator Webb for his service. He achieved what he said he wanted: ending the war in Iraq and passing the GI Bill.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

Indeed
This announcement is a bit of a bummer. However, as you point out, he did what he set out to do in the Senate, and knocked off the utterly loathsome George Allen and helped derail his White House aspirations, and for that I must give thanks.

It's hard to picture an Obama voter supporting Allen or whoever beats Allen in a GOP Primary.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
while
Coattails are only so long I agree with your assesment.

If Perriollo runs a credible strong campaign and with minority turnout at its highest, along with attack ads w allen's "macaca" moment, Perriello could def win this race

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
comeback time
I'm pretty excited that two of my favorites who lost in 2010--Perriello and Sestak--now have a credible path back.  (There was a Sestak PA-Gov '14 rumor here recently.)  Two hard working campaigners who aren't afraid to stand up for their beliefs.

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.
[ Parent ]
Larry Sabato (NOT the blogger "Not Larry Sabato") says explicitly Obama outcome decides VA-Sen......
Sabato tweeted today that so long as Dems nominate a competent candidate, the Democrat will win if Obama wins the state, and lose to Allen if Obama loses the state.  Sabato thinks Prez year coattails will be decisive.  And he smartly points to 2000, when Allen won only 52% against a badly-damaged Chuck Robb who won in '94 only because he had Oliver North to run against and never rehabilitated his reputation after beating North.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Sabato knows his stuff
Especially in VA. He is probably right.
[ Parent ]
Cannot seriously imagine a scenario where Allen and Obama both win
Short of the Dem candidate having a Rich Iott problem or something.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Agree
This is why I don't think we'd be in much worse shape with a B-list candidate like a state senator, such as Chap!, for example.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
The big disadvantage of having a state legislator run
would be they'd either have to retire or wait until after the elections this year to start running.
[ Parent ]
Good Point, I agree
But,the primaries are in August this year, which makes it a bit easier for them to decide to retire and run for the U.S. Senate

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
I like Chap
But we need the state senate. Only have our majority by 1 seat now, hard to see someone bailing to let McDonnell have all state power.

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I think I'd like to see Perriello run instead of Kaine.
Even though Perriello lost in 2010, he still got 48% in a district that's more conservative than the state as a whole. What's even better is that he got so close to being reelected by embracing Obama and progressive policies instead of running as a pseudo-Republican. With Obama at the top of the ballot and heavily contesting the state, I don't see why Perriello would have all that much trouble defeating Allen.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
Of course that didn't work for Scott Kleeb.
Now admittedly comparing how one does in a 2006 to a 2010 election is apples and oranges.  But that said a statewide race versus a district race is also apples and oranges.  In a house race you are more able to focus on local issues to make a dent in otherwise skeptical voters.

I like Periello and wouldn't mind him if Kaine doesn't run.  But in no way would I prefer him over Kaine who is a proven statewide vote getter.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Mentioning Kleeb in this couldn't be more off-point......
Kleeb never won an election in his life, and lost that hotly-contested House race by 10 points.  So he entered the statewide race with zero credibility.

And Nebraska isn't Virginia, not even close.  Nebraska is right-wing every cycle, Virginia is dead-center in a Prez year and center-right in a midterm.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'll agree on both points...
That Virginia is not Nebraska and Perriello is more proven having won his house race than Kleeb.  But I chose an extreme example to illustrate that just because someone does well in a red district that doesn't necessarily translate into other areas particularly as the race becomes less local.

Perhaps a better example might be Creigh Deeds.  Many of us (and I include myself in that group) wanted him over Moran and McAuliffe because he could better appeal to otherwise Republican leaning voters particularly in western Virginia.  And while he did perform well in his home county he got crushed elsewhere.

But as I said I like Perriello and I do think he could potentially perform well.  And one would certainly hope he'd do better than the moribund Deeds.  But it's always a risk.  And that is why I'd rather have Kaine who has already won a big time race for Governor and is proven.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
True, but then again, Deeds was, for lack of a better term, the best of the losers
I mean, the polling early on was basically saying that all three were likely to lose to McDonnell anyways (plus I think the problem with Deeds was the fact that he completely took NoVA for granted, which with a candidate like McDonnell was a huge mistake).

I'd also point out that candidate quality matters more not less for a senate race than a house race simply because the candidates are better known, it's easier to differentiate yourself from your party label (and really, Allen, unlike McDonnell, doesn't come across as being moderate, and his recent past makes it very easy to juxtapose into a third-party ad).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I agree...
And I think the only reason he has trailed in head-to-head polling is that he lacks statewide name recognition. And he would be able to turn that around quite quickly if he campaigns like he did last year and in 2008.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I agree...
And I think the only reason he has trailed in head-to-head polling is that he lacks statewide name recognition. And he would be able to turn that around quite quickly if he campaigns like he did last year and in 2008.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I
Would back Perriello over the rest who seem to be looking at the race.

It still kind of amazes me how our bench is so shallow even throw it is trending Blue.

Hopefully we can get a top tier candidate for this race unlike the gov rave in 09

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

Not too shallow
Kaine is a reasonably popular former governor, Perriello and Connolly would both be strong alternatives.
[ Parent ]
How did Kaine's approvals look when he left office?
I seem to recall he was looked on favorably, but that could be Warner I'm thinking of.

If Kaine was looked on well at the time, then either he or Perriello would make a strong candidate (unless being head of the DNC has somehow tainted Kaine in the eyes of VA voters) in a presidential year.

I'd be pulling for Perriello, no argument there, but I'd still take a Senator Kaine over a Senator Allen (or Senator Random Tea-Flavored Republican) in a heartbeat.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)

PPP had him beating Allen
By a greater margin than Webb based on 43-40 positive favorability.
[ Parent ]
Thanks!
I was convinced I'd seen something along those lines.  Thanks for the confirmation!

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)
[ Parent ]
Note, too, that the RNC
is calling out Kaine in their press release, saying something like they "hope" he runs. Which suggests to me they don't. ;-)
[ Parent ]
Link
[ Parent ]
Kaine from Nov. '10
PPPollings survey from late last year;

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Kaine?
Favorable 43%
Unfavorable 40%
Not sure 17%

Q12 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George
Allen, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine 50%
George Allen 44%
Undecided 6%

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Key to an Allen-Kaine race
Despite the talk of a tea party challenge to Allen his numbers among GOPers is stellar (73/8 approval) the fight will be among Indys, right now (or last year I should say) Kaine's approval with them is 48/38 and Allen is 38/45.

Can Kaine maintain those numbers among independents while taking heat for his positions as head of the DNC? Can Allen improve his numbers as he runs against a far right challenger, or will they decline further as he is forced right in a primary?

All this is overshadowed by "Macaca" if Allen can change the subject and make the race about anything else he'll do very well.


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
That's almost comical
Comparing Kaine's noncontroversial tenor as chairman of the DNC to Allen's racial slurs and (apparent) white-supremacist tendencies is laughable.

The growth of NoVA relative to the rest of the state in particular makes it that much harder to change the subject away from Allen's past (which is highly relevant).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I most certainly was NOT comparing the two
I was simple stating each candidates challenge with independent voters. Allen will hit Kaine hard to tie him to the most unpopular portions of the Democratic agenda, Allen's challenge is overcoming his Macaca reputation is his.

I'm not at all equating the two, mearly stating the key factors that will determine the winner.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
It's not even possible to get voters to care about Kaine's DNC tenure......
No one cares about party leadership, it's not a public office.  Unless you did something particularly scandalous and/or embarrassing as a party official, like Michael Steele, voters just don't care.

And if Obama wins the state again, tying Kaine to Obama or to Democrats generally will backfire as a plus, not a minus, for Kaine.

Make no mistake, Republicans are worried they might not be able to nominate someone who can beat Obama, they in turn are worried about losing Virginia again in the Presidential, and they in further turn are worried about not being able to get enough people to split their tickets to get Allen over the top.  So they're not going to tie Kaine to Obama unless they think the odds are against Obama winning Virginia again.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Your Assumption
is that tying Kaine to Obama would be a positive for Kaine, I don't think that is true, especially when you are looking at Allen attack ads, targeted toward suburban/moderate/independent voters. Being head of the DNC is going to make seling that line of attack easier. It will also make it somewhat easier for Allen to sell Kaine as the Liberal Party Insider instead of the independent minded Warner-esque executive that Kaine will be trying to portray.

Also, I don't think anyone should be assuming that Obama will or will not carry VA again. McCain didn't contest the state at all in '08, but the balance of power has shifted and VA will be at the top of the target list in '12. I think Obama's numbers in VA were inflated because of this and the reality, especially after the '09-'10 results will make the state a pure toss-up right down to the end.

As for how that affects this race the key question is how much Obama pumps up turnout in Richmond/Norfolk/Fairfax/Arlington vs how much Allen & the GoP POTUS nominee can rack up margins in rural VA. The key battleground though will be the DC exurbs of PW & Loudoun counties.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Two points...
1. The current polling in VA greatly favors Obama

2. The recent census release shows why?  The demographics are now greatly favoring Obama.  There are less rural voters in VA and more urban voters than ever before.

[ Parent ]
Rebutal
1. Current polling is current polling, tough to tell exactly what Virginia voters will think about Obama come this time in '12 and certainly can't judge how he'll do based on polling against a cattlecall of GOPers who haven't even set up shop yet.

2. I'm not sure the census numbers are nearly as cut and dry as you imagine, the 11th has gained a ton of people, mostly in Loudoun & PW counties, while along with SW & Southside VA, Arlington, Richmond & Norfolk have lost population (relative to the  state) so it's not nearly the rural/urban breakdown you imply.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
You just contradicted yourself, notpj......
Above you say Allen can attack Obama and make it stick, and here you say "tough to tell" what voters will think about Obama next year.

Can't have it both ways, either you project about what '12 will look like, or you punt, not both.

My point is correct, which is that tying Kaine to Obama will backfire if Obama wins the state, which right now looks more likely than not.  His numbers are in reelection territory nationwide and in every state he won last time, including Virginia, with no contradictory data.  And the GOP field against him clearly is weak.

And again, no, voters don't care about party jobs.  They just don't.  That Kaine has been DNC Chair doesn't help Allen.  Even if Obama is unpopular and loses the state, then Kaine would--barring Allen running a bad campaign or otherwise proving to be more broadly personally disliked than most people currently believe--lose even if he wasn't DNC Chair.  It just doesn't matter unless you did something acutely bad while in the job.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Targetting Kaine
Not a contradiction at all, Allen can and will attack Kaine by attaching him to the most unpopular parts of the Dem agenda. His being the DNC chair makes that argument far more effective since he is the de facto head of the party. You can also try to paint him as a political insider (we can also debate if that is an effective tactic, but I'm certain it will be one they use, Allen himself being an "insider" makes that attack not just likley, but necessary to cover Allen's own shortcomings as an "outsider").

Here is the biggest thing though, I compeltely disagree that the Senate race will be a mirror image of the POTUS contest, if either side breaks 52% in the two-way presidentail ballot then they'll probably win the Senate seat too, but I don't think one is a proxy for the other and I could easily see Obama winning a slim victory in Virginia, but Allen being narrowly elected to the Senate seat. It's certainly far FAR to early to write off the possibility when we don't know who is running for Senate from the Dem side and we haven't the foggiest clue who the GOP nominee will be (or what the U3/U6 or GDP numbers will be!).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
No one in Virginia or America thinks Kaine is the head of the party......
The leader of the Democratic Party in every voter's mind is Barack Obama, and no one else.

Virginia voters' impressions of Kaine are governed entirely from his term as Governor.

I don't think anyone has ever run an ad attacking someone for having been his/her own party's chairman.  That would be new!  And it would be ineffective, which is why no one has done it before.  Allen won't do it, either.  IF Obama's job approvals are weak in Virginia come spring/summer '12, then Allen might run ads trying to tie Kaine to Obama, but he's not going to mention Kaine as DNC Chair because no one cares about that.  Problem with it is that many Virginia voters aren't even aware Kaine has been DNC Chair; voters don't pay attention to that.  And many who are aware, just shrug.

I agree with you that the Senate and Prez races won't necessarily be exact mirror images, that if both are extremely close then Obama and Allen victories are possible.  But there's not going to be a lot of net crossover, and by and large the performance of the two races will track closely.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
pick a new straw man
I said that being the nominal head of the party will make it easier for Allen to tie Kaine to the most controversial and unpopular parts of the Dem agenda.

VotersThat can make a huge diff w/ indy  

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Follow Up
PJ -

I normally agree with you on what you say but here I have to disagree. McCain did target the state heavily in 2008. There were tons of ads that his team ran and I even had a phone call from someone in his campaign (not sure why but they were wasting their time). At any rate Loudon county went for Obama by 54-46 and PWC 58-42. While 2008 was a great year those two areas aren't exactly hostile to be fighting over. In a FULL electorate I would take my chances with team blue as Loudon and PWC are much more liberal than southside is. Though on the same token liberal tide areas are severely losing population as well so the demographics aren't quite saying southside down NoVa up.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
I don't disagree
I don't recall McCain doing much in the state, while Obama most definetly did. As a matter of degree I think it became a top Dem priority while the GOP was trying to save Ohio & Florida.

My point is that I don't think you can take the '08 results at baseline them to '12 and completely discount the '09 & '10 elections as just "low turnout" blips. Most of all having McDonell as governor will make it much easier and more efficient for the GOP to target the state. I also don't think the demographics in Loudoun & Prince William are nearly as cut and dry as some imply, they area is very much in flux and anyone who says they can acurately predict what they will do in '12 is seling something.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
But you're assumption is itself a weird one
McCain was still contesting New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania heavily when he lost those states by wide margins (particularly Pennsylvania). Does that mean you think those four states will absolutely not be contested at all because of that fact?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
No
I'm saying McCain didn't target the state because he didn't think he needed to, and by the time he realized he was in trouble in Virginia he was already beyond help. I recall most the candidates and surrogates time was going to Ohio, Florida and a few others (and not VA) as he tried to cobble together some kind of workable path to victory.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Bad recollection
It was clearly the pivotal state in June.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/...

[ Parent ]
Also, the emphasis on what party has the Governorship is a foolish one......
This is a problem with the entire Beltway media and campaigns themselves, putting a lot of stock into the fiction that party control of the Governorship matters in winning the state in the Presidential.  There's no correlation there except in states where one party dominates as a rule.  In swing states, look back over however many Presidential elections you want, I doubt there's any connection between who won a relatively closely contested state and whether that candidate's party controlled the Governorship.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
It's a matter of ease
Governor's have far more extensive reach than a senator (or congressman), tons of political staff who know all the people on the ground, this certainly doens't tip the balance, but if you are a non-incumbent like McCain it's far more difficult to set up a campaign apparatus in states like Ohio & Virginia where you don't have the governor running the traps for you, than in states where you do.

This won't affect Obama that much since he already has the remnants of the '08 campaign ready to be funded and activated, but it will make a world of difference for the eventual GOP candidate who will not have to start from scratch.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
McCain did contest the state in 2008, saying otherwise is flat out wrong
The polling was always close and Democrats had been doing fairly well in the state, it was always a given that Virginia was a swing state in 2008.

Plus, polling right now has shown Obama in a good position even given his national numbers are still below what they were in 2008.

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24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Link that polling
When you get a chance. I haven't seen anything else besides the PPPolling numbers from November.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
That's the only polling I've seen too, but then again, I have no reason to question it
Plus, why would Obama's numbers deteriorate from November to February in Virginia relative to the rest of the country? The demographic change in Virginia is real and is making it more friendly towards the Democrats.

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24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I'm not doubting their numbers
but 1 pollster with numbers from 3 months ago aren't exactly the best figures to work with...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
All the data out there has Obama in reelection territory......
Obama's national job approvals and his numbers in every state he won last time that's been polled recently have been very good, and clearly in reelection territory.  He's had an across-the-board rebound.

I don't know why you're so resistant to this.  It's not even debated that Obama has rebounded.

And the PPP Virginia poll is consistent with it, with no contradictory data.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
So it's a slam-dunk for Obama?
I think not, no matter what his approval ratings at this very moment I think they state will be tight as can be and both sides will need to put significant resources and time into it.

If either side does get a significant leg up then they'll probably carry their Senate nominee with them, but I'm betting neither side will break 52%, and in that case who the Dem nominee is and how well they can sell themselves statewide will make all the difference.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Slam-dunk?
Did anybody say that? I think not.
[ Parent ]
Nope, not slam dunk, but Obama's in the driver's seat.....
If the GOP had to pick a nominee today and the election were in, say, August (6 months from now), Obama probably wins the state absent really bad unforeseen events bringing him down.

And no, I don't necessarily think Virginia will be tight.  Obama will lose by high single-digits if his state approvals are in the low 40s, and he'll win the state in a blowout if the GOP nominates a really bad candidate which is increasingly possible, even if not yet necessarily probable.

Point is, right now Obama has rebounded, this in spite of still unemployment at or above 9%, and the GOP field clearly is weak.  That's the information we have.  There's plenty that will happen the next year-plus that we don't know about.  But we go on what we have.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I wish the media would do that
Go on what we have. Cillizza mentioned the PPP polls today but basically poo-poohed them as Democrats using debatable collection methods. The fact they have a record of accuracy means nothing apparently.
[ Parent ]
But you're not even working from any information other than some vague notion that Republicans will "contest" the state this time
Virginia went completely uncontested in 2004 by both sides and it still moved more Democratic that year relative to 2000 (both in an absolute sense and relative to the rest of the country).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
good point
I think McCain not contesting VA until the end is a really good point - definitely inflated Obama's win. I still think he wins VA, but whomever the R nominee is they are going to make VA one of their top priorities.

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Wrong
[ Parent ]
Thank you!
It's a myth that McCain didn't contest the state until very late, and this is just one thing to show it.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I stand corrected
Thanks for the correction

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Kaine
As former Governor who can not be called a Ultr Liberal
Democrat he would be strong candiate.

2012 will not be 2010.Back In December PPP had Obama beating all of the gang of 4(Romney,Palin,Huchabee,Gingrich) In Virginia.

Plus this gets Kaine out of the DNC.

Both Kaine and Perriello
are anti-choice. Not my cup of tea, but it's one of the reasons they both may be more competitive with socially conservative Dems and indies than a generic Dem. They're both economic populists, too.
[ Parent ]
Well
If that's a major issue for you, Perriello is more pro-choice than Kaine. Tom is for legal abortion rights, he just didn't want the health care bill funding it so he did things like vote for Stupak. Given the lean of his district, is that really surprising? Even if he had wanted to support it, it would never have worked politically.

Kaine, on the other hand, has said publicly that he's opposed to abortion.

It's interesting that the two strongest Democratic candidates for a Senate seat in Virginia are Catholic given the state's evangelical bent (I'm saying this as someone who was raised baptist there).

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Then again, Kaine is no more anti-abortion than John Kerry
As far as I can tell, Kaine's view is "I'm personally opposed to abortion but I support a woman's right to choose".

Is there something I'm missing?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
From Wikipedia, with footnotes
"Tim Kaine is personally opposed to abortion but he opposes overturning Roe v. Wade. He supports restrictions on abortion, such as requiring parental consent and banning so-called partial-birth abortions in cases where the woman's life is not at risk."

So I guess we're talking about different shades of gray when discussing Perriello and Kaine. I just feel Perriello as a Senator would be more likely to vote in favor of a piece of legislation that dealt with improving abortion rights or access in some way than Kaine.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Kaine sounds like Casey
It shouldn't be a dealbreaker.
[ Parent ]
Interesting
If you google Perriello and abortion, there's a curious mix of him being rated as pro-life and pro-choice. There's no doubt in my mind he's the latter, just with caveats.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
The ones that rate him pro-choice
are probably mostly intense Republican partisans singling him out for his affirmative vote on health care reform. I bet we could also find thousands of links naming Bart Stupak as a pro-life traitor. But that wouldn't make it true.
[ Parent ]
It's definitely a major issue for me,
but that's not why I brought it up. Strategically thinking, I believe Perriello's position would benefit him, as he'd be able to carry most Obama voters and perhaps some others who are more conservative when it comes to religion and social issues.

I also believe that Perriello gets nuance, so I wouldn't worry that he'd support Draconian anti-choice measures. And on other issues, I think he's amazing. But for good or bad, it's pretty widely accepted that his world view is tied closely to social justice in the Catholic tradition.

http://ncronline.org/news/peop...

[ Parent ]
Perriello
If Kaine stays out (I would assume Tom would defer to him) Perriello would make a great netroots project for the cycle. I'm talking Lamont/Lieberman like focus. Particularly in terms of fundraising because he will need the help against Allen.
The amateur strategist
in me thinks Kaine would be the safer bet. But if Perriello was our candidate, he'd probably be my favorite Senate candidate in the country.
[ Parent ]
Dream scenario
2013 comes around, and Tom Perriello, Chris Murphy, Martin Heinrich, and Gabby Giffords enter the Capitol as newly elected Senators.  

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
I'll drink to that.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Kaine is a safer bet, but Perriello is a proven fundraising machine, too. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Better we get someone who wants it...
...than having Webb half-heartedly campaign.  I think that unless somoene else steps up, it will have to be Kaine, since he is the head of the DNC, and he can't just let that seat go as a credible leader.
Kaine!
Money + more moderate of two...
Perriello raised $3.7 million in 2010
he wouldn't have any trouble with money.
[ Parent ]
I think - at least 15 will be needed
Plus - second argument stands. Virginia is purple, but not California or Massachusetts))))
[ Parent ]
If he runs he will have the money he needs

[ Parent ]
Perriello is hardly a flaming liberal.

[ Parent ]
Moderate-liberal i woukld say
That's good for Charlottesville, for NoVa, but i doubt - whether that's enough for Southside or western part of state... We shall see..
[ Parent ]
Periello
He did very well in Charlottesville & Albemarle county (pulled 80% in C-town), but besides Bedford city he didn't carry anywhere else with more than 5k voters. I don't see him significantly outperforming Obama in rural areas, so there really isn't a geographic advantage to his candidacy, if he runs his talent as a candidate will be what makes a difference.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Rural areas
He wouldn't have won in 2008 if he hadn't outperformed Obama in rural areas: he got more votes than Obama did in the district, and split it 50-50 vs. 51 McCain - 48 Obama. It's not a huge margin, but it's not nothing, especially considering that there were probably some Obama voters who voted for President and left the rest blank. Also to consider: NRA endorsement. Admittedly, Allen's no gun-control fiend himself, but it helps.

17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9
[ Parent ]
Periello has proved he can win votes
he way outperformed in a tough district this last cycle.  If he can energize the base in NoVa and hold margins down in his part of the state that's the core of a winning coalition.  I don't think he'll have fundraising problems with the netroots cred and establishment liberal support he brings.

He's definitely the more exciting candidate from a party-building perspective; I'd love to have an energetic and appealing guy like that in the Senate.

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.

[ Parent ]
Perriello isn't that liberal
And he got 47% in a Republican seat in a Republican year. That isn't to be sniffed at.
[ Parent ]
I know about 47% and value that result
Still Kaine seems better to me. But i will have nothing against both of them running in primary or conention, and surely will prefer any of them to Allen.
[ Parent ]
Periello on the trail
In 2008 McShame carried the district 51-48 and Tom won 50-50 by a handful of votes. In 2010 the mast published poll cedited him with 35% with Hurt at 58%. On Election Day it was 47-51. If Tom could beat the odds in 2008 and massively overperform in 2010 then he has a good shot at the Senate race, especially with Obama poised (as of now) to carry the state by a bigger margin than in 2008. And the guy does have principles and never betrayed his ideals. Which are not 100% progressive, but 90% is good enough....

31, Dem - NM-03 currently in France
[ Parent ]
For ME - 75% would be just fine
I am very moderate Indie)))) Probably more conservative then he is))))
[ Parent ]
Can't find the archives
but a google of

tom perriello progressive punch score

reveals a description of Tom Perriello as the 237th most liberal member of the House, which seems pretty moderate to me.

[ Parent ]
Partial confirmation
Per this bit of cache

http://webcache.googleusercont...

Perriello doesn't even appear in the first 205 most liberal members of the house for the '09-'10 congress.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but Viginia as a state isn't liberal either
As i said - we shall see. I was (and IS) very high on Warner and would prefer candidate of that type - very well known in state, generally moderate, well-financed and so on..
[ Parent ]
Exactly my point
#237 in the House seems pretty moderate to me.

Speaking of Warner, I do think an "out of the box" pick would be better, such as Steve Case (AOL CEO).

[ Parent ]
May be
I know too little about him to make solid judgment...
[ Parent ]
Boucher?
If you want to break out a Warner mold I think Boucher would do well, I don't think he'd make it out of a primary, but if he was the nominee he'd do much better than Obama in southside & coal country and only slightly underperform Obama in Richmond/Norfold & NoVA.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Boucher is a little old

[ Parent ]
I thought about him
and fully agree. But i agree with "he wouldn't make it out of a primary" as well)))). Pro-coal (and "moderate" on choice) isn't especially popular position among Democratic primary electorate
[ Parent ]
Focus on ideology badly overstated, it's not that important. What IS important...
...that makes Kaine stronger is that he's run and won statewide twice (both L.G. and Gov), and as a popular Richmond Mayor before that, he's overall a proven repeated vote-getter in the critical urban crescent.

Perriello is unfamiliar outside his district except among Democratic activists.  But that's far from fatal, he's a great campaigner and a fundraising machine.

Coattails will matter a lot in Virginia next year.

And Larry Sabato (I mean the nationally respected pundit, not the blogger "Not Larry Sabato") put himself on the line today with tweets arguing that Obama winning or losing the state decides the Senate outcome so long as Dems nominate a competent candidate.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Kaine can definitely win. BUT as I stated below, he didn't leave office as incredibly popular. Perriello may have lower name recognition but he's an impressive fund-raiser with a ton of energy.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Slam Dunk
This is hardly a slam dunk for the GOP, I have to say.  I'm not at all convinced that George Allen would be the best candidate (part of that may be because I just don't like him), but he does seem to have the inside track right now.  I think a fresh candidate who was not too far on the fringe would be better, but I suspect all of Allen's challengers will be way out there.  I almost wish Eric Cantor wasn't majority leader because he'd be a great candidate.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
Allen is a lot like Dino Rossi
High name rec gets him to 45%, 46% easy, but loads of baggage makes it a lot harder to get him to 50%.  I'm convinced that if the GOP had nominated a random teabagger in WA like Clint Didier, they would have won that seat.  Similarly, Allen is a deceptively strong choice that will hurt them down the line.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
There is no way Didier could have carried Washington state
that stayed blue even in a Republican year and is trending bluer with every presidential election. You are right about Allen, though. He won't get over a 45% hurdle in part because independents don't like him any better than they like Rossi and, like Rossi, he has too much baggage to carry.

I live in Washington but have extended family in Lynchburg and Charlottesville.

I say Kaine has the best shot.

[ Parent ]
What?
There's no way that the Republicans could have picked up Murray's seat unless they ran McKenna. Even then it would be very close. Clint Didier would be lucky to get 45 or 46 percent of the vote in Washington against Murray.  
[ Parent ]
We saw plenty of examples of this at the House level
A number of candidates won not because people liked them (Blake Farenthold?  Renee Elmers?) but because their very unknown, ordinary-person ethos allowed voters to see them as generic protest candidates against the status quo.  That's what happens with an angry electorate.

Rossi missed out on that angry electorate tide, I think, because he was too well-known and had too much baggage.  No one in their right mind, after two gubernatorial runs, could imagine that Rossi was Mr. Smith going to Washington.  It thus became not a "People vs. Murray" race, but a "Rossi vs. Murray" race, and Murray wins that every time.

I see the same thing shaping up with Allen.  Run an unknown Republican -- Del. Bob Marshall, for instance -- an an angry electorate will pick them to stick it to the Dem party.  But Allen isn't just a "stick-it-to-them" kind of candidate.  People start to think about macaca, about the moose head in the mailbox, about the foul racist things he's said, about how corporate he is (like Rossi), and he will have some trouble.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
No, your analysis is wrong. The difference in the examples you cite is...
...House versus Senate.  That's all it is.  Voters pay a *lot* more attention to Senate races than House races, there are more TV ads and more attention paid and received.  So bad candidates are exposed.  In House races bad candidates slip through because no one but activists and junkies and a few political reporters pay any attention at all before the last month.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
That's true to a point
However, look at how close some of the tea party candidates came in Senate races, particularly in NV and CO.  They lost there only because Angle was a walking train wreck and Bennet was an exceptional candidate.

Didier didn't have any of those problems -- he was a poor candidate but not nearly as poor as Angle, and Murray has never been a particularly dominating opponent.  I  am pretty sure he would have won.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
disagree
Washington at D+5 is more blue than D+1 Nevada or D+0 Colorado, and Murray was a 3-term incumbent with decent approval numbers. In contrast Reid's approvals were lousy and Bennet was an appointed replacement.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
I hope you're teasing, the notion that Didier could've beaten Murray is just laughable......
Didier IS Sharron Angle, Ken Buck, Christine O'Donnell, Joe Miller...he was Washington state's version of those people, just not a successful one in the primary.

Didier was and is, in fact, a walking train wreck.  And that he couldn't even compete in the primary against a proven loser proves the point.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Didier is worse than Buck. Even conservative Republicans walked
from him in droves and Washington is a very blue state. I don't think even McKenna could have defeated Murray and he really is the only top tier Republican in Washington state.  
[ Parent ]
what about Sam Reed?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sam Reed is hated by the base.
After his even-handedness during the painstaking 2004 recounts (unlike a certain Katharine Harris back in 2000) which resulted in a Gregoire victory, the base has disowned him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
This'll be a close one no matter what, but, yeah, I'd still bet on the Democrat
The thing is, I think Webb would've overperformed Obama's margin, while Kaine/Periello are rather dependent on a strong performance atop the ticket. So, as long as Obama again carries the state, the U.S. Senate candidate should be OK. And, I mean, I suspect Virginia should be a rather simple hold for Obama, that is unless his approval drops sharply and Huckabee is the nominee.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
I don't actually view this as bad news for Team Blue
Unlike with Kent Conrad's retirement, we have a strong bench here. I think either Kaine or Perriello would be great  candidates (I favor the later by a slight margin, just because I admired his congressional campaign last year). More importantly, as some of the commentators have suggested above, Allen is a paper tiger.

I liked Webb, but I'd rather not have him in there is he's going to campaign halfheartedly.  

VA
I agree that the Dems would be in good shape here with either Kaine or Perriello. Perriello has already shown that he can avoid losing too badly in rural areas even in the worst possible year, and I get the impression that he'd do ok in swingy suburbs.

41, Ind, CA-05
does webb has presidential aspirations?
I know he wanted to be veep, but does he see running someday, either in 2016, or 2020?  if so, the senate could certainly help his i 4 year term governorship, which would lead him towards the seat, unless he thinks biden's going to get dumped and he'll be veep in 2012.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
I'm guessing he's probably done with politics.

[ Parent ]
Very much doubt it
He isn't a spring chicken either.
[ Parent ]
i'm sure it's obvious and was pointed out
but i meant KAINE.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
also, the caps was emphasis, not shouting.
on the new DK format, would it be possible for underline?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Ah right
No, I doubt that too.
[ Parent ]
: (
A single term for Webb; he's one of my favorites from the class of '06 along with McCaskill.

Perriello!

Republican Candidates
Will Webb's departure cause any new Republicans to enter the race?

I could see Lt. Gov Bill Bolling entering to avoid having to run against Cooch for gov. in 2013.  As for Cuccinelli himself, I don't think he can leave the AG spot until his health care lawsuit is done, which likely won't be before 2012.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

what's bolling's deal?
he left the governors race in 2009, senate in 2008 and 2010 and probabl the 2013 one. i get 2008, but the other races? is he too meek to challenge a more established republican?  is he young enough to bide his time?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Not privy to his thinking, but I can guess
2008: No one wanted to run against Mark Warner
2009: Strong rumors that he had an agreement with McDonnell that McDonnell would run in 2009 and Bolling would have a clear shot in 2013.
2010: No statewide offices.

I guess his decision for the Senate race will depend on whether he thinks Cooch will honor McDonnell's promise to give Bolling a clear shot for gov. in 2013.  Wikipedia says he's only 53, so he doesn't have to be in too big of a rush to move up.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Term Limit in VA
Governor & Lt. Governor area both limited to 1 term, this is not the case for the AG. Not saying Cooch will defer to Bolling, but Bolling HAS to run somewhere else after '13 and Cooch could run for re-election and bid his time (vs risking a primary).

My sense is that Cooch wants to be the US Attorney General for the next GOP President...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Bolling isn't term limited
only gov is. He's already in his second term as Lt. Gov.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Holy Crap
LG isn't limited to 1 term, the Governor is - sorry about that.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Point still stands, I think
Nobody wants to be a three-term Lt Gov.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Yes
That his profile is so low despite winning the LG slot twice tells you all you need to know about Bolling and LGers in general.

The question really to me is what does Cooch do? Does he even WANT to be Governor? Seems to be doing a fine job focusing on "His" issues as AG, assuming we take his motives at face value, what is the advantage of moving from HCR to transportation infrastructure as the focus of your job?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
The state GOP wanted to clear the field and avoid a primary in 09
so he agreed to stay on for another term as Lt. Gov in exchange for a sort-of agreement that it would be his turn to be gov in 2013. As for 08, nobody could beat Mark Warner so there was no point in running there. Honestly, though, Bolling is a totally pedestrian personality. Like the T-Paw of Virginia, only without any real accomplishments to speak of. I can't see him winning a Republican primary against anyone like Allen or Cucinelli or McDonnell or even Generic Tea Party Dude.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Bolling is an empty suit
He lucked out in 2005, squeaking by Leslie Byrne with a 1% victory, and rode McDonnell's coattails in 2009. Prior to that he was a pretty faceless State Senator from the Richmond exurbs. I don't think he's actually done a single noteworthy thing in his career.
[ Parent ]
Bolling never "left" those races......
Bolling never filed papers or raised a dime for any of those.

He wants to be Governor, not Senator, which puts him on a collision course with Cuccinelli in 2013.  The question is whether he gives up that hunt and runs again for reelection, biding his time once more.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Bob Marshall and Corey Stewart are thinking about it
Marshall is a far far right wing member of the state House of Delegates - always way out on social issues.

In 2008 he challenged Gilmore for the Senate nomination, and came very close to beating him at the state convention.

He has publicly said he is considering a run, and that Allen's presence in the race wouldn't deter him.  The fact that it is a primary is worse for him than if it was a convention, where he has shown he can compete against a better known candidate.

Corey Stewart is the Prince William County Board Chair, and has made huge local headlines going with political immigrant bashing. He's publicly said that George Allen was a "mediocre" Senator and seems pretty serious about making the race.

But both of these guys have been looking at the race without regard to Webb's decision. I'm not aware of any prominent Virginia Republicans likely to jump into the race because of Webb's departure.

Obviously Allen would benefit if Ratke, Marshall, and Stewart all ran, splitting the same extreme far right vote - making the far right Allen seem moderate by comparison. But if the field narrows to Allen vs. just one right winger, his primary chances would look a lot worse.

[ Parent ]
Periello Keeping "options open"
"In the wake of the news that Sen. Jim Webb will not seek another term, ex-Rep Tom. Perriello's 2010 finance director Anna Scholl emails "Tom has not made any decisions yet about the future and is keeping his options open."

Translation? Waiting for a call from Kaine...


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

Hey Evan Bayh
See, Evan Bayh, this is how you retire from the Senate, with plenty of time for Team Blue to find a great candidate.

As a former governor who's won statewide already, Kaine must be considered the stronger of the two--and polling backs that up. Perreillo's 51-47% sophomore performance in a R+5 is impressive ... still, it's only 1 of 11 VA districts, meaning his base is less than a tenth of the state.

Connolly is good, but he may find his appeal limited to NoVA, and I fear he could underperform downstate. Glenn Nye is kinda meh, and would probably be better off at the State Department for a spell anyway. But I think the general consensus is right on: Kaine is Plan A, with Perreillo a very solid Plan B.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Nye
Absolutely no to Glenn Nye! I am no purity troll but even someone like State Senator Chap Petersen would be much better than Nye.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
by the numbers...
VA-11 is significantly larger that the 5th, the overall difference is somewhere around 150k, plus Connolly has run ads in the DC area so voters in Loudoun & PW county have seen him before whereas Periello has only run in Charlottesville market, which is very small, and he really didn't do particularly well outside of Charlottesville City and Albemarle county in '10 so Connolly has a better track record of doing well with suburan/exurban swing voters than Periello.


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Sort of in defense of Evan Bayh
I think one of the reasons he got out the way he did was because he wanted to make sure the Republicans had to stick with the three (comparatively) weak candidates they already had. I think the idea was to make sure that Dems could pick a strong candidate as well.

Or maybe it was to screw Baron Hill, as some have speculated. Who knows?  

[ Parent ]
The problem with Bayh
It's so easy to paint him as a prevaricating, formless mass that on occasions such as his retirement it's difficult to figure out whether he actually had some sort of plan or whether he was just being incredibly indecisive for weeks on end right up until the filing deadline.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Beltway punditory is tiresome
http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

The last battle always indicates what happens next apparently. McDonnell wins and Dems lose House seats and because the state is traditionally Republican Warner, Kaine and Obama winning the state apparently means nothing. Also, the polls be damned. Sigh. Vichy quote in there too from some "Dem" strategist.

 

Vichy?
Are the Nazis conquering France again?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Not that I'm aware
Though some "Democrats" in VA are already waving the white flags.
[ Parent ]
Quote
"This seat is going to flip," predicted one veteran Democratic operative familiar with the Commonwealth's politics. "The bench is so shallow."

In these instances I usually assume Doug Schoen.

[ Parent ]
Either that or
Wilder is off his meds.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Why would this "Democratic operative"
say something like that?  It serves no useful purpose whatsoever; in fact, it does the opposite.  Of course, this operative won't go on record so they can keep raking in money from all of their clients.  I can't think of a similar situation where a Republican consultant summarily conceded a race in what could very well be a tossup open seat contest.
[ Parent ]
Depends who he is
I bet the reporter alreay knew what the guy would say from prior discussions and called him to get a quote that fit in with the story angle he was shooting for.

The guy probalby believes the seat is lost, but certainly isn't willing to put his name behind somethng so defeatist, and almost certainly didn't stop for a milisecond to think about what the PR affect giving the quote would have (which in truth is zero, who relly cares what an unnamed operative says in a quick turnaround blog piece that everyone will forget by this time next week.)

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
he's either bad at his job
or considering switching to the republicans.  Aren't there still some old time conservadems around here?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Hmmm
Most consultants in my experience make their living selling snake oil to cure diseases that don't exist, thus the perfect person to call when you want someone to say Webb's retirement means DOooooooooooMMMMMMMMM!

Here is the rest of the quote "...unless someone is smart enough to hire me, I can take a lemon of a bench and make the best damned lemonade you ever tasted. By the way if you hear about anyone thinking about running my number is 571-555-1212..."

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
A more competent commentary is from Larry Sabato......
As I've commented elsewhere on SSP today, Sabato tweeted today that so long as Dems nominate a competent candidate, we win if Obama wins the state, and lose to Allen if Obama loses the state.

I think that's right.  As Obama's Virginia outcome goes, so goes the Senate seat...so long as we don't have a Creigh Deeds clone for a candidate.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Depends how close it is
If either side breaks 52% I'd say he's right, but the state could very well be much much closer. That's where a small difference in talent, geography or lack of racial slurs could make the difference.

For instance someone like Boucher would likely significantly outperform Obama in the 5th, 9th & 6th CD, but would also not do nearly as well as Obama does in the 8th, 11th & 3rd (both in percentage and just vote dropoff).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Geography, like ideology, is badly overrated as a factor......
Boucher would outperform Obama in the 9th, but likely nowhere else.  Obama wildly outperformed previous Democratic Presidential candidates in all other Virginia CDs.  He actually won Forbes' district, and lost VA-05 by just 3 points--underperformed Perriello by just a couple.

And there's not going to be any dropoff for Boucher in the 8th, 11th, or 3rd; the Obama voters will vote for Boucher.  It's a U.S. Senate race, there are not going to be many undervotes for that.  In 2008 the Senate race had only 80K fewer votes statewide than Prez, with 2.723 million Prez votes and 2.643 million Senate votes.  Warner outperformed Obama by 12 points statewide, but even in majority-black VA-03 he outperformed Obama by 6 points with only about 8K undervotes in the Senate race with 304K total Presidential votes cast.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
An extremely tight state contest
for president, even if Obama loses, could still lead to a Dem senate win. My guess is that the senate candidate gets a couple points more of the white vote than Obama.
[ Parent ]
That's beyond dumb.
Have those dupes forgotten about Kaine!?  This isn't Misssissippi!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I agree with Jensen
[ Parent ]
Again where is Lee Atwater when you need him
Doooooooooooommmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
If people have never seen the documentary on Atwater
It's really, really good.

http://www.boogiemanfilm.com/

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Actually
I was refering to user leeatwater who got into it with user conspiracy. Their climatic final confrontation (before leeatwater got the SSP Boot) was over giving up swing states (Missouri in particular) and even involves some fun Nevil Chamberlain accusations that fit really well with the Vichy comments above.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
This is what I suspect I will miss when we move to Kos
The fact that you can reference a disagreement between two users and I know exactly what you're talking about.  
[ Parent ]
Haha
Well, my point still stands. I've always inconsistently read comments and am not familiar with every user of recent times. Only in the last few months did I get into actually commenting.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Well
I would say Perriello has a far greater upside as a candidate than Kaine. When Kaine exited the governorship he had middling numbers for approval; he really only won the governorship because he was riding Mark Warner's administration's coattails and because he was facing a guy who was as crazy as Ken Cuccinelli (former AG Jerry Kilgore).

Meanwhile, Perriello only lost an increasingly red district in a GOP-wave year by less than 5%. He did this not by tilting right but by embracing the tough votes he made in the House in favor of health care, stimulus, and cap and trade.

Full disclosure: I campaigned for and eventually interned for former Congressman Perriello. He's a hell of a guy.  

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Kaine exited quite popular, and in fact among Democratic Governors...
...had some of the best numbers in the country in 2009.  It was the heart of the recession as measured by joblessness and public fear, our party already was heading south in approval numbers nationwide.  And with Dems in power in most places, our party took the hit for that.  And Kaine in spite of that was above-water the whole time in all but one outlying poll.

Kaine is in good shape, and he's a proven winner statewide twice.

Perriello would be next-best, I think.  The Beltway campaign pundits are in their typical mode of looking at candidates' viability exclusively through an ideological lens, and they're poo-poohing Perriello on Twitter because of that.  But that's a foolish mistake, Perriello way outperformed expectations last year, and is a proven strong campaigner and strong fundraiser.

That said, Kaine having proved himself statewide already, and still being well-liked, makes him the best choice.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Seriously, is Chris Cilizza...
... NOT one of the worst DC pundits? I never feel remotely enlightened by his "analysis" which is usually just pale, superficial regurgitations of Beltway CW. And not even particularly informed CW - usually it's the soft-type of CW, the kind you get from people who are involved in politics but not particularly down-in-the-weeds.  
[ Parent ]
Kaine or Perriello.
The latter if not the former.

Now, notpjorourke, putting your dislike for Webb aside, in what ways does Webb compare to Kaine as a candidate?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Webb
Don't get my critism of Webb wrong, I actually kind of like the guy on a personal level, but I take serious issue with the manor in which he conducted himself as a Senator. Being the Senate version of Porter Goss (who once missed a floor vote, WHILE ON THE FLOOR!!!) is not acceptable. There is so much to the job besides just focusing on your pet projects/issues.

That said, I think Webb would have been a disaster as a candidate, Politics 101: Never run for an office you don't want. He would have sleep walked his way through it, not doing the leg work and fundraising and eventually would have been swamped by Allen.

Will Kaine run? I'm not sure, but if he does the DNSC better hope it's because he wants to be a Senator, not becuase Murray or Obama or Moran guilted him into it. If that is the case Dems would be much better off with someone like Periello who will attack a Senate race like a starving dog going for a fresh steak.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but
how is Kaine as a campaigner in your opinion?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I wasn't in VA in '05
So I can't say from experience, it certainly was a very good time to be a Dem gubernatorial candidate in Virginia (Bush in the WH post Katrina & coming off the term of highly popular Mark Warner & running against Kilgore).

We'll see if he even gets into the race, I'm sure he coudln't be worse than Webb would have been, but like I said - best to pick someone who WANTS it, not someone who's doing it because they "have to"

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Patty Murray Needs to Call Tim Kaine!
A lot of people have hit it elsewhere but I wanted to add my two cents as a VA Dem.

Overall I am not too surprised by Webb retiring. I wished that he would have run again but it isn't a sure loss (like when Byron Dorgan retired last cycle) or a great gain (like when Chris Dodd retired). Having had my first real campaign work volunteering for Webb in 2006 and having met him a few times I will definitely miss him and wish him well. That said, Virginia will be a very hotly contested state in 2012 so whoever runs is going to really benefit from this. I agree with what DCCyclone said about Sabato's tweet; as Obama goes so goes the Democratic Senate nominee. I do believe that the demographics of the state Combined with a toxic Republican candidate in George Allen (right now I am assuming that he wins the primary) whoever the Dem is they start with a floor of at least 40%. Allen is too polarizing to win in a blowout.

Top candidates in my view are:

1. Tim Kaine - 2 statewide elections and he can raise money. I think he'd beat George Allen and honestly people could care less about the DNC. He was non-controversial and has a high name ID. If Patty Murray hasn't called him, she is about to.

2. Tom Perriello - I think that he is best served deferring to Kaine on the Senate and if VA-05 gets a more favorable demographic (doubtful) then he should challenge Hurt. Otherwise 2013 is his for the taking. I don't see him having a hard time raising money and he would instantly get a lot of 3rd party money dumped on his behalf. He can build a name ID in NoVa and would fit in very well. He is only 36 so his time is not up. Having volunteered countless weekends for him, he is the real deal and no doubt would make a great Senator but his time will come.

3. There is a clear drop off here but the idea of Rick Boucher and Glenn Nye don't excite me at all. I'd prefer someone younger like State Senator Chap Petersen but he'd have to drop his Senate re-election race most likely and start raising money. Hard to envision that scenario.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

Scott Kleeb
All this talk about Tom Perriello reminds me of Scott Kleeb, who way outperformed in a 2006 Nebraska House race. The netroots then used that to tout him as a NE-Sen candidate in 2008, but of course he got trounced by Mike Johanns.

The fact that Perriello did well in two House races does not mean that he'll do well statewide. He isn't known statewide and charisma/firing up activists isn't as powerful as it is in a smaller House race.

Except
We're talking about a state that President Obama actually won in 2008 whereas Nebraska, despite the electoral vote gained from NE-02, was never on the radar for statewide victory.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Plus
George Allen is no Mike Johanns.
[ Parent ]
I'm aware that VA is more friendly to Dems
My point was that talents that translate into one successful House race may not translate into statewide viability.

Look at Brad Ellsworth from my state as another example. I thought he would win until the general election polling proved to be consistently bad for him in the summer.

George Allen has a national base (he was briefly thought of as a good 2008 POTUS candidate) and has waged many successful campaigns in Virginia. Tom Perriello isn't in his league, even though many of you (mostly non-Virginians I presume) like him for his political courage.

Tim Kaine is, in my view, the only candidate who has the experience, the statewide profile, and the support to take down George Allen.

[ Parent ]
Ron Johnson anyone?

[ Parent ]
That's my point
Novice candidates beating seasoned veterans is a rare thing in politics. For every Ron Johnson or Paul Wellstone there are a thousand Scott Kleebs emailing their resumes to K Street lobbying firms.
[ Parent ]
Kay Hagan?
Webb himself in 2005? You make it sound like Allen is some behemof of a candidate. He is not.
[ Parent ]
George Allen
Allen's main problem is that he's pock-marked by his loss in '06 and his Macaca episode. I don't seem him easily over-coming those against either Kaine or Perriello. However, I don't think Perriello and Kaine would bring up the incident themselves, kind of like Webb did in '06. Just let the outside groups hammer away at Allen.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Massive difference
That was Kleeb performing well in a Republican district in a Democratic year. Like Ed Martin performing well in a Democratic district in a Republican year. Perriello ran an unapologetic progressive campaign in a Republican district in a Republican year and got 47% when left for dead long before election day. That means something.
[ Parent ]
And then he performed badly in a Democrat year
My point is this- it's fallacious to say that "if he won in a district much more conservative than the state as a whole, then he'll easily win statewide!". For instance, his strong support among Democrats in that district may not translate to strong support among Democrats in NOVA or Richmond.

Maybe Tom Perriello would win, maybe not, but IMHO he'd be an underdog against George Allen.

[ Parent ]
No, the point is Kleeb is a silly comparison......
Kleeb has never been elected to anything.  Perriello actually won.  And then Perriello lost only narrowly in an awful year for his party when everyone thought Perriello would get crushed.

Winning itself matters, it establishes credibility with voters.  Kleeb never did that.

Besides that, Perriello has proven campaigning and fundraising skills that few have, that you can't teach, and that matter at any level.  Kleeb, for as highly touted as he was in the netroots, didn't quite live up to it.

It's quite the random thing to look at a couple isolated data points and pretend you have an analogy.  That's not valid.

No doubt Allen would lead Perriello in initial polling, and actually does in the PPP poll, but it's a narrow lead to begin with, and Perriello has skills nad a profile Webb can't match--and Webb beat Allen already.  Perriello outperformed Webb in VA-05 itself, getting 47% in a much worse year for Dems than when Webb got 45% there--and both in midterms.

No doubt Kaine is stronger than Allen, but the difference is Kaine would have at least the edge over Allen at the outset that Allen might have over Perriello; I don't think Kaine/Allen is a true tossup in a Presidential year with Obama aggressive in the state.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
So, superficial analogies are valid only when they support your conclusion?
It's quite the random thing to look at a couple isolated data points and pretend you have an analogy.  That's not valid.

Perriello outperformed Webb in VA-05 itself, getting 47% in a much worse year for Dems than when Webb got 45% there--and both in midterms.

Now, there's nothing wrong with anecdotal correlations. We can't be all be Nate Silvers and run sophisticated regression models. But we need to do so with the understanding that the large number of confounding variables makes all analysis of this sort pretty sketchy. There are different candidates, races for different offices, different campaign strategies, etc. The point about Kleeb is important not so much that because suggests that Perriello's success was a fluke or restricted to a certain type of race, but to be cautious about extrapolating from a single data point.

[ Parent ]
It's superficially obvious there's a big difference......
The data points I cited are several, not one, and also about Perriello himself, compared to the current incumbent, of the very seat we're talking about.

That's a far cry from bringing up Scott Kleeb, of all people, in relation to VA-Sen.

Point is Perriello is a proven vote-getter in a red area, even in a bad year.  Therefore, belittling his chances against Allen in a Presidential year are a big mistake.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It's superficially obvious there's a big difference......
The data points I cited are several, not one, and also about Perriello himself, compared to the current incumbent, of the very seat we're talking about.

That's a far cry from bringing up Scott Kleeb, of all people, in relation to VA-Sen.

Point is Perriello is a proven vote-getter in a red area, even in a bad year.  Therefore, belittling his chances against Allen in a Presidential year are a big mistake.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I only count one piece of hard data - the votes he received
"Good campaigning" is subjective and can be redundant (i.e. if you're saying he's a good campaigner because he got a respectable number of votes). He's also apparently a good fundraiser, but you didn't tell me his numbers or how relatively good they were (compared to Kleeb, say).

Yes, they were about Perriello himself, but the reason for the Kleeb analogy is that there isn't any data point available for what we're interested in (how Perriello would fare in a Senate race), so looking at how other races turned out gives us valuable information. It's similar to if you claimed that since Candidate A got 47% in one election and 49% in the second election, he is therefore likely to get 51% of the vote in the next election. If I point out how Candidate B got 47%, 49% and then 45% in another set of elections, yes, it's only one data point and those races may differ in a fundamental ways. But at least it's a counter-example against specious extrapolation. It's not much of a counter-example to say that "Yeah, well, Candidate A got 49% of the vote in election #2! I'm referring to the actual incumbent here, so your analogy is weak! Also, Candidate A is a fighter, whereas Candidate B wasn't [probably because he did poorly in his third election]."

Now, I emphasise that I do think that Periello's performance matters. I just don't think it has more than a modest amount of predictive power.    

[ Parent ]
In Perriello's case "good campaigning" is objective, not subjective......
He's universally regarded a strong campaigner.  His personal presentation, his poise and polish without coming off as plastic, his field campaign, and his big fundraising ($3.7 million last cycle, a lot for a House race), are the metrics, and everyone familiar with Virginia politics is awestruck by Perriello's skills.  He just happens to live in a really tough House district for Democrats.

And at least one Republican operative agrees, per Politico today:  http://www.politico.com/mornin...

Key graf:

THE CASE FOR PERRIELLO - A smart Republican e-mails 10 reasons why Tom Perriello would be strong - maybe stronger than Tim Kaine - for the Democrats: "(1) He'd raise tons of national money; (2) Enviros and unions would come in huge with IEs for him; (3) His '09 votes will be old news two years from now if not a positive. If the president is strong - and I think he will be - Perriello will be strong; (4) He is an incredibly smart and talented pol. He makes a great first impression; (5) It's a small amount of votes, but he negates Allen's crossover support in their shared Charlottesville home base and picks up crossover support in Southside; (6) He outworks everyone; (7) He looks like the future, Allen looks like the past; (8) In two races he should have lost by 20 points, he either won or narrowly lost in a district that is significantly more GOP than the state as a whole; (9) He is the kind of Dem whom NoVa will like; (10) Through TV, he is known in the Richmond [designated market area], the Charlottesville DMA and the Lynchburg/Roanoke DMAs - combined, the same percentage of the state as the DC DMA."


43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Against a guy with sky high favorables
That doesn't describe Allen who already lost once. I do agree however that Perriello would start as an underdog though he only trails by five when hardly anybody knows him statewide. Also, I think you meant "Democratic" year.
[ Parent ]
How much effort/resources were put behind Kleeb in '08 or Ellsworth in '10?
Yes, there's similarities, but given that both candidates were basically left to their own devices by fall (better offensive opportunities in Kleeb's case, and triage in Ellsworth's) it's not a fair comparison. If Perriello is the candidate, he's one of the party's top priorities this cycle, and that's got nothing to do with his popularity with the netroots/on the ground activists/etc.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Neither raised much money either
As I mentioned earlier Perriello would become perhaps the netroots top priority outside of the presidential race. In terms of fundraising that is massive.
[ Parent ]
Consider Mike Signer
Another name to consider is former Lt. Gov. candidate, Mike Signer. I actually think his resume would play well in a Virginia federal race given his national security background. Plus you have to consider he is young, energetic, has already made the rounds in VA and he won't have a voting record for the GOP to pick apart.
Err
I volunteered for Signer in '09 and although I like him, this would be too big of a step in my opinion. He should have been able to give Jody Wagner a bigger push for the Lt. Gov nomination and probably should be given another look in '13. Or maybe he should run for the State House or State Senate.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
I don't think getting crushed in a primary for Lt. Governor is a stepping stone to the Senate.

[ Parent ]
^^^^^^THIS. And that it has to be said out loud made me laugh. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
From Perriello spokesman:
Tom wants to thank Senator Webb for his populist leadership that, no doubt, will continue in countless forms in the years ahead. Tom is returning tomorrow from some overseas work related to Egypt and the Darfur peace talks, and looks forward to talking to folks at home, and connecting with Kaine, Warner and other Virginians to figure out the best way forward for the party as we fight to protect this crucial seat.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Translation:
"Tim Kaine and I will decide which of us will run by playing a game of rock-paper-scissors, Mark Warner will be the judge" :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
List of Thoughts on VA-Sen:
Why can't any of the big stuff happen I am in front of a computer? Damn corporate people expecting me to actually work.

Anyway, here's a list of thoughts, in no particular order, about all sorts of things and people related to the Virginia Senate race. I'm sure I will have more, but for now:

1. Right now, my gut tells me that we want Kaine as the nominee. He's a former governor and lieutenant governor, so he's known statewide, and while his base of Richmond isn't going to add anything, perhaps it will help us by maximizing turnout. He's also socially moderate or conservative enough that it becomes an asset rather than a liability, since it will give him an in with those outside the base while not alienating the base. But Perriello--man, I like this guy. I don't always agree with him, but I like the fact that he's a proud Democrat and managed to almost win in a very tough race. I have no doubt that if he lost, barring the type of year that is somehow worse than 2010, it'd be by the slimmest of slim margins. He's probably got more room to grow than Kaine and will probably excite the base more. I could go back and forth and probably will for a long time, but I'd be happy with either of them. That said, I kind of want Kaine to run and Perriello to find a House district to run in and then take over Mark Warner's Senate seat when he runs for president and probably wins.

2. I don't see why Kaine's tenure as head of the DNC will mean much of anything. He hasn't don't anything remotely controversial as far as I can remember. He hasn't taken any votes or been associated in any significant way with what Democrats in congress have been associated with. I don't see any sort of real danger to Kaine from this--at least none beyond the usual stuff thrown at Democrats. People seem to have a positive impression of him from his time as governor and lieutenant governor, and that's what will matter most. People will also remember Allen's time as governor and senator, but it's probably much more vague and/or negative, since the thing he will be most remembered for, at least at first, is making a racist comment and being fascinated with nooses.

3. I don't understand Allen's appeal to moderate and Independent voters. He might not be toxic to them, but unless we are seeing a massively conservative electorate like we saw this year, with a lot of right-leaning Independents, I'd say the Democrat will probably have the edge. In a lot of races, you want to tack towards the center, but if Allen or the other Republican candidate does that, I don't see it working. That'll probably enrage the base. Perhaps the Republican candidate will be skilled enough to walk the fine line between talking about cutting government spending while not seeming too anti-government, but I imagine that any of these guys who goes full on Teabagger will open themselves up to easy attacks that will sink them in upper echelon areas. Meanwhile, the Democrat can talk about nothing but deficit reduction, bettering public education and public universities, and lowering health care costs, with tax reform added in every other day.

4. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the low hanging fruit has already been picked, but if the numbers I've seen are any indication, there are around 278,000 unregistered black voters in the state. If 2012 is like 2008, the Obama campaign will place a heavy emphasis on registration and mobilization. In this particular case, I think whichever black voters are pulling the lever for Obama are doing the same for the Democratic senate candidate. We are talking about a large and possibly fairly easily expandable pool of voters that the Republicans won't have access to, especially if the candidate is George Allen. I don't imagine the situation being that much better with Asians or Hispanics.

5. McCain absolutely did contest Virginia. Perhaps he started working the state later than Obama and perhaps he didn't have as strong a ground game, but he didn't didn't ignore the state. He spent less than Obama spent there, but I think that was the case for every state, simply because he didn't have as much money as Obama had.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Responses
1. Yes we want Tim Kaine to run. He can beat George Allen especially in a Presidential turnout year. I love Perriello but I think we would be better off with Kaine. Kaine is 53 and Perriello is 36. Perriello still has plenty of time and a great future. If Kaine says "no" than I think Perriello will get some solid pressure to run. He is a good fundraiser and no doubt would be able to get a lot of votes in NoVa. Running with Obama is going to help his cause.

2. Nobody cares about who is head of the DNC. Kaine has no crazy comments and Allen is remembered by one word "macacca". It spikes up his negatives tremendously.

3. Allen is toxic. I really don't know why the VA GOP wants to trot him out but putting someone who is equally as conservative as him but doesn't carry his baggage would be in their best interest. Glad they won't listen to me.

4. Where do you get these numbers? Most of the voters that they need to register are going to be recent transplants (read young professionals like me though I have been here a while) in Northern Virginia. They may not necessarily be African-American but they will likely lean Democratic. This was their plan in 2008 and will be the same plan in 2012.

5. Agree, anyone who says that he didn't contest is the state is incorrect. I live here and saw plenty of McCain ads.


28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Responses to your responses:
1. I agree. Basically, Kaine should be lobbied heavily to run. At worst, Perriello figures out something to do until he runs for statewide office, like the governorship in the future, or at best he changes his mind and runs for the House again. I doubt Perriello would not defer to Kaine, so that's not an issue.

2. I agree.

3. Once again, I agree. I don't think he's as toxic as Gilmore, but he's probably got a much lower ceiling than a lot of Democrats in the state, particularly since he'll probably have to go heavy on the Teabagger nonsense.

4. These are Census figures from 2008. Table 4b. They are probably different now, but not that much different. If new ones are available, I haven't found them. It's a statewide total, and perhaps there's some difference amongst black voters throughout the state, but I imagine any sort of relative advantage would be instantly erased, and then some, if Allen is the candidate.

http://www.census.gov/populati...

5. In some ways, the amount of money he spent is even more incredible when you factor in the previous advantages that Republicans had. Obama had to basically start from scratch, which I am sure inflated his costs.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
VA-Sen: Webb Won't Seek Another Term | 202 comments

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