Irony Alert

Despite Roy "Papa" Blunt being the junior Senator from Missouri, the most damning attack on Ed Martin may be to remind voters he was CoS to Matt "Baby" Blunt.

I read somewhere that Emerson and Wagner are "close" and unlikely to run against each other in a primary...despite not having been elected before I think Ann Wagner is the 800lb Gorilla in this race (if she runs), she is easily as conservative as Martin and appeals to the Tea Party crown ideologically (remember she was the non-prebus conservative in the RNC chair race), but also can be Ms. establishment (Papa Blunt's Campaign chair & RNC Member) and she'll also be able to raise more cash than you can shake a stick at (plus the stick).  

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 19:42:13 PM UTC

A full tea party candidate

Martin is probably going to occupy the farthest right spot of the major candidates in the primary -- the question is if that will be enough to outpace Steelman, Graves, Wagner or whoever else jumps in.

I suspect that he would be the easiest if any of them for McCaskill to beat - because he certainly won't have the same political environment that he had working for him in 2010.  

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by: terje @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 19:44:18 PM UTC

He's probably betting on slipping through a split primary electorate

It's not clear how many will be in the primary, but Martin knows that if the others have divisive campaigns, he can slip through.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 19:54:04 PM UTC

Wagner

No one is getting to Ann Wagner's right, but she may be too establishment to look the part to the Tea Party crowd. If the tea party is ideological and not just a front for political amateurism she'll crush him.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 20:04:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In the RNC race

She was one of two (the other one being Saul Anuzis) candidates the Tea Party liked.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 22:53:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ooh

a Republican who lost in the biggest GOP wave year in decades! I'm so scared!

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by: thematt523 @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 20:14:13 PM UTC

Ed Martin is an Asshat

but he came far closer than most expected, he actually carried Jefferson & St. Genevieve counties and almost broke even in St. Louis county. If the legislature were to pull Representative Clay's underage from Carnahan's base he would likely win a rematch. Much higher probability they'll thrown Carnahan & Emerson in together instead though meaning Harris has to act quick to take advantage of his faux credibility.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 20:22:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

By this logic

Tom Perillio should be a great statewide candidate in VA.

(aka it's possible, but I have my doubts on both Perillio and Martin).

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by: tietack @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 21:23:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Turnout was terrible for Democrats

You really have to factor that into the numbers. Martin's strength looks quite overinflated, as in a more neutral year, he would not have come that close.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 02:07:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, very much.

The only reason why the Dems gained one seat in the State Senate was because so many Republicans were term-limited out that year.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 02:10:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

idk...

Someone could do the math, but I'd say if a statewide candidate gets 47% in the currently configured 3rd (D+7)they're probably winning the state.

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by: cclub79 @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 20:27:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who said he'd get it again?

Future election results are not determined solely by past election results. Just because he got 47% in a really good year for the GOP doesn't mean he can win a statewide race against an incumbent 2 years later in a different political climate.

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by: thematt523 @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 22:39:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A Republican needs only 39% there to carry the state

If Martin were to get anything close to the 47% he won in 2010 in MO-03, and avoid getting blown out in greater KC, he'd win the state. I don't think he's the best candidate the GOP has, but his 2010 performance shouldn't be considered a weakness.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 20:59:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Reminds me how Scott Kleeb would win in '08

Because of his '06 performance.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 21:36:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nebraska is much tougher for a Dem than MO is for a Republican

And Kleeb's '06 race was for an open seat, not against an entrenched incumbent.

As I said above, Martin is not the best candidate the GOP can field. But I think he's better than people give him credit for.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 21:51:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sure

I'm just making the point that extrapolation is a waste of time. Different opponents, different office, different year.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 22:00:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Turnout was very low

in that part of the state, I think, so I am not sure he'd get that close unless it's another ludicrously Republican year.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 23:08:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He benefited from horrific turnout

Martin is a huge nutcase, like somewhere between Louie Gohmert and Allen West. Not that it'd preclude him from winning but it'd be a really big liability in a high-profile race in a neutral or Dem year.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 13:14:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Slightly of Topic

The Northern Florida US District Court (Pensacola) has struck down HRC in it's entirety. Interesting part is it claims the individual mandate cannot be removed.

To quote: "I must conclude that the individual mandate and the remaining provisions are all inextricably bound together in purpose and must stand or fall as a single unit. The individual mandate cannot be severed."

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 20:34:05 PM UTC

This

is all going to climax in one bloody fight at the Supreme Court....

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 20:40:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How about we do it Celebrity Deathmatch Style?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 20:44:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Way offtopic

Unacceptable. This sort of thing doesn't belong anywhere on this site. We're about elections -- keep your discussions focused on that.

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by: James L. @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 20:56:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mea Culpa

Mea Maxima Culpa

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 21:35:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not Surprising....

If you look at the current census information you can see why Mr. Martin is trying for the senate.  The third distict will probably disappear by the next election. The population in St. Louis continues to exit  - mainly to its inner and outer cores.  See excellent article attached:
http://www.newgeography.com/co...

Based on these numbers much of South St. Louis will be added to the first district with the counties of Jefferson and St. Genevieve added to others. The 3rd district will be completely changed by the next election and neither Mr Martin nor Mr. Carnahan will have much luck winning in a redistricted Missouri.

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by: canadianthoughts @ Tue Feb 01, 2011 at 17:29:21 PM UTC