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WV-Gov: Supreme Court Orders Special Election This Year

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jan 18, 2011 at 3:49 PM EST


All of a sudden, we seem to have an answer on when that mysterious special election for West Virginia Governor (to replace the resigned Joe Manchin) will be. It'll be this November, according to the state Supreme Court.

West Virginia will hold a special election for governor by Nov. 15, or within one year of when state Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin began acting as chief executive, according to a ruling Tuesday by the state Supreme Court in the resulting legal dispute.

Tomblin had concluded that the West Virginia Constitution and state law did not set the next vote for the governor's office until 2012. Tuesday's ruling sides with the West Virginia Citizen Action Group and lawyer Thornton Cooper, who challenged Tomblin's stance....

The Supreme Court said a new statewide election "shall be held as soon as practicable'' whenever a vacancy in the governor's office occurs before the first three years of the term have expired.

I can't tell if this is truly the last word in the matter or if there's any wiggle room left for Earl Ray Tomblin (the acting Gov., who had been the main voice agitating to push the election back until 2012)... but this looks pretty conclusive, bringing this strange period of uncertainty to an end.
Crisitunity :: WV-Gov: Supreme Court Orders Special Election This Year
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WV-Gov: Supreme Court Orders Special Election This Year | 33 comments
Gov. O'Malley can't be thrilled about this
The DGA will have to choose between backing what it sees as the best horse in the race, the bluest horse in the race, or just the horse in the race who wins the nomination with no national involvement. For a guy who is probably looking at a 2016 run for the presidency, that's a bit of early pressure; I suspect how the governor handles the situation will influence how seriously he's taken as a potential candidate by Beltway insiders and party officials.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
I bet he butts out
No reason to back any candidate. West Virginia Democrats might prefer not to be attached to any outside influence. It would be wisest to just sit out until after the primary, then endorse the primary winner for the general.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
That's my guess
Although if Gov. Tomblin runs, not backing the incumbent is just as good as taking a side.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I don't know Tomblin
But, my guess is that he isn't interested in any national Democrats' help.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
That won't make Sen. Manchin happy
Gov. Tomblin is a key ally of Sen. Manchin back home, and if Manchin feels that the Democratic establishment is hanging Tomblin out to dry, he could take action. I don't expect Manchin would do anything like defect (nowhere near certain he would win a Republican primary, family is traditionally Democratic, etc., although if he bolted, it would be a disaster for the West Virginia Democratic Party), but he could make Sen. Reid's life difficult. So, I suspect there will actually be some pressure on Gov. O'Malley to back Tomblin, though with the horse-trading in Washington - something Bill Daley knows all about - the price for the DGA's support of Tomblin may be Manchin's good behavior over the next several months.

Something to think about.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Well hey,
now that Lieberman's retiring, the position of "enormous pain in Harry Reid's hinder" is available.

I'm pretty sure Ben Nelson gets first dibs, but the odds of Joe Manchin making it to 2013 are a lot greater, so he should be considered the favorite.  

[ Parent ]
unfair
to put manchin with JOE; different states require different politics(WV SURE AIN'T CT)......
[ Parent ]
It's Also Not Nebraska
There's no reason to assume he should necessarily be to the Right of Rockefeller.
[ Parent ]
Agreed, but not for the same reasons.
I imagine, at least after 2012, that Manchin will be surprisingly Liberal. He obviously has his heart set on big things - I'd imagine he'd like to be considered for VP if the Democrats nominate someone polarizing in 2016. Failing in that, he'd probably also want to be in the running for a cabinet post, and he can't accomplish either from the far right of the Dem caucus.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
Delusions of Grandeur Notwithstanding
That'd fly in the face of masses of poli sci literature showing that legislators don't change their stripes in terms of their ideology. And for a guy in his mid-60s who has made a career of being BFFs with Big Coal, the Chamber of Commerce, and the Catholic Bishops, well, he'd be undergoing a rather enormous ideological change to vote as you expect. Still, Evan Bayh seemed to vote better when he was thinking of running for president, so I suppose it's possible, well-established norms notwithstanding.
[ Parent ]
I'm not saying Barbara Boxer
... but rather more like a Mark Warner or a Jim Webb. i.e. a New Democrat rather than a Blue Dog. I think Manchin could pull off such a transition, especially if it's done relatively gradually.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
he will vote his STATE
that will keep re-electing him for life
[ Parent ]
Disagree
All Manchin has ever wanted to be is a US Senator, he's made that clear for years...now that he has the job he's not going to let go of it for 30 years, so you can expect him to be the new Ben Nelson of the Dem Caucus, basically you can count of him to vote for majority leader and that's about it...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
and MASSIVE pork for WV
which will re-elect him for as long as he runs(by the way, manchin is loved by the union guys, so he can't be all bad)
[ Parent ]
Capito or Ireleand
I think this might explain Ireland's strange comment about having spoken to Capito and not running if she was.

I remember seeing a quote that Capito would NOT run in a special election for Governor, but would look at making the race in '12. It would make sense for her then to have told Ireland to go ahead and get ready to run...the missing piece of info being THIS YEAR. Thus, "if you win, congrats if you lose, maybe I'll run next year"

If you figure a Governor run isn't in her plans then I'd have to expect her to take a long look at the Senate race, her committee assignments are rather pedestrian (infrastructure and banking, with 1 pretty crappy sub-committee chairmanship) and she's going to get a ton of pressure from the NRSC to take on Manchin.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

Capito seems really risk-averse

This have not sense since the point of someone what find to be governor.

This have more sense as threat looking to the redistricting process. It sound like: If I have not district for run in 2012 I will run for governor.

[ Parent ]
Agree
I think she's probably looking to be a long-term House Member. If something crazy happens with redistricting, she'll jump in and give somebody a headache (unlike Donnelly or Matheson, it will be a serious headache if she runs), but that's not her first choice. That's why I think we'll see something close to a zero-change map for WV.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
but with this level of aversion to the risk

the threat sound so empty

She seems not able for make the threat real after lose the chance of run for a open senate seat (I understand) and against a not elected governor.

[ Parent ]
still what risk
is there in running for an off year election?  bobby rush ran for mayor in 2000 (can't remember the exact year) and lost.  that didn't hurt his chances in the democratic primary against barry what's his name.  it might hurt her standing a bit statewide, but she'd have her house seat, and couldn't be that vulnerable on either side of the aisle.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
risk of lose?

[ Parent ]
I think Rush ran for mayor in 99 and then ran for his house seat
in 00 and won.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
If capito doesn't run in the special she certainly won't run in 2012.
That would make no sense at all.

Is he doesn't run now the only question is whether she thinks the GOP will control the House indefinitely and thus stays; or if she only wants the Senate post-Rockefeller.

[ Parent ]
The only thing I can guess is Capito might want to nationalize the race
which is easier in 12 then 11.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Still better to run in 2012 as an incumbent, 2011 risks nothing, even if she loses by less than 5%
If she doesn't run in 2011, she doesn't want to be governor.

There's no logical way to imagine a 2012 race while passing on a 2011 one... it's even almost not possible to do it, what is she going to do, announce a run in Decemeber weeks after an election she could have run in?  Nonsense, no chance of it.

[ Parent ]
CAN YOU SAY "TEST CASE"?
this will be perfect for the democratic party to show where it stands(IF the race is competitive; then barack obama is sitting 'REAL PRETTY' for '12)
Perhaps Internally as well as Externally
Depending on whether or not the Dems have a convention or a primary.
[ Parent ]
i tihink both actually
it should be a good race for folks here to analyze
[ Parent ]
Jeez!
Get a Lt. Governor.
Thats what
Tomblin is proposing.  
[ Parent ]
Not that anyone cares
but John Raese announced he would not run for Governor, with Capito confirming she would not run in a special election it look like Ireland get the GOP nod by default.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
Guess he's dedicated himself
to reducing his terrible golfing handicap.  Can't blame him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
There's one other candidate
State Sen. Clark Barnes, who by the looks of his website is gearing up for a hard-right Social Issues-driven campaign.  

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
since i live in FLA with him
i am glad to hear that he won't be running for governor here(rick scott is bad enough)
[ Parent ]
WV-Gov: Supreme Court Orders Special Election This Year | 33 comments

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