Guessing

If I had to hazard a guess I'd say Heller only runs if Ensign decides to run for re-election. At that point he'd basically be forced into a primary challenge (and almost certain primary win and less certain but still likely general election victory).

However, if Ensign does retire I'd bet Heller stays in the house and LG Brian Krolicki runs instead. I've heard they are close, but mostly this makes sense based on Heller status in the House majority & Krolicki's need to make another statewide run to prove he's still a rising power in the state.

As for Berkeley, if she believes the Dems are likely to regain the majority soon she may prefer playing the seniority game in the house vs risking a safe seat for what might be an uphill battle statewide, even in a Presidential year.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 20:16:36 PM UTC

Considering his 6% standing with primary voters

Krolicki doesn't strike me as some powerhouse on the level of Heller.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 20:53:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2nd choice?

Krolicki might have gotten a lot more than 6% if Heller had not been one of the choices. I don't know much about NV politics but from what I gather they are both safe establishment types, so I think it's plausible that Krolicki would be the 2nd choice of a lot of Heller's supporters.

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 21:33:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think it's obvious why she's pushing it back

AZ changed a lot of things. People are going to need time to process and see if business changes. The House may be a very different place. No one is going to want to hear of anyone announcing plans to run for Senate/Governor/House for a few months. We all need some time off to reconsider our priorities.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 20:18:01 PM UTC

Two words

Robin Carnahan. Things can change very quickly. But obviously they may not.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 20:30:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Meant to be a response to crowning Heller

Senator.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 20:30:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is one of our few pick up oopurtunites.

If Democrats don't make a serious effort (Reid) then what is the point. Even if Heller runs, I don't see Reid sitting back and risking his Majority leader status.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 20:32:34 PM UTC

oops! Opportunities!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 20:33:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldnn't expect

Reid to hold back at all if/when Ensign retires. The two have an informal agreement not to support the other's challengers, but I don't think it would matter if Ensign somehow won the GOP primary and that truce certainly wouldn't extend to Heller, Krolicki or any other GOP candidate.

Now if a resonable GOPer like Heller or Krolicki were to win I think Reid would have no problem extending his "protection" in order to create a good working relationship with the junior senator in order to protect Nevada's interest (Specifically Yucca Mountain)

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 20:39:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was under the impression that Reid had

an "agreement" with Heller as well. If anyone ends up being the Republican nominee whether it be Heller, Ensign, Lowden, Krolicki, or Angle. Reid should do everything is his power to insure a Democratic victory to maintain his status. This seat could very well determine whether Democrats control the Senate in 2013.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 20:46:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hadn't heard that

but it wouldn't surprise me either, Reid has been very adept at massaging the relationships among the NV delegation to make sure partisanship didn't interfere with protecting the state from the Yucca Mountain project.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 21:01:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Heller pointedly stayed out of NV-Sen last year and actually publicly criticized Angle...

...for opposing extending emergency unemployment benefits.

But there was more going on there than just Heller being on good terms with Reid.  Heller barely staved off Angle in the primary for his then-open House seat in 2006, and I'm sure there's no love lost between them.  Heller is like the rest of the NV GOP establishment, they all hate Angle.

Still, Reid will be in a tough spot if Heller is the GOP nominee.  In a way he owes Heller for not helping Angle and even implicitly helping Reid, but at the same time Senate control is at stake and NV is one our few pickup opportunities in a numerically heavily defensive year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Jan 12, 2011 at 02:46:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree and

and surely Angle hates them too. I think here again the polital fight in the republican side is open and can be as hard as in 2010.

I think Reid will not put in risk his current role of majority leader with a low profile democratic candidate here. It is just the moment of find his best ally from Nevada for the next years and help him/her to win the seat, because this race is winnable again.

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by: abgin @ Wed Jan 12, 2011 at 07:10:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

While I agree Tuscon will inevitably lead politicians

to reprioritize and reconsider their careers, I think, in Berkley's case, stalling is to be expected. She really needs a clearer idea of what kind of opponent she'll be facing before she enters. If it's a disgraced senator who's refused to resign for over a year, then she could waltz into the Senate. If it's a beloved conservative who has already represented Nevada statewide, it will be a difficult battle that she may lose, forcing her to give up House seniority and a safe seat. And then, of course, it could be any of the other potential, lesser-known candidates. Lowden, despite her idiocy, seems to be trying for a political comeback. I recall a hypothetical poll from slightly before the election that had Reid squaring off against Tarkanian (the only GOP candidate who did not end the year in embarrassment) and he was vastly outperforming Angle. I assume Krolicki could also make the race more competitive than Ensign, but he's probably not as strong a candidate as some of the other prospective names. And then, of course, there's Angle. If the Republicans choose to bless us with her again, Berkley will set the land speed record for registering a campaign with the FEC.  

NY-01/NY-19

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by: swamisurfer14 @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 20:36:07 PM UTC

More importantly

Any potential candidate would prefer a better idea of what the national environment might be like. Far too early to tell at the moment which is why I'm surprised people are parroting such certainty about a number of races.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 20:40:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Berkeley

Is in the catbird seat right now, the drawing of a new Nevada CD give her tons of breathing room as any potential replacements for her house seat have to wait on the new lines, thus little to no pressure on her to announce her re-election plans - she can sit back and see how things play out on the GOP side and then decide if she want to play the seniority game in the house or risk making a senate run.


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 20:59:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Berkeley

Was VERY close to Giffords. A Senate bid is probably the last thing on her mind right now.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 21:08:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's what I'm thinking, too

Obviously, running against Rep. Heller would be harder than running against Sen. Ensign, but I don't think she's been getting a lot of strategy consultations since Saturday. I think she's probably preoccupied.

Titus would probably be the next-best Democratic recruit if, in light of everything, Rep. Berkley decides to opt out. Heller certainly looks very strong right now, but a lot can change, and if he vacates his NV-02, I think it becomes a prime pickup opportunity for the Democrats even if he ends up winning election to the Senate.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 22:32:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

She might not have the chance...

It could end up like it did for Reid the younger this year.  Getting in when there was a strong likelihood that he'd face Jim Gibbons only to find that it's the much more popular, unscandalized Brian Sandoval he will be facing.  She can follow polls now, but she's still going to have to make a decision long before the polls will have been settled.  I mean, geez, look at the change in the Primary positions in just 2 months!  Which makes me think, when in doubt, stay in the House.  

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by: patlak @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 21:25:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

sorry

That was a response to swamisurfer....

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by: patlak @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 21:26:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

but she still has every reason - both personal and political - to hold off for a bit and get the lay of the land. She won't know who the Republican nominee will be until after she makes her decision, but she can wait and see if Ensign gives up and retires some time this year.  

NY-01/NY-19

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by: swamisurfer14 @ Tue Jan 11, 2011 at 22:10:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]