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MI-Sen: Stabenow Leads, But Looks Shaky

by: Crisitunity

Fri Dec 10, 2010 at 12:52 PM EST


Public Policy Polling (12/3-6, Michigan voters, no trendlines)

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 49
John Engler (R): 42
Undecided: 9

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 45
Pete Hoekstra (R): 44
Undecided: 11

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 45
Terri Lynn Land (R): 41
Undecided: 14

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 47
Tim Leuliette (R): 30
Undecided: 24

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 43
Candice Miller (R): 41
Undecided: 15
MoE: ±2.8%

PPP's first look at 2012's Michigan Senate race may surprise some people, as this race isn't one that gets mentioned in the same context as the main trio of troublesome races for the Dems this cycle (Montana, Missouri, and Virginia), yet the numbers here look more similar to those races than the ones that are shaping up to be pretty safe, like Minnesota. I'm not entirely surprised, though, as PPP's previous approval scorings have placed Debbie Stabenow near the bottom of the Senators up for re-election in 2012, and that seems to show up here again, with middling 41/40 approvals and not breaking 50% against any of her opponents.

Interestingly, the person I'd thought would be the strongest opposition for her, three-term ex-Gov. John Engler (about whom there had been vague rumblings last year about a run), fares worse than most other GOPers. It's not as if people have forgotten him; he's still only 9% unknown, it's just that people remember him and don't like him (33/45)! It may be a Tommy Thompson-style problem, where a fresh face is more compelling than the old hand that everyone initially feared. The closest race is with Rep. Peter Hoekstra, who's probably top of mind right now because he ran statewide, narrowly losing the GOP gubernatorial primary... but the polarizing Hoekstra is much less liked (28/31) than some of the other options that may have more upside for the GOP (Rep. Candice Miller and SoS Terri Lynn Land, both at 36/21, although I haven't heard any mention of Miller or Land's names being floated for this race).

(I don't think there will be a digest today, partly because of time concerns, partly because of sheer lack of compelling news, so feel free to use the comments here for off-topic discussion today.)
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MI-Sen: Stabenow Leads, But Looks Shaky | 68 comments
Nebraska
Nebraska certainly belongs in that trio (quartet?) as well, no? And Florida isn't far behind it.
Perhaps he already views Nelson as in Santorum territory?
Once Bob Casey declared in 2006. it was pretty much curtains for Santorum and it was a long slow death after that.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Yeah, that
about sums it up, although I don't know if Nelson is truly in Santorum territory yet. Obviously this is pretty meaningless nearly two years out, but MO, VA, and MT are kind of the firewall at this point, with NE being the only one outside the firewall.
[ Parent ]
He's actually at 50% approval
according to that NE GOP poll released a month ago.  But yeah, he's the least likely to win in 2012.  And if we prevent any and all retirments in swing states or reddish states, we'll probably lose no more than 2.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
If
Heinemann had run, Nelson would be in Santorum position.  Right now, that's unknown.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I wanna see more polling of Nebraska
before making any first conclusions.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
We could have seen some polling soon..
BUT NO!  PPP people voted for Ohio and Wisconsin.  (for the record I wanted Ohio and Nebraska.
[ Parent ]
Nelson
I'd assume Nelson is dead meat, but stranger things have happened I guess. If you had to rank the Dem seats in order of vulnerability I'd go with;

1. Nebraska
2. Missouri
3. Montana
4. Virginia
5. Ohio
6. Michigan
7. Florida
8. North Dakota (only if open)
9. Wisconsin
10. West Virginia (only if Capito runs)
11. New Jersey (Menendez is unpopular, but who run from Red Team?)
12. Minnesota (getting into the honorable mention category)
13. Connecticut (strange thigs can happen in a 3-way)
14. Tie for HI, NM, DE for "if open then maybe"

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
PA?
n/t
[ Parent ]
PA?
Only if either Casey retired (.000000000000001% chance) or Former Gov/DHS Sec Tom Ridge runs (.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance)

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
loooong
That was cute, but your fraction of a percentage point stretched the screen, so on my itty-bitty laptop I now have to scroll from left to right to read the posts..

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU
[ Parent ]
Why would Florida
be there? Is Nelson really that vulnerable?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Yes.
With a lot of wealthy areas and more than enough strong Republican contenders, it is no surprise that a lot of people think Nelson is vulnerable. He was thought to be vulnerable even in 2006 until the primary. (And we all know what happened then, lol.)

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Against Jeb Bush
We hear constant talk of Nelson being vulnerable (or DOA from Florida GOPers) but it's never shown up in polling, yet. Back in July, PPP had him leading Jeb Bush 46-44 and Lemeiux 46-28. There was some anger over Nelson's Obamacare vote but he helped himself with his quick response to the Gulf oil spill.
[ Parent ]
If nothing else,
his standing amongst Republicans, which is supposedly better than than amongst Democrats, should help him. After all, what's harder to do, work the base or work the center?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Ohio
Too much attention on the wrong Brown (MA). Sherrod Brown has been one of the most consistent liberal votes in the Senate and he represents a state where Dems just got washed out. I think he could be in more trouble than some have let on, especially if unemployment is still high in Ohio in two years. Maybe he'll have a Perriello-effect though. By standing strong behind progressive causes (but not being an ass about it ala Alan Grayson), he made a conservative district very competitive in a terrible year for Democrats. But then again, we all know how Perriello wound up...  

NY-01/NY-19
Perriello only lost 47-51.
This is not a blowout by any stretch of the word.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Considering all the facts about the race
I'd still call that a win.  A moral one, but clearly there is a lesson to be learned from all this; if you want people to vote for you and your party, talk about said party favorably.  As could there have been a less coherent message coming from the conservadems this cycle?  "The Democrats in Washington are over-spending, over-taxing, and everyone there acts like children.  So vote for me, the person who thinks voters are stupid enough to not read the D's and R's after each person's name."
[ Parent ]
Brown vs Jordan
Can't wait to see the numbers from PPPolling on this race next week. I'm guessing Brown is in the same boat as McCaskill & Stabenow, not dead by any means, but in for a long tough fight - with at best a 50/50 shot at getting their 50%+1

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Sherrod Brown is a rural progressive....
...in a similar vain to what Strickland was (albeit more progressive), but Brown has a similar "map" of appeal in the state.  If Strickland could manage to lose by only 3 points in a dem wipeout (where cuyahoga county voters stayed home due to an overwrought county "scandal" that has been in the news for over a year), Sherrod Brown is in pretty good shape.  His appeal is not just restricted to the blue areas.  He is a populist and has populist appeal across the state just like Strickland.  With Obama conceivably contesting the state hard in 2012, Brown should be OK.  In 2008, statewide dems over performed Obama by as much as 20 points.

As long as Sherrod is not caught sleeping, he should be OK.  Then again, who knows what political strangeness we will see in two years.

[ Parent ]
That's very optimistic
Brown surely has a path to victory, but I do think he will need some help along the way. Dodging a top challenger or getting a bloody GOP primary would be a good start, he'll also need a strong campaign in the state from Obama. Even then it will be touch and go.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
He won't be challenged....
He's beloved by the base and will have no problem with ground troops.

I am much more optimistic than you.  The last Registered Voter poll had him with a 48-31 approval rating.  It was the enthusiasm gap that killed us in Ohio, if that is not there this time around, everything should be fine.

Who the hell is this Tim Jordan anyways?  He's definitely not a top tier challenger in a presidential year.  

[ Parent ]
Jim Jordan
Congressman from OH-04. Brown was elected out of the House (OH-13), albeit against a very damaged opponent in Mike DeWine.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I see not him as a frontrunner

We will see the poll. I would not be surprised if DeWine appears stronger tha Jordan.
[ Parent ]
I agree that he'll run unopposed for the primary
Come the general, though, I think he'll have a solid race to fight out. My hunch is Mary Taylor probably bolts from the Lt.Gov. post to run for the U.S. Senate nod, and she's probably as "generic R" as it gets. Steve LaTourette could run too, I guess, but he's rather moderate, plus he's already built up over a decade's worth of seniority in the U.S. House. I imagine Mike DeWine's breathing a sign of relief that he managed a narrow comeback w/ the AG post. He's probably not up for another fight.

The good news for Brown is that Democrats do love him (moreso than Lee Fisher), and he'll win 90%+ of them come the general. The bad news is he won't siphon-off many Republicans at all (a conservaDem could probably win 15% of them vs. a flawed nominee; he might win 5%), virtually ensuring that he needs a win among Independents to win overall.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
approval rating
48-31 sounds good. Conspiracy (the SSP user I mean) referred to a recent poll showing a 31-40 negative for Brown.

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU
[ Parent ]
That was PPP's likely voter poll...
...in which they said the enthusiasm gap was a canyon.  We have to look at more registered number type polls for 2012, and I think he's doing well in that regard.
[ Parent ]
Strickland ended up only losing by 2
With provisionals, the offical total was 77,000 votes, EXACTLY 2 percent (which is kind of creepy)  49.04% to 47.04%
[ Parent ]
That is a lot better, I think, than he should have
Considering the environment and the state at hand, he really should have lost by 8%-10%.  It's too bad, he's clearly a talented pol who can run a damn good race, but he just can't overcome those wave elections.  (He lost his House seat in 1994, too.  Yeah, fuck that, I'd be done with politics too if my political career kept getting besmirched by national instead of personal factors.)

And I just noticed Fischer didnt even break 40%, yeesh!  I do think he would have done a better job attaching himself to Strickland and performing more in his realm of margins if he hadn't faced a primary from Brunner.  That primary really sapped a lot out of the race.  Fisher still wouldnt have won, but it's just a thought.

[ Parent ]
What is the meaning of a "rural progressive"?
In the old DFL sense, it suggests a reference to coops and other collective agricultural activities.

How does Senator Brown embody the ideals of a "rural progressive?"

[ Parent ]
populist
A very well-known author and blogger from the Iron Range in northern MN has described the area as downright socialist in it's anti-CEO/pro-worker ideology.  It's about the people and getting them the money they deserve for working their 40-hours.
[ Parent ]
A different "rural" than what I was thinking of
But it's important to remember the miners too, as they are primarily located in rural communities.
[ Parent ]
When was the last day we've gone without a digest?
Who wants to click through the archives and check? It'll be fun!

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
last Sunday
   There are no digests on the weekend. There is the "What races are you interested in?" thread, but that is not a daily digest.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
I think what's keeping Pete Hoekstra's numbers up
may be his 3-feet-high turtle fence.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
SSP needs a like button for the above post


16, Male, MD-8.
[ Parent ]
yeah, from Auto-tune the News #10
  which may be my favorite ATTN. He may be getting crossover votes from environmentalists who don't want turtles to be hit by cars.  For those unfamiliar with the genius of Auto-tune the News go to  thegregorybrothers.com for some great absurdist entertainment and catchy music..  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
or who don't want turtles to be hit by
trucks driven by a different kind of Republican, who might be a lesbian who does lines of coke in shady bars with other lesbians.

CLAP CLAP

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Good point
  but you gotta remember that it is all about "Jobs, jobs, jobs" including the ones for unemployed slobs...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Michigan!
All this Nebraska & Ohio chatter, but what do we think of the Michigan numers from PPPolling. Dems should be nervous about the tepid support, 45% or less vs everyone but Engler? Even with a solid presidential year turnout in Detroit Metro & Union stongholds in Saginaw she looks weak. GOPers have to be nervous that the better known the challenger the lower the higher Stabenow's ballot test number, looks like a classic case of "we don't like ours, but we REALLY don't like theirs"

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
It is pretty troubling but she's not this cycles' Santorum/ Lincoln
With a good campaign she should be able to turn things around.  But she should probably work on improving her image a bit.  If she's disliked for just being a Senator she should work on standing out from the crowd a bit  If voters have something against her personally that could be more trouble but she has nearly two years to fix the problem.  Unlike some Senators (Liddy Dole, Feingold) she shouldn't be taken by surprise.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
I'm still a relatively new SSPer,
so forgive me if this is way off and you are a regular and not a troll, but your concern about Michigan sounds similar to what leeattwater was saying about Missouri.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Rep. Candice Miller
I'd never heard of Michigan's Rep. Candice Miller until earlier today, when I read an article about Wikileaks that quoted her. "It is time that the Obama administration treats WikiLeaks for what it is -- a terrorist organization," she apparently said. Lovely.

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU
I know!
She was Michigan's SoS before she was elected to congress.  She was well-liked but SoS doesn't get too involved in politics.  If the SoS office runs smoothly, people are happy.  Miller now has a record of being very conservative which I think could hurt her....particularly with the same independents who voted for Snyder this year.
[ Parent ]
Candice Miller is the only one who can beat Stabenow I think
Obama being on the ballot brings out the black vote in Detroit, which I think would save Stabenow, but I wouldn't be surprise to see a lot Obama/Rep. splitting in Oakland County and the UP.

The tax cut deal might actually hurt Democrats in Congress because people will see it and say "oh hey, this Obama/Republican Congress thing works"

[ Parent ]
If that's what works
Oy, if that's what works, I'm suddenly not afraid of completely and irrevocably deadlocked government. Hey, maybe THAT will get us toward surplus again!

Sadly, in a sign of my rising disillusionment with the decision-making skills of American voters, I've resigned myself to being happy as long as Joe Lieberman is not in the Senate after 2012. It's up to you, Connecticut, don't screw it up this time.

I'm told this disillusionment thing will happen more frequently as I move even closer to 30.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Looking to the poll

This seems like no-one will defeat her. Close race maybe, but no-one enough strong for defeat D Stabenow.
[ Parent ]
No, I don't think Stabenow loses
She might have this year, but not in 2012, out of the candidates though I think Candice Miller comes closest.  
[ Parent ]
Even in 2010 I think no-one would defeat her

But surely the race would be really close.

Before the PPP poll I think Engler was the frontrunner, after the poll well I have not clear it, because as example F Upton was not polled if I'm not wrong (surely he would not win a primary).

Without better prospects I think no-one republican house incumbent will move to the senate race, and this make the race easier for D Stabenow, because J Engler take very hard numbers for him. That leaves only the losers of the last gubernatorial races (2006 and 2010) as the strongest candidates. This is not the best way for begin a strong challenge.

[ Parent ]
Stabenow challengers
I doubt Dick DeVos (2006) will run again;  I would actually be less surprised to see someone from the 80s come back.  That said, given Citizens United, he may effectively bankroll her opponent.

I also don't see any remotely recent Senate candidates being able to get through the primary without becoming near-jokes in the general.

I agree that that 2010 also-rans are likely, with the caveat that Terry Lynn Land will run as "former Secretary of State" rather than "announced for governor, then backed down to Lt. Gov, then didn't even come close to a nomination for that".

The newly-elected Secretary of State and Attorney General are also both very ambitious; I wouldn't rule out either of them, and they might have less baggage than their predecessors.

[ Parent ]
I was including T Lynn Land in the mix of losers :)

because she flirt unsuccesfully like you explain. Cause of this I consider her less strong than other losers.

I think the profile of W Schuette and R Johnson is still under the profile of the people what run for governor in 2010. The senate race of 2012 can be too soon for them. W Schuette can have advantage over R Johnson, but he know the consecuences of lose a unsuccesful bid for the senate (get out the political map for years).

[ Parent ]
4-year terms for MI AG and SoS
Michigan's Attorney General and Secretary of State have four year terms.  Losing a run for Senate in 2012 (as opposed to 2014) wouldn't cost them their current seats.

They probably don't yet have enough of a record to win (except by wave-riding), and it would cost them some goodwill for trying to jobhop instead of doing their current jobs, but they wouldn't be out in the wilderness.

[ Parent ]
4-year terms for MI AG and SoS
Michigan's Attorney General and Secretary of State have four year terms.  Losing a run for Senate in 2012 (as opposed to 2014) wouldn't cost them their current seats.

They probably don't yet have enough of a record to win (except by wave-riding), and it would cost them some goodwill for trying to jobhop instead of doing their current jobs, but they wouldn't be out in the wilderness.

[ Parent ]
DFL Party Chair not running again
From the Star Tribune.  He points out that this is the first time the DFL has held every statewide office in 32 years with Dayton now winning.
Engler
People do remember Engler.  He left this state a mess...a mess which Granholm has been cleaning up her entire term.  Many Republicans like to act as if Granholm inherited a wonderful economy and ruined it.  No...Michigan lost 200,000 jobs in Engler's last term.  MI also had an unemployment rate of about 7% which is where it stayed the first 5 years of Granholm's term.  Engler also did nothing to diversify our economy.  That job was also left to Granholm.

The fact that Engler doesn't live in Michigan may also be a problem.  Voters know the difference between owning a home somewhere and living there.    

Engler
Engler wasn't ever really loved/liked in the first place.  He garnered fear and respect, and that's about it.  That's not exactly what gets career politicians who've been out of office for years elected, again, for any state office.  I feel pretty comfortable saying that Engler's career in Michigan was done the minute he left office, and I even doubt he could win a Republican primary, anymore.
[ Parent ]
After see this poll

I think he will be not able for defeat D Stabenow. Even when C Levin retires he can be not-competitive. And I glad.
[ Parent ]
Stabenow
I said this in another thread, recently, after seeing these numbers, but upon seeing how Obama just about crushes every opponent he's put up against in the state save Romney (who he still leads), I'm much less worried about Stabenow than I originally was.  Michiganders aren't big ticket splitters when it comes to presidential years, at least recently that's been the case.  If Michigan votes for Obama even half as enthusiastically as they did in 2008 (+16 points), Stabenow still wins.
Ticket-splitting
What about Camp, Upton, Rogers, and McCotter, all of whom won in 2008 in Obama districts? (with all but McCotter winning handily.) You could say the same about Bart Stupak in 2000 and 2004, or Gary Peters this year.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
None of those seats in 2008 were seriously contested.

[ Parent ]
If you feel as if you
have enough information to answer this, do you think the Obama campaign left some House seats on the table in some states in 2008? In Michigan, for instance, McCotter only won by six points in 2008. I know nothing about this district, but I've heard the Obama campaign didn't place as much emphasis on down ticket races as some think, so I wonder if it was really anything but a special case, or if there was something more than could have been done. I ask because I wonder about seriously contesting races that don't appear on anyone's radar but that are in states where Obama is likely to route the Republican, like California. There are so many damn seats in that state that we could inch our way back towards a minority even if we get screwed badly in some other states.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
As someone who worked for the state party
and had to work with the Obama counter-part, I can say unequivocally the Obama campaign did not give a rats ass about down-ballot races and the entire focus was ensuring their own campaign was not impeded on.  There were goals of having of the state DFL college coordinator work with his Obama counter-part and it fell by the way-side because it became too much about Obama and zero about other candidates.  Fact.
[ Parent ]
That's awful.
I wonder why that was. It seems bizarre to place such a mile wide, but inch deep emphasis on party building. After all, what's the point in building up such an infrastructure if it's not going to matter once you aren't the candidate?

You know, I often joke about being a candidate in some sort of race in the future. I always say that when I am running things, they'll be different. I am partially saying this because I am a little buzzed right now, but I'll definitely remember the poor choices others made in the past and not repeat them. And then I will win, if I am ever a candidate--except, I won't be, because I'd be a shitty one, and I'd rather help someone better than me get elected.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
The consistent inability of the Michigan Dems to get a decent opponent for McCotter is pretty pathetic.
A strong candidate in 2006 or 2008 would probably have taken him out.
[ Parent ]
I hope the Democrats
work on fielding decent candidates in 2012.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Seats left on the table in 2008? Probably not in Michigan
By the end, Democrats (including, in some cases, people recruited primarily for Obama) had switched to lower level races -- usually the State Supreme Court.

I don't think any of the other Congressional seats (except maybe McCotter's) were really available -- and certainly not by the time Obama had a clear lead.  Frankly, Democrats overperformed already by holding the 1st and taking the 9th, let alone the 7th.  

Anything else would basically require the Republican to mess up.  Walberg may well lose again, and Benishek or Amash certainly could, but even McCotter should be safe now that he knows his district won't be erased (and he no longer has to tack crazy for a Senate primary).

[ Parent ]
I was just wondering.
It doesn't surprise me to find out that I was wrong, but I'm intrigued by the notion of looking at every possible race where the Democrat might have a chance. I guess you could say that if the Democrat has cleared 40 percent in a district, I want them to look at seriously contesting the seat. It wouldn't shock me to fail in at least half of these districts, if not over 75 percent of them. But if Obama has the sort of overwhelming victory in California in 2012 that he had in 2008, perhaps he could drag some Democratic candidate over the finish line in 02, 03, and 04, if the districts don't change drastically.

Basically, in much the same way I am tired of the presidential races coming down to Ohio and Florida, I am tired of control of congress being decided by just a handful of states. To the extent it's possible, we should be expanding the map. That's one thing the Republicans know how to do and that we should copy.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Senator
I should have been more clear, I was talking more about Senate races during presidential elections more than anything.  Point is, no one is going to vote for Obama and then vote for a Republican senator.  It'd be different if we had a president who was viewed as a moderate centrist (which he really is), but he's not.  In that case, his voters aren't going to vote for someone as far right as Hoekstra or Miller, and Debbie is not far enough left that she loses anyone in the middle.
[ Parent ]
MI-Sen: Stabenow Leads, But Looks Shaky | 68 comments

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