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NY-01: Altschuler Concedes

by: James L.

Wed Dec 08, 2010 at 11:13 AM EST


Finally, our Long Island nightmare (and our national nightmare, given that this was the last contested House race of the cycle) is over:

New York Republican Randy Altschuler has conceded to Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop, bringing the final undecided House race of the 2010 election cycle to a close.

Altschuler, a wealthy, self-funding businessman, trailed Bishop by 263 votes late Tuesday, after a Suffolk County judge sorted through 1,000 challenged ballots.

The two campaigns were scheduled to meet in court Wednesday morning to continue sorting through ballots, but with fewer than 1,000 challenged votes left to be counted, Altschuler's campaign determined that it could not close the gap.

"After consulting with my family and campaign staff, I am ending my campaign and offering congratulations to Congressman Tim Bishop on his victory," Altschuler said in a statement, adding that he had decided to forego a district-wide hand recount.
James L. :: NY-01: Altschuler Concedes
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NY-01: Altschuler Concedes | 29 comments
We dodged a bullet here
Altschuler could have made for a good state wide candidate with lots of financial connections. Glad the NY GOP didn't add to the state bench.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
So with this and Emmer's concession
I think Alaska Senate is the only thing left. And we progressives don't really have a stake in that one. (although, on a personal note, I loathe Joe Miller and would much rather see Murkowski in there).  
Miller is such a schmuck
He has zero chance of winning yet he continues to play it up asserting that his loss was a conspiracy by those nefarious brown people.  I think the most likely explanation is that he's using the recount to raise money to pay back the money he loaned himself. (about 100k)

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Miller's blatant measuring of the drapes
prior to the election makes his comeuppance sweet indeed.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
While I prefer my GOP incumbents to be as despising and beatable as possible, I'm greatly enjoying Joe Miller's inability to reconcile hubris with reality.
[ Parent ]
While the first half of your sentence
Suffers for using a non-word, the second half is going on the tweeter.
[ Parent ]
Despicable me
That's a nice mix of honor and shame. Back to the books now...
[ Parent ]
Man:
It's about time. I've always been a fan of Rep. Bishop and am glad that he pulled this one off - but by the slimmest of margins.

Now if they could only make his district safer - can they do that?

It's tough because of the geography
This is one of those districts that only borders one other district: Steve Israel's moderately safer NY-02, which is only 56% Obama. You could do a little territory swapping, but too much would put Israel's district into play.

It's the same problem for Democrats with trying to get rid of Pete King (you can't strip out too many Republican precincts from his district without hurting Israel or Carolyn McCarty), and also for Republicans upstate, where there aren't enough Republican votes to secure all the freshmen.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
It wasn't hard
I tweaked things around a bit, and eliminated Ackerman's district. That made McCarthy's 59-40 Obama, Israel's 57-43, King's 45-54, and Bishop's 53-46. A two point shift is small, but it is something.  
[ Parent ]
Hm, never thought of that
I guess downstate is going to have to lose a seat, and Senate Republicans will probably insist it be a Democrat because they'll lose one of their own upstate. The only Republican you could really mess with anyway would be Grimm, and that would be by connecting Staten Island to Manhattan.

I don't think there's a way to draw 4 strong D districts on Long Island. Either someone has to be eliminated, or one seat (Bishop's) will have to be vulnerable.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
The area has enough democratic votes for do it

It is not necessary to lose a district here. And less a democratic seat. The redistricting of the upstate without the current NY-25 would leave free the enough number of very democratic votes in the Bronx (from Engel's district).

Without do the complete gerrymander of the state, and leaving R+ the current NY-03 and NY-13 (in republican hands) it is not difficult to do it. You can jump from the north of Long Island to the Bronx.

If you redistrict not all the state at same time, you know not what part of the city is free. If you think not in all the state at same time you know not exactly what are you doing. Every movement in one part of the state have reflection in the other part.

If you quit one district in the upstate the districts of the city will move toward the upstate leaving free the enough votes for lose not a district in Long Island. If you quit one district in Long Island the districts of the city will move toward Long Island leaving free the enough votes for lose not a district in the upstate.

And NY-25 has very high chance of disappear.

[ Parent ]
My congratulation to T Bishop

The next time I hope see him running in a D+5 district at least. 58/60% Obama.
[ Parent ]
It's Not Adding Up
I started from upstate and eliminating one district up there is easy enough. But I find I always have too much of Westchester/Rockland/Orange left over, and while I can send Engel and Lowey upstate some with little trouble, I can't do the same with the VRA districts in NYC.  

I didn't kill NY-25, but made a Syracuse-to-Ithaca seat that went 60-40 in 2008 and would be nearly impossible for a GOPer to win, combining all the GOP-leaning portions of central and western NY into two districts.  

Maybe if I tried starting on Long Island?  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Probably if they split Smithtown
but they'd have to make Steve Israel's less safe.

Bishop's district is the real swing district of the country, but nearly all the Republican voters are crowded into tea party crazy Smithtown in the west.  

[ Parent ]
Smithtown
is big on the Teabaggers?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Re: Smithtown
Smithtown certainly the most Republican/conservative part of Suffolk County, more resistant to the changes we've seen in other parts of Long Island.

It's tough to deal with in part because it's not near anything that's especially strongly Democratic, other than perhaps Brentwood/Central Islip, which is an important center of strength for Democrats in NY-02, or Port Jefferson, which is pretty small. (Compare with the Five Towns or Massapequa or Garden City, which are beet red by NE Corridor standards but are all right next to some extremely blue territory.)

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Great News
Bishop's been my Congressman as long as I've been aware politics existed. He was heavily outraised and outspent by Altschuler (a very rich dude) and still pulled it out in just about the worst political environment known to Democrats. The district is historically conservative and has a dead even PVI, but I like to think this is evidence it's finally starting to tilt toward Democrats. I just hope this race doesn't scare Bishop into retirement. He's a good public servant and, if he can survive this year, he can survive anything.  

NY-01/NY-19
Good news!
Everyone here knows that i like moderates (may be even more - Republican moderates, because they are much greater "rarities" these days), but Altschuler is, certainly, not one of them. Would he be a "Fred Thiele-type" Republican - i would have difficult time whom to root for, but as it is - it was no brainer..
Even Thiele bolted the Grand Old Party
Republicans would have been smart to run a centrist in NY-01, but they chased all of them out. This district is pretty swingy and, given the choice between a far right Republican and a somewhat liberal Democrat, they chose the candidate closest to the center.

NY-01/NY-19
[ Parent ]
Yes, that's my conclusion too..

[ Parent ]
Brookhaven GOP Chairman Jesse Garcia grace in defeat :
"Bishop got lucky and only by a handful of questionable votes."
Bishop Takes GOP Pawn.
Seriously, why has no one typed this yet?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
How long have you been waiting to do that joke?
you should've busted it out when Sanford Bishop (D-GA02)'s victory was confirmed.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
How long?
5 seconds before I posted it. IT just hit me and saw it as that obvious.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
We still have a Bishop, two Kings, and a (Tea Party) Queen
Quite the chess match! Too bad no one named Knight got elected this year.

That's Rob in UT-01, Pete in NY-03, Steve in IA-05, and yeah, MN-06.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
You guys actually have two queens
don't forget the Birther Queen, Orly Taitz.

We beat you in diagonal movement, but two queens is going to be a problem for the Democrats going forward (going forward on the chess board, I mean). Also, thanks to Christine O'Donnell, you guys can't Castle anymore.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Final count?
So what was the final count for the House?  How many seats did the Republicans flip and how many did the Democrats flip?
66 D to R, 3 R to D, net +63 R.

[ Parent ]
NY-01: Altschuler Concedes | 29 comments

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