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MN-Gov: Dayton Wins Recount

by: DavidNYC

Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 2:34 PM EST


No surprise:

Democrat Mark Dayton has won his bid to become Minnesota's next governor, defeating Republican state legislator Tom Emmer after a recount, according to updated vote results released Friday by the Minnesota Secretary of State.

Dayton, a former U.S. Senator, lead Emmer by more than 8,715 votes with 99.99 percent of all ballots recounted.

An additional 765 ballots remain challenged by the Emmer campaign, too few to affect the final outcome.

But from what I understand, Emmer has vowed to take this one all the way to the World Court in the Hague, so it might be a few decades or so before we can put this one to bed.

(Hat-tip: LookingOver)
DavidNYC :: MN-Gov: Dayton Wins Recount
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MN-Gov: Dayton Wins Recount | 97 comments
Maybe the democrats could learn
something from this--when you see an opening, you go for it.
is the DFL
ever going to abandon their practice of the convention?  it doesn't seem like the best way to get their nominee, especially when the endorsee doesn't get the nomination.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Unlikely
Very, very unlikely. It's just one of those things that is ingrained in political culture here. It's always the DFL-endorsed candidate vs. the field of other DFLers.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Dayton
What a pretty amazing comeback he had. In 2006 being one of the worst senators in the country (as named by times magazine) retired. Apparently he believed that he was not the best candidate to lead the DLF-er in 2006. 4 years later in a climate that is much worse he comes back and wins    
Emmer being a terrible candidate helped
but even so it is a nice comeback. I wish him luck.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Terrible climate
was lessened in lots of states that had Republican governors: e.g. CT, VT, HI, CA, RI, as well as MN.

In MN in particular, Pawlenty isn't popular, and that helped boost the Dem.

[ Parent ]
And the same energy that helped

the MN GOP take the legislature cost them the governor's mansion with the awful candidate of Tom Emmer.  
[ Parent ]
Horner's place in the race also helped.
Like in 2008 when Dean Barkley siphoned off moderate Dem votes, Horner siphoned off more moderate R's than moderate D's.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Oversimplification.
The IPM is a very legitimate party here. There are a large number of people that identify themselves with the Independence Party than that of the DFL or Republicans. It is the same bloc of voters that vote for the IP candidate every cycle. In other words blaming the IP candidates for the Pawlenty wins is very oversimplified, as most of the people that voted Independence did so out like of the Independence Party, as opposed to disaffected Democrats or Republicans.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
I know that.
The IPM is to Minnesota what the Progressive Party is to Vermont (i.e. both being big players in their respective states).  They also both have recent major wins under their belts (i.e. Jesse Ventura in MN and Bernie Sanders in VT).  But do you think that Horner may have siphoned off at least some GOP votes that could have decided this race?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Eh, doubt it
Dayton is unabashedly liberal, and Emmer is equally far right. People that voted for Horner were turned off by both of them. I don't think it made any difference at all, and his votes would have split 50/50, with a large chuck of the IP faithful staying home or leaving the governor's race blank.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
don't mean to be disrespectful but the IP is a spoiler party and it always will be
it siphons off anti-incumben votes when there is an incumbent and the previous party of the person running under the IP banner has a ton to do with who he/she appeals to.

when tim penny (prominent democratic congressman) ran as an "independent" in 2002, he pulled predominantly democratic votes and gave pawlenty an easy win.  when  hutchinson ran as the IP candidate in '06 as a less prominant democrat (served in Perpich's administration), he pulled his 5% almost entirely from the democrat and pawlenty won by a point.

when tom horner ran as the IP candidate in '10, he was clearly identified as a republican (after years as the republican analyst on tv), and predictably, he drew predominantly republican voters.

now in all these cases, there was a weakness in the democrat or republican running, but the math is daunting.  if you have two candidates identified with one party and the other not having his/her vote split, it's a much easier race for that candidate to win.

[ Parent ]
Wrong
A KSTP poll is cited below. Horner pulled nearly exactly the same number of voters out of the Emmer camp as he did out of the Dayton camp. The IP Party is a party of centrists, and really does siphon off votes from both parties. Penney was quite a conservative Democrat, and Horner was a pretty Liberal Republican. To suggest that their former jobs/affiliations affects the race is to completely ignore reality, as well as the exit polling that is a reflection thereof. You can call the IP spoilers if you wish, but it doesn't make it any more true than I calling myself a a bonobo.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
don't mean to be disrespectful but the IP is a spoiler party and it always will be
it siphons off anti-incumben votes when there is an incumbent and the previous party of the person running under the IP banner has a ton to do with who he/she appeals to.

when tim penny (prominent democratic congressman) ran as an "independent" in 2002, he pulled predominantly democratic votes and gave pawlenty an easy win.  when  hutchinson ran as the IP candidate in '06 as a less prominant democrat (served in Perpich's administration), he pulled his 5% almost entirely from the democrat and pawlenty won by a point.

when tom horner ran as the IP candidate in '10, he was clearly identified as a republican (after years as the republican analyst on tv), and predictably, he drew predominantly republican voters.

now in all these cases, there was a weakness in the democrat or republican running, but the math is daunting.  if you have two candidates identified with one party and the other not having his/her vote split, it's a much easier race for that candidate to win.

[ Parent ]
technically bernie was never a Prog
Progressives gained strength in Burlington around him when he became mayor, with Progs winning both council seats and i think statehouse seats, but Bernie was then and still is and independent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
But he's still like an honorary member or something, right?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
they support him
but he doesn't really get involved with their campaigns or anything.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I would attribute Dayton's win solely to the IP
Dayton didnt budge from his position in the polls while Emmer pretty much captured every undecided voter.  Having someone there to siphon off the GOPers who just couldnt stomach a Governor Emmer got us the win.

What makes the whole thing arguable is that we won every statewide race but we got annihilated in the state legislature.  This will be a fun thing to study in the coming months.

[ Parent ]
That makes zero sense......
Horner voters in fact voted for a guy who had no chance of winning instead of Emmer, so it makes no sense to assume they would have moved to Emmer without Horner on the ballot.

There's a lot of oversimplication with assuming who an IP candidate's voters are based on whatever ideological or partisan history that candidate has.  As OGGoldy smartly pointed out, the IP has developed its own identity and loyal voters in MN, and those people don't routinely vote Republican otherwise.  There was no exit poll to identify who Horner's voters were, and county-by-county analysis also makes it hard to say anything about Horner voters.

Dayton earned his win, and we don't have any basis for presuming he needed Horner on the ballot to get it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Thank you for the hat tip.
Partisan makeup is really hard to figure out in states without party registration, such as Minnesota. Exit polling is hard to compare because no one is registered under any party. I would guess that if there were party registration here, it would probably be 40 D/35 R/10 IP, and 15 not affiliated.

Oddly enough though, depending on where in the country you are, the IP is either mainstream Republican (Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut), or mainstream Democrat (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, West Virginia). I really do find the party platform appealing, with me being a center-left populist. I could honestly see myself voting more for IP candidates if the DFL candidate is flawed and the IP makes itself more relevant and an honest contender in more races.

I was really interested in the IP candidates in 2006, when Peter Hutchinson decried the politics of the "5 G's" as political straw men that serve little purpose other than political posturing.(God, guns, gays, gambling and gynecology).  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
I have voted IP several times
In the 90's and early 00's I voted for IP candidates regularly (Except Ventura, I have an intense personal dislike of Jessie). Recently the Republicans have moved so far right I can't bring myself to "waste" my vote and risk Republicans being elected.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
uhhhhhh
The DFL losing 25 state house seats, 16 state senate seats and Dayton winning with 44% of the vote is pretty much all you need to know that yes, the IP candidate absolutely played a part in Dayton winning.  

T-Paw only won in 2006 because he won the suburbs by a huge margin and this year, Emmer won the suburbs by a smaller margin while the IP candidate racked up the biggest vote totals in the entire state here.  I've gone through some of the precinct numbers (P1-5 in Edina and Eden Prairie to be accurate) and the numbers for Hatch/Dayton are nearly identical while the GOP lost a lot of Pawlenty voters to Horner.  You might as well just lop 10% off, which was expected considering they are moderates who Horner appealed to heavily.

And here is what I think makes Oggoldy right but in a very complicated manner.  There is certainly a base of support for the Indy Party but first, it isnt any higher than 8%-9%.  And then, I think that percentage should be roughly cut in half as I think there are two parts to the Indy Party.  The first is the actual base who will always vote Indy.  The other part are a shifting group of people who are voting Indy only that time because they think both candidates suck.  Like my roommate, who voted for Peter Hutchinson in 2006 and then donated to Obama five months later.  Oh, and this is only for the gubernatorial as the Indy Party rarely breaks even 5% in down-ballot races.  Which probably helps prove my point that the base is really only about half of the actual vote percentage.

Although, we can agree that it should be framed this way.  Tom Emmer lost the race for Tom Emmer because he is a fucking nutcase.  He opened his mouth as his first introduction to state voters after becoming the nominee and he unfortunately learned real quick not say anything off the cuff ever again.  But the damage was done and I dont think he was ever going to win after that.  (He said that tipped earners should get a minimum wage below the federal/state one like many other states allow.  Surprise, cutting people's wages during a recession was not welcomed.  And he also said some servers at the restaurant he visited on a jobs tour made $100k a year, as he is of the Bachmann mold.)

[ Parent ]
I think it is not only the IP factor

The tournout can be too a very important factor. This time I think we have lower tournout between the democrats because the race was never as close as in 2006 and many democrats feel less risk. The republicans have 100,000 votes less than in 2006, but tue democrats too, and it is not clear where go all these 200,000 votes. The IP have only 100,000 votes more. I think T Emmer was always far of win.

I see not the turnout in the elections for the state senate and the state house seats what the republicans win, but here can be too a very important factor like we see in races like TX-27 and CA-20.

[ Parent ]
Well I'll be damned
You are correct.  I wont be linking to this person's blog but a ring-winger has a Pioneer Press link (with the article now taken down by that paper) reporting only 58% turn-out in MN this year.

But I dont think this fully applies to the state legislature, but maybe half or so.  Our suburbs vote and turn-out was it was usually most likely.  Suburbanites are going to vote when the economy is collapsing.  They just really didnt like Dayton and he brought down all the DFLers elected there with his tax proposals.  And it's these same upper class voters where the DFLers had been racking up because they are well educated and were not liking the GOP of Bush and Palin.

Voter turn-out was probably down in rural areas where we also got creamed in all the swing seats.  And this where Dayton was supposed to do better and rack up his margins outside of Minneapolis/St. Paul.  Obama, Hatch, and Kerry all got 65% in St. Louis County (Duluth and Iron Range) while Dayton got 62%.  That's weak

[ Parent ]
Not A Reasonable Comparison In St. Louis County.....
Obama, Kerry, and Hatch never had to contend with a third-party candidate who got double-digits statewide.  Dayton did.  Take out the third-party noise, and the margin of Hatch vs. Dayton was a statistically identical 36 points.
[ Parent ]
Let's also follow the money

Emmer had the post Citizen United cash cow at his back in this election, which made him far more competitive then he would have been if McCain-Feingold had been upheld.  The RGA dumped a ton of money to smear Dayton.  Only Dayton's personal wealth kept him in the game in terms of the air wars.  

And now Emmer's pending election contest (Oh yes, he's planning one) will do far more damage to the MN republican party's reputation then anything Emmer said on the campaign trail.  

[ Parent ]
Not really
KSTP did a poll after the election (high margin of error and all that) but the numbers showed that Horner took votes almost exactly equally from the Democrat and the Republican.  I submit that Republican victories were were aided by the 2001 redistricting.  On the national level, there are three heavily DFL districts (4, 5, and 8) and three nominally R districts--2, 6, and 7.  A little irony, the 8th has been won by a Republican and the 7th continues to be held by a Democrat.  Breaking down the state districts, in the 65 contested state Senate elections, Democrats had a narrow plurality of votes.  However, they only won 30 of those 65 races.  This indicates a slight lean to Republicans.  In good years for Democrats, that lean was lost because the Republicans were spread too thin.
[ Parent ]
Amazing comeback.
I am truly impressed. I thought he was finished with politics at the end of his Senate term and when he announced a run for this I chuckled to myself and I remember saying aloud "Yeah have fun with that." I was wrong he was a serious contender all along and was successful. He has been given a second chance, I just hope he does well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
The entire DFL establishment pretty much thought the same thing
Lesson learned, never defy the will of older voters because they will win.
[ Parent ]
And the RGA

literally poured dark money, Citizens United-style, into MN in the last days before the election, smearing and lying about Dayton, constantly.  And they still couldn't make Emmer electable.  

And now Dayton will have the power of incumbency, and the MN republicans have a shallow bench, as they just ejected some of their oldest statesmen from their party.  

[ Parent ]
and a lot of their state legislators
who are experienced and could run are the right-wing ones who aren't very electable.  The ones from the suburbs and could be more appealing were all just elected for the first time in 2010.

I remember reading about how they decided to cut the number of committees in both chambers (really needed, it was kind of ridiculous) and one argument for it was that there weren't enough GOPers who knew what they were doing to lead a committee.

[ Parent ]
And in '12

the best they can field is Marty Siefert against Amy Klobuchar?  We'll be scraping what's left of Marty off the sidewalk.  
[ Parent ]
I honestly can't
see her being defeated. She might win by a much smaller margin--not 15 points, but maybe five--than last time if the environment is just that bad for Democrats, but she seems to be very well liked in the state. Plus, if the Republican bench is that thin, it's not like a name candidate is going to have a leg up. Don't get me wrong--I hope they throw a lot at her up until the very end, only to watch none of it stick, and have it wasted when it could have gone to trying to take down Webb, Tester, or McCaskill. I also hope they try to pump up whatever person takes on Gillibrand.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Me either

And she's a very good politician at getting cross-over votes from all kinds of voters.  And like I said, the MN republican bench is very shallow right now.  Only someone like Jim Ramstad or Arne Carlson could be competitive with her.  Ramstad retired from Congress, and Arne can't be a republican anymore.  
[ Parent ]
Barring A Wellstone-Like Upstart From Out of the Blue....
....who takes the state by storm, Klobuchar will not only win re-election in 2012, she'll win re-election with the same 20-point margin she got in 2006.
[ Parent ]
Hey, I hope you are right.
On a somewhat related now, I remember how I used to argue with this person about politics back on a college admissions board. He was, to be blunt, a huge asshole and extremely irritating in his habits, like in not linking to studies but consistently bringing them up and acting like a propaganda artist for Republican causes. After the 2004 election, he would consistently claim that the Democrats were doomed in 2006, because they would lose seats like that one in Minnesota, and that people like Mark Kennedy were hugely rising stars in the Republican party. I had to chuckle when I learned of the margin she beat him by.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Emmer
should just stop.  At least 2 years ago Coleman was within hundreds of votes and was keeping the Dems 60th vote away from them.  Emmer is accomplishing nothing and has no chance.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
I think he's going to take this to the Galactic Federation
if he loses at the Hague.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I'd love to see him
in a Klingon court of justice.
[ Parent ]
Who was the last person
to win 50% in a governor's race in Minnesota, Arne Carlson?

I know Klobuchar won 50%+ in the 2006 Senate race, but before her, what, 1990?  

Carlson won a landslide in 1994
http://uselectionatlas.org/RES...

Paul Wellstone also narrowly won a majority in '96:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RES...

[ Parent ]
Arne Carlson in 1994....
... was the last Republican get 50% in any statewide race in Minnesota. As for the Senate, Paul Wellstone got 50.3% of the vote in 1996.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Amy Klobuchar
She also got well over 50% in her election of 2006, trouncing Kennedy in a very good Democratic year.
[ Parent ]
wow, that's extremely good info to know
And for a Republican to get over 50% of the vote, they have to be an extremely moderate GOPer who ends up endorsing Obama a decade later.  Fuck I love this state.
[ Parent ]
and now i have to wonder
can any state beat that?  Since 1994, hot damn.
[ Parent ]
Maine is the only state that comes close
In the past three decades, the winner has only gotten a majority twice: Joseph Brennan in 1982 and Angus King in 1998. It's really amazing that they haven't considered IRV, considering.

Due to the propensity for landslides over the past few cycles and the fact that most states don't have strong third-party showings, most states are pretty much excluded from the possibility.

[ Parent ]
Wondering if Secy. Ritchie isn't going to just go ahead and certify the results
Although if I remember right from 2008, Gov. Pawlenty also has to sign off on them.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
That may have been for the Senate race specifically
Franken couldn't take his seat until Pawlenty signed off on it, not sure if it's the same requirement for state races.  
[ Parent ]
Pawlenty has no role

in signing the certificate for governor.  That would be an obvious conflict of interest, but Ritchie has to wait if there is an election contest.  
[ Parent ]
I don't know all the legalities but...
... I would be very surprised if Ritchie would/could certify the results while a legal contest was outstanding.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Agreed, he'll wait
Watch for him to be talked up as a gubernatorial candidate in 2018 or 2014 if Dayton only does one term.  That's what is fabulous about Dayton winning; the hard part is over and we will have an extremely strong field going into the next gubernatorial with every non-Senator statewide office-holder eye-fucking the shit out of the race.  And that's on top of both big city mayors with Rybak getting screwed out of 2010 when, well, I wont get into my bitterness over him not being Governor-elect right now.  (I literally want him to represent me in some capacity until he dies; Robert Byrd style.)

And as for a little more election junky info, Klobuchar will be going places and Id think most are expecting to get to fill her seat by 2024.  That'll either be Rybak or state Auditor Rebecca Otto, who is so tier one awesome that she lives on a farm in the Greater Metro and it even has one of those god damned windmills on it.

[ Parent ]
Ritchie & the Canvassing Board
Ritchie, as head of the Canvassing Board, will certify that Dayton "had the most lawful votes" on December 14.  That doesn't garner a certificate of election, though.  If Emmer sues (called an election contest), the case will go to court with no winner declared.  

Far righties want Emmer to contest because 1) they think they have a case that there was fraud that tipped the election to Dayton and 2) the newly elected Republican legislature can pass some hyper-partisan bills (reapportionment, budget, voting changes, anti-abortion and perhaps anti-gay marriage) that would be signed by lame duck governor Tim Pawlenty.  

[ Parent ]
The pressure of Emmer
While Emmer could contest this election, there will be strong pressure for him to concede as soon as the Canvassing Board finished their work.  

The margin is going to be over 9000.  Anybody who looks at this race objectively sees that Dayton won.  Emmer's fundraising to pay for a recount has been difficult so far, but many will not throw "good money after bad" to help him pay for an election contest.  

Many have given Emmer a pass up until now because of the recount of 2008, which reversed an apparent lead in the recount.  However, the margin here, in recount terms, is huge and there will be many (including me) that say it was fine for Emmer to make sure of the result, but now is the time to move on.

[ Parent ]
Emmer withdraws almost 2,600 frivolous challenges
MINNEAPOLIS - Republican Tom Emmer's attorneys pulled back almost 2,600 ballot challenges in the undecided governor's race Saturday, a day after a statewide recount failed to dent Democrat Mark Dayton's 8,770-vote lead.

http://www.startribune.com/pol...

Reading the tea leaves I think Emmer will concede next week after the Canvassing Board certifies the results. Reports are he is having a hard time raising money for a hopeless recount and even the most hardcore Republicans are starting to realize that the backlash caused by delaying Dayton's term would doom the Reps in 2012.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

the fact that the Emmer campaign
is bothering to withdraw their ballot challenges should be pretty indicative.
[ Parent ]
A diary I read on dKos today
said that Supreme Court Justice Anderson basically called out his former colleague Magnuson, and said he would hold the team "accountable" if frivolous challenges weren't withdrawn.

http://theuptake.org/2010/12/0...
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

[ Parent ]
That was Anderson's way

of saying I'm dusting off Rule 11 if you send us crap challenges.

But Denise Rielly's dressing down of Tony Trimble was a thing of beauty to watch.  

[ Parent ]
What is Rule 11?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Its a rule

in several states, Minnesota included, that imposes sanctions for frivolous court action.  Even though Justice Anderson would recuse himself if the Canvassing Board work was challenged in court, my reading of his lecture to Magnuson was basically, if you bring a challenge after all this work we do, you are inviting a Rule 11 invocation.  
[ Parent ]
just how liberal is MN?
the obvious belief is that's it's a bastion of progressiveness, but it's somewhat difficult to tell considering the annual impact of the IPM.  pawlenty survived, albiet narrowly in 2006 and won in 2002.  coleman won in 2002, granted there were some crazy circumstances behind that race though.  looking at presidential elections, kerry only won by three percent, gore by 2.5%.  granted K and Obama did well, but those were good years, with no influence of the IMP and it might be possible that it was simply a regression to the norm caused by a good year for the party.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Not very Liberal
Besides Minneapolis, one of the most liberal cities in the country, Minnesota is has more moderate Democrats than liberal Democrats IMHO. A lot of Minnesota Dems are populists but not really progressive.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
It's a state that's more reliably
Democratic than it is liberal; Democrats have won it in every Presidential election since 1972. In fact Democrats have only lost the state 3 times since the great depression. There's a strong vein of farmer populism that has existed peacefully and constructively with the urban liberalism of the Minneapolis area.  
[ Parent ]
It also has a big conservative base for such a reliably D state
The middle part of Minnesota, radiating outward from the MSP exurbs, is solid red and elects conservative Republicans like Kline and Tea Party warriors like Bachmann. Then, once you get further outstate than that, you hit the moderate farmer Democrats of the "L" and the union heavy northeast.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't say a "big" base.
And the base they have, sans a couple exurban counties (Wright, Carver)is not all that conservative. The Republicans have one pocket of counties where they usually win, but Democrats represent a LOT of the areas in most of those Counties. Republicans have a floor of about 35% here. Mark Kennedy was an incumbent 3-term congressmen running for an open senate seat held by an (then) unpopular DFL Senator. He didn't even pull 38% of the vote against a County Attorney. I have a feeling that anyone challenging Klobuchar in 2012 will have a hard time even matching that performance. If Bachmann decides to run, She might even struggle to get 33%. The ceiling for any Republican is probably 48% or 49% (this was covered in the Arne Carlson posts below). There is a pocket of the tea-flavored Republicans here, but it's small. The knee-jerk reaction default vote is for the DFLer. The issues arrive when there is infighting between the L, the F, and the D segments of the party, because they are vastly, vastly different entities.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
But!
The GOP here has many more liberal Republicans than conservative ones as well.  Oh how I love the Override Six Story as we passed a major multi-billion dollar transportation bill to fund all the new light rails and heavy duty road construction while having to override a Pawlenty veto by six votes in the state house.

The suburbs here could elect GOPers for a very long time to come, but they wont be scary wingnut GOPers.

[ Parent ]
So you guys might get gay marriage after all?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Nope
The whole idea was that our DFL majorities were very solid going into 2010 so we elect Dayton, we could probably pass gay marriage.  But alas, our majorities were very wide but paper thin so with us losing the state legislature, now it looks like we will have an anti-marriage equality amendment on the ballot for 2012 as a ballot question requires a simple majority of both chambers with no governor signature.  We expected one extreme but got the complete opposite.

At least i'm in good company with Dr. King and our fabulous ladies of the Seneca Falls Convention.   ::sigh::  Fucking conservatives, always wanting to conserve the wrong sorts of things.  At least Im underemployed, have the perfect campaign strategy and know enough powerful gays to get me a job.  Fight gay marriage all you want as you'll be keeping this queer employed!

[ Parent ]
My prediction
We'll regain the state legislatures in 2012 while also failing the gay marriage amendment that year.  (Very big differences between us and  CA.  While we are less liberal, our liberalness relies much less heavily on Catholic Hispanics and Evangelical African-Americans.)
[ Parent ]
Well, it's probably a good sign
that in 2006, South Dakota only narrowly approved a gay marriage ban, 52-48. With 6 years and presumably a more liberal state...fingers crossed.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I doubt any amendment would pass

in 2012.  To get it in the Constitution, it has to be voted affirmatively by a majority of votes cast.  Blank votes count as no, and the ballot questions are at the end of the ballot.  

It would also do wonders for energized liberals and progressives, especially with the popular Amy Klobuchar on the ballot.  

[ Parent ]
The one in 2008 appeared
right after the statewide races and Congressional, IIRC.
[ Parent ]
It was approved

in '08, and then just by around 52% if I recall.  There was a heavy marketing campaign by Ducks Unlimited in the 7th in favor of it too.

But if the republican legislature tries that in '12, they will poison their relationship with the DFL, if it isn't by an Emmer election contest by then.  

[ Parent ]
Minnesota
Is FULL of pro-gun, pro-union, pro-hunting, pro-mining moderate Democrats. It is not an overly religious state, which really dampens Republican support here. It is not a liberal bastion, outside of Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth proper.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Well, its actually one of the more religious states in the country
It's just that we're ELCA Lutheran which is one of the most liberal sects of Christianity.  I will always love walking by the downtown hq of the Fortune 500 company "Thrivent Financial for Lutherans."
[ Parent ]
I don't see it
Yea, in farm country you get a lot of church goers. But really, in in the Iron Range, and in a lot of urban areas, a LOT of people simply don't go to church. I have quite a few friends that call themselves Lutherans, but they haven't been to a service in years and years. They may not be irreligious, but it certainly is not a sign of devout faith.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Im from Wright County
They make up for all statewide numbers in religiosity.
[ Parent ]
A poli sci prof
Has shown me a map twice now of the US in correlation to pro-governement vs anti-government.  I wish I could remember the political scientist who came up with the whole theory but MN is one of, along with IA and WI, the only states in the country that have had a strong pro-government bias in every region of the state since the study.

We aren't as liberal as MA, NY, or CA, but we're probably more pro-government than they are.  In 2008, with the economy collapsing, we even passed a constitutional amendment to raise the sales tax to help the arts and environment.  I wont lessen their cause, but those sure as shit aren't health care or education.

[ Parent ]
See the census results
You can pretty much tell that is the truth based on participation. Also voting percentage is highest in those 3 states

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
You show 'em!
A little pissed off, MN Republicans?

http://www.kttc.com/Global/sto...

Seems a little stupid; Carlson even backed Obama in 2008 and will probably do so again in 2012. What's the point in doing this, since Carlson and Durenburger say they're not even Republicans anymore?

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

Is that food I smell?
Coming from the washing machine?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Bah, I should have posted a link way back when
About Emmer being the GOPer everyone hates within his caucus at the state House but now i dont know where I found it  :(.  He is a very atypical MN GOPer and the moderate sensible ones in the state house really disliked him for that.
[ Parent ]
Is this what you're looking for?
[ Parent ]
Carlson
The man is probably the single most popular political figure in Minnesota. A populist, center-left Republican. I would honestly vote for him over ANY Democrat for any race. The dude is just that awesome. It is unfortunate the Republicans have banished fine men and women such as him.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Id have an extremely tough time debating who to vote for myself
If it was Carlson vs a typical DFLer.  And I dont envision myself ever voting non DFL/Democrat but Carlson would do it.
[ Parent ]
You are to the left of me
Which is fine. I am more aligned with the "L" of the "DFL", and hold some moderate to conservative positions on specific issues. I don't vote straight-ticket DFL, although pretty close. I have a moral objection to Keith Ellison, and would vote for anyone over him. He is everything that is wrong with politicians, even though his voting record is fine.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
How is he everything
that is wrong with politicians? I've never heard him attacked for any other reason than his faith.  
[ Parent ]
I couldn't care less if he is a Muslim
or if he was Hindu (my state senator is Hindu, and I voted for him a couple times), Jewish (I voted for Franken), Christian (numberous candidates), or atheist (I myself am not a religious man at all). I think he is a condescending dickbag. He talked down to his (very personally likable)opponents in a debate I attended in 2006. Every public appearance he has, he refuses to take questions, his staffers don't answer emails (his predicessor took time to hand write some letters to people that wrote him. the U-DFL (The University of Minnesota arm of the DFL party, which has a HUGE volunteer force, voter registration drive, and and large numbers of activits) tried to get him to make an appearance in both 2008 and 2010, he declined both, dispite Amy Klobuchar, Rebecca Otto, and Al Franken accepting similar requests. He is a snob, and a douchebag in every sense of the word. Give me a politician that actually relates to people, and talks to them, not talks over them and presumes to talk FOR them. I really really dislike Keith Ellison, and it has absolutely nothing to do with his religion.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
When they are

kicking out people like David Jennings you know the party is splintering fast.  Watch for a 2012 wave that will wash both houses back to DFL control.  
[ Parent ]
Can you
elaborate for those of us who aren't familiar with Minnesota politics?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
David Jennings

is, or maybe now, was a Minnesota republican, member of the Minnesota house and served as speaker.  He is a conservative, and is in no way a liberal or progressive.  But apparently endorsing Horner was enough to get him ejected.

It is interesting that at the MN republican state central committee meeting, they tossed out a former governor (Carlson), U.S. Senator, (Durenberger), and MN speaker of the house (Jennings).  Over Tom Emmer.  Speaks to their values and political acumen, if I do say so.  

[ Parent ]
Was trying to get Pawlenty to stay in office.
Until there's a certified winner, Pawlenty would stay in office. I've seen speculation that Emmer was trying to drag everything out long enough to get Pawlenty briefly in office with a completely Republican-controlled legislature.
If Emmer can stop the succession

only challenging some votes what are not enough for change the result of the race, then, the democrats from Minnesota should challenge some votes in every single race for the state senate and the state house what the republicans win.

Yes, an all out counter attack
Great idea, but come on we're talking about the democrats here.
[ Parent ]
Well, it would have to be accompanied by an appropriate PR effort.
We can't just go in guns a-blazin' and expect people to excuse us...unless the other guys already have their guns a-blazin'.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
The Greater MN

editorial boards have already served Emmer notice on this one--basically that you get a recount, but don't push it further.  

The bigger issue I see is that Emmer is in such a financial situation that he basically has no choice now but to do the bidding of his republican benefactors.  He isn't personally wealthy, and had no plan B if he lost, so he needs to stay in the good graces of the republican party.  

[ Parent ]
I guess Minnesota is now sick of recounts too?
after Florida (most infamously) and Washington?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I would agree

and say that if it looks like a ploy to keep Pawlenty in office, it will invoke a 2012 "Minnesota Massacre" visited upon the MN republicans.  
[ Parent ]
MN-Gov: Dayton Wins Recount | 97 comments

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