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SSP Daily Digest: 12/3

by: Crisitunity

Fri Dec 03, 2010 at 3:02 PM EST


FL-Sen: This probably isn't the way that GOP state Senate President Mike Haridopolos, acting very candidate-ish this week, wanted to kick off a Senate bid. He just had to settle with the state's Commission on Ethics, admitting to a litany of campaign finance violations for failing to properly fill out financial disclosure statements. As far as a penalty goes, though, expect a slap on the wrist; the state Senate's Rules Committee, rather than the Commission, actually assigns the penalty, and Rules is now led by Haridopolos's GOP Senate President predecessor, John Thrasher.

PA-Sen: There's word of a rather Ron Johnson-style random rich guy interested in taking on Bob Casey Jr. in 2012: John Moran, who owns a logistics and warehousing company in central Pennsylvania and is willing to spend some of his own money to get elected. In other words, another federal-government-hater whose riches are largely dependent on an infrastructure put in place by the federal government (in this case, ex-Rep. Bud Shuster, who's pretty single-handedly responsible for the creation of central Pennsylvania's luxurious web of highways and the rise of trucking as the backbone of that area's economy). Also, if you want to look back at a comparison of the 2010 Senate race vs. the 2006 Senate race (where Casey was elected), Greg Giroux has a very interesting spreadsheet showing which counties had the biggest drops in vote percentages and raw vote numbers.

RI-Sen: We mentioned a few weeks ago that John Robitaille, last seen coming close in the gubernatorial contest won by indie Lincoln Chafee, was on the wish list for a GOP Senate bid against Sheldon Whitehouse, and now he's saying out loud that he's "seriously considering" it. (Of course, Robitaille's closeness mostly had to do with a split in the left-of-center vote between Chafee and Dem candidate Frank Caprio, but let's just let the NRSC think they can win this one in hopes they spend some money here.)

UT-Sen: It looks like Orrin Hatch is not only running for re-election in 2012 (where retirement had been considered a possibility for the septuagenarian, no doubt facing a serious teabagging this cycle), but ramping up for a fierce fight at the state nominating convention (which is where Bob Bennett lost, not even making it to the primary). One of his key allies, state GOP party chair Dave Hansen, is reportedly about to resign from that position and start working directly for Hatch's campaign.

MN-Gov: Tom Emmer held a press conference today in the face of a winding-down recount where the numbers didn't budge, and instead of throwing in the towel, he said he's going to fight on to the end, and threatened to keep on fighting even after the end, alluding to the possibility of legal action over the ballot reconciliation issue (saying the recount was merely "a step in the process"). Meanwhile, seeking to be the ones wearing the white hats here, Mark Dayton's team said they'll withdraw all their remaining frivolous challenges. That's a total of only 42 challenges, though, as more than 98% of the frivolous challenges came from Emmer's team.

NY-01: After another day of looking at challenged ballots, Tim Bishop continued to add to his lead. He netted another 12 votes, bringing his overall lead to 271 over Randy Altschuler. Challenges to a total of 174 ballots were dropped by both campaigns, leaving about 1,500.

NY-15: Usually there isn't much speculation that a Governor is about to run for a U.S. House seat, unless it's an at-large state or the Governor has fallen way down the food chain. If you're talking about David Paterson, he may have fallen even further down the food chain than that, though (into dogcatcher realm). At any rate, Paterson quashed any speculation that he would run for Charles Rangel's seat (despite his dynastic links to the seat, as his dad, Basil Paterson, is a key ally to Rangel as two of the so-called "Gang of Four"). It's not entirely clear that Rangel won't still be running in 2012, considering how he seems to utterly lack the 'shame' gene, although Paterson suggested state Assemblyman Keith Wright and city councilor Inez Dickens as possible replacments.

Committees: Both the NRSC and DSCC are starting the 2012 cycle from a place of parity: deep, deep in debt. The DSCC has $713K on hand and $6.7 million in debt, while the NRSC has $519K on hand and $6 million in debt. Even worse numbers are in the House: the DCCC has $19.4 million in debt and the NRCC has $12 million in debt.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 12/3
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Downwithtyranny on Israel as head of DCCC
If Howie Klein is right, and Steve Israel belongs to a House caucus with secret bipartisan membership, where members pledge not to politically target other members, I am worried the DCCC will pass up some opportunities.

There has to be a reason
why Pelosi picked him over DWS.  Pelosi did not just pick some guy for the heck of it to run the DCCC.  Also, as a NYer he can fundraise heavily like Schumer did for the DSCC.  Finally, Downwithtyranny has some grudge against Steve Israel because he is an ex-Blue Dog who voted for the Bush Tax Cuts and that therefore disqualifies him as DCCC chairman for some reason.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Also, DWS
has a nonaggression pact with FL Republicans similar to Reid's over in NV, except in FL's case, such a pact could cost us several seats after redistricting.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
PA-Sen
Is it me, or do the Philly numbers (06 vs. 10) look ridiculously similar?  To the thousand?  Wow.

the outliers
Sestak's best counties vs Casey were Philly (where he got 0.1% less than Casey), Delaware (his home) and Erie. Sestak's worst counties vs Casey were Somerset, Mifflin, Elk, Bedford, and Juniata; all rural western counties.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
Casey has good odds.
He's the son of a Governor, he has been a pretty active advocate for the state, and he also is anti-abortion (fortunately though, he does not go crazy with this ideology like Santorum, who had a picture of a 5-month fetus on his desk), which plays well in western PA and the Johnstown area.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I was curious
to see if anyone had a detailed breakdown on the NY-Senate races or was working on one; i.e. summaries of where we held close races, where we lost them, where we picked up seats, where we had losses. Seems like Democrats have made gains the last few cycles in Queens and among the old dinosaur, liberal NYC Republicans in general, and, seeing as how the Republican's majority still depends on holding several different massively Democratic leaning seats, (such as a 65% Obama seat in Rochester, and a 77% Obama one in Buffalo), their majority looks like a temporal last gasp. Though I expect them to a cede a slightly more Democrat-favorable federal congressional map come 2012 in order to get the most grotesque gerrymander imaginable in order to try and protect their narrow majority.

Also, does anyone have a breakdown of what the national vote totals were like in house races? I know Republicans won 50.16% of the Senatorial vote, and 48.16% of the gubernatorial vote; hardly landslides, bare eked out majorities and pluralities even in this environment.  


greenpapers...
Has it as 52.1%-44.8%...

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/...


[ Parent ]
The party changes in New York:
SD-3 - Brian Foley (D) defeated
SD-7 - Craig Johnson (D) defeated
SD-11 - Frank Padavan (R) defeated
SD-38 - open (R) seat won by D
SD-48 - Darrell Aubertine (D) defeated
SD-60 - Antoine Thompson (D) defeated

This is assuming all the current victories stay the same, which is probably a pretty safe bet at this point. The two seats that the Democrats won were in Queens and Rockland County, respectively. Foley and Johnson were in Suffolk and Nassau Counties, respectively, Aubertine's district is in the southern end of NY-23 (Jefferson/Oswego/part of St. Lawrence), and Thompson was in Buffalo.

Other close races:

SD-35 - Westchester County district, the Dem won 55-45.
SD-37 - Also Westchester, the Dem held on by a few hundred votes.
SD-40 - The open seat that Greg Ball narrowly won.
SD-49 - Onondaga-based district; David Valesky won 53-47.
SD-55 - The Rochester seat that Republicans somehow manage to hold on to; the R won 53-47.
SD-58 - Erie County seat where the D was beaten in the primary; Dems held it 43-40, with 17% going to the primary loser on the Independence line.


[ Parent ]
So what is the State Sen. composed of now?
How many GOP:Dems are there?  Let's hope this time around they redistrict the State Senate to more accurately reflect the state's population and that the state party tries hard to win in disctricts it should be able to win.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Assuming the numbers hold
It will be 32R : 30D.

Dean Skelos and the Republicans will regain control.

My guess is that they maintain and tweak the very highly effective and very obscenely gerrymandered state level map in exchange for some concessions to Dems on the US congress map.


[ Parent ]
The Dems there better not be too afraid
for a mid-decade redistricting of the state senate.  No fucking way does gay marriage get held back yet again only because of the most effective gerrymander in the country.

[ Parent ]
Even if we knock off Republicans, we have a ways to go.
There are still four Democrats around who voted no on gay marriage (Huntley, Diaz, Kruger, Addabbo). Which means that assuming all newly-elected Dems are pro-gay, we'd need a 36-26 majority.

This assumes, of course, that Republicans continue to receive the order to vote "No" from the queen of their hive. They are the Borg. Resistance is futile.  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
The two Queens votes are reachable
as are probably one or two Republicans from LI.

One Republican was defeated by a pro-gay marriage Democrat in Queens and in Rockland County, a pro-gay marriage Dem won a GOP seat, so we're right around where we were.


[ Parent ]
Well, in a way
we're 2 votes closer since the vote:

Foley lost (-1)
Johnson lost (-2)
Thompson lost (-3)

Monserrate replaced by Peralta (+1)
Stachowski lost to Kennedy (+2)
Carlucci beat Vanderhoef (+3)
Avella beat Padavan (+4)
Onorato replaced by Gianaris (+5)

so I believe we are 6 votes away.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
How does it affect ideological composition?
I seem to recall Aubertine being in the conservative wing, but how about the others, including the seats we picked up?

[ Parent ]
Johnson, Foley and Thompson's losses moved the place to the right
but that's pretty well balanced by Avella and Carlucci, and Tim Kennedy's defeat of Stachowski in Buffalo. I'm still surprised he won btw  

[ Parent ]
I just want to say, this women is going to go far!


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

According to Dan Froomkin on HuffPost:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Corporate cash is flooding into the California attorney general's race, a sign both of the growing emphasis that big business is putting on state-level legal action and the particular threat posed by up-and-coming multiracial Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

So-called "down-ticket" races on state ballots rarely draw big national money, but huge corporate interests are funneling more than $1 million through a Republican campaign committee based in Virginia to buy anti-Harris campaign ads on Los Angeles County television stations.

The ad (see below) from the Republican State Leadership Committee -- one of the many such entities revolving in GOP political guru Karl Rove's orbit -- targets Harris, currently the San Francisco district attorney, for her opposition to the death penalty. But it's not hard to figure what its funders really care about. The committee has lately been getting its biggest contributions from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, major health insurers, big tobacco and manufacturing interests.

It goes on to say how the CA and national GOP feared how she could be a prospective candidate for Gov or Senator some day and wanted to tear her down quickly.  Also:

"They are targeting Kamala Harris, but more importantly, they are supporting Steve Cooley.... They know that he is the guy who's going to go easy on the tobacco companies and oil companies."

Here's the ad they ran:

Thank goodness that CA voters don't listen to corporate-sponsored campaigns.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I hope the new
State leadership in CA does do away with the death penalty.  We did it here in NJ and there's been no negative consequences whatsoever.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
NJ
hadn't executed people in years though. Might not go over so well in a state were it is more common.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Could someone please
explain to me why this woman is garnering so much attention on this blog. She she that fantastic a candidate? Without a shadow of a doubt she's young, attractive, non-caucasian and articulate but why is she considered so highly in the democratic base?

I feel the need to explain that this isn't in anyway snarky or rhetorical. I genuinely want to know more about this woman.


[ Parent ]
She's
has a very liberal view when it comes to crime fighting. And its not just her opposition to the death penalty. She doesn't subscribe to the "law and order" angle of crime fighting that you would usually expect. Harris isn't a big believer in the theory that you should throw every single criminal, no matter how small the crime in jail. Basically, Harris is the attorney general the Democratic base dreams of.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I
think she's a rising star. I heard her speak on Hardball once and she I thought she had a bit of Obama in her. She'll probably be on the national stage sometime down the road.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I don't really see that she has
She was in a close race, which is the vast majority of posts about her on here.  There were hardly any before the election.

She was not a great candidate, and her future is extremely limited -- unless she impresses as AG.  Every other Dem running won easily... over 10%.  Harris won the very important office of Attorney General by less than 1%.  As with anybody, I hope she does a tremendous job and becomes widly popular because of it, but other than that, I don't see how any Dem base type would want her to run for Gov or Senate.  We have people with basically the same politics with far better vote getting potential.

(True, she ran against the strongest Republican, but he wasn't all that much stronger than Carly or Abel.)


[ Parent ]
She gets a lot more attention on other left-leaning blogs
as a potential future POTUS.

I have no evaluation of her, positive or negative. But there are some who are gaga about her, e.g.

http://www.redroom.com/blog/ay...

Harris is the first woman District Attorney in San Francisco's history, and as the first African American woman in California to hold the office. In office she's not only lowered crime, but done it with sensitivity to the community, to victims, and to offenders. It says a lot that a former public defender like me is completely enamored with her.


[ Parent ]
She is
a Democrat who has a view on criminal justice that too many others in this party are afraid of for fear they would be labeled "soft on crime."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Emmer Lawyer says challenges to vote could pick-up significantly
They want to get above the margin of victory in challenged ballots to have a case.

http://minnesotaindependent.co...

Most are probably deemed frivolous and would be ruled on pretty quickly, though.


well, Im not a lawyer
but I'd guess quicker than the others.  And maybe once the Dayton camp has themselves at a point where counting the rest don't matter, they can argue that he should be seated right away because who won is no longer in dispute.

[ Parent ]
his legal strategy is a joke
He is way too far behind to make a convincing case on this.

[ Parent ]
wups, Im checking all my sites and keep finding more
Here's the Emmer crew walking that back and using the former Chief Justice of the MN Supreme Court to be the spokesman to do so.

[ Parent ]
really bad employment report
Unemployment up to 9.8 percent, net job growth only 39,000 nationwide in November. This is "by far the worst post WWII employment recession."

I doubt unemployment will be below 10 percent in 2012. The economy has to add 140,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth. To start bringing unemployment down we'd need job growth around 200,000 per month for a while.

Although Republicans control the House going forward, I still think Americans will blame Obama more for high unemployment.  


They also revised
Oct and Sept numbers UP, so it's mixed.  Still, they need to use every amount of leverage to try to run against a GOP House.  They didn't give us a chance to do the right things so why should we treat them much better?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I'm hopeful it's a blip
especially with the excellent reports w/r/t Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales -- along with the reaction of the stock market.

Wish I could find it, but just before, the only leading indicators that were down were housing-related.


[ Parent ]
It's probably an outlier...
Remember that these numbers are nothing more than just polls...

Gallup had a great self-reported employment number for the month along with every other leading indicators show that things are looking better, but these reports are not helpful since they reinforce fears in others.


[ Parent ]
not likely
The employment numbers were improving steadily each month until May. For the last six months they have not been good: click here for the chart.


[ Parent ]
Census workers
Employment numbers were skewed upwards early in the year by the hiring of Census workers and downwards later in the year by those workers being let go. If you adjust the numbers the trend has been slightly positive.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Some more charts
http://boomdoomeconomy.blogspo...


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
It didn't start dropping in 1983
Until September. There is plenty of time. But obviously that is not infinite.

[ Parent ]
Apologies
September 1983 was the first drop below 9 percent. The first decline was actually March.

[ Parent ]
Wow
My table reading skills are awful.

1982 Oct 10.4 Nov 10.8 Dec 10.8  
1983 Jan 10.4 Feb 10.4 Mar 10.3  


[ Parent ]
I almost wonder
if people who are concerned about spending and/or are paying down manageable debt and/or increasing their savings before spending big on anything else are going to provide a nice boost to the economy in six to twelve months. After all, after a certain point, you are going to want to buy stuff and do things, especially if you yourself feel personally secure.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Strangely enough,
the unemployment rate drop can be misleading because sometimes, it represents people who stop looking for work at all, and that's very bad. I don't remember where, but I remember that reading that more people were looking for work than had been in recent weeks, which might not be a bad sign. I mean, yes, we need more jobs, but it's hard to say what, exactly, will happen with the unemployment number. If state and local governments can stop shedding jobs, it'd be a pretty big help.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Yesterday, there was a discussion
on flip-flopping and trying to have it both ways on the issue of reproductive rights in a sad attempt to satisfy everyone.  Well, I found this video that cleverly super-imposes Rudy's stance on abortion during the GOP primary debates with that hilarious scene from the Simpsons episode about the '96 presidential race.



Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


MA-Sen
Patrick out. Probably a good thing.

http://news.bostonherald.com/n...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


He's only 54 and has 4 years as Governor in front of him, and if he wants...
...to be a Senator, it's plausible Kerry will retire when his seat is up in 2014.  The timing would be perfect for Patrick, and he can certainly win a primary as a sitting two-term Governor.

Patrick will have opportunities for further office if he wants them.

And there are no term limits for Governor in MA, so he can run for a 3rd term if he wants to.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]

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