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NC-Gov: McCrory (R) Leads Hypothetical Primary and General

by: DavidNYC

Fri Dec 03, 2010 at 8:12 AM EST


Public Policy Polling (PDF) (11/19-21, North Carolina voters, no trendlines):

Bev Perdue (D-inc): 37
Pat McCrory (R): 49
Undecided: 14

Bev Perdue (D-inc): 40
Tom Fetzer (R): 42
Undecided: 19
(MoE: 4.3%)

Bev Perdue nosed beat former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory two years ago by a little over 3%. Now, two solid years into the shittiest economy in the better part of a century, Perdue's job approval sucks hard (33-49) and McCrory is looking good. I think it's pretty safe to say Perdue would have been blown out of the water had she been up for re-election this year - obviously the million-dollar question is whether she can recover before Nov. 2012. I don't feel too good about that prospect.

Pat McCrory (R): 37
Tom Fetzer (R): 12
Virginia Foxx (R): 11
Sue Myrick (R): 6
Fred Smith (R): 4
Cherie Berry (R): 3
Patrick McHenry (R): 3
Phil Berger (R): 2
Someone else/undecided: 22
(MoE: 4.9%)

McCrory is also looking pretty good in a hypothetical GOP primary (PDF), with former Raleigh mayor Tom Fetzer and batshit crazy Rep. Virginia Foxx way behind in the low teens. But as PPP suggests, McCrory may not even face a challenge for the Republican nod.
DavidNYC :: NC-Gov: McCrory (R) Leads Hypothetical Primary and General
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NC-Gov: McCrory (R) Leads Hypothetical Primary and General | 71 comments
Woulda been nice
To see them ask Cooper and Moore instead.
Ugly
No other word for it, and as much as my eternally optimistic collegues on this blog may deny it, there is no sign that the economy or job market will be bouncing back in any meaningful way, private sector jobs grew at 30% of forcast and unemployment (u3) ticked UP to 9.8%!
Yeah, there's no way Perdue can recover by tomorrow!
Good thing the election is still 23 months away :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'm not saying its going to get worse
But I see no sign that it's going to be significantly better either, Reagan & Clinto saw huge drops in U3 before facing re-election after their own midterm blowouts. The fact that all projections show u3 staying high (8+% at least through '11) and the fact that (for this month at least) things ARE getting worse...we are not going to get some magic bounce back and the electorate we face in '12 is going to look a lot more like '10 than we faced in '96. That means making some very hard decisions about how we do things to maintain our hold on the WH and Senate and NOT simply keep muddling along like '10 was some kind of bizarre aberation and everything will be okey-dokey in just a few more months!
[ Parent ]
Wow, I"M too optimistic?
Just read this on Daily Kos: "it's still widely believed that the unemployment rate will be above 9 percent at the end of 2011, and above 8 percent at the end of 2012"

No way any incumbent president wins reelection with economic numbers like that, even vs batshit crazy or amateur hour.

[ Parent ]
I sound like chicken little
But seriously, we are standing in quicksand and everyone seems to act like its going to dry up and second.
[ Parent ]
Then why are you here?
If you are so damn certain it's going to be a blood bath, why not just pack it in now and buy yourself a Sudoku book to occupy your time?

No joke, your constant appearance of running around with your hair on fire screaming at the top of your lungs is getting old, and quick. The unemployment numbers weren't good at all, but it's one month. Did you know that they revised them upwards for October and September? That's still not good enough, but it's better. And we're not even into 2011 yet. Do you really think that Obama is going down if unemployment comes back even somewhat strongly on a consistent basis starting in the summer of 2011, adding 150-200,000 jobs, at minimum, per month? That wouldn't be enough, but it'd be better than we have seen in a long time, and people would probably start to feel a lot better, even if the recovery hadn't reached them just yet. But that wouldn't matter to people like you, because you'd already have us giving up on races all over the country.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
You're right
I'm sure everything will be fine, just stay the course - that argument worked so well for Bush in Iraq...
[ Parent ]
That's cute.
Also totally irrelevant.

Most people were predicting that 2010 would be an average to good year for Democrats at this point and well into 2011 based solely on what economic and political conditions looked like at the time. They were perfectly reasonably assumptions for the environment in December 2008, but they ended up being totally irrelevant to November 2010. I would not want to be in Purdue's shoes right now, but unless you have a crystal ball and can tell us what the economy will look like in November 2012, I'd be careful about the whole dire pronouncements thing.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
I keep thinking that
Just Because You're Paranoid Doesn't Mean the World Isn't Out to Get You.

If the job/economy projections are anywhere close to acurate we are in for another world of hurt and we need to prepare ourselves to weather the storm.

IMO that means taking a hard look at what states we HAVE to carry to get to 270 EVs & 50 Senate seats. If that means throwing people like Purdue and McCaskill under the bus and reallocating resources to win states like OH, MI & FL for Obama instead of NC, IN & VA then so be it.

To muddle along thinking the terrain is going to improve enough that we can stay the course and survive is outrageously stupid, again IMO.

[ Parent ]
That strategy was discredited
in '00 and '04.

However, Rs would love it if 2 years before the next election, Ds were to declare that they're ready to withdraw. Neville Chamberlain didn't even go that far in '38.

[ Parent ]
It's not like I'm the only one
Harkin: "I just think, if he caves on this, then I think that he's gonna have a lot of swimming upstream... He would then just be hoping and praying that Sarah Palin gets the nomination."

I'm not proposing compitulation, I'm talking about taking a serious and clear headed look at where we are at and how we actually win in '12. I hear a lot of talk about teabaggers or palin and some hopeful talk about the economy (that sound more like prayers than a plan to me).

Even with the U3 at 8% Obama CAN get 270 EVs & Dems can hold 50 Senate seats, but to think it won't require some very uncomfortable decisions is crazy.

[ Parent ]
Just what the hell are you talking about?
Virtually nobody here would deny that if the economy is still hurting as badly as it is now, his reelection will be tough, although not impossible. But you seem to take it to the next level, advocating that the Democrats give up right now.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I NEVER SAID GIVE UP
I'm talking about culling the herd to protect what we need to hold the WH & Senate.
[ Parent ]
Here's what you fail to understand:
cutting the herd two years ahead of the election--before a single ad has been aired, before a single campaign appearance has been made, before any new voters have been registered, before the other side has even settled on a candidate--is giving up, especially when you are talking about incumbents. It is an absolutely senseless position to argue, no matter what you try to use to prove it. Stop making it, if only to stop embarrassing yourself.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
For you,
weathering the storm means giving up well in advance. That's what makes your comments so unbelievably frustrating and irritating.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I disagree
Weathering the storm means protecting those things you MUST have and if necessary sacrificing those you don't. IN, NC & VA are nice, but unnecessary - FL, OH & MI are absolutly necessary. I'm not saying just cut the others lose, but be prepared to do it when necessary and don't waste your resources on stuff you might drop later. Ditto in the Senate where Tester, McCaskill & Ben Nelson will likely need to fend for themselves so we can get to 50 with people like Webb/Kane, Brown, Bill Nelson & Stabenow (plus pushes in friendlier terrain like MA, ME & NV in case some of those fail or others bulkwarks like ND/PA/WI/MN stumble like Feingold did this year (and Goddess help us if people like Akaka, Bingaman & Carper retire.
[ Parent ]
Thus my reference to Neville Chamberlain
Earlier, you said that your analysis was limited to MO. Now you're advocating that we give up in lots of purple states.

While there is a place for political compromise in policy, what you're advocating is appeasement with nothing in return.

Giving up on certain candidates allows Republicans to focus their resources on others -- and even expand their playing field.

The same actions that can help Democratic candidates like McCaskill and Perdue will also help candidates like Webb, Tester, Conrad, Brown, etc.  

[ Parent ]
Analysis
I'm not talking about an intra-state analysis of why certain states are no longer smart bets for limited resources, I'll discus that in the 2-3 states I know well enough to give meaninful opinions (MO, VA & MD). But we are talking about National strategy, the Obama won in '08 amount to 358 EVs (after reapportionment). Shooting for 350+ is a dangerous ploy vs protecting the 300 or so you'd have with all the states Gore carried plus FL & OH that Bush "carried" twice.

Also, for Obama & the DSCC to play (and likely lose) in states like Missouri will cost significantly MORE money than it will cost the GOP to play and WIN, we have to go network in major DMA markets & mobilize urban voters (a very expensive proposition vs the church groups the GOP can rely on in Missouri).

[ Parent ]
And the cost to try to take a seat in
Virginia, Montana, Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio, and to defend seats in Massachusetts, Nevada, and Arizona, among others, becomes quite a bit cheaper when you simply give them the seat in Missouri for free.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
And I don't want to be Chicken Little
But what I'm looking for (not just on this site but among the party at large) is a sign of understanding that '12 is going to look more like '10 than '08 and that we need to make substantive changes in the communications and policy strategies to address this, as well as take a clear headed look at which ground battles we really want and need to fight to protect the WH & Senate majority.
[ Parent ]
BTW FU on Chamberlain
Check you history buddy, I'm not trying to get "Peace in our Time". The war has already started, I'm saying let's not get clobbered defending every little piece of territory when the goal is to win. Remember the WH is winner take all so if makes NO DIFFERENCE if Obama gets 270 EVs or 358, NC, VA & IN are nice to brag about, but it's FL & OH that kept McCain out of the WH.
[ Parent ]
I stand by the Neville Chamberlain reference
w/r/t your political strategy.

(The "Peace in our time" statement was with the benefit of historical hindsight, irrelevant rhetoric. Your diversion with that statement is also irrelevant.)

We cede some states -- two years in advance -- and we lose other states because Rs get to expand their playing field.

[ Parent ]
What about AL, MS, AR?
Of COURSE we cede states years in advance, the question isn't even which ones, the isssue really is where do you spend those resouces to target states to get you to 270, I'm just saying that we don't need MO, NC, or even VA, but we HAVE to have Florida, Ohio & Michigan, all states I would consider in serious peril right now.
[ Parent ]
AL and MS are states are already in enemy territory
There's nothing left to cede there. (And I'm an advocate of the 50 state strategy, to take advantage of future opportunities that may arise in such states.)

But it appears that the ghost of Chamberlain strikes again w/r/t Arkansas.

It's stupid to cede AR, as Pryor and quite possibly Beebe will find a way to win re-election in '14. Hillary or a candidate with a similar working class appeal could very will win AR in '16.

Ceding other states like MO, NC, and VA as you suggest puts FL, OH, and MI in additional peril. In contrast, the effort to restore support from working class voters in MO, NC, and VA will pay dividends in OH, MI, IN, WI, PA, etc.  

[ Parent ]
Beebe is term-limited in '14
But I will not be surprised to see the Dem nominee then win easily.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Your ceding territory to the enemy before the battle begins.
Hence why the Chamberlain reference sticks. Al Gore and John Kerry and Mike Dukakis had the same strategy of ceding 25 states to the GOP see how well that worked out.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
This sort of interaction
Specifically, your abrasive style and derogatory remarks to other users has prompted me to ban your account. I don't have any patience for this kind of behavior.
[ Parent ]
It's a skosh early to throw Claire McCaskill under the bus
No one is muddling here, rather, people are acting about like you'd expect (only!) 23 months before the election, which means that they're making few decisions based on the high level of uncertainty. I disagree that we need to lock down and hope we scrap by with the bare-minimum; that at best has the possibility to sell us short if (note the if, and most people here are using if, not when) the economy improves and at worse means that were locked into a strategy that might not actually make sense when we get there. This isn't some board game with set characteristics, campaigns and electorates matter. We might find out that North Carolina looks better for us than Florida, for example, but we'd only know that if we get on the ground.

Beyond that, we're not likely to have a cashflow problem at DNC or Obama's campaign, so it's worth exploring where we can get Republicans on offense. I think it would be much more stupid, as you put it, not to push hard offensively in the Senate races in Nevada and Massachusetts, at least see what we're working with in Arizona and Texas and prepare for tea party chicanery in Maine and Indiana. If (there's that word again) things are ugly then we can always move resources, but it would be a shame if locked ourselves into a 50 seat majority if a 54 seat is possible in the environment, whatever (!!!) it may be. Part of being prepared for good and for bad outcomes is casting a wide net.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
I think you underestimate
how early the national committees begin to allocate resources, I'm not just talking about IEs in the last 3 months, I'm talking about ground staff, fundraising lists & basic infrastructure. This is not something you just throw together in the last 6 months before an election.
[ Parent ]
I don't know
that much about the mechanics of campaigning, but I can guarantee you that virtually nobody is making a firm decision on whether to cut McCaskill or anybody else loose now, when the last election was barely a month ago. It's absurd to suggest otherwise.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Cah Flow
I think you also underestimate the challenge ahead in fundraising for the national committees (most especially the DCCC). The Obama campaign is going to such a ton of oxygen out of the system and the amount of debt we racked u in saving the Senate and losing the House is mindboggling. Then looking at the shear numbers of Senate seats to defend and the limited number of targets available to counter-attack, some of our people are going to have to fend for themselves - it's basic math and to ignore the terrain we find ourselves fighting on is ludicrious.
[ Parent ]
Why group VA in with the squeakers?
IN and NC were both very close in 2008, VA pretty much mirrored the nation in percentage.  It is probably easier to expand the voter pool in VA which has only had 1 cycle of intense Presidential election voter drives than it is in FL and OH.  Some have posited that he could win with Kerry + CO + NV + VA (for some reason I think I'm missing either NM, IA or NH one of which wasn't a Kerry state but was a Gore state - but I'm not sure which) while losing OH and FL.  The last pres level poll last month in VA had him winning.

I can see the logic in mentally writing off the states that were viewed as the cherry on top in 2008 from expanding the field (IN & NC) as unlikely (but of course not to the extent of skipping out on a bare bones structure in the state that could be amped up at a positive signal), but just becuase VA isn't a traditional swing state doesn't mean that it isn't a swing state that deserves the same attention as OH and FL.

(They shouldn't take MI or WI for granted either, but if we're losing those we are very unlikely to win).

[ Parent ]
Your argument is characteristic of wingnuts
who want President Obama to fail, and are willing to do anything to America to make that happen.  
[ Parent ]
Grain of salt warranted . . .
These horse race numbers look like the Illinois gubernatorial numbers in the summer of 2010.  

And when Quinn trailed Brady by ten points ninety or so  days before the general election, everyone knew he was finished.

Oh wait . . . .  

[ Parent ]
And let's not forget...
Throughout 2009, just about any and all Republicans were beating Harry Reid in the public polls. He was supposed to lose, and by December 2009 everyone (supposedly) knew he was about to lose to Sue Lowden. I wonder how the Nevada US Senate race worked out? ...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
One problem
We only have 1 Harry Reid to go around.
[ Parent ]
But we have plenty of Teabagger candidates!


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Exactly!
And since the teabaggers want more blood in 2012, they'll still be hanging around and causing mayhem in the GOP. There's no reason not to prepare to beat them again.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Is our whole strategy
to wait for the tea party GOPers to gift rap us the '12 election? Please tell me we have a better plan that that.
[ Parent ]
What are the odds
that Reid is having or will be having lots of conversations with people like Tester, Webb, and McCaskill in the coming months? If they don't seek him out, I hope he seeks them out and tells them to buckle down right away. They might not get lucky by having opponents like Angle, but in the end, if they set up ground games like Reid and still lose, they will know that they did everything they could have done.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I think we're already...
Starting to see that happen. That's why he let Jim Manley go, so he can help the caucus. And I'm sure the folks who worked on the campaign will become very valuable assets wherever they go next.

And without a doubt, Webb, Tester, and McCaskill can learn from Planet Harry how to set up the kind of field operation, fundraising powerhouse, and media savvy that can even withstand constant Beltway "death" chatter. (Just how many times was Reid proclaimed politically "dead" in the last 2 years?)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Do you have
any more detailed accounts of what his team is doing after they won? I'd be very interested to read about this.

I have to say, I was pretty indifferent about Reid. I liked him, but never really loved him, even though I thought he was pretty unfairly maligned because Democrats never got everything they wanted. But after seeing how he performed in this past election, my affection for him has skyrocketed. His name should be a rallying call for Democrats facing tough reelections for years to come.  


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
The comparison does not work.
Bev Perdue is in a much more conservative state where there are conservative Democrats who will vote for the Republican. In PPP's last poll of IL-GOV, Brady was winning by 5 and getting 13% of the Democratic vote. Perdue is losing 25% of the Democratic vote.

Perdue is going to have a Republican legislature to contend with, so maybe she should just blame it all on them, but I'd like to see Roy Cooper primary her. She might improve a little if the economy drastically improves in two years. (which I don't think is going to happen) It's obvious she's very weak.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Ummm, Illinois can vote for R's...
After all, Mark Kirk just won!

We have nearly 2 years until 2012, so Perdue has plenty of time to fix things. And yes, she may be able to make the new legislative numbers work to her electoral advantage by running as someone who can provide a check and balance to The Legislature.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Almost two years out, I wouldn't make any assumptions


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Are you vying for Tezkillas post?
As chief pessimist? I agree that this race doesn't look good but your constant gloom and doom 23 monthes before the election is getting tiresome and annoying. Please for yourself make your commentary a little more interesting then a pessimistic broken record.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
What does Chief Pessimist pay?

[ Parent ]
I would'nt know I haven't worked to become it.
I imagine its nice a mental weight lifted though to have the same opinion constantly.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
As far as i remember
McCrory as mayor and gubernatorial candidate was a "sane conservative". Surely, much more  so then Fetzer or Foxx...
If we look back at the polls at this time in 94
it would have suggested a bloodbath for Democrats in 96.  That didn't happen.  So I'd say looking at the polls right now isn't too instructive as to what will really happen down the road.

www.trublupolitics.com
Exactly.
Things change.

In December 1994, President Clinton looked like a sure goner. Remember how that ultimately played out?

And in December 2006, everyone was expecting a Hillary Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani (with perhaps Michael Bloomberg jumping in as well!) "New York Subway Series" Presidential campaign. Remember how that ultimately played out?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I really, really hope Giuliani
ends up getting traction in the next race. Supposedly, he's seriously looking at 2012, making at least a few trips to New Hampshire. If nothing else, his pathetic campaign from last time provided some sorely needed entertainment.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Rudy? AGAIN??!!
Oh, that would be a hoot and a half! Every time he talks about "family values", all we have to do is roll the video of news coverage over his latest messy divorce. And of course, when he talks about "the sanctity of marriage", it also helps to have that footage of him in drag. ;-)

Seriously, if he runs again, it just proves he's gone totally delusional.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Rudy is done
He's a punchline now, and that punchline goes "Noun, verby & Nine-Eleven). Best knockout punch since Benson bitch slapped Dan Quayle
[ Parent ]
really?
i thought the punchline was "Florida."

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
+1
Haha great.
[ Parent ]
I don't
think that will matter at all. On the other hand, him dressing up in drag and being fondled by Donald Trump on "Saturday Night Live" is probably a step too far for a lot of people. It means nothing about his governing abilities, such as they are, but people aren't as understanding about that as I am. I'm fairly confident that if that clip comes out, all Obama has to do is seem presidential, which isn't hard, and he'll win.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
There's a stronger chance Pataki jumps in
Giuliani may well be "thinking it over," but so are two dozen other Republicans. He'll probably pass on a run officially once Romney jumps in, and send his endorsement that way. Of course, if Romney somehow opted to pass on a run, that might give Giuliani something of an opening, at least in a state like New Hampshire. Giuliani's biggest problem, besides having run a dreadful campaign in '08, is that terrorism/foreign policy just aren't atop the list of voter concerns right now. He does have economic bonafides from his NYC tenure, but Romney's much more well-known for his business experience. (Palin and Huckabee, of course, are just panderers to the religious right, and Gingrich will play the experience card 'til the cows come home.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Wither the religious right
do they fall in line behind a tea party-esque anti-spending libertarian or do they flex they muscle again to avoid being seen as having past their hayday? I honestly don't know which way they go, I bet there is a significant overlap between teaparty & religious right groups, but I think the majority of tea party independents are former Perotistas who are fiscally very conservative bordering on nihilistic libertarianism), but find the abortion/moral arguments of religious candidates so off putting they flocked to the Dem banner in '06 & '08.
[ Parent ]
Giuliani
appears to have a more massive ego than most politicians, if you can believe it, but what you say sounds plausible.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
23 monthes to go but Perdue has been in the gutter
since she barely won election. But wait another year before you declare her DOA.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
Kissel/Shuler
I understand the sentiment and agree with you 95% of the time you should wait. But like Blanche Lincoln everyone can see what's going to happen. If I'm Shuler or Kissel I'm getting polls into the field tomorrow.

A Democrat beating Perdue in the primary lets them bash her and thus separate themselves form her for voters. Shuler seems really well trained for that task.

[ Parent ]
2012 bloodbath
And I say that not based on any hypothetical polls but on reality. Why would people who showed up in 2008 thinking they were getting real change bother to show up in '12 when all they've gotten is sustained unemployment & capitulation to the right/republicans at every turn? If I were Ms Purdue and any other dem up for reelection I would start paying attention to the concerns of the average voter in my state and at least fake like i'm actually trying to fight for them.  
Obama is in Afghanistan
Thanking the troops, should be a great photo op if anyone takes a break from the tax extension negotiations to notice.
To the doom and gloom brigade...
When I was looking at this blog in early 2009, I thought people were way too optimistic about what was going to happen in 2010. It's a pretty commonly known fact that, absent extraordinary events (i.e. impeachment, 9-11), the president's party loses pretty big in midyear elections. We had people predicting the Dems were going to not only gain Senate seats, but even House seats (after all, we had left some on the table in 2008).

Now I have the opposite reaction about 2012. It is ridiculous to be pessimistic about an election two years from now. 1948, 1984, 1996 and arguably 1976 (where Ford almost won) are several examples when the president has made a comeback from where he and his party were two years before.

I admit, I'm not totally happy with Obama myself right now, but there's plenty of time to turn things around. It's fun to talk about polls right now, but they rarely mean anything this far out.  

I like this format of poll

I think can be very helpful in places like Massachusetts, Nevada, Connecticut and maybe Wisconsin for the democratic side. This can help a lot for have the best candidates in every race.
Perdue is in big trouble
Perdue hasn't been helped by the horrible economy.  Everyone is hearing the words "budget deficit" and how schools will receive less money.  The Democratic base is somewhat deflated in the Tarheel state.  However, I don't know if McCrory will actually win in a primary.  Truth be told, he's not in the same teabagging mold that many amongst his ranks would approve.  Best bet for Perdue:  let McCrory implode, pray for an uptick in the economy, and try her best to ride any coattails that Obama provides.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
Or have a little chat with Roy Cooper
Whichever is better.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Cooper = Godot
Don't wait for Cooper. We have the last 2 elections and he's passed and passed. Waiting for Cooper is comparable to waiting for Godot.
[ Parent ]
I've been told that Godot is supposed to represent God...
no wonder people want Roy Cooper to run so badly?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
NC-Gov: McCrory (R) Leads Hypothetical Primary and General | 71 comments

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