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NY-01: Bishop Says He's Re-Taken the Lead - by 15 Votes

by: DavidNYC

Fri Nov 19, 2010 at 8:41 PM EST


Hot damn, this one is tight:

At the end of Day Four of counting, Bishop took the lead from his GOP challenger, Randy Altschuler, despite what Schneider described as the Republican businessman's "aggressive ballot challenge strategy designed to suppress Bishop's momentum." Despite initially trailing by 383 votes, Bishop now has a lead of 15 votes.

Altschuler has challenged 212 more voters than Bishop. Schneider predicted many of those challenges will be dismissed, which will ultimately bolster the incumbent congressman's lead even further.

The Bishop campaign has sounded confident for a while now, and they're basically predicting victory at this point. Counting is complete everywhere except for Brookhaven, where only about one in seven precincts have have been canvassed. Brookhaven went narrowly for Obama (see p. 34), 109,665 to 98,024.
DavidNYC :: NY-01: Bishop Says He's Re-Taken the Lead - by 15 Votes
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NY-01: Bishop Says He's Re-Taken the Lead - by 15 Votes | 69 comments
Bishop
Brookhaven did narrowly go to Obama, and it was also slightly larger than the district's margin for Obama.  5.55% in Brookhaven to 3.83% for the district as a whole.

Also Bishop did win Brookhaven narrowly on election day (0.29%).  No way of knowing what districts in Brookhaven were counted, and how they compare to the districts not counted.   However, considering the ground Bishop picked up outside of Brookhaven (which was slightly worse for him on Election Day than Brookhaven) things look very good for Bishop.

Certainly close enough for a recount
Wow!  It looks like it will go down to the disputed ballots.  If Altschuler is in fact challenging more ballots, he will lose votes when those challenges are ruled on.  It probably would make sense to double check everything in a race so tight, especially since there already was one large error.

I live in Minnesota, where the Republicans are going forward with a recount when the margin is 8755 votes.  They've gone to court to get ballots thrown out (because they say the precincts didn't properly reconcile ballots with signatures and walk-in registrations) and insist on recounting every one of 2.1 million ballots.  If the margin were 875 or even three or four thousand, I would understand.  

It looks like the final House margin will be 242-193, considering that on election night that count was 239-183, the Democrats have to be happy what has happened after the clock ran out.  

Up until now, Altschuler has opposed
a full hand recount, but can't you hear a flip flop starting starting to flip already?
[ Parent ]
Does anyone know if they will be
continuing to count over the weekend?
Monday
According to 27east.com, they are taking the weekend off and the count will resume on Monday.
[ Parent ]
Thanks n/t

[ Parent ]
Closest House race I've seen in a while...
Anyone know of any recent races that were closer?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
CT-2 ended within 100 votes in 2006.
[ Parent ]
it also ended
within 30 votes in 1994. It has the distinction of being the closest race in the country in both 1994 and 2006.
[ Parent ]
Which made it all the more noteworthy
that Courtney carried the district decisively in this tough year - without even needing to break a sweat!
[ Parent ]
Says good things about Courtney
and also says how much of a fail Janet Peckinpaugh was. but hey, cool name!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Well really Courtney
is a good fit for the district and can hold it for a long time. This district has actually gotten more favorable to Republicans over the years, due to exurban growth, it being more rural, and the military influence, so that now it's the second most Republican district in the state I'd say, (though Blumenthal dominated here while only squeaking by in the 5th and 4th).

Anyway, it simply takes special circumstances for a Republican to win this district; Simmons was a special case and even he won more on the fluke of Gejdenson's mistakes in 2000, (the original Martha Coakley campaign), and he was simply a very good politician, very good at appearing moderate, much more so than he actually was. Then I also get the feeling this district really values incumbency, so there's that as well, (and Simmons first reelection campaign was in 2002, when Republicans did fairly well in New England particularly, and Courtney was kind of under-funded then, and after that in 2004 he had the positive optics of having saved the Norfolk submarine base). Though I have to say we should be thankful that Rob Simmons didn't run here this year; it would have been very competitive and very close in this environment.  

[ Parent ]
Norfolk?
Wrong state...I'm guessing you meant New London?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sorry.
Yes. It's the Groton Submarine base.  
[ Parent ]
Gejdenson
I don't remember that campaign. What did he do or say?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
He basically got caught off guard
and was criticized for moving to a posh home outside the district. He slept through the campaign and then got upset.
[ Parent ]
He basically got caught off guard
and was criticized for moving to a posh home outside the district. He slept through the campaign and then got upset.
[ Parent ]
There was a recent alaska state leg race
that was decided by 1 vote.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
We have one here in MA that is either
a one vote victory or a tie:

http://www.telegram.com/articl...

[ Parent ]
A tie would be fun to watch.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
what happens in a tie?
coinflip?  revote?  re-canvass and recount until someone wins?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
wasn't there a tied NH senate election
a while back? I thought that was decided by coinflip, or maybe there was some other such election I'm thinking of.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
They held another election
where one of the candidates ended up winning decidedly
[ Parent ]
According to the article
the legislature decides (probably by calling a special election).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
in MN we do a coin-flip

[ Parent ]
This is true
I believe the mayor of Hill City was elected via coin flip a couple years ago. I may have the town wrong, but it was one of those small towns up there. It is one of the strangest electoral phenomena I know of.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
NY
I will be so happy if Bishop pulls this off!

29/D/Male/NY-01
I hope Bishop wins :)

Now I must find something about the state senate.
[ Parent ]
Altschuler challenges the residency of Bishop's parents.
http://www.capitaltonight.com/...
Yep, I feel he's going to lose.  Rest easy, Tekzilla, your Rep. isn't going anywhere.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Talk
about desperate. All I can say is try again in 2012 Altschuler. Who knows, you might finish the job in 2012.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
If Altschuler couldnt do it in a year like 2010
Something tells me he wont either in 2012 either unless the environment is even worse for Democrats, which is pretty much impossible.  
[ Parent ]
Foley's son
Altschuler's camp has also challenged the residency of outgoing State Senator Brian Foley, who voted absentee from George Mason University in Virginia.

http://www.newsday.com/long-is...

[ Parent ]
Newsday
and their fucking paywall.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Newsday, the only large
newspaper on Long Island has also had only limited coverage, a paragraph or two, of the Bishop race for the past 2 days. The newspaper sucks.
[ Parent ]
Altschuler has also challenged
the vote of Michael Foley, the son of the district's State Senator, Brian Foley. Michael Foley is a lifelong resident of Blue Point, who is currently attending George Mason University.
[ Parent ]
Link
[ Parent ]
What a piece of scum
reminds me of Panic! At Tedisco challenging Kirsten Gillibrand's ballot.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Intrade still has Republicans as substantial favourites to pick up 65 or more seats
Free money, or is there something we're missing?
I'm going with free money.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
What's the count right now?
Also, Intrade can kiss my ass.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
It looks like it will be 63 or 64
depending on the outcome of NY-1.
[ Parent ]
Careful!
This contract specifies a starting count of 177, so if Republicans end up with 242 or more seats it will be satisfied. This looks likely.

The only hope you have to win is for the only remaining undeclared race to go for the Republicans to be TX-27. (At least based on the NY Times.)

[ Parent ]
Yeah
The worst it will be for the Republicans is 242-193.
[ Parent ]
Holy crap, that's close.
This is now looking more interesting now that Kamala Harris (D) has opened up a roughly 43,000-vote lead over Steve Cooley (R) in the California Attorney General race.

Maffei, however, doesn't seem as lucky.

Maffei
Seems like Maffei is gone...his best county has reported and with only Wayne left where Buerkle won easily...btw Maffei was also much more aggressive challenging absentee ballots especially in the GOP leaning counties...most were counted but he gave it the college try at least.
time for Matt Driscoll
to step in and sweep her out easily with Obama driving out college students in Auburn and Syracuse. He's also really popular in Onondaga in general, (more liked by the suburbanites), and unlike Maffei, has a political base in the area in his own right, (Maffei spent most of his working life in NYC and elsewhere, working for Rangel and others, before returning back to Syracuse).

It's a really terrible loss on Maffei's part. 54% in Onondaga...Cuomo, Schumer, and Gillibrand were winning it by 64%, 66%, and 62% there respectively. Really any Democrat should be able to get 56% in Onondaga county. If he'd just been able to hit that low benchmark, he'd be ahead by a few thousand votes right now. Oh well. Matt Driscoll is a better pol anyway, and should be able to do more to secure the area for Democrats.  

[ Parent ]
Auburn?
There are no college students in Auburn, haha. Plus it's not even in his district, it's in 24 (Hanna).  
[ Parent ]
Huh
I didn't know why it was so uber democratic compared to all the areas around it. And is it really in the 24th? Well I corrected that in my suggested compromise map.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, it's 24
I'm not sure that it is "uber" Democratic but definitely more so than the areas around it, usually enough to push Cayuga County as a whole a very light blue. It's definitely not due to any colleges but probably just the fact that its the only largish city in the area surrounded by rural country. It has a pretty decent Democratic tradition, with a some minority and ethnic populations, also the home of an ex state party chair I believe.  
[ Parent ]
Challenging more ballots than your opponent
a time honored tradition to drag the process out, but it only prolongs the inevitable, and makes you look foolish when in the end you lose by a lot more than everyone expects.
What "Brookhaven" Is
"Brookhaven" is a county subdivision known as a "town" in New York and New England. On Long Island, "towns" often contain dozens of incorporated communities known as "villages".  The "town" of Hempstead, in Nassau County (I think mostly in Peter King's district) has more people than Buffalo, the second largest "city" in New York.  Buffalo is the largest object in its class, though, because New York City is a special city under New York's constitution.
As a Manhattanite
I have no idea what a "special city" is. Please explain.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Maybe
It's that New York is made up of five separate counties (I think it's unique in the nation in that regard), or it's the product of the fusion of previously incorporated cities? I know Brooklyn was a city in its own right until about 100 years ago.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
The vast majority of the town of Hempstead...
is in Carolyn McCarthy's district. Peter King's district has most of Oyster Bay minus Syosset, and both of Nassau's cities, parts of Hempstead, and part of Babylon and Islip in Suffolk.

Hempstead is the fifth largest county subdivision in New York State, after four of the boroughs. Brookhaven I believe was the fifth largest, but Staten Island might have overtaken it depending on population growth since 2000. Islip and Oyster Bay I think are also both larger than Buffalo.

[ Parent ]
Staten Island, slightly more than Brookhaven
Staten Island did overtake Brookhaven.  As of the 2009 estimate Staten Island was a little over 491,700, Brookhaven was a little over 490,400.  Brookhaven's population was about 5,000 more than Staten Island in 2000 (448,000- 443,000)
[ Parent ]
What is the deal
with the ridiculously low turnout in Staten Island? A county of over 450,000 people, 70% white, mostly middle class and blue collar, and only 100,000 votes cast there in the Presidential election; less than 25% turnout. It's the lowest I've seen in a district that wasn't a border district with a huge percentage of illegal immigrants and low turnout, impoverished minority voters.  
[ Parent ]
Wha?
According to CNN, Staten Island cast about 165,000 votes in the presidential election.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sorry,
that was the gubernatorial race this year...still, 165,000 is barely 35% of it's population, which means it's running 26 points under the national average, and probably further under than that among middle class districts with its racial composition.  
[ Parent ]
The national average is
64% of a state's population? that seems way too high. That would mean something like, I dunno, 75-80% of a state's registered voters! Maybe in Minnesota or Wisconsin, but nationwide?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Please,
I don't understand why you are arguing this. Staten Island's turnout is fucking low, and I want to know why. In the congressional race this year for instance its turnout was more than 50% lower than other congressional districts like Israel or Bishop, or Hall. Or Owens.  
[ Parent ]
calm down
Its turnout is low, yes, but I think you are exaggerating a bit with the figures you provide.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Technical Question for NY People
I know there's some sort of rule about not dividing towns for legislative districts. Does that apply even for the mega-towns of Long Island? (Hempstead of course is bigger than one Senate district anyway, but I don't think that, say, Islip or Oyster Bay are.)

36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
how can it take so long
to count votes in one Congressional district? I don't understand the delays.
hasn't been all that long
The auditing of the new machines may have added some time, but in reality it isn't taking all that long.  It seems like its taking a long time compared to other districts because of the absentees and closeness of the election.  Quite simply absentees and the full ballot count for races are generally not completed (and certified) until a few weeks after Election Day.  Generally the results known on Election day or a few days after are enough to call a race even though not every vote has been counted.  

In this race, things are so tight, its unlikely the race can be called until every vote was counted, and potentially court challenges could delay things further.  

With that being said based on the results of the absentees that have been counted, the fact Bishop will likely pick up votes at a similar clip he has through the absentees (the political breakdown of what has and hasn't been counted are similar) as well as Altschuler having more challenges things look very good for Bishop.  To the point where the race can be called?  No, but he has the clear advantage.

[ Parent ]
The audit and the counting of
the absentees are going on at the same time in different parts of the same building, so I don't think the audit is adding any time to the counting of votes.
[ Parent ]
The audit and the counting of
the absentees are going on at the same time in different parts of the same building, so I don't think the audit is adding any time to the counting of votes.
[ Parent ]
When will they finish counting?
Before Thanksgiving?  What are the recount rules?

I chuckled when I read the Maffei thread which said that it is futile to fight a 500-600 vote deficit.  I live in Minnesota where the Republican is trailing by over 1000 per Congressional District and he is still proceeding with the recount.

Bishop down 10 (or 9?)
via Newsday stupid paywall...

http://www.newsday.com/long-is...

Bishop back up 16 or 17
[ Parent ]
NY-01: Bishop Says He's Re-Taken the Lead - by 15 Votes | 69 comments

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