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KY-06: Recanvass Nets Barr Just One Vote

by: James L.

Fri Nov 12, 2010 at 12:23 PM EST


Stick a fork in this one...

A recanvass of votes Friday in all 16 counties in Central Kentucky's 6th Congressional District showed Democratic U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler leading Republican Andy Barr by 648 votes.

Secretary of State Trey Grayson said the recanvass requested by Barr showed Barr picking up only one vote in Lincoln County, putting Chandler's lead at 648 votes. It was 649 before the recanvass.

The total vote count from the recanvass is Chandler with 119,812 votes and Barr with 119,164 votes.

Grayson said Barr has until the end of business Friday to ask the Franklin Circuit Court to conduct a recount of the votes. That would be at the candidate's expense, Grayson said.

Barr has a news conference scheduled for 3:30pm. I wouldn't be surprised to see him concede, but if he wants to drag this process out and spend thousands of dollars on a recount, that's his prerogative.

UPDATE: Probably sensing the uphill climb he faces, Barr has conceded the election.
James L. :: KY-06: Recanvass Nets Barr Just One Vote
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KY-06: Recanvass Nets Barr Just One Vote | 63 comments
only 647 more recanvasses to go
for victory!
Well, I'm not sure if he could pay for that many.
He could ask for a few more recanvasses, putting the margin down to 640.  Then ask for a hand recount, which might put the margin down to about 625.

At that point, ask to challenge ballots.  This might net him over a hundred votes, when he notes that extra marks or creases are personal signatures of voters.

Hmm, that leaves another 500 to go.  Now try to investigate which precincts might have had ballots handled improperly.  Were all the doors locked tight?  Were polling places open exactly on time and closed exactly on time?  Were all the i's dotted and t's crossed?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
How much money does Barr have?
And how much money does the NRCC want to spend on a recount?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
Looks like Kentucky gets their counts right the first time
I'm always impressed when a recanvass barely changes the vote count. Barr should just concede, all the votes are in and nothing's changing.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
since there's no daily digest out yet
challenge: name every city over 200,000 people that voted for john mccain. don't cheat.  go...!

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
I will give it a shot
(I am looking up a list of cities by population, but no political information: full disclosure)

Phoenix
Fort Worth
Louisville
Oklahoma City
Tucson
Virginia Beach
Colorado Springs
Tulsa
Arlington
Lexington
Corpus Cristi
Anchorage
Plano
Glendale
Chandler
Lubbock
Laredo
Baton Rouge
Gilbert
Garland
Montgomery

I don't think I missed any, although Obama may have carried a few of these. This is just my SWAG

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
alright, lemme give you the numbers for those ones
Phoenix  52% for Obama.  it's the suburbs that make Maricopa so red.
suburbs like:
Chandler-46%
Glendale-44%
Gilbert-37%

Tucson too Hispanic, 61% for Obama.  not even close, it's about as blue as California. oh yeah, plus the college.

Fort Worth  53%, it's actually a bellwether of the national vote.  again, it's the suburbs. like Garland: 47%. Arlington: 48%.  Plano: 40%.

Other Texas places:
Laredo is a fail :P on your part.  It was merely 71% Obama.  Similar to Vermont.

Lubbock, certainly: 34%.
Corpus Christi, yes: 48%

Other Southern places: Tulsa, yes, 44%.
Baton Rouge, no, 65%
Montgomery is also heavily Black.  62%.

And your other guesses.

Louisville 61%.  No.
Colorado Springs, of course, is known for being red.  43%.
Virginia Beach is debateable.  I know that it's 50%, but I don't know who won it.  I think Obama barely did.

Not Lexington.  52%.
Anchorage is 42%.

Still a lot left to guess :P Thanks for trying


18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
to be specific, 7 left


18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Lets add ...
Mesa, AZ
Scottsdale, AZ
Wichita, KS
[ Parent ]
Virginia Beach went narrowly for McCain
It was something like 1,500 votes.
[ Parent ]
oh ok
and yes, all three of those fit.  3 or 4 left, one is 50% so i'm not sure who won it

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Not sure if these cities actually have 200K, but
Boise, ID
Knoxville, TN
[ Parent ]
they both do
but both voted for obama

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Not Knoxville
Lafayette voted for McCain as well, and it's somewhere around 200k including all the suburbs, which doesn't count I suppose. Witchita as someone above noted, OKC. Really having trouble coming up with more, lol.  
[ Parent ]
okc
yes, also the biggest city that went red

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Guess
Hialeah
Bakersfield
Midland
[ Parent ]
midland
is barely at the century mark.

however: hialeah is only 35% and bakersfield ( i knew people would forget about it ) is 43%

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Very obviously, Bakersfield
Jacksonville, Florida might be one, but I'm not sure.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Probably not Jacksonville
High African-American population in Jacksonville, I think it's the suburbs that made Duval County go for McCain.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
[ Parent ]
actually
by about half a percent, jacksonville is correct.  iirc, it's a city-county type thing so the "suburban" areas count as part of the city

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Amarillo, TX
Not sure if it has 200K though.
[ Parent ]
and the only one left
was 50-50.  so who won chesapeake?  thanks for playing, guys :)

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Guesses
Irving TX?
Spokane WA?

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
both of those
went for obama. spokane by double digits, i think.  irving by about 3.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Dallas Suburbs
Plano
yes
but was already named

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Interesting exercise...
Can you list them all out in one post?
[ Parent ]
ok
anchorage
chandler
glendale
mesa
scottsdale
gilbert
bakersfield
colorado springs
jacksonville
hialeah
wichita
oklahoma city
tulsa
arlington
garland
plano
lubbock
corpus christi
chesapeake ?
virginia beach

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Thanks! n/t

[ Parent ]
Chesapeake was 50-49 for Obama n/t
n/t

29, Male, Dem, NY-20  
[ Parent ]
Huntington Beach, CA?
It's right around 200,000 and I would assume it went narrowly for McCain.

27, Dem, CA-39 (home), OR-04 (school)
[ Parent ]
good catch
i missed how populated it was.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Not quite 200,000
Obama won every OC city over 200,000 - Irvine, Anaheim, Santa Ana.

Anaheim was close, mind you. And Santa Ana doesn't have that many votes for various reasons even though its the largest city in the county.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Where can you get these stats by city?
I now want to take a look at the Orange County numbers.

27, Dem, CA-39 (home), OR-04 (school)
[ Parent ]
Go to ocvote.com
They have very detailed numbers going back to I think 2004 - down to the precinct level.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
Superb.
Chandler is a great guy and a great future statewide candidate. Governor or maybe Senate. I know someone who worked on his 03 campaign and have heard good things. If he can survive this year against a top tier candidate then he's has this seat as long as he wants it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Be careful.
The same was said of Chet Edwards and Gene Taylor.

Though I'd love to see both of them back.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Chandler's district is more Dem-friendly than Taylor's or Edwards'.
Also, the Dems hold the Gov seat and the State House.  If they play their cards right, they can  make Chandler's district more friendly for him by incorporating a chunk of southeast KY.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Not
sure how I can be careful. JK. No but I feel pretty confident about him. Barr posed a serious challenge and it was a horrible year. Neither Edwards or Taylor faced years like this until, well this year. Edwards district was much more D friendly in 94 and Taylor's was still friendly towards con dems (I guess it still is considering how close he came). I think Taylor might be able to make a comeback. Maybe. Chet's only future in politics is appointed. I could see Obama giving him something. Vet affairs. I really can't see him getting elected to his old CD, he got blown out of the water. He could try statewide but it would have to be a good year and even then it would not be likely.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Should Chet have joined the blue dogs?
I remember not seeing his name on blue dog lists.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Considering
he lost by such a large margin I seriously doubt it would have helped him much.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I don't think it would have made one bit of difference
Voters in these very, very conservative districts were not going to vote for any variety of Democrat in this election.
[ Parent ]
Heck.
He could have gone birther friendly, vote 100% R, call Obama every name in the book, say he wanted Michelle Bachman as Speaker and he probably still would have lost just because of the D by his name.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Remember when Nancy Pelosi
was floating Edwards as a possible vice presidential candidate?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Southern Dems
Much like moderate Republicans, conservative Southern Democrats are "going and they ain't comin' back" (HT--The Boss).  College campuses and high minority populations are the only places Democrats will have a chance, and it is doubtful that Blue Dogs will play any better there than mainstream Democrats.  

The source for hope for Democrats seems to be minorities and the West Coast, although they still did fairly well on the East Coast.  I can't see any Democrat carrying these states in the next ten years:  Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas (maybe Hillary, but she'll be old in 2016), West Virginia, Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, South Dakota, Alaska, Georgia, South Carolina, and Utah.  That is over a third of the states in this country.  Texas, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina and Missouri would require quite a wave as well.    

Why can't you see
Democrats carrying Georgia? Obama got 47% there despite giving up the state for most of campaign season.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Comments on states
Mississippi might be possible.  Georgia might be even more possible.  South Carolina is as possible as Mississippi.  Montana and North Dakota seem to be as possible as Georgia.  Missouri is also on the same level--because it's regarded as a swing state, it's likely to be heavily targeted, and its slightly conservative electorate will very likely turn out.

North Carolina is as possible as Missouri, but is on the way up rather than down.

West Virginia, on first glance, seems to be like Pennsylvania minus the western and eastern ends of the state.  I don't know WV well enough to say whether this is correct, but this first glance tells me that it's not the same type of state as AL, MS, or LA.

Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah are also strong R for different reasons.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
The problem is there aren't enough persuadable white voters in those states......
SC and MS have white populations that are just too conservative to vote for a Democrat for President even with the large black populations in those states.  Same goes for GA for now, but a growing nonwhite population helps us there eventually.  MT and ND, I'm skeptical long-term, I've read the argument that environmental issues are helping us there, but I don't think we can get over the hump.

I agree that WV is different from the rest of the South, it still has a strong enough union presence to keep it more competitive for us than even KY.  But ultimately it's getting away from us, and it will get only worse over time.  But then I expect WV will shrink in electoral votes over the decades.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I don't
know if I believe that all voters there are too conservative to vote for a Democrat. Of course, even if the state becomes gettable, the Democrats won't win it by 60 percent or more unless we are facing a Johnson-style landslide, but when was the last time voters in the state were actually spoken to directly? Maybe you are right that they are just too conservative, but I wouldn't assume that until we try approaching them. Maybe it's not as cheap as Idaho, but I can't imagine it's as expensive as Virginia, so perhaps there's no reason not to try.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
You have to have a candidate with natural appeal in a state for that state to be worth any effort......
All the non-traditional battlegrounds in which Obama competed were states where very early polling showed him strangely competitive.  I remember when the SUSA 50-state polls came out in early 2008, I regarded those polls as crap at the time because I didn't buy that Obama would run close in Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, and other longtime red states.  But Obama's internal polling obviously showed the same thing, but the campaign focused hard on those states early on, not just for primaries but with an eye toward November.  For whatever reason, something about Obama appealed organically to a significant share of normally-Republican white voters in those states.

Some voters are unpersuadable, and some states have enough of those voters to make an effort prohibitive without a particular candidate showing unique appeal.

Bush 2000 spent serious money in California, while Gore took the state for granted and did nothing there.  And still Gore won handily.

That's just how the map is.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
South Carolina
appears to be a lot more likely than Mississippi, unless the Democrat running for national office somehow gets less of the white vote than either Obama or Kerry. And in that case, winning South Carolina is probably the least of our concerns.

It's probably less likely than Georgia and certainly less likely than North Carolina or Virginia, but it does seem gettable, although narrowly, if only because of the significant black population there. Is it really that expensive of a state in which to advertise? Unless he's really fighting for his political life, I'd like to see Obama try to win the state.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Um, we just did win North Carolina and Missouri, and...
...that was with a liberal black guy from Chicago named "Barack Hussein Obama."

So I think it's safe to say those states are in play in 2012.

North Carolina, for its part, has a still-growing nonwhite population that will keep Dems competitive there long-term in Presidential elections.

Agree on the others, although some of them, like NC, have growing nonwhite populations that will make them winnable come the 2020s.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Plus we're not getting blown out among whites in NC like we are in SC and GA
There's a world of difference between winning 35% of whites and 25% of whites.

Thank you very much Raleigh-Durham!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
At the risk of
seeming way too pie in the sky, there's really only one place to go, and that's up.

I won't go into all of the details, but I've been imaging a situation where, for a few reasons, the Obama campaign replaces Biden with someone like Gabrielle Giffords. We're likely to see an advantage with women in 2012 unless every group is deserting Obama, but someone like Giffords could add to that advantage, especially with white women. I could see Obama campaign having her do nothing but talk about nothing but education, the environment, and veteran issues for three months. I wonder how this would play in the South, where a decent chunk of white women are married to men who are in the military. Would Giffords give Obama the sort of in with these woman so that they'd be open to hearing his message? I have to think so. This isn't the same, of course, as saying they'd all end up voting for him, but opening a dialogue is half the battle.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Nevertheless GA is winnable
because of a much larger black population than NC. All we need is an improvement with white voters.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
"All we need" is actually a VERY tall hill to climb......
Obama was at his peak in 2008, really the peak for any Democrat in the modern party, and he got a measley 23% of white votes there.

And any Democrat other than Obama needs a lot more than 23% because no other Democrat can draw 30% black vote share and get 98% of them like Obama did.  The state's black population is 30% of the total, but they almost always vote below census, sometimes way below census.  And they break our way typically more like 90-10 than 98-2.

A Democrat has to realistically pull in at least 30% of white votes to win statewide in Georgia, and that's become a tall order.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Obama
pulled out of Georgia and didn't seriously contest it again until the end. It wasn't completely his high water mark. I'm sure there are plenty of unregistered or sporadically-voting black voters who would have been in Obama's corner if he had kept a campaign there.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
That's not true. It was reported that way, but the reporting was wrong.
Obama had TV ads running continuously through the summer and fall, he never pulled out.  It's true at one point he reduced ad buys somewhat, but even on SSP when people were citing reports of an Georgia pullout, SSPers in the state commented that no, they still were seeing Obama ads continuously.  And the field program never let up there, there was no reduction in the investment in voter registration and GOTV.

Obama's 47% was actually higher than what all the polling showed him getting.  He lost the state by 5, but he seldom was that close in polling.  It was usually single-digits, but closer to 10 than 5 in most polls.

So I think 47% really was his high water mark.

Oh, and one more thing that clinches my point:  David Pluoffe actually said in early September 2008 that 47% was the campaign's goal.  They were hoping Bob Barr would pull in 5% or more, so that 47% would be enough for a plurality.  I don't know if the hope regarding Barr was just spin, but I never thought Barr could do that well even in his home state or home Congressional district since he had no money to make himself visible.  As it turned out, Barr didn't register.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Interesting
didn't hear about that. as for the polling, InsiderAdvantage (who apparently doesn't even know how to poll their own state) showed Obama +1 at one point.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Pluoffe's revelation on their goal in Georgia came in a media call......
He did these periodic media calls that produced enticing little nuggets that campaign junkies love.  That was one of them, that the goal in Georgia was 47%.

I think it's safe to say the Obama campaign did their homework and saw 47 as the ceiling, that it was too tall a hill to climb to expect anything more.

And illustrating how good they were in their own internal projections, 47 is exactly what they got.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I think I agree with DCCyclone though
The white vote in Georgia is still pretty damn inhospitable to Democrats (Obama did only as well in Georgia as Kerry did, and a different Democrat (read white) Democrat is going to have a really hard time getting black turnout as high as Obama did in 2008 even if he (or she) could improve among whites in the state.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
We didn't win Missouri
in 2008. We lost it narrowly. We should still compete in 2012, however.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I'm an idiot, I meant to say Indiana, not Missouri. Yes of course we lost Missouri! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
KY-06: Recanvass Nets Barr Just One Vote | 63 comments

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