correction on CA

Actually, the GOP picked up one state Senate seat, while the Assembly was unchanged.

Certainly, outside of California, it was a very good night for Democrats in state legislatures.  The problem in California is term limits which create a lot of open seats,
especially in the Assembly.  With the weak state of the Democratic organization here, that's a problem when an Assembly seat can cost up to $2 million.

Time for an overhaul here.

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by: mikeel @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 05:12:26 AM UTC

Thanks. (nt)

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by: James L. @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 05:22:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA Sen #34

Unfortunetly this is true. I just rechecked the numbers in this district and the results are unchanged:

Lou Correa (Dem) 46,162 49.5 % 
  Lynn Daucher (Rep) 46,926 50.5 %

This Gop leaning District in Orange County was held by Joe Dunn-D, who unsuccessfully ran for Controller in the Primary.
The Daucher lead has held consistently over the past week.

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

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by: Predictor @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 17:09:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA, WI, MN and NH

The table is correct for CA Senate (24D-15R) because one seat is still undecided.  So, it should be N/C until this race is decided.

In the text above the table, it should read that the Dems took over the Wisconsin Senate, not the Wisconsin House.

The Minnesota and New Hampshire gains were amazing.  This is the first time Democrats have controlled the New Hampshire House since 1922.

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by: DCal @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 05:55:13 AM UTC

MN House

The turnaround since pre-2004 in the Minnesota House of Reps has been amazing.  The DFL coordinated campaign did a bangup job taking great candidates and pushing them to get into the community, knock on doors, and connect with the electorate in 2004 - now that the 50-state strategy emphasized challenging Republican incumbents in every district at all levels, the emphasis on building a strong, deep, broad bench of candidates at the legislative level is even stronger. 

It's important to note that the DFL now has approximately 65% majorities in each house of the legislature - in Minnesota, several important bills require a 60% majority to pass over a gubernatorial veto.  Tim Pawlenty, regardless of his "rising stock" with the national Republican punditry, has just been de-fanged.  Either he REALLY works with the DFL, or he quickly becomes irrelevant.

MN Campaign Report: DFL and MNGOP campaign information, political analysis, and a healthy dose of snarky wonkishness.

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by: MNCampaignReport @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 05:59:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks!

I'll get this figured out eventually.  Even the DLCC isn't 100% certain about the tally!

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by: James L. @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 06:04:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NH senate?

On wednesday the Concord Monitor was reporting the NH senate was going to be 14D-10R.  And looks like that's what the Union Leader has as well.

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by: MissLaura @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 07:33:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks!

As Bush would say, tracking 7500+ state legislative seats is "hard work"! :)

I'll fix the tally again.

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by: James L. @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 07:35:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

True CA SS#34

is not called yet, however there has been slight movement to Daucher-R, none to Correa-D unfortunetly.

(-8.50/-7.44) "Real Democrats don't make promises they can't keep." Dr. Howard Dean

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by: Predictor @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 17:35:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TX House is off

It is +5 for the Texas House. It's +6 if you include the open seat we picked up in a special election back in February. The new House is 81-69.

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by: KTinTX @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 12:56:01 PM UTC

Marriage Amendment impact on the 2008 Wisconsin election

Read a very interesting take on the Wisconsin turnout and the impact of the Same Sex/Civil Union marriage Amendment on the 2008 elections from Rep. James Sensenbrenner R-WI of all people. 

Sensenbrenner noted the GOP legislative majority purposely  slowed down passage of the Gay Marriage Amendment to align it with the Nov 2008 Governor election.  The GOP also added a zany non-binding death penalty referenda with language specificly mentioning DNA evidence to attract the CSI vote I guess, it passed by a 56%-44% margin.  The Amendment + the referendum were to generate a tidal wave of social conservatives voting Yes-Yes-GREEN.  Sensenbrenner next noted the Marriage Amendment outpolled Green by about 275,000 votes statewde ((it passed statewide by exactly 399,000 votes, Dane County (Madison) voted over 2-1 against the Amendment but it passed in every other county winning statewide 59-41%)).  Meanwhile Jim DOYLE was easily re-elected 53%-45% which by recent Wisconsin standards is a landslide.

Sensenbrenner noted the Amendment hurt the Republicans badly. It energized the state college campuses who tidal waved, voting mostly No-No-Doyle, and it energized the blue collar union vote who did come out and vote in larger numbers.  They voted Yes-Yes-Doyle and many voted straight party ballots for the Democrats.  The harmless GOP State Treasurer Jack Voight was also ousted this election so the Dem tide was deep by recent Wisconsin standards.

The AG race however shows what the Club of Growth did nationally, the Dems can do as well.  The incumbent AG was Peg Lautenschlager, who is perhaps the most progressive AG in America at the moment. (Kathleen Falk is another fine progressive. Falk wanted to succeed Doyle in 2012 and felt she needed to win a statewide office to create credibility outside of Dane County) Peg proceeded to get a DWI about a year into her term.  Several Dem state legislators then prodded Dane Co. Executive Falk into a primary challenge of Peg due to the DWI.  Falk out spent Peg and won by an anemic margin in a bitter race.  Falk lost her home county to Peg, progressive stronghold Dane Co., 60%-40%. In the Eau Claire vicinity however Falk steam rolled Peg about 70%-30%.  Kathleen Falk was subsequently defeated by GOP nominee J. B. Van Hollen who at one point claimed there were terrorist training camps operating in Wisconsin (he is a Federal US Attorney).  Van Hollen won statewide by about 9,000 votes, but Jim Doyle received 11,000 more votes than Kathleen Falk did in Dane County.  In otherwords, Kathleen lost because 11,000 Dane County progressives could not forgive her nasty primary challenge of progressive icon Peg Lautenschlager and bypassed voting at all in the Attorney General race if they couldn't stomach Van Hollen. 

Three of the four Senate pick ups were achieved by defeating incumbent Republicans. Ron Brown was a quiet conservative back bencher. David Zein was the point man for the NRA in the Capitol and an extremely combative conservative. Tom Reynolds is a wingnut obsessed with attending conferences that explored such crucial voter topics as the "homosexual agenda".  Think Marilyn Musgrave with a darker mustache and soul.

The Assembly races were more affected by corruption issues.  Scott Jensen, the former GOP Senate leader, is currently doing jail time for felony influence peddling.  Many of the GOP Assembly members who were upset this week were linked to Scott Jensen by their opponents. Just like the GOP in the US Congress, the GOP here in Wisconsin killed election reforms after a significant legislative scandal because they felt it would not be a voting issue by 2008. They were wrong.

 

"My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." -- Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

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by: walja @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 13:33:48 PM UTC

additional comment on Legislative races - Eau Clarie

Failed to mention why Eau Claie vicinity was one of the areas in Wisconsin where the GOP fared poorly.  It was the role of the Marriage Amendment in mobilizing the 18-24 electorate, especially on the UW system campuses, to vote against the Amendment.  The voting turnout surged heavily among 18-24 year voters as there was an hour long line to register to vote in student wards in Eau Claire.  The 18-24 year old surge in turnout is what washed away two of the three GOP Senate incumbents who lost, and also accounted for the surprising upset defeat of GOP Rep. Robin Kreibisch in his Assembly race. It is nice to know that the GOP paid a price for passing the discriminatory marriage amendment.

"My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." -- Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

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by: walja @ Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 23:12:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nebraska's "Nonpartisan" Legislature

Republicans have a huge majority in the legislature, 34-13-2 before the election. With that majority, they control committees. Now, without an official partisan nature to the legislature, members are free to form coalitions and trade votes, resulting in strange variance in laws. For example, the unicameral passed a law giving in-state tuition to immigrants who graduated from a Nebraska high school, over the governor's veto. They passed a law giving ex-felons the right to vote 2 years after completing their obligation. They passed a conceal & carry law, and a law segregating Omaha's schools.

A Democratic majority isn't essential in this legislature. But with term limits eliminating half the body this year, it was important to elect new Democrats to the legislature to replace the veteran Democrats who were forced out. Six Democrats retired from the legislature this year, and in those open seats, four Democrats won. Democrats won in four open seats held by Republicans, and may pick up another if a recount goes their way. But assuming the result of that race favors the Republican, the current status of the legislature is 32 Republicans, 15 Democrats, and 2 Independents.

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by: DaveSund @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 16:20:58 PM UTC

Another reason this is important

Under federalism, particularly the post-Reagan version in which much power has devolved to the states, the states make a lot of important domestic policy. This is particularly true in times of do-nothing Congresses, as we have now; look at minimum wage laws, health coverage, and environmental policy, just to name three areas that many states have forged ahead of the national government.

Wingers know this well, and they put a lot of resources into managing policy at the state level through the American Legislative Exchange Council (www.alec.org). On our side, the electoral gains have been great, but our policy networking is still far behind. The Progressive States Network (www.progressivestates.org) is trying to fill the gap, but its resources are a small fraction of the right's.

In order to capitalize on the electoral successes, we need to build this infrastructure -- at the state as well as the national government. And, no disrespect to James intended -- we need to look at statehouses not as the farm team, but the major-league team on important policy issues at the state level.

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by: ATL Dem @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 17:35:52 PM UTC

2007

is the year for election to the Virginia legislature.  The Republicans are seriously divided between the no-tax-ever crowd and the relative moderates (about 20, who Warner brought along in support of his biennial budget).  There could be a number of pickups in twelve months....

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by: science @ Sun Nov 12, 2006 at 23:52:35 PM UTC