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Redistricting Roundup: 11/10

by: DavidNYC

Wed Nov 10, 2010 at 8:19 AM EST


Redistricting will undoubtedly be a top - if not the top - topic around here over the next year or so. To get your engines started, here are a few early items from around the nation:

  • Indiana: Gov. Mitch Daniels released his list of legislative priorities for 2011, and it looks like he's trying to burnish his bi-(or non-)partisan cred with this plank:

    • "Indiana must have a fair redistricting based on geographic and community of interest lines - not politics. And I'll only sign one that meets that test."

    Daniels' commitment will be seriously tested on this part of his platform, seeing as the GOP now controls both houses of the state lege (in addition to the governor's mansion, of course). Incoming House speaker Brian Bosma also claims he's a supporter of such reforms. We shall see.

  • Alabama: Meanwhile, down in Alabama, Republicans also control the trifecta - and seeing as it's their first time, they're licking their chops. As the Birmingham News puts it:

    • The likely result is a new congressional map that protects all six Republican congressmen and keeps intact the majority black district home to the only Democrat, according to U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Saks.

    Here's one stab at such a map. Can you do better?

  • Illinois: The upper hand is on the other foot in Illinois, one of the few redistricting bright spots for Dems. With Team Blue in charge of the trifecta here - and the Prairie State on track to lose a seat in reapportionment - the only question is which Republican freshman will get tossed in the woodchipper. Sadly, we have quite a few to pick from: Randy Hultgren, Adam Kinzinger, Bobby Schilling, Jim Walsh, and Bob Dold! But it'll still be satisfying to see one of these guys get axed. (And if we're really lucky, two of `em will get tossed into a single district together.)

  • New Jersey: For whatever reason, New Jersey chooses to be a freak state, holding its state-level elections in odd-numbered years. This is good news for horserace bloggers, but probably a pain in the ass for the folks in charge of drawing state lege district lines. They have to produce a map by Feb. 1 - which is barely a month after the Census Bureau will releases its state-level population data, and a month or so before they release redistricting-level data. In any event, I suggest you read the linked story, which details how Dems succeeded in getting a very favorable map ten years ago - circumstances which are unlikely to obtain this time around.

  • Dave's Redistricting App: I realize there are quite a few new SSP members these days, so it's possible not everyone is familiar with the awesome (and free!) Dave's Redistricting App. It does exactly what it sounds like it ought to do - you can draw and re-draw maps to your heart's content. The eponymous Dave often stops by in comments and with diaries of his own, in case you ever have questions. He's also always looking for assistance in compiling partisan data for the app, so if you want to help improve the program, please click the link to find out how!
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    DavidNYC :: Redistricting Roundup: 11/10
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    Redistricting Roundup: 11/10 | 34 comments
    Virginia
    The Virginia Public Access Project has launched a redistricting portal, which currently contains a few interesting things like a map of Congressional/legislative districts showing their population gain/loss. There's also a link to a newsletter from the Department of Legislative Services about redistricting. It's an interesting read.
    NJ
    I think the right-wing Examiner article is offbase in saying that the CJ will be looking over his shoulder in his appointment of the independent member of the commission.  If anything, Christie's denial of tenure to Wallace will make Rabner more willing to go against Christie's interests.  But, as has been the case before, I think the CJ will play it down the middle and appoint a neutral as possible independent member.  

    Odds are that Republicans will get a legislative map more to their liking.  But whether it will turn over both houses of the Legislature is an open questions.  My guess will be that the Democrats will have a better chance of holding the senate than the assembly.

    The assembly districts are the Senate districts, they just elect two no?
    If the Dems can hold the Senate, they should hold the House too barring massive ticket splitting.

    21,Democrat, NY-02, male
    [ Parent ]
    Yes and no
    As we saw in the midterms, senators, because of their higher name recognition, have a better chance of holding on than house or assembly members.  Most district in NJ follow the one-party pattern.  But a number split.  And even split between the two assembly members.  One district currently has a Dem Senator and two Rep assembly members.  Another has a Dem Senator and a split between the assembly members.  While a third has a Rep senator and two Democratic assembly members.
    [ Parent ]
    NJ
    The split districts are sometimes caused by the fact that the Senate is up in years that end in 1,3, and 7, and in 5 and 9 the Assembly runs without the top of the ticket.  This caused LD-12 to flip from all R to all D in 2003 (due to a scandalous State Senator whose reverse coattails killed the Assemblypersons), but then it reverted to R (Assembly only) in 2005.  This gave one of those winners, Jen Beck, the ability to build some service time and knock off the Senator and make it back to all R in 2007.  Usually the split tickets are caused by either this, or the fact that all four Assembly candidates are very close votewise and it just breaks both ways.  Rarely is it because of a SIGNIFICANT amount of ticket splitting that causes one Republican and one Democrat in the Assembly to each win convincingly.

    Monmouth and Ocean have become the places where the Republicans can churn the most raw vote, and they've also been growing with retirees, so I'd expect to see bigger districts in the urban core and smaller new districts at the Shore.  I don't think anyone could disagree that the Democrats are at a high water mark with their current lines.  

    [ Parent ]
    Minnesota does this as well
    And the DFL held the state senate from 1971-2010 while the house has been all over the place.  I don't know if NJ divides each senate district into halves or if it's elect two from this one district, but it seems from the MN map that we tend to try to pair a 55-45 DFL house seat and a 48-50 GOP seat to make the overall state senate district just Dem enough to consistently win.  Well, until you get a year like 2010.
    [ Parent ]
    Alabama
    Is there a possibility a second VRA district would be required?  

    21,Democrat, NY-02, male
    Unlikely, especially because
    the typical standard, "retrogression," would only require one.

    [ Parent ]
    What about SC?


    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    The same rationale applies
    However, the Republicans might find it in their interest to draw another one in order to protect their members.  
    [ Parent ]
    South Carolina
    Someone here drew a SC map where they tossed the states entire AA population into Clyburn's district.
    [ Parent ]
    Oh God!
      Is that how New Jersey redistricts?! The "independent" panel invariably deadlocks and then a random political science professor is appointed to break the tie?! That's even worse than leaving it up to a partisan state legislature. Democracy fail.

     Ugh, I hope California does not end up with an "independent redistricting committee" like New Jersey's.

    24, Male, GA-05

    Not always
    Last time the parties agreed on the congressional redistricting.  This time it's unlikely because NJ is losing a seat.  

    I'd rather have an independent professional than some Republican cast the deciding vote.

    [ Parent ]
    They should just combine one D and one R
    Looking at the map, Lance and Holt make sense. Maybe Lance would run for Senate against Menendez is he's faced with such a map.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Looks like it will
    The panel's composition is 5D-5R-4I; three of each are required to approve a map.  If they deadlock, or if the map is defeated in a referendum (interestingly, petition signatures can force a vote on it, just like ordinary legislation) the Supreme Court is directed to appoint special masters.
    [ Parent ]
    How big is the "Republican advantage"
    They are crowing about controlling so many state legislatures, but aren't those most in states the gerrymandered the last time (PA, OH, etc).  In other words, can the Republicans really gerrymander more seats this time or did the Democrats merely lose the opportunity to undo what the Repubs did last time?
    The
    best they could do is lock in their gains so it would make it hard for Dems in a neutral year to pick up those seats. But both parties took blows when redistricting in CA and FL were transferred to independent non partisan committees.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    As far as I remember
    Florida is not going to an independent committee, merely that it will require districts to be more compact and not gerrymandered ridiculously. The state leg (GOP dominated) will still draw the lines. It is also being challenged in court and may not hold up.  
    [ Parent ]
    That's the key.
    The FL prop just set standards for drawing districts. It will be up the the GOP dominated state leg to draw the lines. So they still have the ability to draw compact, continious GOP favored districts.


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    [ Parent ]
    they could do that
    But sometimes GOP dominance comes from oddly shaped districts. If they were able to create simple GOP districts, they probably would have done so without this rule.
    [ Parent ]
    Mostly the latter
    I believe its pretty much North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Indiana vs Illinois. Most of the other R states like New Hampshire probably don't matter much.
    [ Parent ]
    North
    Carolina's going to be a bloodbath for Dems, on the other hand Illinois is going to be a bloodbath for the GOP. How will LePage and the GOP state house and senate play around though? They not only have the opportunity to throw out one Dem congressman, but put one of Maine's electoral votes into play for the GOP.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    I took a look at Maine
    There's only 2 congressional districts there. Even if you went down to the precinct level, literally, I don't think there's enough GOP strength in the state to knock off an incumbent.  
    [ Parent ]
    Both
    In some states like OH, PA they have a chance to make their gerrymanders work better than last time by  not overreaching, which would create more safe seats.

    In NC they have a chance to undo one of the best Dem gerrymanders in the nation. Also, we lost our chance at gerrymandering California because of a ballot initiative, oh and they won Indiana as well.

    It's a big advantage for them any way you look at it.  

    [ Parent ]
    Indiana redistricting
    I suppose that's an indication that Daniels won't do the north-south gerrymander against Donnelly, where the northern, heavily Democratic parts of IN-1 and IN-2 will be drawn together, creating a new rural district that is certain to be won by a Republican.

    But even still, the Indiana House map has to be redrawn to be more favorable to Republicans. It's ridiculously gerrymandered for the Democrats at this point.

    Only Carson is safe because of Daniels' pledge
    It might have been too risky to crack his district anyway, but now we know Indianapolis won't be cut into four pieces.  Combining the blue areas of the first and second district would be perfectly consistent with creating compact community of interest based districts, though favorable to the GOP.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    IN State House is absurdly drawn
    So many IN State House are so gerrymandered as to be comical, as there was no attempt at maintaining county integrity in the districts.Douglas Gutwein's (R- Jasper Co) District is a great example, as he has parts of Jasper, Pulaski, Cass, Fulton, and White counties, but not the entirety of any of them!!!!  

    Democrat: TN-8
    [ Parent ]
    Re NJ having to redistrict quickly
    Well, that's what Dave's Redistricting App and crowdsourcing to people like us SSPers is for.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    That would be nice
    if they agreed to just outsources it to a popular vote on this website.

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
    [ Parent ]
    Daves Redistricting
    Hi everyone,

    Dave here. Just a heads up that I am very very close to releasing 2.0. It's done and I've just been doing dome debugging and tightening it up. I think you are going to like it very much. I will post a diary announcing it by this Friday night.

    And, I haven't received any new partisan data for a while. I would certainly like to add more if any of you have something.

    (David -- it will be a different aspx page, because I'll leave the older one there for a while, so you'll need to update your link.)

    Thanks!

    Hi Dave
    Thanks so much for giving us the app and all the work you've done on it. Just wondering--will maps that we've saved on the DRA 1.0 still be accessible once 2.0 debuts? Obviously no big deal if they're not, I'll just take screenshots of my saved maps between now and Friday/

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    You'll be able to load 1.0 files (drf.xml). Also, the old app will still be accessible.

    Thanks.

    [ Parent ]
    Okay! Fine! I give in!
    I'll download the app and play with it!

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    Oh...
    ...I see.  It's not something you download.  Wow, idiocy on my part.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    [ Parent ]
    Redistricting Roundup: 11/10 | 34 comments

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