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SSP Daily Digest: 11/9

by: Crisitunity

Tue Nov 09, 2010 at 4:59 PM EST


• FL-Sen: It seems like the "permanent campaign" is pretty much the new normal these days, as everybody's already talking about who's gonna run in 2012. In Florida, the list of potential GOP challengers to Bill Nelson is deep even if Jeb Bush doesn't follow through on an unlikely bid. Appointed (and soon to be ex-)Sen. George LeMieux seems to be ramping up for a bid, although he might suffer for his Charlie Crist ties. Other GOPers mentioned include Rep. Connie Mack IV, state House majority leader Adam Hasner, state Senate president Mike Haridopolos, and newly-elected Rep. Daniel Webster.

• MA-Sen: As for the Dem field in Massachusetts, one prominent potential candidate is staying mum for now. Boston mayor Tom Menino welcomes the attention but is "focused on being mayor."

• MT-Sen: And then there's Montana, where freshman Jon Tester is probably one of the most vulnerable Senate Dems. At-large GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg is usually the first name you hear mentioned in that context, but he seems to be in no hurry to decide. Two other GOPers are making moves, though: businessman and losing 2008 Lt. Gov. nominee Steve Daines, and Neil Livingstone, CEO of a "crisis management firm" and frequent anti-terrorism talking head, are both actively looking at the race.

• WV-Sen, NE-Sen: It looks like Joe Manchin's spokesperson's denial yesterday of any interest in switching parties wasn't vehement enough, because Manchin had to reiterate that, no, he isn't considering it; in addition, Senate GOP spokespersons said those conversations alleged by Fox News apparently never even took place. The same situation applies in Nebraska, where Ben Nelson says that not only is he not interested in switching but that no one has reached out to him to do so. Encouragingly, at least from a rhetorical standpoint, Nelson also says "the party hasn't left me."

• MS-Gov: With two well-liked former Reps. idling around wondering what to do next year (Gene Taylor and Travis Childers), you'd think the Dems might actually be able to field a competitive candidate for Mississippi next year. According to at least one local pundit, a Childers comeback doesn't seem likely (more interested in state party chair), while Taylor seems to have running for something in mind but potentially just his old seat again in '12.

• OH-Gov: Here's a good post-mortem on Ted Strickland from Jonathan Chait, which suggests that Strickland managed to keep things close (despite the rest of the wipeout in Ohio) because a solid campaign that focused on just the right amount of populism. He ran well ahead of national Dems on average among groups like seniors and persons with high school educations.

• FL-22: Is Allen West the Bizarro World version of Alan Grayson? He's an ideological mismatch with his Florida district that leans the wrong way away from his party let alone his own amped-up version of its message, he has no built-in self-censor like most politicians, and he was elected more so by nationwide online supporters than the locals. And now he's hiring from his own echo chamber, turning for his Chief of Staff not a Capitol Hill pro but the conservative talk show host who helped bolster his campaign. Joyce Kaufman is the one who said on her show this summer that "if ballots don't work, bullets will."

• NY-23: Doug Hoffman is truly the gift that keeps on giving. The election's over, and he's still giving. He now says he didn't mean to send out a statement that he put out last week post-election, calling local Republican bosses the real "spoilers in this race." (Hoffman, of course, pulled in 6% of the vote last week, saving Bill Owens yet again.)

• NY-25: Trailing slightly with the absentee-counting process looming, Dan Maffei (like Tim Bishop in NY-01) is requesting a hand count of ballots (the electronic voting machines generate a paper trail). A judge also ruled that both camps may inspect the list of 11,000 absentee ballot requests, a prelim to each camp developing the list of which ballots they want to challenge.

• DCCC: It's sounding more and more like Rep. Steve Israel will be on tap to head the DCCC for the 2012 cycle. He was one of the three key deputies at the DCCC last year (along with Joe Crowley, who seems to be edging away from the job, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who seems interested too but not in as strong a position with the Pelosi-led core of leadership).

• House: Here's an interesting piece of trivia: only eight (8) House Dems did better, percentage-wise in 2010 than they did in 2008. Most are from safe urban districts (most notably Nancy Pelosi herself, despite the seven figures the right-roots raised for her opponent), although Jim Himes and Chellie Pingree were in competitive races and managed to gain ground.

• Polltopia: PPP puts together a helpful table of approval ratings on the various Senators up for re-election in 2012. It corresponds pretty closely with the general conventional wisdom about who's vulnerable: Joe Lieberman is in worst shape at 33/54, followed by Claire McCaskill and Debbie Stabenow (who actually are in slightly worse condition than John Ensign, though his problems go well beyond his approvals). Interestingly, the best-liked Senator statewide (Olympia Snowe at 56/34) may also be one of the most vulnerable, not in a general but to a teabagging in the GOP primary.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 11/9
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SSP Daily Digest: 11/9 | 165 comments
MS-Gov
I thought Mike Moore would be on tap for the Dem nomination. Travis Childers is young enough that he can probably hang around until Thad Cochran retires, and I hope he takes the plunge. He'd be a spectacular senator for Mississippi.

And if Denny Rehberg doesn't jump into MT-Sen (or even if he does) any chance that Marc Raciot would make a bid? I think Tester would be in fine shape if both of them took a pass, but otherwise, he's got a tough battle ahead it seems.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

Racicot is a happy DC lobbyist these days.
He's done with politics. That's the word in MT political circles.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Is he?
He left (voluntarily?) as CEO of the American Insurance Association in 2009. It doesn't appear that he's doing much now other than serving on a few corporate boards.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, he retired from that.
Now he's busy getting paid for doing nothing and enjoying his life as a rich retiree. No one thinks that he's interested in having to do a day job again.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
He's only 62.
I'd imagine that he's still interested in making a few bucks.
[ Parent ]
Mike Moore is a tease, or maybe just his fans are the teases, but either way...
...it's way past the time to hold out hope for Moore running.  He always passes on everything.

Maybe I'm wrong and this time he'll pull the trigger, like Richard Blumenthal finally did.

But I wouldn't count on it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
He
reminds me of the AG in NC. Always mentioned and recruited but never wants an upgrade.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Is there a legitimate
chance of Democrats taking that seat? I'm a big advocate of expanding the playing field. We'll surely try to be competitive in Nevada, Massachusetts, and Maine, although the last one is iffy because it's not clear what will happen with Snowe. I'd like the Democrats to make a serious play for the seats in Texas, Indiana, and Tennessee as well. I don't know who could be a tough candidate in Wyoming, but if we can find one, let's try there, too. I didn't think Mississippi could be competitive, but it makes more sense than focusing on Wyoming.

I'm going to engage in a little bit of speculation here. In 2008, Wicker beat Musgrove by 10 points and Cochran beat Fleming by 22 points. But Musgrove got 18 percent of the white vote while Fleming only got eight. As for the black vote, Fleming got 94 percent, and Musgrove got 92 percent. The black vote made up 33 in Musgrove's race and 32 percent in Fleming's race. The total vote in the senate races was about 1.28 million.

Now, let's play with the numbers. Imagine if turnout increased 10 percent so that there were about 1.408 million voters. Let's say, for some reason, black turnout increased and they composed 40 percent of the electorate, with whites composing 56 percent (down from 62 percent) and Hispanics composed three percent (down from four percent) and others still composed one percent. If this Democratic candidate got 15 percent of the white vote (118,272), 90 percent of the black vote (506,880), and split the other vote fifty-fifty (20,960), he'd have 646,112 votes, or 45.89 percent of the vote.

But let's say he got 18 percent of the white vote (141,926), 95 percent of the black vote (535,040), and the same part of the other vote, this candidate would have 697,926 votes, or 49.56 percent. Now we are getting close.

Let's say that this candidate somehow managed to increase his percentage of the white vote just one more percentage point to 19 percent, he'd get 149,811 white votes. If he still got 95 percent of the black vote, he'd get 705,811 votes, or 50.13. The Democrat then wins, although just barely.

Can this happen? I don't know. I know nothing about politics in Mississippi, so I don't know if there's a Democratic candidate who is even remotely capable of getting close to 20 percent of the white vote. And for something like that to happen with black voters, there would have to be even higher turnout and probably more black voters registered. But still, it makes for some interesting food for thought, even if my suggestions are, as some have suggested, completely pie in the sky.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Dave Freudenthal is the current Gov of Wyoming
And a Democrat. He'd likely be the Dems only shot at taking the Senate seat

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
That's what I hear.
It makes sense, seeing as how he was already elected statewide.

But are there any mayors that might want to take a shot if Freudenthal can't be convinced? I know nothing about Wyoming politics. (In fact, I think of them so little I was searching for cities that were in Montana to come up with a name. Then I realized what I was doing.)

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
gillibrand's only at 42%?
you'd think directly after an election there would be A more voters familiar with her and B people who voted for her and are holding firm in their support for her (until the new term begins at least).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
"directly after an election" NOT
Those numbers are PPP's various final pre-election polls. In NY's case, that was Oct 3rd (per the listing on pollster.com).

Kirsten would've been in the middle of getting hammered by her opponent's negative advertising at that time.

[ Parent ]
As I've said before, I regard PPP's favorability and job approval numbers very unreliable......
PPP's favorables/job approvals for almost everyone are almost always worse than all other polling.

It's a very consistent trend in their polling.

So for my part, I will not given much consideration to PPP on those data points.  I'll want to see other pollsters' favorables and job approvals for various incumbents.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Klobuchar
She might break the streak, and be the first senator to be reelected since 1996 in Minnesota. (A total of 7 people have served as senators from Minnesota in those 14 years)

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

Damn, that's a great fact to know

[ Parent ]
oh, and you didnt mention
she is second after Snowe in approvals.  With Sink out of the picture I'd place my bet on her being the VP pick if it's a man Presidential nominee and hopefully she'll just run herself.  She's no fool and she's gotta see the path neatly laid in front of her.
[ Parent ]
Meh, maybe.
I would prefer to see her on the Supreme Court, to be honest.

Plus, despite Republican gibberish to the contrary, Minnesota isn't a swing state. It never voted for Reagan, in fact, my mother was in preschool the last time Minnesota voted for a Republican president. So on the surface, Klobuchar doesn't "add" anything in terms of electoral votes from a state. I want to see Brian Schweitzer as Obama's VP nominee in 2012, and run for President in 2016.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
I Feel Like That's Overstated, Though...
It doesn't seem like nominees for either slot are often chosen to pick up certain states, or that they're often very successful at it. I guess Clinton/Gore pulled it off, but they had a three-way split and then incumbency on their side. But Obama/Biden, Bush/Cheney, Bush/Quayle and Reagan/Bush didn't really do it (though I guess you could argue if TX was a swing state in 1980).

It's more important to just have a good organization in the important states and a strong message that both nominees can carry.

[ Parent ]
Not always a rule
Cheney, as you mentioned, was from Wyoming, despite living in Texas for years, he had to change his residency back to Wyoming for constitutional reasons. Certainly Cheney was not someone designed to pick up Wyoming's 3 votes.

That being said, I would argue that there have been other examples where geographic consideration was a huge factor.

Reagan/Bush 1980 - Texas was a huge electoral prize for Republicans. Texas was won by Democrats in 2 of the previous 3 presidential elections. Not only that, but having a southern Republican on the ticket was a huge draw to wrest the Solid South away from Democratic dominance.

Clinton/Gore 1992 - The last hurrah of the Southern Democrat was this ticket. The South was bleeding Democratic support rapidly, but having two young Southern Democrats gave them the South, and the election.

Dole/Kemp 1996 - If you think that the Midwestern Dole selecting a New York Republican was an accident, and not an attempt to get the state's electoral votes, you are in denial

Kerry/Edwards 2004 - Having a young energetic senator from North Carolina in the VP slot was an attempt to rebuild the Clinton/Gore coalition. It failed miserably, but that was the intent.

Anyways, there are a lot of candidates that are selected to be VP for their ability to draw in their home state. It isn't always the case, but it certainly is not a rarity.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Well...
...I mentioned most of those. But my point isn't that campagins don't try it- it's that it rarely works, unless we think of it as appealing to an entire region, not just one state (And if we're thinking about that, then Klobuchar has a lot more value, in that she helps lock up the upper midwest, which was a bloodbath for Dems this year).

I mean, I guess I'll credit Reagan/Bush, but even by 1984, Texas was leaning far away from the Democrats. Still, in terms of regional appeal, that might've meant something, as Klobuchar could.

Clinton/Gore, as I said, works, but they DID have a three-way race and then the powers of incumbency. I wouldn't want to draw too many conclusions from their races.

I'm actually not sure if I believe that Dole really expected to make a play for New York. I mean, expecting a former Congressman to flip the state seems like quite a bit to ask. Regardless, it was unsuccessful.

As was Kerry/Edwards, though when Edwards was chosen, the campaign was pretty explicit that he wasn't expected to carry NC, but rather help in the midwest. Either way, it didn't help.

So really, just one example of it working (Reagan/Bush, 1980). And even in that one, it wasn't a tipping point...

[ Parent ]
I'd go further
If Dole expected Kemp to draw New York's electoral votes, he was delusional. There was no chance. Plus, people outside of the Albany area generally had no idea who Kemp was.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Kemp was from Buffalo
and a former Bill great, I may add
[ Parent ]
Mistyping by me
I meant to type Buffalo and somehow typed Albany.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
To anyone who saw my maximizing rural dem diary
yes, that was supposed to be a draft.  I havent even gotten to the hard part and scrounged up all the presidential numbers!
They were still some creative, pretty maps!!

[ Parent ]
they'll be back ;)

[ Parent ]
Jim McGovern (MA-03) treated for thyroid cancer
Looks to be very minor; his statement says he's fine and will be back to work in a week or so. Best wishes to the Congressman.

Link: http://www.rollcall.com/news/-...

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

a surgeon once told me
If you ever get a chance to choose what kind of cancer to get, pick thyroid cancer--has one of the best survival rates.
[ Parent ]
Isn't that what killed Rehnquist?


19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
[ Parent ]
All cancer is much more deadly when you're 80 years old.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
GOP Prez
Question, are we allowed to talk or speculate about who might run for the GOP nomination for Prez?  I understand that SSP stayed out of the primary battle in 2008 because it's a Dem blog and didn't want fights between supporters, but that might not be an issue on the GOP side.  Anyway, I wanted to ask management for a ruling before posting anything on that race.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
Oh, you bet I'll be doing commentary on that
If I'm banned for all eternity, so be it.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
SSP
SSP doesn't throw out the ban flag at the drop of a hat. Places like RedState are known to do for any reason at all (most notably, having anything but a 100% conservative orthodoxy).

As far as the merits and site rules about the GOP Presidential primary, I don't know how the moderators will view that. But if one of them doesn't like the nature of the topic, they will just tell you to zip it and change the subject. I have been told told that a couple times, and was never threatened with suspension or banning. Odds are, you're safe unless you ignore warnings to change the subject. :)

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
There's a safe and easy way to do it......
Just work in how various prospective nominees affect downballot races.

You can talk about anything here, from what I've seen, as long as you relate it back to downballot federal or state elections.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It's awful tough to be silent, isn't it? I suspect the moderators MIGHT be...
...less strict this time than last time, since one factor last time had to be the contentious nomination fight on our side.

With an incumbent Democrat running for reelection, and all the fireworks on Team Red, and the obvious relevance of the Republicans' choice of a nominee to our Senate and House prospects, I'm guessing it will be more OK.

Or maybe not, maybe the moderators will remain strict.  But I'm guessing there will be more leniancy than in 2008.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
In all fairness, it's not like I plan to cheerlead for Team GOP
I'm a Democrat and a plan to vote for President Obama in his re-election bid (well, unless Olympia Snowe runs for Prez, heh). That doesn't mean I won't vote for Republicans in 2012 or that I voted a straight-Dem ticket in 2010, but that's irrelevant, given we're only talking about the upcoming cycle's president race. Why shouldn't I be able to speculate upon, make predictions, calculate voter models, and analyze the electoral on-goings on the other side? It's not like I'll be posting love letters to Sarah Palin, though I might comment upon who I think would serve her best (and worst, of course) as a VP candidate. Call me SSP's David Gergen.

I don't post here as much of an ideologue, anyway - with the exception of a post or two, I haven't even really revealed where I stand on any issues. I work with numbers. And voter models. I love politics and campaigns and I love to analyze and study candidates, whether they're Alan Grayson or Ben Quayle. What I'm precisely not here to do is shower my views on abortion or foreign policy or whatever upon the masses here. I ain't interested.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
"Why shouldn't I be able to..."
Because it isn't your website.

We are guests here.  It's not up to you what you can write about here, it is up to the owners of the site.  We can suggest the parameters of what we hope the owners allow, but you don't go into someone's house and say "why shouldn't I be able to dance the macarena all night if I want to?"  

[ Parent ]
we'll see
the Obama-Hillary wars were often cited by the SSP mods back in 07 and 08 as a big reason not to even touch the subject.  Dailykos definitely lost a portion of its readers because of it and it wasn't until maybe a few months ago, I thought, that the number of comments was back up to par.
[ Parent ]
I
pretty much stopped blogging during the Clinton Obama wars. I watched news, read stuff online but did make or look at a whole lot of comments. I'd throw out the occasional one but not very often. I was undecided for a while (two superb candidates) and both sides made me want to take refuge in a dark room until we had selected a nominee. I wish I would have known about SSP then, it would have been great for me.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
DailyKos never lost readership......
They just kept going up, up, up.  Sure they lost Clinton fans, but they gained many more in Obama fans or just Democrats who didn't have emotion invested in either one.

And really for whatever reason, Hillary didn't have much of a following among the DailyKos readership, so her supporters' abandonment of Kos didn't hurt the site much.

The entire netroots seemed to have an anyone-but-Hillary bias.

Again, this time it's a non-issue, just cat fud to enjoy from Team Red.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Oklahoma results certified (almost)
the only thing not certified is SQ755 (the anti-Sharia amendment).

the results (.pdf)

But the state results are still pretty depressing, as Democrats, who held every statewide office on the ballot (except a corporation commissioner spot) lost every statewide office, and Dan Boren couldn't run up high percentages in SE Oklahoma and lost the Tulsa suburban ring too.

And in a state with 186K more registered Dems than Reps earlier this year, Republicans got 256K straight-ticket votes for statewide offices and Dems got 158K straight ticket votes for statewide offices, which was around 40% of all the ballots. The straight ticket total for federal offices was 255K to 149K for Republicans. Stunning that Jim Rogers couldn't draw the votes.

So the SQ results, since we know of the mass beating Oklahoma Democrats took (especially in low visibility offices where people just voted Republican*)..

[* - When do we get the first non-New Hampshire "Oh crap, we elected THAT guy by accident" story out of the landslide?]

Info on the SQs

SQ744 (Requires Oklahoma to spend the same per student as the average of bordering states) - lost big (828K to 189K)
SQ746 (Voter ID) - won big (746K to 257K)
SQ747 (Statewide Term Limits) - won big (695K to 299K)
SQ748 (Changes the Redistricting Commission to 3 D/3 R, but that commission only meets if the legislature can't figure out a map) - won 567K to 403K
SQ750 (Lowers signature requirements for initiatives) - won 485K to 478K
SQ751 (English is the languages for official actions. Seriously, read it, it's swiss-cheese. "Native American languages could also be used" / "These language requirements apply to the State's "official actions." The term "official actions" is not defined.") - won 740K to 239K
SQ752 (Judicial nomination commission change) - won 606K to 358K
SQ754 (Legislature not required to make expenditures based on pre-determined formulas) - lost 361K to 614K
SQ755 (You know what it does) - Frozen in time until judges can judge it
SQ756 (Allow residents to opt out of any federal health care mandates) - won 638K to 347K
SQ757 (Increases amount of money to be put into constitutional reserve fund.) - won 499K to 479K

The no vote on 756 was higher than the vote for Kenneth Corn (Lt. Gov candidate) and Stephen Covert (Treasurer candidate).

So yes, Dan Boren may not have a winnable district in 2012.

Pelosi had over $65M in ads run against her?!
Pelosi Draws Record Attacks, Record Funds
No wonder her approvals are low.
unopposed in '08, defeated in '10
I saw that Phil Hare and Rick Boucher were the only two House incumbents to lose last week after running unopposed in 2008. That got me wondering whether any Iowa Democrats had the same experience. Yes, three Iowa House incumbents lost last Tuesday in districts were the GOP did not field a candidate in 2008. Two out of the three (Schueller and Olson) were really good, too. Bummer.
and Mollohan?

If I remember well he run unopposed in 2008.
[ Parent ]
He lost the primary.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
yes

It seems worse still.
[ Parent ]
speaking of the Iowa House
pretty much all the provisional ballots and late-arriving absentee ballots have been counted now. It looks like a 60-40 Republican majority in the Iowa House.

There may still be a recount in one Iowa Senate district, where the GOP candidate leads by 13 votes. Assuming that lead holds, the Iowa Senate will have 26 Democrats and 24 Republicans.

RI-Sen: State GOP Chairman may run against Whitehouse
The article lists some other potential GOP candidates
There's soon to be former Governor Donald Carcieri, Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian, Cranston Mayor Allen Fung, and Lincoln Town Administrator T. Joseph Almond who is described as "capable and well-liked" despite having low name recognition.  


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Fung and Avedisian
Seem like the best candidates. Isn't Carcieri really unpopular? And since when is Whitehouse vulnerable and unpopular?  
[ Parent ]
Whitehouse isn't unpopular
even if a popular RI Republican runs, he will still be swamped by the powerful Dem registration edge.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I
seem to remember reading that Carcieri  is about as popular as Arnold is in Cali.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Thats what I thought
Which is why I'm confused as to why the state party chairman wants him to run. High name rec doesn't help when that name rec is mostly people who hate you (see Whitman, Meg and McMahon, Linda)  
[ Parent ]
RI
is a blue state and Whitehouse is non controversial and I assume still fairly popular. I can't see this being competitive even with a good recruit. I mean you guys have a lot of seats you can pick up this cycle in redder states, I would assume they will be your focuses. The only person that could make it competitive is probably Chafee and he just got Governor and probably wouldn't run as a R anyhow.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah
We have a seat to defend one state to the north, and anyone at the NRSC interested in working on New England should focus on MA. I'd also put defending Snowe in Maine and putting up a good candidate in CT (in case there's an opening as a result of a split Democratic field) ahead of RI on the priority list.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Snowe's
hope is that multiple tea partiers run so they split the vote so she can slip by, like Dan Burton did. At least Snowe can rest in comfort she has a chance in the primary because Orrin Hatch won't even get onto the ballot at the UT GOP convention.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Maybe because he is the more prominent by far

And the alone with name recognition. Without him the list would sound to nothing for the big majority in Rhode Island.

I think the GOP can forget RI-Sen since now.

[ Parent ]
Yes please
barring a red wave the size of 1994 and 2010 combined, Whitehouse would walk all over Gio Cicione. The RI Republican Party would go back to its old ways of embarrassing itself after winning the governorship four times in a row and coming close the 5th time.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
CT-Sen: McMahon mulling over a 2012 run vs. Lieberman?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

I imagine this would do wonders for the Democratic nominee.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Well
if she's hoping to blow Whitman's record amount of money spent losing then by all means go ahead.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Is Lieberman going to make a run for the democratic nomination?
Or will he stick with his Connecticut 4 Lieberman party?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
If he is
he's doing a piss-poor job of laying the groundwork.
[ Parent ]
Actually,
he's been extremely quiet and relatively pliant lately. No Republican endorsements, leadership on DADT repeal (including a new statement out today advocating repeal during the lame duck), advocacy for climate change legislation, no recent anti-Dem inflammatory remarks, etc. Plus, he was on board practically every big ticket Democratic item over the past two years.

This could just mean he's trying to play nice with conservative Democrats and Dem-leaning indies for another independent bid. We'll see.

[ Parent ]
on board if you only go by the final vote
He will never win a Dem primary because of health-care reform, simply as that.
[ Parent ]
Can we really be so sure about that?
I remember reading somewhere that Connecticut is home to the headquarters of most health care insurance companies.  If that's the case then he would be voting perplexedly for a Democrat but reasonably for a Senator representing his state's interests.  
[ Parent ]
All
CT dems voted or supported reform and all won this year. Lieberman's popularity plummeted after HCR. Lieberman would be DOA in a D primary regardless of his HCR madness do to his McCain endorsement. People will not forget that.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Lieberman's popularity plummeted
partly because Republicans thought he had just committed the gravest of all possible sins: voting for the HCR bill.

Sure, CT Democrats (myself included) were upset he played such a big role in killing the public option, but that's a more forgivable sin to Democrats than voting for the bill would be to Republicans.

How many Democrats are still smarting from the public option debate? Outside the liberal blogospere, I doubt very many. We're just thankful to have HCR at all.

I'm not saying he'll have an easy go of it courting Democrats again, but his support of HCR, climate change leg, DADT repeal, the DISCLOSE Act, the stimulus, unemployment extensions, etc., will not be forgotten by Republicans any time soon.

And Lieberman seems to be making a concerted effort to play nice with Democrats. My sense is he's angling for another independent run, and wants to have enough of the center left available to him to make a plausible go of it.

[ Parent ]
Doubtful since: he's not a member of the CfL party, plus it has subsequently
morphed into an anti-Lieberman party and intends to run a candidate against Lieberman! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...
[ Parent ]
Isn't the party dead now?
Mertens didn't make 1%, so I read somewhere they wouldn't have automatic ballot access any longer.
[ Parent ]
that ia quite pathetic
And hilarious at the same time.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
I just have one question
Do you have to live in Connecticut to join this anti-Lieberman party?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
As I've said before, if Lieberman runs, it just HAS to be as an Indie again
In a Democratic primary, he'll be lucky to break 30%. In a GOP primary, there's a tinsy-winsy chance John Cornyn could try clearing the field, but even then, it's unlikely Cornyn could sway the likes of Peter Schiff. Looking back at '08 primary exit poll data, this was the ideological breakdown of the two parties...

Democrat:
Liberal - 55%
Moderate - 37%
Conservative - 8%

Not much hope for Lieberman there, especially since even moderate Dems seem to mostly loathe the guy.

Republican:
Liberal - 12%
Moderate - 31%
Conservative - 57%

This is only a marginally better outlook for Lieberman. Presuming he swept liberals and won moderates 3-to-1, he'd still need a quarter to a third of conservatives, and that'd probably be a tall order. Again, I think he'd only win the nomination if Cornyn cleared the field.

In the end, though, I think the only real path to the general is third-party again. He'll need to hope the Dems have a bruising, bloody primary, and that the CT GOP again defers to Lieberman and runs a third-rate candidate. With 20% of Dems, 60% of Republicans, and 40% of Independents, he might be competitive. Sorta. But, not really.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
What is the point of even wasting your time doing models long before the election?
Nobody can "predict" anything until next year, and probably not until 2012. This is a time for candidate recruitment.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I say the opposite, Lieberman's only path to victory is through the Dem primary......
Joe does not have a plausible path to victory as an indy or 3rd-party nominee.  He'll just get squeezed by both sides.

The reason Joe won as an indy last time is the same reason he lost the Dem primary:  Iraq.  CT GOPers will willing to treat him as the de facto Republican because he got Bush's back on the issue of that election.

But they won't do that again.  Lieberman has voted with Democrats on every floor vote this Congress, most importantly for all the major items like the stimulus, the bailouts, health care reform.  He supports global warming control legislation, he's pro-choice, and it goes on like this.  There's no major issue that compels Republicans to support him again.

So there's going to be a Republican nominee who will get 20-30% at worst; even if it's someone as weak as Schlesinger, or even Schlesinger himself, he'll get double or triple what he got last time.

Meanwhile if Lieberman goes indy, Democrats will smell blood and a serious candidate will get the nomination and knock down Joe for victory.

Lieberman's only hope is to raise many millions of dollars, endorse Obama's reelection early, keep voting with Democrats on the floor in the meantime, and keep his mouth shut on matters where he angers most Democrats...and then run as a Democrat in the primary.  If he does those things, he plausibly can either scare off all serious opposition in spite of his low job approvals/favorables, or he can draw multiple opponents who split the anti-Joe vote and let him slip through.

Lieberman has to co-opt either the right or the left to win; last time he co-opted the right, but that's not plausible again.  So he has to co-opt the left by winning the Democratic primary.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Another
poster put something like this the other day about making Joe defend his McCain endorsement. The perfect ad would be to show some clips of Palin being gaffe tastic and saying "Joe Lieberman wanted this woman to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency, Really Joe and your asking to be the Democratic nominee?" Telling ya that would be a killer, he has no chance in a primary or in the general in my view.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
She could run
against Jim Himes also.
[ Parent ]
Doubt it, she's too egotistical for that.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Sure why not.
 You blow a shitload of money against a gaffe prone, probably not the best opponent in an excellent GOP year and you get handily beat. Why not go for it in a better year for dems with Obama on the ballot and a better (Murphy) candidate than Blumenthal running. Hey it's your money. Seriously though I bet she regrets not running for Governor. I hate to admit it but she might have actually won that race. She's probably done with politics but like I said if she wants to waste her cash I could care less.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Gaffes aside,
Blumenthal probably ran stronger than almost any other Democratic candidate in CT would have this year. Out-of-staters often don't realize the enormous store of good will he's built up in the state over the past 20 years. In the end, it made Linda's attacks futile, and made them boomerang back on her.

Murphy would have gotten blown out of the water, because he's undefined to four-fifths of the state. Everyone knows Blumy, and most like him and appreciate his work.

As for governor, Foley came close because he came across as a good guy, calm, in control, a moderate who could work across the isle with Democrats. Linda would not have had that profile. Combative as she is, I don't see how she could have made that race as competitive as Foley did.

[ Parent ]
Allen West
won by a comfortable 8 points in his FL-22 district, whereas Grayson squeaked in with a much thinner 4 points in a strong Democratic 2008. Not sure how 'liberal' West's district really is. Didn't it elect Clay Shaw (R) for many years before?
Despite
the lean I am VERY confident that West will be a one term wonder. The guy's insane. He is, as anyroo put it, the GOP's Alan Grayson. Had someone with Grayson's voting record but without the gaffes and other issues ran in his district they would have lost narrowly instead of by his margin this year. West's district is conservative but not so much they will re-elect him in a neutral year once he has publicly embarrassed himself enough.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
West makes Grayson look like a meek back-bencher by comparison.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Him
and Walsh should be very easy pickups unless we have another crappy year. Even then you saw dems lose in 08. Both are guaranteed one termers. Oh and the Chipper and Bob Dold! also belongs on that list.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Cravaak and Dold
Have far better chances at re-election than West, Walsh, and Farenthold. Farenthold and Walsh may face primaries. There are a few Republican senators in Walsh's district that were talked about to replace him if he dropped out. I could see one of them beating him in a primary. Farenthold probably has no chance at winning his primary. Cravaak is pretty competent and sane. If West tones it down a little (not looking likely with his choice for CoS) he could win. Dold is also competent and sane, plus a very strong fundraiser.  
[ Parent ]
I agree, Dold is Kirk-esque.
Next time, we'll run a strong Dem who is not run Seals and see how that goes.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Nope, redistricting takes him out. It's easy to forget this, and many do!......
There have been a lot of comments this week that forget about redistricting.  There is a lot of uncertainty, but in some cases it can be said with confidence who will be targeted for elimination.  I think Dold is one.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
This is the first redistricting that I have paid attention to.
The thought of these districts being redrawn and whatnot has not fully sunk in.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
One issue with IL-10 Redistricting
This district seems to be determined beyond all reason or logic to elect Republican Representatives while voting for Democrats on a presidential level.

If we finally push enough Democrats into his district to push it over the edge, won't this district be absorbing too many Democrats from surrounding areas? This district has already, at D+6, has elected Republicans into congress.If we just surrender this district, and make it into the crudest Republican vote sink that can theoretically pass a court, won't we be in much better shape in surrounding districts?

I feel like this is similar to Delay's attempt to gerrymander Chet Edwards out of existence. He created a gigantic Republican vote sink for Chet Edwards, and it still took four elections before it finally worked. I would rather just cede IL-10 forever, and try to distribute Democrats to lots of different districts.


[ Parent ]
Nope
It's bordered to the south by IL-9, which is a D+20 seat that can be dropped down to D+15 in order to screw with Dold with absolutely no negative consequences for us.
[ Parent ]
Yup, it's actually quite easy. Dold is a goner. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
If your going to give a district to the Republicans though
Why would you give them the one with the only Republican in the congressional delegation who could be a threat? Why wouldn't they try to give Walsh or Hultgren, both too conservative, and, in Walsh's case, incompetent to be a threat?
[ Parent ]
Target Dold and Roskam
I want Schakowsky to sacrifice some ground to IL-10 to take out Dold, and then Quigley to sacrifice to take out Roskam. Two easy pick-ups right there

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Cravaack
He lives at the very extreme southern tip of the district. Way far away from the cultural and political center of the district. Iron Range voters are not going to be too pleased when he votes like a suburban Republican (because that is what he is). Turnout in the suburbs was way up, while in Northern Minnesota, Democratic margins were way lower than they were in 2008 and 2012. Unless Obama comes close to losing the state, Cravaack will be swarmed by someone who hasn't been in Washington for 50 years. A lot of this depends on where districts are drawn, but there really is no way for Cravaack to have his district made safer so long as it keeps NE Minnesota.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Dold has zero chance because Dems fully control IL redistricting......
Assuming Walsh beats Bean, that gives the IL GOP 5 House freshmen.  At least 4 will be toast.

IL loses a seat, and state Dems will make sure that's a GOPer.  I bet they throw Schilling and Schock together, but there are many other plausible options.

Then they'll throw some Dem precincts into IL-10, making it unwinnable for Dold; basically they'll do to him what MD Dems did to Connie Morella a decade ago.  Dold's district is the lowest-hanging fruit, so he'll be the top target.

After that they might blue-up at least 2 of 3 between Hultgren, Kinzinger, and Walsh.  Maybe there's a way to do all 3, I don't know.

But IL Dems surely are licking their chops, they can potentially turn 5 seats in one election for Team Blue.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Dold
Is probably the biggest target too, since he has the brightest future. The rest are too conservative and/or from the wrong part of the state.  
[ Parent ]
Not
to mention Obama will be on the ballot next year.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Walsh and Schilling are def. gone
As a resident of IL-10 I'm not so sure about Dold--if he votes like Kirk he could win even in a more Democratic district. The district LOVES to ticket-split--they'll vote for Obama and then vote for the least-offensive Republican on the ballot (there are no statewide elections in IL so after President comes Congress). The other question is who runs for the Democrats--if Seals or a Some Dude like Hank Perritt (the 2002 nominee against Kirk) I could see Dold winning.

As for Kinzinger and Hultgren, I'm not sure how D you can make their districts. They could lose in a big D year, although 2012 will be one with Obama on the ballot in IL...

[ Parent ]
Well, not so sure about Foster and Halvorson's districts.
Weren't they originally gerrymandered for Republicans?  They are oddly shaped as well.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Dold can't win a more Democratic district......
New voters will never have seen him on a ballot and won't care about him, his voting record won't matter.  And you just add loyal Democratic precincts to the district and take away Republican precincts, and there's no way his margin doesn't go away.

The state leg and Quinn will know what they're doing, Dold won't survive.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Well
I think he'll be a 1 term wonder, because he's about to lose his district.

There's no way FL-22 stands up with the new Florida ballot initiative.

Ultimately, the guy is a Lt. Col. and an Iraq veteran, so I think he has a future somewhere.

Unlike Grayson, though, I don't recall him saying anything outlandish about his opponent.

I just can't wait to see him crash the Congressional Black Caucus, personally. He's not going to take crap from them, that's for sure.

[ Parent ]
He has no business touting military credentials.
He bowed out to avoid a court martial for his war crimes, for pete's sake.  He's a disgrace to the uniform.

Unlike West, Grayson has never tortured POWs.

And yes, the CBC has invited West to join them.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
And
I believe West wants to join the CBC while Tim Scott doesn't want to. I'm not in the business of defending West, but at least he didn't go straight into the gutter and then some unlike Grayson. Who told Grayson that he could win by airing ads calling his opponent a draft dodger and manipulating a video clip to make it look like he wants women to have the same rights as they did during the Middle Ages?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Grayson made a fatal error.
In my opinion, both should have lost.  West, on top of everything else, has called for violent revolution as a viable option if things don't go their way.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
West
Benefited from the same sympathy voters felt for Webster in FL-08. Klein was the one who ran the very dirty campaign, with mailers showing West's social security number. With the high senior population in that district, that was probably a big factor in his victory.  
[ Parent ]
I agree, Klein should have done much better.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
And I'll move off of talking about West.
Thinking about him makes my blood boil and I risk  seriously derailing this thread.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
If this is your only evidence
Klein was the one who ran the very dirty campaign, with mailers showing West's social security number.

Then you need to seriously reconsider, because Klein, quite simply, didn't do this. It was the Florida Democratic Party which goofed and put out those flyers - an entity Klein had no control over - not the Klein campaign. But in any event, even if this could be laid at Klein's feet (though it can't), some dumb fuckup like this hardly rises to the level of a "very dirty campaign."

[ Parent ]
I
just want you to know that preventing West from serving another term is in the best interests of what little sanity is left in this nation and I hope that if any of the fair districts amendment holds up, it widens his district and threatens his ability to hold it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Well
There's a sizable portion of the country that has no problem with that.

I know the CBC has invited him. The question is what happens when he joins.

[ Parent ]
Torture has no justification.
Even if 90% of the nation agreed with it, that does not make it right.  He is no more an officer than I am.  He has disgraced his position and will fall into military history infamy.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
With
do respect that is a lot of spin. I have never liked Grayson and am not defending him. West's military career is nothing to be proud of. He does not know how to keep his mouth shut, very gaffe prone. He would lose next cycle regardless of redistricting and has no political future whatsoever. I will not comment on the CBC.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Not political future
He'll get an appointed position of some sort, or he'll write a book, or he will join Fox News.
[ Parent ]
Who
would appoint him and to what? I do not doubt Fox News hires him, not really a career in politics though I guess it kind of is if you look at the frontrunners for Prez next cycle.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
RNC
He's a black Tea Party Republican. Gender politics probably make him useful somewhere.

[ Parent ]
err
That should be racial politics.
[ Parent ]
well it didnt work out with Michael Steele
And tea partiers as a whole are quite racist.
[ Parent ]
Steele's
just incompetent. Is the RNC blog still named "Sup" or something?  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Why would he want to join the CBC?
He does not believe in the CBC so he would do better to pull a J.C. Watts and not join.  What does joining the CBC accomplish for him?  It just seems weird to me.  Why create a caucus with Scott for SC?  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Because
West has said that he wants to join the CBC to offer a dissenting opinion.  He seems to honestly believe that his message is valuable for blacks looking to break out of poverty.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
My issue with Conservative Black Republicans...
is the same with Conservative Republicans...

But he will join the CBC will offer a dissenting view to whom? Most blacks don't follow the workings of the CBC so if he wants to add a dissenting view when the CBC meets (in private) how does this help his cause?

Just odd...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
Agree completely. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
It's quite a swing district
Yes, it did elect Shaw for many years and was drawn for a Republican, but it's got a swing to it. It's one of those places where being over the top can be a recipe for one term.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
FL-22 voted for Kerry
FL-8 voted for Bush by a wide margin. If redistricting does not favor the GOP because of the new amendments, West could be even more vulnerable. If he completely embarrasses himself, and the Democrats bounce back in 2012, I think he will lose, or at least have a very tough race on his hands.
[ Parent ]
I've mentioned before
That there seems to be a "Law of Conservation of Bombastic Florida Alans" (or Allens) in place. Orlando gets rid of theirs, while Boca Raton decides to give one a try.

West's route to survival is:
1. Cut back on some of the rhetoric
2. Hope that the fair districts initiative gets tossed out in court and the state legislature attaches his home to the super-Republican areas in South Central Florida.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Getting tossed out in court
Isn't this what Republicans gripe about, with the "activist judges"? I just don't understand how their can be such ire at the Iowa Supreme Court for overturning the voters, and yet HOPING that the Florida supreme Court does the same. It strikes me as insanely hypocritical.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Don't shoot the messenger
I'm just reporting on what the Florida GOP would like. Generally, Republicans love activist judges so long as they are conservative activists. Otherwise, we whine to no end about how the liberal lawyers are ruining America.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Haha
I appreciate the honesty on that one. Most Republicans would fight that point. I give you credit for manning up and admitting to what is quite obvious to everyone else.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Not just the RPOF
Corrine Brown has also filed a lawsuit against it.  
[ Parent ]
That doesn't surprise me
Although I have not heard that before. But getting elected as a Democrat in a non-gerrymandered district in Jacksonville will be tough for a Democrat like her.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
tossing them out of court
will be difficult. It's an amendment to the Constitution, not a law. You can't say that something explicitly in the Constitution is unconstitutional.

And they allowed it on the ballot, so it has some staying power.

[ Parent ]
VRA
They have to argue that it violates federal law that supersedes the Florida constitution, namely the VRA. But the amendment specifically mentions protection of minority voting power as a criterion, so they won't get anywhere.  
[ Parent ]
West
First of all, it's very difficult to speculate about next term because there is no way to know what the districts in South Florida will look like after redistricting.  A lot depends on the court case being brought against the fair districts.  While there is no doubt that FL-22 was shaped to help Clay Shaw, much of it's western boundary is by necessity shaped by Alecee Hasting's district, which runs down the railroad tracks.
The idea that West is 'crazy' or is going to behave like Grayson is far from proven; he didn't win just to throw it away and unlike Grayson, he isn't a multi-millionaire.
I don't want to get into policy - people like to say that he 'tortured' somebody, but most voters wouldn't buy that simply shooting a gun next to someone's head to scare them is torture.  For sure, Klein (who as others have noted, ran a dirty campaign) didn't try to make any hay of this.  He knew it wouldn't resonate.  Lt. Col. West ran on his military record because he's proud of it.
Depending on how the district is cut, Klein might have another go at it.  He didn't disqualify himself with the campaign her ran.  But West is worth a lot to the GOP and they'll do their level best to protect him.  He will not be an easy target and those who think he's a sure loser are not basing this on the evidence.  

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
MT-Sen: Tester's office posted a diary on Dkos today.
In it, they discuss the issue of suicides on Native American land.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Los Angeles County finally updates...
... and it doesn't look good for Kamala Harris.

The SOS website hasn't updated anything all day, but the LA County results page shows new numbers than that of the SoS website: http://rrccmain.co.la.ca.us/00...

If my calculations are correct, Harris picked-up 71,866 votes and Cooley picked-up 62,095 votes - a net of just 9,700 votes for Harris. That's undeniably smaller than what she needs. (SSP's chart projected she'd pick-up 45,000 out of 330,000 remaining LA ballots.)

Twitter.com/Taniel

how many ballots are left?


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Kent Conrad may drop
Budget to move to Agriculture Chair for the Farm Bill.

Does anyone think Ben Nelson needs this committee to survive 2012? It certainly didn't help Blanche Lincoln, but she had way too many other problems.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Good
But article doesn't say who would take over for him.
[ Parent ]
Patty Murray appears to be next in line on Budget.

[ Parent ]
Big improvement

[ Parent ]
Kamala Harris won today's Orange County count.
She trails 2:1 in Orange County, so not sure where this came from, but here's the link to the county registar: http://www.ocvote.com/live/gen...

Compared to the SoS's totals from this morning, Harris netted 3592 votes and Cooley 3166 votes.

This won't win her the election, especially if she doesn't pick-up the pace in LA County dramatically, but Cooley was counting on the remaining Orange County ballots (54,000 according to SSP's count from yesterday) to build up his lead.

But a cold shower from San Diego: Cooley pockets 7680 votes, Harris 5110, a net difference of 2570. That's better for Cooley than San Diego's results up to now.

Twitter.com/Taniel

Miller Sues in Federal Court
GOP nominee Joe Miller is asking a federal judge to keep the state from using discretion in counting write-in ballots in Alaska's hotly contested Senate race.

http://www.adn.com/2010/11/09/...

Geez, someone's nervous.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I would normally not care
But Miller acted like an entitled ass after he won the primary by tweeting about how he was already measuring Murk's Senate office for new furniture and drapes and stuff.

Then, he totally iced it all when his bodyguards acted like total thugs.  I understand nobody likes reporters, but you escort them out, you don't arrest them.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Who would've thunk it?
From Nate Silver:

Some House polls had a real severe bias. The 17 Mark Penn polls for the Hill were biased by 6.2 points toward Democrats on average.

And here we thought that Penn was biased the other way!!!  Man, what a lousy cycle!

I would not have thought that at all
But seeing as some Democrats lost by bigger numbers than their polling showed, it does make sense.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
when were those polls in the field?
If a couple of weeks before the election, a difference of 6 percent might just show a late move among undecideds to Republicans.
[ Parent ]
SF-Mayor: State Senator Leland Yee looks likely to announce run tomorrow
Via Doug Sovern's Twitter feed (very good CBS Bay Area reporter)  https://twitter.com/#!/SovernN...

I'm not in his district, but from what I know Yee's pretty well known and well liked by his constituents.  His biggest problem is probably that his district covers only the western half of the city.  This may be offset by his long history in SF politics: he's been an assemblyman, supervisor, and President of the San Francisco School Board.

And in case anyone's worried, Obama won almost 76% here in 2008.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Interesting
well seeing how this is Yee's last term in the state senate and how Steinberg stripped him of his senate pro tem position for voting against the state budget this year he has nothing to lose. I wonder, will he earn some praise among progressives for going after the CSU or some organization linked to it for inviting Sarah Palin to speak in front of wealthy donors and proceeding to try to hide how much they paid her?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure if it will make much of a difference
The proposed bill seems a bit too complicated to me to make a big splash one way or another.  



21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Btw the election will be held in November 2011
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

As to who will take over the office until at least next November... it's complicated http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
I know quite a few people who dislike Leland Yee
I'm not registered here in SF to vote, but I may have to do that to vote against this jerk.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
NE-Sen: GOP poll finds Nelson at 50% favorable, but down 15 vs. Bruning
not a good place to start, but
the 56% republicans that makeup this poll is unlikely to hold come 2012, but nelson still needs to win indies massively, as well as do better among R's than is normal these days.  i'd say, 30-40% chance of victory at the moment

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Nelson won 42% of Republicans in 2006.
and 73% of Independents.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I wonder what the breakdown was in 2000 when he won 51-49.
2006 doesn't count because Nelson had token opposition then and won with 64% of the overall vote.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
2012 NE-Sen Model
Assuming an average of the actual 2008 turnout and this "likely voter" poll's turnout for 2012, I modeled Nelson's path to victory

Republican: 54%
Democrats: 34.5%
Independents/Others: 11.5%

Nelson 19/97/57 = 50.2%
Republican: 81/3/43 = 49.8%

Obviously, holding 97% of Democrats, a 14-point margin with independents, and holding 19% of Republicans seems like a ridiculously tall order. The same model nets 52.3% if you had identical to 2008 turnout, but that seems ludicrious. I think averaging a 2010 likely voter poll and a 2008 actual voter poll is a fair balance for guessing 2012 in 2010.

As far as the 2000 election, all I found from searching for a few minutes was an ancient poll showing Ben Nelson ahead 12 points with 28% of the Republican vote.  

[ Parent ]
Pete Ricketts was not token opposition!
anybody who ran this ad thousands of times was clearly a contender.

I wish that the YouTube kept the ad where Pete Ricketts told us "Sick of seeing my ads? I'm sick of buying them!"... no kidding, moron..

[ Parent ]
Heh
I joined SSP to comment on the "Worst Campaign Ads" thread three years ago. I remember the Ricketts "Sick of seeing my ads?" ad from that. We need to do another thread like that.
[ Parent ]
He
had an ad where he asked if voters were sick of seeing his ads?! Ace! I would of loled immediately if Meg Whitman aired an ad like that.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
A poll set to "likely voters" this far off from 2012 is ridiculous
The key takeaway:
His approval rating - in a GOP survey that looked at [499] likely voters and, as such, emphasized Republicans - appears to have increased since January, when an Omaha World-Herald Poll of registered voters found that 42 percent approved of the Democrat shortly after he cast the deciding vote in favor of President Barack Obama's health-care law.

So it's pretty good news.  And 2012 is a presidential year that could help turn out the base in Omaha.

It's good that Nelson's approval rating has gone up.  This bodes well after his approval was in the tank almost a year ago.  

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
It's hard to even say "likely voters" with a straight face
Some of the sample won't even be alive in two years.  Heavily Republican, very light independant sample too.  Regardless of that though, Nelson is in much better shape than the doom and gloomers who have proclaimed his death assert.  he's a popular Democrat running in a red state.  Dems win such races a decent amount of the time.  If he was 10 points underwater in popularity that would be a whole different thing.
[ Parent ]
Likely voter poll?
This early? Who cares? The fact that Nelson has a high favorable is good though.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: I wouldn't be against Menino
I've been thinking that Boston needs some fresh blood in office anyway. Possibly someone who'll work to expand the MBTA service so I don't have to walk back to campus from Allston completely hammered.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
WA-08, DelBene's strong campaign
Still counting votes in Washington, and it looks like DelBene is going to lose by 4% or so to Reichert.

That's honestly pretty damn good. I think DelBene will be in Congress within 5 years. She already would be if she had run instead of Burner in 06 or 08.

BTW, Murray's lead over Rossi is now close to 5%.

WA-07, 34 years old

NV-Sen: Ensign approval at 64% among Republicans, up 8 over Heller in primary
SSP Daily Digest: 11/9 | 165 comments

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