Google Ads


Site Stats

CT-Gov: AP Withdraws Malloy Call

by: James L.

Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 10:21 PM EDT


Uh-oh:

The Associated Press is withdrawing its call of Democrat Dan Malloy as the winner of Connecticut's race for governor.

The Associated Press based its call on statements by the Connecticut Secretary of State. Susan Bysiewicz that Malloy had defeated Republican Tom Foley by 3,103 votes and that there would be no statewide recount, if her preliminary totals held.

AP's vote count now shows Foley with a lead of 8,424 votes over Malloy, with all but 1.5 percent of the precincts counted. Bysiewicz has not released any vote results to support her statements earlier Wednesday.

UPDATE: Jeez. Both Malloy and Foley are declaring victory and announcing transition teams.

LATER UPDATE: Taniel, in the comments here and over at his own blog points to some pretty seriously sloppy number-counting by the Associated Press, amounting to a significant under-reporting of Malloy's vote in the city of New Haven. I'll note here that as someone who has more than a few liveblogs under my belt, I can think of several instances where the AP has made significant errors in their tabulation of results. (For instance, they made big errors in their OH-15 and SC-01 results reporting last cycle.) While an invaluable resource, they've been known to make mistakes!
James L. :: CT-Gov: AP Withdraws Malloy Call
Tags: , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

CT-Gov: AP Withdraws Malloy Call | 95 comments
CNN called this very early last night
I was surprised that they called it then with Foley ahead in early returns, and they rescinded that call a few hours later. This is now tied with GA-02 for most "un-calls" although that was worse because they called it for the wrong guy the first two times.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
Tempting fate
This is what some of us get for being happy about CT...
CT-04
Jim Himes still trails there. 84% of the vote is counted. Dan Debicella has already conceded, but, if the race is certified, and he is the winner, does it matter that he conceded?  
Wouldn't matter
He's the winner of the vote, that he conceded is actually irrelevant to who won.

That said, I doubt he'd concede if he thought he was the winner, we'll see what the rest of the precincts are like.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Concessions are classy gestures and non-binding
A candidate doesn't have to concede to their opponent--they can run around insisting the campaign is not over, but when the results are certified, whoever has the most votes takes office. Alan Keyes never conceded to Obama in 2004.

If Debicella finds himself up after the counting is finsihed, he will withdraw his concession.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Um, no one concedes simply to make a "classy gesture," they do so because their own math shows....
...they have ZERO chance to win.

And it's not like Debicella would've relied on an AP call to concede.  Any high-level campaign has its own vote counters or has a state or national party apparatus providing vote counters to keep tabs on everything.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
A concession is a classy gesture
There are examples, like Alan Keyes, of classless candidates who do not accept defeat and do not call their opponent to concede and make a public concession speech, even when the math shows they have zero chance to win. There is no law requiring a candidate to concede defeat-they do so out of respect for the democratic process and their opponent.

And candidates have mistakenly conceded defeat before. Al Gore conceded the Presidency in 2000 a few hours before he realized Florida was still up for grabs and withdrew his concession.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Gore conceded and then called Bush to take it back
n/t

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...
[ Parent ]
I thought that's what user MassGOP said, n/t

[ Parent ]
On the other hand....
Who would want to get a phone call from Alan Keyes, even if it was to concede?  
[ Parent ]
When he conceded
He was still up pretty big. He was supposed to be trailing by now, but he still leads by a few 100.
[ Parent ]
There are 10 precincts
to report from Bridgeport, which could represent another 15,000 votes, of which Himes could get upwards of 70%. That's a margin of thousands of votes for Himes in one fell swoop.
[ Parent ]
Bridgeport isn't all in
It has thousands of votes yet to report.
[ Parent ]
10
This and Maffei would be a real kick in the balls.

29/D/Male/NY-01
Confusion
The AP claims New Haven is all in, and Malloy leads 7000 votes to 1500 votes. But the New Haven Independent has Malloy leading by 16000 votes in the city of New Haven, however: http://www.newhavenindependent...

But I'm afraid I'm mixing up "county" and "town", perhaps?

Twitter.com/Taniel

Dude
I think you need to do a diary on this.
[ Parent ]
I'm on it.
Was hoping not to spend too much time on elections tonight, but at this point...

Twitter.com/Taniel
[ Parent ]
FWIW, There Were Mistakes in 2008
I managed Himes' campaign in 2008. I can't remember if the problem was at the town level or with the SoS, but for days it was being reported that we had won one of the towns around Bridgeport--Shelton maybe? I can't remember--which in fact had been won by Shays.  

And not a single thing that's gone wrong in Bridgeport or with the SoS has surprised me.  We came damn close to having some of these same exact problems in 2008.  

[ Parent ]
And You're Not Mixing Up County and Town
In 2006, the town of New Haven went for DeStefano 16K to 8K, but the country of New Haven went for Rell 161K to 93K

The 7K vs 1.5K number doesn't make any sense, unless you accept that turnout in the town of New Haven was only 1/3 what it was in 2006.  And I don't accept that.

[ Parent ]
Especially since the county cast 26000 votes in the Senate race...
[ Parent ]
Now You ARE Mixing up County and Town
In 2006, the COUNTY of New Haven cast about 263K votes for US Senate, while the TOWN of New Haven cast less than one-tenth that amount, the 26K you mention.  

http://www.ct.gov/sots/cwp/vie...

[ Parent ]
no no
I meant that in the 2010 Senate race, i.e. in CNN/AP's current results of yesterday's vote, Blumenthal-McMahon attracted 26,000 votes in New Haven while Malloy-Foley attracted 9,000 votes in New Haven. Clearly a mistake in the latter.

Twitter.com/Taniel
[ Parent ]
Here's my summary of the Connecticut situation
For those who are interested, or want to correct me: http://campaigndiaries.com/201...

Twitter.com/Taniel
[ Parent ]
Thanks Taniel...
This actually looks like a pretty big scoop - Courant, other state papers, WaPo, etc...none of them have it.

I'm going to Facebook your article, because many of my friends will be interested.

[ Parent ]
Follow-up
I went through 2006 and 2010 results again, and the AP results make no sense to me: Most of New Haven is simply missing, though they say 100% is reporting.

The New Haven results should be 21,000-3,000 (not 7,500-1,500).

That means a net 9,000 votes more for Malloy - and a lead, with some of Bridgeport still out.

Twitter.com/Taniel

[ Parent ]
That's comforting
I await further info.
[ Parent ]
Political reporters screw up a lot, I bet the AP is wrong here......
Political reporters screw up on everything.  I'd be rich if I had a dollar every time one of them said a poll shows an election "outside the margin of error" when it's a 4-point margin between candidates with a 3% margin of error.

It wouldn't surprise me if whoever the AP assigned to this story didn't stop to think that maybe they made a mistake in their own vote count somewhere.  And the SoS says something different without "explaining" it, but it's not among the SoS's duties to "explain" vote counts to the AP; her job is to just count the votes and say what they are.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I mean just last night...
... the AP had Ken Buck crushing Bennet in Boulder Co. of all places.  
[ Parent ]
That's got to be it!
Here's Malloy's statement, which also mentions New Haven:

The Malloy camp, however, issued a statement late Wednesday night refusing to back down from its declaration of victory.

"We are aware what the AP is reporting, and we're confident they're wrong. Their numbers for New Haven are wrong, and they're leaving out a significant number of votes in Bridgeport. We remain confident that we are ahead by more than enough votes to avoid a recount," Malloy campaign manager Dan Kelly said.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/20...

[ Parent ]
New Haven's a city of about 130k
No way there were less than 10k votes. AP is going to end up with egg on its face, especially as the CT secretary of state says they're wrong.
[ Parent ]
Projected vote total isn't the best idea in the world.
I hope they reconsider this next year.
I imagine Republicans must be looking at Susan Bysiewicz...
...as the Dems' version of Katherine Harris.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
She's certainly behaving that way
And I think this isn't the first example.  
[ Parent ]
it's not
the other day she allowed people to wear WWE merchandise at the polls, saying it's not a advertising for any specific candidate.  righhhttttttt........

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
In that case, I'd look at Susan Bysiewicz
as the Democratic --heroic-- version of Katherine Harris.
[ Parent ]
I'd take a successful Katherine Harris,
but at this point we've moved on Senate run phase.  
[ Parent ]
Is Susan the one who
wanted to run for another office but the court said she couldn't?
[ Parent ]
Think so

[ Parent ]
CT
Yes, polling also showed she was leading the pack for GOV and she passed that up for AG which she legally could not run for.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
and she did this right when Blumey
Ran for Dodd's seat when he was already the heir apparent to getting to take out Lieberdouche.  If she wants to run against him, then she should have said so instead of trying to find another smaller race to run in.
[ Parent ]
No,
she announced her run for AG (switching from Gov) when Blumenthal announced he would be running for Senate and not seeking reelection as AG.
[ Parent ]
Yes.
Curiously, an informed friend tells me that the same people who, along with Jepsen, helped boot out Bysiewicz that way, are among those who were trying to get Jepsen booted as well.  What goes around comes around?

But Jepsen won the election, and a judge threw out the case IIRC.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Well, this is a mess
Could be awhile.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
heh
It isn't often that the rest of the country gets to make fun of Connecticut. It's usually Florida or Louisiana.

41, Ind, CA-05
Or South Carolina
or New York.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Or California.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Or Texas


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Or Oklahoma* and Mississippi*
*Primarily made fun of by Texans

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Texas has no right to make fun of anyone after re-electing moron Perry.


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
God, that was disappointing
What were they thinking? He didn't even show up to debates. White all but swept newspaper endorsements, even with editorial boards that drooled all over Gov. Perry in 2006 and 2002. It shouldn't have even been close - and it wasn't, but in the wrong direction.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Texans believe in limited government and spending
And when Perry was able to get the current Houston mayor (also a Democrat) saying that the budget that Houston was running the last 5 years was business like, and unsustainable.  That put the final nail in Bill Whites coffin.

The truth is, the fact that the election wasn't even more of a blow out, tell you how disappointed Texans are with Rick Perry.

[ Parent ]
Glad to know you know what all Texans believe
and have the good grace to inform all of us ignorant liberals.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Well the Texas house went from +4 to +48
The Texas House went from +4 for Republicans to +48 with a chance of the Republicans having a +50 (holding 100 of the 150 total seats) advantage after all absentee ballots are counted.

You can read into that what you want.

[ Parent ]
Sorry, didn't actually mean to come across sounding snappy
but seriously. with the HCR reform and now this. Sounding way too much like Republican talking points.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I didn't mean that it should be repealed completely
I do agree that it has some good points.  But when all polls show that the American People dislike the HCR bill.  And a reported quoted a poll to Obama during his address yesterday that 1 in 2 voters voted the way that they did because they wanted the HCR bill repealed.  And the "wave" was the second biggest "wave" in American history.  And both Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenburg say before the election, that all the big drops in Obama's popularity coincide with the passage of the big bills that were passed.  Do you still feel that Health Care Reform, Cap and Trade, ect had nothing to do with the election out come?
[ Parent ]
Actually, exit polls showed voters split on HCR
you are spinning this hard, bro.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Then why was the wave so historic
The Republican Party ran on two things, decrease spending and repeal Health Care Reform.  If you don't believe that HCR had nothing to do with the wave, then why was the wave so historic?
[ Parent ]
What a ridiculous overgeneralization
it could be for any number of things. People don't want all branches of government to belong to one party. Low turnout. In Rick Boucher's case, cap and trade. If your theory were true, wouldn't the wave only hit at the federal level?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Personal opinion
Spending.  I may well be wrong, but my biggest concern right now is the lack of accountability of BOTH parties in congress right with spending.  That is my biggest concern with the HCR bill, spending the money that the bill will cost, in the middle of a huge recession.
[ Parent ]
Actually, the HCR bill saves the government money.
Sorry about that slightly pesky fact.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
The economy is shit

[ Parent ]
Yup, if unemployment were even below 9%
Ds would have come at least closer to holding the House.

The exit polls suggest that it's still "the economy, stupid".

[ Parent ]
Yup, and that really is the whole ballgame right there......
If the unemployment rate were, say, 8.5, we MIGHT have held the House.  If it were below 8, we WOULD hold the House and would've had losses only in the 20s.

Everything in this election went back to the economy.  If we had robust job growth for much of this year and unemployment dropped to around 8% or even lower, public opinion would be "the stimulus and bailouts worked, so even though I hated them at the time I can see they were necessary."  And the deficits and national debt would draw shrugs.  HCR still wouldn't be well-liked, but it would be less disliked, and keep in mind part of the disillusion with it is the perception that "Democrats did this INSTEAD of focusing on the economy."  Again, if the economy were better, than HCR wouldn't be so disliked.

Every political problem we've had these past 2 years ultimately points back to poor job growth and stubborn unemployment.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The economy is terrible
But, if it was all about the economy in Texas, why did Texans re elect Rick Perry, and give the Texas House almost a 2/3rds majority?  When both where in charge in Texas to begin with.

I can only speak for myself.  But, my biggest concern was spending, not the economy.  I can only speak for my area.  But I know Patrick Rose and Diana Maldonado both incumbent Democrats lost.  And the only adds run against them where to attack them on spending and taxes.

[ Parent ]
Not near as bad in TX
Seriously Texas likes what it likes.  Everything else is just trying to avoid the obvious...Texas doesn't like Democrats.
[ Parent ]
Yup.
And what these Texas voters like...I hate with a passion. In addition, I can't find a job to save my life in this "not as bad" economy.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Simple: the economy and 9.5% unemployment
And you exaggerate the size of the wave, because you're only looking at the House. The shellacking that Dems took in the Senate and the Governor's mansions, while bad, was not historic.
[ Parent ]
Because turnout sucked.
I'm glad California, Hawaii, Delaware, Rhode Island, and possibly Connecticut and Vermont didn't drink the Kool-Aid.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Massachusetts too!
Delaware, New England, and the West Coast are the only sane parts of this country left apparently.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
True.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Yet they have no problem with big military spending.
I can't wait to get out of this extremely overrated place.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
And especially after the Rangers' performance against the Giants.
I was pretty despondent last night about the election results. But today I had excellent CA results and a big ol' Giants victory parade to cheer me up! Great way to recover from electoral hangover.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
As a Phillies fan
And a Sestak fan, I'm giving you a big "fu*% you" LOL.
[ Parent ]
Awkward for Rell
As the outgoing governor, she has to help the governor elect with their transition. With both candidates already beginning their transition, this could get awkward for her. It could also be awkward for them. I mean, what if they happen to be moving furniture into the bedroom at the same time?
Maybe
Foley and Malloy should flip a coin to see who'll be governor for a day.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
They could take turns
Malloy for a month, then Foley for a month.  
[ Parent ]
Thanks,
but I'll take my duly elected Democratic governor instead.
[ Parent ]
I bet this isn't really that hard for Rell at all......
I would bet she has a handle on the vote count situation, I bet she's even aware of Bridgeport and New Haven, I bet she knows not to trust an AP reporter, and I bet it's easy for her to tell the candidates to just cool their heels until the counting is done and the vote is certified.

I have no inside info, but I imagine this whole thing isn't so awkward for her at all.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
What
a huge clusterfuck.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
See above
AP seems to have undercounted New Haven by about 15k votes.
[ Parent ]
What a mess...
Hopefully the AP is wrong and Malloy will be Connecticut's next governor. But talk about starting out on the wrong foot.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
Hard to believe one news agency
can delegitimize a whole state administration. Thanks, corporate America!
[ Parent ]
AP isn't saying Foley won
They're just saying we aren't sure Malloy won--which at this moment, we can't be. We'll all know the winner in due time--hopefully they can count all the ballots without too much controversy/legal challenges/recounts that go on for months.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I don't think there will be much need
for further counting, assuming AP's representation of the New Haven numbers are as messed up as they appear to be.
http://campaigndiaries.com/201...
[ Parent ]
Unless the CT SoS has been outsourced
I don't think it's the AP's call. It sure sounds like Susan B is on the job.

And assuming the AP is wrong, I don't think it'll hurt Malloy. After all, the image of the press is about at the same level as most of our politicians.

[ Parent ]
Sketchy SoS from Connecticut
I don't really trust this SoS from Connecticut. She was the one that said anyone wearing anything with WWE logo on it would be turned away from the polls. That to me seems unconstitutional. I wouldn't put it past her to fudge the numbers here.
That's really silly
to suggest that taking an aggressive position (which you have mischaracterized) on electioneering equals being willing to commit a heinous breach of public duty by manufacturing Democratic votes.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Now Sheamus
Stop being silly. She may or may not have been over the top about the WWE clothing at polling stations. That does not even remotely make her capable of or willing to fudge the numbers. Read the links in the diary and you will see that AP must have got it wrong.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki
[ Parent ]
New reports out
The Hartford Courant obtained vote totals for New Haven from Secy. Bysiewicz's office. Gov.-elect Malloy will net 18,600 votes there, which will be sufficient to...well, I already used the title. Bysiewicz is expected to make a formal announcement at noon.

http://www.courant.com/news/po...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Beat me to it


Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Hartford Courant: Latest counts from New Haven could put Malloy on top
http://www.courant.com/news/po...

Sounds fairly insurmountable.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

I think the governor's race should be re-called
and the CT-04 race should be un-called, actually.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
Based on what?
The AP numbers show Himes down by about 1,000. This does not include ANY votes from Bridgeport. There will be 25k+ votes reported there, and Himes should win them decisively. I wouldn't be surprised if he nets over 12k more votes.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/f...

[ Parent ]
How many of those Bridgeport votes are likely to be thrown out
if the Republicans get their way with those shenanigans?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
For Himes not to win,
they'd have to throw out virtually all of them - even the 21k votes or so that were on official, machine-readable ballots. Not gonna happen.
[ Parent ]
CT-Gov: AP Withdraws Malloy Call | 95 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox