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WA-09: AP Calls Race for Smith (D); WA-02: Larsen Takes First Lead

by: DavidNYC

Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 8:36 PM EDT


Via Taniel, some good news: The AP has called WA-09 for Dem Rep. Adam Smith, over Republican Dick Muri. Local media called this one yesterday (see here and here), but I guess the AP wanted to be cautious. Also, I'm the millionth person to say this, but Washington really needs to switch to an Oregon-style in-by-election-day voting system, not the postmarked-by-election-day regime they currently have.

Also from Taniel:

Rep. Rick Larsen just inched into his first lead in WA-2, albeit a narrow one: 397 votes! (30% of ballots remain to be counted.)
DavidNYC :: WA-09: AP Calls Race for Smith (D); WA-02: Larsen Takes First Lead
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WA-09: AP Calls Race for Smith (D); WA-02: Larsen Takes First Lead | 35 comments
Also, Murray has expanded her lead
http://elections.komonews.com/...

Net gain of about 10,000 votes...I think this one is pretty much done!

West Coast = AWESOME!!!!


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Best Coast
And I say this as a Marylander.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
The West is the Best!
The sun may rise in the east, but it sets in a fine place!



My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Murray will pull this off. I wonder how it must feel to have lost statewide three times in 6 years?
[ Parent ]
Off topic but...
I think that the medal for best pollster of cycle goes to Suffolk, were much better than runner-up PPP, they only missed FL-GOV and that's it! Got CA-SEN CA-GOV CA-AG IL-GOV IL-SEN FL-SEN FL other races, CT-GOV CT-SEN NV-SEN! NV-GOV MA-GOV and other MA races right.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
On a related note, Meghan McCain SUCKS at predictions.
Maybe she got a little bit audacious?  She predicted that Angle, Crist, Whitman, and freaking O'Donnell would win.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/b...

She may be right on Murkowski winning, though.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

she just chose the woman in every race
except with the meek rubio crist race and there wasn't a woman there.  anyway, i wouldn't trust someone who talked about her sex life on colbert.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Political expertise is learned, not inherited
But McCain's predictions are so much more important than those made by average folks (like those on SSP!) because none of us have a parent that ran for President.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Look
dad! I can be a political strategist too!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
West coast is the best coast
Glad to see Washington is avoiding its 1994 fate of a six-seat loss. I actually wish some of the seats we lost this time had happened in Dem-friendly places like Washington so that they'd be easier to regain. Instead our losses seem clustered in places where they'll be hard to pick up again.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
Well, after this it's hard to see us going anywhere but up in the following states:
Florida - new redistricting process, the GOP is grossly overrepresented.

Texas - They'll have to cede us a couple of seats for VRA purposes.  If they're smart they'll make themselves safer by giving up 2 or 3 or lock in their gains.  

But one can always hope for a dummymander!

New York: Whether we lose 1 or 2 seats because of population, they will almost certainly both be GOP seats. cough NY-29 cough NY 24

Does anyone know what the situation will be like in CA now?
Also, in PA, MI, and OH there's not really much worse to do, unless the GOPers want to dummymander.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
Democrats control the process in IL
Last time they drew an incumbent protection map; that won't be the case this time, I think.
[ Parent ]
Non Partison re-districting commision
With last nights passage of prop 20 congressional districts will now be drawn by a non partisan commission.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
That was in CA, not IL


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
My bad
I misread the reply. The original post asked about California so I had that in my mind.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Yup
I hope they can find a way to squeeze out 4-6 new Democrats. We have to start building somewhere. . .
[ Parent ]
Exactly
The Dems played nice last time, save for NC and maybe MD.
Time to stop bringing swords to a gun fight, and gerrymander everything they can in sight.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
It depends on the state.
Don't gerrymander yourself to protect problem incumbent. Gerrymander to protect your party.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Dems need to be more proactive than that
Push fair redistricting laws like the CA/FL in every state held by the GOP: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Texas, etc. Make sure that those measures mandate mid-decade redistricting. Have the national party spend boatloads of money getting them passed, like they did in Florida.

My defense of extreme gerrymandering has always been that the other party will do it too and unilateral disarmament is for idiots. My dream is that both parties will force redistricting measures on the other side and we'll end up with fair redistricting in almost every state. A good result that comes about due to purely self-interested partisan motives.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Larsons lead up to 507 votes
Also over at least 615,000 votes still to be counted in Washington.

http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/W...

Good news is that it appears most are from Dem leaning areas.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

maybe 50k votes?
615k votes in WA-02 would be an outstanding vote for every person in the district...

Unless Everett and Bellingham are still partially out, I'm not sure that "democratic leaning areas" is correct.

[ Parent ]
615K statewide
Also Dem leaning areas (King county) referred to statewide.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Gosh, I sounded snippy
I apologize, user MinnesotaMike.
[ Parent ]
No problem. I could have made my post clearer.


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Well, judging by how the results are going, the areas left are Dem leaning
Both statewide and in WA-02.
Larsen went from a small deficit, to a very small lead, to a lead of a couple hundred votes.  I think he probably ends up winning 51-49 in the end.  Much closer than I thought it would be.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
Washington State . . .
How is redistricting done here?  By the legislature or by some good government commission?  

If the former, does Washington have a reputation for partisan gerrymandering?  If so, I would suspect the Dem-controlled legislature and Dem governor could easily pass a plan that easily flips WA-08 and/or WA-03 to the Dems in 2012.  

On a related note, how many seats could the Dem-controlled redistricting process in Illinois flip in 2012 -- without creating a Pennsylvania or Geogia style dummymander?  

Non-Partisan Commission in WA
Started with the 1990 redistricting, created several competitive districts which helps explain the wide swings in the 90s.  Last time, after 2000, I think they may have put too much stock in "incumbent protection."  As a result, much less volatility this decade.

A lot of course depends on the census and do we get a 10th seat.

[ Parent ]
Besides that
Even if Washington did redistrict via leg/Gov, its looking like the GOP may take the state Senate :(
[ Parent ]
Honestly, I'm going to have to differ on our voting system
I'm not willing to disenfrachise voters by trusting the postal system to deliver the votes on time of those unable to reach drop boxes. It's a sacrifice to our patience that I think is worth it for democracy. Besides, we get all the suspense!

Radical or something, WA-07
WA's dropbox system is severely lacking in King County
There was something like 10 for the whole county of nearly 2 million people.  There is a bit of weirdness in that a post office in Tukwila postmarks ballots until 11:59 PM on election day!

You could basically sit there watching results come in from all over the country (including WA!) and then be like, "Ok, time to vote".

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
Looks like Connolly will hang on in VA 11

Operatives from both parties said Wednesday they did not expect the canvassing, which includes the counting of provisional ballots, to change the margin very much between the two candidates.

If Connolly's lead remains at its current .4 percent, the state would pay for the recount.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Has Maffei pulled back ahead?
NYT and CNN show him leading by about 2.2k, with 96% reporting.
[ Parent ]
No, they're behind in the count

[ Parent ]
It was always virtually a given he'd hang on......
You don't reverse a margin that big in a recount, there aren't going to be enough mistakes going in one direction.

Perriello's win over Goode in 2008 went to recount, and Perriello's margin dropped only 23 votes from 745 to 723; both picked up votes in the recount process, as that's what's normally discovered, missed votes that should be counted.  But it's never THAT one-sided.

Connolly's lead now is up to 930 votes, Fimian will never be able to reverse that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
WA-09: AP Calls Race for Smith (D); WA-02: Larsen Takes First Lead | 35 comments

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