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CO-Sen: Denver Post Calls It For Bennet (And Other Updates)

by: Crisitunity

Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 1:38 PM EDT


• CO-Sen: This isn't an official call from the AP or CNN, but the Denver Post (who you would think would know their state well enough to know the score) has decided that Michael Bennet is the victor in Colorado. No couching, as their article is titled "Bennet Wins in Senate Race;" you can't lay it on the line any more than that. Their rationale: he leads by 7,000 votes with 30,000 remaining to be counted in dirty hippie stronghold Boulder County.

• WA-Sen: While the Seattle Times doesn't sound as fully confident as the Denver Post, they also make it sound like Patty Murray is on her way to reelection. Their rationale: more than one-third of the uncounted votes statewide are found in King County, which of course is the state's Democratic base and where she's getting 62% currently.

• WI-Sen?: Pundits (or at least William Kristol, known for his wishful thinking) seem to be taking the wrong message from this Russ Feingold line at the end of his concession speech last night: "It's on to our next adventure. It's on to 2012! Forward!" To them, that means that Feingold will be mounting a quixotic primary challenge to Barack Obama. Um, we're likely to see a Herb Kohl retirement in 2012. Maybe Feingold is likely to run for the other Wisconsin Senate seat? (Taking a page from Washington's Slade Gorton, who lost in 1986 and resurfaced in 1988. Any other Senators anyone out there can think of who did that?)

• MN-Gov: It must seem like Groundhog Day for Minnesotans, who are poised for another recount nightmare as the election lawyers descend like locusts. With only 19 precincts remaining to count, Mark Dayton's lead over Tom Emmer is 0.43%, which is below the 0.5% bar where an automatic recount is triggered.

• Polltopia: So is the cycle where bullshit finally gets called on Rasmussen? Nate Silver made the case last night, observing that of the 100 polls released in the final 21 days of the campaign, 70-75% overstated Republican support, off by an average 3-4 points. Taegan Goddard also chips in singling out its final HI-Sen poll, which was off by only 38 points on the final margin of victory for Dan Inouye.

• Trivia: Would you believe that the Democratic freshman class is only in the single digits? There are 9 freshmen: Terri Sewell (AL-07), Karen Bass (CA-33), John Carney (DE-AL), Frederica Wilson (FL-17), Colleen Hanabusa (HI-01), Cedric Richmond (LA-02), Bill Keating (MA-10), Hansen Clarke (MI-13), and David Cicilline (RI-01). Remarkably, only two of them are straight white guys!

• CA-11: This race has had some ups and downs today: The Stockton Record (the local, well, paper of record) was initially running a story stating that Jerry McNerney had won his race, after having trailed all of last night to David Harmer. They've pulled back on that, merely saying it's "too close to call," but the hard data is that McNerney now has a 121-vote lead over Harmer, with 100% of precincts reporting. I'd imagine this one will be heading for a recount!
Crisitunity :: CO-Sen: Denver Post Calls It For Bennet (And Other Updates)
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CO-Sen: Denver Post Calls It For Bennet (And Other Updates) | 250 comments
CT
Looks like Foley will be the winner now no?

29/D/Male/NY-01
How come?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
AP has New Haven votes, CNN doesn't
CNN has Malloy at +6000 in New Haven, but AP has him at +16000. That should do the trick, I think. Though it's still a bit close.

(http://news.bostonherald.com/news/national/northeast/view/20101103ex-stamford_mayor_malloy_elected_conn_governor/srvc=home&position=recent)

Twitter.com/Taniel

[ Parent ]
How about the size of the Senate D frshman class?
Manchin and Coons can get a table at Mortons.
Blumenthal

[ Parent ]
LA-02
Don't forget about Richmond.

20,male,NE-02,college and voting OH-15

Right, thanks

[ Parent ]
God, it would be great to get Feingold back.
Can we get David Obey and Steve Kagen back, too?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Is Oberstar interested in another crack at it?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
unlikely
Sertich is the heir apparent. And Oberstar lose his district while Dayton carried it. It wasn't the fact he was a Democrat, it was the fact that he had been in Washington too long

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure we should run Oberstar again.
Same for Kanjorski and some other long-time incumbents.  We should get these seats back, but new blood would be good.  Same goes for the underperforming Arcuri.  Some former incumbents that I would like to see give it another try would include Periello, Shea-Porter, Patrick Murphy, John Hall, etc.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Not Shea-Porter
She got pummeled by a guy with a lot of baggage. On the other hand, Kuster lost by just 1.6% so she may be likely to beat Bass in 2012.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
I agree.
I have no idea what the NH state senate looks like right now, but one of the many Democratic women there could give Guinta a race.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
If we can get another progressive like Shea-Porter, I'm fine with it.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
NH state senate bad for Ds
Republicans retook control of both houses, gaining 9 senate seats and 120 house seats.  governing has all of the statehouse results.

http://www.governing.com/blogs...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
I hope Lynch holds them off if he can
I heard they are veto proof? That will suck if it's true. I remember how extreme some of them were earlier in this decade, when they had control of the legislature.  
[ Parent ]
I'm most worried about NH gay marriage
A veto-proof margin means a veto-proof repeal of gay marriage. I only hope there's enough socially moderate Republicans in NH who realize that social backwardness isn't going to help them going forward (distant hope, I know).

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
I hope so too
Considering how far to the right Ayotte is, and she was elected in a romp, I wonder if NH voters are going back to rewarding extreme right wing types of Republicans, like Bob Smith or Craig Benson.

Ayotte opposes both gay marriage and gay adoption, so that might be a maintstream view for the NHGOP. Gay adoption was banned in NH up to about 12 years ago. I wonder if this is going to come up soon.

[ Parent ]
NH state senate
Dems were slaughtered. 19 repubs 5 dems now.
[ Parent ]
I was limiting my discussion to defeated incumbents.
But Kuster (or Hodes) should definitely go after Bass in 2012.  Among challengers, Ami Bera, Rob Miller, etc. sound promising.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Most of the losses of the seats of veteran Dems
were in districts which are not going back to the D column in the forseeable future. Or can you tell me who can win LA-3, MS-4, Fl-2, SC-5, NC-2, AR-1,2, TN-4,6,8, VA-9, TX-17, MO-4? Those seats are gone for a long time. Kanjorski is an exception.

22, Social Democrat, German Bundestag District 278 (Bruchsal-Schwetzingen)
[ Parent ]
NC-02 is also an exception.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Redistricting is coming though
The GOP took over both houses of the North Carolina legislature last night. They will draw an incumbent-protection compromise with Gov. Perdue, and will certainly look to shore up Ellmers' seat, giving extra protection to Kissell and McIntyre in exchange.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I'll take it and call it a victory
I don't know what kind of voodoo the NC House Dems pulled off to be mostly spared the carnage in the rest of the south, or even at the state leg level, but it worked. I cannot believe Kissell and Shuler survived, and any kind of protection plan that keeps them safe is good enough for now while the state Dems rebuild.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Yeah, NC was weird this year
Kissell theoretically should have lost, he's probably at the top of my list of unlikely survivors. Harold Johnson, Jeff Miller, and Iliaro Pantaro (the Republians in NC-08, 11, and 07) were all decent challengers in GOP-friendly districts against less-entrenched incumbents, and all lost, while Renee Ellmers, the weakest of the bunch with the toughest district and opponent, won.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Kissell has some weird counter-mojo
In the Dem landslide of '06, he comes heart-breakingly close to a win. In the reverse landslide, he pulls a Gerlach and hangs on when everyone else gets washed out to sea.

Again, the NC House Dems need to pass around their voodoo dolls to the rest of the caucus.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Illario Pantaro was not a "decent"
challenger. The guy is proud of torturing Iraqi detainees - that's disgusting.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
Those aren't the ones to try to get back.
But there are plenty that are very regainable: Patrick Murphy, Kanjorksi, Sestak's seat, both New Hampshire seats, Klein, Grayson's seat, Costa (if he doesn't pull it out), Ortiz (if he doesn't pull it out), Baird's seat, Adler, Nye, Perriello, Titus, Dalhkemper, Schauer, Etheridge, Oberstar, both Indiana seats, Kilroy, Boccieri, Driehus, Markey, Salazar, Larsen (if he doesn't pull it out).  All of those except Perriello, Markey, and Dahlkemper were Obama districts and those three exceptions were only narrow McCain districts.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Well, Lautenberg stepped down and then re-ran
and won.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
Kent Conrad retired
Then ran for the other seat.
Within the same year.
Seriously, luckiest SOB around.
[ Parent ]
Gordon Smith lost a special election for Senate,
then won a general election for the other seat in the same year.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08
[ Parent ]
(Reposted) Dems who have every right to party hard after last night.
Ben Chandler
Ed Perlmutter, who allegedly did a cartwheel (video please!?)
HARRY REID, who won with 50.2% of the vote
Shumlin, for smoking Dubie
Sanford Bishop, who won at the last minute
Michael Bennet
Linda Greenstein, for winning a NJ-St. Sen. special election and increasing our majority there by 1.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Holy crap
All the SSP FPers love a good pot-related joke, and somehow we all forgot to make any sort of crack last night or this morning about Shumlin smoking Dubie. Kudos to you, sir.

Unfortunately, though, MO-Sen is a Blunt smokes Carnahan story, instead of vice versa.

[ Parent ]
MO has a history of failed challengers coming back to win in the future.
Claire McCaskill
Jay Nixon
and I'm sure there's others, but I can't think of any

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Jim Talent, Kit Bond, Roy Blunt
Mel Carnahan, John Ashcroft, John Danforth, the list goes on to almost every major figure in recent Missouri history. Based on that track record, I wouldn't be too confident about anyone who actually wins their first election.

Granted, almost all of them lost close races first, while Carnahan got smoked by Blunt (never gets old) this time. I'm guessing despite that she's got a big future in Missouri politics.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
In Soviet Missouri, Blunt smokes you!


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
You win.
Also, thanks to you: http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pos...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Other partiers ...
Kind of lost in the shuffle, but the fact that the Dems held on to their NC US House majority, with only one loss in a year when Burr coasted to re-election and the Reps had an astonishingly good year in the state legislature (everyone knew they had a shot, but no one saw 31-19 and 67-53) seems to deserve some celebration.  Everyone thought Kissel was toast, but he actually had a pretty comfortable 9 point win despite the Reps preferred candidate, little attention from the national party, and his usual fundraising struggles.  Plus 8 point wins for both McIntyre and Shuler.

Almost everyone predicted a 3-4 seat loss in the event of a 60+ seat Rep wave, so the fact it didn't happen is a plus.  Not sure how much luck the Rep legislature will have gerrymandering any of the Dems away, either.

And everyone of every political persuasion should rejoice at the defeats of Angle and Buck!  It's one thing to have Senators with whom I disagree, another to have Senators who are flat out nuts!

[ Parent ]
They are doomed
Now facing a GOP gerrymander with no veto power for the governor. I doubt more than one will survive.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Cartwheels
[ Parent ]
Strom Thurmond
Won as a write-in candidate then resigned and ran in the election triggered by his resignation and won. But I don't think that's the same thing.
Phil Gramm did something similar too.


21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
Oregon legislature could be tied in both chambers.
If current results hold, the House will be tied 30-30 and the Senate will be deadlocked 15-15.  This may be the first time in history that this has happened in any state.

Before the election, Democrats had 3 seats to spare in the Senate and 6 in the House.

In the Senate, Democrats have already lost two seats, and could lose one more in Clackamas County. In Senate District 3, Sen. Alan Bates, D-Ashland, has lost to Republican challenger Dave Dotterrer. And in Senate District 26, Chuck Thomsen beat Democrat Brent Barton for the seat being vacated by Rick Metsger, D-Welches.

In Senate District 20, Sen. Martha Schrader was trailing Alan Olsen by 300 votes.  

In the House, Democrats look to have lost six seats. The race to watch here is House District 37 in Clackamas County, where Republican Julie Parrish leads Democrat Will Rasmussen by 500 votes. Outgoing Rep. Scott Bruun holds the seat, and Republicans need to keep it in order to tie the chamber.  

http://www.oregonlive.com/poli...

Link to results:
http://gov.oregonlive.com/elec...

When the Oregon State Senate was tied previously, they entered into a power-sharing agreement:

The three major decisions resolved last were:

* Which party would claim the presidency? Democrats won, since one of their own hadn't been president since they lost their majority in 1995. And they had the votes to block any Republican nominee nominee n. 1) a person or entity who is requested or named to act for another, such as an agent or trustee. 2) a potential successor to another's rights under a contract. .

* Which party would claim the co-chairmanship of the legislature's budget committee? Under the draft agreement, it would have gone to a Republican because the presidency went to a Democrat. But Clarno says Republicans concluded they wanted the three subcommittee chairmanships more-if the right Democrat became co-chairman.

* Which party would head each of 10 policy committees with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans as members? Republicans chose first and picked the judiciary committeeJudiciary Committee may refer to:
U.S. House Committee on the Judiciary
U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary
Democrats chose the committee assigned to overhaul Oregon's public pension system and reduce its unfunded liabilities. And so on, until the list was done.

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/...

I don't see anything about how they break ties.  It is interesting how many legislatures have an even number of members.  Just going to an odd number would avoid all of this.

CA-AG: Harris is on her way to a narrow victory.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I keep refreshing the Times' results page
That's the one race I care about at this point!
[ Parent ]
Harris has about a 22,000 vote lead as of the SoS site
    She looks good to win but isn't there yet. I know she has some more votes coming; late absentees (those carried into the polling places on Tuesday) include my mom's and my votes for Harris. If she makes it that's a clean sweep of the CA constitutional offices. On the other hand, the propositions were a mixed bag. I expected 19 to lose but I thought my favorite ballot measure, Prop 21 for state parks, would pass but it lost 42-58.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Always trust centauri
The last batch of precincts in Riverside Co. will have to go for Cooley by over 40% to catch her.  Countywide it's Cooley +19%.

I was right about the car tax, wasn't I?  ;)

[ Parent ]
THAT makes me very happy!......
I hope the chatter of her as a rising star is right, and she lives up to the hype!  I'd love to see her move up to Governor or U.S. Senate......and maybe one day the White House?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Cooley
Cooley declared victory in Bev Hills last night and quickly decamped.

I guess his folks read the tea leaves.

[ Parent ]
Are you sure about that?
I thought all the outstanding votes were in GOP territory...

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
I'm sure
I've been following this race with a linear projection all night.  She's up by 22,300 with approximately 50,000 votes outstanding, all in Riverside County (Cooley +19%).  She's got it.
[ Parent ]
I called her the comeback kid last night
And someone pointed out that Cooley had already been called the winner. Went to bed unhappy (and having a nightmare of Michelle Bachmann rounding up the gays in concentration camps, don't listen to "California Uber Alles" before bed) and woke up to see her pulling through! Where's that Colbert "Nailed It!" graphic?

Such a sweet win.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
In fact
I had a dream last night where Cooley had won with all the precincts in. I woke up shivering and eager to get to the results to see if Harris' lead was still there...and I was superrelieved to see that it was.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Weird election dreams
A few days ago I dreamed that Republicans were sweeping all the Democratic house seats in Canada, and taking out multiple house members in South Dakota, while the Democrats were winning big in Puerto Rico. Political boundaries are a little different in my subconscious map...

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Haha, sorry about that
but in the end it all worked out! :D

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Democratic sweep!
California is pretty much the only state where that's true, at least statewide (stupid Costa mucks it up for us).

I'm very very excited about this one. I don't care about his moderate credentials, Cooley is a grade-A douche because of his anti-gay Prop 8 stance. How nice to see the biggest CA "rising star" go down.

(It's still close though, hope I'm not jinxing it by celebrating now!)

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
New York Dems held better than I expected in non-House races
They might still lose the state Senate, but given the Siena polls over the past few weeks I expected larger GOP gains. Also, Dems won the AG and Comptroller races.

But things were brutal at the House level, obviously.  

Twitter.com/Taniel

[ Parent ]
Guess the NY Dems got a big wake-up call
during the 2009 local elections trainwreck. Same in Massachusetts, where despite the Coakley debacle (I'm gonna need a thesaurus for all the different ways to say "disaster") the Dems are doing far better than I was expecting.

Big fan of your Twitter feed, btw. Have you slept at all though?

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
MA was also a Dem sweep
Dems won all the statewide races, all the congressional districts, gained one seat in the State Senate (up to 36 - 4).

The GOP did gain a handful of seats in the State House, though not nearly enough to threaten the Dem supermajority.  (The new body will be something like 127-33 rather than 144-16.) They also picked up two seats (out of eight) on the Governor's council, one of which was contested by a pair of brothers each running for one of the major parties on identical platform.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
144-16?!
Wow, no way that was sustainable. Was that State Sen pickup Scott Brown's old seat?

And what is the Governor's Council? First time I've heard of that body.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
It was the retiring Sen. Tisei's seat (Baker's running mate).

[ Parent ]
Governor's Council
Funny you should ask that, let me repeat something I emailed to some of my friends during the primary:

The Governor's Council is one of our ancient institutions, predating independence, that used to be quite powerful but now is merely a final resting place for washed up hacks. Its sole responsibility is to approve judicial nominations, commutations, and pardons the Governor makes.  For this laborious task the councilors, each of whom represents one eighth of the State, receive the princely sum of $26,025 per year.


28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
I'm so happy my theory held true!
I was afraid of having to revise my belief that California has just become to Democratic for even a moderate Republican to win barring unusual circumstances. I am so relieved that now I don't have to.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Don't forget about Hawaii where Ds had a good night. n/t

[ Parent ]
Democrats swept RI too
SoS and governor was close, everything other federal/statewide office was a pretty clear Democratic win.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
*every other
can't type. ugh.

and yes, think of Chafee as a Democrat for all intents and purposes. he is basically a Democrat without the icky part of being attached to the party machine. He was even attacked for wanting to raise taxes...by Caprio and the DGA!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Time for the a guessing game?
Does anyone have an opinion if anybody who retired would have held the seat the vacated. I was thinking about Arkansas and Tennessee along with Elsworth and Melacnon to try and figure if they would have won reelection had they campaigned. Any ideas?

Dem-TX13-22-male

TX-13,22,Dem

I would guess
Meloncon would have lost, just because of the nature of his district. I don't think Arkansas would have made much difference with either race, neither would Tennessee. IN-8 is called the Bloody 8th for a reason, and Ellsworth probably wouldn't have won.

I would say there are a couple other people to look at. Evan Bayh could have won, he mad a MASSIVE war chest that would have scared off any serious challenger. David Obey and Bart Stupak come to mind. Given what happened, they wouldn't have been locks, but I do think they would have been at worst 50/50 shots to keep the seats. On the Republican side, Castle would have kept DE-AL for the Republican side had he chose not to pursue the senate.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
It kind of saddens me
But I think that Specter would have been as strong if not stronger than Sestak in the general. It would have only taken another point or 2. But that is pure speculation.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Base turnout would've been abysmal
with Specter at the top of the ticket. Republicans were not in the mood to vote for moderate Democrats this year when they could get conservative Republicans instead, so his crossover vote would've been limited. A Specter campaign might have cost us Altmire and Critz's seats as well, and the Revenge of the Dummymander would've been complete.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
PPP has him 9 behind Toomey
in a trial heat as part of its last poll.
[ Parent ]
WV01
I think Mollahan would have kept it if he didn't get (basically) tea-bagged.  Also WA-3 would have been likely D.  
[ Parent ]
and i think Hodes
Would have been a toss-up.  I don't see him doing WORSE than Kuster, even though she ran a great campaign.

Also IL-Sen if that pesky freshman hadn't retired in December of '08

[ Parent ]
Ditto.
Hodes would have won.  In fact, I don't think Bass would have run to begin with.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Hodes badly lost his district last night
Granted, Ayotte was a strong opponent and Bass may not have run if Hodes was in the race. But he may have gone the way of Shea-Porter even if he was running against a second-tier recruit.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Good question
Normally I would say it depends who might have run against them but considering some of the jokers that won last night maybe not.

Jim Matheson
Ben Chandler
Mike Ross
Jason Altmire
Heath Shuler
Tim Holden
Nick Rahall
Harry Mitchell
Mike McIntyre
Gabby Giffords
Joe Donnelly
Larry Kissell
Charlie Wilson
Bill Owens
Jerry McNerney
Melissa Bean
Mark Critz
Tim Walz
Tim Bishop

By my reckoning those are all that are left in R+ districts. Some barely won and a couple may yet lose.

[ Parent ]
Charlie Wilson and Harry Mitchell lost
Didn't delete them. Apologies.
[ Parent ]
Judging by the results in the rest of the state
Arkansas and Tennessee would have been just as bad if the incumbents had stayed in office. Ellsworth did pretty poorly in his district, he might've been in danger. And Melancon would probably have lost anyway.
[ Parent ]
Mine:
Hodes, Sestak, Obey, maybe Snyder, maybe Stupak.

Melancon would have lost.  Ellsworth might have hung on.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I wonder what would've been worse for Hodes and Ellsworth
To aim for higher office and lose big, or to stay in their seats and lose more narrowly. Either way they have the image of a big loser around them. I think going for higher office was better, because now they both have statewide name rec that could help them in a non-GOP wave year.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Baird, Hodes, Obey, Sestak
None of the folks you mentioned, with the possible exception of Ellsworth.  Definitely not Stupak.
[ Parent ]
Mike Castle
Delaware was a disaster this year for the GOP.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Comeback Senators
Minnesota's Hubert Humphrey served in the senate until LBJ picked for vice president. After losing the presidential race in 1968, he bounced back to win two more senate races in 1970 and 1976, before passing away in 1978.

29, Male, Dem, NY-20  
I just don't see Feingold
getting a free pass at that Senate seat. He will get primaried by Ron Kind who had been waiting forever for Kohl to retire. Also Paul Ryan may jump in and I think he would be Fiengod

TX-13,22,Dem
[ Parent ]
feingold is done
he won't run again
[ Parent ]
I agree (nt)
no text
[ Parent ]
a little help from this great community please
do any of you know where i can look up just the raw numbers from last nights election(no analysis needed, just names, district numbers, and vote totals)? thank you all
Maybe
But 6 isn't really what they were expecting this year. And Kirk and Toomey barely won at that.
[ Parent ]
Sorry
Wrong reply.

[ Parent ]
if you stay just on the election results page
CNN has good maps

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
thanks for the info
i see a lot of tossups nationwide(the 'wave' is in the eye of the beholder)a 2-4% shift to the democrats and we aren't losing the house last night(a pretty close race that could swing right back in two years time)
[ Parent ]
Current PVIs suggest
per Wikipedia, if accurate

If all the states (and in the case of the Presidency, the District of Columbia) voted exactly along the partisan lines prescribed by the PVIs below, and using the present districts and their respective PVIs, as of May 2010:

# the Senate would have a Republican majority, 54-46
# the House would have a Republican majority, 234-201 with 9 toss-ups (i.e., even PVI, but 234 seats is enough for a majority without the toss-ups)

link
[ Parent ]
We're really overperforming in the Senate
I imagine 2012 (Senate) is going to be ugly regardless of whether Obama wins or loses.
[ Parent ]
Maybe
But 6 isn't really what they were expecting this year. And Kirk and Toomey barely won at that.
[ Parent ]
Agree, and it's amazing people learn nothing from all this......
We were supposed to lose seats in 2006 based on the math and geography, but we beat 6 of 14 GOP incumbents running for reelection and took the Senate.

The 2008 cycle was supposed to be good for us all along, but no one thought we'd take 8 seats and scrape up against 60.

And 2010 was supposed to be a good year for us based on early retirements, but we lost 6......and that actually proved a good result because it easily could've been 9 or 10.

You'd think people would realize that "the math" in 2012 doesn't matter.  It's subordinate to the political climate and Presidential turnout by Democrats and the quality of the Republican Presidential nominee and campaign.

If we minimize our 2012 retirements, we quite easily could find ourselves with a net gain of a seat or two.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
well said

[ Parent ]
Don't agree
There's a big difference between 18D-15R and 23D-10R. Not to mention, Dems won't be running against an unpopular GWB and the Republican controlled Senate.
[ Parent ]
I think all sides should have learned their lesson
Since 2004 about predicting the future.
[ Parent ]
If it's a neutral environment, our incumbents win reelection so it doesn't matter......
Incumbents usually win.  They lose only if they're personally unpopular for whatever reasons, or if the political environment is hostile toward their party.

Take away a hostile environment, and our incumbents lose only if they get themselves personally in trouble.

The retirement question creates open questions, but there's no use speculating who will retire.  There are some obvious guesses, but they are nothing more than guesses.  I remember Marc Ambinder reporting not long after the 2008 election, more than once, that Chuck Grassley was likely to retire, and that was based on Ambinder's actual reporting work rather than mere speculation.  But Grassley, in his 70s already with a whopping 30 years in the Senate behind him, ran again.

Sure there are seats we'll lose out of those 23.  But there are seats out of the other 10 that we can win.  I'm willing to bet already that NV is a pickup.  And MA will be no worse than a tossup.

The Senate "math" has been trumped too many times in very recent history to rely on it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'll say this
No matter what happens, I'm pretty sure that Jeff Bingaman is going to be a retirement. At that point, there's going to be another all-out move to succeed him (and I could very easily see Teague try to win that seat, though Heinrich and Lujan are likely to run for that seat).

The Republican bench right now is pretty much Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry, Steve Pearce (ugh...) and Heather Wilson (Wilson worries me more than Berry does, iin all honesty, that woman does know how to run a strong campaign against the grain).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
We can always serve cat food
Why don't we take Pougnet's approach?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Why do you
think he retires. I have heard that alot but I don't see why he would. He seems to enjoy the Senate and he chairs a big committee  

TX-13,22,Dem
[ Parent ]
When user DGM announces his candidacy
Bingaman would be a fool to stand in his way ;)
[ Parent ]
:) n/t


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
His fundraising is pretty much nonexistent
And honestly, he doesn't like the Senate that much anymore, Schumer had to beg him to stay the last time. There are certainly lifers in the Senate, but Bingaman isn't one of them.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
This is exactly right
I distinctly remember Kos (who whatever else you think of him, is a pretty respectable analyst) predicting right after the spate of Republican retirements in 2009 that the Dems would pick up at least two or three seats this year, giving them close to a 2/3 majority. He expected Dems to give back some of that in 2012 and 2014.

DC's point is very valid - it's fun to speculate, but there's no way to really know this early. Certainly no one should think we are going to lose the Senate at this point.  

[ Parent ]
I agree.
I just hope the Democrats decide to start work early on finding the right candidates for every single race that isn't entirely lopsided--i.e. the Senate seats in Wyoming and Utah*. We'll certainly contest the seats in Massachusetts, Maine, and Nevada, but why not Arizona, Tennessee, and Texas as well? It's not necessarily easy to defeat any incumbent, but you can see what happened to candidates that took a nap this year. Figure out a candidate, figure out a coalition, and then run this person like he or she is ten points behind until election day, all the while going after the other guy and registering voters. Force them to spend money where they normally wouldn't.

*But hell, why not those, too? Find some state senator or anyone else who will try. Maybe lightning will strike and it'll be a real race.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Plus, Dems remain very good at protecting Senate incumbents.
Last night was no exception; only two incumbents lost (assuming Bennet and Murray hold on).
Count on a significant number of retirements, though. Some are quite old.

22, Social Democrat, German Bundestag District 278 (Bruchsal-Schwetzingen)
[ Parent ]
Bennet was declared the victor!


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
My Thoughts on Election Night
How shocked were you when the PA senate results came in? I was floored when Toomey was declared the winner with only 51% of the vote. If it hadn't of been for the deluge of negative ads against him, courtesy of Citizens United Sestak could have won. I remember hearing some political analyst say that PA is still a blue state and that Toomey would probably only win by low single digits, of course I did not believe that because of all the polls showing the exact opposite. Well much to my surprise, he was right and Toomey barely eeked out a win.

And on an unrelated note, I literally began screaming and jumping for joy when I saw that Harry Reid was ahead 51-44 with 71% reporting. When I saw that i knew he had won. I mean if a candidate is trailing by 6 points with over 70% of precincts reporting they pretty much are about to lose.

proud dem

[ Parent ]
CA-AD-05.
Looks like Richard Pan (D) has picked up this traditionally Republican seat in his open seat race against Andy Pugno (R), known to us as the guy who basically wrote Prop. 8 to hate on gay people.

So some good news there, looks like even in the red areas of Sacramento, they didn't appreciate Pugno's gay-bashing ways.

I think that was the only party change of control
   of any seat in the CA Legislature. We had hoped to pick up SD-12 in the Salinas area but it stayed GOP. We didn't lose any of our vulnerable Assembly incombents, not even Alyson Huber who won two years ago by 500 votes. If Jerry McNerney's 121 vote margin holds up then the only Democratic congresscritter we lost in CA was the blue doggish Jim Costa in the Central Valley.

   The initiative to add the congressional remap to the redistricting commission's responsibilities won overwhelmingly, so it is hard to say what will happen with our House delegation in the 2012 elections. I think that with better turnout in the presidential year we might be able to pick up some seats. We will be running against the "do nothing" Greedy Old Party House majority. Boner isn't going to be popular in CA as Speaker.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Boner seems more a Hastert type
Remember, Republicans ran for years against Pelosi and it only really paid off this year, eight years after taking charge of the House Dems. And she seems like a much more polarizing figure than Boehner (especially in the absence of a full-blown GOP-style campaign to demonize him).

That said, CA is growing steadily more and more liberal, so I'm hoping redistricting won't hurt us too badly.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
If I had to guess
It'll cost us Cardoza and Capps.  It'll cost them Lungren, Calvert, either McKeon or Dreier, and probably one more in Orange County.
[ Parent ]
Elaborate, please.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Here's how they lose
Cardoza's district should lose the tendrils into Fresno and Stockton and be left with just Merced and Stanislaus Counties - actually a bit less than that, they add up to 755K at about R+4.5 (h/t californianintexas for calculating PVI by county).  CA-18 is currently D+4, and a swing of 8.5% would probably have sunk him this year.

As Ellipsis pointed out, Capps might be all right in her old district of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties (670K at D+3.5) but she'd need at least another 30K to form a post-2010 CD.  My guess is it would come from the southern end of Monterey County, and I doubt that would help Capps much (the Salinas Valley is where the Dems are).  So I see this becoming a tossup district where she'd likely come up short some year.

Lungren's district should lose Alpine, Amador, and Calaveras counties, and that ought to sink him in a neutral or better year.  Major growth in Sacramento County means both CA-03 and CA-05 might be completely contained within the county limits in the new map.

Calvert can't win without southern Orange County, and there's no way the commission will allow him to keep it.  In the [majority] Riverside County portion of his district, he only won by 4% this year and LOST by 5% in 2008.

D-D-D-D-David Dreier's district blatantly picks and chooses Republican enclaves in the San Gabriel Valley.  He lives in San Dimas, so his "communities of interest" should include Azusa, the Covinas, and especially Pomona while excluding La Cañada (wtf?), San Marino, and especially the San Bernardino County portions of CA-26.  Fuhgeddaboutit!

Upon further reflection, McKeon should be okay, but Gallegly is probably in hot water.  Ventura County is D+1 and has more than enough population for its own CD, but D-leaning Oxnard and the City of Ventura are currently in Capps' district - the Santa Ynez Valley, over in Santa Barbara County, has been propping him up.

Gary Miller's district also has a serious communities-of-interest problem, so I expect he'll have to compete in a much different voter pool next time around.  Ironically, he probably would have been strengthened (and Ed Royce obliterated) in a Democratic gerrymander.

[ Parent ]
What about Wally Herger?
he keeps posting meh results in an under-the-radar district. Even in his current district, if the DCCC targets him he could be in trouble. What's going to happen to him in redistricting?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
CA-02 will be left almost as-is
The upper Sacramento Valley is a pretty cohesive community of interest, and changing the orientation of districts in the northern third of the state from north-south to east-west would piss a LOT of people off.  A coastal district, a valley district, and a mountain district make sense, though it'll be tricky to draw a mountain district that isn't dominated by Sacramento 'burbs in Placer and El Dorado Counties.

Herger seems to have become personally unpopular, but his district is rabidly conservative.  Conservative enough that it might let a pair of Republicans through the top-two primary if there's more than one Democratic candidate, and Herger would then likely lose in the GE.  I wish it were, but I don't think it's a promising investment for the DCCC - there's even a enormous billboard off I-5 in Glenn County emblazoned "Show Us The Birth Certificate."  

[ Parent ]
I saw such a sign off Highway 75 just north of Dallas!


My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
So maybe that user
who suggested Herger might be in trouble might have been right after all. Only it isn't enough to dislodge him because the district is purely red except for college town Chico.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Weed near Mt. Shasta too
...too bad it has all of like, 5 people.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Weed is awesome
I stopped there on my way to Crater Lake to take pictures of Mount Shasta and visit the Weed Store.

Siskiyou County and environs have an... interesting history.  The State of Jefferson movement has not been forgotten - to this day it still has a large contingent of crotchety would-be secessionists.

[ Parent ]
Jefferson is such a boring name
Call it like Bigfootland or something. Aren't those general areas where most Bigfoot sightings are concentrated? That's what I associate it with anyway. the elections nerd in me used to wonder if the growing Bigfoot vote would one day topple Wally Herger and John Doolittle.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Humboldt and Trinity in particular
It's funny you should mention Bigfoot, as on the same trip I visited a Bigfoot-themed museum in Willow Creek.  One of the featured books in its bookstore, Raincoast Sasquatch, was written by a guy I know in Alaska.  I also know another guy who claims to have seen the Kushtaka of Tlingit lore.
[ Parent ]
Capps might survive
if her new district looks anything like her '90s district. (SB and SLO counties I think?) Sure it'll be more conservative than what she's got now, but she's survived there before.

I don't see how Cardoza's seat survives in any way favorable to him (unless maybe it's a VRA district?).

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Hey, want to feel better if you're down?
Just look at this picture of Sharron Angle's "victory" party reacting to the early returns putting Reid well ahead and on his way to an outright win.

Or go to this link to see the full-size photo: http://plixi.com/photos/home/5...
(h/t: Dave Weigel)

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Aww
That makes me feel almost bad for them. Almost. Then I remember they were knowingly support a nut their own party leaders thought was too out-there, and feel happy about that one again.

But yeah, it sucks to be at a sure-thing victory party that turns into a big defeat. I remember everyone at the Kerry 2004 victory-based-on-exit-polls party becoming a very depressing affair.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Angle Fails
Angle winning was one of the happiest momemts of recent memory. she had such an entitlement about her that was just sickening. And this woman had the nerve to ban reporters from her "victory" party as punishment for asking her unscripted questions. Plus she sent Joy Behar flowers with a note, saying 'because of you we raised over $100,000 in a day." Well, who is laughing now bitch.

proud dem
[ Parent ]
Angle Falls sounds like a city name
My parents are diehard Republicans (despite being Hispanic immigrants) who had a good night last night, but they were celebrating the defeats of Angle and Tancredo with me, and were pissed off about Brewer and McCain's victory (even though they voted for him in '08).

If even people as conservative as they can't stomach the GOP's immigration policies, there's no way they'll make any real inroads among Hispanics in the near future, especially if Republicans use all their new statehouse power to push AZ-style laws everywhere (which they inevitably will).

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Tea Bag Logic
Tea baggers are not the smartest people in the world. They nominated Carl Paladino who only lost by 20-30 points or so. They nominated ken buck and christine o'donnell and I saw on daily kos that people at redstate.com are already targeting a list of republicans who they believe aren't republican enough. I mean how stupid can these people be? I wrote the senate off last year because i assumed that Gillibrand would lose as well as lose in Delaware. These people apparently do not believe in the theory that 1+1=2 because if they did they would realize that nominating the Buck's,  Angle's and O'Donnell's of the world cost them the senate. Yeah, Marco Rubio won but he won in a three person race and moderated his positions dramatically. Who knows what would have happened if Meek wasn't in the race ? And Rand Paul won in Red Kentucky so that is not that big of deal in my opinion.

The tea party may well save the senate for the Democrats again in 2012.

proud dem

[ Parent ]
I seem to remember
Bill Richardson saying that Democrats really didn't lose the Hispanic vote to Republicans last night. He quoted some statistics, but I forget what he was specifically referring to. If that is the case, then we must have lost some other group--in some cases pretty dramatically.

It's of little comfort now, when the wounds of being kicked in are still fresh, but a longer-term view means that the Democrats will keep mopping up the Hispanic vote. I can't see the Republicans being serious candidates at the national level if that continues to happen.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
National exit poll perhaps?
64-34 Dem. 68-29 two years ago.
[ Parent ]
For a moment
I thought I saw Angel Falls! (In Venezuela)

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
That's what I wrote
and what I thought the guy above me had written. My eyesight is piss-poor from staring at the tiny text on my laptop/iphone all the time...

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
I agree, although Joy went over-the-top
Angle sending flowers (supposedly from helping her raise money) made her look like a smartass instead of someone who ignores their critics.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Angle
I did think that Joy's comments were a bit extreme but that does not lesson Angle's sore winner mentality. She is the type of person who likes to rub it other people's faces that she won, she can't just accept victory with humility. Angle with a husband who is on Social Security yet rails against government spending is not a likeable person at all, in my opinion.

proud dem
[ Parent ]
I actually find it funny
when people do stuff like that. The creators of "Married with Children" supposedly sent some woman in Michigan flowers every Christmas after she made a big stink about their show and thus made it a hit because of all the attention she brought to to it. I wonder if Al Franken ever sent Bill O'Reilly a card for making Lying Liars a bestseller.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
MN-Gov
With all but 1 very small precinct (33 reg voters) Dayton leads by 8853 votes (.42%). Automatic recount territory but the margin is big enough that the final result won't change. There are no provisional ballots or outstanding absentees so this will be the final number.

One other small bit of good news, all the other statewide offices had their Democratic incumbents re-elected.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Thanks, just like I thought, Dayton has it. And I'm glad that...
...you guys got that one.  Sorry about the state leg, but really if you have to choose, I think the Governorship is a bigger prize.  Just like if I had to choose both chambers of Congress or the Presidency, I'll take a Democratic President in a heartbeat.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
If Pawlenty has taught us Minnesotans anything
it's that having the gubernatorial is all that matters.  That man got every piece of his agenda through the past four years while facing giant DFL majorities.

As for the recount, in 2008 the vote margin only shifted by roughly 1200 votes and Dayton's 9000 vote lead really isnt even worth doing a recount for.  But alas, this would be an excellent opportunity to scream "voter fraud", and the GOP chair has said they will be a lot more pro-active in doing this.  I dont know if I'll be able to read the paper anymore during that as if there is one issue where I think the GOP are the most deplorable, despicable, disgusting human beings it's when it comes to the made up theory that there is voter fraud in this country.  Hello!  People dont like to vote as is!

And yeah, the state legislature, ::sigh::  I honestly cant think of a single bigger shocker in the entire country than the DFL losing the state legislature.  Whatever, I always wanted to run for office, lots of juicy fucking targets.

[ Parent ]
Hopefully Dayton can be as crafty
I know he wasn't much of a senator but I'm hoping he will be able to get Minnesota through the crap the Republicans will be spewing over the next few years.  
[ Parent ]
and now I've gone through the numbers and here's what happened
Dayton unfortunately didnt add anything as a candidate compared to Mike Hatch four years ago.  It's pretty much the exact same map that Hatch got with a minor 40k vote addition to the DFL, mainly coming from the metro.  Although Im going through Edina and Minnetonka where the DFL had been trending very strongly over the decade rather than just 2006 and 2008.  Emmer kicked Dayton's ass here and it was because of the overly strong and miscalculated tax increase plan on the rich.  And the undecideds seem to have come down decisively in favor of the GOP here, as elsewhere in the country.

Independents threw everyone out of the office they pretty much just elected them into 2006, 2008, and then some long-timers no one saw coming.  The SoS website doesn't show the declared winners so this is how many DFLers are currently losing or lost: 25 state house and 16 senate.  And there are 134 members in the house and 67 in the senate.

Notables:  Tarryl Clark's state senate district was lost due probably to a lack of voter turn-out at St. Cloud State Univ.  She can run again in 2012 and win.  Terri Bonoff of MN-3 non-glory held on by 4%.  

And the GOP will drag this recount out for as long as possible because then Pawlenty will get to be governor still and with a GOP state legislature, they will pass a budget that guts everything and the big reason Dayton was going to be elected will be completely lost.  Could the GOP even do a redistricting map in this time?

[ Parent ]
After the canvass

if Dayton is certified, and I do think he will be, if they try to drag it out to keep Pawlenty in power beyond his term, there will be a Republican "Minnesota Massacre" (a la' 1978) in 2012.  

With 100% of precincts reporting, Dayton's lead is over 8800, far more then Coleman's lead over Franken in '08.  And as mentioned, this election will have much less error involved as absentee balloting has been revised since the last election.

And if you run for state legislature Andrew, let us know where to contribute!

[ Parent ]
Oh yes, the re-canvass
That netted Franken 700 votes last time.  If Dayton needs .07% to win, he needs about 1457 votes to based off the current number of votes.
[ Parent ]
That's not what I mean

in the re-canvass, we are likely to see the totals be much more stable then they were in '08 due to refinements Mark Ritchie put into place, especially in the absentee balloting process.  In '08, Coleman had a lead on Franken that was about 12 times smaller then Dayton's current lead on Emmer on the day after the election.  

That process had some sway back and forth based on absentee balloting that has been refined since the '08 recount, so I would expect even less sway this time around.  

[ Parent ]
Intrigued
The only precinct still out is one with just 33 registered voters? Are they snowed in?

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU
[ Parent ]
Either that

or its just that rural.  
[ Parent ]
DSCC declares victory for CO-Sen!


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Alvin Greene
He won nearly 30% of the vote in blood-red South Carolina! I say we run this fresh face again when Graham is up for reelection.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Drat
Not supposed to be a reply

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
I'm excited for ME-gov
Now Maine is going to learn why the shouldn't election Republicans to statewide office.

Surely the Tea Party will still have this type of influence in primary elections within the republican party.  If this is the case, Goodbye Snowe and Collins, hello next democratic senators from Maine.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Or it might be the opposite
Desperate, delusional politicians taking up major power sources in ME and not letting go, and getting enough voters to do the same. Look at how long Tim Pawlenty has held on in Minnesota.

I just hate to see that state in the grip of such far right and abrasive voices.

[ Parent ]
You are kidding me right?
NJ is regretting Christie, and Maine is going to regret Paul "Short Temper" LePage.  If anything, not electing a governor that is similar to the state ideologically hurts that party more than the other party having an effective governor.

I'm going to say right now, if Snowe is taken out in a primary from the right, a Dem will win that senate seat.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Who would this Democrat be?
There is no Democratic Bench in the state anymore. All statewide offices are appointed by the legislature. The main winner will be Kevin Raye, Snowe's desired successor and the new Senate President who gets to be a moderating influence on the new Governor.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Hoping LePage leads the charge against Snowe
and Collins, giving the Dems easy pickups in those seats. He seems crazy enough to do it.

LePage's low election numbers in a blue state suggest he and the state GOP is gonna have a very hard time maintaining positive approval numbers for very long.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
LePage is Charles Djou v2.0
He only won because of a split vote. If Mitchell had collapsed just a bit further it'd be Governor-elect Eliot Cutler.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Cell phone effect was clearly real
Most polls overestimated the GOP vote in Senate races, and the national popular vote more clearly reflected the findings of those who call landlines and cellphones and not just landlines.

Rasmussen was particularly bad - I think this election is going to hurt his outfits reputation a bit.

He missed NV, CO, PA, CA by quite a bit. To say nothing of that ridiculous Hawaii poll.

PPP also had some problems, which again I think can be explained by cell phones.

WA-07, 34 years old

Don't forget only FOX and Gallup
Had bigger generic ballot margins that Ras. His was almost double reality. Not that he probably cares. Unless it hurts his bottom line.
[ Parent ]
Ras
The best part of my otherwise depressing night was realizing that Ras called the wrong winner in OR-gov, NV- senate, WA-senate, CO-senate and greatly underestimated democratic wins in CA, NY and CO. Unfortunately, he did not call the wrong winner in FL-gov, which he correctly predicted Scott would win. Now when I ignore his polls, I can do it with some confidence. And what happened in the CO-gov race. Wasn't it supposed to be a nail-bitter in single digits for Hickenlooper ?

proud dem
[ Parent ]
OR-Gov
Is there actually enough out in Multnomah to put Kitzhaber over the top?
[ Parent ]
Yup
Based on the OR SOS numbers, there are about 213k votes counted from Multnomah Co.

In '06, there were about 260k votes cast

so there's about 50k to go....

Kitz is currently winning Multnomah by about 70/28.

[ Parent ]
Sounds like it is going to be very close.
Difference is about 11k now. http://gov.oregonlive.com/elec...
[ Parent ]
Yup -- and about 40k left to be counted in Multnomah
based on earlier assumptions --

If the 70/28 ratio holds, Kitz will gain about 16k votes from those remaining to be counted.

If I remember right, still recount territory, but beyond a realistic hope for Dudley -- if my assumptions hold up, of course.

[ Parent ]
Called for Kitzhaber at 5:00 pm on Wednesday n/t

[ Parent ]
Erick Erickson Announces Tea Party Hit List 2012
http://www.redstate.com/erick/...

Oh my god. Take all them out. Please. Especially Brown and Snowe

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

Hey
If they don't learn the lesson from Angle, Buck and O'Donnell then who are we to argue!
[ Parent ]
Even after Delaware, I honestly can't imagine MA Republicans taking out Scott Brown......
I think Delaware Republicans might have been a bit spoiled from HAVING their only Congressman a Republican, and having had a Republican Senator for so long in Bill Roth up until Carper beat him in 1998, so that they didn't realize how blue their state had become.

But MA Republicans KNOW they are the quintessential liberal state, held up by conservatives across the country along with California as an example of all that is wrong politically.  So I can't see them knocking out Brown, especially since Brown himself was the conservatives' hero not long ago.

Yes, I know, I said the same thing about Delaware in distinguishing it from Alaska, as everyone did.

But still, I have a hard time believing someone, somewhere, isn't sane in the Republican Party.

I contrast MA with ME, where the wingnuts WILL be emboldened by LePage's election and will lick their chops to take out Snowe.  And I hope they succeed.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Incidentally
Senator-Elect Chris Coons (D-DE). Sounds good right?
[ Parent ]
Love it. Almost as good as Majoirty Leader Harry Reid, STILL!!! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I cant believe I ever doubted that man
He know his shit and I may need to have more faith in him as Majority Leader.
[ Parent ]
Carper beat Roth in 2000.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
HHAAHAHAHHAAH LUGER?!?!
Jesus Christ.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Quote of the day?
"Both Angle and O'Donnell did rid us of some RINO's. They did their part in helping us clean our own house, and I will be forever grateful for that. There is no way I could ever say in good conscience that Castle or Lowden would have been better choices. We went with our principles and I am proud of that. Our movement must be about principles and not politics if we are to win in the long term."

LMFAO. They make the result just that little bit easier to take!

[ Parent ]
Indeed
I'm going to dedicate some time to reading through that.  And unlike them, I know what this election was about and it wasn't GOP principles, it was we weren't them.  I'm quite excited to see what happens with the Redstate crowd as, I mean, the GOP clearly have to govern with us.  This why they give us gridlock the entire time as they wanted to make it seem like nothing was happening, and now they come in to save the day.  In order for that to happen, they have to compromise.

Ive come to terms with the national stuff but I'm just really surprised there barely any survivors for the Minnesota state legislature.  The undecideds killed us and left Dayton just barely clutching onto that lead he had in the polls.

[ Parent ]
To Erickson, you ain't a Republican if you aren't a warmongerer.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I missed this first time around
"Wicker and Corker in particular make exciting prospects for the tea party movement."
[ Parent ]
Corker would deserve it
He's basically been nothing but a flunky for the GOP in spite of talk that he was a "moderate." The race-baiting ads against Harold Ford were the sign that "moderate" Corker need not apply. Yet he is still not right wing enough. Unless you act crazy then you are going to be disliked by the tea party groups.
[ Parent ]
I feel sort of bad for Corker
I get the impression that he would really like to be a moderate, except he knows that if he ever reached out to the Democrats his career in the GOP would be over. He seemed to make a real effort to work with Dems with the fin-reg bill, but never made it past the initial overtures because of his political fears.

Pretty sure the Teabags know he's not a true believer, which is why they're targeting him. He's got the worst of both worlds: he's too politically fearful to work with Democrats, but will be teabagged anyway just because he thought about maybe working with Dems once.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Eh
I feel about the same as I do about Alexander -- he chose to go into the Senate knowing he would be nothing. At least Corker doesn't have to wear flannel shirts to get attention.
[ Parent ]
but
Tennessee is one state where a relatively moderate Republican can still win a primary, as Haslam did this year.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Given Indiana's lurch away from the middle
It's possible that Lugar is vulnerable.

Going after him would be a dumb, and he wouldn't go down easily, but that's not stopped these people yet.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
He would pull a Murkowski/Lieberman somehow
And win I imagine. No Dem can beat him so it would be worth supporting Lugar. I think we all respect the guy.  
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be so sure, he's old and has been in the Senate a LOOOONG time......
If he loses a primary, he might follow Castle's example rather than Lieberman's or Murkowski's.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
That's the catch
Lugar is a very old incumbent and (also like Castle) he hasn't ran a competitive race in a long time. IN Dems didn't even run a candidate in 2006 against him. I don't know if he'd fight out a tough primary; if he loses, I'm even less sure that he'd try to make a go of it in the general.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
"would be a dumb"
My excuse is that I'm tired, alright. Hah.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I forgot he was on the CNN team last night until I saw him, then promptly switched to MSNBC......
I NEVER watch cable news anymore because the hirings of Glenn Beck and Erick Erickson by CNN and Pat Buchanan by MSNBC are fully discrediting.  But election night is different, I like the visuals and the reporting on results and exit polls.  But after seeing Erickson on there, no way I was keeping CNN on another minute.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I find Buchanan palatable to be honest
MSNBC is just as far left as Fox is to the right, but I find MSNBC brings more people from the other side in on their election night coverage.  I find Fox actually brings in more people from teh center than MSNBC during their nightly stuff.

I swear the first word out of the reporter's mouth on Countdown on MSNBC each night5 is "You're absolutely right Keith".  I don't think he's ever had someone on who disagrees with him in any way.  Like him or not O'Reilly will bring on a 5 year-old who has differing views and argue for a solid hour til the kid would cry.

I think Buchanan was pretty balanced heading into 2008 elections with his analysis and points and was for most of this cycle too (I don't have cable any more so I don't know about recently).

[ Parent ]
He was one of Hunter Thompson's best friends
that buys him some cred in my book.

And when I do listen to him, I think he'd be the kind of R who could survive here at SSP -- his political analyses are dispassionate.

[ Parent ]
Didn't he also
once praise Hitler for his political prowess? He should be buddies with Rich Iott.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I love
how there's really no particular reason to take these people on. Snowe, I could see, but is Hatch really not conservative enough? Has he really been cooperative with Democrats? And what about John Barasso?

Anyway, I wish them the best of luck in this regard. After last night's massacre, I'm eager to grab whatever I can from these guys. If we face Teabaggers in Maine, Massachusetts, and Nevada, picking up those seats should be a helluva lot easier, at minimum.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
They've never liked Hatch
I think it's because sometimes he acts friendly towards Democrats, and he doesn't talk the far right up enough, evne if he votes with them.
[ Parent ]
His crime against the conservative movement
is that he is not a jackass toward the other side.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
And cos he was great pals with Teddy.

[ Parent ]
I think it's because Hatch has criticized the purism of the tea party.
Also, Hatch is one of the original co-sponsors of the DREAM Act.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Hatch also said, in 2009, that Pat Toomey can't win in Pennsylvania. Serously. So...
...you can imagine that's one more thing the teabaggers will use against him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
DavidNYC said it best......
It's important to remember that to remain a member in good standing of the conservative movement, it isn't enough just to vote a certain way. You have to evidence a very particular tribal belonging - you need to hate the right people, be ignorant of the right facts, be fearful of the right bogeymen, and be arrogant about the whole enterprise. If you somehow fail this tribal litmus test, it doesn't matter how right-wing you are - that's how, for example, a wildly conservative guy like former Rep. Chris Cannon could lose a primary to another wildly conservative maniac.


43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Oh God, Please run for senate in Wyoming Dave Freudenthal
If there is even a CHANCE that Brasso gets Teabagged, I want to have a credible candidate running for senate.  I mean, Christ, he won 70% of the vote in 2006, he would be a GREAT catch.  Even, as I would assume, if his politics are screwy, it would build up the democratic party in what is essentially a one party state.

RUN FREUDENTHAL RUN!!!

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Party of one
Kind of like Matheson in Utah and Minnick in Idaho (should not have been surprised at that loss, but I fooled myself into thinking he could survive. Maybe if Labrador pulls a Sali then Minnick can come back in two years?).

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Take a look
at the link below. It's a bit sparse, but while there are a few things I don't really like, such as his stance on gay marriage, but he also opposes Social Security privatization and supports federal funding for health care. That last one alone is probably reason enough to support him. It's Wyoming, after all, and not Connecticut, so we don't get to be picky.

What's the chance of him signing up to be the candidate even if there's no Teabagger in the race? Could he beat Barrasso?  

http://www.ontheissues.org/Dav...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Honestly, just the prospect of a democratic senator from Wyoming is good enough for me
This is Wyoming, not Vermont.  We should take what we can get, and this is why I try to give people like Minnick and Earl Pomeroy a break, you have to look at the state and the area they represent.  It helps build out party regardless of stance on issues.  Look at WV, conservative place, yet we have a strong democratic party (and newly elected Joe Manchin).  If we could do that nation wide, the democratic party as a whole will benefit.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
I agree entirely.
There comes a point when a Democrat really isn't a Democrat and shouldn't receive the party's support. But Freudenthal isn't even remotely close to that point, as far as I can tell.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
CO-SEN - My favorite thing last night
was seeing Bennet win.  As I turned on CNN about 5:30 ET, one of their reporters was talking about conversations with both candidates.  Bennet's sum and substance was that he was going to bust his ass campaigning until the very last second.  Buck's was that he was going to work on his victory speech.  Real silver lining in a bad night.

I was once part of the chorus that criticized the Bennet selection.  Boy was I wrong.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Pence in IN-Gov
http://www.wane.com/dpp/news/p...

Would serve Bayh right.

I'll still root for Bayh. Our Indiana Democrats deserve...
...better than Pence, and Bayh, for all his dated DLC nonsense and rhetoric, is far better than Pence.

It's a conservative state, it's only once in a blue moon they'll vote for someone as liberal as Barack Obama.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Agree

[ Parent ]
Damn! Damn! Damn!
Going to be a hard choice if Bayh's our nominee. Then again, ol' Evan might not run now that it looks like it looks like the Republicans aren't going to just let him have a coronation as the once and future King of Indiana.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I'm thinking the same
Not exactly a profile in courage is he. Certainly would be a clash of the titans mind.
[ Parent ]
It depends on the cycle's lean
But I would give Bayh a slight advantage over Pence. I think he has something of a Jerry Brown factor going for him, he can run on his record in the 1990s, how he cut taxes, cleaned up the budget, etc.

Pence would have to try to outflank him on the right, which could be difficult. The other big problem for Pence is that he, while having many strengths, isn't a Mitch Daniels type that can sort of frame himself as a dispassionate technocrat. Pence is too closely aligned with the spectrum of social righties to pull that off.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Incidentally
Senator-Elect Chris Coons (D-DE). Sounds good right?
[ Parent ]
Argh done it again
Wrong reply. Sorry.
[ Parent ]
I'll
vote Bayh. He's a dick but he wasn't a horrible Governor. Also I don't know if you've heard but we got CRUSHED in Harrison County. The worst election we have ever had. We lost ever race but three. Robertson, Gilley Simpson and Dennis freaking Byrd all lost. Dennis Byrd, one of the best prosecuting Attorneys in the state of Indiana loses to a 25 year old who has almost literally no experience at all. It's so strange, everyone I talked to said they where voting for him but Shalk ran the most disgusting campaign I have ever seen. He did everything he could to smear him, tying him to Deatrick even though he is one of Deatrick's biggest foes and accused him of some horrible things. I guess a lot of people voted straight R. Byrd is the best public official I know and he lost simply because of the D by his name. Our county Treasurer barely beat a former substitute lunch lady with NO qualifications for the job. State Senator Young barely survived against someone who has barely campaigned, I was also told his opponent had BO, no joke. Plus Hill, Ellsworth and Vop went down. I'm still hung over.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I really dislike Bayh
I wouldn't vote for Pence, but I'd be hesitating when I'm looking at the governor's box on the ballot, that's for sure.

I figured Harrison would be in bad shape after seeing the state legislature numbers last night; seeing Richard Young barely hold on was just a huge shock. Robertson going down too... he's been in the state house for ages and ages, I really did expect him to hold on against a joke like Rhonda Rhodes. Needless to say, we lost the open seat race in my house district, it wasn't even close. Steve Davisson (whose campaign sent me one of the most disgusting mailers of the cycle) is going to Indy.

I've not been able to find any numbers on the local races in Crawford; the only thing that worries me is that it seems possible our incumbent prosecutor, the eminently qualified Cheryl Hillenburg, may have also lost.    

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Update
We did alright here. Dems lost a county commissioner and one of the seats on the county council, but we won the auditor's and clerk's races and held on to the prosecutor's office.

Hill, FWIW, did a lot better in Crawford than he did in Harrison, so that probably helped out.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Good,
glad to hear. We had a long time Commissioner lose as well, Terry Miller, he's been in since 98. I understand if people like Mathis where voted out, they where Deatrick lackeys but Miller tried his hardest early on to get Deatrick out, he didn't deserve to lose. Also my city council woman lost. Funny, we used to be a very D county.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I
really wish that local offices where non partisan. I mean throwing out a superb public servant just because of the D by his name? Disgusting. And why does party affiliation matter for Coroner or judges? No one expected Byrd to lose either. I counted and for every Shalk sign I saw 5 Byrd signs. The Byrd signs where in Republican areas as well. A lot of people had signs for Seelye, Young (Congress), Rhodes and Byrd. I thought everyone loved him. I have never been more shocked. But Shalk ran a truly disgusting campaign and Byrd refused to go negative and it cost him. We now have a completely unqualified prosecutor, I'm just hoping he doesn't fuck it up too badly.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
They ought to be, I agree
I'll bet a lot of the folks that lost in Harrison and Crawford (and probably other counties) would've been fine if not for straight ticket voting. Hill getting destroyed virtually everywhere outside of Bloomington took untold numbers of local officials down with him.

I've ranted about party affiliation for local office holders before; I guess there's differences in how a Democratic Coroner or Surveyor approaches their duties as opposed to a Republican, right? The only local offices that probably should be partisan are things like town councils, county commissioners, etc. The other ones, which are basically civil service positions, ought to be left alone.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
By the way, did you see the county-by-county breakdown in the Senate race?
I was talking to IndianaProgressive about it early this morning, it's really weird. Ellsworth did strongly in Marion County, won Bloomington and most of the Lake counties in the northwest, but got destroyed almost everywhere else.

He won like three counties in the Eighth District, and didn't even win Vanderburgh, where he was sheriff. I have no idea how he managed to win Marion by double digits and lose Vanderburgh at the same time.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
No
I haven't looked yet. Ellsworth lost Vanderburgh county but won Marion? WTF? Had we won Vanderburgh along with some more areas in his CD and Marion he probably would have closed the gap immensely. Did he not campaign hard enough in his home area because he thought he was safe there? Did he get more coverage of his HCR vote? I thought Ellsworth was beloved there. Well this probably proves he would have lost regardless. This also rules out a comeback for Congress, shit.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I would have thought Coats would have at least tied Ellsworth in Marion
That's even more confusing to me than Ellsworth losing Vanderburgh. He just crushed Coats in Indy, it doesn't make any sense at all, considering I expected the map to be pretty similar to Daniels v. Long Thompson in 2008.

This is actually really disappointing to have found out because it seems to me that Ellsworth could have won if he had just prevented getting blown out in the Eighth and Ninth. He seems to have somehow solidly locked down the main Dem vote centers even though his campaign sucked.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I
remember back in the summer when I was seeing NO ads whatsoever IndianaProgressive was talking about how s/he had seen a lot of ads for Ellsworth. I guess he focused his attention there. I don't know where Coats focused his attention on, I only saw my first Coat's ad for him last week and did not see signs up until two weeks ago. He couldn't have campaigned hard in Marion only to lose it by that amount.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Best
the GOP can hope for. I did think he would fool himself into running for Prez. So who gets Majority Whip now? I heard them talking about Michelle Bachman on CNN last night.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
no
Bachmann is the epitome of a loose cannon. I can't see her going around methodically rounding up votes, talking to members one at a time.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
It's not whip, it's GOP Conference Chair, lower level and...
...OK for a wingnut to occupy, except that I doubt they'll let Bachmann have it because they don't want to front their craziest people.

Bachmann is a camara hog already, and that didn't hurt them while they were powerless and she was a mere backbencher, but the LAST thing they want is to introduce a new GOP House to America with crazy fucking Michelle Bachmann as one of their fronts.

If they do give it to her, they really are surrendering unconditionally to their party's worst elements, and will have taken Step One toward giving us the majority right back in 2012.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Pete Sessions or Kevin McCarthy
Bachmann is going to supposedly run for Conference Chair to replace Pence. McCarthy, as Deputy Minority Whip, is the natural pick to move up to Majority Whip, but Sessions is considering running for that as well. Personally, I'd like to see Sessions back for another term at the NRCC.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Good!
I hate hearing all the crazy shit he says all the time.  
[ Parent ]
100% reporting in California
And Kamala Harris leads by 15,000 votes in the AG race!

What are recount provisions here?

Twitter.com/Taniel

CA-11
There are thousands of absentee and provisional ballots to be counted, and nobody knows how many because the district has little pieces of several counties and the ballots within the counties are not sorted by district.  I expect counting not to finish until at least Friday.  Then we will enter re-count land.  

Holding my breath for Jerry.    

What seats have yet to be declared?
Sen, Gov, and House?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
Re:
Senate:  Washington (which Murray almost certainly will win)

Governor:  Minnesota, Oregon and Illinois

House:  KY 6, AZ 7, AZ 8, WA 9, VA 11, NY 25, CA 11, IL 8, WA 2, CA 20.  Dems now leading in 7 of these.

[ Parent ]
WA 9 called for Smith and OR Gov called for Kitzhaber
as reported of KING, KOMO and KPTV. The last addition of votes at 4:30 promted the calls.

WA 2 is still too close to call but Larsen has pulled into the lead and is likely to extend it since the majority of the outstanding votes in the race are now from King Co. The Island and Snohomish votes are already in.

[ Parent ]
NY State Sen moving away from the Dems?
Of the three tossups, the Dem leads narrowly in SD-60 and the Rep leads narrowly in SD-07. The tiebreaker is SD-37 but a tiny Dem lead has turned into a 52-48 GOP lead with 19% of the vote remaining. That tiny seat could hold the future of upstate NY Democrats in its hands...

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
Marriage equality is dead in NY for 2+ more years
and redistricting might be bad for us. If the GOP has a say in redistricting, winning seats back upstate could be a problem.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It's dead for 2 years even if Dems hold the State Senate
Remember that a bunch of Dems jumped ship to support the GOP in voting down marriage equality last year. I've been pinning all my hopes on Dem-controlled redistricting finally allowing a naturally large Dem majority to take hold and pass that fucking bill.

Still 19 percent left in one senate seat. Hope springs eternal, and as the tossups seem to be going our way (McNerney, Harris, Larsen, Murray, Maffei, Malloy) maybe this one will continue the trend...

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I know.
Even if Oppenheimer wins, I think we've broke even at best. Two marriage equality opponents (Stachowski near Buffalo, Padavan in Queens) went down to pro-equality candidates, but we also lost the two Long Island Dems (Craig Johnson/Brian Foley). Even if Oppenheimer pulls it out, I think we're still 7 votes short (since the last vote failed by 8 and since then anti-gay Hiram Monserrate was replaced by pro-equality Jose Peralta).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
CNN calls it for Bennet

Looking at the exit polls
Buck's misogyny did him in. Men and women were equally represented and while Buck won men 54-40, he lost women 56-39. As a matter of fact, he lost white women 51-44.

[ Parent ]
Hooray for misogyny!
Wait, no, that came out wrong. Hooray for idiot teabaggers! How did we do downstate in Colorado? It seems like one of the bright spots on the map (House losses notwithstanding).

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Just had a thought
The open seat fiasco from the early days of the administration - IL, DE, NY, CO. Held them all in the end except for the presidents own seat!
[ Parent ]
Sure would've been nice to have a better candidate in IL
Quinn outperformed Alexi. I didn't see that coming.
[ Parent ]
Illinois is the one major recruiting failure
for the Senate Democrats this cycle in the seats that ultimately ended up contending (in retrospect now, all the fuss over Obama picking Napolitano and Sebelius was pointless; neither would have won in this atmosphere), and even then he had a reasonably prominent office and fundraising.  AG Whatshername would have held this easily.
[ Parent ]
AP also calls it for Bennet
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/s...

Teabaggers cost Republicans three senate seats.

[ Parent ]
YES!!!!!
This is HUGE. I think Bennet has a real future. He is one of my favorite Senators. I did not think he would win but he proved me wrong. Apparently Governor Ritter made the right choice after all.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Bennet had the advantage of being an outsider...
...instead of a "career politician" like a congressman would.
[ Parent ]
Romanoff
He would have lost due to the fact that he was running out of money fast near the primary.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm
so happy my ballot is turning out wrong. Turns out an "optimists" is going to be the winner of babka. I'm happy. I was so wrong with Nevada. Adleft, you are the BEST as is Ralston. The polls are wrong theory sounded lame to us out of staters but it was VERY right and I am SOOOO happy about it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Full of shit Scotty

Heading into Election Day 2010, Rasmussen Reports polling showed a huge lead for Republicans on the Generic Congressional Ballot that accurately projected the historic gains of more than 60 seats in the House of Representatives.

Doesn't mention that his 12 point final generic was 5 points off.  

Speaking of which, has anyone heard from Frank Newport?

Is
Pat Quinn going to win? What about Melissa Bean?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Given what remains...
It would be a big surprise if Bill Brady manages to find 12,000 votes somewhere...

Bean has closed the gap to 550 votes; she could close a bit more still. And this article suggests she could still pull ahead once absentees are counted: http://www.journal-topics.com/...

Twitter.com/Taniel

[ Parent ]
CO-Sen: Denver Post Calls It For Bennet (And Other Updates) | 250 comments

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