Google Ads


Site Stats

Monday Poll Dump

by: Crisitunity

Mon Nov 01, 2010 at 3:08 PM EDT


Get ready for the mother of all poll dumps:

• AK-Sen, Gov PPP:  Joe Miller (R) 37%, Scott McAdams (D) 30%, Lisa Murkowski (WI) 30%; Sean Parnell (R-inc) 54%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 43%

• AR-Gov Rasmussen: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 60%, Jim Keet (R) 38%

• AR-Sen Rasmussen: John Boozman (R) 55%, Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 36%

• AZ-Gov Rasmussen: Jan Brewer (R-inc) 53%, Terry Goddard (D) 39%

• CA-Sen, Gov PPP: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 50%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%

• CA-Sen, Gov SurveyUSA: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 46%, Carly Fiorina (R) 38%; Jerry Brown (D) 48%, Meg Whitman (D) 37%

• CA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (D) 41%

• CO-Sen Marist: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%

• CO-Sen, Gov PPP: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 48%, Tom Tancredo (C) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 8%

• CO-Sen, Gov YouGov: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 49%, Ken Buck (R) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Tom Tancredo (C) 40%, Dan Maes (R) 9%

• CT-Sen, Gov PPP: Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Tom Foley (R) 49%, Dan Malloy (D) 47%

• CT-Sen, Gov Qpac: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 44%; Tom Foley (R) 48%, Dan Malloy (D) 45%

• CT-Sen Rasmussen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 46%

• CT-Gov Rasmussen : Tom Foley (D) 48%, Dan Malloy (R) 46%

• CT-Sen, Gov YouGov: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Dan Malloy (D) 48%, Tom Foley (R) 44%

• FL-Gov, Sen PPP: Alex Sink (D) 48%, Rick Scott (R) 47%; Marco Rubio (R) 47%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 21%

• FL-Gov, Sen Quinnipiac: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 43%; Marco Rubio (R) 45%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 18%

• FL-Sen Rasmussen: Marco Rubio (R) 50%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 16%

• FL-Gov, Sen Susquehanna for Sunshine St. News: Alex Sink (D) 49%, Rick Scott (R) 46%; Marco Rubio (R) 48%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 20%

• FL-Gov Univ. of S. Florida for NYT: Rick Scott (R) 44%, Alex Sink (D) 39%

• FL-Gov, Sen YouGov: Alex Sink (D) 45%, Rick Scott (R) 45%; Marco Rubio (R) 46%, Charlie Crist (I) 34%, Kendrick Meek (D) 15%

• GA-Gov Mason-Dixon: Nathan Deal (R) 47%, Roy Barnes (D) 40%, John Monds (L) 6%

• IA-Sen, Gov Selzer for Des Moines Register: Terry Branstad (R) 50%, Chet Culver (D-inc) 38%; Charles Grassley (R) 61%, Roxanne Conlin (D) 30%

• IL-Sen Anzalone-Liszt for DSCC: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 39%, Mark Kirk (R) 37%

• IL-Sen, Gov PPP: Mark Kirk (R) 46%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%; Bill Brady (R) 45%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

• IL-Sen, Gov YouGov: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 47%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%; Bill Brady (R) 47%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

• KY-Sen PPP: Rand Paul (R) 55%, Jack Conway (D) 40%

• KY-Sen YouGov: Rand Paul (R) 52%, Jack Conway (D) 44%

• MA-Gov WNEC: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 42%, Charlie Baker (R) 37%, Tim Cahill (I) 11%

• ME-Gov MPRC for Down East: Paul LePage (R) 39%, Eliot Cutler (I) 29%, Libby Mitchell (D) 24%

• ME-01 Critical Insights for Maine Today Media: Dean Scontras (R) 45%, Chellie Pingree (D-inc) 41%

• MN-Gov PPP: Mark Dayton (D) 43%, Tom Emmer (R) 40%, Tom Horner (I) 15%

• MO-Sen YouGov: Roy Blunt (R) 54%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%

• NH-Sen, Gov PPP: Kelly Ayotte (R) 56%, Paul Hodes (D) 41%; John Lynch (D-inc) 53%, John Stephen (R) 44%

• NH-Gov Rasmussen: John Lynch (D-inc) 51%, John Stephen (R) 45%

• NH-01, 02 UNH: Frank Guinta (R) 46%, Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc) 39%; Ann McLane Kuster (D) 43%, Charlie Bass (R) 40%

• NM-Gov ABQ Journal: Susana Martinez (R) 52%, Diane Denish (D) 42%

• NV-Gov Mason-Dixon: Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 35%

• NV-03 Mason Dixon: Joe Heck (R) 53%, Dina Titus (D-inc) 43%

• NV-Sen, Gov PPP: Sharron Angle (R) 47%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%, Scott Ashjian (T) 3%; Brian Sandoval (R) 55%, Rory Reid (D) 44%

• NV-Sen, Gov YouGov: Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%; Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 40%

• NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov Siena: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 37%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 64%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

• NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov SurveyUSA: Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 56%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 36%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 62%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

• NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov YouGov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 56%, Carl Paladino (R) 29%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 58%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 34%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 60%, Jay Townsend (R) 34%

• OH-Sen, Gov Columbus Dispatch (mail-in): John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 47%; Rob Portman (R)56%, Lee Fisher (D) 40%

• OH-Sen, Gov PPP: John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

• OH-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: John Kasich (R) 47%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 46%; Rob Portman (R) 56%, Lee Fisher (D) 37%

• OH-Sen Rasmussen: Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 33%

• OH-Sen, Gov Univ. of Cincinnati: John Kasich (R) 52%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 60%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

• OH-Sen, Gov YouGov: John Kasich (R) 48%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%; Rob Portman (R) 52%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

• PA-Sen Marist: Pat Toomey (R) 52%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%

• PA-Sen, Gov Muhlenberg: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

• PA-Sen, Gov PPP: Pat Toomey (R) 51%, Joe Sestak (D) 46%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 45%

• PA-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: Pat Toomey (R) 50%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

• PA-Gov Rasmussen: Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 43%

• PA-Sen, Gov Susquehanna for Tribune-Review: Pat Toomey (R) 46%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 48%, Dan Onorato (D) 41%

• PA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 51%, Dan Onorato (D) 40%

• UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Mason-Dixon: Gary Herbert (R-inc) 59%, Peter Coroon (D) 32%; Mike Lee (R) 48%, Sam Granato (D) 32%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 48%, Morgan Philpot (R) 35%

• UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Dan Jones (for Deseret News): Gary Herbert (R-inc) 63%, Peter Coroon (D) 29%; Mike Lee (R) 57%, Sam Granato (D) 30%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 51%, Morgan Philpot (R) 39%

• VA-05 POS for Robert Hurt: Robert Hurt (R) 45%, Tom Perriello (D) 42%

• VT-Gov Rasmussen: Peter Shumlin (D) 50%, Brian Dubie (R) 45%

• WA-Sen Fox/Pulse: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• WA-Sen Marist: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

• WA-Sen PPP: Dino Rossi (R) 50%, Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%

• WA-Sen YouGov: Patty Murray (D-inc) 50%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• WI-Sen Marist: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 45%

• WI-Sen, Gov YouGov: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%; Scott Walker (R) 53%, Tom Barrett (D) 43%

• WV-Sen PPP: Joe Manchin (D) 51%, John Raese (R) 46%

• WV-Sen Rasmussen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 46%
Crisitunity :: Monday Poll Dump
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Monday Poll Dump | 332 comments
Epic poll dump but...
...system overload to my brain
Cristunity, your fingers must be numb after having linked all of that
Go Linda McMahon!

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
?
Go Linda McMahon!  

Am I missing something?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
VA-5
I'm still surprised it's that close. I wonder if it will be a 1-2% victory either way.
The link
paints a depressing picture for Perriello--it says, among other things, that there will be no election day boost from blacks, and he's losing whites in the Charlottesville market, which he supposedly needs to win--but then again, it was a poll of only 400 voters with a 4.9 margin of error.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Dude, don't get sucked in, it's a polling memo by Hurt's own pollster!......
The polling memo is SPIN, not reality.

Reality is that they throw together a poll that can't give Hurt more than a 3-point lead with a 4.9% margin of error in a GOP wave election against a guy who was supposed to be dead in the water from the moment his 2008 victory was certified.

Now, I do think Hurt likely wins.  He's been up all along.

But don't get sucked into POS spin.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Ahh,
I didn't realize that.

Anyway, I agree with you that Perriello's seat should have been locked up a long time ago, to the point where Hurt should be cruising to victory. Do you think that he isn't crushing Perriello, even if he ends up winning, means that the alleged tsunami could very well be just a big wave, but not that big of a wave?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
In any wave,
there are usually a few candidates who had been written off and unexpectedly end up surviving. Perriello could be one of those. So I'm not sure the tightness of this race (necessarily) reveals all that much about the size of the wave. But we shall see!
[ Parent ]
Perriello in particular says NOTHING about the wave......
He was counted dead the day his 2008 win was certified.  And that might prove accurate.

He had Obama visit for him 3 days out. and that suggests a peculiar ability to survive this wave.  And that might prove accurate.

Really, either scenario means don't assume anything about anywhere else.  We could lose 40 and Perriello goes down, or we could lose 60 and Perriello survives.  That's true for scores of Democratic incumbents, but it's moreso for Perriello than almost anyone else.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I wonder if he'll have an Administration gig...
if he does lose tomorrow. Maybe something in the State Department, however if he wants to go back into Congress he'd need something domestic.  
[ Parent ]
Who
are the most likely cabinet secretaries to leave early? I think he deserves a full fledged cabinet spot. Commerce would be good. Is he a lawyer? Obama still hasn't named a new SG yet.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Yale law


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
SG.
It's perfect. Perhaps a future AG or maybe even (I'm dreaming) SCOTUS. There we go.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
This is why I think VA-5 is the hardest race to judge
Reality is that they throw together a poll that can't give Hurt more than a 3-point lead with a 4.9% margin of error in a GOP wave election against a guy who was supposed to be dead in the water from the moment his 2008 victory was certified.

It's clear Perriello has something special going for him and we'll see tomorrow if it'll be enough.  And if it is, take note conservadems; you can be from a rural conservative district and still vote like a liberal as it all takes is having convictions and standing by them.  I'll always remember the shock that was finding out that my dad voted for Wellstone in 1990.  He's an Indy who can probably count the number of times he's voted Democrat on one hand and he voted for Wellstone because he wasn't a typical douche-bag politician who just told people what they wanted to hear.  If there is anything people hate more than a partisan it's a politician.

[ Parent ]
You can hate his politics...
But he campaigned for 24 hours straight.

Rep. Giffords is probably going to survive for a similar reason. People just like her. They might disagree with her politically, but she's charismatic and she doesn't seem phony.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
If Giffords loses
the parallel to Maria Cantwell in '94 seems inescapable. Gaby would be back.
[ Parent ]
Oh yes
I don't think she'll lose. But I am certain she will run for Senate in 2012.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Perriello
has something special most politicians don't have these days. He comes off as a person that you may hate his votes, but he'll take the time to justify why he voted that way. You may not like it, but you could understand why he voted the way he does. And yes he sticks to his guns. Alan Grayson sticks to his guns as well, except he's a complete "knucklehead Neanderthal" asshole to use his own words against him. Not many politicians has the gift of being able to convince people without a barrage of TV ads.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I agree
I don't agree with many, probably any, of Periello's votes, but I have tremendous respect for the man.  
[ Parent ]
Did He Vote For Wellstone Again In 1996?
I was always blown away by the number of full-blown wingnuts I spoke to during my years as a reporter in rural Minnesota who thought Wellstone was great.
[ Parent ]
Also a Republican pollster n/t

[ Parent ]
Hmm, If Hurt's own pollster
says he's only down 2 points, I'd worry. Especially because Perriello has the reputation of having one of the best GOTV programs in the House.
[ Parent ]
It is amazing
how few House Polls there are.  

In the 77 House Polls since October 20th the average swing from 2008 is 18.6%, which would imply a Generic Ballot of GOP +8.

I have no idea why I haven't heard any polling in my district NY-13.
I've even got a robo poll from a local news station on the Grimm/McMahon race.  Yet the only polls we've seen are two internals from over a month ago.

I guess one could read between the lines on their being no new internals leaked since then on McMahon seeing the race tightening but Grimm not seeing it too much beyond the 8 point McMahon lead he previously claimed.

But not sure why we havent seen any independent polls released.

Speaking of which got a robo call from Dick Morris today.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
CT-5: Caligiuri 52- Murphy 44 (merriman river)
Possible casualty of Foley surge?  National environment? Both?

Via ctcapitolreport.  

Junk poll by unreliable pollster? CT answer to "We Ask America"? Methinksso. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I really like that Im at a point
where I can just look at the pollster name and immediately judge the quality of the poll.  If I've never heard of the pollster, than chances are they're crap.
[ Parent ]
IDK abt this poll...
... but Murphy losing seems like a real possibility and I wonder: if he loses, do people think that he'd run for Lieberman's seat anyway? I mean, it's a tad unusual to run for higher office the first cycle after losing your House seat, but it's also not unheard of. And what does he have to lose?  
[ Parent ]
Junk poll
Junk poll and Murphy safely ensconced in his d+2 district despite his votes for health care bill, etc.?  We will find out in 27 hours and 40 mins--well not quite since the votes need to be counted--maybe 30 hours.  At this point, who knows. The poll suggests his fortunes may be linked to Obama--what voters think about Obama seems to correlate almost perfectly with how they plan to vote.

He has definitely been discussed as a Lieberman challenger, he may have enough cred with the national party to tak him on even if he poses that seat in this environment. The GOP wanted porter to run in NV despite his 08 loss, could be similar: loss that can't be laid entirely at his feet (and he may well win), deeply unpopular incumbent. A question is how deep the d bench is in ct.

 

[ Parent ]
All the expert prognosticators say JUNK POLL......
Tim Sahd's Top 90 likely-to-flip rankings have Chris Murphy at 83, upgraded from 77, and as an aside Jim Himes at 80, upgraded a TON from 51.  Sahd has 78 Dem-held seats flipping before Murphy's.

Cook still has Murphy and Himes both lean Dem, even as he has 29 Dem seats already flipping and 49 more in tossup--68 total before you get to lean Dem seats.

Rothenberg puts both Murphy and Himes in the nearly-safe "Dem favored" category, and never had them any more vulnerable than that going back at least tothe start of October.  Rothenberg has a whopping 81 Dem-held seats in more vulnerable categories than anyone in CT.

There have been so many shock polls this cycle, and plenty late, that your peddling just one more to push your right-wing narrative is crap commentary.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Nobody cares about the healthcare bill anymore
And I welcome the GOP trying to frame the entire next Congress about how to kill health insurance reform.  Obama absolutely sucks at going on the offense (he's too intellectual to throw the gloves off) but when it comes time to defending it, well he'll get the opportunity with every stroke of his veto pen.
[ Parent ]
ct 5/healthcare
1. On the MRG poll:  It is true that House polling is erratic and other factors suggest that Murphy is in better shape than trailing badly as the poll suggests.  So, it is just one poll and may well be wrong.  It is a bit of a stretch to say that the prognosticators have affirmatively rejected and discounted this pollster given that the poll was just released this afternoon after the latest Cook, Rothenburg updates.  You indicate he is in a "lean Dem" category or only in the 80s of seats likely to flip--for a dem this year, that means he is favored, but one to watch.  Perhaps if this poll came out at 9 am, he'd have been ranked 63rd rather than 83rd or moved to toss up?  

2. On the right-wing narrative that I am peddling:  I think that this site is a great resource for up-to-the-minute polling info.  This was a poll that just come out and had not made it yet into most news sources.  Finding polls like this is why I read through here, and may be why some others do too.  The election is tomorrow.  What narratives should I push?  At this point, the spin is over and it is time to count the votes.  

3.  Healthcare:  I do not think that "nobody cares about health care."  No doubt factors beyond D control have affected this election, but pushing healthcare is a part of the picture.  The ins and outs will be forgotten, but to many voters it may symbolize the overreach of one-party rule and contribute to a sense that the dems chose to exploit an economic crisis for their own goals rather than focus on addressing it.  Why did they spend a year/$1T on this if they now theink the stimulus should have bee bigger or not enough was done about unemployment?

[ Parent ]
He
could run for Senate in 2012. He could also run for his CD again. If he runs and gets elected to Congress again then he could wait until Blumenthal leaves. I think Blumenthal only serves two terms so that would be another decade in Congress. Or he could risk it all and go for Senate next year, he would probably be the best we could get.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
CT-Sen 2012
There seems to be four candidates gunning for Lieberman

Ned Lamont could go for it again
Susan Bysiewicz is clearly gunning for the seat with her drop from the gubernatorial once Blummy got the 2010 seat instead of 2012
Jim Himes due to his up and comer status
Chris Murphy due to his up and comer status

If I have a real job with benefits and a starting salary of at least $30k a year by then, I am personally pledging $500 to whoever gets the honors.  Lieberman needs to go and not in a purist way but in a, you back stabbed us you asshole, way.

[ Parent ]
If Ned Lamont runs again,
I will personally make the biggest possible donation to any other Democrat running. (besides Lieberman)

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Do you think
Lieberman retires, or tries to run again? And if he runs again, will there be a legitimate Republican candidate, or will he be the de-facto Republican candidate?

I'm not sure I want him to run. As much as fun as it will be to see him lose, as people say is likely the case, if he ran and there wasn't a legitimate Republican candidate, he'd be draining Republican dollars from other candidates in various states, like he did in 2006. That would be a big plus for us.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
You think the
Teabaggers will let Lieberman run as the de-facto Republican?  
[ Parent ]
That's a good point.
Now that I think about it, I don't remember the specific circumstances that explain why the Republican candidate sank so much in 2006.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I remember, and no, the teabaggers will never accept Lieberman......
First, regarding 2006, Republican nominee Alan Schlesinger was a sacrificial lamb who was a former state legislator but a bit of a crank.  He had a scandal that today would be only a "scandal," having it revealed he used a fake name to get into Connecticut casinos where he had been banned.

Schlesinger never was a serious candidate, but what killed him was Lieberman losing the Democratic Party and then running as an indy.  Lieberman lost the primary because he strongly supported the Iraq War and parroted all the right-wing talking points, but for the same reason Connecticut rank-and-file Republicans embraced him upon his primary defeat and run as an indy.  After all, the CT GOP couldn't win otherwise, they figured they might as well back the guy who is with them on the most important issue of the election and can win.

Meanwhile, Lieberman was able to hold on to a large share of indies and about one-third of Dems in November, largely because Lamont run a piss-poor general election campaign.

The Iraq War is over.  Lieberman has voted with Dems on every floor vote, including health care reform and the stimulus and all else.  I'm pretty sure Lieberman voted for all bailouts in Bush's final months and in Obama's first 2 years.  Yes Lieberman voted for McCain, but McCain lost, so it doesn't matter.

Pretty straightforward that not only teabaggers but more mainstream northeastern Republicans will have nothing more
to do with Lieberman.  He cannot win a Republican primary.

Lieberman also cannot win as an independent because Republicans no longer will support him, and Democrats will nominate a stronger challenger than Ned Lamont.

I actually argued in detail here more than once that Lieberman's only path to reelection is through the Democratic primary.  He can continue voting with his party on the floor, stay relatively quiet for the next year-plus, visibly endorse Obama's reelection early on, and raise a ton of money.  Democrats hate him now and he would have a tough time, but he could make himself just formidable looking enough in spite of weak polling to scare off top-tier challengers who don't want to sully their political future by risking a bloody primary defeat.  Even though things are different and Lieberman is no longer as formidable as he once was, his history of bouncing back and surviving can still make people wonder if challenging him ultimately is a frustrating trap.  Or, multiple challengers can join in, and Lieberman wins a divided field.

If Lieberman is the Democratic nominee, he coasts to reelection even with poor favorables and poor job approvals.  He doesn't worry about turnout because Obama is on the ballot.  And the Democratic establishment will support an incumbent Democrat who wins his primary in a blue state, period.

Question is, is Lieberman smart enough to realize he HAS to run as a Democrat to have ANY chance to win?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I believe Lieberman cut a deal with Rove...
to save his senate seat.  

Also there is nothing Lieberman can do to win back Democrats.  Nothing.  He campaigned with McCain/Palin. He was the front man in killing the public option.  

And given that there will be 8+ Republican votes needed to pass any legislation in the next congress he'll never be able to cast major deciding votes.  

[ Parent ]
I never said the Teabaggers would support Lieberman.
What I was implying was something similar to what you described, which was happened in 2006: Lieberman essentially became the Republican. If Lieberman were to run as some form of an independent candidate, I could see something similar happening, even if the Republican nominee is somewhat more popular or powerful, and especially if he or she were a Teabagger. I don't know if he'd win, but I could envision a scenario where he runs on a third party line, and the Republicans nominate a loon while the Democrats nominate someone strong like Chris Murphy. Maybe Lieberman is too unpopular with Republicans to really be viable in that situation, even the more moderate ones in Connecticut, but it's probably crossed his mind.

Of course, you say he needs to run as a Democrat, and your scenario sounds plausible enough, but I don't think he wins a Democratic primary.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Whatever has crossed Lieberman's mind, he never again can win lots of GOP votes, and...
...that's not something he can change.

And you're repeating the CW in saying Lieberman can't win a Democratic primary in 2012, and your odds of being right are no worse than 50-50 in saying that.

But strange things happen in politics, and I can easily see Joe running as a Dem again and simply scaring off top opposition and/or drawing too many challengers for anyone to take a plurality over him.

But whether he can win a Dem primary or not, it's his ONLY path to reelection.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Do you really think a primary
will be that bloody? At some point, I imagine the White House getting involved and, either directly or indirectly, narrowing the field so that it's not divided up. (After all, do you think anyone inside the Obama administration really likes Lieberman?) And whomever that person is will probably win, unless Lieberman is a lot more popular with the base in Connecticut than I realize or becomes so in the next two years. In the end, he's voted the right ways, but he's hated not so much for how he votes but for how he acts. Imagine how difficult it will be for him when someone finds footage of him implying he's unsure of whether Obama is a Marxist.

I actually think it depends on, as you sort of indicated above, the state of other races. If going with Lieberman looks like the easiest path to victory, then they will probably just suck it up and devote resources to other races. But if the political situation has improved, I suspect he'll be finished.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Brilliant post, DC,
and so audacious I'm not sure that Lieberman has even considered it.

He can't succeed as a Republican. As you said, he voted for TARP, the stimulus, health care reform, DISCLOSE, financial reform, DADT. He'd be dead in the water in a Republican primary. That's why I'm pretty sure he won't switch.

The indie route is tough. He'll probably have viable candidates on either side of him - and in a Democratic state, the viable Democrat is likely to win.

Fighting for the Democratic primary could be enormously difficult for him, but it just might be LESS difficult than choosing any of the other paths and succeeding.

And he has two years to boost his Democratic bonafides, fighting for everything from DADT to climate change legislation.

As I mentioned in a few previous posts, he's been awfully careful NOT to endorse Republican candidates this year, which leads me to believe he's not looking to the future as a Republican or Republican-leaning independent.

We shall see!

[ Parent ]
Only way Lieberman runs is as an Independent
Neither the Dems nor Republicans would nominate him; that is, unless there's three liberals vs. Lieberman or three conservatives vs. Lieberman. He could garner 30% in either primary. But, unless he can boost his approval back into the 40s, I suspect he opts not to run at all. His ego may be huge, but the last thing he wants is to go out a loser.

I know one of his key focuses now is DADT. If he could somehow make himself the face of that movement AND succeed in getting it repealed, he'd probably win re-election.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I
don't think DADT will save Lieberman. His scars go too deep for a good progressive thing like DADT to save him. Look at us talking about 2012 before 2010 is over.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
The biggest tell
from Lieberman is that he's been quiet this whole cycle. He hasn't endorsed anyone. As we all know, Lieberman loves to make bold endorsements.

He's definitely running. He doesn't want to piss off either Democrats or Republicans, so that he can make a less complicated play for the middle as an independent candidate.

[ Parent ]
He campaigned with McCain.
He's dogmeat to Dems.  I want to hear him answer to the fact that he thought Sarah Palin was ready to be President come the debates.  

GOP might vote for him strategically if the teabagger movement has fizzled out.  

[ Parent ]
By 2012,
his campaigning for McCain will be 4 years in the past. Almost a lifetime.

I'm not saying he'll be successful courting Dems, but it certainly appears he's desperately trying not to piss anybody off. And he wouldn't do that if he were retiring.

[ Parent ]
His problem...
Is that it will be a presidential election year, so the McCain/Palin memories will be front and center, even more so if Palin runs.  

And being the face of the public option being killed in the Senate will only be two years old.  And HCR will be a major topic in the Presidential election.  

[ Parent ]
Those things don't matter as much as you think......
Lieberman alleviates the wound of the McCain endorsement by visibly endorsing Obama's reelection.  It's still used against him, and it still can work, but that helps him.

And the public option is a non-issue.  Most importantly, you give outsized blame to Lieberman when in fact a half-dozen or so Democratic Senators openly opposed it and flat out refused cloture if it stayed.  The public option is a concern of the activist left, and I sympathize because I wanted to see it, too, and it was a major political miscalculation not to include it since its absence didn't help with any voters, but hurt with some others.  But looking forward people aren't going to voting on that.  HCR got done, even if patchwork and imperfect.  The public option is too distant and too deep in the weeds for most voters, even primary voters who are higher-information than general election voters.

Lieberman's general arrogance and two-facedness and his endorsement of McCain will be his real liabilities.

But he still has a path to victory, starting with simply scaring off primary opposition by raising gobs of money and continuing to compile a compliant voting record during the Obama years.  The reality is hardly any incumbent Democratic Senator gets a primary challenge, everyone is scared of incumbent Senators.  Lieberman is more likely than most to draw one, but he has a plausible means of scaring off everyone.  And his Plan B can be to draw multiple challengers and then sneak through with a plurality.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Like Lincoln, Specter and Bennet?
Lieberman will not be a Dem incumbent, he's an indie.  He's polling in the low 20's right now in favorables.  

He can vote with the Dems each and every vote between now and November 2012 and it won't matter because he'll never undo what he did when he was the 60th vote when he's the 52nd Dem vote with GOP votes needed.  

Remember his remark about not liking medicare for 55yo after Weiner liked it so much because that means the liberals like it?

He's going to get the Lincoln treatment if he tries to run as a Democrat.  His only chance is to run as a centrist in a three way and hope to get 20% from each side of the aisle, or hope the Republican is in third and the GOP votes strategically again.  

[ Parent ]
Hey Roscoe...
I'm somewhere between you and DCCyclone. I think Lieberman will have a tough path as either a Dem or an indie. The latter would probably be the likeliest path, but either will require Lieberman currying lots of favor with Democrats in this blue state.

That said, I think we can strongly rule out Lieberman's caucusing with the Republicans - that is, unless he decides over the next few weeks to retire.

[ Parent ]
Well said n/t

[ Parent ]
I wonder if there is Lieberman sabotage...
Take out Murphy now so he's less of a threat in 2012.  everybody has Murphy as the Dem senate candidate in 2012 - but that star would lessen if he can't hold his house seat now.  
[ Parent ]
Sabotage by whom?
The Democrats because they like defeating their own?  Republicans because they dont just want a Congressional seat?
[ Parent ]
The Connecticut for Lieberman party

[ Parent ]
If it isn't Murphy who takes out Lieberman, it'll be another Democrat
It's not like the Connecticut bench has no Democrats other than Murphy.

Even if Murphy's the strongest, there are plenty of other pols in Connecticut who would be plenty capable of taking out Lieberman.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Lieberman has no control
over his namesake party. It was taken over by a guy named John Mertens, who is now running as a third-party candidate for Senate, and has maybe 50 supporters.
[ Parent ]
My guess?
Democrats dropped off as soon as the Senate race stopped looking competitive. Foley made a big play and went negative, taking soft support from Malloy. Presidents Obama and Clinton rallied this weekend in Connecticut to tout the gubernatorial and House races. Democrats will come out on Tuesday and give Malloy and Reps. Murphy and Himes a narrow win.

It's essentially a blue state, and these are good candidates against not-so-good candidates. I think they win, but it's too close for my liking. Way too close.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
CT would be part of the wave
Just like NY.  

PA losses were always expected, but in the Northeast, NY and CT always seemed safer.  As the trends have shown NY and CT seats trending GOP.

By the wave, when I say wave I mean 60+ seats.  I'm at 55 right now and don't feel all that bad about that number since I have the D's keeping the Senate and taking MN-Guv and FL-guv (yup I'm going optimistic in FL, that's never hurt Dems before has it LOL).

[ Parent ]
All politics is local...
I'm at about 55 myself. I think Democrats will rally in Connecticut; the DGA and DCCC haven't blinked yet, which gives me some confidence they believe those weekend rallies were all they needed to shore up the margins in the Nutmeg State.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Will You Still Say All Politics Is Local.....
.....on Wednesday morning if Bobby Bright, Jim Marshall, Allen Boyd, Travis Childers, Lincoln Davis, and Gene Taylor all get beaten?
[ Parent ]
Are those all districts in the South?
Yes, yes they are.

So, yes I will.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Thank
you so much for writing all of those out. Seriously Crisitunity you rock.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
It's gotta be a painful and thankless task, too. So ditto, thanks. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Its not thankless if people say thanks :-)

[ Parent ]
Yes thank you!

amazing how
Meg Whitman suddenly morphed into a Democrat.
That woman will
do just about anything to win the governorship, won't she?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Is Tom Foley now a Democrat according to Ras?
Or is that just a typo?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Nah
that only happens on Fox News when a Republican screws up. (Mark Sanford)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
DSCC last push ad buys
AK-SEN: $150K
CO-SEN: $420K
PA-SEN: $610K
WA-SEN: $270K

Nice to see the AK play is serious.  Still going after PA, no panic in WA.

Agree with all these
Good moves by the DSCC
[ Parent ]
I
kind of wish they would spend more on Washington. But maybe they have seen numbers we haven't and feel safer. I'm not one to do the pollsters suck method of things but there could be some truth to the robo polls favoring Republicans in WA. I hope so anyway.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
They have an internal with her up 7
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I have seen that. Pretty encouraging. Ras, Elway and this have her up, she'll probably eek out a win. Still PPP is the best pollster, but even the best pollster will be wrong from time to time, here's hoping to them being wrong this time!  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
even the best pollster
will be wrong about 1 time in 20 just by chance. And doesn't Washington have an unusually high percentage of cell-phone only people in the Seattle area?
[ Parent ]
As do Marist and Youguv
Its really only PPP showing Rossi with a lead.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
Too late in WA
Most ballots are back now.  
[ Parent ]
Dino has an excellent closing ad
too busy to link to it, but it's understated, modest, and makes him sound like a good guy.

And it's just him on the ad. Patty Murry's closing ad has her speaking for about 3 seconds.

I hope it is too late -- but we'll see if it makes a dent in very late WA votes (which just have to be postmarked by tomorrow).

[ Parent ]
Would have been more effective 2-3 campaigns ago
I think Rossi has come across as very entitled for quite a while now and that continued in this campaign. If he wins it's based more on luck than anything else.
[ Parent ]
I assume
no Nevada because Reid already has enough. Depressing how the field has narrowed.

No West Virginia - hopefully that is a good sign.

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't take these as exhaustive.
There's been some huge spending in IL over the past few days, and NV got $1MM just a few days ago IIRC.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
The spending
was from the Democrats or the Republicans?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Dems.


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Reid's GOTV operation appears impressive.
http://www.rollcall.com/news/5...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
As someone mentioned
I don't think there's a question that Reid's GOTV is sterling.

If Reid fails to win, it will not be because his campaign did not reach every possible vote. It will be because there just were not enough votes to reach.

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
I think
you are referring to me, and it's nice to see a comment validated. Thanks!

I have to imagine that's a really awful feeling in the back of a campaign staff's mind--the fact that there just might not be enough votes. After a certain point, if both sides are fighting like dogs to reach every voter, which is certainly likely now that technology makes it easier, you are running out of people to contact, unless you are dealing with a district that is very strange with a lot of voters that are hard to reach. You are probably contacting people several times over because you are fighting over roughly the same ten to twenty percent that will decide the race. And if it's for a House seat, it's possible it's not that many households.

I guess you just have to go into the race thinking that there's either (a) always more voters up for grabs and/or (b) always a way to change someone's mind. If you can't do that, how do you keep up the fight?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
You pray for intervention
Be it your opponent collapsing, an event outside your control chanegs the landscape, etc.  We've seen it happen enough to say we need to always have a candidate in every race.  No more "unopposed" ever.

But yes, I feel that in spite of huge negativity on ehre that many of the Dem candidates ran about the best campaigns possible.  This includes house races (Perriello, Pat Murphy, Chris Murphy, etc), Guv races (Strickland, etc) and Senate (Sestak et al).

The opposite is true of course.  There just wasn't a chance for certain candidates, but some will also lose due to bad campaigns (Lee Fisher is textbook).

[ Parent ]
Reid has been constantly ahead in registered voters
if all registered voters voted he'd win so the votes are clearly there. It may be just an impossible task for any campaign to get Americans off their lazy asses and vote
[ Parent ]
Geraghty's picks for the House are up.
Consider this a worst case scenario for the Democrats - he picks the Republicans to gain 70 seats. A couple of surprises, though: he sees Hulburd as winning AZ-3 (while predicing Grijalva to go down), and also sees Pat Miles scoring a big upset against Justin Amash in MI-3, something that I've seen a couple of commentators on this site suggest could happen, but not Cook, Rothenberg or Sabato.

Some of them are out and out ridiculous, of course - is anyone besides Geraghty still picking Ganley to win in Ohio? So take it for what it's worth.  

Whoops, here's the link:
[ Parent ]
Filner?
Russ Carnahan? Surprised he sees Garcia in FL-25.
[ Parent ]
I won't bother with that link even for entertainment......
I'll say only if the GOP-held seats flip that people in this sub-thread say Geraghty guesses will flip, then we're in for a better night than anyone believed.  We're not going to get those kinds of combinations.  If the GOP is taking 60ish seats, we're not going to take more than 4 or 5 GOP-held seats, and 4 of those are preordained Cao and Djou seats and open seats IL-10 and DE-AL.  The 5th almost certainly would be FL-25, although FL-12 is out there if the right-wing 3rd wheel really does score in double-digits.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Off the top of your head,
do you remember (a) how many seats were supposedly in play in 2006 at this point, (b) how many were supposed to be gone for the Republicans, and (c) how many tossups they ended up winning out of the tossups? I am not sure if that many seats for us are really gone, but if you figure that we split the difference of the tossups, it might not be such a bad night.

I'm slightly superstitious, and I have gone back and forth with this all day, so I don't want to predict that the Democrats hold the House. Yet, I have this feeling things won't be so bad as long as the polls aren't painting a falsely positive picture for us with the polls showing us up or only down slightly when we are down by a lot more, or as long as the polls are overestimating the turn out of Republicans by just a little. I guess this means I am hoping that they are in fact failing to capture cell phone only voters or are underestimating the strength of Democrats with regards to turnout for blacks and Hispanics in key areas. I don't think it's that crazy of a hope, however.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
What I'm seeing...
I think the public pollsters are underestimating the strength of GOTV operations in Democratic machine states. If more Republicans than Democrats really do end up voting in Nevada, Illinois, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Connecticut, yeah, sure, Democrats are screwed. But I don't think it will happen.

A few months ago, some people were speculating organized labor, Latinos, LGBTs, and other traditionally Democratic blocs - and GOTV engines - wouldn't bother turning out this year. Looks like they were wrong. There's early voting in Nevada to prove it, and some pretty sweet-looking margins in Colorado, Iowa, and California, too.

I do think the House is gone. But in order for the GOP to win anything like 70 seats, labor and Latinos and LGBTs would have to decide at the last minute to sit this one out. And after the Republicans went to all the trouble of pissing them off and reminding them just how little the Republican leadership cares about their key interests, why would they?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
That's a key difference with '94
GOTV is enhanced with early voting.

Perhaps I'm wrong, but it feels like the major prognosticators are assuming that GOP voters will make up the difference tomorrow -- I don't think that's a certainty.

[ Parent ]
I might have said this to you before,
or maybe it was to someone else, but I still think it's a good point: the gains to the Republicans in polling probably aren't distributed evenly across the country. I could be wrong about this, but if I am not, and the negative trends against the Democrats are concentrated to certain parts of the country, that will be reflected in the voting there. Or rather, the parts of the country where will they do the worst are the parts where they were already doing the worst, and while in other parts it won't necessarily be that much better, it won't be bad enough to prevent them from pulling out of some close races--perhaps more than many expect, if they bring the ground games, which is what they are doing.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I think the GOP's weaknesses in certain regions
is one of the under-reported bit of news in this cycle. The GOP is massively unpopular in the northeast and west, while the Dems are massively unpopular in the south and midwest.  If we can hold off serious gains by the GOP in the Northeast (NY, PA), the West (AZ, NV, CA, WA, OR) and the three midwestern states where the Dems are still strong (IA, MN and IL) we should hold the house.  
[ Parent ]
Should have let Detroit 3 die...
Look at Michigan, Ohio, Indiana - all going hard for the GOP this cycle.  

Ohio is the worst with Portman - a Bushie through and through.  And Voinovich is a Republican, so it's not a case of throw the bums out.  And Kasich is the favorite tomorrow as well - A Wall Streeter and a Job Exporter/Deficit exploder - way to choose'em Ohio.  

[ Parent ]
That's insaine!
Letting the Detroit 3 die would have caused way higher unemployment and huge hardship for many, many working class people. What do you want? Simply to hurt people? Or do you think higher unemployment would have given the Dems more support in this election? And, look, the 3 are doing pretty good right now.
[ Parent ]
A few things:
1. When doing national polls, what steps do the pollsters take to account for this? I remember seeing regional breakdowns of national polls before, like those for presidential approval, and it's weird that they wouldn't try do it here. Perhaps they feel it usually moves in tandem, but why does that necessarily have to be the case? If it's really much higher in the South and maybe the Midwest than in other regions, wouldn't that skew the generic ballot?

I don't want to be grasping at straws here, but if there was a generic ballot that would be different from the national average for specific reasons, and the Democrats were doing better, you'd think that would change their potential for losses, even if it only moved a point or two in their direction.

2. Are the Democrats that unpopular in some Midwestern states, like Ohio or Michigan, or is it really a matter of the candidates and the fact that have been in control of those states for years? Their unpopularity seems cyclical to me.

3. To what extent do you think coattails will be a factor in states like New York or Pennsylvania?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
According to Gallup, the Republican lead is pretty large in all regions
http://www.gallup.com/poll/144...

Midwest is actually the smallest lead at 7, while the GOP leads by 20+ in the West and South.

[ Parent ]
I'd be curious to see
what states are represented where. Is Texas a Southern state or a Western state? And if some place like Idaho or Arizona is grouped in with California, which it is, how does that skew the results?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I'd be curious to see
what states are represented where. Is Texas a Southern state or a Western state? And if some place like Idaho or Arizona is grouped in with California, which it is, how does that skew the results?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
That's
part of the reason why I think the Democrats might keep the House. You and I both know that they are starting from a pretty big position of strength. The margin is, at worst, 39 seats, or maybe even 43 seats or higher, depending on how many flip. The Republicans can still have a very, very good night and we can still keep the House, if they flip 40 of our seats and we flip four of theirs.

I'm of the mindset that there really aren't a 100 seats in serious contention, unless the polls are drastically underestimating the strength of the Republicans. It's probably more like 60, maybe 70 seats, including the ones that people think are already gone. In these races, based on the polls that aren't automatically rejected because they have absurd electorate projections or something similar, things look about even for us--up in some slightly, or down in others slightly. It does seem like we are, more often than not, at the point where factors that we can control can make the difference.

Basically, I expect some combination of coattails, ground game, and general indifference between Republicans and Democrats to keep us in control of the House in a slim majority. People tell me that I am wrong in expecting coattails to help some of the Democrats in upstate New York, for instance, but I am not yet convinced. The Democrats can, as I said before, still lose a lot of seats and still hold on. If the Democrats couldn't didn't win as much as they could have in 2006, why are Republicans necessarily going to be able to do it now?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
FWIW
And a point of reference:
In 2006 49 Democrats running in Republican districts had at least one poll with them ahead.  They won 30 seats. (27 of those 49 and 3 others)

In 2008 36 Democrats running in Republican districts had at least one poll with them ahead. They won 26 seats but lost 6? seats.  (21 of those 36 +5 others)

Interesting enough Nye in VA-2 was the only person who won who did not have at least one poll that showed him losing by less than the MOE.(AZ-1 and NY-13 didn't have polls, but like TN-6, LA-3 and KS-3 this year, they were so far gone nobody bothered)

This year 88 Republicans running in Democratic districts have at least one poll that shows them ahead.  Although Democrats should pick up 4-5 Republican seats.  
Also 12 more Republicans have at least one poll that shows them losing by less than the MOE.

[ Parent ]
So what does this lead you to think?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
This could be apples and oranges
with it being Dem and Rep internals, but it looks like generally 55-60% of the races were the non-incumbant party has at least one poll showing him with the lead end up fliping.  Add to that the 3 races (TN-6, KS-3, and LA-3) were there is no poll but is sure to flip. Also add 4-5 seats in districts were no poll shows the GOP ahead.  Then subtract the 4-5 that the Democrats will probably gain.

57.5(88) + 3 + 4.5 - 4.5 = 54

This could be off because size of wave matters, or as stated before Dem internals vs Rep internals.

[ Parent ]
Interesting.
That is around where a lot of people have been landing.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Haha
This was actually the first time I had ever even heard of Nick Popaditch. I suspect some Republican internal that "forgot" to poll in Spanish might have something to do with that projection. Good luck with that, Nick.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Geraghty is a right wing cheerleader.
Considering the source 70 seats is the worst case.  Geraghty was optimistic that Republicans would retain control of the House until the very end in 2006 FWIW.
[ Parent ]
Absolutely true
What I like about him is that he has some interesing sources within the Republican political machine that tell you what the other side is thinking.

I include this link ONLY for entertainment value, not because I think there's much possibility it will happen. (even if there's a big wave, I don't see how you get Quayle losing but Ganley winning)  

[ Parent ]
He's high
Hulburd but McClung and Kelly?

Ganley, really?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
All we've seen has been positive on AZ-3
The PPP poll, and then Hulburd loaning his campaign money. I guess given the climate, Quayle might win easily, but I will laugh and laugh and laugh if the Quayle politicians are so poor they can't even win in a year like this.
[ Parent ]
If there's one suprise for us on an otherwise horrible night
I wouldn't bet against it being here.
[ Parent ]
Iowa election prediction contest
You can't win if you don't play! You do not have to be from Iowa to enter--just interested in Iowa politics.
A piece on 1994 predictions
This is an interesting piece. Benjy Sarlin at the Daily Beast digs up old '94 predictions, and notes that they were uniformly settled on around a 25-seat gain for the GOP in the House and 3-5 in the Senate.

Link: http://www.thedailybeast.com/b...

Here are excerpts from a few predictions by the major election analysts that were published in Campaigns & Elections two weeks before the 1994 midterms:

Charles Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report:

"The Democrats will lose 20-25 in the House; four to five in the Senate. I'm seeing softening for Democrats in key Senate races, such as Virginia. Anti -incumbency, despondency among Democratic voters and a galvanization of GOP voters are the overarching trends. Democrats are disillusioned with Clinton; Republicans hate him and will turn out in droves. The GOP vote is coming home and it's hardening earlier than usual."

Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Report, a political newsletter:

"The Democrats will lose 24-26 seats in the House; three to five in the Senate. They're vulnerable in the South and in traditionally Republican districts in the North that they've been able to hold in the past by splitting the Republicans. However, President Clinton's unpopularity is uniting the GOP. This isn't a particularly ideological election, though. It's just insiders versus outsiders, and Democrats are the insiders right now. Voters remain skeptical about the role of government, another negative for Democrats. Clinton has tried to alter this widespread mistrust of governmental activism, but he hasn't succeeded."

Larry Sabato, professor of government at the University of Virginia:

"My slogan has always been: 'He who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass.' Nevertheless, it looks like Democrats will be lucky to lose only 24-25 seats in the House and four in the Senate. Much of it hinges on President Clinton's popularity. Many of these elections are turning into a referendum on Bill Clinton, as is usually the case with mid-term elections and the President in power. About a half dozen Senate races will be decided with less than two percent of the vote. So last-minute trends will matter.

Clinton could bounce back, as he's done in the past, and that could reduce Democratic losses. I don't think his approval rating will sink any lower than about 35 percent; that's his floor and he's close to it now. If anything, I think his popularity might rise a little bit between now and election day. When all is said and done, there's only one thing we know for sure: the Democrats will lose a lot of seats in both Houses."

The other analysts' predictions cited in the piece were 25 House seats (Jack Germond), 20-25 seats (Gloria Borger), 25 seats (Cokie Roberts), and 25 seats (William Schneider). Notice a pattern? Of course that's not what happened -- instead Republicans ended up shocking the world with a 54-seat gain and their first House majority in 40 years.

Obviously, this cuts both ways: we could wind up with significantly WORSE results than the 55 losses or so being forecast. Or we could do much better.  

It's important to note...
After Cook, Rothenberg, and Sabato missed so badly in 1994, they're going to be very twitchy and not nearly as conservative in estimating the strength of a Republican wave.

I think they about peg it this time. Losses about equal to 1994 but Democrats keep the Senate and convert a few governorships.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Correct me if I am wrong,
but isn't the big difference now that Republicans aren't more popular than Democrats but are in fact less popular? Some polling suggests that they might be trusted more on some issues than the Democrats, but my impression is that there's no clear preference for Republicans over Democrats--that it really is a race between the side that voters hate less.

If that is the case, wouldn't that by itself limit the losses?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Quote
"I don't think his approval rating will sink any lower than about 35 percent; that's his floor and he's close to it now."

It is remarkable that Obama has an approval rating (45) as high as it is given everything.  

[ Parent ]
Just goes to show you...
...you can't rely on Cook and Gang for everything. I'd also be interested to hear their predictions right before the 1998 midterms, when polls apparently overstated Republicans' standing and people were expecting a better Republican outcome than what we got.
[ Parent ]
I found something
An old WP link that sums up a bunch of predictions. To be fair, while '98 has gone down in political memory as a big GOP year that stalled, it looked like by election day, most were only forecasting narrow GOP gains. Cook saw 1-9 GOP pickups in the House, while Rothenberg forecast 0-6. In reality it was D +5. So off, but not wildly so.

Of course, Dick Morris was predicting GOP +30.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

[ Parent ]
This is what keeps me up at night...
...literally!  I can't imagine that it could be a lot worse than it is, but it could!

Like another poster said, these guys are more acutely aware of what is going on now than before.  Remember that the full effects of the 1990 redistricting were not fully manifest yet, and polling was much less sophisticated and useless often than is now.  Of course, back then, you didn't have to account for the cell-phone only households problem.

[ Parent ]
"used less often" not useless...
...sorry for the typo.
[ Parent ]
I think in '94
...people just didn't really believe the GOP could ever take the House in the foreseeable future. The Dems just seemed to have a lock on the body, so people were underestimating gains. And a lot of the districts, especially in the South, had long sent Democrats to Congress, even in the face of such unpopular national Democrats as Carter, McGovern, Mondale, etc.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe they were right
at that time, and there was a last minute turn for the worse.
[ Parent ]
OH-Gov
I'm liking the trends for the Ohio gubernatorial race, and the Illinois Senate race.  The rest are pretty bad.
PPP polls is bad for Murray
Rossi leads by 51-47 among those who have already mailed their ballots back in. Many of the people who have not yet may never mail them back.  
Univ. of Washington Poll may be closer to the truth.
They have long-term experience in the field and found Murray ahead 51-45.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
As a Republican
This one has "cautious optimism" written all over it. I've felt this one was winnable from the start, but Rossi has teased twice and fallen short, so I didn't want to build up expectations. I give a slight tilt to Murray at the moment but I've been very impressed with how Rossi has hung in there and put himself in position to win.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
My guess is both campaigns think
Murray has a modest but stable lead with a lot of votes already in, which is why Cook all but closed the book on it.  But God knows I'm reaching for some Democratic surprises, so I can hardly hold your optimism against you.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Yes,
but the Democratic surprises you are likely reaching for are based on more solid information (i.e. vote totals in Nevada and the knowledge of how many crossover votes each candidate will get, and so on) and on states where little, if any, voting has occurred, no?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Yeah
If WA had a regular voting system (election day and early voting) instead of all mail, I would be more confident. I think PPP is overestimating the enthusiasm gap, which is close by the fact you vote from your kitchen.
[ Parent ]
If I were a betting man
I'd put a lot of money on Murray.  

Cook closing the book on it yesterday was meaningful, as are the dozens of public polls showing her with modest to significant leads.  

PPP has no track record in WA of which I am aware, and IVR polling has underestimated Dems in WA cycle after cycle.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
PPP did not poll the WA Senate Race in 2006 with Cantwell nor
did they poll Murray's race against Nethercutt in 2004. Washington voters went 57.5% for Obama in 2008.

IRV polling underestimated the strength of Obama's win in WA as well as the margin of Gregoire's victory.

The Washington Poll nailed the Gregoire margin.

Cook had a look at the Marist and DSCC polls (as well as the RSCC polls that weren't publicly released) before he said Murray has this close race. I think and hope he is right.

[ Parent ]
Rossi under radar campaign
Rossi's been campaigning under the radar. Remember the time he was basically off the TV and allowed Murray to saturate the airwaves? He was in small communities across eastern Washington and it seems to have paid off. The rate of return in these communities seems to be absolutely amazing.    
[ Parent ]
Small communities won't carry the day
especially when she's favored to win Spokane (the pop. base of E. WA) and most of West Washington.  Also, Rossi is a slimy guy who, even when supposedly running, was still doing lectures to rich land speculators on how to get rich off of foreclosures.  The guy has no shame.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I think Rossi lost this race
the day he said he wanted to repeal Wall Street reform.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
If by under-the-radar you mean "off-again, on-again"
He actually did next to nothing over the summer, spoiling any chance of pulling ahead.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Personal feelings
Your young and your letting your personal feelings cloud your political judgment. Murray average in the polls is 48.3 Just about where PPP has her. She's gone backwards in the closing days of the campaign and I tend to believe if she's at 48 that's basically what she will get. But it's speculation now. We will find out tomorrow.  
[ Parent ]
Well Charlie Cook sees something, too...
'cos he's positively bullish on her chances, and he's no fan of Democrats.
[ Parent ]
Speaking of Charlie...
...it would be nice to know what he's seeing that makes him so confident, 'cos I am not.
[ Parent ]
Probaly the RSCC poll that they didn't release when the DSCC
released theirs. If they had good polling numbers you can bet they would have gone public with them. Sometimes silence shouts louder than a press release.  
[ Parent ]
I dislike it when someone slightly older (like myself)
uses a irrelevant description to put down someone younger who has just put out facts and data.

Stay strong, user LookingOver.

[ Parent ]
It's not "personal feelings"
The NRSC was fuming because Rossi was doing nothing to campaign until August.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Yes, because clearly
no undecided voters ever vote for the incumbent. It's accepted political wisdom. Thank you for your political wisdom, oh wise and ancient sage.
[ Parent ]
I've read that "undecideds" break for the challenger but we have
had really mixed results in Washington. In 1980 undecideds broke for the Republican challenger and Maggie went down to defeat. In 2008 undecideds broke for our incumbent governor by almost 3-1 and she defeated Rossi by a greater margin.

In the WA Senate race both candidates are so well know that some wags have called them both incumbents.

The big factor here is City of Seattle turnout and it looks like Democrats have been successful in getting the base out increasing turnout substantially over 2006 levels in key Democratic strongholds.

In WA the Democrats have a much stronger identified Democratic voter trackback and GOTV effort.

[ Parent ]
Are those
totals from those small communities enough to offset the lead Murray is going to have from King County?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
How many?
How many times can you keep squeaking out losses before you really, badly lose?  Some may ask the question the other way with ending with "before you win?" but to me, he's more on the track of a William Jennings Bryant more than anyone else.
[ Parent ]
How is it that
this guy keeps running anyway? Was he the candidate because nobody thought Murray was vulnerable and nobody else wanted to take her on? I seem to remember someone saying that he had to be dragged into the race. Why would they have such a hard time finding a candidate?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
There
was some random poll done months ago showing Rossi in a statistical dead heat with Murray. That's when all the hype about him began. And of course Rasmussen, leaving no stone unturned to set the narrative started pumping out polls showing Rossi competitive and Scott Brown helped seal the deal for him.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Thin Bench
R's have a thin bench here in WA. The AG McKenna is running for Gov in 2012.  The SoS Reed would've been buried in the primary, the conservative base never forgave him for his evenhanded perfomance during the Rossi-Gregoire recount battle.  The three R congress members, you have Reichert, who has some health issues.  And two safe R incumbents in Eastern WA who would be understandably reluctant to give up safe seats to tange with Murray, esp. given the so-called "Cascade Curtain" which makes it near impossible for candidates from Eastern WA to win statewide.

I think Cornyn turned to Rossi because he had no better options.

[ Parent ]
Maybe.
I just think it's odd that in a state that is as large as Washington, or rather that isn't really small, there wasn't at least one Republican who either wouldn't have to give up a seat or would have to give up a seat but wouldn't care because even if he or she lost, his or her profile would be raised?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I think the Rossi of 2004 would have had this in the bag...
A State Senator or even County Councilman w/o the baggage of multiple state runs probably would be favored over Murray this year.
[ Parent ]
That reminds me
I've been wanting to ask what people from WA think of King County Councilor Reagan Dunn? He seems like he could be a good candidate for Reichert's seat if he runs for senate or retires or he could even run for Senate himself if he decides against running for AG. He seems pretty talented, is from King county, and is a decent fundraiser. Is there anything that would disqualify him from a Senate race in 12?  
[ Parent ]
I didn't realize Jennifer had
a political kid... she could have held the seat for as long as she liked.
[ Parent ]
Yep
Unfortunate she died so young.  
[ Parent ]
Only Sen. Cantwell's high approval ratings
I think a guy like Dunn might prefer to run for governor anyway.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Its actually always
Been pretty lukewarm. McKenna already has all the Republican support for Governor locked up, but Dunn seems likely to run for AG, against another Republican King County councilor.  
[ Parent ]
PPP
is the best pollster out there but they are also the ONLY pollster showing Murray losing. It is a true tossup and could happen, but I would not put money on it if I was you. Plus have you read the article by Silver about robopolls underperforming dems? Yeah my money's with Murray.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen
Shows Murray down 1.
[ Parent ]
Nope.
Look above you. Now shows her up 3.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Murkowski internal Poll
Murkowski releases internal polls showing her at 36%, Miller at 34% and McAdams at 22%, adjust as usual, and you hear her say, Miller's ahead, I'm still in it.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Sounds like a spin poll
to keep Democrats in her corner. I'd bet Miller is weaker than that, and McAdams stronger.
[ Parent ]
Murky internal
She's putting down McAdams numbers to fool Dems that she's only viable alternative to Miller, she puts herself ahead by only 2 means she's behind by quite a few points, I still don't know who was the smart person who spinned the whole media that Miller is imploding, Chris Cilliza even bought the crap, said last week that he'd be surprised if Miller finishes anywhere but third, someone really spinned the lamestream media.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
DSCC have their own poll...
Hayes Research Group -

Joe is at 27.1
Scott is at 25.9
Write-in is at 25.3
Undecideds... 20%

Now I really put no weight into this one - what polls have tenth of percentages?  

But it just counteracts the Lisa internal release and the PPP release yesterday that had Miller out in front with 37, and McAdams and Murkowski tied at 30.  

Strategic voters should be flocking to McAdams, because Murkowski wins and it will be in the courts for months.  McAdams wins and it's over tomorrow night.  

[ Parent ]
20% undecided? Oh, suuuurrreeee......
You'd think maybe the undecideds are Democrats torn between Murkowski and McAdams. Except, there's a problem - Democrats won't even make up 20% of the damn vote!

The Ted Stevens Republicans, moderate Indies, and conservaDems are set on Murkowski, Miller has the Sarah Palin Republicans and conservative Indies, and McAdams has liberal Indies and moderate/liberal Democrats. Of that set of three, I'd surely most want Murkowski's group, then Miller's, then McAdams. Of course, throw Murkowski's write-in problem into the mix, and you've got a race between Miller and Murkowski. I just don't see how McAdams can pull this off. That is, unless he wins a MAJORITY of Independents. Not a plurality, a MAJORITY. 40% of Indies and 70% of Democrats won't cut it. Show me a poll which gives him 51% of Indies and 85% of Democrats and I'll consider predicting him.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Morgan Freeman: I did not record ad
Actor Morgan Freeman is denying that he provided the narration for a Republican candidate's political ad, saying that the campaign lied by claiming that he did.

"These people are lying," said Freeman in a statement sent to The Huffington Post. "I have never recorded any campaign ads for B.J. Lawson and I do not support his candidacy. And, no one who represents me ever has ever authorized the use of my name, voice or any other likeness in support of Mr. Lawson or his candidacy."

Lawson is running against Democratic incumbent Rep. David Price in North Carolina's fourth congressional district. The ad in question is titled, "What is David Price Afraid Of?"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

You don't mess with Morgan Freeman.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Dumb*#@$
I'm a Republican, but if you're going to pull this, you deserve to lose.  Oh well according to most forcasts my wish shall be granted. (Although my wanting him to lose because of his ethics my be more to do with the fact that he has virtually no shot.) /Looks away nervously after voting for Brad Zaun
[ Parent ]
hey Zaun voter
come enter Bleeding Heartland's Iowa election prediction contest!
[ Parent ]
I knew it
It's a shame that a campaign would tell such a lie.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
24 hours
until polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Ugh...
...my stomach is already churning from nervousness.  I had made peace with losing the house, but now there's talk about mega losses... ugh...
[ Parent ]
Stay strong...
There will be good news tomorrow night. I guarantee it. There will be bad news, but good things will happen too. Hopefully a lot of good things will happen.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Remember how, in the last week of the campaign
in 2008, the Democrats went up on the air in Georgia, Arizona, and one other state (maybe Alaska, or maybe Texas; I am not sure) because it looked like there was a chance that Obama could take them? There's always talk of things going much, much worse than they end up going for one side.

Which outfit in particular is talking up mega losses?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
To be fair
McCain won GA 52-47.  That was 6 points better for Obama than Kerry's 58-41 loss.  5 points is pushing polling margin of error.

It's not absolutely outrageous.

[ Parent ]
That's true.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
We'll get through it
I lived through '80 and '94.  Like glory, defeat is fleeting.
[ Parent ]
Nicely put!
As for tomorrow, it will be what it will be. Of that I'm certain.
[ Parent ]
every time
I can't believe there are places where polls close at 6 pm. That seems so disenfranchising for working people, especially if they have a long commute. If they try to vote before work and the line's too long, they are basically out of luck that year.

Iowa polls stay open until 9 pm, which is unusual. I think 8 pm is reasonable, but 6 pm is way too early.

[ Parent ]
Welcome to the land of disenfranchisement....
Indiana!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
And just as bad ....
... is something I've complained about here more than once -- the blue laws of this state prohibit the sale of alcohol while the polls are open!
[ Parent ]
Yeah really
In LA, its from 6 AM to 8 PM, plenty of time for anyone who wants to vote to vote, but 6 PM?  
[ Parent ]
A bit of good news in NC
As election day has neared, black voters have been turning out solidly.  As  of today's numbers, a black voter is 92.5% as likely to have voted as a white voter; middle of last week it was 75%.  If similar numbers hold up regionally it will be a boon to Dem chances.

Dem early vote has also held strong in NC.  They have a 10% edge over GOP, I think PPP predicted the final tally would be only 6%.

Does that mean we'll keep our NC house seats then?

[ Parent ]
Now for bad news...
Phones are mysteriously down in many Dem offices today.  Spread over many communities and even different phone companies - Huh.  

Just a coincidence I bet.  

[ Parent ]
Nevermind - NH not NC.
So good news for NC, bad news for NH.  
[ Parent ]
MI-01: Good News
After closing the gap over the summer and early fall, Gary McDowell of Michigan's 1st is polling over his Republican opponent for the first time in a new Mitchell Poll:

http://detnews.com/article/201...

Gary McDowell (D): 48%
Dan Benishek: 45%

It's looking like Dems may hold all of their seats here in Michigan.

Wait
The poll is showing Schauer (7th) and Peters (9th) behind.  That doesn't make sense.  All other polls show the flip: 7th and 8th Democratic holds and 1st flipping.  I don't know what to think, anymore.
[ Parent ]
Oh
Oh, I see.  For the congressional races it's basically a junk poll because they did micro sampling.  156 voters.  I can't believe I was getting excited. lol
[ Parent ]
Lee Fisher makes best of his $$$ situation with funny ad
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...
I was entertained.  
I loved that ad!
I wasn't too thrilled when he won the primary, but things would have probably turned out the same way. He's making me like him!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Not too shabby
I wonder how things would've turned out if his campaign had shown that kind of off-the-cuff, scrappy style a few months ago.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
It is a really great ad
While Ohio was always going to be really tough, I also wonder if Fisher really would have gone bulldog populist on Portman's DC ass.

On an off-topic note, Bob, do you think things would have been any better in the Senate race had Baron Hill been our nominee.  It couldn't have been any worse -- Ellsworth would have probably held his house seat, even in this environment, and while Baron would have had an uphill battle against Coats, I just think he would have been much more aggressive in going after him.

[ Parent ]
In retrospect? Yes.
Something I didn't think of at the time (whether anyone else did, I don't know) is when we were talking up how great a statewide candidate Ellsworth would be, we didn't consider that the guy had never really run a competitive race before. Hostettler was/is the biggest joke in Hoosier politics, or is at least in competition with Mike Sodrel and Dan Burton for that title, and reelection in '08 was a cakewalk. So Ellsworth really had no track record for running in even a semi-challenging race. We didn't really have any idea how this guy was going to do in the saddle, we just sort of tossed him on there thinking he'd be a natural.

Hill isn't as likable as Ellsworth, he has no 'outsider' cred, and nominating him almost certainly would have ceded his seat to the Republicans. With that said, Hill nearly beat Coats in a Senate election once already, and that was before becoming a serious, experienced campaigner. Hill's aggressive, hotheaded approach to campaigning probably would've worked decently against Coats too. You're right that it would have been uphill, but I think it might have gone better for us.

Of course, let's say we did nominate Hill and he ended up doing no better than Ellsworth has done. We'd probably be having the same conversation, except in reverse, wondering about the supposed statewide strength of Brad Ellsworth and bemoaning Baron Hill's ineffectiveness. ;)

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Anyone
going to election night parties? I have come to the decision to be anti social and watch results at home instead of going to any. I had a number I could have attended but I want to be near CNN and both of my computers. I'll have my home computer and laptop set up and I'll be switching from CNN to MSNBC and I'll even have my radio on to a local station to get local returns. I may swing by the local D headquarters for a couple of minutes just to say hi to some friends and family. Gonna be a fun night. How late to you guys plan on staying up till? I went to bed early last election. On most nights I usually stay up until 12-1 so 3 would be easy enough and I might even pull an all nighter, I don't know if I can at my age but I'll might try. What's the worst I can do to someone? They can always get dentures if I screw up. That's a joke by the way. Us dental professionals try to be funny sometimes, humor us. Also do you guys update results on twitter and F book if (more like when from what I have heard) the site crashes.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Never!
First of all, nothing to party about this year.  Secondly, I'll be glued to my computer screen seeing what can be salvaged.  The idea of being anywhere other than in front of a computer screen or TV screen isolated from the rest of the world on election night is the sort of thing I wake up screaming about (and I literally have had nightmares about missing out on election night coverage!!!)
[ Parent ]
There
will be some happy election night parties. I bet Carney, Seals, Richmond and Hannabusa's parties will be fun.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I was at the '06 Seals party
It was rather bittersweet--the results started coming in and they did not look good for Seals, but they looked good for other Democrats around the country. I had school the next day so I left right as CNN called the House for the Democrats. I imagine the roles will be reversed tomorrow night.
[ Parent ]
this
I'll be in my cave with multiple windows open on my computer hitting F5 over and over again, with probably CNN in the background.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Sounds like me
With a bottle of Seagram's near me.
[ Parent ]
I'm
cracking open my best scotch. If I start typing profanities then it probably means I'm drunk blogging.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I'm A Tee-Totaler......
....meaning that me and Harry Reid could both be suffering through tomorrow night alcohol-free.
[ Parent ]
And I Plan To Stay Up Until 7 a.m......
....as I do every election night.  Usually at that point every race that's gonna be called is and 99% of ballots have been counted just about everywhere.  Then I go to bed, wake up at noon, and get right back to the grid.
[ Parent ]
What time zone are you talking about? I assume you are talking about Central Time Zone... (or is your part of Indiana in EST?)
you might miss CA if its 12!!! It's nice living on the West Coast because we get results starting at 2:00 (exit Polls), 3:00 (Indiana, Kentucky) and 10:00 (Alaska)  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I want to go home! :'(
And interestingly, my hometown is in CA-26! (Rancho Cucamonga)

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I'll be having a little party
with my boyfriend in our apartment in front of our computers reloading the election returns page like crazy! We will also be listening to election coverage on NPR.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Oh
and because I am obliged to watch California returns, I'll be up until some ungodly hour, say 4 or 5 AM. Good thing I don't have class on Wednesdays!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Here's a fun article on MN election night reporting
It is about St. Louis County and it's notoriously late reporting of election results. The county contains the city of Duluth and the majority of the Iron Range and is the 2nd largest in the county in the country and has as many precincts as Ramsey County which contains St. Paul and  some suburbs.  The city of Duluth reports all its precincts in one big chunk and the rural counties do a lot of the vote counting by hand.

This is one good thing to remember on election night as this county helped Dayton late into the night in the primary and it consistently gives DFLers 65%.  Kerry, Hatch (Gov 2006), and Obama all got 65% which is extremely consistent considering both the statewide shifts and the candidate appeals.

Even with Horner getting something like 15%, Dayton can certainly maintain this 65% considering his Lt Gov candidate is a state senator from Duluth, the DFL base turning out since it's been 20 years, and the top issue for Greater Minnesota is local government aid cuts and Emmer will slash the shit out of them while Dayton will re-instore every penny.

Read That This Morning.....
...but what the article didn't say is that most of the late-breaking St. Louis County precincts are the unorganized precincts in the county's far north side that are about 50-50 if not leaning narrowly Republican.  And I suspect one of the reasons these precincts are the very last to report is that they have the oldest and most rudimentary voting equipment and counting methods.  There's always a few stray Duluth and Iron Range precincts that don't report until 2 a.m. but it hardly qualifies as the kind of conspiracy that the article's authors and especially some of the commenters were inferring.

And one major correction from the article.  St. Louis County, MN, isn't even close to being the second-largest county in the nation area-wise.  It wouldn't even be in the top-25.  Take a look at a map of the western counties.  San Bernardino County, California, is more than three times the size of St. Louis County, MN, while both Coconino County, Arizona, and Nye County, Nevada are well over twice the size.  And that's just scratching the surface.

[ Parent ]
There are only 9 McCain precincts
in that northern portion so it doesn't account for much.
[ Parent ]
Obama Did Surprisingly Well In The Northern St. Louis County Precincts.....
....considering he underperformed Kerry in the Iron Range proper.  Whatever the case, the vast majority of St. Louis County precincts are in before midnight so I think the Star Tribune story was, for the most part, much adieu about nothing.
[ Parent ]
Interestingly
California has both the largest county by area (San Bernardino) and the largest county by population (Los Angeles obviously, with 10 million). That's right, more people live in L.A County than in any individual county in NYC (where each borough corresponds to one county with the most populous being around just 2 million) and Chicago (Cook, about 5 million)!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Nor more polls?
What will we do?  
Exit polls
Around what time do they come out?  
I'm not sure...
but I wonder: Do exit polls matter anymore? For instance, take Nevada. Almost two-thirds of voters there have already cast their ballots. How much can exit polls tell us?
[ Parent ]
Exit polls come out between
4pm-6pm EST. I remember on CNN in 2008, "The Situation Room w/Wolf Blitzer" aired before the election coverage and they had exit polls from Bill Schneider (this year I think Ali Velshi is doing it ... unfortunately) in the 5:00 hour definitely.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
They start leaking around 5pm
But we won't see more 'official' versions before polls close. That's when they go up on CNN's website.

Twitter.com/Taniel
[ Parent ]
I'll be flocking to the Connecticut/West Virginia exit polls first
If Blumenthal can't get an automatic call, that might spell doom for Malloy. I wanna see how large the gender gap is between Blumenthal/McMahon (is it really 20%+?), and if McMahon can score any more than a low single-digit lead with Indies. My hunch is she'll lead around 54-46 with men, he'll be up 58-42 with women, and she'll have a 52-48 advantage with Indies. That might be enough to suffice "too early to call."

Likewise, if Manchin can get anything better than "too close to call," this should be a survivable night for Dems. Watch to see how many Dems Raese siphons-off - 15-20% means a barn burner. More than 20%, edge Raese, Less than 15%, edge Manchin. If Raese can't break 10% with Dems, Manchin will get a double-digit victory.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
PPP had Raese
At 24% Dems, but Manchin was also winning 19% of Reps.  
[ Parent ]
So
They assign ratings to races based on exit polls?
[ Parent ]
It's highly unlikely a race like WV...
... will be called as polls close.

Races are often not called immediately even if the eventual victor wins by 10% or so. Just look at VA in 2008. It closes at 7pm, Obama won it by more than he did OH, but it wasn't called until 11pm I believe.

Twitter.com/Taniel

[ Parent ]
Not After The 2000 Debacle......
....those of us who know the conventional baselines should be able to tell after a small percentage of the vote comes in where the race is likely going but the media won't call it until the winner is obvious.  Expect Rand Paul to win by double digits tomorrow night but it'll be at least 8:30 eastern before the race is officially called.  Remember in 2006 it was almost an hour before they called Pennsylvania for Casey over Santorum despite the 18-point blowout.  That's how conservative they've gotten.

As for Virginia in 2008, the networks called that late because northern Virginia comes in last and the race was still tied with 75% of the vote in at like 10:30.

[ Parent ]
In all fairness re: Virginia
The networks put VA in "too early" territory, based on exit polling. The first returns showed McCain up double-digits, and, by the 20% reporting mark, with McCain still leading strong, the networks flipped to "too close." It only took so long to call b/c the Obama strongholds didn't report until 60-70% of the vote were in.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Exit Polls
I avoid exit polls like the plague.  I'm kind of silly that way, the same way I won't early vote.  It's like peeking at your Christmas present.  I like seeing the numbers as they come in, not before.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
This is my first election with exit polls
I can't wait, so I'll look! I agree on early voting though.  
[ Parent ]
Anybody feel like 2008 was a major phyrric victory?
Winning the 2008 Presidential election is probably the reason Democrats will probably lose 60 something seats this year.  It would have been smarter for Democrats just to let McCain win in 2008 and take the blame for the unfixable economic crisis and then work to gain a veto proof majority in 2010.  

Now we are basically stuck in vicious cycle of defeat at the Congressional level.  

No offense intended,
but are you Jacksby?
[ Parent ]
No, Im not
Ive been reading the blog occasionally for the last several months.  
[ Parent ]
2008
Same as 1992.  But if you follow that logic, you'll never win the presidency.  The problem is the Democrats' inability to govern effectively politically when they have the presidency, not winning it.
[ Parent ]
Economy was far different in 1992
The economy was already on its way back in 1992 and by late 1993, was in pretty darn good shape.  
[ Parent ]
And then came the loss of the senate and the house in 1994

[ Parent ]
correct
Although if we weren't facing giant problems, Obama's steady as she go approach would seem appropriate and would have came with steady as she go results.
[ Parent ]
This isn't the place to reply to this
but I'm going to anyway.

If Obama didn't win in 2008, we'd have no stimulus, no health care bill, no financial regulation, no end of combat missions in Iraq, no Nuclear START treaty with Russia, no appointment of Sotomayor or Kagen, and lots of other accomplishments.

Governance means governing even under hard times, when the voters don't care how much you tried, and in how much (at least in your opinion) that you have done, and how much better it is that you are running the country (than the other party).

The fact of the matter is that Republicans winning in 2010 may set them up for a decade in Congress, but it just as easily could shift back to Democrats in 2012 and 2016.  

[ Parent ]
Policy outcomes matter too, you know
Let's say McCain were President right now. A McCain win probably means no big Obama coattails, so Democrats go into this cycle with fewer seats than real-life -- perhaps about 245 seats in the House and 57-58 Senate seats. They proceed to pick up another 25-35, giving them a majority of between 270-280 seats in the House and 65 in the Senate.

There's no guarantee those gains would all hold in 2012, though. In 1960, for example, Democrats LOST 20 seats because they were so overextended after 1958. So we may well have wound up with similar majorities to what we had from '09-'11.

And, frankly, policy matters too. With McCain in the WH, we'd have a smaller stimulus, might not have saved GM, wouldn't have passed HCR, would have had weaker financial reforms, plus, oh probably a third war (with Iran).

So if a Democrat - say Hillary Clinton - wins in 2012, they're stuck with a FAR WORSE MESS than what Obama inherited, real-life, in 2009. Maybe the economy has recovered compared to actual 2010 conditions, but with an even greater fall, we're not in a good situation by any stretch. And we have to deal with a health care system that's even more broken, higher unemployment, another foreign crisis, and a host of other unresolved issues.

All of which would just again be a recipe for a big loss in 2014.

[ Parent ]
The gains probably would have held
Because Democrats would control redistricting in most states.  I just dont see anyway Democrats get out of this downward spiral this time, especially with Republicans in control of redistricting in most states.  
[ Parent ]
If I am reading you correctly,
it sounds like you are predicting that redistricting keeps the House out of the hands of Democrats for a long time. What makes you think that, specifically?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Republican control of the process in most states
That will really hurt Democrats long term.  
[ Parent ]
You do sound like Jacksby
And Dave6750 and Eric31185, two other users who were banned this weekend and were probably Jacksby as well.

I apologize if I am wrong about this--I hope that Jacksby is gone for good.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I've
I've no idea why the same user keeps coming back and doing the same things that got them banned, but you think he'd learn to change the format of his posts, wouldn't you?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Let's not forget
Obama has put in two liberals in the Supreme Court.  Elections do matter :)
[ Parent ]
Presidency matters more than Congress
simple fact.
[ Parent ]
Tell that to Bill Clinton in the 1990's
When Gingrich and Congress ran the show.  
[ Parent ]
Actually Clinton Used The Gingrich Congress.....
....as his doormat just as Bush used the Pelosi Congress as a a doormat for two years.

If you persistently lose the Presidency, you never get to make Supreme Court appointments, meaning your agenda will be ruled unconstitutional by a 9-0 margin no matter what a progressive Congressional majority may pass.  Sorry, but this isn't even a close call.

[ Parent ]
no

The voters stuck the Party with a sufficient number of new conservative Democrats in 2006 to ensure only very moderate bills got through.  Added on some more in '08 to make sure of it.

I'm becoming a believer in an 8 year two party cycle in Congress.  1998/2000 fell short for Democrats in the House, but otherwise it's been a consistent pattern since 1990.


[ Parent ]
I
heard an interesting radio ad today. It was by the American service workers I think. It literally used the word tea bagger. It was SUPERB. It started out with a speech by a Sarah Palin impersonator who was saying something like "let's take our government back". Then it said something like "Things like that are catchy but do you really want bumper sticker solutions for the serious problems we face?". It listed accomplishments that had been done and the extreme points of the tea party and it was very good and positive despite going negative. It was the best ad I heard all cycle. I could not find it. Anyone who can post it gets some brownie points from me.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Stu Rothenberg moves WA-Sen to pure tossup
Not so good... So, what does Charlie cook know that Rothie doesn't?  Cook confirmed today that he still thinks Murray will win.
Remember . . .
Washington is not enough for the GOP.  To win the Senate, the GOP needs to win Washington AND West Virginia PLUS avoid any losses in Alaska, Nevada, Illinois and Colorado.  

And based on Rasmussen and PPP, West Virginia looks like a relatively solid Manchin win.  

So, it is not necessarily a matter of Cook knowing something that Rothenberg doesn't.  Rossi could win Washington (unlikely) and Cook's prediction of a Dem Senate would in all likelihood remain correct.  

The GOP has a huge mountain to climb to win the Senate.  

[ Parent ]
50-50 is not winning...
Lieberman will jump.  Really, the only safe bet is 52 seats, so no one else will try to switch sides.

Cook is predicting at least 51, BTW, so unless someone else wins in her place (c'mon Reid!), then Cook will be wrong.

He was on TV this morning absolutely confident about Murray and dismissed the PPP poll overnight.

[ Parent ]
Lieberman is not going to switch.
He is most concerned with keeping the chairman of the Homeland Security Committee or getting some kind of foreign affairs committee.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
what if he sees the writing on the wall
a la Specter and Crist?  Can't wait to see him go down regardless.
[ Parent ]
Yeah...
I just hope Ned Lamont is not back.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
How about...
How about Lamont Sanford?  (Sorry the 'Grady' in your name; I just couldn't resist.)

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
The GOP will give it to him...
...and anything else he wants.  They won't have squabbling over seniority like the dems did with Specter.  They've done it before.  When Shelby switched after 1994, they gave him lots of goodies.  All the GOP leadership craves is power.  Everyone else is expected to fall in line.
[ Parent ]
I don't know...
maybe McCain would step away from Defense since they are friends, but I can't imagine Lugar or Collins doing the same.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
But what would Lieberman get?
A sure loss in the primary and/or general.

Unless he's retiring, he's not switching. (And his lack of endorsements this election cycle suggests he's not planning on going Republican anytime soon.)

[ Parent ]
If Cook is that confident of Murray, that puts me at ease......
Of course in reality I'll still be nervous until we know she's won.  I'm like that in every race, every election, no matter what.

But if Cook is THAT confident, I think Murray has won.  I don't remember Cook ever going out on a limb on a particular race right before election day and being wrong.  He's very cautious about his calls, he rarely goes out on a limb.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I only rely on Cook
for House forecasts.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I guess the key is to look at King County....
...after the first day's results (yes, this may take weeks--they expect to have half the votes counted in King by the end of tomorrow).  If Rossi is under 40% in King, then basically Murray wins.
[ Parent ]
Cook saw all the published polls we all did and the internals from
both the RSCC and the DSCC. There are more than a few Republicans in Washington quietly saying Murray has it and I suspect that is because the RSCC and DSCC poll results match.
[ Parent ]
Bit of a pet peeve of mine, and I hope you don't mind but...
It's the NRSC (and the NRCC), I think they both used to be called the RSCC and RCCC but were reorganized within the last ten years or so.

It's the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Nate Silver: Dems to hold House!
OK, it's just one of two unlikely outside scenarios, but I say we embrace it - for tonight anyway. :)

A scenario [of Democrats holding the House] is possible tomorrow - not particularly likely, but possible, just as a 77-seat Republican gain is possible. It's probably a somewhat greater possibility than people realize. Here are five reasons Democrats could outperform their polls and beat consensus expectations.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

His look at the Gallup methodology is fascinating. Definitely worth a read.

Go cell phones!
It was an interesting read.
[ Parent ]
It's a fun read for a Democrat, but both his "extreme outcome" pieces left me bored......
The problem is, both were waaaaaay too over the top to hold my interest.  I realize ultimately he's guessing at what the outer edges of shock results might look like, but I felt like he went beyond the outer edges in both write-ups.  And so I could take neither seriously.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I'll come back to read that
if it happens.
[ Parent ]
This
is disgusting. Someone put up a sign reading "Vote American Vote Pompeo". Pompeo's opponent is Indian American, though born in Cleveland Ohio.
http://blogs.pitch.com/plog/20...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
As much as I'm rooting for the Giants
I hope there's a game 6.... it'll be nice to have something to look forward to.

(and if a miracle happens, it would also be an easy transition back to regular life)

Last Nevada Early Voting post (promise)
The Nevada SOS finally has posted the final Early Voting totals by Party.

http://nvsos.gov/index.aspx?pa...

Dems 162,801 (42.87%)
Reps 156,624 (41.24%)
Other 60,691 (15.98%)

They also have the total mail in votes through last Friday but not broken by party.

http://nvsos.gov/index.aspx?pa...

The Las Vegas Review Journal does have the 2 party breakdown for Clark, Washoe, Douglas counties plus Carson City (about 87% of the Absentees returned).

Dems 21,506 (51.19%)
Reps 20,505 (48.81%)

The remaining absentees are from very Republican parts of the state so at best the Dems are probably are tied in total absentee voting. That's not really bad news though because normally Republicans dominate mail in voting in Nevada.

Total turnout through last Friday was 433,000 voters, 38.66% of registered voters. Total turnout is expected between 60-65% registered voters so almost 2/3rds of the total vote has already been cast.

What does it mean? Well I really don't know other than things look like they will be real real close.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

We just don't know...
The $64 is Angle's margin with Independents.  That's going to be the decisive factor.  This Ralston character knows no more about that than any of us here.  All we can do is watch and wait at this point.
[ Parent ]
We also don't know the GOP crossover
vote for Reid. Considering Reid's prominent GOP endorsements, he is likely to get a much bigger % of crossover votes than Angle will get from Democrats.

There is also the teaparty spoiler and the "none of the above" option.  

[ Parent ]
I keep running into more here...
And I hardly ever find any "Democrats for Angle". There's no way in hell there's anything close to equal amounts of crossover.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
PPP poll
Showed Angle with 15% of Dems and Reid with 15% of Reps.  
[ Parent ]
Heh
if I lived in Nevada I would write in Lizard People for the lolz.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Even good pollsters have bad days...
I'm not seeing anywhere near 15% of Dems bolt for Angle. And while I have my doubts as to whether Reid can win 15% of Reeps, I do suspect it's in the low double digits.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Actually, no, there are TWO decisive factors......
It's Angle's indy margin, yes, but also Reid's crossover margin.  He will have more than her, but how much more, and will it make up for her indy margin?

Regarding Ralston's information, the only information he'd have about these margins would be based on campaign polling information shared with him off the record.

Keep in mind campaigns oversample groups of particular interest.  I'm sure the Reid campaign has been oversampling indies and also Republicans, and maybe even Republicans in specific areas of the state.  Ralston wrote in one recent blog post that "Democrats are confident" that Angle is "losing her base in northern Nevada."  I read that and immediately thought Dem polling has have oversampled GOP voters, maybe even in a specific part of state.

Reid always had the cash to poll liberally, doing any iteration he wanted.  Polls are expensive, but in the magnitude of thousands for a poll, not tens of thousands, and he easily could have blown several hundred thousand for a year's worth of Cadillac-quality polling with oversamples of everything he wanted as much as he wanted.

It's nice to have money when you're running for office......as long as you know how to spend it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Its still a crapshoot..
I dunno.  Maybe you're right that Reid will get more crossover support than Angle, but that's far from a sure thing.  My guess is that crossovers cancel out.  I remember anecdotally hearing about "Republicans for Kerry" - but Bush won more crossover Democrats than Kerry did Republicans in 2004.

In the PPP poll just released Angle is getting support from 15 percent of Obama voters, while Reid only gets 10 percent of McCain voters.  In the crosstabs 1 percent of Obama voters are going to vote "none of the above" while the number for McCain voters is (supposedly) zero.

I do think that a) Reid is probably slightly behind and b) he has better organization.  

Right now I would call it a pure coin flip.

[ Parent ]
Forget PPP crosstabs, crosstabs are almost always unreliable......
Crosstabs are unreliable because subsamples have sky high margins of error.

One mistake Ralston actually makes in criticizing public polls is to rely on crosstabs that look wrong to him.  Well, they probably are wrong, but they don't undermine the statistical validity of the toplines.  That doesn't mean the toplines are right, they still could be wrong due to sampling problems, but the crosstabs don't undermine them.

The CW, what the campaigns expect, is for Reid to get a lot more crossovers than Angle.

And Kerry/Bush is not a valid comparison.  Neither candidate was toxic like Angle is.  Democrats in Nevada aren't voting for someone like Angle, but there are Republicans who hate Angle and are scared of her.  She is scary, he is not.

It's no small thing that there is a LARGE group of establishment Republican figures sticking their necks out publicly for Reid, but NO Democrat has come forward for Angle.  What's normal is for both sides to have some token crossover endorsements that cancel out.  That's not the case here, not even close.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Umm, yes, he probably does...
This Ralston character knows no more about that than any of us here.

Remember, he sees the private polls that you often can't. And his track record on Nevada elections is much longer and more storied than Nate Silver's.

And before anyone calls me his biggest fan or Ralston some "Dem lackey", I should point out that neither is true. Just look at his comments on other state races to see his contempt for many other Dem pols. And his sometimes arrogant and dismissive replies to me on Twitter have really gotten to my nerves. And I've often been frustrated by his focus on petty politics over good policy discussion.

But hey, no one can deny Ralston is THE expert on Nevada politics. And if he says the public polling is off, then the public polling is probably off.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I'm starting to wonder, though...
...if he's getting too close to Reid's people who are convinced that they are winning.  There was a good article on Politico from some other Nevada pols talking about how Angle tends to surprise and do better than her polls on election day, but that the Reid camp is so convinced that their polls are right, that they won't even consider anything else.
[ Parent ]
Angle has only run for local elections
previously. This is a completely different ballgame.
[ Parent ]
It's Politico...
Need I say more?

And Angle has NEVER run statewide before. What Bobby Uithoven (who, btw, is a GOP consultant who ran Sue Lowden's campaign into the ground earlier this year) forgot to mention was that Angle's "surprising strength" was in GOP primaries in strongly GOP districts. She's NEVER run any type of campaign south of Lincoln County before.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Of course, the one exception...
Was the NV-Sen GOP primary this year. And of course Bobby Uithoven was "surprised" because the craptastic excuse of Lowden's "field campaign" was overwhelmed by "tea party" groups running IE operations for Angle.

The difference in the general election is that Angle has these IE's doing field on behalf of her, but Reid has his own powerful GOTV operation PLUS the unions doing their own GOTV operation PLUS organizations like Patriot Majority and League of Conservation Voters doing their own GOTV.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Amen, atd!
Just wanted to thank you for all your hard work, and encourage you to DRAG every last Reid vote to the polls tomorrow. This one could come down to individual votes. You, personally, could make the difference.
[ Parent ]
You don't think I've been thinking of this?
This one could come down to individual votes. You, personally, could make the difference.

My legs are sore right now. I've lost count of how many times I've lost my voice in the last 6 months. And in these last two weeks, I've lost whatever I had of a personal/social life.

I want to wake up Wednesday and have no regrets... And it will be nice to prove the DC pundits wrong. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Thank you for your service!
I mean it!  You're the one who could be the difference maker in this election.

Thank you!

[ Parent ]
Thanks, Mike...
And btw, it's not just moi. There are many more here who have also been working their tails off. That's what the Angle campaign didn't plan for. :-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
If
If Reid loses, I will have a lot of sympathetic feelings for you.  I know how sucky it is to lose a race that you feel strongly about (plus, I have no love, or even like, of Angle) but I will enjoy Ralston being wrong because he's just so darn arrogant.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I'd agree with you...
Except that of all the Republicans I respect, Sharrrrrrrrrrrrron will NEVER be on that list. I can't wait to see if I can prove Ralston UNDERestimated Reid's margin of victory. ;-)

And when it comes to Ralston's attitude, I'll save his crow for NV-03. I have a feeling he'll be huffing and puffing if Dina Titus proves him wrong yet again. (In 2006, Ralston infamously declared Dina "dead" politically after she narrowly lost NV-Gov. In 2008, he had to eat his words when she won her first term to Congress in NV-03.)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Exactly
I want Reid to lose, but I certainly won't be sad to see Angle lose. Agree with you on Ralston too. Tomorrow night, I will not be here to gloat. If I feel the urge to scream or gloat, I will go to twitter. I know how emotional tomorrow night will be for a lot of people, so, I ask my Republican friends, please be respectful here tomorrow night and ONLY offer analysis of results/races. Gloating is for Republican communities (which we hope to have after the election)  
[ Parent ]
Never
I'd never come here to gloat.  If I wanted to do that, I'd be more likely to sneak over to Kos :) but even that would be mean.  I don't understand why some people can't be happy for themselves without reveling in other people's disappointment.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I don't expect to be here for most of tomorrow night
I'll be watching the results with other Republicans and won't have time to be commenting anywhere--probably just looking at Politico. I might come here late night for Alaska, because you folks know the intricacies of that race better than anyone else.

Of course, I'd never gloat here. Aside from gloating=banned, it just wouldn't be a polite thing to do given the mission and overall membership makeup of SSP. Like I've said, I always try to act as the "loyal opposition" rather than any cheerleader, and any pro-GOP tone in my posts is due to my natural point of view rather than any conscious decisions.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Not liking these numbers.
Angle is going to clean up with indies.  
[ Parent ]
Depends
I think Reid's ceiling with Indies is 42%. The challenge for Angle is keeping the Ashjian/Other/None crowd as minimal as possible. For my money, she should feel victorious for breaking the 50% mark.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Funny tweet from Anthony Weiner
"Look for me. I'm the only Weiner on the ballot. Uh, nevermind. Just vote. Thanks!"

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Hahaha
The future mayor of New York City, people

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Record turnout expected in WA tomorrow...
SoS expects 66% turnout, highest since 1970 for a midterm.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.c...

I have to imagine that's good for us, right?

If you can't tell already, I really don't like Dino Rossi...

I would think high turnout would be good for us
in blue states like WA. However, I am trying to avoid setting myself up for another 2004 election night.  
[ Parent ]
High turnout was GREAT for us in the MA-Sen special!...er, except that it meant...
...indies showed up in droves to vote for Scott Brown.

So no, record high turnout is not UNambiguously good for us.

It could mean Democratic turnout mirrors the advantage among all voters, and unlike Coakley in January, Murray is not going to bleed Democrats.

Or it could mean large number of indies vote, and vote for Rossi.

We just don't know.

But 66% of all eligible adults (assuming it's that, rather than 66% of registered voters which actually is less impressive) is Presidential-level turnout in most places......maybe even in Washington!  And that SHOULD bode well for us.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Would you mind
elaborating a little? Your statements seem to contradict each other.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Yes they do. I'm saying that high turnout can break either way, not necessarily...
...toward Murray.  I do think 66% turnout more likely helps Murray than hurts her because it suggests a favorable turnout model.  But it could instead forecast a turnout model with an outsized indy vote, which hurts more.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
The difference
Is that in MA, Indies outnumber Republicans and Democrats. In WA, Democrats outnumber Republicans and Indies.  
[ Parent ]
Fair point, and hopefully a decisive one. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Yes, for all the talk of...
"independent spirit" out here, there aren't as many Indies in Western states as there are in New England states like Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Connecticut (especially MA, where registered Indies outnumber BOTH parties!).

And since Indie turnout is typically lower in midterms than Presidential years, I'm having a hard time seeing "outsized performance" among these often fickle voters.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
What do you make of the early voting numbers?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That'd top MN if we maintain our 2006 number of 60%

[ Parent ]
On Rachel's show tonight there was a comment on the
scroll saying only 8% of registered young voters are expected to vote. Does that seem right?

Also, the Hispanic turnout is up in early voting. Via Google::

We worked hard and made a major effort to reach out to Latinos. We contacted four times more Latino voters that we did in 2006," President Barack Obama's senior political adviser David Axelrod told Hispanic media in a telephone interview.

He said Latinos had cast 660,000 votes so far in early ballots ahead of Tuesday's mid-term elections -- 13 percent more than the early voting total for the 2006 mid-terms -- a number he called "very encouraging."

"If early vote is a trend you're going to see a good outcome in Nevada, California, Colorado," western states home to particularly tight and hard-fought contests, including in Nevada between Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Sharron Angle, a Republican.


I like
The one problem I think is targeting young voters.  I wonder what sort of the on the ground game is going on as in 2006 I worked til 9am even because a polling place was open extra late for legal reasons, 2008 we all quit at 7pm because we were just simply done and we talked to everyone in our voter base.

College students are tricky as they are quite busy, move around a lot, but they do maintain the same cell phone numbers generally and fbook is an obvious route to keep people in touch.

[ Parent ]
Are there
any reasons why would there would be a strong movement of at least ten points towards the Republicans by Hispanics?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Giants
just clinched the World Series! The last time they won one was in 1954 when they were in New York. At least I'll feel happy because tomorrow night I'll feel sad.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Look
Look on the bright side - if the Dems manage to somehow save the house, that will be considered the sign from above that it was about to happen!

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
You are kind, Zornoph...
Thanks for that message of affirmation and possibility.
[ Parent ]
Haha
this is one tweet I can agree with Ahnold.

Congrats, Giants! CA beat Texas today and CA will beat Texas oil companies' ploy to undo our clean energy laws tmrw by rejecting Prop23.

http://twitter.com/Schwarzeneg...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Ahnold for prez-eee-dent! :) n/t

[ Parent ]
I hope
that the excitement over the Giants' win will motivate voters, especially in NorCal, to go vote. I bet many Dems there will be supereager to "beat Texas" again.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Yeah, they beat the Indians back then...
Maybe, you've removed the dreaded curse... nah... not with the current owner.

Congrats!  I never realized it had been this long.  I could have sworn you'd won a championship sometime on the bay.

[ Parent ]
Pity Me
I root for the Seattle Mariners (despite where I live) and they've never even gone to the World Series!  

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Yeah Giants
 Someone I know viewed it as a battle between George W. Bush and Nancy Pelosi.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Blue State Routs Red State 4-1....
....a metaphor for an 80-20 Democratic advantage tomorrow?
[ Parent ]
I hope.
At the very least I hope it helps bring a Dem surge in California with results that will make my night even if we get clobbered in the East and Midwest.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Marsha Blackburn
is on The Last Word. This is what were moving to in the house. From Nancy Pelosi to Marsha Marsha Marsha.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
What are you specifically referring to?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Just the normal bull@#$!
Sorry this probably isn't appropriate in anyway for this site. I just needed that one moment to vent about what's about to happen.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I just watched it.  I thought Lawrence was a bit hard on her for very little reason.  I think folks like her truly believe what they do about job creation (i.e. that cutting taxes and freezing spending magically creates jobs).  It's like the tale of the underpants gnomes.  You go from A...to C, totally leaving out B.
[ Parent ]
Republicans complained
 In 2008 that Obama had no substance in his calls for hope and change. Still, the teabaggers will not tell me how they will get us out of this mess.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Most Of Them Couldn't Care Less.....
.....about how we get out of the mess.  All they care about is not having to pay higher taxes and keeping the brown people in line.  And the few who genuinely do care about fixing the budget for their grandchildren are championing ads blasting the Democrats for "cutting $500 billion in Medicare".  Show me a member of the Tea Party with a serious policy agenda and I'll show you my back-to-back holes-in-one on the golf course I've never set foot on.
[ Parent ]
The
thing is, the Tea Partiers with some sort of agenda is really batshit insane, see Joe Miller for example.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
She deserved the response she got
He asked for ways the GOP congress would create jobs, and she named none.  Extend the Bush tax cuts?  A government hiring freeze?  What a joke.
[ Parent ]
Boehner
supposedly said the Republicans want to cut spending, except for defense, education, Social Security, and Medicare--i.e. the majority of the federal budget. He's like a person saying he wants to fix his diet but one who says his intake of carbohydrates, protein, dairy, fats, and vitamins won't change, and only fiber and minerals will. Yet, he's taken seriously. It's quite incredible.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Carl
Paladino gets shitfaced on Halloween. Can't blame him, seeing how Cuomo's going to blow him back to the stone age on Tuesday.

http://wnymedia.net/smith/2010...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Monday Poll Dump | 332 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox