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SSP Daily Digest: 11/1 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Nov 01, 2010 at 8:08 AM EDT


Another huge batch of polls to tide you over until tomorrow.

  • CA-Sen

  • DE-Sen (PDF)

  • DE-AL (x2)

  • FL-Sen (Mason-Dixon)

  • FL-Sen (Susquehanna)

  • KS-Sen

  • KS-Gov

  • KS-04

  • MA-Gov

  • MI-09

  • MN-08

  • MN-Gov

  • MO-Sen (PDF)

  • MO-04 (PDF)

  • MO-07 (PDF)

  • NV-Sen

  • NY-19

  • OH-Gov

  • OR-Gov

  • PA-Sen (PPP)

  • PA-Sen (Muhlenberg)

  • PA-Gov (Muhlenberg)

  • RI-02

  • TX-Gov (PDF)

  • WA-Sen (Washington Poll)

  • WA-Sen (SUSA)

  • WI-Sen

  • WI-Sen (PDF)

  • WI-Gov (PDF)

    • Bonus: Siena has four new NY state senate polls out (PDF):

    SD-03: Brian Foley (D-inc) 37, Lee Zeldin (R) 53
    SD-40: Michael Kaplowitz (D) 44, Greg Ball (R) 49
    SD-48: Darrel Aubertine (D-inc) 43, Patty Ritchie (R) 47
    SD-58: Tim Kennedy (D) 45, Jack Quinn (R) 39, William Stachowski (WFP/I) 9

    Note that Stachowski is the incumbent, but lost the Dem primary to Kennedy.
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 11/1 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 11/1 (Morning Edition) | 253 comments
    Q polls
    Sink 44 Scott 43

    Rubio 45 Crist 31 Meek 18

    http://www.tallahassee.com/art...

    Blumenthal 53 McMahon 44

    Foley 48  Malloy 45

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128...

    Toomey 50  Sestak 45

    Corbett 52  Onorato 42

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128...

    Wow, that's 2 11th-hour polls showing Malloy down 3......
    He might very well be on the way to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

    This is a downer for me simply from the numerical/bragging perspective, as I don't live in CT to HAVE to care about who is Governor; CT remains plenty blue regardless of this outcome; and there's not any Congressional redistricting implications with an all-Dem delegation already.  There's plenty for me to get down about without crying over this one, if Malloy loses.  Still, it's a Governor takeaway we expected to get, and that makes it hurt a little if we don't.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    The trend is with Foley
    Clearly.  I'm going to have to pick him.
    [ Parent ]
    Selfish
    but I would give up a lot of seats of all kinds all over the country in exchange for Rick Scott not being my governor.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    This one is tough
    Both my head and my gut are telling me Scott, because of Florida's Republican lean.  But I'm still not convinced because most of these late polls are giving Sink a slight lead.
    [ Parent ]
    FL
    Direct link here.  Polling started last Monday and ended yesterday, so I'm not surprised that the D split on Crist/Meek isn't appreciably different than it's been lately -- i.e., not timed to capture any post-Clinton fallout, if any.
    [ Parent ]
    So, I take it their prior FL-Sen poll (w/ Crist surging) was just a fluke
    Looks like Toomey's headed for a modest 4-5% win. Foley appears to be dragging McMahon into single-digit territory. With strong GOTV, she might be able to pull to within 7%.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    Yea
    Crist was never surging and in the last few days, he's come across as something of a weirdo.  

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Other way around
    McMahon is the one spending millions of dollars on GOP GOTV to get more Republican voters to the polls. That is helping Foley. If he pulls off an upset and wins he will owe a big assist to McMahon.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    NV-Sen: PPP says Reid down 47-46 in all-candidate ballot test, up 49-48 in 2-way......
    The toplines are credible, the big thing validating that being that they have Rory Reid losing by "just" 11.  Jon Ralston has indicated that one indicator of poor public polling recently in Nevada has been some polls showing Sandoval up by 20-25 points, when all private polling on both sides shows the race in the low double-digits.  So PPP is on the mark that way.  And of course the one-point race, going either way, is consistent with what Ralston suggests is going on.

    But one weird wrinkle that is clearly wrong:  PPP has a sample that is a whopping 20% Hispanic.  That's just plain wrong.  Ralston indicated early voting was just over 11% Hispanic, that the Democrats' goal was 12%, and that Hispanics tend to wait to election day so there's a possibility of that vote share ticking up on Tuesday.  But it was 15% in exit polling in 2008, and that was a record high.  No one thinks it could go as high as 20%.

    I suspect ultimately the toplines could be right, but the electorate won't look like that.  I looked at the racial crosstabs, but racial crosstabs are very unreliable to begin with and there was nothing in this poll's racial crosstabs that jumped out as "the" smoking gun.  The Hispanic AND black breakdowns showed Reid doing worse than he will, but the margins of error are too high to fault that in the poll's methodology.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    Isn't Reid
    heading into election day with a likely lead? And if they are targeting voters who aren't always so motivated, wouldn't they get an even bigger bump on election day because they will have switched the focus to those who are more motivated--assuming they are doing this?

    You guys have followed this more closely than I have, but my read on the situation is that if they are firing on all cylinders, as it looks like they are, Reid will win. Or, if they are, and he still loses, there simply weren't enough votes there to begin with.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Answers to your questions......
    Yes Reid likely leads with early voters.  Ralston pointed out that there's no enthusiasm gap in early voting, and Dems outnumber Republicans with indies only 16% or so.  Ralston says if the early vote returns on election night, which are reported first, don't show Reid with an early edge, he's toast.  And Ralston doesn't think that, he thinks Reid ultimately wins.

    Ralston also says that election day voting usually has stronger turnout from rural areas and Washoe than from Clark.  Clark does better in early voting than those areas.  Thus, that, too, suggests Reid won early voting.

    But regarding "unmotivated" voters, Dems in every state where Dems are well-organized target those people in early voting to get their votes banked, and not have to work so hard on election day when it's just too busy to focus on them all.  They certainly will focus on sporadic voting Dems again for Tuesday, as much as they can, but this focus is ongoing and there's nothing special about election day except that it's the last chance to vote.

    Your last two sentences are dead-on right.  It's one or the other.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    eh, it all really depends
    Reid does get some of the tougher to get voters out of the way but the bump shouldn't be anything special because his GOTV operations would have heavily targetted them anyway.  This does give him more time to focus GOTV on other groups, but to me it doesn't seem like he has that much of an opportunity to expand his voter universe but rather just more time to ensure they all vote.
    [ Parent ]
    Two things I noticed
    1. The Hispanic number. I'll give PPP the benefit of the doubt here and assume that they wouldn't let something like that screw up the entire poll.

    2. Among early voters, the non-Reid and Angle candidates (including NOTA) got 4% of the vote. With election day voters, those options are getting 11% support with an additional percent undecided. Those folks will determine the race, since  I assume a portion of them will change over to Reid or Angle at the last minute.  

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Most probably won't...
    With the likely exception of 12% of young voters for Ashjian that I'm still not believing... But that's another problem.

    Anyway, back to the rest of the "angry voters", they don't like either candidate. Some of them may not even show up on Tuesday, especially since they didn't already vote early. And if they hate Reid AND Angle that much (possible b/c both sides have been attacking each other nonstop since June), they probably won't even try to think about which one they hate less.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    [ Parent ]
    Except for 3 things...
    1. Their Latin@ numbers... Latin@ turnout will reach double digits, but I don't think they'll reach 20%. And Reid most likely has much more than just a 13% lead. (They HATE Angle.)

    2. Young voters... I'm just not seeing a whopping 12% (??!!) going for Ashjian. JUST. NOT. HAPPENING!

    3. Independents... In early voting, Nonpartisans & others combined made just 16% of the electorate. There would have to be a HUGE spike in Indie voters to get them up to 19% now.

    So considering Reid is still up 1% in just the Reid vs. Angle matchup (no change from earlier this month), I think the "young people voting Ashjian" thing and "weak Latin@ support" thing are unnecessarily weighing down Reid's numbers in PPP.

    As I said last night, even good pollsters sometimes have bad days.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    [ Parent ]
    In order to amuse myself,
    I've always wondered what would have happened if I lived in Nevada and wanted to mess with Angle. I figured if I really wanted to be a jerk, I'd hire a Mariachi band to follow her around and play in a really loud, obnoxious manner whenever she was speaking in public.

    Anyway, I hope you're right.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Back of the envelope math
    If Hispanic turnout is 12% rather than 20%, Reid would need to win this group by 22 rather than 13 to achieve the results of this poll. That seems pretty likely, from what I've heard from you and everyone else involved with the race.

    Of course, the question then becomes, where does that 8 percent of the electorate go (from the Hispanic column?) Is 77% white too high? Black turnout at 8 is plenty high already.  

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    The normal black vote in Nevada actually IS quite high......
    Exit polls say black voters were 10% in 2008, 6% in 2006, and 7% in 2004.  So 8% now wouldn't really that high especially with the possibility of abnormally high black midterm turnout to support the first black President; it's still a dropoff from the Presidential so credible there, and wanting to get Obama's back would explain better turnout than 2004 or 2006.

    And even further, exit polls had the Asian vote and "other" each at 3%, 2%, and 3% over the last 3 federal elections, meaning 6% combined in the Presidentials and 4% combined in the last midterm.

    Nevada is a very diverse state, moreso than people realize.  The fact that Hispanics are the largest minority makes many people forget the very large black and other minority populations there.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    PPP has "Other" (inc. Asian) at 3%
    Let's give an extra point there and two extra points to the black column. That still leaves us with 5% of the electorate to account for--is a white %age in the mid-70's reasonable, or will it be closer to an even 70%?

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    My guess is actual electorate will be ballpark of 75% white, based on...
    ...Ralston saying yesterday that just over 11% of early voters with Hispanic, and that should tick up to the Democratic goal of 12% on election day as Hispanics have slightly greater tendency than others to show up on election day rather than vote early.

    So I think black voters plus Asians plus "others" plus Hispanics ought to make up around one-quarter combined.

    In 2008 the white vote dipped just below 70% per exit polling, so 75ish now makes sense to me--but honestly I won't be shocked if it's a bit lower, more like low 70s.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Q: Ohio
    Another from Q:

    Kasich 47 Strickland 46

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128...

    All OH-Gov polling converging on dead heat. Somehow this surprises me because...
    ...the polling suggests Strickland has an 11th-hour surge, even though on paper he has no business getting reelected with his dismal job approval numbers, Kasich's largely inoffensive establishment profile, and the strong anti-Democratic wave.

    Because of the 3 aforementioned things, in addition to the fact these 11th-hour polls still show Strickland DOWN a point or two, I still suspect we're going to get our hearts broken in this one.  And it will hurt, because when you're so close to an impossible upset under the worst possible conditions, it hurts more than just losing by 10 when you knew it was gone all along.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    The Ohio Poll comes out this morning also.  Unless that shows Strickland with a lead, I'm picking Kasich.  
    [ Parent ]
    I suppose I'll "pick" Kasich as my prediction, but in reality I'll be just as heartbroken as if...
    ...I "picked" Strickland.  These margins of 1-2 points are true dead heats, and that makes losing just very hard no matter how I try to set my expectations.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    I'll be picking Strickland
    in my Gov diary later today, but that's probably due to my admitted inability to ever take off my partisan hat.  The only other upset I'm picking is Quinn over Brady.  

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    you need to throw all your expectations out the window
    Or you're going to have extremely long tomorrow night!
    [ Parent ]
    I always kind of figured Kasich would win unfortunately

    [ Parent ]
    This
    Because OH-Gov is one of the races I care most about, this one is the thing I'm most nervous about.  I would so much rather see a close race in PA-Sen (from a D perspective, I would think that the two are of equal redistricting value) than this.  Whatever else happens tomorrow night, this one will haunt me until it's called.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Rassmusan
    Manchin 50
    Raese 46


    "Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
    Rass: Manchin by 4
    Desperate to save himself utter embarrassment, what a sleazeball......
    I'm more persuaded than ever before that Scotty might actually be rigging his results outright.  It's awfully convenient that he pushes a strong GOP bias in his polls long after others say otherwise, and then he switches gears at the very end to conform to the norm.  Scotty has had Raese up in both his own brand and the Fox Pulse polls forever, and then voila, Manchin up in the same ballpark as others.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    In fairness he made
    the switcheroo last week, when he had Manchin up 3 after having Raese up the week before.  But that really doesn't help much.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    In any event
    Obviously, a Manchin win would offset a Murray loss.  Which I don't think will happen.  I'm zeroing in on a final net 8 loss for the Dems in the senate.
    [ Parent ]
    I predicted four in my diary,
    but if I briefly take off my partisan hat, what is left of my rational side would say 7 - AR, CO, IL, IN, ND, PA, WI - with IL and CO capable of going the other way.  I'm a firm believer in Ralston in NV-SEN.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Charlie Cook himself says 8 max, and he's no optmist for Dems......
    Cook said flat out within the past few days that WA, CA, and WV are all going Dem.  The only races left for which he won't make a bottom-line call are IL and NV.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Did he see PPP's poll of WA?
    Horrible numbers....

    Where is he getting his info?  Are the internals large enough to overcome a possible robocall bias?

    [ Parent ]
    Horrible numbers?
    Down 2 is horrible?  Democrats almost always outperform their final numbers in WA.  That's how we got Senator Cantwell in 2000, and why Dino Rossi is not in his second term as governor.
    [ Parent ]
    Thanks for that...
    I needed it.  I've gotten no sleep worrying about this...
    [ Parent ]
    Also,
    isn't Murray likely or definitely leading amongst those who have already voted?

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Not according to PPP or SurveyUSA...
    That's the real disturbing number.  Both pollsters show Rossi up by five in early voters.
    [ Parent ]
    I think it's less of a concern with mail in
    People who don't have to worry about lines when they can just drop it in the mailbox, are more apt to vote.
    [ Parent ]
    According
    to PPP (for what it's worth), Rossi leads early voting 52-47.

    But I join most others here in skepticism. Murray pulls it out, albeit narrowly.

    20, GOP, NH-02

    [ Parent ]
    PPP said no

    among voters who say they've already returned their ballots Rossi's advantage is wider at 52-47.



    [ Parent ]
    I'm almost
    certain there was at least one credible poll that showed she was ahead with people that had already voted. Am I confusing one thing with something else, or was there really never any such poll?

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    The last PPP poll had her leading with early voters....
    But, that has been apparently wiped out...
    [ Parent ]
    That's consistent with reports from user adleft
    who on the ground, did report a R lead in the first few days, as early votes came more from R leaning areas.

    And that changed with the use of the mobile early voting stations.

    [ Parent ]
    Scratch that, I thought you were talking about NV, nm

    [ Parent ]
    I'd believe the early voting
    If Rossi weren't polling so well with women.  That's the number that gives me pause.
    [ Parent ]
    Take
    this for what it's worth, which admittedly isn't much, but I just can't see them winning this seat. It's not a good year for Democrats, so Murray won't win by a huge margin, but she seems to know what she's doing. And Rossi is like the guy who always gets this close to winning but somehow fucks it up.

    Besides, the majority of the polling says the race is Murray's to lose. I live on the opposite side of the country, in New York, and am not sure of what is happening in Washington, but has anything drastic happened that would indicate a switch to Rossi in the last week?  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Cook gets his info from party and campaign insiders, better info than we get......
    One thing everyone needs to understand is that all these campaign journalists get inside info that the public never sees, that we never see on SSP.  That's just plain true.  And those guys make their calls based primarily on THAT info.  And they're not stupid, they don't take partisan assertions at face value.  When Cook or Rothenberg or someone else says a particular race is going a certain way, it's because he's getting info he trusts from BOTH sides saying the same thing.

    I'm not saying we should trust Cook blindly.  We shouldn't.  Internal polling can be wrong.  Sometimes parties and campaigns actually shortchange themselves, although that's pretty unusual.  There are plenty of instances of campaigns with stellar polling showing them winning, but then they lose.

    But regarding Cook and WA-Sen in particular, I bet he got info on the likely breakdown of early voting based on both parties' analysis, and probably polling on remaining voters.  Campaigns are going to be very sophisticated to track this stuff, they normally have specific precinct-based turnout and performance targets and track progress on those targets.

    In most cases public polling proves right, but also in almost all those instances the public polling lines up with what the experts say.  Washington is a tossup per public polling, there are late polls showing either candidate ahead.  But Cook obviously believes those are misleading and Murray has it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Cook also had PA-12 speical as an R takeover...
    ....based solely on his gut and AGAINST all available polling.  He doesn't always do things scientifically.
    [ Parent ]
    Judging from I.E.'s over the past week
    the one the Democrats are really, really trying to save is IL.  Huge expenditures there on multiple dates.

    The efforts in CO and PA are pretty strong too, but not outside the norm.  

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    ironic
    Since IL-Sen would probably provide them with a "bipartisan" vote on "some" things at least.  I get the "Obama Seat" metric, but policywise, wouldn't you rather have Kirk and Bennet than Alexi and Buck?  Or Kirk and Reid than Alexi and Angle?  Kirk/Sestak vs Alexi/Toomey?  I guess it depends what you want, but I'd think Democrats would do better with fewer hard-right wingers in the Senate.  A couple, yes, but they could definitely use a few Kirks, Browns, Mainers.
    [ Parent ]
    I disagree
    because the rise of the Tea Party will force Kirk to the right.  He's not going to be at all reliable to cross party lines on key votes.

    At the same time, it is not as meaningful to have extremist Republicans win anymore because almost all Republicans act like extremists right now.  If they both make it somehow, I bet Rossi's voting record would look quite a lot like Buck's.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Also
    the party with the unity problem right now is the Democrats, and Alexi will be a solid Dem vote, while Bennet has proven to be a decent but not lockdown Dem vote, which is part and parcel to representing a swing state.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    I'll have my diary tonight
    But, although I admire Ralston, I think Angle is going to win.  And as much as I want Sestak, I think he's heading for a narrow loss.  As is Gianoulias and Bennet.
    [ Parent ]
    how would it offset?
    both seats are held by Democrats. I hope Sestak can somehow pull this out.
    [ Parent ]
    That's right
    A win in one will offset a loss in the other.
    [ Parent ]
    It would only offset if Democrats capture a Republican held
    seat. A win in Washington state and/or West Virginia is a hold for the Democrats.
    [ Parent ]
    PA-Sen
    A bit silly, I know, but I tend to think of PA-Sen as GOP hold because a GOP candidate was elected to that seat.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    doesn't fee like it though...
    He really went out on a limb with his Rossi +1 Friday and now PPP confirms.  I'm leaning that he's been pretty honest the past few weeks at least.  His NV-Sen have also been corroborated, even if they end up being off.  CA-Sen too.
    [ Parent ]
    After seeing the last batch of PPP polls
    I'm sticking with all my Senate predictions (i.e. Kirk, Buck, Reid, Murray, Boxer and Manchin all win), except sadly, I think I have to finally face reality and withdraw my outlier prediction of a Sestak victory. It probably isn't going to happen.

    BTW, spiderdem, here's how badly I wan't Sink to win: I'd sacrifice a couple of Senate seats (probably Murray and Manchin) if she could win. It will actually give me a halfway decent night if she does win.  

    Here's a meaningless anecdotal
    tidbit.  All of the Republicans who I interact with on a day-to-day basis, probably about 5 total (I try to limit that shit) are either voting for Sink or abstaining.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    I am actually
    curious to ask my conservative family members at Thanksgiving who they voted for in the governor's race in New York, if they voted at all. I could actually see them not voting if they felt that there was no point because of the three blowouts at the top, but then there are a few competitive to slightly competitive races at the local level, so I guess they will show up. They really don't like Democrats, but they aren't wing nuts in the Ann Coulter sense, so it remains to be seen whether they could vote for Palladino.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Im too afraid to ask my parents
    If they plan on voting for Bachmann tomorrow.  They didn't in 2008 because they are Indys more so than Republicans but this year I have a feeling they plan on it.  Could probably convince them not to since they take pity on my overly political self at times and Tarryl Clark is from their home-town, too.
    [ Parent ]
    What makes you so
    certain that Sestak is likely to lose? It wouldn't necessarily surprise me if he did, but at the same time, I have faith that the party is doing what it can to to turn out key groups for us in Pennsylvania. I guess I have kind of resigned myself to thinking that if a lot of these guys lose, the votes simply weren't there.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    So true
    Sestak ran the best campaign he could.  So did a lot of possible losers like Strickland, White, etc.  O still feel a Toom win too but we can't write it off the day before the election.
    [ Parent ]
    Sestak ran a very good campaign
    He's been under a tremendous barrage of IE negative ads.  I'n hoping against hope that he can pull it off, but I'm also realistic enough to conclude that when all the polls have him a few percent behind, that's not likely to happen.
    [ Parent ]
    Have any of the polls
    had enough flaws to make you think there's a way he could pull it out? I could be wrong, but I think I remember a few of them oversampling Republicans. Wouldn't a small shift in the direction of the Democrats in the electoral composition make a victory a lot more likely? He's not 20 points behind, after all, and there's supposedly a strong ground game going for him.

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    GOTV is crucial in Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, Ohio, Florida, and Connecticut. Bring up the Democratic vote share just slightly and Democratic candidates there win.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    That is
    why I am more confident than most. I get that he's president and doesn't have a direct influence on these things, but I'm hoping that the Obama example from 2008 of doing the traditional things like adding voters and running ads but also focusing heavily on ground games is happening this time around. I'd say it is, although behind the scenes. Not that it's any secret that each side does this, mind you, but Obama is a long-term thinker, and I could easily see him telling those in charge of these things to ignore the chattering classes and do what they can to build a solid ground game. If nothing else, they appear to be doing the right things at Organizing for America, contacting those outside of the already highly motivated base--and contacting millions of them.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    It could happen
    It's the unanimity of the polls showing him 4 or 5 points behind that makes me think GOTV won't be enough.
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah this^^^^^^^^^^
    As much as I hate to say it.  
    [ Parent ]
    Give credit where due as well
    Toomey has run an excellent campaign and convinced the whole state he was more moderate than his voting record suggests. If this is an R pickup, Sestak didn't lose the seat so much as Toomey won it.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    I guess I could
    agree with that. I kind of had the idea that he would be a formidable opponent when he said he would vote for Sotomayor before she was confirmed to the Supreme Court. That move showed he was looking to the general election and trying to appear as a moderate. It helped that he probably had the primary sewn up at that point, but still.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Not too much credit
    He didn't make any major mistakes, but it was money and the absence of a primary.  Had Toomey defeated Specter and Sestak had no opposition, it would be Toomey trailing by 5.  Also, Sestak was buried by IEs ranging from Crossroads, to Wall Street, to right-wing Zionists.  
    [ Parent ]
    Take out the third party spending...
    and who wins?
    [ Parent ]
    Its a tie
    The primary was the killer.  In PA we get de-sensitized to ads due to the volume we see because we're are a swingstate and also get NJ and DE ads.
    [ Parent ]
    Figures
    One last FU from Arlen.
    [ Parent ]
    It happens
    I think big O could have done a big fundraiser for Sestak the moment he beat Arlen.  It could have re-filled Sestak's coffers.  But I don't know that would have changed much.  Competitive primaries always have this effect.  
    [ Parent ]
    If he hadn't switched parties
    Sestak would be winning.
    [ Parent ]
    And if I had wheels
    We can all hate Arlen for this loss, but let's not forgot he did vote D pretty heavily since the switch.  My flaw isn't so much with Arlen switching or running for re-elect, it was the endorsements of Arlen's re-elect campaign.  neutrality would have made the primary less close and Sestak could have saved money.  C'est la vie.
    [ Parent ]
    Disagree
    Sestak let his opponent define him, hasn't cooperated with any of the other candidates in PA for a coordinated GOTV campaign and his staff turnover has been way too high because he pays his people peanuts compared to what every other campaign pays their staff (which isn't all that great). If he loses, it's not just because of the way.
    [ Parent ]
    Where did you read
    that about the GOTV operation?  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    ill be happy if we lose 100 House seats and 12 Senate seats
    If Mark Dayton wins.  The rest of the country can just sit back and admire what we do here.  We've even got our own version of the stimulus lined up for next year if Dayton wins.
    [ Parent ]
    Well at least someone is happy
    And even though I know there is some joking to your statement, we do as a community need to look for bright spots.  Focusing on losing doesn't do anyone any good in any aspect of life.
    [ Parent ]
    Well, I want Dayton to win
    But I'm not sacrificing 100 house seats and 12 Senate seats. That's a little too high of price.

    (still, along with Sink, Dayton is one of the two governor candidates I most want to win tomorrow).  

    [ Parent ]
    Obama job approval: day before election, Rasmussen suddenly has him positive at 50-49......
    This is only the 2nd time since the spring Rasmussen has had Obama at 50 for a day.  He's at 41 with whites, 97-3 with blacks, and 66-34 with "other."  And that, by the way, is very credible.

    One thing I find in studying Rasmussen's Obama job approvals is that their obvious flaw, common on all Rasmussen polling, is in subsamples of "other" minorities.  The white job approval always orbits 40:  usually slightly below 40, occasionally at or slightly above 40.  And that's very credible.  The black job approval varies more, which is acceptable as it's a small subsample, but bottoms out at 89 on the worst days and otherwise is always in the 90s--quite often the high 90s.  That, too, makes perfect sense.  But "other" minorities fluctuates wildly and unpredictably, as low as the low 30s and as high as the high 60s.  And THAT is a major flaw in sampling.  It's endemic to Rasmussen polling and cannot be corrected without major changes in his methodology that he never will make because those changes are too expensive for his business model.

    Realistically, "other" minorities should always be in the 50s or 60s for Obama job approval given the political conditions of the past year-plus and the state of white and black opinion.  Hispanics always are favorable toward Obama and other Democrats, the only question is the margin.  Asians, too, are considerably more favorable than whites, but clearly less so than Hispanics.

    And the fluctuation in Obama's job approval in Rasmussen ALWAYS can be traced almost completely to "other" respondents.

    Anyway, the bottom line is Rassy is at least showing some sort of Obama spike, perhaps reflecting late interest with "likely" voters, or more likely just a blip.  But worth noting for sure the day before the election.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    I wonder if that will affect his final generic
    Historically, a president's party with 49 or 50 approval shouldn't suffer the losses the Democrats are likely to suffer.
    [ Parent ]
    look where we're losing
    It will all make sense.
    [ Parent ]
    It doesn't matter.
    The Democrats will forever and always be in DISARRAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I heard it on "Meet the Press."

    Seriously now, his approval ratings aren't great, but they were never going to be as high as they were around the time he first came into office barring some major changes in the economy. Still, he's not at 20 percent, and his personal appeal continues to be higher than other metrics, so at least he has an opening to communicate. Plus, he's right around where Reagan and Clinton were at this point in their presidencies, and they went on to secure second terms. Basically, while I think he's almost certain to win a second term, perhaps by a significant margin, it's really too early to tell, especially for those who trumpet the idea that he's definitely a one term president.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Obama's numbers aren't actually bad
    Which is why I find a lot of the handwringing about his political fortunes to be a little overdone. Having about a 46% approval rating amidst near-10% unemployment is actually rather high, and frankly, I can't imagine anybody else, Democrat or Republican, save maybe Hillary, holding up that well under these conditions. I imagine most other people would have approvals in the 30s in this climate.

    Still, I'm not sure it matters much regarding the congressional results. Obama himself is still reasonably popular, but a whole lot of people have turned their anger towards Congress and that's helping drive the Republican wave. There was interesting survey done a short while back that showed the gap between Obama's approval rating and Congress' was the highest of everyone except George HW Bush post-Gulf War.

    Link: http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    I think that gap is what makes the congressional losses a little weird, assuming things turn out as most analysts expect. These are the kinds of results you'd expect with a president whose approvals are in the 30s - not the upper 40s.  

    [ Parent ]
    I think that they will make
    gains, but I expect them to be far less than they might be (35 for a good night for the Democrats; 50-55 for a bad night, with pickups included), if only because the low approval ratings of pretty much everyone make it a draw. If Republicans manage to score truly massive pickups (80-plus seats) with such low approval ratings, it'll be interesting to read the studies of how this came about.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    RAS CT: Blumenthal by 7
    PPP on WA
    Most pollsters had found that there's no great turnout gap in Washington, so PPP's partisan breakdown (35D-32R) seems a bit rough. It's 7% worse than 2008, even slightly worse than SUSA and Democrats are under their 2004 level. Though this sure isn't by itself enough to substantially change the topline.  And of course, this can be played both ways. DCCyclone was commenting above that PPP oversampled Hispanics in Nevada...

    Twitter.com/Taniel
    With the race that close...
    Sure it'll change the topline if you subtract two points from the I column, or one from I and the other from R, and add them to the D column.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    Sure
    I just mean that insofar as poll numbers go we're really talking about statistical noise if we increase the partisan breakdown by 1-2%... But bottom-line is that if Dem edge is really so low, then sure Patty Murray is in big trouble. Still remains difficult to see Dem edge being that tiny.

    Twitter.com/Taniel
    [ Parent ]
    If we take PPP seriously,
    then Joe Biden is going to have a busy two years.

    UGH.

    Not really...
    Lieberman will flip to the other side in an instant...  He's probably already pacing his bags...
    [ Parent ]
    See, I don't think he will...
    But the threat he might will put the thumbscrews on the Democrats, which is almost worse.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    I don't know why he would, at this point.
    I really believe he'll retire. Republicans will probably will run a credible candidate next time around, and he can't possibly win a Democratic nomination.  
    [ Parent ]
    Well if he's retiring, he has MORE incentive to do it......
    If he doesn't have to answer to voters, he can OPENLY and COMPLETLEY be a whore, with no self-regulation whatsoever.  It's whatever he can get for attention and whatever else he wants for his last 2 years.

    As long as he THINKS he MIGHT want to run again, the reality of a hostile electorate is a force to keep him in check.  And party-switching won't help him, it will only hurt more.  The Rethugs already hate him again, he voted for health care reform and all else on floor votes this Congress.  The Iraq War is over, so that doesn't help him with Republicans anymore.  And Democrats will 100% unify against him as a switcher.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Or if Dems take the CT Gov race....
    Obama can appoint Lieberman Sec of Defense and Dems can get a new Senator.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...
    [ Parent ]
    He could REALLY give the last middle finger by retiring after the beginning of the new Congress
    Get out and let Governor Foley appoint Jodi Rell to the Senate in his place.

    Ahh, but I can dream, can't I?

    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    He gets more pleasure out of screwing Democrats from within the caucus.  Besides, they've given him everything he wanted.
    [ Parent ]
    He would probably encourage the speculation
    but he keeps more power in the D caucus than by switching IMO.  
    [ Parent ]
    Off topic,
    but I was thinking the other day about how much I dislike Lieberman. There are a lot of people in politics that I don't care for, but he's at the top of the list. He's an arrogant little fuck who would sell his other mother to advance his career. When he was challenged in the primary, a lot of Democrats, including a popular new one named Barack Obama, came to his defense. He then promptly turned around and stabbed them in the back when he not only campaigned for McCain, but did it in a nasty way, implying Obama was a Marxist, among other things. I can't blame him for following his gut, but why couldn't he do it like Collin Powell, who endorsed Obama but still respected McCan? I guess there are the classy, thoughtful political figures, and then there's people like Joe Lieberman. And do I even need to go into what a pain in the ass he was during the health care form negotiations, constantly moving the goal posts about what was acceptable to get his vote?

    Suffice it to say that I'd sooner vote for George Bush than Joe Lieberman. Whomever he runs against, or whomever the person is that runs against the individual he endorses in 2012, will be extremely well funded. I'd certainly chip in a sizable amount to see that son of a bitch slapped in the face, literally and figuratively.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Pretty confident it'll be 51-49, and Joe won't have to be that busy

    [ Parent ]
    Faux polls
    Angle 48-45

    Buck 50-46

    Kirk 46-42

    Murray 49-47 (for Mark)

    Kasich 48-44

    Not Pulse polls.

    Link
    [ Parent ]
    Also
    Brady 44-38 and Hick 47-44.
    [ Parent ]
    Yes they are pulse polls..
    ...read the article...
    [ Parent ]
    You're right. My error

    [ Parent ]
    Well, I'll take the WA-Sen poll, anyway...
    I'm trusting Ralston about public polls missing the mark in Nevada and my instincts tell me Colorado is closer, although I'm expecting Democrats lose all of these but Washington and Nevada.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    Regarding Nevada......
    One thing I DON'T trust is these polls saying Angle is up 3-4 points.  I just don't quite buy that.  If Reid loses, it'll be a point, or 2 at the most, and Angle won't be at 49-50.  She'll be lower than that even in victory.

    I do think a LOT depends on election day turnout in Nevada.  I suspect Reid has a clear but small lead from early voting, but not enough for election day turnout not to reverse it.  So we really won't know anything until very late Tuesday night or sometime Wednesday morning, UNLESS we find out Reid is tied or trailing in the early vote count in which case he's dead.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I have a hard time believing those polls.
    It's not as if Reid was coasting and got caught off guard. The same can't be said for, well, any of the Senate candidates, except for perhaps Feingold. That's why all of these "WORST NIGHT EVAR!!!!!!!" scenarios where people like Angle win by seven points strike me as a little nutty. Among other things, it'd make more sense if the Republicans were actually liked, but they aren't.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    CT-Gov: Ras joins the club, says Foley 48-46......
    That makes 3.  I'd normally dismiss Ras, but they were 3rd in line on this after PPP and Q.

    CT Dems are Charlie Brown against Lucy, and the election the football, in Governor's races.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    Let's hope those rallies do something for turnout...
    Malloy is so transparently the better candidate in this race, it makes me sad. Same thing in Texas with Bill White looking likely to go down to Gov. Perry, and in Oregon, which is also a tossup.

    If Malloy loses, he should run for Senate in 2012. But I don't really want to think about him losing.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    That poll is RI-01, not RI-02
    I thought CT-Gov was depressing, but now this? RI-01 going Republican would be an instant night-ruiner. I don't care if we hold the house and/or pick up 10 Republican seats, if RI-01 goes red I will cry. However I still think Cicilline will win.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    Also, Brian Foley losing is depressing too
    I gained respect for him after his tough vote in favor of gay marriage.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Fox Pulse question of the day
    In Washington state (a vote by mail state)

    14* Every election, the television networks conduct exit polls of people as they leave their polling places on Election Day. If you were asked to participate, how likely is it you would be willing to spend 10 minutes filling out a questionnaire?


    "Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
    Also with only 2 names on the ballot in Washington
    Some other candidate is getting 4% of the vote.

    "Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
    [ Parent ]
    some other or still undecided?
    I figured the 4% still couldn't be pushed.  
    [ Parent ]
    Some Other Candidate
    http://www.foxnews.com/project...

    Murray 49
    Rossi 47
    Some other 4
    Not sure 0

    "Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

    [ Parent ]
    New Poll on OH-GOV
     From Quinnipec. Same story, Kaisch ahead by 1.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




    17, CA-06,  

    Re pundits, I'm noticing from Josh Kraushaar's twitter feed...
    ...that confirming what one moderator said here, I think it was DavidNYC, that Kraushaar definitely has a hard time concealing his Republican loyalties.  He barely conceals his cheerleading, something that's not obvious from just a few tweets but over the course of weeks it becomes very clear.  His latest is that Boxer is in trouble and Carly is surging.  I don't think that's going to work out for him.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    CA-Sen/Gov: Boxer up 4, Brown up 5
    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    The good news is both have reached the 50% mark, but if there's any truth to Whitman's crazy GOTV operation, I could probably see these sort of margins wiped-out. The Dems need solid GOTV here or there's trouble.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    Hell she could spend $30M...
    And hire a kick ass ground game.  Fiorina is hoping to ride on her GOTV coattails, whereas Brown reportedly still thinks ground game is what is was 30 years ago - unions.  

    Time Magazine has Paul, Rubio, Angle and Whitman on their cover next week.  Just sayin' is all.  

    [ Parent ]
    GOTV can never wipe out a margin of 4-5 points, especially in...
    ...a state as big as CA.  A percentage gap that big just translates to too many voters in most places, and especially in the biggest state.

    It's always said that if you're down 2-3 points in sound polling, and you have a far superior GOTV than your opponent, then you can make up the gap.  A percentage gap any bigger than that, and it's a mighty tough hill to climb.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    GOTV can't create
    votes that don't exist.
    [ Parent ]
    probably about 1/2 of the voters have already voted
    in California maybe more. I trust the Field poll on this and what the candidates are saying.  
    [ Parent ]
    The numbers are pretty final
    If this was still a one to two point race, GOTV might matter, but 5 points is too much. Whitman just isn't pulling enough Democrats for a win. Republican voters will already be turning out heavy and her numbers reflect her party support.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
    [ Parent ]
    What happens . . .
    if the news from the East early Tuesday evening is very pro-GOP.  Could such news depress Dem turnout (the Carter effect) and allow Fiorina to squeak through?  

    I can't see anything preventing a Brown win, however.  

    [ Parent ]
    A lot more "vote by mail" on the West coast
    afaik, it was non-existent in '80
    [ Parent ]
    I wonder
    I don't think this will matter in CA, but I'm betting it does in HI-01.  I can see people wanting to keep someone who is going to be in the majority party as well as depressed Dem turnout.  And there will be plenty of people still voting in HI when the news breaks (if it does.)

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Hawaii does mail-in voting
    At least I think they do.

    Even if they didn't, I seriously doubt that any undecided voters are really thinking that far into the weeds.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

    [ Parent ]
    Mail in
    I think they only did mail in for the special election to save money, but I'm open to correction.  I was under the impression that they vote the normal way.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    That could be right, I was basing off of the special, but who knows
    Still, my other point stands, I don't think that there are enough undecided voters who would really cast their vote based on who the majority party is going to be.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    Not many would, but in a close race, it might be worth a point.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    No, neither of those things is realistic......
    There's not going to be depressed Dem turnout because there's a competitive Governor's race, coming after 8 years of a Republican Governor.  So that drives turnout.  Not to mention there's a Senate race on the ballot, and people care about their Congressional seat for its own sake.  No amount of bad news out East will drive down turnout in HI-01.

    Second, people don't decide their vote on "wanting to be in the majority."  That's not how anyone thinks.  People want either Hanabusa and/or a Democrat, or Djou and/or a Republican.  Candidate and party preference decide votes, not who controls the House unless you WANT the House to flip, but that's the same as saying you're voting Republican to put the Republicans in charge.

    Indeed, if there are swing voters in HI-01 who want Republicans in charge, "bad news" for Democrats early indicating the GOP has won the House blunts their motivation to vote against Hanabusa or to vote at all.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Ohio Poll projects 4 point Kasich win
    And a 21 point Portman win.

    http://www.ipr.uc.edu/document...

    That
    That does give me a bit of comfort, but I still think Strickland has a much better ground game than Kasich.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Allocating undecided voters?
    Interesting... never seen that before.  The Ohio poll is pretty good, but they definitely skew to the right and had Obama losing in 2008.
    [ Parent ]
    Actually, they had Obama winning by 6
    [ Parent ]
    Ugh
    Still, as pessimistic as I am, this is probably the only race where I think there may be a pleasant surprise tomorrow given the big early voting leads and the ODP's significant ground game. Though I may just be hanging on to this one personally to keep some shred of hope alive.  

    33, male, Dem, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    PPP: Sink still has lead, but by only one point...
    Surprising... with PPP's night of long knives, I thought she'd be down a ton....

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    Democrats in FL going into the election tied. . .
    tend to lose.

    All the best to Sink!

    [ Parent ]
    Better get the lawyers ready

    [ Parent ]
    Is it silly
    to think that if the races are as close as they are in a lot of places, the Democrats won't do as badly as some think? Granted, there's a difference between a House seat in New York or Colorado and the governor's race in Florida, but given the environment, you'd think almost everyone would be down by double digits right now.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
    [ Parent ]
    Well
    Almost every poll coming out has a small Sink lead. And you offer no proof of tied Dems losing in FL. Sometimes tied Dems in other states win, and sometimes they lose. It's no different in Florida.
    [ Parent ]
    Not true, polls are split, this is the purest tossup in the nation.......
    Just look at a chronological list of FL-Gov polls on Pollster.com, and you'll see there's no trend at all.  It's a jump ball.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Indeed
    I'm giving Scott the slight edge due to the year and the early vote totals, but there is no question that this thing could go either way.  I will make one prediction, and that is that Rubio will break the 50% mark by a hair.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    True
    But the last few polls are similar to this one, meaning it's a jump ball, possibly with a small Sink lead. I truly have no idea what will happen, but the idea that you can just assume a Scott win because the polls are tied is untrue.
    [ Parent ]
    Agree you can't assume a Scott win. Problem for Scott is...
    ...any R turnout advantage is offset by his likely suffering more crossover bleeding than Sink, and indies seeming to break for Sink.

    This is why a turnout gap, as Zornoph points to, CAN be misleading.  If you have a turnout advantage but bleed more crossovers and lose indies, your party's turnout advantage easily can be cancelled out.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    FL
    The GOP is leading the early/absentee vote.  She needs a big turnout on election day to pull it out.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    which is fine
    Reid is winning the early vote, but Angle is still projected to win. Although having votes in the bank can and will help, you cannot assume a winner based on early voting alone. Many people do vote on Election Day.

    I am not saying a Sink win is inevitable. But either is a Scott win.

    [ Parent ]
    PPP: Sink by 1
    PPP: Rubio up 17
    PPP: Is there an extra "Halloween effect" in polling?
    First off, I know people have in general complained about polling that's done solely over a weekend.

    PPP's polling over this weekend has generally been disheartening.

    One of the questions/possible lessons learned brought up from NY-23 last year is the effect of Halloween on polling numbers, especially when its over a weekend.

    I realize this is grasping at straws, as I don't have a statistical basis for what I'm suggesting, and am just hoping that someone else does.

    It's surely possible
    The final polls are released tomorrow night, and we'll know for sure then.
    [ Parent ]
    Who knows?
    Lots of younger votes most certainly would not be at home on Halloween night. That could be what the difference is in close races in blue states, the thing that polls didn't pick up.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
    [ Parent ]
    These are discredited myths, from what I've read......
    Examinations of weekend polling or polling over minor holidays (and yes Halloween is "minor" as there's no day off, people don't travel, and most aren't otherwise consumed by the occasion's events) show no difference compared to polling on weeknights.

    From what I've seen polling over major holidays IS a problem, and that means Thanskgiving and Christmas for sure.  Other holidays with a lot of travelers also can be problematic for polling, like Memorial Day or Labor Day.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen used to have

    roughly 3-4% Republican surge across weekends back when they did daily Bush approval polling and averaged together the numbers of the three preceding days.  Republican/Bush support would grow in the Sunday numbers, peak on Monday, then drop off on Tuesday.
    [ Parent ]
    CT GOV Rass: Foley by 2
    CT-Gov
    I really didn't expect this race to emerge the way it has.  What the hell happened up there, was Malloy really that lousy in debates as some have said?  It would take some upsets, but I could really see the GOP coming out of New England with half the governors mansions, despite being considered dead in the area a couple of years ago.  And if it's a really big night, they could have a majority.  I think it's highly unlikely, but there is even a slight path for them to get all of them.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    I think my home state of RI
    and NH are firewalls. NH has tightened but polling still seems to point to a Lynch advantage. Robitaille has never been ahead in RI--best he got was 2nd place and he was still behind Chafee by high single digits. Sadly for Robitaille, his ability to tap into the quite large liberal-but-fed-up-with-RI-Dems vote is hampered by Chafee's presence in the race.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    MA too for that matter...
    though MA has been competitive the longest of any of these races (pretty much), polling points to a small but consistent Patrick lead.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    It would take quite a lot for the GOP to pick up NH, RI or MA.  I don't think any are likely, but all three are possible.  But having three unlikely things happen...even in a wave, hard to see, but not impossible.  At this stage, I do think a wave will bring in Foley and Dubie, though.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    The wave won't hit VT
    Vermont is about as isolated from any national conservative tide as possible. This race is going to come down to local issues and Dubie's ability to convince voter's he's moderate enough for Vermont.

    Massachusetts is a race that never really materialized--the polls have moved here less than anywhere else, and a mid single-digit lead for Patrick has been the story for about a year now.

    Maine should flip to the GOP and Connecticut increasingly feels like a hold, but I think those will be the only two Republican governors in New England.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Foley's run a near perfect campaign
    I thought his anti Malloy emanate domain ads really captured the zeitgeist of the times. I thought it was brilliant. It was a was to appeal to the anti-establishment Tea Party mood without looking like a right winger.  

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    [ Parent ]
    Kelo
    Kelo vs New London is the Supreme Court decision that made me the most angry in recent years; I had forgotten that this was in CT.  Is that a big issue up there? (And how much smarter would O'Donnell have looked if she could have come up with that answer when asked.)

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Here is a link to a story on it
    http://blog.stamfordadvocate.c...

    It was about Curley's Dinner in Stamford. When I saw the ad on TV I said to myself wow, that's a good ad.

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    [ Parent ]
    Christine
    O'Donnell forces Delaware voters to listen to her for 30 minutes....

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    O'Donnell TV
    For some reason, when I read that comment I heard Roger Waters' (Pink Floyd) rather mournful voice singing "I've got thirteen channels of sh*t on the TV to choose from...to choose from...to choose from..."

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    One Day Late
    It's too late for the Christine O'Donnell Halloween Special.
    [ Parent ]
    Perhaps
    Perhaps she was hoping her opponent would talk about the Great Pumpkin?  

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    70% of Latino vote for Dems?

    On this, the eve of the 2010 Midterm Elections, the Latino Decisions tracking poll finds a Latino vote more energized, more enthused, and significantly more Democratic than at the start of the general election campaign.

    Overall, with undecided voters pushed to make a decision, they are reporting 70% vote intention for Democrats, and 30% for Republicans, on the generic ballot midterm question.

    http://www.hispanicallyspeakin...

    That can't be, LordMike here always says Latinos are breaking toward the GOP......
    Or, at least they badly WANT to!

    Seriously, Democrats are fine with people of color.

    Our problem this cycle is the white vote, specifically the indies and soft partisans among white voters all breaking against us.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Also turnout
    Getting minority and young voters to actually vote.  But the MSM, I'm sure, will harp on the independents.  Who, generally, are less motivated by ideology than by results.
    [ Parent ]
    And union voters

    Union households back the Democratic candidate in their district over the GOP by a 54 to 42 percent margin, lower than the 64 to 34 percent split in 2006 and the worst performance for Democrats among labor union households in exit polling dating back to 1976. Since 1976, labor union households have backed Democratic Congressional candidates by an average margin of 62 to 35 percent.

    http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

    Unemployment is a big factor, but so is the misguided excise tax in the health insurance bill.  Even though it's not set to take effect for several years.

    [ Parent ]
    Neat
    Now can people (not necessarily here) pleeeaasseee stop pretending that AZ-07, TX-27 and especially CA-20 are certain to go Republican solely because of polls that "forgot" to poll in Spanish? If any of those Repubs win, it'll be in squeakers, though I think that all three of those Dems do better than expected.

    22, Democrat, AZ-01
    Peace. Love. Gabby.
    [ Parent ]
    IA-01, IA-02, IA-03
    Ya think they all hang on?

    [ Parent ]
    Tim Sahd's House race rankings at National Journal now are a Top 90(!), and the Iowans...
    ...are Loebsack at 75, Braley at 86, and Boswell is NOT ON THE LIST.  Keep in mind 83 of the 90 are Dem-held.  Again, Sahd ranks 90 seats according to likelihood of flipping party control, and Boswell is more likely to win than at least 83 other Democrats.

    FWIW, Sahd has us picking up the Big 4, including Djou's seat which he downgraded (i.e., bad for Djou) to 41 from 57.  Sahd's other 3 Dem pickup possibilities further down the list are open FL-25 at 74, open FL-12 at 84, and Lungren in CA-03 at 88.  Unfortunately for Ami Bera in CA-03, the experts are indicating Lungren stopped the bleeding and got himself into better shape in recent weeks.  So most likely no Indian-American Democrat gets elected......yet again.  :-(

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    he's running in the wrong year
    if it were 2006 or 2008, Bera would likely have won. He should try again in 2012.
    [ Parent ]
    Agree, and actually he might be setting himself up very well for 2012......
    If redistricting helps Democrats in CA-03, and Bera runs again with Obama coattails, I bet he finishes the job.  It's very possible, too, Lungren will just retire if the new map makes his district any more hostile than it already is.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Not surprising
    My list is nearly 100.  If everything broke wrong, we could lose a net of 75.  
    [ Parent ]
    I think desmoinesdem deserves some recognition
    in addition to her excellent analysis of IA in general, I remember her asserting that Boswell would win in the end even after he looked like he was dead. Even if Zaun wins by a 1% chance, the fact that we all think Boswell's fine now shows she still knew what she was talking about.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    NY ST Sen: That poll leads me to believe GOP retakes Senate..
    For the Dems to keep the NYS Senate they need Foley & Aubertine to win.

    Looking at these numbers I think the GOP could even end up with a 2 or 3 seat majority.

    BTW, not to quibble but isnt Kennedy in SD-58 the Democrat & Conservative Party candidate? I know he bolted from the Dems in The Niagra County Legislature & sided with the GOP to give them control there. So he could be a wild card if he wins.  

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    probably

    But if there's any lesson bourn home again and again the past two years, it's that the NY Democratic Party still has plenty of serious housecleaning to do and needs to get their act together at the state legislator level.

    Voters will deny them the state Senate until they shape up significantly.

    [ Parent ]
    We Ask America
    I hesitate to post this, but WAA says Democrats get crushed in IL.  

    http://weaskamerica.com/2010/1...

    IL-08: Walsh 49, Bean 46
    IL-10: Dold 54, Seals 46
    IL-11: Kinzinger 55, Halvorson 45
    IL-14: Hultgren 50, Foster 45
    IL-17: Schilling 52, Hare 44

    Fuck you, We Ask America.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    I
    I ask you; is that poll worth a sh*t?  Doesn't look like it to me.  IL-10 in particular jumps out to me as false.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Yup, IL-10 is what discredits the pollster entirely, esp. since this is the SECOND time...
    ...in a row that they've got Dold winning, and last time by 11.

    Every expert is counting this as a Dem pickup now.  Tim Sahd has it at 19 in his Top 90 likely-to-flip list.  Cook moved it from tossup to lean Dem a couple weeks ago.  It's obvious Republicans themselves don't think they win this one, as those ratings upgrades for Seals wouldn't be based exclusively on Dem claims.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Whatever
    I have the bottom 3 losing, but Seals winning.  I wouldn't shed any tears if Bean lost, but neither side is treating it as closely contested.
    [ Parent ]
    Nothing new there
    They've been pushing bad numbers for those 5 races all year long. Their first batch was back in February and they had Bean and Walsh tied at 38. They're full of crap.
    [ Parent ]
    I don't give the pollster much credibility
    But those last three look like they could be right on the money. I wonder if WAA is getting them right by accident or something, because I don't expect the two northern seats to go Republican or even be close races.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Looks wrong in IL-10
    and maybe a little off in IL-17, but other three races look right.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    [ Parent ]
    You expect
    Melissa Bean to lose?

    20, GOP, NH-02
    [ Parent ]
    Oh whoops.
    Meant to include IL-08 in there as well. I heard Walsh was a terrible candidate.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    [ Parent ]
    conducted on Halloween
    that should be reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeal reliable
    [ Parent ]
    How ballot order helps candidates
    New article from congress.org that talks about how states are ordering their ballots.

    http://www.congress.org/news/2...

    24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

    YouGov: Mr. G up 3
    47-44.  Quinn down 7, 47-40.

    For you internet polling fans.

    http://blogs.suntimes.com/swee...

    Really hard to get any closer...
    Than IL-Sen, NV-Sen, CO-Sen, WA-Sen, FL-Gov, or CT-Gov right now. Talk about nail-biters.

    I just saw Sen. Cornyn on MSNBC, and he said he didn't think it was the GOP's year to run the table and flip the Senate, FWIW. Either it's downplaying expectations (a real possibility) or they're seeing what Cook is seeing in California and Washington, because he sounded doggedly upbeat about West Virginia at least.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    Rass generic: 51-39 Repub
    Obviously, Scotty feels less constrained as a result of the Gallup poll.  So, he's going all the way in for his party.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Average of the 6 generics out the last two days:  8.8%.

    Seems like a LOT of undecideds
    from a pollster that is notorious for pushing leaners.
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    Don't know if he was worried about getting too Gallup, or not pro-R enough.
    [ Parent ]
    8.8% GOP generic lead
    What does that project to in terms of GOP House gains?

    I'm thinking about 60, no?  

    [ Parent ]
    Probably 55-60

    [ Parent ]
    7 billion
    Sorry, I had to.  Where are the chicken littles today?
    [ Parent ]
    Cook ups his house forecast a bit
    Sounds like they're talking about snow.

    The Cook Political Report's pre-election House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 50 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible.

    I'mm just hoping now to keep it under 60.

    Here is my analysis
    of Cook (based on last Weds).  If the polling is right, I get a projection of 55 seats - which is exactly his mid-range.

    This is based on all public polls since September 15th.

    Photobucket

    [ Parent ]
    I'm at 56

    [ Parent ]
    Which House PV margin produced the biggest swing of seats?
    a) 10.01%
    b) 6.86%
    c) 7.92%
    d) 10.38%

    a) 5
    b) 54
    c) 31
    d) 21

    a public service announcement

    I'm pretty sure
    1994 (swing of 54, your option c) matches up with a 7-ish split in the national vote.
    [ Parent ]
    Should read: your option b n/t

    [ Parent ]
    yes
    and both As are 1986. Both Cs are 2006. Both Ds are 2008.
    [ Parent ]
    Cheating
    Cheating to have A=A, B=B, etc - no one expects that!  True story, in college I had a teacher who was new and on her first multiple point question, she felt that there should be an equal number of answers for each letter.  So in a 40 question test, there were 10 'A's, 10 'B's, etc.  But they she forgot to mix them up, so the answers were 10 A's in a row, 10 B's in a row, 10 C's and 10 D's!  Many students didn't believe that it was possible and got a lot wrong.  It was an accounting class, which I was good at, so I got 100 because I realized that it had to be right and I thought she was just screwing with our heads.  Poor lady, her name was Ms. Kopp, was quite embarrassed!

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Well, this is disturbing....
    http://seattletimes.nwsource.c...

    Comparing those numbers to the 2004 governor's race (where Rossi wound up basically tied with Democrat Chris Gregoire), Shortridge sees a heartening trend for Rossi: turnout in Democratic areas so far looks comparitively depressed.

    Shortridge writes:

       "As you'll note, in 2004, turnout in the heavily Democrat 7th CD was about 1.4 percentage points ahead of the state average. This year, the 7th CD is 3.3 percentage points behind the statewide average. Likewise, the 1st CD was 4 percentage points ahead of the statewide average in 2004. This year, it is 2.7 percentage points behind."

       "Further, in 2004, the more Republican 4th CD was 3.8 percentage points behind the state average, while the 5th CD was just under 2.5 percentage points behind. This year, the 4th CD is almost 5 percentage points ahead, as is the 5th CD."

    What are Cook and the Dems seeing that makes them so confident?

    Ah, and here it is...
    DSCC poll:  Murray up 7

    No info on early voters...

    http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

    [ Parent ]
    Murray by 2
    Lop off 5 points from that and you'll get what I've been predicting, -- Murray by 2.
    [ Parent ]
    Turnout
    It's so weird hearing people talk about 'turnout' in a mail-in election.  That word just isn't accurate, but I don't know what you would replace it with.  Response?

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    WA
    Uh-oh.  Let's take the word of Rossi's campaign manager as gospel.  Throw in the towel.

    Everyone's citing the PPP poll while ignoring the Faux/Pulse poll that shows Murray 2 point ahead.  Don't you love the MSM?

    [ Parent ]
    Forget about your silly whim!
    It doesn't fit the Plan!

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
    [ Parent ]
    Another article
    that doesn't do the apples-to-apples comparison. The 2004 numbers, no doubt, reflect total general election votes. The 2010 numbers reflect the votes that have already been received, which probably misses any voter who mailed in his or her ballot after the middle of last week.
    [ Parent ]
    Reuters/Ipsos: R +6
    50-44.  Predicts Dems will lose 52.

    http://www.reuters.com/article...

    Hey, I just noticed that the Gallup poll
    previously released today was USA Today/Gallup. This probably means they'll be releasing their standalone poll this afternoon?
    [ Parent ]
    Not sure....
    That's what I thought initially, but they posted it on their front page, so I don't know...
    [ Parent ]
    Don't think so
    It was on their site and sounded pretty final.
    [ Parent ]
    It's got a different survey period
    than the other polls they've been running: Thur-Sat (in one week) instead of Thur-Sun (in two).
    [ Parent ]
    Drops generic average to 8.3
    Of the 7 polls released in the last two days.
    [ Parent ]
    Pew too
    http://people-press.org/report...

    And I trust them pretty much more than anybody. More polls than not converging on 6 points actually.

    Rasmussen has so many voters unaccounted for it makes an easy out whatever happens. Basically, he will just say Dems came home. What I find interesting are his new numbers with regard to partisan trends - Dems up two points in October (GOP basically static) for a three point lead overall. It was dead even in 2004 which nailed the exit poll turnout split exactly.

    [ Parent ]
    Interestingtweet from Nate
    FWIW, there's about a 4 pt difference between generic ballot polls that included cellphones and those which didn't.

    SUSA CA: Brown by 11, Boxer by 8
    http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

    A lot of undecideds and others.

    Check this out...
    Comparison of surveys conducted by cell phone vs. land line (i.e. how much higher the Dem margin is in cell phone vs. land line samples):

    Senate: +14
    Governor: +16
    Lt. Gov: +4 (still a lot of undecideds here)

    The difference in net approval in support of Prop 19 is, get this, 35 points!!!

    [ Parent ]
    So SUSA's now doing live interviews?

    [ Parent ]
    A mixture
    they just started with CA and OR.

    I'd be interested to see WA - hope they have a final WA poll.

    WA-07, 34 years old

    [ Parent ]
    FWIW . . . In Connecticut
    CT Capitol Reports states that Caliguri is pulling away and is now up nine over Murphy in CT-05. http://www.ctcapitolreport.com...

    GOP polling firm but the movement to Caliguri dovetails with Foley's surge and late pro-GOP movement in the Nutmeg state.    

    Murphy
    I have him surviving with Himes losing.  But maybe they'll rise or fall together.  

    This poll has consistently been pro-Republican.  Don't be surprised if they issue a senate poll before the day is out with McMahon in a dead heat.

    [ Parent ]
    This is McMahon's doing, I think
    I've mentioned a couple times before that McMahon's ground game is excellent but isn't affecting the Senate race because they're selling a lousy candidate. They are, however, getting Republicans to the polls, which is helping the more electable GOP candidates like Foley, Caliguri, and Himes. Right now, I would be very surprised if the Democrats swept CT-Gov, CT-04, and CT-05--I think that Republicans will take at least one if not two of those.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Might be
    One story on Wednesday might be 'Rich GOP women fail to win, but expen$ive turnout operations drag other Republicans across the finish line'

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    What the GOP needed in CT
    was a Simmons candidacy that had McMahon's funding and ground operation.  And a pro-GOP cycle.  That appears to be the only way a Republican can win a Senate seat in modern blue Connecticut.  
    [ Parent ]
    He supposedly lead by a not too dissimilar margin
    Early last month in the same poll at the same time two Dem internals had Murphy up double digits.
    [ Parent ]
    Burr +12
    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    The more I think about, the more I suspect Republicans will BARELY fall short
    And that'll all come down to whether the GOP can convince Lieberman and/or Nelson to bolt their way. My gut tells me the GOP may sweep all toss-up/tilt races tomorrow, with the Dems clinging to California and West Virginia. In order words, a 51-49 majority that would force TWO Dem switches.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    What would be the point
    Lieberman and Nelson are both sitting ducks for their next elections.  And I can't think of what priorities they'd have that a Republican contriolled Senate would offer.  What could McConnell promise them and be reasonably assured of delivering in the time between now and their eventual defeats/retirements.

    I was more worried about House defections, but I'm guessing all potential defectors are going to lose so I'm nto actually worried about defections at all anywhere except mayeb state hosues in a place like Arkansas or even (god help us) New York.

    [ Parent ]
    IMHO the only reason they'd switch
    is if they're planning to retire and they can't abide the Democratic party.

    Lieberman's silence and lack of endorsements these past few months lead me to believe that he's very much planning to run in 2 years and trying not to anger anyone. This also makes me suspect he'll run as an indie again.

    And I can't imagine Nelson's retiring. If he switches, he'd face a stiff primary challenge, and would almost certainly lose.

    [ Parent ]
    Right but why switch in any case
    Its not like either will get a free pass in any primary of any kind.  Who's to say CT doesn't run someone real on the Independent line and not let Lieberman take that.

    I just don't know what the fofer could eb to make the switch.  I know people believe each man exists solely to scre Dems, but its just not true.  

    Nelson certainly seems to be trying to vote more his state than Lieberman, but both have nothing to gain by switching regardless of their future.

    [ Parent ]
    Lieberman will just create his own line,
    as he did last time with "CT for Lieberman."
    [ Parent ]
    Nelson won't switch.
    He can't win a Republican primary in Nebraska.  But he could possibly win a general election as a Democrat.  There is no upside for him in switching.

    As for Lieberman.  He's a disloyal slimeball.  And he may yet make a deal with Republican to at least give him a pass like they did four years ago.  But for the time being he'd absolutely LOVE having a 50-50 Senate where Democrats are forced to bend over backwards any time he wants to throw a temper tantrum.

    He's a media primadonna and this is what he lives for.  More room to create drama caucusing as a Democrat.  Once he switches no one will care about him anymore.  He'll just be post party switch Arlen Specter.

    NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

    [ Parent ]
    If this cycle has proved anything,
    it's that the Republican party is powerless against the Tea Party. They wouldn't be able to promise anything to Lieberman with any certainty. For instance, Peter Schiff is waiting in the wings as a candidate in CT with near-perfect tea party credentials. And I doubt he'd heed the establishment.

    Of course, things could be vastly different in two years, but Lieberman won't know that when he needs to commit his caucus allegiance for the new Congress.

    [ Parent ]
    I should add
    that Peter Schiff LOST the primary this year, so he's not quite "near-perfect." But my point is that there will be good candidates who will be able to upend establishment wishes, if today's mood still dominates.
    [ Parent ]
    Eating Crow
    I'd hate to eat crow, but the the latest polls from Walberg (Michigan 7th) and Rocky (Michigan 9th) seem like totall bullsh%t to me.  It seems that they are trying to get these polls out to prevent what may be a rout for the Republican candidates in these districts.
    SSP Daily Digest: 11/1 (Morning Edition) | 253 comments

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