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Last Round of Hill House Polls

by: Crisitunity

Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:52 PM EDT


Here's the last batch of 10 of the Hill House polls by Penn Schoen Berland. The sample periods were a mix of Oct. 16-19 and Oct. 19-21, with each sample with a 4.9% MoE. With previous rounds focusing on freshmen, open seats, and sophomores, this one deals with some of the most endangered veterans:

• CO-03: John Salazar (D-inc) 43%, Scott Tipton (R) 47%

• FL-02: Allen Boyd (D-inc) 38%, Steve Southerland 50%

• GA-08: Jim Marshall (D-inc) 37%, Austin Scott 50%

• IN-09: Baron Hill (D-inc) 46%, Todd Young (R) 44%

• IA-03: Leonard Boswell (D-inc) 49%, Brad Zaun (R) 37%

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 45%, Rick Berg (R) 44%

• PA-11: Paul Kanjorski (D-inc) 43%, Lou Barletta (R) 48%

• SC-05: John Spratt (D-inc) 39%, Mick Mulvaney (R) 49%

• SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 45%, Kristi Noem (R) 42%

• TX-17: Chet Edwards (D-inc) 40%, Bill Flores (R) 52%

So, 4 out of 10 isn't bad, considering the crowd we're looking at here (including the DOA-for-months Chet Edwards and Allen Boyd). Especially noteworthy is IA-03... who would have thought, even a few months ago, that chronically underperforming Leonard Boswell would be well on his way to re-election and possibly even not the most endangered Iowa Dem?

What's the overall damage? 31 of the total 42 Hill polls had Republicans in the lead, 4 ties, and 7 Dem leads. (Remember, 2 of those were GOP-held seats.) Mark Penn's take on what that means overall (remember, we're talking Mark Penn here, so take with salt as necessary):

"We didn't even poll in about 15 districts that are already too far gone for Democrats. So that, along with our entire series of polls, points to something in the range of a 50-seat gain for Republicans."

(I'm wondering what 15 he's talking about? Considering that they polled NH-01, TN-08, WA-03, WI-07, MI-01, AR-01, CO-04, IL-11, MD-01, NM-02, OH-15, PA-03, VA-02, and VA-05 earlier, that means I can count only AR-02, IN-08, LA-03, TN-06, NY-29, KS-03, and OH-01 in the "too far gone" category. Either he knows something about eight other races that nobody else does, or his math is a little fuzzy. Maybe he's counting FL-08 and WI-08, but even then he'd still owe us six more.)
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Last Round of Hill House Polls | 79 comments
Fuzzy math
I don't even know how he gets to 50 in the first place? 31 + half of the 4 ties = 33. Minus the 2 seats Dem are taking from the GOP = 31. Plus the 15 he says they didn't poll cause they're "already too far gone" = 46.

I guess 46 is "in the range of" a 50-seat gain if you want it to be ...

Deduct the 6-8 races you point out that are mysterious about any such 15-seat doomed sample, however, and you're at a 40-seat gain for Republicans rather than a 50-seat one. Quite the difference.

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

Then there's all the seats he didn't poll
He only polled 42, so this is only 51 seats accounted for. But there are probably 40 more Democratic-held seats in play, and I think the GOP will take about 10 of them. So that gets you to 50.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
The problem is...
I agree that there are 40 others in play, but he specifically said there were about 15 "too far gone".  I don't doubt the GOP could pick up a few seats (maybe even 15) on the margin (ones that are classified as lean or even likely D) but those aren't the ones he's specifically referencing in the writeup.  Other than the few mentioned in the diary like TN-6, which other ones are 100% gone but he didn't poll?
[ Parent ]
But
R's are going to lose some of these 42 as well. Many are very close.
[ Parent ]
Alternative explanation
set up the story line for holding the House as a "surprising victory"... leading to shock among Rs, allowing President Obama to get a few more things passed in the next Congress.

I know, I know, I'm probably being too nice...

[ Parent ]
Mark Penn...
will forever be nothing to me.  He is really not such a great pollster.  We all know how his "mircotargeting" worked out several years ago. I guess he is just conforming his predictions to go along with the CW.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
THIS ^^^
Also, he is a slimeball. Also, he is Dick Morris without the political talent. I don't trust anything he does, ever. For example, Jim Marshall may indeed lose, but it won't be by anything near 13 points.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Dick morris has political talent?
How do you explain this?


[ Parent ]
This is essentially Clinton's 1996 winning map w/ flourishes (nm)
nm
[ Parent ]
HA!
If Dick Morris told me the sky was blue, I would go out and check.  That guy is never right.
[ Parent ]
No, he's usually not right,
so I hope he comes out with some predictions of massive gains right before the election. If history is any indication, the Democrats will hold the House and do a lot better than expected in the Senate.

Anyway, that map has some obvious bizarre choices, but it's not that bad. Zeitgeist9000 was on to something when he mentioned 1996.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
He already has...
Last week he said the GOP would win 100 seats!  Nate Silver posted that's the best news Dems could ever get.
[ Parent ]
Link to that
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfro...

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
^ What he said!
I am unaware that Dick Morris has any political talent.....and I really question how he ever worked for Clinton after the wild things I have heard him predict over the last decade.  

Democrat: TN-8
[ Parent ]
Perhaps
Perhaps I should've been more explicit in my sarcasm. By comparing Penn to Morris, I was trying to infer that Penn's political talent amounts to less than zero.  I was not trying to infer that Morris is some kind of political genius. Sarcasm FAIL on my part.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
lol
I remember that map.  Louisiana and Tennessee as tossup?  Arkansas leaning Democratic?  Meanwhile Indiana is leaning Republican despite the numerous polls showing it close?
[ Parent ]
I'm really surprised
to see Marshall down by so much, Spratt too. I figure Edwards has to be closer; otherwise the DCCC wouldn't be wading back into this. The Dakota races match up with my instance, as does the tie in IN-09, but I would have also expect a tie in CO-03.  
I'm really surprised
to see Marshall down by so much, Spratt too. I figure Edwards has to be closer; otherwise the DCCC wouldn't be wading back into this. The Dakota races match up with my instance, as does the tie in IN-09, but I would have also expect a tie in CO-03.  
Oh well at this point...
all I have left are my hopes and prayers to make me feel like this is not going to be a disastrous night. :-(

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
It will be fun to see how close or how far off these numbers are, and I suspect...
...we're going to see actual results that vary widely from Penn's numbers, even in races where he picked the right winner.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
This
has made my day. I know a lot of these suck but Baron Hill leads! I think the lib will get a good amount as well. This is a tossup and could go either way but it is encouraging to know Hill is not DOA. On paper he should stand no chance but he has run a good campaign and if he can survive a year like this then he may be around for awhile. The plan was always to redistrict Hill out of existence but with the 8th going R they would have to seriously endanger Buschon to do that. So they may just leave the districts be. Though if Ellsworth runs again they may just count Buschon as DOA anyway and go ahead with the gerrymander. IDK.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
I'm gonna have to
look at the map again to get an idea of that scenario.  
[ Parent ]
Pretty simple.
Just take out most of Bloomington and put it in the 8th while putting the conservative outskirts of the 8th into the 9th. They would be screwing Buschon if they did that though. That was the plan when both Hill and Ellsworth were both in Congress. Don't know what happens if Hill and Buschon win though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
So what the 9th district is
now as far as partisan demographics the 8th will become if they redistrict Bloomington into the 8th. The whole west side of Bloomington currently is in the 4th District.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I
couldn't tell yah. I have just heard what I wrote above before. I am no redistricting bluff whatsoever.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I'm gonna have to
look at the map again to get an idea of that scenario.

How does this look for a map designed to help Duschon and Hill?

Photobucket

[ Parent ]
That's
 a pretty nice map. I would be ok with it. The thing is we will likely have no say in redistricting. None, so expect them to screw us in any way they can.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
CO3
That margin is off the Dem internal by somewhere right at the edge of the MoE. We'll see, but it's a tough district to poll, rural and with lots of Latino and young voters. I've never seen a Salazar lose a race at any level (in fact I don't think they have) and I'd be surprised if the first time was to someone John just beat by 20 points. Even accounting for a big R turnout, that's a whole lot of changed minds!  
Better than I expected
Since I have the Dems losing every one of these seats except for IA-3.
Wait, how does this mean a "50 seat gain" for GOP?
Many of the results were close. And the GOP candidate only led in 31 of the 42 polls. I call BS on Penn's "analysis". Why, oh why, did Hillary Clinton ever hire this jerk?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
See my "analysis" of Penn's talents ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
He should forever be confined to the dustbin of "what not to do" in polling and campaign management.  He still does political commentary in Wash Post every now and then telling "Democrats what they absolutely must do to win" To which I say, Mark shut the ##@( up!!!!

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
DCCC still running negative ads in IA-03
I've heard a new radio ad against Zaun paid for by DCCC and seen plenty of their tv ads this week. I think Boswell is ahead, but maybe not by 12.

Kind of mind-blowing that Boswell could win while Loebsack could lose.

Well Rothenberg upgraded Boswell to the nearly-safe "favored" category...
...last week.

What's going on there, has Zaun just not run a good campaign?  It's hard to believe the personal stuff regarding his girlfriend and whatnot would have killed him this badly, when so many Repbulican challengers around the country are surviving much worse personal peccadillos than Zaun's.  Some of them are truly horrible people you wouldn't want to associate with on any level, and still voters aren't necessarily holding it against them.  So that leaves me thinking there must be something very wrong with Zaun's campaign, not just his personal history.

What do you think?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
a few things
I've never thought Zaun was a particularly strong candidate, but he did have a base in Polk County, unlike most Republicans who have run against Boswell. His main problem has been money. Most of the big Iowa GOP donors (including people close to Branstad and involved with the American Future Fund) got behind Jim Gibbons in the primary. The NRCC put Gibbons in the young guns program in the spring. When Zaun won the primary, it was embarrassing to those people. Although they don't like Boswell, apparently they don't hate him enough to have rallied around Zaun.

In the spring I talked with some Des Moines business Republican types who were very down on Zaun. I don't know if he made some enemies when he was mayor of Urbandale or what. Another theory is that Latham wants the option of running in the new IA-03, depending on how redistricting lines are drawn, and his path is clearer if Boswell gets re-elected.

With Iowa donors mostly giving to Branstad, and the NRCC not interested in Zaun, he hasn't been able to keep up with Boswell plus $750K in DCCC money.

I question whether Zaun has spent the money he did raise all that wisely. His ads are very cookie-cutter (Pelosi, big government health care), not too different from what Republicans tried and failed to use against Boswell in previous elections.

[ Parent ]
Thanks, those bits and pieces sound sorta OK, but still it's awfully strange...
...they would let this go without more of a fight.

It's not like they knew in the summer this particular seat would be surplusage, not needed to take the House.

If there's a strong bias within the Iowa GOP to let Latham have the GOP nod for the Polk County-based seat in 2012, then that would make sense, but that's undermined by their having wanted Jim Gibbons so badly in the primary since they presumably would be working hard for him now.

The notion of a grudge after Gibbons lost also doesn't make a lot of sense.  The NRCC had a bunch of preferred candidates lose primaries only to fully back the primary winners, some of whom now are primed to win.  Zaun on paper is a ton more credible than a lot of the jokers the NRCC is backing full-throated.

And I understand the focus on Branstad and their wanting to win back the Governorship, but that's true in a bunch of states where there's still plenty of money for House candidates.  There's so much money available for campaigns these days that there's no excuse for not having enough if you're a credible candidate.

It's all very strange.  The only explanation that would fully make sense to me would be that Zaun is simply running a bad campaign and not doing what a candidate and campaign need to do.

But you didn't identify that as a likely culprit, so I'm left without a clear explanation.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
who knows?
Maybe Latham and Gibbons had an understanding that Gibbons would stand aside in 2012 if need be. Latham is a close buddy of Boehner.

Or maybe the NRCC figures this seat wouldn't be a long-term gain even if they beat Boswell, because Iowa will lose a seat in redistricting.

Or maybe the Republicans knew about some of this Zaun baggage and figured why waste money on him when Boswell is going to pound him on this. But that doesn't explain why Gibbons didn't use any of the material against Zaun during the primary campaign.

I don't think Zaun is running that good a campaign, but even if he were, he would need more resources to beat Boswell.

[ Parent ]
I Live In This District And Have Described The Situation Before.....
Boswell came out of the box with very effective lines of attack that simultaneously anchored Zaun mouthing untenable laissez faire policy positions caught on videotape while simultaneously making him look like a total cartoonish stooge.  After a few weeks of this battering, it was hard for me to see how Zaun could rehabilitate himself.  There's a minor controversy about an ex-girlfriend who requested a restraining order, but what really got him were the barrage of ads by Boswell.  After seeing his milquetoast efforts in the past, never would I have expected to see him run a textbook campaign for how to survive as an embattled incumbent in a tough climate.  
[ Parent ]
You're in IA-03??? Where? I grew up in Ames and Marshalltown. But regarding this race, I'm still surprised...
...a bunch of good ads would render Boswell THIS safe.

Again, we have bunches of incumbents who are airing equally good ads attacking GOP challengers with a LOT more baggage than Zaun, and yet those incumbents are struggling.

But Zaun, the GOP has given up on him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I Live In Ankeny, Just North Of Des Moines....
I've been here for five years.  Moved here from MN-01.

Central Iowa just doesn't strike me as a hotbed of Tea Party rage sufficient to dump a moderate Democrat for a wingnut.  The fact that our unemployment rate is half that of the national average doesn't hurt either.

[ Parent ]
IA-03
Isn't this district going to be eliminated in redistricting?  I suspect that we will see a Dem-Dem race in 2012 (Boswell against either Loebsack or Braley) and a prompt Boswell retirement.  

Maybe that's why the GOP did not make this seat a big priority.  

[ Parent ]
Iowa will lose a seat but it won't be Dem-Dem, it will be Dem-Rep......
Iowa uses fully nonpartisan redistricting, there is no gerrymandering.

And the logical new map can't combine Polk County with any Eastern Iowa population centers, so Boswell would not be put up against Braley or Loebsack.

The most likely thing is to put Boswell against Tom Latham, but that endangers Latham by making his district a little more Democratic and bringing all the ambitious Polk County Democratic up-and-comers into the fray to challenge him.  Any district that includes Polk County is a challenge for Republicans; not an insurmountable one by any stretch, but more challenging than what Latham must deal with now.

Depending on how the map is drawn, Democrats will have a real opportunity to take a 3-1 advantage in the House delegation.  I think it's hard to draw a nonpartisan map that doesn't give Eastern Iowa 2 seats and central Iowa its own seat.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Boswell might retire
He's no youngster.
[ Parent ]
Sure, but honestly that doesn't make life easier for Latham......
A nonpartisan 4-seat map that doesn't give Polk County to either Steve King or Tom Latham is virtually impossible.  And Latham is the more logical choice since his district already has more of the nearby counties.  All 4 districts will take in extra counties, but King's logically would just add more rural counties.  Any way you cut it, redistricting is going to make either Latham's or King's district more Democratic by putting Polk County in it, and Democrats will be better positioned in it and licking their chops.  Honestly if they put Polk County in Steve King's turf, he will either retire or be defeated soundly; King will get badly destroyed in Polk.

And regarding retirements, everyone just assumes Boswell will be the first to retire, but frankly it's perfectly plausible it could be Latham, instead.  He's been in Congress longer than Boswell, and he hardly ever has to deal with a serious challenge in spite of having a purple district (Obama won it easily and Kerry lost it only narrowly).  He could easily decide he doesn't want to have to fight that much harder for reeelection every 2 years.  Boswell is used to it.

While it's sad to see Iowa lose a seat, I'm actually looking forward to a new map that is as likely to reduce the GOP as us, it will be tough for Republicans going forward to hold more than a single seat I think.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Latham is likely to run in IA-03
Even if Story County isn't in the new IA-03, I think Latham would move to IA-03 if he has to to avoid a primary against Steve King.

There's almost no way to put Polk County with Cedar Rapids/Iowa City or any of the large cities in Braley's district.

I think Boswell would retire rather than run against Latham. I don't think he would have a good chance against Latham--Dems are better off running someone else. Christie Vilsack is widely expected to run.

[ Parent ]
It seems Mark Penn
is just engaging in that whole storyline "The Republicans are definitely going to take over the House" without bringing the evidence to back it up. It's the same thing pundits and prognosticators have been engaging in all year. Ergo, Charlie Cook all the way back in February 2010.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Now, I may be a simple country lawyer, but whenever some one says one of the political parties is going to wrest control of the House from the other party, I actually like to see the hardcore evidence that backs up that claim. So that it can either be accepted as true, or cross examined and found to be untrue.    

Dale Bumpers?
Is that you, hah.
[ Parent ]
Standard of review
You say mark Penn has not brought the evidence to back up the claim that the GOP will take back the house.  Whether the GOP can  "definitely" take back the house is impossible to prove--will the world "definitely" still exist tomorrow?  As to whether GOP house control is more likely than not,  he has surveyed 17,000 likely voters in 42 districts.  He found 31 of the dems trailing. That sounds like he has brought a lot more to the table than anyone here.

Taken with the well-documented generic ballot data, the likelihood that seats not surveyed will flip whether it is  because they have been all but conceded or other polling shows it, the views of political pundits like cook, and political insiders interviewed by national journal, it is not unreasonable to think the house is likely to flip.

Moreover, in light of the available data, the claim that all of the above are incorrect seems to be a claim that requires "hardcore evidence"--which, apparently, is not satisfied by conducting dozens of polls.      

[ Parent ]
Are you racking up your...
points for posting Republican talking points on the blog?

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
You know, I've had my share of times when...
...I've been short-fused with Republican commenters here or those I suspect are Republicans, but I'll actually say in this instance right in ny isn't too bad in that particular comment.

It's quite reality-based to say Republicans are highly likely to take the House, and not very reality-based to say the odds aren't strongly with them.

Again, it's unusual for me to defend a Republican here, but in this instance that really wasn't bad.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
31 Dems trailing...
...isn't any hardcore evidence that Republicans are going to take over the House since they would need 8-10 more Dems trailing to make that happen. So whether Penn has brought a lot more information to the table than anyone else is beside the point. What he has brought, in itself, is not hardcore evidence of the 39-41ish gain that is needed for the Repubs to take control. The standard for hardcore evidence would be polls showing Dems trailing in enough seats that it means the Repubs would take over.  

Now, as The Hill article says, there's an additional 15 seats that the paper and Penn consider too far gone to poll, but it's not hardcore evidence if you don't even specifically name the seats. Are we supposed to take The Hill's/Penn's word that there really are 15 Dem seats too far gone? Because if we are, taking someone's else's word isn't evidential in any sense.

The other things you have mentioned (nation generic ballot, the views of other political insiders) don't even apply to what I said because Penn didn't even mention them. If he had mentioned them, I would've pointed out that he's not bringing any hardcore evidence because 1) relying on the word of Cook, or any other person isn't evidential (we're relying on someone else's word again) and 2) a national poll of any sort (generic ballot or not) is only evidence in the minimal possible sense since it's not a poll of what is being discussed: House districts.

I really don't feel that I am obligated to offer any evidence for anything since virtually nothing has been positively brought for me to make a case against. I will concede that the national generic ballot is something minimal in terms of evidence, but then again, Penn didn't mention it.

[ Parent ]
House control
For what it is worth, cook recently mentioned that fully one-quarter of incumbent dems have been behind in some poll and half under 50%. Will all of them lose?  Of course not. Are all the polls legit?  Same answer as before.  But, they don't all need to be (and check out the polls out of nh-1 in 2006, some surprises can happen in wave elections).  

Those horse race numbers taken with the generic ballot and the president's approval ratings don't look good for the dems.  As a result, many people close to the action and with a big stake in the action to conclude that the GOP is likely to take the house. Some examples:  cook et als' evaluations; insiders interviewed by national journal pretty much mirror the assesments made in 2006; improved fundraising by republicans--not all donors are ideological, many pick winners--despite being out of power (look where wall steert's dollars are going compared to 2008); dc lobbying firms becoming a lot more interested in GOP-connected applicants;  murmurings from behind the scenes of maneouvering for after the election (I don't think many McCain staffers were fighting over white house jobs in 08...).

Placed in that context, Penn's polls--by and large--suggest that dems may be headed to catastrophic losses.  You are correct that Penn's polls in a vacuum don't point to losing the house, only 31 seats. I don't think the series of polls is intended to stand alone to prove the point, instead it is tohelp fill in the picture. Also, applying your thinking, penn's polls Exclude 393 seats from consideration and did not provide any evidence that Nancy Pelosi, Jose Serrano, Kevin McCarthy, or Paul Broun will be reelected.  Only our assumptions can guide us on these races.

The overall point that I was trying to make is that, at this point, while the dems may well keep the house, that position is the one that flies in the face of cw and available data.  As a result, it probably needs a lot of compelling evidence to be convincing.    

On the GOP talking points thing--no, I am not here to rail about "pelosi's puppets" or anything like that. I am interested in politics and have found this board to be an interesting one--not too strident, lots of available data.   Occasionally, I like to chime in.
         

[ Parent ]
Mark Penn thinks...
...if Republicans win the national popular vote in House races, they win all 435 seats.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
Mark
Penn probably thinks the earth is flat.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
The earth is flat
and the sun revolves around the earth.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Now that was the perfect insult for that idiot.

[ Parent ]
God, don't even remind me ...

[ Parent ]
At best, I see the GOP getting right to the 39 they need
Only because it seems as if the GOP is hitting the target some places and missing it in others. It takes a certain combination of seats for big gains and I think the GOP isn't quite there and is likely head to a 1-2 seat majority in the House.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Marshall internal says he's 3 ahead
http://blogs.ajc.com/political...

Which means he's behind.

Not necessarily. Private polling intended to be released
publicly usually has a built-in bias, but if the private polling was just for the campaign it shouldn't have a bias.
[ Parent ]
Personally, I doubt it
I have a lot of skepticism over most public polling of house races, compared with where the DCCC thinks they're at.  With Marshall, they released an internal showing a double digit lead back in September, and didn't spend heavily on his behalf.  You see a similar pattern with VA-09, SD-AL, and NJ-03.  With the latter two, the polling lead clearly evaporated to the point where the DCCC went up on air, VA-09 not so much.

With GA-08, relatively little outside spending has poured in, and Marshall still had a two-to-one COH advantage two weeks ago.  It's my belief that he's in far better shape than the Hill poll shows, but I guess we'll see soon.

[ Parent ]
I guess that subject line should be "Personally, I doubt it means he is behind"

[ Parent ]
Colorado Senate
New numbers for Colorado Senate done by RBI strategies for the Colorado Pols website

Bennet 43
Buck   42

matching almost every other poll out there.

http://coloradopols.com/diary/...

I really don't understand
how a poll this late in the race could show so many undecideds. From the write-up, it's clear they included leaners, so I'm not sure what the issue is. Could there really be THAT many people on the fence? (Other polls don't support this.)

Still, I'm encouraged. Both candidates seem to be consolidating their bases, and as in other polls, Bennet has the advantage among indies:

Bennet holds a 41% to 34% advantage among Unaffiliated voters.

[ Parent ]
No, that's about right
If my GOTV experience is any indication. Both candidates are roundly disliked, and those who do like one or the other have already voted. It's down to which side can beg, plead, and cajole their people a little better. The candidates have been absolutely trashed (you have no idea what it's been like.)
[ Parent ]
What Don't They Like About Bennet.....
.....seems like an easy-to-like fella to me.
[ Parent ]
Democratic firm
[ Parent ]
My other question about this is...
that the GOP did not do as well in the special elections that they should have won.  For instance, I just knew that Critz was going to lose but he won.  I am not talking about the HI race because that was special and I just cannot imagine the Tea Baggers being a factor in that CD.  

Also, Deeds in VA pissed a lot of people off.  Wilder would not endorse him and even greenlighted blacks in VA not to go out to vote for him.  He blew Obama off until the very end.  He also ran a pathetic campaign whereas Warner won when Bush was at the height of his popularity.  Same with Coakley and a lackluster performance...(but this was a senate race).

Is the GOP really that great at turnout to pull off that many wins?  I know that their voters are "enthusiastic" whatever that means but a vote is a vote once you get the person to the polls.  

I guess you could say that it does not require that much coordination when it is more like 435 indvidual races versus one race countrywide. But they have some people working who are not experienced at politics and therefore, not experienced at GOTV.  

Who is running their GOTV? Just thinking out loud here...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

Normally the RNC does the GOTV operations
for the NRCC and the NRSC. However, due to mismanagement and poor fundraising, they are mostly relying on the RGA and outside groups to do GOTV. That is one area the Democrats have a significant advantage or the GOP. How much of an advantage we don't know yet though.
[ Parent ]
VA-11: a couple comments from Northern Virginians who have connections......
Regarding that DCCC ad buy, state Senator Chap Petersen, whose district includes some or all of VA-11, blogs on his "Ox Road South" personal blog:

I'd say the Congressional election in the 11th CD is very close.   Despite having a decided edge in the debates that I've attended, Congressman Connolly is fighting a headwind this year.  I'll just leave it at that.

This doesn't sound too good, and the panicky part of me wants to interpret it to mean Connolly might even be behind, but then I remember that what people write doesn't always match what they're thinking, as we all are a bit imprecise and don't realize how our word choice comes across sometimes.

Meanwhile, Ben Tribbett, who owns the "Not Larry Sabato" blog, tweets:

Fimian is running one of the worst campaigns ever seen in NoVA- and is still in the race because Gerry isn't likeable enough 2 put him away.

Ben's comment has to be taken with a grain of salt for 2 reasons.  First, Ben has a lot of childish and petty personal grudges against various Democratic elected officials, and Gerry Connolly is one of them.  Ben's grudges badly pollute and distort his perspective on the people he holds them against, so his comment on Connolly's likeability shouldn't be accepted at face value.  Second, Ben is routinely prone to extreme hyperbole.  So his description of Fimian's campaign shouldn't necessarily be accepted at face value.  With these caveats in mind, I still include this here because Ben does have political connections and hears things from insiders, so there MIGHT be some value to this.

Ultimately I'll be very surprised if we lose VA-11, but I no longer know what to expect and I'm TRYING to brace myself for ugly surprises, as hard as it is.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Okay now call me
terrified...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Well, ultimately this probably doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know......
If it wasn't close, the DCCC wouldn't make a $1 million TV buy for one week.  So the tea leaf quotes I just included are ultimately redundant of the TV buy tea leaf.

The thing that is hurting us in Virginia this year is that nothing else is on the ballot but these U.S. House races and a few oddball scattered local and special elections.  So these Congressmen have to manufacture their own turnout.  And the state party was so abysmal in field organization last year, doing nothing at all until after Labor Day, that the campaigns have to rely on themselves.

This is different from, say, New York, where John Hall and Mike Arcuri and Scott Murphy and Bill Owens and others can count on the fact of an open seat Governorship and both U.S. Senate seats being on the ballot to drive turnout.  It doesn't matter too much that they're blowouts, they are high-profile enough that people will show up to vote.

So Connolly has to do this on his own.

And I suspect he ultimately will, and will win.

But we're gonna endure some painful individual defeats on Tuesday, so we gotta be ready for that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
your logic
Is also why I fear a bit more for the NJ races.  This is the first time since '98 that there hasn't been a winning Democrat on top of the Congressional Candidates (Obama/Menendez/Kerry/Lautenberg/Gore-Corzine). It's the first time they've had to lead the ticket since then.  I hope they are up to it.
[ Parent ]
Yup, I always forget that about NJ this year, but yes it's the same thing. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Interesting
I think given the climate of the environment it will be closer then what it should be but I really don't see Connolly losing this one. As I have said before he has a relatively high name ID given his time on the Fairfax BOS, this is a district where the demographic changes favor Democrats and most importantly the hurdle to advertise in the DC market is very steep. I don't think that Connolly has a ton of charisma but a House race with the money hurdle it a hurdle that he can overcome. One dynamic that we can't underestimate is that there are no other races going on that would spike turnout. Democrats are not energized to vote for Governor or Senate races so Connolly is on his own here. Webb and Warner have been campaigning with him a lot so that has to help. I know we discussed this earlier but many of us in the DC area have not seen an avalanche of great ads against Connolly. I do like and respect Chap a lot so I'll take him at his word. I wonder if it is in part that he is needing to gin up turnout with nothing else on the ballot to ensure the race doesn't slip away without warning. Interesting analysis.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
VA-11
I just can't imagine a Tea Party sales pitch like Fimian's working in this district. Parts of it are even inside the Beltway and there are a ton of government workers who live there. It's certainly nowhere near as liberal as VA-08 and goes down into Prince William, but Democrats have been so successful recently most of the time even in that county.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
Problems with SC-05 poll
Two things:

1) This poll began back on Oct 16. Since then Mulvaney's been hit hard on SC-05 airwaves over his Edenmoor problem and his libertarian voting record on Social Security.

2) The AA share in this poll is only 22%. African Americans make up 31% of registered voters in the Fifth District. In '08, SC-05 turnout was 33% AA. No one thinks it'll be this high again, but it will be more than 22%.

The Spratt campaign's more recent tracking polls show the race a dead heat -- which given the DCCC's new $255K ad buy -- seems far more inline with what we're seeing here in SC.

15 too far gone seats
AR-02, IN-08, LA-03, TN-06, NY-29, KS-03, OH-01, OH-16, TX-15, ND-AL, MS-01, WI-08, FL-08, FL-02, FL-24, AZ-01 are 16 too far gone seats where the Republican has a strong edge.
edit
TX-17, ND-AL, and FL-02 are already on the list. He didn't mention PA-07, AZ-05, or PA-10, though.
[ Parent ]
At least a few of those are NOT "too far gone" per recent information......
Stu Rothenberg wrote a column within the past week about recent surprises, where some Dems thought dead have made comebacks and still can win, and others thought safe have become newly vulnerable.

AZ-01 and and AZ-05 (as well as ND-AL but you backtracked on that one) are among those Rothenberg discussed as back from the dead.

And another piece I read combined with other tea leaves such as October polls and new party committee ad buys support that PA-07 has become competitive, Lentz has a serious path to victory against Meehan.

I don't study ad buys closely like some SSPers, but I bet there are others back from the dead based on October ad buys.

Maybe Penn picked his list based on early September analysis or some such thing and never thought to revisit it, but that is professionally lazy and incompetent...but that's what I expect of Penn so it would explain it perfectly.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Last Round of Hill House Polls | 79 comments

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