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SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 3:47 PM EDT


• CA-Sen: Best wishes to Carly Fiorina, who's temporarily off the campaign trail and in the hospital after an infection associated with reconstructive surgery that she had over the summer after recovering from breast cancer. She's says she'll be back in action soon.

• CO-Sen: The Democrats in Colorado have filed an FEC complaint with Ken Buck, alleging illegal coordination. The coordination was between Buck and Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund (which has spent $370K here so far). This doesn't look likely to get addressed before Election Day, though.

• KY-Sen: Rand Paul eventually got around, today, to cutting ties with and condemning a volunteer involved in assaulting a MoveOn activist before last night's debate, outside the venue. An activist trying to give a fake award to Paul was shoved to the ground and kicked/trampled.

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle has always been the prime example of the GOP's apparent strategy for its more troublesome candidates (which is to have them hide from the media), but this is a little extreme: all manner of sleight-of-hand was used at a Reno appearance to keep her away from about 40 reporters who were looking for her, to the extent of using a decoy to get into her official vehicle while she left through a side door. Also, here's an interesting catch, especially since Angle supposedly has a lot of cash these days: her latest filing has nothing about salaries for her staff. Oversight, or is there more of a burn rate problem than we'd been led to believe?

• WA-Sen: This CQ article is your generic this-race-is-tight-and-important piece, but it has a few interesting tidbits buried in it: one, Patty Murray's internals have her up "around 4," although that's all we get to find out. And two, this election is already effectively more-than-half over: the state SoS's office says that 50% of all voters have submitted their ballots, on track for turnout of at least 66%, which would be third-highest non-presidential turnout ever in the state. (I assume you all know which party tends to do better in higher-turnout models.) Finally, Dino Rossi's doing a little hiding from the media himself: on a conference call with reporters, Rossi actually refused to say where he was calling from, just that he was "traveling all over right now." (Maybe we should be looking for the guy in the red and white striped shirt?)

• VT-Gov: Biden alert! Here's one election where every single vote will count (seeing as how it has fewer constituents than most House districts), and the veep is trying to roust out some votes with a Burlington appearance with Dem nominee Peter Shumlin the day before the election.

• CA-47: This was a weird election even before this, with stark racial overtones, and now it's even weirder: an independent candidate, Cecilia Iglesias, is making her presence known with a TV ad buy (although just on local cable on Univision). Who will this hurt? The GOP says it'll hurt Loretta Sanchez, because it splits the Latino vote. The Dems say it'll hurt Van Tran, since Iglesias is a "known Republican."

• CT-05: Hmm, here's a novel strategy for dealing with ads from third party groups that contain blatant lies: push back against them, and TV stations just may stop running them. That's what happened in Connecticut, where the American Action Network's ads against Chris Murphy got taken down, by Fox-CT (on cable) no less. (The ad is part of the series saying that you can go to jail for not having health insurance.)

• VA-05: This is big all around: that the President is stumping on behalf of a House candidate (albeit one within a helicopter ride away from DC), and that said House candidate in a red district is welcoming him. In case you didn't guess, it's Tom Perriello, who'll be rallying UVA students with the Prez in Charlottesville.

• American Crossroads: Here's part of the Crossroads road map for the last week: at a cost of $3 million altogether, they're moving into NC-11, NY-20, and GA-02, as well as continuing their presence in HI-01 and NY-22. They're also launching ads in CA-20, IN-02, MO-03, ND-AL, TN-04, OH-16, and TX-23.

• SSP TV:
• KY-Sen: The NRSC and Rand Paul both turn the tables on Jack Conway, saying he wants to talk about Paul's checkered past (i.e. Aqua Buddha) to avoid talking about Obama
• NV-Sen: The NRSC is out with a rather incoherent ad about how Harry Reid fancies himself a superhero, while Sharron Angle's out with another border-themed ad with menacing shadowy men who, of course, aren't actually Latino
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak's closing argument cites his independence
• WV-Sen: Thank God for trackers... Joe Manchin's camp strings together John Raese's greatest hits at various appearances to demonstrate his "crazy" ideas
• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown wins the jujitsu black belt for his closing ad (if not the overall Zen master award for his whole campaign): unlike the very busy Manchin ad, he only needs one quote from Meg Whitman to make his own case for himself... she says she came to California 30 years ago because it back then it was a land of opportunity and it worked (uh, Meg? who was governor of California 30 years ago?)
• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal's closing ad says Roy Barnes is too ambitious, and Deal is just a humble public servant
• TX-Gov: Bill White's new ad says 10 years is too long, playing the dread "career politician" card on Rick Perry
• MA-10: The DCCC's new ad in the 10th goes after Jeff Perry's controversial police sergeant tenure, in case anyone there was unaware of it
• OH-18: Zack Space goes after Bob Gibbs on outsourcing and immigration
• VA-05: The Sierra Club's out with an ad bolstering Tom Perriello
• CA-Init: I'm not sure I thought I'd live to see the day where there ads running in favor of the legalization of marijuana, but apparently the Yes on 19 campaign was able to scrape together enough stems and seeds for a TV buy

• Rasmussen Classic:
• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 46%
• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 39%, Nathan Deal (R) 49%, John Monds (L) 5%
• NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 42%, Susana Martinez (R) 52%
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%
• SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 58 21%, Jim DeMint (R-inc) 21 58%, Some other 15%
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 53%

• New Rasmussen (aka Fox/Pulse):
• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) 44%
• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 39%, Bill Brady (R) 44%, Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%
• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%, Mark Kirk (R) 43%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%
• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 43%, Rand Paul (R) 50%
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 47%
• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 46%, John Raese (R) 48%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Afternoon Edition) | 450 comments
HOLY SHIT ALVIN GREENE IS BEATING DEMINT BY 37 POINTS?!?!
If only...

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
looks like Greene's message got out there
Jim DeMint started the recession = winning message

(in reality, DeMint's numbers went down, Greene's numbers stayed the same. He could win with 23%, provided that 55% of voters split their votes amongst write-in candidates)

Could you imagine the fun we could be having if Alvin Greene got free political ads? And yes, the Greene Machine will beat his polling numbers, I think some of his "I don't know who this guy is" vote will come out and people probably don't feel like admitting that they're so partisan that they'd vote for Alvin Greene over Jim DeMint.

If only there was a NOTA option in South Carolina.

[ Parent ]
Honestly
If I lived in SC, I think I would actually vote for Greene.  Just for the hell of it.  He'd liven up CSpan2 for sure.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Is he first on the ballot?
That seems to be all it takes to win in South Carolina.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Nah, it's alphabetical
DeMint would be first. It would be funny if lightning struck twice though.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
so Clements, the Green Party guy will win?
   since he is most alphabetically advantaged. Reminds me of how in Rhode Island a local official changed his name from Russo to aRusso to help his campaign. I will never run in SC since my last name is almost as far from the beginning of the alphabet as my first...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
I'll wager Clements gets more votes than Greene.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
actually
the ballot lists the Green Party first, so the Green candidate is listed first, DeMint second, Greene third.

Seriously, the straight ticket option has the Greens first, Republicans second, Democrats fourth

[ Parent ]
I Hear Thune's In Trouble In SD Too....
A George McGovern write-in campaign is really catching on.
[ Parent ]
That's a nice idea, but he moved out of SD
   McGovern was in CT for awhile but I think he now lives in FL. Maybe he is in SD part time?

 (Or maybe you are just being flippant...)

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Ah, McGovern.
My grandmother usually votes Republican, but she hated Nixon so much that she voted for McGovern and even bought a yard sign.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure
Pretty sure that he's being flippant. I'm also sure that even if McGovern does live in Florida, it's still a good idea to run a McGovern write-in campaign, regardless of whether he is actually legally eligible to be a Senator from South Dakota (Wikipedia says "part-time resident" of St. Augustine Beach, FL, near Jacksonville). But I'm betting Senator John "Death With A Tan" Thune would get a surprisingly low margin in such a scenario. Oh yes, of course Death Thune would win, but I'd like to think we'd all be surprised by the margin.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
CA - PPP
Boxer 52, Fiorina 43

Brown 53, Whitman 42

Prop 19 losing, 48 to 45.

WA-07, 34 years old

Yeah but
Prop 19 must have some sort of underpolling effect. Pot heads are either too paranoid to openly admit to a pro-pot opinion, or are too lazy to be considered enthusiastic in LV terms. If they're going to vote once in their lives, it'll be this election.
[ Parent ]
That
Prop 19 ad...boy could they of brought some other former police chief to speak because his voice sounds really bad...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
PPP is a robopoll.
I can see them not wanting to admit it to a live interviewer, but to a recording?  Less likely.
[ Parent ]
idk,...I saw the Simpsons...
"Oh man I can't believe we spaced on the date!"
[ Parent ]
exactly
never put your eggs in the basket of potheads or young voters, they'll break your heart almost every time.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Prop 19 supporters
Prop 19 supporters are too damn high.
[ Parent ]
I have started to notice that young people (Pro Pot) are starting to be against 19
Because they think it isn't good enough.  I've told them they shouldn't make perfection the enemy of progress, but it's hard to reason with these people.

I think that prop 19 will fail now, if the prop can't even attract it's targeted demographic, how will it pass with +65 people voting?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
It
might be they really don't care if Prop 19 passes or not. Me and some of my classmates in math class asked this one guy who we called "Weedman" what he thought of Prop 19. And the guy said, "I don't really care." I mean lets face it, young people smoking weed is like young people drinking at parties. Everyone knows they do it, even the police. The police will bust them if they do it, but they already bust you if they catch you drinking at parties, plus Schwarzenegger signed a bill recently that treated pot possession up to a certain amount like a traffic ticket.

And the main argument of Prop 19, it'll help bring in revenue and shut down the drug cartels washes over young people. Young people aren't old enough to care as much about the government getting more money to stop deep cuts in schools like someone like my mom does. And knowing that their weed came from the drug cartels won't keep them up at night feeling guilty that their money is being used to fund the bullets for AK-47's, etc.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
here's the question to ask ourselves about potheads voting
If they are already smoking pot every day, do they really need Prop 19 to pass in the first place?
[ Parent ]
jfc.... I saw the title
and immediately thought of bad things in Kampuchea....
[ Parent ]
No no no; the Dead Kennedys song for this election is
    "California Uber Alles", not "Holiday in Cambodia".

 (The first song was about Jerry Brown when he was first Governor. Sample lyric: "You will jog for the Master Race, and always wear a Happy Face". Later revisions of the song added lyrics about Reagan and Ahhhnold.)

  Weird thing about Jerry (no longer listed as "Edmund G. Brown Jr.", his birth name.) After Tuesday he will be the answer to both these trivia questions: Who was the youngest person elected CA-Gov? and Who was the oldest?  I first voted for CA-Gov in 1978 which was his re-election, I was too young in '74 when he was first elected.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Tell them the price will go down if it passes (eom)

[ Parent ]
It looks like
California will be good for Democrats. I don't care how big Whitman's turnout machine is, those don't make up nearly double digit deficits, and the fact she's having to release internal polling showing her only down 3 is just another sign of how she's slipped. Brown, for all the jitters he has given people, knew what he was doing after all. Whitman's insane amount of spending during the primary up till now, some 10,000 dollars an hour since announcing in February of last year, hasn't done the job. It's nice for a rare race, like CA-GOV, and CT-SEN, to prove that you can't just buy elections.  
[ Parent ]
The defeat of Prop 16 in June
   was the precursor to this. 16 was the Pacific Gas and Electric initiative, a purely special interest piece of crap, which was rejected despite the utility spending $46 million to its opponents' less than $100,000. Rich a$$#oles!

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
$10,000 an hour
That makes me want to cry.
[ Parent ]
I just wish
 Someone will poll all the other propositions like Prop 20, 21 and 27. I am glad though that Brown seems to be leading in every poll. Even Faux News has him up by nine.

Prop 19 is a tough nut to crack though because it really depends on who will vote and how many people do not want to admit they support it.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
I'm feeling a bimodal distribution building
aka -- for the House, I think it will be either

Ds lose 25-30 seats

or

Ds lose 55-60 seats

something always seems to happen in the last few days before an election.

It could be a simple as OfA being effective in unexpected ways... or voters just deciding to throw out the party in power.

hmmm...
But of course, we should be reminded that it's historically rare for a political party to have a net gain of 40+ House seats in one general election. Actually, it's a pretty good argument for the Repubs not being able to pull it off.
[ Parent ]
If
the Democrats can combine a strong ground game, coattails of some type, and a little luck, I'd say it is not absurd to think they can hold the House. It just so happens that a lot of the seats are concentrated in Ohio, New York, and Pennsylvania, where you could make a reasonable argument that the ground game of the party and the coattails will help. And some that are likely to fall amongst the first batch can also be affected in positive ways but are spread out enough to have uniquely bad circumstances dragging them down contained. All of this is helped by the huge buffer the Democrats now have.

I'm not saying it is necessarily that likely, just that it is a lot less ridiculous than a very general view would indicate--unless all of those factors I described above can easily be discounted. So far, that doesn't seem to be the case.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
If Democrats hold the House...
Organized labor will be why. Democrats have the infrastructure for an overwhelming ground game in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York, three of the media's "Slaughterhouse Five" (the other two are Florida and Arizona, where there are a few upset opportunities in AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-07, FL-12, and FL-25). But if it doesn't kick in with enough force, they're going to get cleaned out of the rural parts of those states.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Actually that's not a good argument.
The fact that it hasn't happen much doesn't prove anything about future results. How many first term midterms have there been in the modern political area? A midterm which is occuring after a 5 year run by the presidents party? Not many. The evidence that claim is based on is very small.

When I hear that argument I get scared. If thats the best we have the Dems are gonna be in a world of hurt on Nov 2nd.

[ Parent ]
but there have never been so many seats in play
Right now all the "experts" say that there are over 100 seats in play.  When there are over 100 seats in play, to win 40 is not a major accomplishment.

That said, I am getting the feeling that either:
A.) The Democrats lose 25-35 seats in the house and 5 or 6 in the Senate
B.) The Democrats lose 60-70 seats in the house and lose 11 or 12 seats in the Senate

What makes a wave election, is not how big the leads in the individual race polls, but how every close race seems to break to one party or the other.  If this truly is a wave election and Republicans win every race within say 2 or 3 points like Democrats did the last two years.  The loses for the Democrats will be at historic levels across the board.

That said, I am actually starting to think that Democrats will lose some seats but keep control of both the House and the Senate.

[ Parent ]
Notes
1. That MA-10 ad is D-Trip, not NRCC.
2.  BidenWatch: PA-07 tomorrow. His second event for Bryan Lentz; he and Pelosi also did a joint fundraiser for Lentz/DCCC on July 19.
3. What could Feingold have done differently?  Sigh.
darn
I was looking forward to the NRCC putting their spin on Jeff Perry's history.
[ Parent ]
PA-10
New Lycoming College Poll has Carney +6, up from Carney +3 a few weeks ago. Sorry, but I can't link....

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Link
[ Parent ]
KY-Sen: Holy crap this is bad.
PPP now has Rand Paul up by 13 points, 53%-40%.

There's been no change in Rand Paul's favorability numbers in the wake of the controversial 'Aqua Buddha' ad. He's at a net +6 (49/43), virtually identical to his +5 (45/40) a month ago. Jack Conway has seen his numbers plunge though. Where before voters split evenly in their assessments of him, giving him a favorability of 36/36, they now view him mostly in a negative light at -13 (39/52).

There's little doubt the ad has backfired. 56% of voters say they think it was inappropriate to only 15% who think it was alright. Even Democrats feel by a 41/24 spread that it crossed the line and perhaps relating back to Conway's huge new deficit with independents they think it was wrong by a 68/7 spread.

Now if Conway hadn't aired that ad, and then that Paul supporter stomped on that woman....

If he hadn't aired it
He would have lost by 5 instead of ten.
[ Parent ]
We
will see. I still say he loses by 5-7 and he would have lost by 5-7 had the ad never been made. Honestly the press has not been that bad. I honestly do not think it hurt him much if at all and if he does lose by 10 he would have without the ad. It's the mood and the lean of the state.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
This is just strange
though, because other polls earlier last week showed the race tightening, even Rasmussen I believe, and the suggestion was that maybe the Aqua Buddha ad was effective.

I still think there are loads more effective ads that could be made with Paul's own words; such as him decrying the minimum wage, social security, drug problems, farm subsidies, or disability payments.  

[ Parent ]
Hasn't that already been done?

[ Parent ]
I haven't been seeing it
and if it has I can't believe it wasn't effective. I mean, voters can't possibly be that blindly furious with the Obama administration. The state depends heavily on farm subsidies, drug issues are huge in East Kentucky, Paul's stance on the Civil Rights act is offensive to Louisville, and there are loads of conservative east Kentucky voters who are very pro-minimum wage, and pro-disability payments as lots of people there are on them.

On the whole I'm beginning to feel Mongiardo would have been the stronger of the two candidates because he would have had an easier time sweeping Eastern Kentucky, while Paul's unexpected implosion would have doomed him in Lexington and Louisville anyway.  

[ Parent ]
Conway was focusing on ecnomics
For months his campaign had a pretty laser-tight focus on Social Security, Medicare, mine safety, etc. It was holding him within striking range of Paul, but it wasn't putting him ahead. Hence the Aqua Buddha attack.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I'd rather have Sen. Paul than Sen. Mongiardo
And you know I'm not one of those ideological purists. But either one would be a major headache for his party, and I'd rather give the GOP a major headache and the Democrats a potentially gettable vote on foreign policy stuff than give the Democrats a major headache and the Republicans an easily gettable vote on absolutely everything.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Paul will vote 100% in lockstep with his party.
That's what Republican Senators do. There are occasional exceptions, but Paul won't be one of them.
[ Parent ]
You think so?
I think that Paul is absolutely arrogant and convinced of his "rightness" on each issue he considers important enough for him to weigh in on.  Matt Taibi (sp?) of Rolling Stone had several great articles on him and the Tea Party in Kentucky.  He just comes across as a spoiled rich brat who is absolutely certain that he is deserving of all the benefits has been given by birth.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
sorry..
"he has been given"

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
The GOP enforces discipline in their caucus.
unlike the "big tent" Dems. If he falls out of line, he'll get stripped of his committee chairs.
[ Parent ]
Why should he?
His most admired senator is Jim Bunning. He's Rep. Ron Paul's brat. He and Sen. McConnell have a famously uneasy relationship. He's dissented from the Republican Party platform to the extreme left on some issues (Afghanistan) and to the extreme right on others (civil rights).

He'll be a complete pain in the ass, essentially the Republicans' version of Sen. Lieberman.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
No he won't. McConnell will strip him of his committee
chairs if he falls out of line. The Dem caucus only makes changes at the beginning of a term. The GOP will strip him mid-term if he falls out of line.  
[ Parent ]
Well Paul will be the
Stormtrooper that bangs his head.
[ Parent ]
I doubt he'll care, frankly. His father doesn't.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
As much as I don't like the guy, Ron Paul is
1000% the man Rand Paul is. Ron believes in his positions and doesn't compromise. Rand has been throwing his beliefs under the nearest bus as he tries to win this race. The Senate also operates very differently than the House. Rand won't buck the party line, because that is what Republicans do. They march in lockstep no matter how idiotic the position. Ron Paul is the only exception to that rule really and he is about as powerful as Kucinich is in our caucus.
[ Parent ]
HAHAHAHAHAHA
"They march in lockstep no matter how idiotic the position."

I have to say, this made me laugh out loud. It's funny because it's true.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
The only reason why Sen. Paul would be beneficial to us
is because he's a walking time-bomb of stupidity.  Let's see what his fool ass does with a Senate seat.  Same with crazy Angle.
[ Parent ]
But, Coburn, Bunning and DeMint have all
been acting like idiots for years now in the Senate and have gotten away with it. There doesn't seem to be repercussions for dumb Republicans.  
[ Parent ]
Bunning
barely got re-elected over a weak state senator in a Republican year and WOULD have lost this year. Coburn and DeMint are from much redder states and can get away with it. Although DeMint is not even that popular. Greene and the Green Party candidate will probably get a combined 40% of the vote on election day, and that is saying something. Oklahoma is the reddest of all of them. Also Coburn is more seasoned about his crazy. Oklahoma is red enough he would beat a credible challenger even if he was more like Angle or stupid acting but he is at least smart, I'll give him that.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Not
Really. He comes with a lot of baggage. Let's just say there's a reason Beshear dumped him from the ticket, and it ain't because he was running for Senate like he says. I don't buy that he would do so great with conservadems and what not. He literally called the KY electorate racist. That would not have gone over well in the GE. And he was an early Obama supporter, which may not be a selling point to conservadems. He supported HCR the same as Conway. The GOP would have done the same hit job they did over Conway to him and they would have had more ammo. Plus, I say this with no disrespect meant, Conway is much more attractive with a young family and wife. He has good looks, a guy you would want to have a beer with. Dan's wife is half his age and he has little personal charm. I do not think that should be an issue but let's be honest here. Plus Conway is a much more effective speaker and fundraiser. Dr. Dan is Lee Fisher in terms of fundraising and getting the base out. He would not have the money to make this thing winnable.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
It's not disrespectful to say
That Conway is much more attractive. Frankly, let's be honest here, it is a fact that Conway is hot as hell for a politician. The second suggested search term when you type in "Jack Conway" into Google Images (after "Jack Conway Kentucky") is "Jack Conway shirtless" (sadly, no, there are no actual pictures of him shirtless).

For comparison, the second suggested search term when you type in "Rand Paul" is "Rand Paul toupee". And it's a fact that people like hot people. They respond better to them. If you're in a popularity contest (welcome to American elections!) it's an asset. It shouldn't be your best/only asset (cough*AaronSchock*cough) but it's helpful nonetheless.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
If the shallow vote lifts Atty. Gen. Conway...
I won't complain. Although I have to say, after that PPP poll, I think he's a pretty long shot.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I'm
thinking this is an outlier. I will need to see more data before I accept this result. PPP could be onto something but I do not think so yet.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
NRSC put about $350K into the race
today, so clearly it does not feel out of the woods.  I'm thinking this is an outlier, particularly with Fox showing Paul up 7 today, Ras showing 5 a few days ago, and a DCCC internal a few days ago showing Conway up 2 long after Aqua Buddha.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
^^^^Agree (nm)
nm
[ Parent ]
maybe the, "what the hell is this" feeling subsided
and people saw Paul's response to the ad and now think Conway is being overly negative.
[ Parent ]
Right.
Healthy skepticism though: PPP is assuming that results from one poll question (the Aqua Buddha question) is the cause of the results in the topline question.

There's actually no logical connection to be drawn from that. Conway's performance could be down for an entirely other reason than Aqua Buddha.

But it's PPP's spin on it, at least.

[ Parent ]
Do you think stomping will sway back the other way? (nm)
nm
[ Parent ]
My first instinct is to say:
Probably not.

I think Conway still has a chance based on other, more important factors though. Like, he's already been elected to a statewide office, and he's running for an open seat.

The last times Dem candidates ran for a US Senate seat in KY (2004 and 2008), they were relative unknowns and they almost won the seats held by incumbents running for re-election.

[ Parent ]
I agree (nm)
nm
[ Parent ]
Another poll
Merriman River Group Poll for Hawaii Civil Beat: HI-GOV: Abercrombie leads 50-45, Abercrombie will win by mid to high single digits.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
Movement back to Abercrombie it seems
Two polls in a row stretching the margin. Those are the guys that underpolled Hanabusa in the special incidentally.
[ Parent ]
Humor alert
Don't you wish that this had happened to your least favorite candidate?

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/20...

Charlie Sheen has been hospitalized voluntarily for intoxication and psychological evaluation after police found him drunk and naked in a trashed midtown hotel suite, sources told 1010 WINS' Carol D'Auria.

Sources told CBS 2 HD that Sheen was higly intoxicated when he was found and had apparently started drinking about 8 p.m. Monday. A mystery woman allegedly called police sometime after 1:30 a.m. from inside the bathroom in the room for help.
The New York Post reported that police officials said the woman was an escort.

Imagine the fun if instead of Charlie Sheen, it said Rand Paul/Jerry Brown/Rick Scott/Joe Miller...etc.

(I know this is off topic, it just struck me as funny.  We all wish for a game change in the closing week in races where our guy/gal is behind and how much fun would it be if this happened?)

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

You mean Allen West's
deranged rants and his suggestions that his supporters, 'Make my opponent afraid to leave his house' don't count as some kind of implosion?

Thankfully FL-22 will prolly narrowly go for Sink, and I don't see such a thing as a Sink-West voter. I'm glad Klein didn't take West for granted this time, like he did in 2008, (winning only 55-45), and West has shown unequivocally how unhinged he is. Not to mention the guy's got a very shady war record.  

[ Parent ]
West
Lets just say I wouldn't be at all shocked no matter what the outcome in FL-22 is in the election.  And I have actually met some Sink-West voters.  My stepmother is one.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
That just baffles my mind
Like if cats were discovered on the moon. As someone who's mind is intensely logical, politics, particularly conservativism, often doesn't make sense at all. I simply don't understand what universe of logic leads a person to support Alex Sink and Allen West. Sink and Klein are effectively comparable, political, and West is just so enormously deranged and abrasive, and radically conservative. How someone votes for him, + Alex Sink, again, doesn't make sense.  
[ Parent ]
It's
It's like this - to some people West comes over as a black Rambo-type.  While it's true that this puts some people off, that's a different type of thing than coming over like a crook.  Some people can deal with you being Rambo more than being a crook.  Plenty of people want to send a message to Washington and a congregational candidate is a much better way to do that than with a governor candidate.  I expect West to outperform Scott in FL-22, but it remains to be seen by how much.
Remember, Sink hasn't really been running against Scott on the issues (and neither has Scott, for that matter.)

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Scott has barely been running against Sink!

[ Parent ]
The biggest difference is that Rambo redeemed himself.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Black Rambo-types...
do not usually get elected in American politics...not in a majority voting district anyway. One of the things we blacks are always afraid of is coming across as is "angry" or "dangerous." These are both extremely unfair caricatures but they are used none the less.  For black women, it is "angry" and black men it is "dangerous."  

Google "angry black woman" and see how many hits you get.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
Mostly agree
It's why I find the West race so interesting.  Usually black male candidates have to be so buttoned down; Obama is famous for this, but he's hardly the only one.  I don't want to get too much into the unfair racial stereotyping that people do, but West is almost trying out a new role as a black candidate.  Yea, he's Rambo, but that's mixed in with the black drill sergeant you see in a Hollywood movie - and while that character yells, you understand by watching the movie he's a good guy.  West's ad about saving his man's life by loaning him the body armor ties right into this and if he wins, it may help other black candidates win in white districts.
I don't see old men having a problem with him - the WWII/Korea generation will probably respect it; not so sure about the little old ladies.  I think the body armor ad will help a lot with them.
West doesn't come across as angry at 'the man'; that's the key difference to me.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Perhaps it's a federal state thing
Sink voters who prefer an even-keeled Democrat over the shady Scott to serve as their executive, but are fed up with Washington and want to send a message to the federal government and the President.

Other than that, I don't know.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I can easily picture that
But West and Scott are so perfectly matched: thugs and criminals!

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
You
channeling your inner Dale Peterson. He would be very proud of you.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Haha


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
bingo

[ Parent ]
I
would pay $50,000 for that to happen to Michelle Bachman. It would have to be with a woman as well, more fun that way.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I was gonna say she'll be out of a job soon enough
But I could see her ousting Kline easily in a primary now that we've tea baggers in action.  (Dayton hasn't budged in the polls which I think is a great sign.  If he wins, we get total redistricting control.)
[ Parent ]
Angle ad.
http://thepage.time.com/2010/1...

Weird message.  Is Sharron Angle seriously trying to court black and Hispanic voters by portraying Reid as culturally insensitive?  Seriously?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Now that smacks of desperation
What the heck was that?

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
That woman is...
just nuts...There is no other explanation for it and no other word for it.  If she does win, she will be a constant source of embarrassment for her leadership and catnip for the 24-hour talking heads.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Well that's what they said about Al Franken
except this time they'll be right.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Franken is...
an intelligent man...Sharon not so much.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
No one really said
that about Franken, no one with credibility. People were simply unwilling to take him seriously. But Al Franken is a highly intelligent man, shockingly so on constitutional issues, and he speaks eloquently. He stayed on message, and ran a professional campaign. He ran as a standard liberal, not a raving Kucinich-ite, which is effectively what Angle is for Republicans far less eloquent, more awkward, and probably even more political extreme than Kucinich. Essentially there isn't all that much difference between Franken and Wellstone.

Again, as someone else said below, Franken proved during the campaign, (and for anyone who watches CSPAN and reads his editorials), he is extremely well-versed in the issues and sharply intelligent to boot, (something that cannot be said about Angle's ill-informed la-la-la land viewpoints). Yes he's aggressive and rarely minces words, but I'd hardly call him a fringe Senator.  

[ Parent ]
Dozens of people said that
on right wing talk radio and in other right wing circles.  My comment says they were wrong if you read it again, and they were.  Al Franken has done a great job of putting his head down and doing serious work, with few distractions.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Yeah, she's completely loco.
After the "Some of you look a little Asian to me" comment at the Hispanic Students forum, I've given up trying to find any logic in anything she does. She is nutso.
[ Parent ]
From what I remember,
that was her hamfisted way of saying she couldn't always tell a person's race by looking at them. Of course, if the gathering was specifically for Hispanic students, as I think it was, then she looked and sounded nuts.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
The gathering was just for Hispanic students.
It was some kind of outreach forum that the students set-up after her racist ad aired. That is why it was so stupid. That plus her idiotic comment that people have called her the first Asian in the Nevada legislature.  
[ Parent ]
a candidate who can say that and get elected
is what makes me really wonder the sanity of the electorate.  I really doubt I'll ever get to see a more deplorable Senate candidate in all my life than Sharron Angle.  I just have no idea how someone can top her in awfulness.
[ Parent ]
My only hope is that if Angle wins
so does Titus so that she can beat the snot out of her in 2016.  I love when poli sci profs make it to Congress.
[ Parent ]
I find it surprisingly not bad
It looks like others already disagree, but much of Reid's campaign message has been about painting her as extreme and insensitive. This is a last minute reminder that Reid has also had his share of gaffes and out of touch moments. I think it's more directed at white independents who are offended by Angle's antics, reminding them that Harry Reid has been controversial too.

I am fascinated by this race. The winner will be the single most battered, damaged, and hated victor in the recent history of the US Senate.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
The difference is that Reid has had some verbal
gaffes and apologized for them. Angle holds insane views and when called on them doubles-down on them "Not my job to find jobs for Nevadans"; "Black jerseys are the sign of Satan"; etc. She is truly insane. Reid occasionally says stupid things. Not even in the same ballpark.
[ Parent ]
Not disagreeing with any of that
But Angle's trying to give the image that Reid is no less volatile than her. We'll see if it works.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
November 2nd plans?
Is everyone going to be glued to SSP or CableTV that night?  I have decided not to put myself through it all. I do not want to become a drunk at this stage in my life and I feel that I would need lots of adult beverages for the night.  So, I plan not to watch TV, not look at the Internet, or even think about this election after Nov. 1.

Also, I will not watch the news for literally a month after the election.  I did it after the 2000 and 2004 election and it made it all seem better.

I will hope for the best and prepare for the worst.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

SSP will crash,
but you should come while it lasts.  Best place on the web IMHO.  As much as I hate Politico, they've had great election day coverage of the primaries.  And I also use CNN's website to nab the exit polls as soon as the polls close.  I will simultaneously have CNN on TV.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
CNN
CNN is always my favorite to watch returns on.  I like their team.  The most far out thing I did on an election night was in 1988 when I was in college.  There were three of us sharing it and we each had TVs in our bedrooms and one in the living room.  I put all four in the living room so I could monitor CNN plus ABC, NBC and CBS all at the same time.  My roommates laughed at me for days.
I'll probably have a six-pack for this election.  Just need to figure out what I'm going to eat.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
That's an awesome setup.
I too have been smitten by CNN's election night coverage, although I never watch the regular programming.  I switched from MSNBC midstream in 2008.  I don't remember why but MSNBC was grating on me and CNN was much better.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I'm sold on CNN
ever since the 2004 election returns. I was such a neophyte then, I kept getting confused, (I was only aware of Presidential races lol), and thinking that Tom Daschle was falling behind in his South Carolina Senate Race.  
[ Parent ]
Yep
I prefer my political news to be as close to non-partisan as possible and MSNBC and FOX ain't that.  While the uncharitable part of me would like to switch to MSNBC during the returns if they go bad for the Dems just to see Obermann and Maddow's sad faces, I just like the crew at CNN.  With the exception of Eric Ericson, even their partisan voices seem to be less shrill.  I also think that as results come in, they give more hard data and less empty talk.  Plus, I totally dig the magic wall!

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I had planned to do that with FOX in 2008
But I was too happy to even bother with them in the end.
[ Parent ]
I wasn't
A few minutes after Jon Stewart announced the AP had called the presidential election, I flipped over to FOX to laugh at Brit Hume's hangdog face. Or was it Cavuto? Maybe it was both.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Remember this?
http://home.mchsi.com/~idkfa/a...

This will be me this time next week.

[ Parent ]
Do you have a funky monitor like that? nm


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I wish!
More along the lines of Zornorph's improvisation circa 1988.  
[ Parent ]
This time
I'll have my laptop, my desktop and my TV - just hope the cable/internet doesn't go off - I'll go crazy!

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Ditto
Thankfully I have solved my laptop power pack problem. That was a pain in the ass following the primaries.
[ Parent ]
You mean...
... you won't know detailed results until December?

I can't even conceive of not following every race second-by-second on Election Night!

[ Parent ]
Yes that is exactly...
what I mean.  I will be in a better mood about the "widely accepted/projected GOP CAT-5" near the holidays because I love Thanksgiving and Christmas.   The holiday season is my absolute favorite time of the year.  

So, I will give thanks to God for all his blessings and be able to accept things as they are and not as I wish them to be.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
All I'm saying
is that President Obama had better start getting his veto pen ready.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Gotta be there...
It's like reading all of the lead-up to the Super Bowl and then not watching because your team is definitely going to lose to the Patriots because they haven't lost a game all year!  You still have to watch, plus you might be pleasantly surprised...

Here's a question...does anyone go to election night events that Campaigns put on?  I've been to several but I hate not being able to follow other races...I remember being at Corzine's in 2000 and I spent the whole time by the TV cameras because they had tiny monitors that were showing NYC stations feeds (the big projectors were showing CNN so I couldn't check out regional races as easily).  It was fun because you could see who the true junkies were, because we want to talk about everything going on.  It was me, a freeholder and and a State Assemblyman huddled around trying to see if Holt was still winning NJ-12.  (Side note, in 2000, Florida wasn't the only bad call of the night;  I went to bed at 4am thinking Holt was a one-termer because the race was called by AP for Dick Zimmer.)

[ Parent ]
Great analogy
I had another but thought better of it!
[ Parent ]
A couple
I was at one in 1984 (NC-11, I was in high school).  It was for a GOP congregational candidate named Bill Hendon (who won).  What was a bit creepy was the massive reaction when Jessie Helms was announced the winner - a bit unsettling even to a partisan like me.
I was in McCain's event when he won the FL primary back in 2008.  That was quite a rush because it was the night he effectively won the nomination and I felt about him the way many people felt about Obama.  But since that was the only race of the night, so there were no issues with wanting to follow other races.  I wouldn't do it on a regular election night, I want to be near my computer/TV.
What did amaze me was the lack of security.  Anybody could get in and I got close enough to shake McCain's hand.  Anyone wishing harm to him would have had no problem.
One amusing thing; I was interviewed by a South Korean TV station - I always wondered if they dubbed me in Korean.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
the past two cycles
Ive been at the Crowne Plaza in St Paul for the statewide DFL party.  It's pretty fun, the drinks are overpriced, and they do a good job of having enough giant screens to show every news network who will report the big races.

I really dont know if I'll go this year.  Celebrating what will be a Dayton win sounds great but Im just at the point where I want skulk at home and cover the stench of failure with the stench of booze.  I'll be out celebrating in full force when Dayton signs a gay marriage bill next Spring, however!

[ Parent ]
That Would Absolutely Kill Me.....
I used to work at a small-town newspaper and always had to bribe the other staff writer to head to the local courthouse for the official counts of local returns because I would have felt like someone had run over my puppy if I had been denied the chance to sit in front of my TV and computer as the election returns rolled in.  

Nowadays, I clear my schedule for days in preparation, pop a little white pill the night before to make sure I'm well rested for Tuesday, leave work a couple of hours early so I can be sure I make it to the polls at a time they won't be crowded, head home and have the late afternoon, evening, and a.m. hours to myself.  I take the next day off now that I'm no longer at the newspaper.

[ Parent ]
Actually have to do a conference during the day
VMware on election day... probably better for my health. By the time I get back, we'll all know the results from the reputed "bellweather" districts and states. Then I can decide whether to drink wine and watch Glee with my wife, or go downstairs with my laptop and Glenfiddich.
[ Parent ]
CNN Website, Occasional SSP, and Probably MSNBC in the Background.....
I need the colored maps of county results on CNN.  At the same time, I like to hear the calls made on TV when winners are declared.  I'm usually oblivious to actual results as I'm perusing race after race online so I need to hear on TV when winners are declared.  

It was so much simpler in 2000 when the only source of election data I had at my parents' rural Minnesota acreage was Dan Rather and Bob Schieffer making complete asses of themselves on CBS News election coverage.  I'm a little nostalgic for those simpler election nights, but at the same time it would drive me crazy today not being able to check online to see where the vote is left.

[ Parent ]
I
 Will follow my 2008 pattern. I will be stuck on CNN politics looking at all of their maps and exit polls. There are too many races to keep track of and looking for the results on thousands of websites will not be helpful. I'll want to stop by at Swing State but the traffic will probably be too hard.

As for tv, I will stay with MSNBC because I like their exciting election graphics and their commentators (no one beats Chuck Todd.) When MSNBC is on commercial break, I will go to CNN with John King's magic map.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Our Routines Are Pretty Identical....
CNN online....MSNBC on TV.  SSP occasionally when accessible.

Although on Presidential election nights I have to stick with CBS based on my lifelong tradition....although it's not the same with Dan Rather's colloquialisms.

[ Parent ]
Errr....
WITHOUT Rather's colloquialisms.
[ Parent ]
Dan Rather
was the best thing about election night coverage. I miss him.
[ Parent ]
Completely Agreed....
Katie Couric and Jeff Greenfield just ain't cutting it.
[ Parent ]
I'll be in the basement rec room, in what my wife and I call my "man cave," and...
...will have the big screen mostly on MSNBC and maybe some CNN and even broadcast.  I'll have my laptop with me screaming and complaining and swearing in my comments here about the slow SSP page loads and probably getting suspended for foul language and poor temper.  Hell, I might even get blackballed from DailyKos for foul language and poor temper.  It will be a blessing in disguise because it will shield me from the true pain I'd otherwise feel that night if I read all the updates from you guys about this or that race.

My realistic best-case hope is that we really do keep our House losses in the mid-to-high-40s, in which case we really won't be that far underwater and will be positioned to regain the majority again relatively soon depending on what districts we lose.  And I'm hopeful we can surprise even more in the Senate and keep our losses down to 6 or so--hell, 5 isn't impossible if things break our way.  I'm feeling better tonight about CA and even WA, the latter because of the news of half the registered voters already having voted which means any late "surge" national Republicans are seeing is of limited value.  And CO is looking better and better every day, Buck just keeps hurting himself over and over again even this late.  Manchin looks to be in the lead, and if Giannoulias can pull a rabbit out of his hat and poull in a plurality, we could pull off a miracle of limiting losses to 5!

In that case, I'll be cyberhighfiving everyone here.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Harry Reid's closing ad.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
You know I bet
Reid's polling tells him exactly is still in the undecideds columns. His polling must be telling him that Republican Women, who lean conservative on economic issues and aren't very happy with him, are the biggest group of undecideds so he is making a last minute push to make Angle completely unacceptable for these social moderates.  
[ Parent ]
I'm just going to come out and say it......
Leah Land is HOT!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I didn't want to be the first to say it...
But yeah, no kidding.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
the little stutter was a great decision to keep in the ad
and that lemonade from lemons quote is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard in an ad.
[ Parent ]
Reid's closer
If he is closing on a scare-voters-on-wedge-issues ad, then maybe his numbers look like the public polling.  

Pretty amazing that Angle would be able to single-handedly overturn Roe v Wade than get this kind of a bill through congress and past Obama...

[ Parent ]
Dem tracking polls are showing him ahead by 6
These polls' existence was corroborated, but are private.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
And it's about driving up her unfavorables and turning off indies.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That's silly and shows you haven't followed this race at all......
Besides the other reply comment that Reid's internals have him up 6, corroborated by both Ed Henry of CNN and Jon Ralston in Nevada, Reid's closing is the same as he's done since the primary and has worked brilliantly.  That's why he's closing with it.

And yes Angle advocates for everything the ad claims and in fact cast real votes in the state legislature consistent with those views.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
NJ-3 & FL-8
Don't think these made the digest yet:

Monmouth has runyan 47- Adler 44 in NJ 3. I guess NJ 12 may be coming out tomorrow at least according to some commentor earlier.  Probably on between the pallone and Adler numbers.  

Sunshine state has webster 48-Grayson 41. I am not sure that this race is even on the radar screen anymore for most people (I haven't dropped by kos in a while).

My apologies for the lack of links, post by phone.  

Yeah, those were posted earlier...
There's also a 44/44 poll for NJ-3, I forget the pollster.
[ Parent ]
Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Tied
http://news.rutgers.edu/medrel...

There have been three polls released in the past few days.  Adler led in each of Rutgers (+2), Monmouth (+3), and Zogby (+8) in the prior polls and now he is tied in Rutgers new poll, 5 in Monmouth's and 3 in Zogby all out in the last two days.  Not good news for Adler, he is in serious trouble.

[ Parent ]
Corrections
He is down 5 in Monmouth and 3 in Zogby, didn't mean more them crossed out like that.
[ Parent ]
The confirmation of dirty tricks
I suspect is playing a part.
[ Parent ]
NJ-3 Runyan leads 48-43
Don't know if it was type-o on your part or if you saw a different number somewhere else.  But Monmouth's release shows Runyan leading 48-43.

http://www.monmouth.edu/pollin...

[ Parent ]
Amazing that an idiot
like Runyan is beating Adler. Thankfully Adler has a lot more money and local political organization, still, he won by a much smaller margin last time than I expected him to. Monmouth, though, (which is SUSA I believe), has been producing some very Republican friendly polls, like the poll that showed 6 term incumbent Rush Holt only up by 5 in a district that gave Obama over 60% of the vote. Chris Christie alone should be dragging down all Republicans in New Jersey as voters already get to regret the consequences of voting Republican, (though I'm still glad Corzine lost, it sent a message to the corrupt political machine in New Jersey and got rid of a bad, egotistical governor, in favor of another bad, egotistical governor).  
[ Parent ]
If I could sacrifice Adler to the political gods
in order to save Rush Holt, I'd do it in a second.  
[ Parent ]
Ditto
And I'd happily trade Loretta Sanchez for Ami Bera, for that matter.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Yikes, hate to say it but I agree

[ Parent ]
have to disagree Re: Christie
Christie's approvals are higher now than they were when he was elected, and he was elected in all three of those districts.  He won NJ-3 56-39, NJ-12 by about 8, and NJ-6 narrowly (numbers are tough to come by because of split municipalities).  All three GOP candidates have held multiple events with the Governor.  He must be testing well nationally, since he's been in CA, CT, PA, OH, etc...He's said he doesn't want to go to the South, because he feels his NJ message doesn't resonate there as well.  But he's being courted by moderate GOPers even as Palin is being shunned.
[ Parent ]
What makes him so popular?
He's an asshole that treats his constituents like shit and is completely gutting education in a state that actually cares about education.  What's the appeal?
[ Parent ]
To quote Sideshow Bob

deep down you long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalize criminals, and rule you like a king

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt07...

[ Parent ]
He seems like someone who can get stuff done.
Most people don't pay attention to the details of governing so when Christie is able to push through his budget cuts and property tax cap he's seen as being successful. This is in contrast to Corzine who appeared to get rolled by the Legislature and McGreevey who was, for all intents and purposes, corrupt.

20, Ind, PA-14
[ Parent ]
ironically
He didn't get the constitutional amendment he wanted, what he got was a cap not very different from what Corzine did. Same on spending.

Progressive New Jersey news at Blue Jersey.
[ Parent ]
Christie
Christie will not be a drag on runyan--to say the least. Check out pollstericom, go to NJ, and take a look at christie's approval ratings. They are quite strong (over 50 in the last three polls).  Those numbers are statewide and nj3 is likely significantly better for him. I suspect a lot of Christie disappproval is coming out of sires and payn's districts, not ocean county.  
[ Parent ]
A little off base
First off, the Monmouth poll is not exactly Survey USA.  Yes Survey USA is used as the automated polling, but it is not as if this a poll strictly by SUSA commissioned by some newspaper as in the case in many other places.

Obama winning by 60% in NJ-12 is meaningless, he won NJ-2 by 9 points and does anybody remotely think that longtime Republican Frank Lobiondo is endangered (the answer is a resounding no), it's a pretty useless statistic especially considering Chris Christie won NJ-12 district by more than 5 points just a year ago.  Anybody who knows the district knows that is certainly winnable for a Republican.  Also, unfortunately for you Chris Christie is well liked throughout the state and especially in districts like NJ-3 which are even more Republican friendly than the state overall.

As I said above, Adler had led in three outfits that have polled this race more than once.  Now he is tied and down in two.  That isn't good news.

[ Parent ]
"Well liked"
Bullshit.  I'm from NJ, and he's well hated by most of the people I know.  His bullying act will play for a while, but will wear thin pretty quickly.  Christie Whitman was a media darling, but ended up winning re-election by only 1% in '97.  Not heard much from after that.
[ Parent ]
Polarizing, but generally liked
I'll give you that he is quite polarizing.  You either love him or hate him, and obviously in left-leaning blog the vast the majority of people will hate him.  I'm from New Jersey as well and know plenty of people who like him.  His job approval ratings seem to prove my point considering he has been at 51-37, 45-38, 51-43, 51-36 in the most recent polls by FDU, Monmouth Rass, and Qunnipiac.
[ Parent ]
liked
Even a lot of the people who support him, don't like him.  He's a misreable, obnoxious, bully.  The fat kid getting even with everyone.
[ Parent ]
Very True
Christie has a rare case where his favorables are consistently lower than his approval ratings.  Perhaps "well-liked" was a poor choice of words on my part, but the point I was trying to bring up was that a very large number of New Jersey voters approve of his job so far as governor and I was thus disputing the fact that Christie would somehow bring down Republicans across the state, because that simply is not the case.
[ Parent ]
True...
I think that Christie is a bully.  That he is now considered the Republicans "Obama" as I have heard some of them say is ludicrous to me.  He does not have an appealing personality.  He comes across as angry and hostile even.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Republicans' Obama?
I can't think of two more different politicians.  One is unafaid of confrontation, the other will do anything to avoid it.
[ Parent ]
Christie is not the GOP Obama
That would be Marco Rubio. Christie is an asset to the party, but he's not "the guy" who is going to win back the White House. Not saying that Rubio will be "the guy" either, but of all the Republicans he reminds me the most of Obama.

Rubio-Christie 2016? Now that would be intriguing.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
christie
1.  Pollsters may not be picking up the people you know or they are not a representative cross section of NJ voters.  The last three polls have his job approval at: 51-37, 57-43, and 51-36 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

The polls close in NJ in about 170 hours.  Even if you are correct, his image does not have to hold up much longer to help Runyan or Siperelle a week from today.  

As of now, Christie is nothing if not an asset for Republicans eager for a new image.  He looks like a pragmatic and effective conservative to many people that has won over a lot of the independents and moderates that have fled the GOP over the last few years, especially in the Northeast.  Unlike Palin or O'Donnell he actually holds office, and in a major state that is at least somewhat competitive at the national level.  

[ Parent ]
Christie
Christie is an odd character.  The teacher's union of course hates him.  No doubt partisan liberals and Democrats are going to hate him, that's obvious too. But it's tough to be branded as a complete a-hole when you are getting not-insignificant support from Cory Booker (D), Sens. Sandra Cunningham and Teresa Ruiz, and his best friend is the Dem Essex Exec. Joe D.  His relationship with many Dems is better than Corzine's was, so it's hard to demonize him.  Already several other legislators have tried to and they've failed.  And I think he speaks for the middle class in a way that Christie Whitman never did.  She was always old money, country club, blue blood, elite.  This guy is as far from elite as possible, and I think he connects with a lot of people.  They see him as genuine and unpolished.  It's very true that he could still crash and burn, but I mean, he's already survived the race to the top screw-up, the showdown with the NJEA, and now he's working on the arbitration cap where he has some of the Dems I listed above trying to get their fellow Dems to support his plan, and not their own.  

I hope this isn't seen as a Republican rah-rah piece on him, because, full disclosure, I'm a member of the NJEA and I'm supposed to hate him, and I didn't vote for him, but I'm just trying to be objective here.  

[ Parent ]
In some ways Cory Booker is a disappointment...
He is more popular with people who live outside Newark than people who live in Newark (sort of like A. Fenty his twin). That he sucks up to Christie really gives me a headache.  I read something on this the other day at www.theroot.com.  It is an AA Political Blog.  I will not go into the general beef about him but just know that his standing in Newark (although he won again)is not so great.  I know someone who was a top aide in his first administration but she moved back the NYC and did not stay on after he won.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
This post is daggers to my heart
Cory Booker is who I dream of being President someday and I had no idea there was this sentiment.
[ Parent ]
"Speaks for the middle class"
Is that why he vetoed a surtax on millionaires and cut aid to education instead?

As for people like Booker, you have to understand that there is an Essex-Camden access that stabbed Corzine in the back and got rid of Dick Codey, the one Democrat in the legislature who could have taken on Christie, as senate president.  There is now no state Democratic party in New Jersey.  Instead, there is a Republicrat party, with Chrisite, Booker, Sweeney, etc. all on the same team.  And Essex County executive DiVinecenzo, who when he is not literally holding hands with Christie, is metaphorically kissing his fat ass.

There is a glaring need for a second political in New Jersey.  Don't mistake its national voting profile.  The state Democratic party is populated by bosses, crooks and sellouts.

[ Parent ]
agree with most of what you've said
But it was Corzine that first let the tax expire, though Cristie vetoed it when they tried to bring it back. And it was the seniors that should have been pissed, since it was for property tax rebates exclusively, not education.

And Christie and Sweeney do not get along from what I'm told.  With Booker being close to the Gov, expect Sweeney to be the nominee in '13, unless one of the Reps. takes a free shot.

I agree with everything else though.

[ Parent ]
Sweeney
Sweeney likes to brag about his good relations with Christie.  Or at least he did.  He would be a horribe nominee.  There would be a good chance of a third party progressive candidate if he did.

I don't see anyone on the horizon since Codey was removed from the scene.  They have some good reps, Pallone and Holt but I don't seem them as good candidates against Christie.  They need someone from outside politics, the way Lautenberg and Corzine were when the first ran.  Or perhaps Bill Bradley to make a comeback.

[ Parent ]
Bradley = i wish
I really doubt he's coming back, and the shame is he had the perfect opportunity when Torricelli was booted.  He would be in Lautenberg's seat right now and would keep it longer than he will.

BTW, Christie is probably the first person that I think I  believe, maybe since Colin Powell, when he says he doesn't want to be/run for President.

[ Parent ]
Yeah,
I can understand stabbing Corzine in the back, but Dick Codey? The fact that Booker and his allies were part of the group that got rid of the one non-corrupt, effective Democrat is outrageous. And consider that the other part of the NJ party is run by Rob Andrews and his political machine...
[ Parent ]
replace Rob Andrews
With George Norcross.  Rob Andrews runs nothing.

He just got his brother from no office to Assembly to State Senate in less than 9 months.

[ Parent ]
correction
9 days
[ Parent ]
Norcross, UGH
For that reason alone I would work for Republicans in NJ. And I'm extremely liberal. I just have no patience for NJ's style of corrupt, incompetent backroom politics.
[ Parent ]
Sure
But Adler, Holt and Pallone's favorables aren't exactly in Corzine territory.
[ Parent ]
Exactly correct
Holt and Pallone both have positive favorables and job approval ratings, while Adler is slightly positive favorable and slightly negative job approval (all according to Monmouth this is).  That is also why I'd expect Holt to win by mid single digits (4-6), Pallone by high (7-9) and Adler to be in a real dogfight that will go down to the wire, truly a pick 'em/pure toss-up for me.
[ Parent ]
Runyan
Chris Dudley is another unimpressive-but-inoffensive ex-jock and he's doing pretty well in Oregon. He's a bit behind, but Oregon as a whole is D+4 whereas NJ-3 is R+1.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
"Sunshine" is a Republican pollster
for Grayson to be only down 7 in that poll is surprising, since everyone seems to have written him off.
[ Parent ]
AZ-07: Remember that Spanish-language positive ad I embedded yesterday?
Well, here's the ad buy: $126,500
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
The guy who stomped the woman is being given a criminal summons.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I hope
I hope he is convicted of a felony and loses the right to vote.  At a minimum. There would be justice in that.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Fascistic Libertarianism
Might seem like a contradiction, but it's not.  They're bullies.  Expect more until someone fights back.
[ Parent ]
nah
No way that thug is a serious libertarian. The tea party is basically a European-style right-wing nationalist (e.g. Palin) movement with a large minority of college libertarian (e.g. Paul) types. They don't have much in common apart from opposition to Democrats.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Agreed
And it's going to be really fun to watch the coalition explode when they sit down to the task of governing, especially if President Obama and whoever is leading the Democratic House minority and Senate majority say, "Okay, we're not just going to blindly oppose whatever you do. Make an offer and we'll come to the table."

"Wait...we actually have to make legislation?"
- Sen. Rand Paul, February 2011

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
They've been making those offers since January last year
McConnell said the other day the most important issue for the Republicans is making sure Obama is a one-termer. Not the economy, not health care, not social security, not immigration but "get" the president. Democratic strategy going forward should take note. I even found myself the other day working out a solid 41 Dems that will filibuster.
[ Parent ]
Democrats should follow Republican lead
Oppose everything and filibuster.  Grind government to a halt and take advantage of the gridlock by attacking the Republicans at every turn.
[ Parent ]
Which is why I was looking for 41
Because certain people won't. I'm looking at you Lieberman, Nelson, Landrieu, Pryor et al.
[ Parent ]
And then start disrupting Republican town halls during recesses

[ Parent ]
The DCCC should also start releasing selective polls

[ Parent ]
The DCCC?
No no no, we need to get Soros to fund an independent polling firm that can pump out polls in a single night to create the narrative we want to see.
[ Parent ]
The Democrats strategy should that of the Republicans
make sure that nothing that comes out of the House ever sees the light of day in the Senate.  I think we can get most Democrats in the Senate to support filibusters if in the minority(unlikely) and its unlikely that Majority Leader Schumer would even let most of what Republicans pass in the House come up to a vote in the Senate.  
[ Parent ]
I still agree with Rothenberg...
If Sen. Reid doesn't return to the Senate or backs out of the leadership job, I can see Sen. Murray winning as a "compromise candidate". Sens. Durbin and Schumer are both very aggressive and very divisive, and I think it would be a bad mistake to put either another Illinois politician or a loud-mouthed Noo Yawker in charge of the Democratic Senate majority. The idea is to improve congressional Democrats' image, not spur more knee-jerk hatred from the GOP and dismissal from "middle America".

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Yes, because Reid was so loud, aggressive and divisive

[ Parent ]
It would definitely be a "new" image...
It just wouldn't be a better image.

If Sen. Reid sounded like Rep. Grayson, even Angle would be blowing him to bits right now. If he sounded like Grayson, Sen. Specter wouldn't have switched parties, Sens. Lieberman, Landrieu, Lincoln, Pryor, and Ben Nelson would not have come home on healthcare, and arguably then-Sen. Obama wouldn't have gotten enough crossover votes and independents to beat Sen. McCain back in 2008.

Sens. Schumer and Durbin sound a lot like Alan Grayson. For hardcore liberals, that's really super exciting. But I'm a solidly left-wing independent and it would turn me off. Guts are one thing; our leaders should have guts. But Schumer is obnoxious, and Durbin struggles to find a middle ground between playing "good cop" and playing "bad cop" in a way Reid doesn't.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Umm...
Ben Nelson voted Nay on the Health Care Reconciliation Act. As did Lincoln. They voted with 41 Republicans, making the final vote 56-43.

Maria Cantwell would be a promising new leader, but I think it will be Schumer. Perhaps not immediately, but definitely after 2012. Reid will probably get a high profile committee chairmanship as compensation. Anyway, Schumer isn't that bad. I actually don't find him obnoxious. The guy has obvious ability to recruit and control public image, and, regardless of your feelings, he is highly popular among moderates and independents in the state he actually represents.

Harry Reid has enormous difficulty fighting the public opinion battle and serving as a national spokesman in defense of Democratic initiatives. Part of the reason I'd be so keen on getting Schumer is not that he's so much more liberal than Reid, its simply that he understands that public part of the game, and he is exceptionally talented at debating, garnering support, and shifting pressure back on the opposition in areas where there is significant public support/favorability to a Democratic initiative. Really liberality has nothing to do with it, both would be about the same position-wise as leaders, I just think Schumer would be more effective, particular in fighting Republican narratives and rebuking possible political fallout.

Then, besides all that, Reid has been our leader for 6 years now. I think that it's time for a change regardless. He's been around long enough. Two more years is the maximum I'd give him. There are too many people who are ostensibly more politically talented than Reid is who are waiting for a chance, Cantwell and Schumer top among them.  

[ Parent ]
I'd support Maria Cantwell
for the leadership simply because she's delightful to look at. No, that's not a substantial qualification, to say the least, but at least she'd light up my television if she were to lead.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I'd support Cantwell because of her brains
She's smart, she's deliberate, she stands for principle, she'd beat down Sarah Palin silly if given half a chance.
[ Parent ]
What would someone like Murray get us?
We need someone who will aggressively fight Republicans, not be "concilatory' the way Democrats were with Republicans in the 90's that kept us in the minority for 12 years.

Part of me wishes Democrats acted the way Gingrich did in 2007 and 2008 and impeached Bush.  Republicans got 12 years in the majority after the way they behaved and Democrats were civil and only got four years in the majority.    

[ Parent ]
That's just stupid
Dumb. Plain dumb. There would have been no better way to change the narrative to the Democrats powergrab and how they were beholden to the far left and weren't interested in actually governing, etc. All the idiotic leftists, (of whom I was not one), who pressed that memo didn't seem to understand that impeaching Clinton backfired big time on Republicans, Gingrich especially, and cost them seats in the house, and prevented them from gaining in the Senate when they seemed certain to make some gains.

[ Parent ]
Republicans ended up holding Congress, didnt they?
While Republicans didnt do as well as they hoped in 1998, its not like they lost 30 seats in the House and five in the Senate.  
[ Parent ]
1998
I don't want to get into policy, but I always felt that the GOP made a mistake in 1998 when they got rid of Gingrich.  He had his flaws but he was replaced - not so much by Hastert as by Delay.  I don't think that was good for the party.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Patty Murry as Majority Leader?!
Are you kidding me? I don't think she could speak off the cuff about any issue unless she memorized all of the talking points. Have you ever heard her speak on the floor? It's like she's just reading a book report cribbed from someone else, without even reading it beforehand.

And Washington state isn't even "middle America".

If a "middle America" person is appropriate, I think every other midwestern D Senator would be better. I can't think of one who would be worse than Murray.

[ Parent ]
Murray would be a disaster
We need Schumer.  Schumer would aggressively fight Republicans and filibuster everything they tried to pass, while Murray would be a pushover.  
[ Parent ]
A loud mouth Noo Yawker is exactly what we need I think actually
He wont stand for bullshit from the GOP nor from his own caucus.  I'd hope.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
Being "conciliatory" isnt going to get us anywhere.  We should have learned this from 1994 to 2004, when we were stuck in a permanent minority.  
[ Parent ]
The West is the future
The Republicans have seen it. Hell, Presidents Nixon and Reagan were Westerners, and the Presidents Bush did a damn decent job of pretending.

If the Democrats want to pigeonhole themselves as the party of the old metropoles, that's their funeral. But Illinois and New York will both lose seats in 2012. Washington and other Western states just keep right on gaining, and the cultural image of the United States continues to shift away from Chicago, Washington, and New York.

Pulling leadership into the safe embrace of Illinois or New York would be a mistake, in my view. And putting a loudmouth shnook like Sen. Schumer in charge would be worse still.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Why do you dislike
Schumer so much? He's got the same street tough image as Reid, but unlike Reid he can actually sell a policy to the public, he can actually perform the public campaigner/persona side of the job as majority leader. I really don't see where you're coming from. Schumer would get a fresh start, and his whole blue collar New Yorker image would give a favorable initial impression to people, and as I said in my first comment, which I doubt you even read, Schumer has obviously done a good job at appealing to moderates, and even conservatives, in his home state because he's going to win about 66% or more even in this fairly rough climate for Democrats.

Republicans will keep McConnell, (and why not, he is amazing at his job, a far better minority leader than Reid was), so why would you think Democrats would beholden to pick a Westerner? Do you think the Western US will abandon the Democratic party in fury at not being tapped for the Majority Leader?

Again, it's not tough for me to explain this to you. It's a, time for a change, and b, Schumer is simply the best candidate and he's the most likely. I'd prefer Maria Cantwell personally, but she'll have to go for Majority Whip or something.  

[ Parent ]
Why do you dislike
Schumer so much? He's got the same street tough image as Reid, but unlike Reid he can actually sell a policy to the public, he can actually perform the public campaigner/persona side of the job as majority leader. I really don't see where you're coming from. Schumer would get a fresh start, and his whole blue collar New Yorker image would give a favorable initial impression to people, and as I said in my first comment, which I doubt you even read, Schumer has obviously done a good job at appealing to moderates, and even conservatives, in his home state because he's going to win about 66% or more even in this fairly rough climate for Democrats.

Republicans will keep McConnell, (and why not, he is amazing at his job, a far better minority leader than Reid was), so why would you think Democrats would beholden to pick a Westerner? Do you think the Western US will abandon the Democratic party in fury at not being tapped for the Majority Leader?

Again, it's not tough for me to explain this to you. It's a, time for a change, and b, Schumer is simply the best candidate and he's the most likely. I'd prefer Maria Cantwell personally, but she'll have to go for Majority Whip or something.  

[ Parent ]
Blue collar New York is NOT as appealing as you think it is
Especially in politics, since New York has a reputation for disgusting, dirty political wheeling and dealing. Chicago has the same stink. Las Vegas is acquiring it. Seattle is a lot cleaner.

If you have two congressional leaders from the West and then you have none (because Speaker Pelosi won't be House minority leader, I can almost guarantee), immediately after a cycle in which Republicans do gangbusters in the Southwest, it doesn't look good. It looks like the Democrats are retreating back to those much-ballyhooed ivory towers, or worse, their smoke-filled back rooms on the Atlantic. The likes of Gov. Schweitzer and John Kitzhaber would have a thing or two to say about it.

I like Sen. Cantwell better, too, but she doesn't have the seniority.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure
what the location of the leadership has to do with anything, other than factoring in when we figure whether those in the leadership are likely to lose their races. It'd be one thing if every single Democrat in a position of power were to be from New York City or something, but Harry Reid is a pro-life Mormon from Nevada and some people speak of him as if he were a gay abortion doctor and heroin user from Berkeley. The Democrats could elect Jesus Christ in the middle of Oklahoma and the Republicans would turn him into whatever caricature they wanted. Really, where's the poling that suggests that the location of the Speaker of the House or Senate Majority Leader matters? Schumer, or anyone else, might be a bad choice, but it's probably not because of the state he or she represents.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
First, you talk about "middle America"
now you talk about the West coast. D Senators from the West coast who would be better majority leaders than Murray include:

Akaka
Begich
Boxer
Cantwell
Feinstein
Merkley
Inouye
Wyden

The best of this crowd would be Wyden, Cantwell, and Feinstein.

[ Parent ]
Sen. Feinstein would be acceptable...
But I think she's going to retire at the end of this term. She's 77.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
OH HELL NO
Dianne Feinstein would BE AWFUL. She's incompetent (remember when she spilled a bunch of intelligence secrets on the Senate floor?) and she's a pushover (caving to the Republicans constantly even though she doesn't need to) and she loves being seen as a moderate to the point where she'll sell out any value she supposedly has.

What about Barbara Mikulski? She's old, sure, but she's got the seniority and how do you demonize a pocket-sized Polish lady from Maryland? But since this will likely be her last term anyway, what do we have to lose even if they do figure out how to demonize her? But yeah, if Reid departs, it's gotta be Schumer. Durbin's at a geographical disadvantage and there's something appropriate about the party's top 3 leaders being from CA, NY & IL.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
As I said, it pigeonholes the party...
There was so much buzz about the Western Democrats in 2008: the Cousins Udall, Gov. Schweitzer, all of the freshmen who won in the West.

Sen. Mikulski is fine - I'm voting for her, of course - but she isn't in leadership and she was leapfrogged for a chairmanship not too long ago, which was a bit of a slap in the face. Agreed it would be hard to demonize her; the best Wargotz has come up with is cut-and-pasting her face on a T-rex and calling her a "political insidersaurus". Yes, he is going to lose by 25 points.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Well... yeah...
Except that regardless of what happens next week, Democrats still hold the White House, and hence a veto.  That fact is more important than finding 41 Dem Senators who will filibuster.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Either or as far as I'm concerned
It'll either be the making or breaking of Obama that is for sure.
[ Parent ]
By the way,
when is that going to be incorporated into the Democratic message?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Search me
If only Harry Reid's campaign could be duplicated across the country. Too many missed opportunities to count. Thing is if us amateurs can see it why can't the pro "strategists" do something about it?
[ Parent ]
Great question
I wonder this every day when Im at work as I think about how much it sucks there.
[ Parent ]
Of course they won't take the opportunity...
But if Democrats stretch out their hands and every rational Republican from Sen. Snowe to Sen. Isakson to Rep. Ros-Lehtinen to Rep. Ryan make noises about coming to the table, then Sens. DeMint and Coburn and Reps. King and Pence run in and start trying to gnaw the Democrats' hands off, the optics will be terrible and there will be a huge controversy within the GOP over whether to shut down government (as Sen. DeMint and Reps. King and Westmoreland have suggested) or to try to work something out to keep the ball moving (as Sen. Isakson and Rep. Cantor have insisted the parties should do).

The issue of whether to shut down government if and when the Democrats refuse to cave in to every Republican demand and rubber-stamp every Republican proposal could very well break up the tenuous alliance between Reps. Boehner, Cantor, Hensarling, Pence, McCarthy, and Ryan - all of whom are very influential within their party - and split open a looming rift between establishment conservatives, the last few moderate Republican senators, and the Tea Party bloc in the upper chamber.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Representative Ryan?
Have you read his policy plan? It's basically the same neoconservative crap that Gingrich tried to sell in the 90s. He's not as vocal as Pence and King, but he is no less conservative.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I read it
He just wants to get some of his proposals into the budget so, so badly, I think he'll bend.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Which of his reactionary proposals are these?
And which ones do you think the the senate and the white house, despite their general milkquetoast status, would actually agree to?
[ Parent ]
I mean, some of Sen. Grassley's proposals made it into the healthcare law
You could probably get enough Democrats behind some of Rep. Ryan's gratuitous tax cuts to force the president's hand there. It's once the Democrats start pushing back and wanting to sit down and reconfigure Ryan's budget that the fun starts.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Oh man
That asshole is going to be head of the budget committee.  He should be a prime target for Democrats in and out of congress.  The MSM will fawn over him, but his plans to eviscerate social security and medicare will provide a juicy target.
[ Parent ]
It is really sad...
that this is what qualifies as "political leadership" in this country.  We have a lot of problems.  To say that this is your biggest concern with all the problems we have is just amazing.  I guess he has it good so it is of no moment to him.  

I was speaking to a girlfriend of mine living in Spain the other day and she states that they are fascinated with this midterm election. They believe we have lost our will, are in decline and have no ability to lead the world again.  They believe that we are just mired in petty politics.  Also, she states that even the conservatives believe the Tea Party people are crazy.  

I disagreed with her but it is statements like his that make me really believe that she is correct.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
The difference is with the possible exception
of one or two Senators on the Dem/Independent side, the Democrats want government to work and are not willing to put their political gains above the government. The Republican Senate caucus is full of people who hate the government and don't care if it is grind to a halt.  That's why the constant Dem obstruction won't happen. Even Sanders who is the most liberal Senator isn't going to filibuster the government into shut down mode to override the Republicans.  
[ Parent ]
Well stated
This is exactly why my partisan sentiments sit where they do. And I have some quite conservative positions.
[ Parent ]
Al Franken had a great campaign quote
Republicans say government doesnt work and then they get elected and prove themselves right.
[ Parent ]
That MA-10 ad is just brutal
People keep saying, "Oh, it's gonna flip," but Keating has led in polls and an ad blast like that is the kind of thing that sticks in a voter's mind when she heads into the booth next Tuesday.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
They've been hitting Perry on this for weeks
yet he seems to hang right in there.  I would think this would be disqualifying in a D+5 district.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I agree
Wish I could give better analysis because it's my home state, but I really don't know that area particularly well. I won't know until the same time as you next Tuesday who the next Congressman will be, and I wouldn't really be surprised either way at this point. Pressed to make a call, I say Keating.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Given
the following choices of upsets which is most likely (or your gut tells you) to going to happen?
A. O'Donnell wins
B. Frank loses
C. Boxer loses
D. Tom Perillo (SP?) wins
E. Belbene (SP?, I suck with names) wins in Washington.
F. Quayle loses in AZ
G. We keep the House.
H. We lose the Senate.

I would pick F, that seems the most likely, albeit not very likely even with the PPP poll.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

D
But I don't think any of them will happen.
[ Parent ]
That is tough
Probably Perriello. Obama wouldn't be going for a punt.
[ Parent ]
To be honest, I think he he may be going for a punt
A punt to the 2011 class of Dems saying that when you put your neck on the line for your President, he'll help you out as well.

Perriello will be the one I'm most sad over if he loses and I bet Obama feels the same way.

[ Parent ]
It's no punt, I've read a LOT of tea leaves recently saying Perriello is running close and both parties are surprised......
I've seen comments over the past month by a BUNCH of prognosticators and political reporters that Perriello is hanging much closer to Hurt than anyone thought he would be at this stage, that people expected Hurt to put some distance there by now but it hasn't happened.

Perriello is just a superb campaigner personally and knows how to put together a first-class campaign organization, and it's showing.

Sadly I still think he's going to end up losing next Tuesday, and if I had to guess I would say Hurt 51-Perriello 46-Clark 3.

But it's close enough that the DCCC bought TV ads there here in the closing weeks, and Obama visiting confirms this is a real opportunity to hold the seat.

Perriello's ability to actually win requires stunningly high black turnout in Southside and white liberal turnout in Charlottesville and surrounding Albemarle County.  Obama won Charlottesville 79-20, and Albemarle 59-40.  And Obama won neighboring Nelson County 54-45.  So whatever drop in his approvals statewide, he's still going to be well in positive territory here.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
This is
pure speculation, but perhaps some of the first-term Democrats didn't want a visit from Obama.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
G
Because I have balls and like the payout.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
In order of most to least likely
F
D
E
G
C
H
B
A

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
D, F, E, G, C, H, B, A
D ~ 35%, thanks to Obama's visit
F ~ 30%
E ~ 25%
G ~ 25%
C ~ 10%
H ~ 5%
B ~ 1%
A ~ 0.1%
[ Parent ]
From most to least likely...
D. Rep. Perriello wins (VA-05)
F. Ben Quayle loses (AZ-03)
G. Democrats retain the House
E. Susan DelBene wins (WA-08)
C. Sen. Boxer loses (California)
H. Democrats lose the Senate
B. Rep. Frank loses (MA-04)
A. Christine O'Donnell wins (Delaware)

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Boxer
I think Boxer losing is the most likely of those to happen.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I agree
Although I wonder if Fiorina being in the hospital will move this race towards Boxer. (Don't reply here, don't want to derail this, I will post about it below)  
[ Parent ]
I think the race is moving away from Fiorina
The last 4 public polls have demonstrated this.

That said, I don't think any of the above are likely, so Fiorina winning might be the most "likely" of outcomes I think are all less than 20% possibilities.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
G - we keep the House.
I still think we keep the House. In order to win the House, the GOP needs to defeat a lot of the Southern Democratic Reps and the Midwestern Reps since that is where they poll well. The polling has shown the Southern Democrats hanging in there for the most part and they aren't going to pick-up any seats in MN, ND, SD, or IA and I think they only get 2 in IN, 2 in WI and 2 in IL. It is going to come down to PA and OH. If our GOTV operations can turnout enough Democrats there, they don't get the House.
[ Parent ]
F fa sho
I'd say there's at least a 40% chance Quayle loses.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I don't think any is truly likely but "E" DelBene wins
is the least unlikely. She has closed much of the gap and Reichert has done nothing to help himself. He also isn't visible on the campaign trail now the way DelBene is.

Murray has an ad running that targets independent women reminding them that Rossi opposed mandating insurance plans cover contraceptive costs, opposed granting unemployment compensation to women who quit jobs while fleeing domestic violence and opposes abortion in almost all cases. If Murray's ad draws independent women to the polls, it will help DelBene.

[ Parent ]
H
I don't know, it's just the old "the House never flips without the Senate" adage. I think that the GOP is most likely to gain 8 or 9 at this point, with CA, WA, and perhaps WV staying Dem. But over this final week, I would be less surprised to see Raese and Rossi make one final surge than anything else on the list. I give the Senate about a 25% chance of flipping, and everything else a lower chance than that.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Too late for Rossi surge, most WA voters have already voted......
I don't know if it was in this diary or another that it was reported via news story link that a whopping 50% of WA registered voters already have voted, and that could end up being 75% of the total.

When only about one-quarter of voters are left to persuade, that blunts any late surge by either side.

So unless the ballots cast happen to add up to a dead heat, the remaining votes won't matter without being overwhelmingly one-sided, which is not going to happen.

I do now trust that Boxer is pulling away.  The Pollster.com chart now shows Boxer breaking 50 in 3 of the last 5 polls, and at 48 in the other 2 both of which are Rasmussen (one of those the Fox Pulse alter ego).  so  

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
SD-Gov
The firm is relativity new. But the dem down 43-40.

http://www.mitchellrepublic.co...
http://www.macroecon.com/pol12...  

SD-GOV
New Mason-Dixon poll just out for the argusleader.com and KELO-TV had Daugaard (R) up 54-35, very similar to Ras.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
54-35 seems more likely
low unemployment, relatively popular governor leaving, and a libertarian streak west river that's probably ready to vote against anyone with an R in their name.  good year for duugard

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Yikes
It seems like Reid has been down consistently in the past few days.  Granted it is still within the margin-of-error, it would still be better for him to be on top.
Two polls in a fortnight
Both Rasmussen. The Angle campaign are on record as saying their internals are a tie.
[ Parent ]
Case in point...
WV recently, over roughly the same period:

Rasmussen/Pulse: Manchin -2
PPP: Manchin +6

Not saying that PPP is necessarily right, just that a small deficit for a candidate from Raz can be a relatively solid lead from another pollster.

[ Parent ]
Here's an interesting stat that will make Rasmussen champ or chump in WV-Sen......
Rasmussen, including its "Fox Pulse" alter ego, is the ONLY pollster to give Raese a lead for over a month now.  Everyone else in October says tie or Manchin back ahead.

Cook wrote just within the past few days that Manchin is up by low single-digits.

This is one where victory would be particularly sweet, to knock down Scotty hard.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Sestak and Toomey tied.
In new Reuters/Ipsos poll: http://blogs.reuters.com/front...

Both are at 46.  Poll shows rather depressed Democratic turnout. Registered voters have Sestak leading easily.  Onorato is only down 49-43, having closed a 15-point gap.  I guess I underestimated Onorato.  Onorato leads among registered voters.

Their criteria for a likely voter aren't bad, but I have complaints as usual.  1: You had to have voted in 2008.  That criterion will miss a very tiny number of first-time voters.  2: You had to have said at least "7" on a ten-point school of self-report likelihood for voting.  3: You have to have had at least some interest in the political campaigns.  I find that last criterion least relevant.  People vote all the time not knowing a damn thing about the campaigns.  

If I had commissioned the poll, I would just have believed self-report scores.

I think Corbett thought he had this race sewn up.  He could have put away Onorato early, but he didn't.

24, Male, GA-05

Likely Voter screen
If you just go with self-report, you find that almost everyone is planning to vote -- even though that isn't what happens.  The assumption is that people won't admit that they plan to skip voting, but they are also reluctant to lie about something that could be checked (like prior voting).  

Of course, it is possible that everyone who claims they plan to vote really is, and the others just don't answer in the first place...

[ Parent ]
Don't agree.
   In my experience, if people aren't planning to vote they will tell you.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Absolutely not
Most pollsters, including every internal pollster I've ever worked with, use a self-report to screen for LV's. They usually cut off at "probably" will vote early, then shift to "certain" to vote later. These hybrid LV systems, based on knowledge of the campaigns and interest in politics, are the outliers, although it is Gallup's long time gimmick. They tend toproduce very tight screens and severely reduce input from low info indies. Occasionally it works and is rarely embarrasingly far off, but in general is much worse than a carefully constructed self-report.  
[ Parent ]
NY-20 Siena Poll
Everyone here couldn't understand how Siena had such a huge shift, I just read on North Country Public Radio blog, quoting the head of Siena, Greenberg, saying that they switched likely voters models in between both polls, using now closer to the election a more stringent model. I only wonder which other polls if any were done with the new model.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
That would explain it
Also might call it into question. We shall see.
[ Parent ]
What were the new Siena results?

[ Parent ]
Murphy down 9
51-42.  
[ Parent ]
Are you kidding me?
That is utterly absurd. Especially at a time when polls are showing Cuomo and Gillibrand pulling away from their Republican opponents.  
[ Parent ]
WI-08 - PPP/DailyKos
Ribble 40, Kagen 37, 23% undecided.

http://www.dailykos.com/pollin...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Make up your minds people!

[ Parent ]
Seriously
and here's the one you've all been waiting for.  Ras on MD-SEN.  Mikulski 56, Wargotz 38.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Amazing that
the undecided column contains about equal numbers of every demographic they polled.
[ Parent ]
That's a lot of undecided one week out
I've had this one going R for a while.  But maybe Kagen can pull it off.
[ Parent ]
I just don't see that happening...
the validity of the "50% rule" is pretty dubious, but I'd be hard pressed to find an instance where an incumbent under 40 with a week out ended up winning.

But like you said, most have this district flipping, so nothing really changes.

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
Nate Silver at 538 has shot down the 50% rule
pretty effectively. It just doesn't hold up when examined.
[ Parent ]
Not sure that tells us much of anything
How can 40% have no opinion of Kagen?
[ Parent ]
It would make my night...
If Rep. Kagen sticks this out, that would be great. He and Reps. Perriello, Pomeroy, and Giffords are probably my favorite members of Congress.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
New Siena Polls
We're scheduled to get tomorrow morning 2 Siena polls, on NY-19 and NY-24, both with Siena's freshly updated likely voter model, late tonight we get 10 House polls from The Hill.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
How do they justify changing so late?

[ Parent ]
Went to a Feingold rally at my local UW collegeToday
Was about 50 people there, which considering the size of the room[and for that matter community] we were in probably not too bad. Hes a pretty entertaining guy and im happy i was able to find out it was happening only about two hours earlier. I think they said it was about his 5th campaign stop today. The weather today is pretty brutal too it is about 40F and raning with strong winds.

20, male, independent, WI-07.
Final DCCC ad buy smackdown coming through the wire!
some big buys so far:

AR-01: $538K
FL-25: $776K!  huge!

AZ-08: first time on air, $132K
CT-05: first time on air, $275K
FL-22: first time on air, $316K

looks like mostly coming out in alphabetical order, up to I

IL10: $591K
btw HI-01 was only $126K.  I think we have this district in hand or the FL-25/IL-10 money would be going here instead.
[ Parent ]
How expensive is advertising in the Honolulu media market?


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Pricey, I think, though someone can correct me if I'm wrong

[ Parent ]
IL-14: $527K
quite a battle brewing in this district
[ Parent ]
I'm just glad...
Rep. Costello doesn't appear to have a target painted on his back yet with just a week to go. But he's one of the potential upsets I'm worried about.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I pointed this out the other day
Costello's opponent hasn't even raised the amount required to file an FEC report for ($5,000), and she's crazy.
[ Parent ]
Gee, he dodged a bullet there...
I think Reps. Hare and Foster are probably goners, and Rep. Costello's district isn't radically different.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Costello's is more
reliably Democratic. Just not overwhelmingly so. And unlike Hare, who represents a similar, but slightly less Democratic district, Costello has been around for a while and has a better grip on the district.

Why do you think Foster is a goner? He's been tied in what little public polling is available, the DCCC isn't triaging him, and he has considerable resources and is a good fit for a district trending Democratic due to the moderating influence of Chicago and the relocation of liberal urbanites into Aurora, (I believe is the name of the major city at the edge of his district). Angry voters who don't like Hultgren will find it easier to vote for Foster since they have Brady and Kirk to blow off steam with.

Hare is also not justified. He has a neophyte, underfunded opponent. He could lose, but its no worse than a toss up and it will be close.  

[ Parent ]
He's in a largely rural Midwestern district
Those are the killing fields for Democrats this year. The DCCC is still in it, which is a positive sign, but unless the Illinois Democratic machine extends into Aurora, I'm not sure I see base turnout putting him across the finishing line.

Illinois, like Pennsylvania and Ohio, could go one of two ways: Democrats can either run a really stellar ground game, not least for the sake of at least one major statewide office, and organized labor could help them do rather well there, all things considered; or Democrats can stay home and let a horde of angry conservatives sweep a bunch of close races.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Actually...
IL-14 is 82% urban. IL-17 is 71% urban, (but Rock Island has apparently been hit hard by the recession and is dissatisfied with the Democratic party and Hare strikes people as a flat, unappealing machine politician, and on top of that he got caught unawares and is off to a late start trying to catch up).

IL-12 is 76% urban, but mainly that's East St. Louis, which is reliably Democratic.  

[ Parent ]
Is it?
That's a relief. I was looking at the map and it looked very exurban, but if that's not the case, that's definitely good; means the machine might get to work there.

How's the economy there? I know a lot of the urbanized industrial centers are shifting redder this cycle because of unemployment.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Seems mostly
suburban, service industry driven, lots of new growth from people relocating just outside Chicago. Chicago is becoming an ideopolis, a city that exports not only its economy but its politics to the suburbs, and that's made Illinois solidly Democratic.  
[ Parent ]
BTW, IL-17
was only $92K, compared to three times that last week.  They're either feeling really good or really bad about this one.
[ Parent ]
Hard to tell, isn't it?
I think if they were feeling really bad about it, though, they'd pull out entirely and toss the money into one of their firewalls. They haven't been shy about triage lately. But if they're optimistic, I don't see where that optimism is coming from.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
IN-09: $454K
About the same as last week.  This is a major battleground district, as spiderdem puts it, the firewall.
[ Parent ]
That money is going a long way too.
I've seen the DCCC ad attacking Todd Young on Social Security at least 5 times a day. The only thing I've seen from the Todd Young camp is campaign mail.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Is this a new ad?


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Louisville
media market isn't that much and covers most of the district. That will go far. Republicans have still spent more. I see Young ads all the time. Still them spending to me indicates Hill's RUMORED internal was probably accurate as they would not spend on him if he was down. Then again he's an incumbent who took a lot of tough votes, they probably promised they would spend on him.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
MA-10: $823K
Wow!  Going all in to win here in an expensive market.
[ Parent ]
They have a great ad...
They might as well make sure everyone sees it.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Not sure what to make of those new buys...
FL-22 is a race I think they now see as winnable, with West becoming a known (and disliked) commodity. CT-05 looks like one of the late additions to the stack of vulnerable districts, with the DCCC spending just enough money in an expensive market for me to be moderately but not deathly concerned. AZ-08 is a head-scratcher, with Rep. Giffords holding up well on the fundraising front; my guess is their internals show a dead heat and they're moving to dominate the airwaves out of Tucson for the final week in a bid to flip undecideds and Kelly leaners into the Democratic column.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
These districts
All had well-funded incumbents and no NRCC investment.  This looks like a final push at the end.  They may all be in good shape, maybe FL-22 is better than we think.
[ Parent ]
Relax.
   Those amounts say that the DCCC wants to stay on the air in the last week of those races.  I'm sure the DCCC is not stupid enough to think that they can win a toss-up by investing 150K in the last week.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
I'm going to disagree in the case of AZ-08...
Your point makes sense but for one thing: Rep. Giffords already has a media juggernaut running. She is the Arizonan version of Kirsten Gillibrand. I think that investment is the DCCC just topping off the tank before the final drive.

I'd rather be Giffords than Kelly right now, honestly.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
MI-09: $497K
Not a buy I really wanted to see.
[ Parent ]
Yeesh
That's a pretty sizable buy. On the one hand, I'm glad the DCCC is taking this race seriously; on the other hand, I really wish they didn't have to.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
NJ-03: $642K
OK, now you can worry about this one.
[ Parent ]
What is the NRCC spending?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Better question...
What's Karl Rove spending?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
NY-19: $409K
This one was promised yesterday, I think.
[ Parent ]
NH-02: $488K
Even bigger than last week.  They think they can win here.
[ Parent ]
Clearly after the scent...
Silver had this race firmly in the Republican column just a month ago. Kuster has really changed the dynamic here; hopefully some of the magic will work its way next door to NH-01.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Kuster
If she wins and goes on to hold the seat for a while, we'll be able to call this race Kuster's First Stand.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
NY-23: $431K
Double last week.
[ Parent ]
I'm taking that as a positive sign...
It's a conservative district, and the C.W. was that after Hoffman finally dropped out, Doheny would consolidate the base and win pretty comfortably. Clearly the DCCC is seeing it as a race worth investing in.

I hope Rep. Owens wins. I like Rep. Owens.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
DCCC smackdown cont.
PA-07: $702K

I've been predicting they are in OK shape here for a while.

PA-08: $544K

Ditto.

TX-17: $569K

Talked about this last night.  Edwards is not dead, Flores may be.

VA-11: $1080K

Holy crap.  I guess I shouldn't have scoffed at SSP making this a toss-up.

WA-03: $562K

Heavy investment continues here.

[ Parent ]
Any numbers from Oregon?
I like the big spending in all of those but VA-11, but it's not surprising.

I'm actually surprised by how lively Rep. Edwards is looking in TX-17. As I suggested a few days ago, I think he could be this cycle's Chris Shays.

And I think some of the WA-03 investment has something to do with getting Clark County Democrats out for Sen. Murray as well. That race is winnable, but I'm not sure it looks winnable enough to dump over half a million without the upballot effect being considered.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
OR-05: $355K
a slight downtick from last week.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
Looks pretty good, but still a tossup.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
DCCC round-up, Missing so far:
GA-02
MS-01
MS-04
NV-03
SC-05

maybe coming later, I don't know.

also no buy in VA-09 whole cycle.

[ Parent ]
Also
VA-02 and VA-05 look reduced from last week by about half.  MD-01 was increased.
[ Parent ]
Not sure how to read any of those omissions...
The NRSC pulled the plug on Heck a few days ago in NV-03, too. Why are the national campaign committees declaring truce in one of the most important districts of the election?

The DCCC has sounded a positive note about Rep. Bishop in GA-02 (his internals have looked very strong), and I don't think they'd be declaring defeat in SC-05 just a week after the DGA made its first investment in the Palmetto State, so I'm not sure what's going on there. MS-01 looks like triage, and MS-04 looks like a combination of triage and retaliation for Rep. Taylor's remarks about voting for Sen. McCain in 2008.

I'm just going to take a deep breath and trust that Rep. Van Hollen, one of the architects of the Democratic wave of 2008, knows what he's doing playing defense this time around.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I think they're fine in GA-02 and SC-05
MS-01 may be bad, MS-04 hard to tell.

NV-03 is confusing.  Maybe there is no ad space left to buy in Las Vegas!

[ Parent ]
GA-02 just came through, $257K
The rest probably will as well, they're just out of order.
[ Parent ]
SC-05 - $252K
NV-03 - $404K
MS-01 - $224K

No triage in any of those.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Okay, makes sense now
How does the size on the NV-03 buy compare to last week? I'm still puzzled over the NRCC retreat there.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Pretty much the same. Maybe a $10K increase.
I'm puzzled by the NRCC too.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
No spending in MS-04
to date at all.  Possible a guy like Taylor declined assistance, possible the DCCC is not all that worried.  He sure seems to need the help given his fundraising.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
MS-01, SC-05, NV-03 came through
Look reasonable. No MS-04 yet.
[ Parent ]
Don't hold your breath.
See directly above.  Has never been any spending here.  Taylor is not even listed on the DCCC's front page.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
With NV-03,
the feeling could be, from both sides, that the Senate race will pull one or the other over the finish line. Plus, a majority of votes will probably already be cast by Friday.
[ Parent ]
PPP's got
Texas, Maine, and Wisconsin scheduled for Thursday evening.

Expect the last Field Poll Thursday or Friday as well.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

eMeg OWNED by NPR
I'm very busy at work but just had to write this--was just in the car and Meg Whitman got totally owned in this NPR interview.

The reporter (Mechelle Norris, maybe?) just hammered away at her lack of qualifications, had her apologizing and taking "accountability" for her lack of even bothering to vote, admitting she was a very flawed candidate and that people were unhappy with their choices.

eMeg made a valiant effort to stay on-message, but she. got. owned. Honestly, that's what happens when you basically try to avoid the press and wage an air war--it means you're weak and unaccustomed to answering questions when you actually have to go up against a competent reporter. NPR FTW!  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

My ex got me into NPR
Bout the only positive thing he left me with, heh.
[ Parent ]
Black Republican PAC makes 2 IEs
One for a radio ad for Frazier, the other for a radio ad for Tim Scott.
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b...
I'm not surprised that Allen West isn't included.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Here's a question...
If any of these black Republican candidates (I count Frazier in CO-07, West in FL-22, Scott in GA-08, and Lollar in MD-05) win - and I think Scott is probably favored and Frazier and West are just slight underdogs - will they try to join the Congressional Black Caucus?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
West
West has said he won't, but also, some in the CBC has said they wouldn't have him, anyway.  They did take Franks; Watts never tried to join.  If all three of these guys win, it could be interesting.  I have read that they may just rename the CBC the CDBC and thus not have to let any of these guys join.
I think Scott indicated a desire to join if he won, but I can't remember where I read that.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I'm sorry...
Tim Scott is in SC-01. It's Austin Scott in GA-08.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Austin Scott is black?
I hadn't realized. That certainly makes Jim Marshall's job a little more challenging.  
[ Parent ]
No.
   Austin Scott is a white dude.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
I was wondering..

[ Parent ]
Nope, my error.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Whoops
Whoops, I'm wrong about Tim Scott

Tim Scott will likely change the fact that there are no African-American Republicans in Congress, but don't automatically count on him to join the Congressional Black Caucus when he does.

"I've thought about it," the South Carolina congressional candidate said Monday during an interview on Capitol Hill with The Daily Caller. "But I haven't come to a solid decision. I'm probably leaning against it."

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2010/07...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Also wrong
Wrong about West too; I had him mixed up with Scott.  He does want to join:

Allen West, who is running against incumbent Ron Klein in Florida, told the Daily Caller in a July interview that, if elected, he'd actively seek CBC membership. "I think I have every right to," said West, who has advocated for the dismantling of the departments of Education and Energy. "I would be in Congress, and I would be black, and so I should be able to sit with them and, again, bring a different perspective."

Here's a good article about all three cases...

http://www.theroot.com/views/c...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Scott in GA-08 is white
I think you mean in SC? And I think most of them, West for sure, is on record saying he is not interested in the CBC. No Republican has ever joined the CBC, IIRC.  
[ Parent ]
Former Representative Gary Franks, R-Connecticut was a member
He was in Congress from 1991-1997.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Hechk no...
The Republican grassroots and some of the establishment hate the CBC and see it as a racist organization.  Don't even make me go into most blacks feelings about black Republicans.  

Shorter answer--how can you join an organization that fundatmentally bows down to Rush, Beck, et.al? When I read comments on RedState about why most blacks are Dems, the usual answer is that we want a handout.  What a joke!

There is a black middle class.  People thought the Obamas were special but in some parts of DC, Atlanta, Chicago,NYC, they are normal.

That sentiment regarding our need for handouts is why Ehrlich could never really make headway into PG County because of the feeling among most blacks that the Republican party looks down on us.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

[ Parent ]
Apparently
You feel the same way about black Republicans as I do about gay Republicans.  :)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Exactly...
I cannot understand that either. I have two brothers both of them gay, well had two because one died from HIV/AIDs.  I still remember how St. Ronnie denied the existence of HIV basically.  Don't get me started...  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Not sure
Not sure if this ad is aimed at getting black support for their candidates, but FL-22 is less than 3% black - CO-07 has  twice as many black residents and SC-01 is over 20%.  Majority-minority district FL-23 is right next to FL-22 and the gerrymandering is horrific.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Yeah
that is just really bad (by bad, i guess its "good") gerrymandering. I was going to make a Florida redistricting map but i literally dropped my jaw when i went down to south Florida. Its just astounding...

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
To be fair
There were two things going on there.  Part of it was to create a black district to satisfy the VRA (FL-23) and part to help keep E Clay Shaw Jr. in office (FL-22).  But, yea, South Florida is crazy.  The 23rd goes right down the railroad track in a narrow band.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
NV-03: Powerful ad against Heck.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Clinton Helping Out Tim Bishop
I got an e-mail today inviting me to the Stony Brook campus for an event involving Bill Clinton and Tim Bishop. I'm tempted to go, because I've been in a shitty mood and I've always wanted to get a picture with Bill Clinton, but it's in the middle of the day and I don't think I can swing it.

But more importantly, is this a sign things are a lot worse than many are saying for Bishop? I'm not sure, but I'm leaning towards no because, while it's a slightly competitive race, there doesn't appear to be much polling on the district.

What do you guys think?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Well...
   I think it means you might be losing some sanity looking at the tea leaves.  Bill Clinton will campaign for any breathing Democrat.  Like Kendrick Meek.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
That's true, but
you'd think that he'd be spending more of his time campaigning for someone else, someone who might be more vulnerable. Then again, he didn't campaign for Meek that long ago, so I think you are right in that I am losing my sanity...well, maybe not my sanity, but certainly perspective.

I guess I should start thinking the Democrats will lose 150 seats. That way, if they hold the House, I will be thrilled, and if they do as badly as some predict and lose 90-something seats, I will be glad they didn't do worse. Nah, only kidding...sort of.

Seriously now, I guess I shouldn't care if Bishop is in serious danger of losing. If that's the case, the House is certainly gone, or something bizarre is going on, and we are simply watching a true massacre.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure I'm going to go
Hoping to bring some people with me, too.  I've actually never been to a rally before, so pretty excited.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
The Dem strategy,
as discussed in the NYT yesterday, is to protect a "firewall" in MA, CT, NY, down to Philly. So I think that's what we're seeing happen here.
[ Parent ]
Which article
are you referring to? And a "firewall" in what sense? Is this a sign the losses are going to be massive?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Here you go...
Republicans focused their efforts heavily on the Ohio River Valley, hoping to win back a trove of districts in Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Democrats were trying to build a firewall in the Northeast, including seats in Connecticut, New York and Pennsylvania, where a strong performance could keep Republicans from repeating their 1994 sweep, when they captured 54 seats.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10...

[ Parent ]
Perhaps a distraction...
but what do people think of the Tea Party-ish Rob Ford winning the Toronto mayoral election with 47% of the vote, against the Liberal candidate, Smitherman, who received 36%, and the 12% that went to the New Democrat, Pantalone (who was essentially running on the incumbent's record)? Many were fiercely opposed to Ford, and he seems to be very controversial (see his Wikipedia page for some of his racist, homophobic, and anti-poor comments, as well as numerous other scandals as a city councillor), but his anti-government message somehow won. Are the effects of the Tea Party reaching to the Great White North? Really, this is a guy who stated that "(AIDS) is very preventable," and that "if you are not doing needles and you are not gay, you wouldn't get AIDS probably, that's bottom line," as well as "Those Oriental people work like dogs. They work their hearts out ... that's why they're successful in life. ... I'm telling you, Oriental people, they're slowly taking over, because there's no excuses for them. They're hard, hard workers." And there's A LOT more weird/insane stuff where that came from.

Radical or something, WA-07
Toronto has disappointed me...
I'd like to see Mayor-elect Ford make those statements in Vancouver. He'd be gibbeted.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Toronto
I happen to be a Canadian as well as an American, visit Canada quite often, I can tell you one thing, what's happening in US now, happened in Canada a few years earlier and it's peaking now, if Harper would've called an election now, he would've had a big majority government.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
The polls do not show that
They do not even show that he would get a majority.
[ Parent ]
Reactionaryism knows no boundaries
Social, economic, cultural.  When the middle class is uneasy, they will respond to reactionary appeals.  Always have.  Particularly when they don't hear a convincing alternative.
[ Parent ]
This is what I'd be inclined to believe
If only because it makes me most hopeful for reasonableness prevailing.

Radical or something, WA-07
[ Parent ]
Ca-Sen: Fiorina Hospitilization, Does it matter?
Do ya'll think Fiorina being hospitalized will move the race in one direction or the other? I could see it doing one of two things: Helping Boxer by questioning if Fiorina is healthy enough for office, b/c that was a question when she announced. It could also draw attention to Fiorina's cancer, which many people are unaware of, and help her with women.  
At this point I think
it will have little effect on the outcome of the race. It would seem people have made up their minds for the most part.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Well, I surely don't think it hurts Fiorina
I will say that I'd wager a majority of Californians were unaware of Fiorina's breast cancer battle (only during the primary kick-off did she really discuss it), and, given what seems to be a general perception that she's a rather frigid, cold personality, this could warm Fiorina up in some eyes, or at least make her a somewhat more sympathetic figure.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I agree
It probably won't make a difference at this stage, but I definitely don't think it hurts her.

Hope she makes a complete recovery soon either way.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
She should
Its actually very common among women who have reconstructive breast surgery to get an infection. It is usually a one day hospital stay, so she could be out tomorrow.  
[ Parent ]
I think it hurts her...
Yes, she will gain sympathy for her situation, but that doesn't translate to votes.  The health of elected officials is generally a very big deal to voters (which is why JFK and FDR his their health problems), and can lead to doubt whether she would be up for the job, especially since her poll numbers are already starting to go sour.

It won't be a big issue--it won't devastate her campaign, but if a voter already had concerns about Fiorina, this just adds another one to the list, so it doesn't help her, IMO.

[ Parent ]
I disagree...
Health concerns tend to be an issue mostly for executive-level positions: president, governor. If anything, I bet this makes her more sympathetic to voters. Fortunately, it doesn't sound too serious.
[ Parent ]
Like someone here said
And someone in the media-IDK who- said it humanizes her. Boxer has created this image of a cold, evil woman with no heart. This shows that she is a real person who deals with the problems that everyone else deals with, and also draws attention to her life struggles, which should help her with female voters.  
[ Parent ]
In a close race,
I think it would help her. But the race seems to have moved dramatically toward Boxer over the past week. So while this could help her marginally, I doubt it will make all that much difference.
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Do you think Angle-oids trying to accuse Reid of vote fraud will hurt her?
http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...
It just seems so stupid.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I've also noticed some of the later comments are from first-time commenters
meaning that she linked it to her FB and twitter, so her supporters are bleeding over there and trolling.  Just click their names you'll see what I mean.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It's a gambit, of course
I think both camps right now figure few people are going to change their mind; there aren't a ton of undecideds left in full ballot tests (although in a race this close, they could certainly make a difference). They're gunning for base turnout, and bringing up ACORN is red meat for the conservative base voters.

It just seems stupid as hell, because of course the Republicans are going to be out to vote for Angle, and independents might just end up rolling their eyes.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
This time they're scapegoating the SEIU.
I also find it distasteful that the lawyer constatnly refers to the SoS by his party affiliation, implying he's in the tank with Reid.  Then she whores for money to buy lawyers to watch the polls.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I also think that this distracts her supporters.
Instead of doing GOTV, they'll be busy acting all paranoid.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Don't you think
that Reid is going to get a decent minority (I mean like 10 to 12%) of Rs?

I mean, not that I think all those endorsements from Rs is going to sway anyone, but you have to figure they represent the feelings of a small slice of GOP voters in Nevada.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
The conventional wisdom is...
...Reid will win more crossovers than Angle.  I would guess Angle's crossovers are in the mid-to-high single digits, Reid's in the 10-15 range.

Angle will win indies.  The totality of polling over all these months signals that a dead heat would involve Angle winning indies by about 10 points, offset by Reid's larger share of crossovers and a slight Democratic turnout edge.

I have a feeling we'll have a good sense of Reid's chances by this weekend, since early voting will be done and we'll know the partisan breakdown.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
What do you think about the Angle lawyer's accusations?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Definitely wouldn't want to put money
on it, but I really do think Reid is more likely to win.

I generally don't go against public polling, but there is a history of underpolling Democratic performance in Nevada (happened in both '04 and '08, two quite different cycles)and also because of the "tea leaves" - all of Reid's high profile R endorsements, the leaked private polling numbers from both sides, etc.

Again, I don't feel that confident about this prediction at all, but I do think Reid is more likely to win.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Of all the news today,
much of it not-so-great, Democratic underperformance in Clark County yesterday hit me the hardest. I doubt we can afford to lose more ground in the early NV vote this week.
[ Parent ]
Won't It Still Boil Down.....
.....to how the late voters break on election day?  I've never quite been able to figure out why people believe anything at all can be discerned by early voting since it's almost exclusively partisans who vote before election day.
[ Parent ]
No, not in this one, there are hardly any undecideds and...
...it really comes down to how many partisans each side is able to get out there.

And a LOT can be discerned from Nevada early voting because what's made public is much more detailed than other states, and comparative data from 2006 and 2008 is comprehensive and useful.

The Reid campaign is even more sophisticated, they're going to track extremely closely who is voting and who hasn't.  They know who their supporters and likely supporters are and have a good sense day-to-day of what still needs to be done.

We're going to have a good sense of the state of the race by the time early voting is over simply from the total numbers and percentages of Democrats and Republicans who have voted.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah,
he'll get at least a few more percentage points of crossover support than she will. How big that margin is could decide the race.
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Washoe County Early Vote:
Total = 5877
Dems = 2369 (40.3%)
Repubs = 2629 (44.7%)
Not bad.  Same as yesterday.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I wonder how Dems do on election day in NV.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Week 2 better than Week 1 so far
Dems are down 3.19% so far in week 2 (Sat - Tue) compared to  down 6.89% in Week 1 (Sat - Fri). In raw votes Dems lost Week 1 by 2,112 votes. Through the first 4 days of week 2 they are down 550 votes. If the Dems can keep the overall margin in Washoe county to under 5% ( currently -5.56%) they should be OK.

BTW has anyone seen any Absentee Ballot numbers from Washoe county? I had read at the start of early voting that Dems had the edge in Absentee's requested but have not seen anything since.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
As a percentage of the two-party vote,
that's:

Today
Dem: 47.4%
Rep: 52.6%

Total Before Today
Dem: 46.7%
Rep: 53.3%

Seems pretty much par for the course for Washoe. Let's hope Clark pulled through today, making up for a weaker showing yesterday.

[ Parent ]
SurveyUSA - KY-03: Yarmuth 50, Lally 46
http://www.courier-journal.com...

Does anyone really think this race is close?  This margin is the same as Lally's internal from yesterday.  SurveyUSA is ridiculous.

Didn't Braun have Yarmuth up
like 20+ points a couple days ago?

Doesn't mean that poll is more accurate. But I think it reflect how volatile these House polls can be.  

[ Parent ]
Well this certainly
gives some perspective to some of SUSA's other polls today, like VA-9 and CA-20, seeing as they had Yarmuth leading by a ton the last few times out.  

I'm halfway between jumping off the proverbial bridge and calling bullshit on most of the polls we've seen today.  I think I'll know within the next 24 hours which way I decide to go.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Nope


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
LA-02: Richmond leads 49-32
From Anzalone Liszt Research:
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
The Hill Polls are out
Its ugly. Spratt, Kanjo, Edwards, MArshall, Boyd down big. Salazar down 4.
One bright spot for Dems: Pomeroy leads by 1.
http://thehill.com/house-polls...
let's separate the expeted from the unexpected
Not that interesting at this point: PA-11, FL-2, TX-17, IA-3

That leaves:

Huge huge "ouch"es for Dems: SC-5, GA-8

Not where Dems want to be but could be worse: IN-9, CO-3

Not where GOP hoped to be but could be worse: SD-AL, ND-AL

Fair?

[ Parent ]
If Salazar
is in your "could be worse" category, why not Kanjo? It's basically the same margin, plus PA-11 is historically Democratic.
[ Parent ]
Hill Polls
Polls from The Hill

GOP leading...
CO-03
Tipton 47
Salazar 43

FL-02
Southerland 50
Boyd        33

PN-11
Barletta  48
Kanjorski 43

TX-17
Flores  52
Edwards 40

Dem leading...

IN-09
Hill    46
Young   44

IA-03
Boswell  49
Zaun     37

ND-AL
Pomeroy 45
Berg    44

SD-AL
Herseth Sandlin 45
Noem            42

A split decision with both sides leading in four races.  I still tend to thing the GOP gets ND, never been sure about SD due to the speeding tickets.  But IN-09 for sure will give us the best early benchmark as to how the night goes.

http://thehill.com/house-polls...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

You forgot the two best news for GOP
Are you trying to be nice to Dem readers here? That's nice but... I can take it:

Jim Marshall trails by 13% in GA-08.

And... Spratt trails 49-39 in SC-05.

[ Parent ]
Blame
Blame my cat Dexter.  He keeps trying to climb onto my laptop!  Probably closed a couple of windows with his paws.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Cute
I've had the problem may times before, most notably when my cat sent a half-written college admissions essay. Fortunately, the admissions officer was a cat owner as well and understood fully!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
That's adorable
I understand totally though. Ko-chan always decides to chill right in front of the monitor when I'm trying to read SSP and I have to pull his furry little butt out of the way all the time.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Spratt *forgot*
how to campaign this year. (similar to Gene Taylor, but differently too) I think he's a bit out of it, and he filed for reelection after he announced he had Parkinsons. He was at the center of the whole budget fiasco, and then he said that debate cameras weren't allowed at the debate? (Is he slowing down?)

Marshall.. I have no idea what he's done wrong. There's no logical reason that Marshall would go down except the generic Republican wave. Is Austin Scott a real good candidate? I wonder what RuralDem thinks.

Contrary to popular belief, as I already mentioned, Spratt is not going down because of a Republican wave, and if Taylor goes down, its for a different reason.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
GA-08 is a more Republican place than GA-02 or GA-12
They had Max Burns in Congress for quite a while, and Marshall only narrowly defeated him in 2004 and 2006. It's ancestrally Democratic turf, but less so than some other southern districts. But other than that, I'll wait for RuralDem's analysis.

Lane Evans of IL-17 dropped out of his 2006 race due to Parkinson's, triggering a special primary (or perhaps convention?) that his close friend Phil Hare won. Perhaps Spratt should have followed Evans' model, although he and his seniority may have been the Democrats' best hope there in a cycle like this.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
GA-08
Is an interesting race. austin scott had been running for Lt. Gov in the primary against incumbent Republican Casey Cagle, but Johhny Isakson convinced him to drop out and run for congress. The race was never considered top tier until late summer/early fall, and now Scott looks headed towards a big win.  
[ Parent ]
Missed two
Somehow I missed two of the races, and they are not good for Dems

GA-08
Scott    50
Marshall 37

SC-05
Mulvaney 49
Spratt   39

SC-05 surprised me, that Spratt is down by those sorts of numbers.  I had expected that to be a lot closer.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Luckily Penn-Shoen aren't great pollsters.
They are part of the reason why Hillary lost steam in the primaries.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
SC-05
Spratt is the only Democrat in a deep south state running for re-election not in a VRA district to vote for HCR. Not surprising.  
[ Parent ]
I love how people here know these things off the top of their heads!
Also, if you count Florida north of Tampa, you get Boyd, Grayson, and Kosmas in that category, and all of them are likely to lose as well.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I generally
Don't count FL as the deep south, but your right. North of Tampa is similar to areas of AL and GA.  
[ Parent ]
Not just HCR, he voted for...
...the stimulus and cap-and-trade.

And my impression, perhaps mistaken but I doubt it, is that he didn't necessarily get whipped all that much to cast those votes.  I think Spratt might be a bit liberal at heart, and he couldn't go against his conscience on these votes.  But from his district, it costs him bigtime.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The Fact That Despite His Scandals.....
....Nathan Deal still leads by so much in Georgia was a good indication of how huge of a year Republicans are poised to have in the state this year.  Nobody should be surprised that the (D) next to Jim Marshall's name is hanging him.  Seems odds-on that Sanford Bishop could go down as well, and I'd really like to see current polls on John Barrow as well because I'm still less than confident about where things stand with him.
[ Parent ]
FWIW Nate....
... has Republicans favored in 7 of those 8 races (all but IA-03). If Democrats can split these districts 4-4 it would be a good thing for team blue.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Make that Rep's favored in 8 of 10
Damn you Dexter!

Sprat was a slight favorite on 538.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Pomeroy!!!!!!
YES!!!!!!

I don't know why people thought Edwards was coming back in TX-17 though. Nice to see Boswell is leading as well as Herseth Sandlin and Hill. Boyd is toast, and I hope Salazar can come back.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I'd Much Rather Hang Onto The Midwesterners.....
....especially Pomeroy and Herseth-Sandlin, than the Southerners.  Well, I shouldn't say that about Spratt.  He's been a very good Congressman from a state like South Carolina.  Jim Marshall has no value at all to us though and his district is likely to be unwinnable in two years anyway.
[ Parent ]
Technically so would I.
Off the top of my head, I'd like to see Rush, Jackson Jr, and Boswell replaced with other Democrats in the Midwest.

Pomeroy is great. My parents know him.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
My Guess Is This Will Be Boswell's Last Term....
Of course, I've been saying that for about eight years now but since Iowa is losing a Congressional seat, Boswell is poised for a faceoff with Tom Latham, most likely in a district where Latham keeps more of his turf than does Boswell.  In a neutral climate, I have a hard time believing Boswell, who's never really been at home in his post-2001 district boundaries, can beat Latham.  I gotta give Boswell credit for making Brad Zaun look like a total tool though.  I didn't think Boswell had that level of fight left in him.

Definitely like to see Rush go.  I've always liked Jesse Jackson, Jr., but if he turns out corrupt he's gotta go.

[ Parent ]
Rush sucks
I'm glad I'm not registered at college or else he'd be my representative. shudder. Toni Preckwinkle seems pretty good, maybe she'll run for the seat eventually.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
The DCCC...
They must be finding dramatically different numbers in GA-08, SC-05, FL-02, and TX-17. Taken at face value, those polls are really ugly.

Nice to see Democrats holding steady in the Dakotas, where they have two truly wonderful members of Congress facing challenges from lesser rivals.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Boyd is "Lee-Fisher toast"


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Well, those polls are funded by the Natural Gas
Alliance and produced by Mark Penn. Even the ones with good results for the Dems, don't fill me with confidence.

I do think we'll keep all of our seats in ND, SD, IA and MN though. IL, IN and WI make me nervous though.

[ Parent ]
My personal firewall...
If voters keep Reps. Schrader, Giffords, Hill, Kagen, Pomeroy, Perriello, Carney, and Owens in the House, and Keating, Hanabusa, and Kuster all win, I'm calling it a good night.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I think if Kagen wins, we are having an excellent
night. But, I agree on the rest of them being firewall. Are not including IL-10 and DE-AL in pick-ups?
[ Parent ]
Those are pickups, and on IL-10 even Charlie Cook moved it from tossup to lean Dem a week ago. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Not really that much worse than the other Hill poll dumps
Unexpected results in both directions, really.  Kind of doubt SC-05 is this bad.
[ Parent ]
If IN-9 stays Dem, then it quite possibly could be a not so bad night of the Democrats
With IN-2 looking like it will be a hold, IN-9 not falling would limit Republican gains in Indiana to just one, IN-8. IN-9 is the sort of seat Republicans need to pick up for a majority in the House.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Be A Heckuva Nice Way To Start The Evening.....
....of course it's almost certain to be so tight we won't have a call for a few hours after the polls close in Indiana.
[ Parent ]
Why in the world are the Dems spending in FL-02?
Boyd is done.  
[ Parent ]
Better than I expected
Since I'm projecting Dems to lose all of them, including Marshall and Spratt, except for Boswell.  And if things break right, Salazar and Kanjorski can pull their races out.
[ Parent ]
Latest PA-Sen tracking
Sestak recovers a bit, Toomey up 46-41.
And the bad news
Corbet 52
Onorato 38

http://www.mcall.com/news/loca...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Or is that the good news?
That's 9% more than the RCP average. Sample seems skewed GOP.
[ Parent ]
I was thinking the same thing
I still think Rep. Sestak can win here. It just depends on who shows up.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Only the Toomey number ever moves
Sestak has been stuck at 41-43 percent since these tracking polls began. Toomey, meanwhile, started at 41 and slowly climbed to 48 before dropping back today. That tells me that Toomey's support is soft, but that Sestak is not capitalizing on it and bringing former Toomey supporters into his camp. Fortunately for him, PA is not an early voting state, but he's running out of time to win over those soft Sestak voters.

Love the tracking poll--I wish the Denver Post or Chicago Tribune would do ones for Colorado and Illinois, other pure tossups. The early numbers and the constant polling in Nevada eliminate the need for a tracking poll there.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I wonder if the National climate...
... may actually be helping Pomeroy and Sandlin. I think both are personally popular but many moderates viewed a vote for them as a vote for Pelosi. If they think the Dems are going to lose the House regardless they may want to keep their "good" Democrat.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
The History Of These Two Candidates Has Been Divergent......
Pomeroy has tended to look as though he's in trouble in the past but has come out winning comfortably while Herseth-Sandlin has, at least in her 2004 special election, prevailed by a scant one-point after polls showing her leading by 11 points.  

Factor this against how messed up the polling was in the 2008 Presidential race in North Dakota and the lesson seems to be that polling the Dakotas is damn tough.  If nothing else, however, I look forward to another jarlid-tight South Dakota Congressional election and watching the returns trickle in little by little.  It's one of the most fun states in the nation to track close races.

[ Parent ]
I really doubt most voters think so strategically/grand-schemely...
... though I'm open to be convinced of the contrary.
[ Parent ]
LA: Lt. Gov Scott Angelle Switches Parties: D to R
He had been touted as a rising star in either party, and Dems tried very hard to recruit him to run in LA-03. This move is not a surprise for me, as he has used very conservative, anti-Obama rhetoric in the past. I have to wonder if he is preparing to restart his political future, after having served in cabinet level positions the last few years. He could be considering a run for SoS since the frontrunner to succeed him as Lt. Gov is Jay Dardenne, the current SoS. Angelle was appointed by Jindal when Mitch Landrieu resigned to become mayor of New Orleans.
http://www.bayoubuzz.com/buzz/...
Angelle is the 3rd Democratic state party official to leave the party this year. He is LA's first Republican Lt. Gov since Paul Harvey left office in 1992.  
My home state...
that is the reason why I really do not get there much anymore.  La needs a real turnaround. I heard that they are really trying to cut the budget for the public colleges.  Why would your first or second cut be education when your public education system is almost always last in everything?  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...
[ Parent ]
Not surprised (but read comments with interest)
BTW, despite Louisiana's still having almost 2:1 Democratic registration i was always amused by number of very conservative and anti-Obama commentaries from people, who are still registered Democratic in this state... IMHO, it's this state (with Mississippi and Alabama) that are the only ones with still considerable number of very conservative Democrats. All other are, generally, "modrenized"

P.S. When i say "very conservative" - i mean "very substantionaly to the right of Bobby Bright or Gene Taylor"...))

[ Parent ]
Only in Louisiana
Are Democrats conservative enough to give 30% of their vote to David Vitter, possibly more.  
[ Parent ]
Yes.
BTW - i know about Simone Champagne. Who was "the third" to switch parties?
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Clark County Early Voting Edges Higher
atdleft says that yesterday and today the mobile EV teams were in GOP strongholds and that they'll be elsewhere Wednesday to Friday.
http://redrock.co.clark.nv.us/...
Mobile units had ~350 less voters today than yesterday.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Afternoon Edition) | 450 comments

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